HomeMy WebLinkAboutCAO 09-22
PJ(KERJNG
Report to Council
Report Number: CAO 09-22
Date: June 27, 2022
From: Fiaz Jadoon
Director, Economic Development & Strategic Projects
Subject: Employment Land Strategy Review
-File: A-1440
Recommendation:
1.It is recommended that the Employment Land Strategy Review submitted by Dillon
Consulting Limited and Lorius and Associates, set out in Attachment 1 of this Report, be
received;
2.That the Employment Land Strategy Review dated June 2022, be endorsed in principle;
3.That staff be directed to investigate and implement the recommendations outlined in the
Employment Land Strategy Review; and
4.That the appropriate City of Pickering officials be authorized to take the necessary actions
as indicated in this report.
Executive Summary: At the Council meeting of May 24, 2022, staff brought Report CAO
07-22 to provide an update on the Employment Land Strategy Review and to seek feedback
from Council on the preliminary recommendations set out therein (Resolution #906/22).
In 2021, Economic Development & Strategic Projects and City Development staff retained
Dillon Consulting Limited and Lorius and Associates to conduct a land use review of
employment lands across City of Pickering with a focus on Seaton Employment Lands (also
referred to as the Innovation Corridor). The purpose of the study was to review the land uses,
and report on key findings associated with employment-related growth management issues
and opportunities for the City of Pickering. The study included stakeholder consultations with
the Region of Durham, the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (MMAH), and the Seaton
Landowners Group. A copy of the City of Pickering Employment Land Strategy Review, dated
June 2022, is provided as Attachment 1 to this Report.
The policies of the Central Pickering Development Plan (CPDP) have an aggressive target for
employment within the Seaton Employment Lands. Achieving the target of 18,800 jobs in
Seaton on these employment lands will require significant major office development. The
remaining 11,700 jobs target is attributed to populated -related employment in Seaton. Since
the approval of the CPDP in 2006, and extension of services to the Seaton Employment
Lands, there has been little interest in standalone office development. In fact, the current
Growth Plan now directs major office development to strategic growth areas, with higher order
transit.
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Subject: Employment Land Strategy Review Page 2
In order to protect the high employment target, many uses that are more land extensive
(requiring outdoor storage), or low job generating uses (such as logistics) are not permissible.
The CPDP indicates that the goals, objectives, policies, and accompanying schedules, shall be
reviewed by MMAH every five years. The CPDP was last reviewed and amended in 2012, but
the amendment did not examine or revise land uses for the employment areas.
The Employment Lands Strategy Review (ELSR) Report, as set out in Attachment 1, identifies
three options for consideration. The options include:
1.requesting the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing to amend the CPDP to permit a
broader range of employment uses;
2.requesting a Minister’s Zoning Order for the Seaton Employment Lands that permits a
broader range of employment uses; and
3.amending the Pickering Official Plan (and zoning) to establish a target-based policy
framework.
A target-based approach would specify the conditions or performance characteristics under
which the broader range of uses would be permitted. Consistent with Options 1 & 3 above, the
recommendation outlined in the ELSR Report is to commence the process to amend the
CPDP, and concurrently, amend the Pickering Official Plan to establish a target-based policy
framework that would allow a broader range of uses, while maintaining conformity with the
CPDP.
In conjunction with the findings of the ELSR Report, staff recommend Council endorse the
Employment Land Strategy Review in principle. Upon authorization, staff will investigate the
next steps including, but not limited to, engagement with regional and provincial governments,
fiscal impact on regional development charges, identification of performance targets, and
reviewing zoning by-law options. Staff will report back to Council on the progress of the
implementation of the recommendation.
Financial Implications: Not applicable to this report.
Discussion: Dillon Consulting Limited and Lorius and Associates, have been retained to
undertake a study to review and assess constraints and opportunities for future employment
growth on designated employment lands throughout the City, and in Seaton particular ly. The
purpose of the report is to review current employment area zoning and policies, and
recommend changes, as necessary.
The policies of the CPDP indicate that the goals, objectives, policies and accompanying
schedules shall be reviewed every five years by the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing.
The purpose of the review is to assess the relevance and currency of the plan, including the
scope of coverage of the Development Planning Area, in light of the changing market,
demographic, social, environmental, and economic conditions within Central Pickering and the
Greater Toronto Area. The last CPDP amendment was nearly 10 years ago, and it did not
examine land uses for the Employment Lands. The amendment, among other matters, sought
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Subject: Employment Land Strategy Review Page 3
to clarify the population and employment forecasts in the Central Pickerin g Development Plan,
and the intent that these forecasts are to be used for the purposes of planning to 2031.
The ELSR Report also provides a breakdown of the required employment density to achieve
the current targets for Seaton, which anticipates that the Seaton lands capture 50 percent of
the regional urban employment area major office employment. Under this first scenario, in
order to achieve the forecast target of 18,800 jobs on Seaton Employment Lands, the overall
density that would need to be achieved in Seaton is 74 jobs per hectare. This density is high ,
relative to many other competing employment areas in the GTHA . Achieving this density would
likely need to include a substantial component of campus-style integrated industrial, office, or
other multi-purpose development, which are somewhat higher in density than logistics.
The second scenario analysis illustrates the employment yield on the Seaton lands under a
somewhat less optimistic set of expectations for major office growth and employment land job
density. It anticipates that the Seaton lands accommodate a reduced share of the total
Regional office forecast (30 percent as opposed to 50 percent). Employment land job yields
are estimated at the average foreca st density of 32 jobs per net hectares. At the Regional
average office forecast density of 32 jobs per net ha, the resulting employment land yiel ds are
approximately 7,500 jobs to 2031. Overall employment yields under Scenario 2 are
approximately 10,480 jobs at full development. In order to implement considerations in
Scenario 2, an amendment to the CPDP would be required to reduce the overall job targets
from 1 job per 2 residents to a more realistic number that reflects the current economic
context.
Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that action be taken to address the gaps
and revise the vision for Seaton Employment Lands. At the present time, the Region is
required, through the Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR) of its Official Plan, to allocate
sufficient jobs to Seaton to implement the current CPDP requirements. Based on consultation
conducted to-date, there appears to be agreement that the targets and vision of the CPDP are
outdated and overdue for review. There are a number of options the City can consider in order
to foster an environment that is better able to respond to the economic and market conditions
and realities of today.
The first option for consideration is to request to amend the CPDP. The last amendment to the
CPDP occurred in 2012 -nearly 10 years ago. With the policy direction in the CPDP indicating
it should be reviewed in 5-year intervals, this review needs to be expedited. However,
preliminary discussions with the Province indicate that they would not be in a position to review
the CPDP in the near future. As noted above, this poses a challenge in that the Region will be
required to carry the numbers and targets of the CPDP as part of their current L and Needs
Assessment and MCR process, resulting in an underestimation of the amount of new
Employment Land is needed in the Region. MCRs are required to be completed every 10
years. In advance of the next Regional MCR, it would also be beneficial for the Province,
Region and City to work together to prepare a draft updated CPDP foundatio nal study to
inform the formal update of the CPDP.
A potential outcome from reviewing the CPDP could be to request that the CPDP be repealed
in its entirety, allowing the policies of the Provincial Growth Plan, the Durham Regional Official
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Subject: Employment Land Strategy Review Page 4
Plan and City’s Official Plan to dictate growth in Seaton. This option was brought forward
during the City’s stakeholder consultation, and also raised at the May 2022 Council meeting.
Official Plan Amendment 22, which implemented policies in the Pickering Official Plan to reflect
the CPDP, coupled with the Seaton Zoning Bylaw, are a more recent and comprehensive
planning framework to facilitate both residential and employment growth in Seaton . If the
CPDP were revoked, the City could revise its Official Plan policies and zoning by-law to reflect
current market demand.
The second option is to request a Minister’s Zoning Order (MZO) for the Seaton Employment
Lands. The Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing has the authority to make a (Zoning)
Order to govern land uses with areas subject to the Order. The MZO would set specific
requirements for new development and can be used to control land use in any area of the
province, regardless of the underlying, regional or local municipal official plan designation.
There is no set process for requesting a MZO, and they are issued by the Minister at their
discretion. This could be in the form of a Council resolution and request in writing. A MZO
could be used to expand the range of permitted uses, zoning requirements and, potentially,
targets associated with certain lands in the Seaton Employment Area.
Recognizing the time constraints for a formal review and update of the CPDP, a third potential
option for the City to explore would be to amend the City’s Official Plan to introduce policies
that could open the door for considering some opportunities for employment uses that are
currently not permitted, where it can demonstrate a set of established criteria can be met. Of
course, the amendments would still be required to comply with the CPDP.
Based on the findings, the ELSR recommends that a hybrid of commencing the process to
amend the CPDP, and concurrently amending the City’s Official Plan be implemented. It will be
critically important for the Province, Region and City to work together. The City should take the
lead, and work with the Region to complete a foundational study to inform the CPDP update .
Additionally, while the CPDP is being updated, the City should prepare an interim Official Plan
Amendment (OPA) to set in place a more flexible policy framework that continues to comply
with the CPDP. Introducing some new policies through an OPA at the local level, would
provide that interim relief while the CPDP is updated to align with other Provincial plans and
policies, and to better reflect current market conditions. Ongoing discussions with both the
Province and the Region should continue in order to advance this.
Staff recommend endorsing the findings and recommendations within the report in principle.
Staff will investigate the next steps, including but not limited to, engagement with regional and
provincial governments, impact on regional development charges, identifying specific
performance targets, and reviewing zoning by-law options. All efforts will be considered within
the context of a joint/partnership effort between the Province, Region and the City.
Attachments:
1.Employment Land Strategy Review
June 27, 2022 CAO 09-22
Subject: Employment Land Strategy Review Page 5
Prepared By:
Original Signed By:
Approved/Endorsed By:
Original Signed By:
Laraib Arshad
Senior Economic Development Officer
Fiaz Jadoon, Ec.D., CEcD, MPM
Director, Economic Development &
Strategic Projects
Original Signed By:
Catherine Rose
Chief Planner, City Development
LA:la
Recommended for the consideration
of Pickering City Council
Marisa Carpino, M.A.
Chief Administrative Officer
Original Signed By:
Attachment #1 to Report CAO 09-22
City of Pickering
Employment
Land Strategy
Review
Final Report
June 2022
Dillon Consulting Limited and
Lorius and Associates
Table of Contents
1.0 Introduction 4
1.1 Report Purpose & Process ........................................................................................... 4
1.2 Organization of Report ................................................................................................ 6
2.0 Economic Context 7
2.1 Overview of Pickering Economy and Employment Base ............................................. 7
2.2 Key Trends & Targets ................................................................................................... 8
2.3 Regional Employment Forecast 2021 -2051 ............................................................. 10
2.4 Summary and Takeaways .......................................................................................... 14
3.0 Policy & Regulatory Context 15
3.1 Provincial Policy ......................................................................................................... 15
3.2 Regional Policy Context ............................................................................................. 23
3.3 Local Policy and Regulatory Context.......................................................................... 31
3.4 Past Studies Completed for the City .......................................................................... 55
3.5 Summary of Policy Context and Gaps ........................................................................ 63
4.0 Trends in Employment Land Development 65
4.1 Economic Trends in Relation to COVID-19 ................................................................ 65
4.2 Trends in Land Use and Building Space ..................................................................... 67
4.3 Growth Trends and Observations .............................................................................. 71
4.4 Summary of Observations ......................................................................................... 77
5.0 Demand and Supply Analysis 79
5.1 Employment Growth Outlook by Type ...................................................................... 79
5.2 Market Characteristics and Competitiveness: How Well Suited is Pickering to
Compete for New $?.................................................................................................. 80
5.3 Land Need: How much Land is Required to Accommodate Growth? ....................... 81
5.4 Land Supply Profile .................................................................................................... 89
6.0 Summary of Land Use Challenges and Opportunities 100
6.1 The original plan for Seaton’s employment lands has not been reassessed since
its’ inception nearly 15 years ago ............................................................................ 100
6.2 Options for Consideration ....................................................................................... 102
6.3 Recommendations and Conclusion ......................................................................... 106
List of Figures
Figure 2-1: Employment Activity, 2001-2051 (Source: Regional GMS Employment Strategy, Figure
7-1) ......................................................................................................................................... 12
Figure 3-1: City of Pickering Urban System ............................................................................................. 33
Figure 3-2: South Pickering Urban Area Neighbourhoods ...................................................................... 35
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
Dillon Consulting Limited & Lorius and Associates Final Report-May 2022
Figure 3-3: Seaton Urban Area Neighbourhoods .................................................................................... 36
Figure 3-4: Proposed Land Use Concept for Seaton Employment Lands (Source: Hemson
Figure 4-3: Blume Canada Automated Warehouse with Showroom and Training Centre
Figure 4-5: Durham Region Non-residential Development by Major Sector (2011-2019) (Source:
Figure 4-6: Employment Land Absorption 2011 – 2019 (Source: Durham Growth Management
Figure 5-1: Durham Region Forecast of Employment by Type (2011-2019) (Source: Durham
Figure 5-2: Preliminary Forecast by type and Policy Area (Regional GMS – Employment Strategy
Consulting Ltd, 2007) ............................................................................................................. 59
Figure 3-5: Seaton Area Servicing System Plan (Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd, 2015) ....................... 62
Figure 4-1: IRONWORKS Mixed-use Commercial Industrial Development (Vancouver, BC) .................. 70
Figure 4-2: Amazon Warehouse, Logistics, and Delivery Facility (Cambridge, ON) ................................ 70
(Mississauaga, ON)................................................................................................................. 71
Figure 4-4: Durham Region Non-residential Development by Major Sector (2011-2019) ..................... 73
Durham Growth Management Study: Land Needs Analysis) ................................................ 75
Study: Land Needs Analysis) .................................................................................................. 76
Growth Management Study: Land Needs Analysis) .............................................................. 80
Technical Report, 2021) ......................................................................................................... 83
Figure 5-3: Summary of Region Wide Employment Area Land Needs to 2051....................................... 83
Figure 5-4: Regional Employment Areas by OP Land Use Designation ................................................... 91
Figure 5-5: Regional Employment Areas by Development Status........................................................... 92
List of Tables
Table 3-1: 2031 Population & Employment Growth Forecasts by Seaton Urban Area
Neighbourhood ...................................................................................................................... 37
Table 3-2: City of Pickering Employment Area Land Use Permissions .................................................... 40
Table 3-3: City of Pickering Employment Zone Provisions ...................................................................... 48
Table 4-1: Summary of Non-Residential Development Activity by Major Sector ................................... 71
Table 5-1: Summary of Estimated Absorption to 2051 ........................................................................... 86
Table 5-2: Summary of Assumed Demand for Urban Municipalities ...................................................... 87
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
Dillon Consulting Limited & Lorius and Associates Final Report-May 2022
Table 5-3: Summary Updated Absorption Rates Compared with Prior Absorption Estimates from
2007/2015 Hemson Reports .................................................................................................. 88
Table 5-4: Land Areas for Calculation ...................................................................................................... 95
Table 5-5: Estimated Density Required to Achieve in force Employment Targets ................................. 96
Table 5-6: Estimated Development Yields at Lower Employment Density ............................................. 97
Table 1: City of Pickering Designated Employment Lands by Status..................................................... 114
Table 2: Seaton Lands Designated Employment Lands by Status ......................................................... 114
Table 3: City of Pickering Vacant Employment Land Supply ................................................................. 114
Table 4: City of Pickering-Seaton Lands Vacant Employment Land Supply.......................................... 115
Table 5: City of Pickering Vacant Employment Land Supply by Parcel Size .......................................... 115
Table 6: Seaton Vacant Employment Land Supply by Parcel Size ......................................................... 115
Table 7: City of Pickering Occupied Employment Land Analysis ........................................................... 116
Table 8: City of Pickering Underutilized Employment Land Analysis .................................................... 116
Table 9: Seaton Underutilized Employment Land Analysis ................................................................... 116
Table 10: City of Pickering Constrained Employment Lands Analysis ................................................... 117
Table 11: Seaton Constrained Employment Lands Analysis .................................................................. 117
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1.0 Introduction
1.1 Report Purpose & Process
Over the next three decades, the employment base in Durham Region is forecast to grow
significantly, increasing from an estimated 242,000 jobs in 2021 to 460,000 jobs in 2051, in
accordance with A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2019, as
amended in 2020 (Growth Plan). In the City of Pickering, on the Seaton Lands, additional
employment forecasts are set out in the Central Pickering Development Plan (CPDP), which is a
provincial plan that establishes an ambitious target of 30,500 jobs by 2031, 18,800 of which
must be provided on the Seaton Employment lands; and, 35,000 jobs over the longer term. The
CPDP also includes a requirement that approximately one job for every two residents be
provided in Seaton. The Growth Plan forecasts that must be used (at a minimum) for long-range
planning: the use of lower-forecasts is not permitted and not relevant for conformity purposes;
and, revisions to the targets set out in the CPDP cannot be made without an amendment to that
Plan by the Province.
Achieving the Growth Plan forecasts and CPDP targets will require approximately double the
Region’s historic employment growth rate and is considered “aspirational” from a growth
management perspective.1 The City of Pickering is expected to play a significant role in
accommodating future employment growth, especially on the Seaton Employment Area lands
which are extremely well-suited to accommodate new business investment over the period to
2051.
Durham Region, as an upper tier municipality is responsible for distributing both employment
and population growth to lower tier municipalities. As required by the Province, Durham Region
is currently in the process of completing the necessary background work as part of the
Municipal Comprehensive Review/ Growth Management Strategy (MCR/ GMS) to establish a
long term vision for growth for the Region to the 2051 planning horizon2 . As part of the Region’s
MCR, an examination of population and employment growth projections and a Land Needs
Analysis forms the basis for long range planning for the Region and the lower-tier municipalities.
1 Employment Strategy Technical Report -Chapter 3 of the Region of Durham Growth Management
Study: Land Needs Analysis (September 2021) prepared by Watson and Associates Economists Limited
and Urban Strategies inc. (page 66)
2 In the absence of knowing the outcome of the Region’s MCR process and preferred growth scenario,
it is important to note that this review and associated recommendations represent a snapshot in time
and do not consider implications of potential urban boundary expansions for employment uses.
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Following the completion of the Region’s MCR/ GMS, local municipalities will need to undertake
a similar exercise at the local level in order to implement Regional policies, including specific
allocations for both people and jobs to the 2051 planning horizon.
Given the changes in both the global and local economies, as well as updates to the land use
planning framework in Ontario, a review of the current employment area zones and policies of
the employment lands in Pickering is required to ensure the City’s continued economic success
within the regional employment land market. It should also be noted that the study was
prepared during the COVID 19 Pandemic, which is having severe and far far-reaching global
economic impacts.
All economic sectors have been affected, some more so than others, and the full extent of the
pandemic’s social and economic impact is yet to be seen. Of particular relevance to this
assignment, the pandemic has accelerated many of the key factors driving demand for
employment land, especially in the warehousing and distribution sector. The outlook for
economic intensification has also improved for some locations, including “last mile” distribution
solutions and “hybrid” industrial/office work models in older and more mature employment
areas.
To accommodate the significant forecast of employment growth within the Region’s economic
base, land use planning and economic development strategies will need to take advantage of
the evolving nature of the local and regional economies, and meet the market requirements of
all types of industry and businesses of all sizes over the long term.
Accordingly, Dillon Consulting Limited (Dillon) and Lorius and Associates (Lorius) have been
retained by the City of Pickering to undertake a study to review and assess constraints and
opportunities for future employment growth on designated employment lands throughout the
City, and in the Seaton area in particular. The purpose of this Report is to review current
employment area zones and policies and recommend changes, as necessary, as input to the
official plan updates. This report builds upon the findings and recommendations of past studies
completed by the City for the Seaton Lands; considers the findings and recommendations of the
Region’s recently completed Employment Lands Strategy; assesses employment in the broadest
context at the local level through a policy review and land supply analysis; examines current and
evolving employment trends; assesses the capacity for the City to accommodate future
employment growth; and, recommends key policy and regulatory changes to be considered as
part of the local Official Plan Conformity Exercise and implementing zoning by-law in order to
best position the City for long-term economic success.
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The findings of the analysis are intended to provide input to the City’s official plan review as
well as the current Regional Growth Management Strategy (GMS) process, especially the
allocations of forecast population and employment growth to the local area municipalities. For
the City of Pickering, the allocation of employment growth in particular depends almost entirely
on the targets assigned to the Seaton Employment Area lands, including the “Innovation
Corridor” and additional lands to the east in Thompsons Corners. The City’s existing
employment area land supply is largely built-out, with very limited opportunities to
accommodate growth on the greenfield land supply. The extension of the Region’s MCR/ GMS
process provides an opportunity for the City to use the findings of this Study to engage in
discussions and provide input to the Region with respect to the appropriate employment
allocations; and, ultimately translate into new policies at the local level when the City conducts
the required lower-tier conformity exercise to implement the outcomes of the Regional GMS
process.
1.2 Organization of Report
The purpose of this Report is to document the key findings associated with our review of
employment-related growth management issues and opportunities for the City of Pickering.
This report is organized into the following sections:
• Section 2.0 provides details about the economy and current employment trends in
Pickering, with a look at the employment forecasts to 2051;
• Section 3.0 provides an overview of the policy and regulatory documents that inform the
planning of employment lands development;
• Section 4.0 outlines the economic trends pertaining to the development of employment
lands;
• Section 5.0 provides a demand and supply analysis of employment lands in the City of
Pickering;
• Section 6.0 summarizes the challenges and opportunities available to Pickering with
respect to employment lands and economic development and identifies next steps for
the City to take action on.
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2.0 Economic Context
2.1 Overview of Pickering Economy and Employment Base
The City of Pickering is strategically located within the rapidly growing GTAH and GGH
metropolitan area at the western edge of Durham Region abutting the Cities of Toronto and
Markham. Excellent transportation access and proximity to central GTAH markets in Toronto
and Markham bode well for the future growth outlook for both population and employment.
The structure of employment has remained fairly consistent over time. Retail trade, utilities and
manufacturing jobs maintaining the largest share of employment, although the relative share of
utilities has been declining since 2011, and the share of manufacturing appears to have
stabilized and increased gradually3.
In terms of specific employment sectors, the energy sector is a stand out: it is home to one of
two Power Generation facilities in Durham Region, the epicentre of Ontario’s power generation
and most well-developed energy cluster. The Regional economy comprises a number of diverse
industries including manufacturing, engineering, research and development and power
generation that are supported by a well-established energy innovation cluster that provides
synergies to increase productivity, drive innovation and encourage new investment.
The structure of employment in Pickering is explained in large part by the presence of the OPG
Nuclear Facility, currently the largest employer in the City. OPG has acted as the catalyst for the
development of a supply chain of associated manufacturing activity and other professional
services. The Pickering OPG facility is set to be decommissioned beginning in 2025, which will
have long-term implications for the City’s economy and employment base. This presents both
opportunities and challenges as the local and regional economy evolves. In anticipation of this,
the City is undertaking an Environment, Social and Financial study to better understand these
opportunities and challenges. Potential job losses at OPG, however, will be more than offset by
the development of the Seaton Employment Lands in Central Pickering that are widely
anticipated to develop into one of the largest and most successful prestige employment areas in
the GGH over the longer-term.
3 This information is based on 2016 Census data.2021 Census data would shed further light on these
trends; however, it is anticipated that this trend has continued since the last Census period. The City
may want to revisit this toward the end of 2022 when the 2021 Census employment results are
released.
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Momentum is already building in emerging creative technologies, such as Artificial Intelligence
(AI) robotics virtual reality to support film and media, and is now home to the largest
film/television backlot in Canada. The City’s Cultural Strategic Plan calls for the integration of
cultural and economic planning related to growing the creative economy and increasing the
number of creative cultural industries in Pickering. This strategy further gives specific direction
for the City to become a leader in culture led economic development. The creative technologies
sector remains an important area of focus and the community continues to work to deepen the
strength of the local and regional film industry, and broader synergies with the creative
economy.
The Seaton community and surrounding market area is also anticipated to be of major
economic significance over the long-term, with the potential to enhance development potential
in the GTHA east market. Lands immediately north of the Seaton Lands are owned by the
Federal Government and have been identified as a future airport site. The specific timing
remains uncertain. However, should an airport facility be established on these lands, there may
be implications for the types of uses accommodated within the Seaton community over the
longer-term.
2.2 Key Trends & Targets
In terms of trends, the big picture story for the GGH and GTAH is one of continued strong
economic performance. The GGH and GTAH continue to be one of the fastest growing urban
areas in Canada and the United States, driven primarily by international migration. Within this
context, a number of key trends are of note:
2.2.1 Sectoral Composition Continues Shift to Services
Broadly, the structure of employment overall in the Toronto Economic Region continues to shift
from the goods-producing to the services sector, especially professional services, technology
and the Creative industries. This shift has been most visible in the surge of major office
construction in downtown Toronto, but is also emerging in an integrated zone of employment
areas referred as the “Innovation Corridor”, stretching across the GTHA from Durham Region in
the east to the Cities of Hamilton and Guelph and beyond to communities in Waterloo Region to
the west.
2.2.2 Digital Disruption Creating New Models of Working
Accompanying the shift of employment towards services has been rapid growth in the “Digital
Economy”, which has given rise to new models of work especially remote work, automation and
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AI. As a result, all sectors of the economy are at risk of disruption but especially:
Accommodation and food services (NAICS 72); Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33); Agriculture (NAICS
11); and Transportation and warehousing (NAICS 48-49).4
Uncertainty over the employment impacts of these new work models make it challenging to
predict short-term land requirements. However, what is clear is that demand for employment
area lands has remained particularly strong, especially for large greenfield sites with superior
highway transportation access to accommodate growth in warehousing and distribution
activities. As noted, the outlook for economic intensification in older employment areas has also
improved, especially for smaller-scale facilities to meet local distribution needs and “bring
supply chains home” to address weaknesses revealed by COVID.
2.2.3 Built forms and Land Use is Evolving to Accommodate New
Work Models
The evolution of employment and technology adoption has been driving changes in land use,
built form and locational preference for many years. The Logistics and Distribution sector in
particular has been performing well, driven by structural shifts in the economy towards on-line
retailing and other e-commerce platforms, a trend that has been significantly accelerated by the
COVID-19 Pandemic. New industrial buildings are trending towards larger, more land extensive
and lower employment densities than compared to buildings 10 or 15 years ago.
The increased mixing of work activities, office sharing, and automation have also been changing
the way office space is being used. “Offices” are increasingly occupying non-office forms: “flex
space”: co-working; and industrial multiples. Changes in the sectoral composition of
employment are also blurring the lines between traditional industrial and office use with
implications for density and land use within employment areas, which is discussed in more
detail in Section 4.0 of this Report.
2.2.4 Considerable Long-Term Opportunities Exist
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated many existing trends in built form, as demand for
logistics surges and hybrid office and industrial models continue to evolve in response to the
changing needs of workers and businesses in a post COVID-19 environment. Overall, the outlook
for employment lands is positive for both new greenfield and older urban infill sites, which
4 NAICS refers to “North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Additional detail on the
sectors expected to be most affected by automation can be found in the June 2016, the Brookfield
Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship at Ryerson University report: The Talented Mr. Robot:
the impact of automation on Canada’s workforce
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bodes very for employment intensification and revitalization over time.
Considerable long-term economic opportunities exist for Pickering within this context,
particularly related to new and renewable energy technologies, alternative fuels including
“Clean Energy”, manufacturing components and systems and service support. According to the
Region of Durham, key economic sectors include Advanced Manufacturing, ICT, and Energy,
Environmental and Engineering businesses referred to as the “EN3” sector”. Local businesses
that fall into this sector include Intellimeter Canada Inc, Kinetrics RCM Canada and many others.
OPG has historically also been a major player in the EN3 Sector and will continue to drive future
business opportunities through the decommissioning process. The City’s website provides a
more detailed list of additional businesses in the EN3 Sector. The City’s key target sectors have
been well-established and remain major opportunities to compete for new investment, as
confirmed in recent work prepared for the Seaton Employment lands5.
Other long-term opportunities include continued strong growth in Technology-related and
Creative Sectors on a metro-wide basis, which bodes well for emerging sectors in Pickering
including the creative economy (e.g. the backlot studio, Durham Live and the Performing Arts
Centre6), digital and other media technologies. There are also a number of opportunities
associated with decommissioning of the OPG Pickering facility – in 2020 the Centre for Nuclear
Sustainability was launched with a goal to make Canada a world leader in decommissioning
including solutions for materials, developing tooling for nuclear decommissioning and creating
high-skill jobs.
2.3 Regional Employment Forecast 2021 -2051
Notwithstanding the current COVID-19 Pandemic, the long-term growth outlook remains for
continued strong economic performance. The GGH and GTHA will remain very attractive to
newcomers, especially international migration that is the primary driver of population growth.
Growth in the resident labour force will continue to support economic expansion and demand
for new building space to accommodate all types of employment uses.
5 Pickering Innovation Corridor Sector Analysis for Seaton Employment Lands, MDB Insight, 2016
6 The City Centre project is presently delayed
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2.3.1 Significant Acceleration of Growth Envisioned for Durham
Region
Historically, Durham Region and the City of Pickering have lagged behind somewhat on
forecasted employment growth relative to the broader economic region, in part because of the
unexpected delay in the development of the Seaton lands. However, as noted, the Growth Plan
forecasts anticipate a significant acceleration of growth over the period to 2051, approximately
double historic growth rates as illustrated in Figure 2-1.
The growth forecast is driven, in part, by the evolving regional land supply situation, as the more
mature employment areas in the GTHA build-out and demand moves further afield. Current
industrial vacancy and available rates remain at historical lows: averaging under 1.0% for the
Region of Durham (GTA East) and GTA market overall.7
There has been clear evidence of this trend occurring in communities to the west in the GTHA
for example in Peel and Halton Regions, and has more recently started to emerge in the City of
Hamiton. There are also signs of the industrial market accelerating in the GTA East., including
the Region of Durham and Seaton Employment lands. Planned infrastructure investments will
facilities continued expansion of the market into Durham, especially the extension of Provincial
400-series highways, GO transit and post-secondary institutions throughout the community.
7 Colliers Toronto Industrial Market Report Q4 20210
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Figure 2-1: Employment Activity, 2001-2051 (Source: Regional GMS Employment Strategy, Figure 7-1)
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2.3.2 Important Policy-based Goals are Embedded in the Forecast
The employment forecast for Durham Region set out in the Growth Plan also assumes that
growth in Durham will accelerate due to Provincial policies that promote complete communities
throughout the GGH, reduce out-commuting and generally improve the balance of jobs to
residents. Durham is generally well-positioned for growth, and, as noted, will be supported by
investment in Provincial highways (401, 412, 418, 407) and regional transit (GO, DRT) services.
Ultimately, there are many positive factors driving growth over time, which make for a positive
market outlook.
Notwithstanding, the work being completed by the Region, as part of the MCR/ GMS, rightly
notes that growth forecasts are, at least in part, policy-based and aspirational in nature:
requiring a significant increase in the rate of growth relative to the past. Although the Regional
forecast allocations have yet to be completed, Pickering is likely to play an important role in
achieving the very ambitious8 forecast Regionally, especially given its proximity to established
GTA markets, particularly Toronto and York Region; and, the tremendous economic potential
associated with the future development of the Seaton employment lands.
2.3.3 High Skill jobs will Continue to Lead the Way
From a sectoral perspective, that pattern of the overall share of employment shifting broadly
from the goods-to service-producing sectors is likely to continue. Views on the long-term
employment impacts of digital disruption range more widely: in some cases, differing by large
amounts even for similar industries and time frames. In our view, the changes brought about by
digital disruption will occur slowly since economic restructuring has always been a process of
gradual change.
Recent trends do, however, suggest that jobs least at risk are those that require higher levels of
education, problem solving; judgement; and, people management skills; and, oversight. As a
result, sectors such as professional, scientific and technical services, education and healthcare
and natural and applied sciences are mostly likely to lead the way in job growth. Since this
change will likely be felt across all economic sectors, skills training and workforce development
will become an increasingly important strategic issue over time.
8 This growth is mandated by the province and must be planned for
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2.4 Summary and Takeaways
The economic context can be summarized as that of continued rapid economic growth overall,
the shift to higher-skilled work activities and emergence of new models of working and built
forms to accommodate the changes brought about by digital disruption and existing trends
accelerated by the COVID pandemic. The key takeaways from a planning and economic
development perspective are as follows:
• The City of Pickering remains well positioned to compete for new industrial business
investment, especially in the well-established key target sectors noted previously such as
Advanced Manufacturing, Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and the
EN3 sector. As discussed in more detail in Sector 4.0, the outlook for the manufacturing
sector has likely improved as a result of the weaknesses in global supply chains revealed
by the COVID pandemic, especially small-scale manufacturing.
• From structural perspective, recent trends show a continued shift in the proportion of
employment to the service sector. Digital disruption is also creating a whole new range
of business models that bode well for employment area lands in both greenfield and
existing urban areas.
• The COVID Pandemic has accelerated many of the key factors driving demand for
employment lands, especially warehousing and distribution activities, which has a
significant bearing on the future of employment in the City of Pickering, given that much
of the future potential is dependent upon the development of the Seaton area lands as
the next major greenfield employment area within the Region.
• Considerable long-term opportunities exist within this context, including established
targets in the energy sector and emerging trends elsewhere in the GTHA.
• The growth forecast that the Region must use for its GMS (at a minimum) is quite
optimistic and aspirational in nature. The Provincial vision is for significantly accelerated
growth compared to the past intended to achieve important policy-based goals for
‘complete communities’ including a reduction in out-commuting and a generally better
balance between jobs and residents locally with in the region
• The structure of employment is also likely to continue to shift towards services and high-
skill occupations, all of which has implications for economic growth and employment
area land use over the period to 2051.
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3.0 Policy & Regulatory Context
3.1 Provincial Policy
Planning in Ontario is top-down in its approach, led by the Province. A range of policies and
plans are in force that shape how municipalities within Ontario; and, within the GGH specifically
must plan for growth. Provincial policy must be implemented at the upper-tier and lower-tier
levels, where local municipalities must be consistent with or conform to policies and plans, as
applicable. Of particular relevance to this assignment are specific policy directions to promote
economic growth and competitiveness and ensure that a suitable and marketable supply of
employment lands is available to be in in conformity, with the various legislative documents
from the provincial to the local levels.
3.1.1 Planning Act, R.S.O., 1990
The Planning Act establishes the overall legal framework for Ontario’s top-down policy-led
planning system. It grants legislative authority to the Province, its agencies and municipalities to
prepare various plans, policies and regulations, where appropriate. The Planning Act sets out
the framework for statutory planning and identifies how land is controlled for municipal land
use planning.
In Part I of The Planning Act, 20 matters of provincial interest are identified that planning
authorities must have regard for as they establish an appropriate long term vision for growth
and development for the local context. Through the Act, the Province’s interest in planning for
employment opportunities is established. The matters of provincial interest that are relevant to
planning for employment lands, and must be considered within the context of this Report and
any associated recommendations, include:
k) the adequate provision of employment opportunities;
l) the protection of financial and economic well-being of the Province and its municipalities;
p) the appropriate location of growth and development;
q) the promotion of development that is designed to be sustainable, support public transit and be
oriented to pedestrians; and,
r) promotion of built form that is well-designed, encourages a sense of place, and provides for public
spaces that are of high quality, safe, accessible, attractive and vibrant (section 2).
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Section 1 of the Planning Act introduces the term “area of employment”. Within the context of
planning for employment, “area of employment” is defined within the Act as:
“an area of land designated in an OP for clusters of business and economic uses
including, without limitation, the uses listed in subsection (5), or as otherwise
prescribed by regulation”
In accordance with Section 1(5) of The Planning Act, manufacturing uses; warehousing uses;
office uses; retail uses that are associated with manufacturing, warehousing and office uses;
and, facilities that are ancillary to manufacturing, warehousing and office uses are all considered
typically uses suitable for an “area of employment”.
Through an Official Plan, municipalities are responsible for implementing policies that are
aligned with provincial interests and intended to achieve employment growth targets set out by
the Province. Upper and lower-tier municipalities must permit such uses within the land use
designations established for employment lands at the local levels.
The Act establishes the legislative framework that is further implemented through several other
provincial plans including the Provincial Policy Statement, 2020 (PPS) and A Place to Grow:
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, as amended, 2020 (Growth Plan). Through
direction from the Act, the Growth Plan identifies forecast population and employment growth
targets that are allocated to regional municipalities who then distribute growth to lower-tier
municipalities, with the purpose of establishing the appropriate planning and legislative
frameworks for achieving these targets.
3.1.2 Provincial Policy Statement, 2020
The Provincial Policy Statement (PPS), 2020 is issued under Section 3 of the Planning Act and
came into effect on May 1, 2020. The PPS establishes the policy framework for regulating the
development and use of land in Ontario and provides direction for matters of provincial interest
related to land use planning and development. It provides a vision for land use planning in
Ontario that encourages an efficient use of land, resources and public investment and
infrastructure. All decisions affecting planning matters “shall be consistent with” the PPS policy
statements. The relevant over-arching policy directions, as they apply to and inform this Report,
are summarized below.
The policies in Section 1 of the PPS, Building Strong Healthy Communities, provide guidance for
facilitating efficient land use and development policies to support “strong, livable, healthy and
resilient communities,” and protect the environment, public health, and safety of communities.
The 2020 PPS maintains a strong emphasis on economic competitiveness, including the
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promotion of economic growth, diversification of the economic base, and employment
opportunities in rural areas (Policy 1.1.4.1 f).
Facilitating economic development is outlined in Policy 1.3 of the PPS and provides direction for
a range of employment opportunities to ensure a diversified economic base. The policies
encourage “facilitating the conditions for economic investment by identifying strategic sites for
investment, monitoring availability and suitability of employment sites, including market-ready
sites, and seeking to address potential barriers to investment” (Policy 1.3 c).
The protection of economic uses including the viability of existing or planned employment areas
is also a high priority. The policies of Section 1.3.2 on Employment Areas state that planning
authorities should provide an appropriate mix and range of employment, opportunities for a
diversified economic base, plan for, protect, and preserve Employment Areas, and ensure the
necessary infrastructure is available. The Official Plan review process is intended to assess
current Employment Areas to ensure the designation is appropriate to the planned function of
the Employment Area (Policy 1.3.2.2).
3.1.3 A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden
Horseshoe, as amended (2020)
A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) as amended,
2020 outlines where and how growth and development should occur between 2021 and 2051
within the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH).9 The Growth Plan provides more detailed policy
guidance for employment lands planning. Each single-tier and upper-tier municipality has been
provided with population and employment growth targets to meet by 2051. As a lower-tier
municipality, the City must also implement the directions from the Region for achieving
population and employment growth targets, based on the Region’s MCR/ GMS. As detailed in
the following sections of this Report, the Region is currently undergoing the MCR/ GMS process.
The following highlights the relevant policies that will need to be considered within the context
of the Employment Land Use Review:
• Promoting development and economic competitiveness: Economic competitiveness is
to be promoted through a more efficient use of existing employment areas including
vacant and underutilized lands as well as ensuring that a sufficient land is available in
new locations to accommodate a variety of forecast employment growth, to plan better
connected, integrated areas, and to align land-use planning and economic development
9 A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, Office Consolidation, 2020, Ontario.
Approved May 16, 2019; Amended August 28, 2020
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goals to attract and retain investment and employment (Policy 2.2.5.1 a) to d)).
• Directing office, institutional and retail uses generally away from Employment Areas:
The Growth Plan directs major office and appropriate major institutional uses to Urban
Growth Centres (UGCs), Major Transit Station Areas (MTSAs), and other Strategic
Growth Areas (SGAs) with existing or planned frequent transit service (refer to Figure 3-1
and Figure 3-2 for further visual context). This policy direction is implemented in the
Regional GMS strategy through the relatively limited allocation of major office growth to
the designated Employment Areas. As discussed in more detail in Section 4.0, the focus
of most new office development is directed to new community areas, based on the
expectation that urban mixed-use environments will become increasingly attractive
10locations for office-type uses over the planning horizon.
• The Growth Plan also directs retail and office uses to locations that support active
transportation and have existing or planned transit (Policy 2.2.5.2; Policy 2.2.5.3). It is
noted that there is a designated UGC for the Downtown area of the City of Pickering and
has a minimum density target of 200 residents and jobs combined per hectare by 2031
(Policy 2.2.3.2 b)). There is also an MTSA in the City of Pickering, based around the
Pickering GO Transit Station. This MTSA is located within a priority transit corridor and
has a minimum density target of 150 residents and jobs combined per hectare (Policy
2.2.4.3 c)). MTSAs and UGCs do not form part of the City’s designated Employment Areas
and none are located in Seaton; however, are intended to accommodate a significant
proportion of office-type jobs.
• Guiding the planning of Employment Areas: Reflecting the high priority policy objective
to promote economic development and competitiveness across the GGH, additional
policy direction is provided to guide the planning of employment areas. To optimize the
use of the land supply, municipalities are required to plan Employment Areas with
transit-supportive built forms while minimizing surface parking and developing active
transportation networks (Policy 2.2.5.4).
• Protecting lands near Goods Movement facilities: The Growth Plan also directs
municipalities to protect lands within settlement areas in proximity to major Goods
Movement facilities for manufacturing, warehousing, and logistics, and appropriate
ancillary facilities (Policy 2.2.5.5).
10 Employment Strategy Technical Report -Chapter 3 of the Region of Durham Growth Management
Study: Land Needs Analysis (September 2021) prepared by Watson and Associates Economists Limited
and Urban Strategies inc. (page 39).
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• Designating and protecting Employment Areas: Upper-tier municipalities are required
to “designate all Employment Areas in official plans and protect them for appropriate
employment uses over the long term” (Policy 2.2.5.6). In addition, the Growth Plan
requires that municipalities prohibit residential and limit other sensitive uses that are
not ancillary to the primary employment use, prohibit major retail uses and provide
appropriate interface between employment and adjacent non-Employment Areas to
maintain land-use compatibility (Policy 2.2.5.7). The Growth Plan also identifies a
number of criteria and conditions that must be met in order to consider the conversion
of lands within Employment Areas to non-employment uses (Policy 2.2.5.9, 10, and 11).
• Identifying long-term population and employment projections: Schedule 3 of the
Growth Plan outlines the population and employment projections for the Region of
Durham. The Growth Plan forecasts 1,300,000 people and 460,000 jobs by 2051. As part
of the Region’s MCR, the Region of Durham is responsible for distributing the forecasted
growth amongst the lower tiers, which includes the City of Pickering. The regional lower-
tier growth allocations have not yet been completed as of the date of this report.
• Requiring municipalities to establish minimum density targets for all Employment
Areas: The Growth Plan requires that all upper-tier municipalities establish minimum
density targets, measured in jobs/ha, for all Employment Areas within settlement areas.
These targets are to reflect current and anticipated type and scale of employment, as
well as opportunities for intensification of Employment Areas on sites that support
active transportation, are served by transit, and will be implemented through OP
policies, designations, and zoning (Policy 2.2.5.13). This requirement has significant
implications for the Seaton Employment lands, given their likely strong market attraction
and potential to contribute to both regional employment growth overall, and broader
Growth Plan objectives for more complete communities; however, there are also
constraints with this in relation to ensuring conformity with the CPDP forecast and other
CPDP policies which do not provide flexibility for the City to consider and respond to
changing market pressures and demands for alternate forms of employment uses that
were not contemplated or permitted in the CPDP (specifically, restrictions related to the
extent of warehousing and logistics activities, as distribution was a constraint to growth/
limiting market prospects).
• As noted previously, the Region of Durham is currently undergoing an MCR/ GMS
process and will set a minimum density target for Pickering in accordance with the
Growth Plan. However, these allocations and targets have not yet been completed as of
the date of this report. As noted previously, the findings of this work is intended to
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provide an opportunity to engage in proactive conversations with the Region in relation
to the appropriate allocation for the City based on the outcomes and recommendations
of this Study. Preliminary discussion with both the Region and the Province have
occurred on this matter. Both the Province and Region agree that the CPDP is overdue
for a review. However, procedural issues have been identified with respect to timing for
the Province to consider a review of the CPDP. This precludes the Region from exploring
alternate opportunities for employment allocations as part of the ongoing GMS/ MCR,
since conformity with the CPDP is required. This timing provides constraints for the City
to address the current issue and, as a result, a different approach in the short-term is
required in order to capitalize on the current market opportunities.
• Protecting Rural Areas Employment Uses: The Growth Plan states “existing employment
areas outside of settlement areas on rural lands that were designated for employment
uses in an official plan that was approved and in effect as of June 16, 2006 may continue
to be permitted. Expansions to these existing employment areas may be permitted only
if necessary to support the immediate needs of existing businesses and if compatible
with the surrounding uses” (Policy 2.2.9.5). At present, there are no rural Employment
Areas designated within Pickering.
The Growth Plan has also introduced a new policy framework that is intended to provide
greater long-term protection for key Employment Areas that are provincially significant and to
better coordinate efforts to support their contribution to economic growth and improve access
to transit. Provincially Significant Employment Zones (PSEZ) are defined as:
Areas defined by the Minister in consultation with affected municipalities
for the purpose of long-term planning for job creation and economic
development. Provincially significant employment zones can consist of
Employment Areas as well as mixed-use areas that contain a significant
number of jobs.
Policy 2.2.5.12 of the Growth Plan allows the Minister to identify PSEZ and provide specific
direction for planning in those areas, to be implemented through appropriate OP policies,
designations, and economic development strategies.
There is a PSEZ identified within the City of Pickering. The identified zone is noted as Zone 3 by
the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (MMAH), which spans areas in both the City of
Pickering (Pickering East) and the Town of Ajax. The PSEZ is not located in Seaton. The
approximate location of Zone 3 is the employment area south of Highway 401 in Pickering and
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Ajax.11
3.1.4 Land Needs Assessment Methodology for the Greater Golden
Horseshoe Region (Amendment 1, 2020)
On August 28, 2020, the Minister formally issued the updated methodology Land Needs
Assessment (LNA) Methodology in accordance with Policy 5.2.2.1 c of the Growth Plan.12 The
revised LNA Methodology focuses on a more simplified and outcome-based approach in
comparison to the prior LNA Methodology introduced in 2018. The LNA Methodology prescribes
the key steps to establishing Community Area and Employment Area land needs. The key steps
for Community Area land needs are found in section 2 of the LNA methodology, and in section 3
for Employment Area land needs.13 14 Upper-and single-tier municipalities in the GGH are
required to use the methodology in combination with the policies of the Growth Plan to assess
the quantity of land required to accommodate forecast growth.
A key emphasis in the LNA method is understanding how economic trends and drivers of growth
are likely to influence the amount, type and location of employment growth. From an
employment area perspective, density is the key input to the determination of overall land
requirements. And while municipalities may have some flexibility in the approach and inputs to
the analysis, the LNA method makes clear that municipalities are to apply appropriate density
assumptions by area. More specifically, the LNA notes that it is “essential to prepare density
assumptions to ensure there is no shortage of land to accommodate the full range and mix of
employment opportunities to meet the forecasts of the Plan”.15
All municipalities in the GGH, including Durham Region, are required to follow the prescribed
LNA method, including Durham Region. The results of the analysis at a Regional level have been
completed on a preliminary basis as part of the current GMS. Based on the results of this
analysis, a specific population and employment growth target will be allocated to the City of
Pickering. As of the date of this report, this work has not been completed by the Region and it is
anticipated that the results of this analysis will provide input to the allocation process when it is
undertaken.
11 MMAH Proposed Framework for Provincially Significant Employment Zones. 2019.
https://ero.ontario.ca/notice/013-4506
12 A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Land Needs Assessment
Methodology for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2020). Ontario. August 28, 2020.
13 Land Needs Assessment Methodology for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2020), pp. 8 to 14.
14 Land Needs Assessment Methodology for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2020), pp. 15 to 18
15 Land Needs Assessment Methodology for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2020), pp. 17
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Section 5 of this Report provides a localized supply and demand analysis for the City of
Pickering, in relation to the broader MCR process, to offer recommendations for best
positioning the City to be competitive and ensure the right-sized local policy approaches are
applied to accommodate the forecast growth.
3.1.4.1 Growth Plan Policy Takeaways & Considerations
From a Provincial policy perspective, it is clear that promoting economic development and
competitiveness across the GGH is high priority. In summary:
• Both the PPS and Growth Plan speak to the importance of facilitating the conditions for
attracting new business investment by ensuring a suitable supply of available
employment lands to meet the needs of all types of industry and to remove, where
feasible, potential barriers to investment.
• The Provincial LNA method requires that municipalities ensure a sufficient quantity of
employment lands to meet overall demand and include lands to accommodate the full
range of mix of opportunities to achieve the Growth Plan forecasts
• Overall, the Region of Durham is forecast to experience a significant increase in
employment over the period to 2051. As noted in Section 2.0 of this Report, these
targets are considered to be quite ambitious and are the minimum that upper-and
lower-tier municipalities must plan for in order to conform to the Growth Plan. At
present, the Region of Durham has yet to allocate the forecasts to the local
municipalities, which for the City of Pickering will depend largely on the density
expected for the Seaton Area Lands over the period to 2051.
• Of key consideration for employment lands in Pickering are also Growth plan direction
that specific uses are to be located in specific areas and meet certain criteria. For
instance, major office and institutional uses are directed towards UGCs, MTSAs, or other
SGAs that have existing or planned frequent transit service. Retail and office uses are
similarly directed to be located in areas that support active transportation and have
existing or planned transit service.
• Within the context of Pickering, where a significant proportion of the Seaton
employment lands have been designated for prestige employment type uses, including
office uses, there will be a need to consider the functions of the UGC and MTSAs for
accommodating office uses relative to the Prestige Industrial lands in Seaton in order to
strike a balance between the location of such uses while ensuring the UGC and MTSAs
are able to meet their respective people and jobs per hectare targets.
• Overall, there is direction from the Growth Plan for employment areas to be developed
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with transit-supportive built forms, minimize surface parking areas, and to seek
opportunities to develop active transportation networks. There is a protected transit
corridor the south side of Highway 407. However, the timeframe for delivery of a transit
service along this corridor is still post 2041. At the same time, both the Growth Plan and
accompanying LNA method require that policy objectives be balanced against ‘market-
based’ demand factors that may require the accommodation of lower-density
employment uses such as logistics and warehousing would have a larger land
requirement than offices or other employment uses. Consideration of expanding upon
and/or providing flexibility for a wider range of permitted uses, including warehousing
and logistics facilities in Seaton would have implications in terms of demand for transit
service, among other things.
• Regarding the transportation of goods, given the Seaton Lands location adjacent to
Highway 407, these lands are well positioned to support employment uses that require
unencumbered access to Goods Movement facilities, such as manufacturing uses that
require just-in-time delivery (e.g. electronics, pharmaceuticals, home consumer
products).
3.2 Regional Policy Context
Durham Region, as an upper-tier municipality, has been granted powers from the Province to
act as Approval Authority on local planning matters within the Region. In carrying out this
function for the Province, The Durham Region Official Plan establishes the land use planning
framework for which local municipalities must implement, conform to and be consistent with,
as the case may be. This section provides a summary of bo0th the current and evolving policy
context at the Regional level that pertains to employment lands and planning for employment.
3.2.1 Durham Region Official Plan (2020 Office Consolidation)
The Official Plan for the Durham Region (ROP) was approved in November of 1993 by the
Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Since this time, it has been amended and updated at
regular intervals, as prescribed by the Province. Most recently, the ROP was consolidated in
2020 and contains all amendments up to May 26, 2020, unless otherwise noted. It includes
population and employment projections to the year 2031 for the entirety of the Durham
Region. Looking to the lower-tier municipalities within the Region, the outcome of the ongoing
Regional MCR process will provide new population and job allocations which the City of
Pickering must then update their planning documents for the purposes of conformity and
implementation. The targets contained in the current ROP, are based on a 2031 planning
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horizon and historic trends, which overestimated growth (as noted in this report, the Region is
behind the 2031 target by approximately 100,000 jobs as of 2021), and did not anticipate or
consider the significant market and other global changes experienced in the last several years.
This no longer reflects the current shifting economic context, which leaves limited prospects for
warehousing and logistics uses to develop in Seaton. The current MCR/GMS provides some
opportunity for this to be reviewed and updated.
Similar to the PPS and Growth Plan, encouraging economic development and maximizing
competitiveness is a Regional planning policy priority. The economic development policies
within the ROP encourage the development of healthy, complete, and sustainable communities
that have a balance between the diversity and amount of jobs and the population (section
3.1.2). Economic development goals also include diversifying the Region’s employment base
(section 3.1.3) and developing the Region to its “fullest economic potential” (section 3.1.1).
General policies to facilitate economic development include:
• To support the goal of a complete and sustainable community that provides residents
with close live-work opportunities, a target ratio of 50% (one job for every two persons)
was established by the Region (section 3.2.2). As with the overall forecast, this also
represents an optimistic view of future growth given that the current balance of jobs to
residents in the community (referred to as the “activity rate”) has historically been at a
much lower rate, approximately 35% over the last 20 years and is expected to remain
around this level over the period to 2051.
The goals of the Official Plan are supported through a number of directions, notably the
directive to protect designated Employment Areas from conversion (section 1.3.1) and generally
to enhance the use of designated Employment Areas to meet targets (sections 3.3.1; 3.3.3;
3.3.4; 3.3.5; 3.3.6; 3.3.7; 3.3.9; 8C.1.5; 8C.2.9; and 8C.2.10). Looking specifically at Employment
Areas, the ROP goals are:
• To establish Employment Areas that provide for the development of industries and
businesses that require separation from sensitive land uses, and to efficiently guide their
development to obtain the greatest benefit for the Region (section 8.1.17);
• To increase industrial and high skilled job opportunities for the residents of the Region
(section 8.1.18); and,
• To attract industries and businesses that will maximize and diversify the economic and
employment opportunities in the Region (section 8.1.19).
To meet both markets needs and the outlined employment targets, the Region is to ensure the
availability of a minimum five-year supply of serviced lands in Regional and Local Centres and
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Employment Areas (section 3.3.2). The minimum five-year supply is to be maintained based on
the anticipated demand, need to balance population growth with employment opportunities,
ease of servicing, and the financial resources of the Region (section 3.3.2). This policy is
important as it sets a clear directive for Pickering to prepare, in a strategic manner, a serviced
supply of employment lands to maximize economic development and investment opportunities.
The ROP directs all lower-tier municipal Councils to ensure that local Official Plans include
policies and designations that work to implement the intent and provisions within the ROP as it
pertains to economic development (section 3.3.11). Specific attention is drawn to the provisions
found in policy Section 3.3.8, which stipulates that the Region and area municipal Councils will
cooperate to achieve greater diversification of the economic base in the Region. To increase the
diversification of the economic base, specific matters are outlined, the following of which are
relevant to this Study:
• promote Urban Growth Centres, Regional Centres and Corridors as attractive locations
for major offices;
• promote the beautification of development along major transportation corridors, in
particular, the redevelopment and intensification of existing Employment Areas abutting
Highway 401; and,
• encourage and support job opportunities in the agricultural sector for future generations
(section 3.3.8).
The ROP defines Employment Areas as: “Lands designated on Schedule 'A', which are set aside
for uses that by their nature may require access to highway, rail, and/or shipping facilities,
separation from sensitive uses, or benefit from locating close to similar uses” (section 8C.2.1).
In accordance with the ROP, permitted uses in Employment Areas can include: manufacturing,
assembly and processing of goods, service industries, research and development facilities,
warehousing, offices and business parks, hotels, storage of goods and materials, freight transfer
and transportation facilities with some of these uses encouraged to meet locational criteria
(section 8C.2.1). Some sensitive land uses may be permitted within Employment Areas, while
residential uses, nursing and retirement homes, elementary and secondary schools, and places
of worship are not permitted in Employment Areas (section 8C.2.2).
For Employment Areas, provisions are to include development of a transit-supportive, compact
built form and that plans are made for transit and active transportation to be considered during
the development of these lands (section 8C.2.9).
The ROP contains a number of policies that pertain to the Urban System, specific policy
direction for Urban Employment Areas. In particular, the ROP notes that on a Region-wide basis,
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Urban Employment Areas should be planned to:
• Meet an overall gross density of 50 residents and jobs combined per hectare when
developing greenfield areas (section 7.3.9.b); and,
• Accommodate a minimum 50% of all forecast employment in designated Employment
Areas (section 7.3.9.c).
With respect to the second bullet above detailing the proportion of jobs to be allocated to
Employment Areas. This means that a minimum of half of all new jobs must be directed towards
designated Employment Areas. The remaining share may be outside of employment lands and
Employment Areas, such as in areas that are planned for mixed uses or commercial uses. This
policy recognizes that not every job is, or should be, found within employment lands.
The ROP contemplates particular principles for adaptability in the long-term, sustainable
development, harmony with nature, as well as diversity and integration of structures and
functions (section 8.2.1). The principles for development also include being transit-supportive
along with active transportation and public transit use, while upholding good urban design
principles that involved a mix of uses in a more compact urban form and promote
intensification (section 8.2.1). As well, Urban Areas are to be developed based on lands that
have access to full municipal services (section 8.2.2).
Pertinent to Employment Areas is the policy directing the preservation of the Duffins Rouge
Agricultural Preserve and development of the Seaton community to be in conformity with the
provisions of the Central Pickering Development Plan which requires Seaton to provide one job
for every two residents and a total of 30,500 jobs, 18,800 of which must be located on the
Seaton Employment lands, by 2031 and 35,000 jobs over the long term (The Central Pickering
Development Plan (2012) is detailed in Section 3.4.1 of this Report). Further to the ROP policy
on development in the Urban System requiring access to full municipal services (section 8.2.2).
Overall, this demonstrates the Region’s ultimate preference for all development within the
Urban System to have access to and be built on full municipal services. Currently, much of the
lands in the Seaton area are not serviced, which presents a number of challenges from both a
land use planning and economic development and competitiveness perspective. The lack of
servicing in much of Seaton is particularly challenging, given that the balance of the
employment lands in the Pickering East and Pickering West Employment Areas are nearly built
out.
Within the ROP, there is reference to the Federal Pickering Lands that are located in Pickering.
At the local municipal level, these lands are known as the Proposed Airport Site, which has been
owned by the Federal Government since the early 1970s. A number of ROP policies indicate
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support for the lands to be developed as an airport, recognizing that in doing so there would be
additional economic opportunities for the Region and the City of Pickering. These lands are
vacant and currently used for agricultural purposes; however, there have been studies
conducted by KPMG on behalf of the federal government to evaluate options for what kind of
airport may be appropriate and when the need for the airport may arise.
3.2.1.1 ROP Policy Takeaways & Considerations
In summary:
• The ROP provides policy direction to the local-level municipalities, including Pickering,
and allocates population and employment growth targets to be implemented for each.
Policies within the ROP are intended to guide the local municipalities on the land use
policies that must be implemented at the local level. From a Regional policy stand-point,
there is considerable support for the protection of employment lands and to maximize
economic development opportunities to make more jobs available for residents.
Conversion policies appropriately limit lands designated for employment being changed
to facilitate development that is not employment related. This allows for employment
lands to be protected longer term, to be available in order to help meet growth targets
like what has been set out for Durham via the Growth Plan.
• The ROP must conform to the CPDP, which requires that 18,800 jobs be provided on the
Seaton Employment Lands This forecast and target was based on work completed in
2007, and does not necessarily reflect the market conditions of today as described in
Section 2.0 of this Report.
• In terms of employment lands in the City of Pickering, the ROP policies contemplate the
need for providing full municipal servicing. Having full municipal servicing in place for
employment lands development is critical for both the municipality to sustainably and
strategically support development, while also facilitating the availability of ‘shovel ready’
lands for industrial developers.
• At present, municipal servicing is not available to all designated Employment Areas in
Pickering, which limits economic development opportunities for the Region and the
municipality and may have implications for achieving the employment targets set out in
the Growth Plan, particularly given that significant proportions of the City’s existing
employment lands in Pickering East and Pickering West are virtually built out, and able
to accommodate intensification only.
• As noted, there is Regional interest in the development of Pickering airport lands for an
airport. In order to prepare for this potential development, the ROP requires that the
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City of Pickering ensure there is adequate employment lands nearby the future airport
and that the land uses permitted in these areas are preferable for the location and
context.
• On a final note, it is important to consider that at least half of the forecast for
employment growth must be allocated to designated Employment Areas while the other
half can be located outside of designated Employment Areas. It is recognized that not all
jobs are associated with traditional employment lands, such as manufacturing or goods
processing, which is an important distinction when addressing growth targets and the
employment land supply and capacity.
3.2.2 Envision Durham Region Municipal Comprehensive Review
The Region is currently undertaking a Municipal Comprehensive Review and Official Plan Review
Process (referred to as the MCR/ GMS throughout this report). Through the MCR/ GMS process,
the Region will be allocating new growth to Pickering to satisfy the 2051 planning horizon.
Overall, the Region is expected to grow to 1.3 million people and 460,000 jobs by 2051
(previously 960,000 people and 350,000 jobs by 2031 (ROP section 7.3.3)). Following
completion of the MCR, and approval by the Province, new targets for housing and
employment, as well as implementing policies to achieve the targets, will need to be
implemented by lower-tier municipalities, including the City of Pickering. While the Region is
currently conducting their GMS/ MCR process, they must complete it within the context of the
CPDP targets, regardless of whether they are reflective of current market conditions. An
amendment to the CPDP would be required in order for the Region to consider alternate targets
and employment forecasts for Seaton as part of their GMS/ MCR. Through conversations with
the Region and the Province, it is understood that there is a general agreement that the CPDP
should be revisited; however, there are constraints with respect to timing—the review and
update would not occur in a timeframe that would provide the opportunity for the City to
address current market and economic shifts.
Through the MCR/ GMS Process, the Region has initiated a number of studies and reports on
future growth and employment forecasts. The Growth Plan Forecasts for 2051 and the Land
Needs Assessment methodology provides the background analysis for the Region’s Growth
Management Strategy. The first phase of the Growth Management Strategy involved the
completion of an LNA. The LNA was presented via four separate but interrelated reports, as
follows:
• Region-wide Growth Analysis;
• Housing Intensification;
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• Employment Strategy; and,
• Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report.
Of particular relevance to the employment land use review are the findings of the Employment
Strategy and Land Needs analysis noted previously. The key findings of the analysis are
summarized below for context, while Appendix A includes a more robust summary:
• Durham Region’s employment is forecast to reach 460,000 jobs by 2051, which an
increase of approximately 218,000 jobs between 2021 and 2051;
• Achieving the residential and employment forecasts will require a significant increase in
housing construction and job growth than currently being achieved in Durham;
• As noted, to achieve the employment forecast for 460,000 jobs by 2051 will require
approximately double the Region’s historic employment growth rate and is considered
“aspirational” from a growth management perspective.
• Employment Land employment is anticipated to play a significant role in achieving the
forecasts, accommodating approximately 37% of the total regional employment growth
over the period to 2051. Well-located, greenfield employment land will be key to
meeting this significant growth requirement.
• Because the existing Pickering employment land supply is almost fully built out, the
ability of the Seaton lands to accommodate growth will have a strong bearing on the
overall employment area growth outlook and allocation to the local area municipalities.
Based on an analysis of future demand and supply, a shortfall between the total
Employment Area available for development and the Region’s employment forecast for
460,000 jobs by 2051 was determined.
• The Employment Strategy also takes into account findings of previous work undertaken
on key opportunities and challenges to growth, which speaks to the importance of
maintaining the Region’s competitiveness as a hub of innovation and technology16 . Of
key importance to this end would be the accommodation of the higher value jobs in key
target sectors, in particularly the advanced manufacturing components of the energy
and ICT sectors noted previously.
To accomplish these objectives, a number of recommendations were put forward to balance the
changes required of Employment Areas to support an evolving economy while protecting the
integrity of Employment Areas. The recommendations included:
• Broadening and further defining accessory and supportive uses for Employment Areas
16 Land Needs Assessment Methodology for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2020), pp.17
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(section 8.4.2) to help create more complete business parks or industrial areas.
• To discourage major retail development in Employment Areas by updating the definition
in the ROP to specifically include “large-scale or large-format retail stores or retail
centres” to ensure that such developments be clearly prohibited or limited in
Employment Areas through other ROP policies (section 8.4.3).
• For the ROP to be adjusted, so it states that the Region endeavors to achieve
approximately 50% of all forecast employment to be accommodated in designated
Employment Areas (section 8.4.4)
• To plan for a minimum average density target of 26 employees per hectare for all Urban
Employment Areas in the Region, in accordance with section 2.2.5.13 of the Growth Plan
(section 8.4.5)
To encourage intensification of existing Employment Areas, especially for sites that support
active transportation and are served by existing or planned transit, and to undertake an
Employment Area intensification strategy (section 8.4.6). From a land needs perspective, this
objective is achieved by allocating approximately 20% of the forecast growth on employment
lands to be accommodated through intensification. This is different than the approach taken in
other municipalities, such as the City of Hamilton, where the approach is to maintain or slightly
increase the density of existing employment lands to the plan horizon, recognizing that some
jobs are lost through declines in the existing base of occupied lands in older more mature areas.
The MCR/GMS is currently in the ‘Direct Stage’ of the process, which has involved the release of
the Growth Management Study reports, Phase 1 of the Land Needs Assessment, and the release
of the Proposed Policy Directions. It was originally planned that the draft ROP will be adopted
by Regional Council in 2022 and approved by the Ministry of Municipal Housing and Affairs later
in 2022. However, the Region is behind schedule and is now anticipated to be completed in
2023. The City of Pickering’s Official Plan is required to be updated within one year of the
approval of the Region’s Official Plan to ensure consistency of policy directives. It is our
understanding that Durham Region has indicated a delay with the Envision Durham work and
has requested additional time from the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing to complete
the work for the MCR/ GMS. As a result, specific population and employment allocations for the
City of Pickering have not been identified and have not yet been considered as part of this
report. As noted previously, this timing and the results of the current employment land use
review provides the City and Region with an opportunity to engage in discussions in a proactive
manner as they continue to finalize the MCR/ GMS allocations, especially as they relate to
expectations for the Seaton area in a broader regional context.
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3.3 Local Policy and Regulatory Context
The following policy documents by the City of Pickering provide direction for the development
of employment lands and associated land use needs in the municipality. Of particular relevance
is the Central Pickering Development Plan (CPDP) that establishes the vision and planning
objectives for the Seaton area, including the employment targets overall as well as the
allocation of jobs to the lands along Highway 407. The specific employment targets for Seaton
have been in place and unchanged since 2012 when Amendment 1 to the Central Pickering
Development Plan (CPDP) was approved.
3.3.1 City of Pickering Official Plan
The local Official Plan for the City of Pickering was adopted in 1997. Currently, a 2018 office
consolidation version of the Official Plan (Edition 8) is available to the public, which includes all
amendments up to October, 2018. Contained in the Official Plan (OP) are objectives for growth,
settlement, and economic development that play key roles in the future of employment uses in
the City. The OP includes a number of guiding principles for planning Pickering’s future growth
and development. Within Principle 2, the City aims to become more self-sufficient while seeking
broader connections, which is noted to specifically require actions such as:
• enhancing local economic opportunities while building global trading partnerships; and,
• supporting and seeking out responsible economic activities and investments.
Systems & Areas Planning Framework
The City of Pickering has identified three distinct, yet interrelated, systems that establish the
City’s planning framework: the Ecological System, the Urban System and the Rural System.
Below, Figure 3-4 depicts the Urban System.
For purposes of this Report, only the urban system will be discussed in detail. The City has
adopted the following goals for the urban system:
• to establish and encourage a “complete” urban area with a wide mix and diversity of
uses, activities, experiences and opportunities;
• to recognize and nurture important interrelationships between local culture, local
identity and the local economy;
• to provide an adaptable, durable, safe and accessible urban environment; and,
• to involve residents, business-people, landowners, relevant public agencies, and other
interested groups and individuals in making decisions concerning the urban system
(section 2.6).
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To achieve these goals, with specific emphasis on employment and economic development, it is
the City’s policy that council will work to:
• encourage a variety of uses in close proximity to one another through a well-designed,
compact urban form;
• make efficient use of infrastructure, land and services, and facilitate local economic and
social interactions between people;
• increase overall the number and variety of housing, employment, educational, cultural,
recreational, and other opportunities and experiences within the urban area; and,
• direct new residents, jobs and activities to areas where adequate amenities, services and
facilities either exist or will be provided (section 2.7).
The City recognizes three (3) adjoining areas as the urban system in Pickering. The areas are
defined as:
• South Pickering Urban Area: lands between Lake Ontario and the C.P. (Belleville) rail
line, which cuts diagonally across the City from north of Finch Avenue in the west, to
north of Taunton Road in the east;
• Seaton Urban Area: lands between the C.P. (Belleville) rail line and north to the Federal
Airport lands (generally Highway 7), west of Sideline 16/Ajax-Pickering boundary, east of
the West Duffins Creek; and,
• Proposed Airport Site: lands north of Highway 7 for a potential airport (section 2.8).
Figure 3-1 illustrates the geographic locations of each of these areas.
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
Dillon Consulting Limited & Lorius and Associates Final Report-May 2022
LAND USE REV IEW
C ITY OF PICKERING URBAN SYSTEM AND 2031 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TARGETS
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Figure 3-1: City of Pickering Urban System
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
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The South Pickering Urban Area and Seaton Urban Area have been further divided into 21 urban
neighbourhoods via the OP, as shown Figure 3-2 and Figure 3-3 below.
The areas in the City’s urban system each have distinct population and employment targets
estimated for the year 2016, and more recent targets updated for the year 2031. The
employment target for the South Pickering Urban Area for the year 2016 was 51,200 jobs.
Urban employment in the South Pickering Urban Area is to be accommodated primarily in the
designated Mixed Use Areas, Employment Areas, and via home occupations in Urban
Residential Areas (section 2.11).
For the Seaton Urban Area, the policy direction for development is for compact development,
higher densities, and to use land and services more efficiently that will facilitate Community
Nodes and Mixed Corridors to develop first with commercial uses, intensifying over time
through a broader mix of uses (section 2.13). It should be noted that the employment
expectations for Seaton have always been considered optimistic, especially in terms of the
amount of office growth anticipated and the relatively high density that would need to be
achieved on the non-office components of the land supply in a broader GTHA context. Since
2012, however, the market for employment lands has changed significantly, especially
employment density and demand for logistics space, which raises questions around the
suitability of the current targets as a basis for accommodating growth over the next 30 years.
The development of this urban community in the Seaton Urban Area is planned to
accommodate 30,500 jobs by 2031, and up to 35,000 jobs through long-term intensification
(section 2.13). It is of importance to note that, currently, very little employment development
has occurred within the Seaton employment area. It unlikely that the 2031 target will be
achieved17. This is an important consideration and a key point for discussion with the Region to
inform the current and ongoing MCR/ GMS process.
17 Current development on the Seaton employment lands includes a new commercial plaza, Kubota,
and the Jerry Coughlan Health and Wellness Centre.
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
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LAND USE REVIEW
SOUTH PICKERING URBANI AREA
NEIGHBOURHOODS
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Figure 3-2: South Pickering Urban Area Neighbourhoods
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
Dillon Consulting Limited & Lorius and Associates Final Report-June 2022
LAND USE REVIEW
SEATON URBAN AREA NEIGHBOURHOODS
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Figure 3-3: Seaton Urban Area Neighbourhoods
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Dillon Consulting Limited & Lorius and Associates Final Report-June 2022
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37
South Pickering Urban Area Neighbourhoods (extended text for Figure 3-2):
1. Rosebank 6. Woodlands 11. Amberlea
2. West Shore 7. Dunbarton 12. Liverpool
3. Bay Ridges 8. City Centre 13. Brock Ridge
4. Brock Industrial 9. Village East 14. Rouge Park
5. Rougemount 10. Highbush 15. Duffin Heights
Seaton Urban Area Neighbourhoods (extended text for Figure 3-3):
16. Lamoreaux 19. Wilson Meadows
17. Brock-Taunton 20. Thompson's Corners, and
18. Mount Pleasant 21. Innovation Corridor
At present, the job growth forecasts in the OP are to the year 2031. The employment growth for
the Seaton Urban Area is forecast to accommodate a total of 30,500 jobs by 2031, with up to
35,000 jobs in the longer term through intensification. The growth forecasts were allocated for
each specific neighbourhood and are detailed below in Table 3-1 for ease of reference.
Table 3-1: 2031 Population & Employment Growth Forecasts by Seaton Urban Area
Neighbourhood
Forecast N16:
Lamoreaux
N17:
Brock
Taunton
N18:
Mount
Pleasant
N19:
Wilson
Meadows
N20:
Thompson’s
Corners
N21:
Pickering
Innovation
Corridor
Population
Forecast
17,500 5,000 18,000 15,000 5,500 0
Employment
Lands
Forecast
N/A N/A N/A N/A 5,400 13,400
The 2031 growth forecasts, once allocated amongst the six (6) Neighbourhoods in the Seaton
Urban Area, demonstrate more clearly how the City has planned to accommodate population
and employment growth. Much of the population growth for the Seaton Urban Area is directed
towards Lamoreaux, Brock-Taunton, Mount Pleasant, and Wilson Meadows. Although largely
planned for Residential Uses, these Neighbourhoods each are to include some Mixed Use
and/or Commercial Uses. Over half of the total employment growth forecast for the Seaton
Urban Area is directed between Thompson’s Corners and the Pickering Innovation Corridor
(18,800 jobs), with a significant majority of it intended for the Pickering Innovation Corridor.
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The remainder of the employment growth forecast for the Seaton Urban Area is to be
accommodated within the Mixed Use and Commercial areas planned for in the Lamoreaux,
Brock-Taunton, Mount Pleasant, and Wilson Meadows Neighbourhoods. Much of this growth
will be in the form of “population-related” employment, which are jobs that exist to serve the
resident population including retail, education, health care, local government and urban work at
home. Prior to the COVID Pandemic, there was already a trend towards lower retail
employment as a result of growth in e-commerce and technological innovation such as self-
serve checkout kiosks in grocery stores. Declines in retail employment in “bricks and mortar”
establishments are likely to continue their relative decline but will be balanced by an increase in
remote working and health care employment, driven by the lingering effects of the COVID
Pandemic and aging of the population over time.
Employment uses are to be provided through the following designations:
• In office, manufacturing and service industries in the Prestige Employment designation;
• In office, retail and service industries in the Community Node and Mixed Corridor
designations and in small commercial stores in the neighbourhood nodes;
• In institutional and recreational facilities throughout the residential designations and
mixed use designations; and,
• As home occupations in all residential and mixed use designations (section 2.13.b).
It is intended that the Seaton Urban Area be planned as a sustainable urban community that is
compact, walkable, pedestrian focused, and contain a mix of uses that can adapt and evolve
over time (section 2.12). To achieve this, the City calls for the preparation of additional plans,
strategies, incentives, and controls (section 2.14). Further, the City has included policies
directed at the Provincial government for the appropriate and timely disposal of provincially-
owned lands to be consistent with the other policies with the local OP and the ROP (Section
2.15).
Economic Development Strategy
The economic development strategy set out in the OP addresses the existing and future needs
of the City’s ecological, urban, and rural systems. Encouraging existing businesses to take
advantage of opportunities from the interdependency of the City with Regional, national, and
global economies to become a major business and employment destination with quality local
jobs are key economic goals for the City (section 5.1). Objectives include supporting local
businesses, the creation of more jobs that provide for a more diverse economic base, provide a
range of locations for economic activities, and improve the balance between the City’s
residential and commercial-industrial tax base (section 5.2).
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The City aims to support job creation and diversification through targeting a range of economic
growth sectors as well as zoning that permits home occupations in all residential areas (section
5.3). As the City’s major new greenfield employment area, the Seaton lands will play a major
role in achieving these economic objectives especially for the attraction of new business
investment across the City’s key target economic sectors noted previously.
Support for local businesses is also a key policy of the City, through the improvement of
municipal assistance for business owners (section 5.4). Beyond the support for local businesses,
the City’s economic development efforts will be coordinated with the efforts of the Region in
promoting economic development (section 5.5). To further facilitate economic development,
the City is to maintain an up-to-date Economic Strategic Plan (section 5.6), establish a high
speed, broad band telecommunications network linking all residences, institutions, and
businesses (section 5.7), and to incentivize green building design for any new development in
the City Centre (section 5.8).
Employment Land Use Designations & Land Development Policies
In the City’s OP, Employment Areas are defined as the lands that have a significant
concentration of manufacturing, assembly, warehousing and/or related employment
opportunities (section 3.8.a)). In Schedule I – III Land Use Structure of the OP, the array of
designated land uses applied throughout Pickering are identified.
In accordance with the land use schedules and policies of the OP, the following land use
designations are intended for Employment Areas, distinguished by the mix of uses, operational
standards, design, and performance requirements:
• General Employment;
• Prestige Employment; and,
• Mixed Employment (section 3.8.c)
The permitted uses in each Employment Area sub-category are summarized, generally, in Table
3-2 of this Report.
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Table 3-2: City of Pickering Employment Area Land Use Permissions
Designation Planned Function Permitted Uses Prohibited Uses Other Policy Criteria
General
Employment
Intended to
support heavy
industrial uses with
some office and
community uses
• Manufacturing, assembly, processing of goods, service
industries, research and development facilities, warehousing,
storage of goods and materials, waste transfer and recycling,
waste processing, freight transfer, transportation facilities,
automotive and vehicle sales and repair
• Offices as a minor component of an industrial operation or
serving the area, limited personal service uses serving the
area, restaurants serving the area, retail sales as a minor
component of an industrial operation
• Community, cultural and recreational uses, and other uses
with similar performance characteristics that are more
appropriately located in the employment area.
N/A Lowest performance standards for site operation and appearance
required
Prestige
Employment
High visibility from
major freeways
and their proximity
to residential areas,
intended to
support light
industrial, office,
and community
uses
• Light manufacturing, assembly and processing of goods, light
service industries, research and development facilities,
warehousing, equipment and vehicle suppliers, automotive
and vehicle sales and repair;
• Offices, corporate office business parks, limited personal
service uses serving the area, restaurants serving the area,
retail sales as a minor component of an industrial operation,
hotels, financial institutions serving the area;
• Community, cultural and recreational uses, and other uses
with similar performance characteristics that are more
appropriately located in the employment area.
(in Seaton Urban Area)
• Retail stores including large format retail uses except
for convenience commercial, and retail sales as a
minor component of an industrial operation
• Outdoor storage
• Waste processing, waste transfer and recycling
facilities
• Freight transfer and similar trucking facilities
• Automotive and vehicle sales and repair
• Places of worship and elementary and secondary
schools (section 11.32)
Second highest performance standards for site operation and
appearance required
Locational criteria for personal service use, convenience commercial,
restaurants and financial institutions as ancillary uses (section 11.33).
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Designation Planned Function Permitted Uses Prohibited Uses Other Policy Criteria
Subcategory:
Prestige
Employment
General
N/A N/A (in Seaton Urban Area, Neighbourhood 20: Thompson’s
Corners & Neighbourhood 21: Pickering Innovation
Corridor)
• in addition to the prohibited uses in section 11.32,
warehousing shall be prohibited except for
warehousing accessory to a permitted use (section
12.22.e.i & section 12.23.a.i.A)
(in Seaton Urban Area, Neighbourhood 20: Thompson’s Corners &
Neighbourhood 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor)
• Freestanding office buildings require a minimum density of 2.0
Floor Space Index (FSI), and are located close to interchanges
within this designation. Development in the interim of no less than
0.5 FSI may be permitted if a development concept and
intensification plan is provided (section 12.22.e.ii & section
12.23.a.i.B)
(in Seaton Urban Area, Neighbourhood 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor)
• Despite the prohibition of outdoor storage in Section 11.32,
controlled outdoor storage may be permitted as an exception, on
lands being as Part of Lots 23 and 24, Concession 5, now Part 1,
40R-29998 and Part of Part 7, 40R-25010 (Kubota Canada Ltd.’s
manufacturing/assembly plant) and limited outdoor display of
finished equipment may be permitted (section 12.23.a.i.B)
Subcategory:
Prestige
Employment
Node
N/A N/A (in Seaton Urban Area, Neighbourhood 20: Thompson’s
Corners & Neighbourhood 21: Pickering Innovation
Corridor)
• in addition to the prohibited uses in section 11.32,
warehousing, and light manufacturing, assembly and
processing of goods shall be prohibited except in
combination with a permitted use in the same
building (section 12.22.e.ii & section 12.23.a.ii.A).
(in Seaton Urban Area, Neighbourhood 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor)
• permits, as an exception, controlled outdoor storage on lands
being Part of Lots 23 and 24, Concession 5, now Part 1 40R-29998
and Part of Part 7, 40R-25010
Mixed
Employment
Highly visible and
accessible locations
along main arterial
roads intended to
support a mix of
employment uses
All uses permissible in Prestige Employment area, as noted above. N/A Highest performance standards for site operation and appearance
required limited retailing of goods and services serving the area.
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Further to the Employment Areas land use policies in Chapter 3 of the OP is Chapter 11, which
contains detailed policies pertaining to the Seaton Urban Area. The objectives and policies in
Chapter 11 of the OP provide direction to implement and conform to the Central Pickering
Development Plan, which is detailed in Section 3.4.1 of this Report. The Central Pickering
Development Plan set out seven goals to guide development in the Seaton Urban Area, they
include: Natural Heritage; Cultural Heritage; Social, Institutional, Open Space and Recreational
Facilities; Transportation and Transit; Servicing; Employment; and, Housing and Mixed Use.
These goals are supported by additional policy guidance for the following objectives in the
Official Plan:
• Create Walkable, Transit Supportive Neighbourhoods Through Compact Development,
Integration of Mixed Use Development and Distribution of Parks and Recreational
Facilities (policies 11.1 – 11.16);
• Create a Transit, Cycling and Pedestrian Supportive Urban System with Pedestrian-
Oriented Roads, and fully integrated Cycling and Walking Networks (policies 11.17 –
11.30);
• Create Opportunities for Job Creation Particularly on the Employment Lands Concurrent
with Residential Growth (policies 11.31 – 11.36);
• Promote Environmentally Sustainable Building and Design Practices (policies
11.37-11.45);
• Provide for a Range of Housing Types and Densities that Meet the Needs of a Diverse
Population (policies 11.46-11.49);
• Protect the Seaton Natural Heritage System and Integrate it into the Neighbourhoods
(policies 11.50-11.59);
• Protect Cultural Heritage Resources and Archaeological Resources (policies 11.60-11.70);
• Create an Adaptive and Resilient Urban Community (policy 11.71); and,
• Neighbourhood Plan Implementation and Phasing (policies 11.72-11.74).
Throughout the City, additional restrictions on uses apply to the Prestige Employment land use
designation, including the prohibition of freight transfer and similar trucking facilities (section
11.32). This poses a limitation on the economic development opportunities of Seaton as freight
and logistics-related uses are anticipated to be significant economic drivers, as discussed in
other sections of this Report. In recent years, the City has had a number of requests for the
development of employment generating uses such as logistics and warehousing and distribution
uses on the Seaton employment lands. However, they have not been able to proceed forward
with development approvals for these because the large footprints associated with the types of
uses proposed would inhibit the ability of the City to achieve the provincial directives set out in
the CPDP since the job yield would be much lower than the 1 job for every 2 persons
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requirement. It is worth noting that there are other facilities that can operate and function
compatibly with prestige industrial uses (e.g. warehousing for consumer goods which would be
fully enclosed in well-designed and aesthetically pleasing buildings) and can yield significant job
numbers (for example, as discussed later in this report, some new facilities such as Amazon,
have achieved densities over 50 jobs per hectare; and, some of the new development in Seaton,
such as Kubota, are on target in terms of the job yield.). Ultimately, notwithstanding that it is
generally agreed that the CPDP review is long overdue, the City and Region are beholden to the
policy framework of the CPDP until such time as the CPDP is amended. This poses complications
in the present situation and does not provide opportunity for the City to capitalize on the
current opportunities, while at the same time preserving key prestige industrial nodes and
gateways within Innovation Corridor so that they remain available for office uses when the
market demand arises for this type of use. In the interim, the only mechanism to address this
situation is to put in place policy criteria and triggers for evaluation to allow for consideration of
some of these opportunities outside of the prestige industrial nodes where they would be
compatible with existing and future uses and where they could demonstrate how catalyst jobs
could be created elsewhere so that the overall goals of the City’s OP are achieved and the
objectives and targets of the CPDP are not undermined while the CPDP review is underway.
Within the Prestige Employment designation, if certain locational criteria can be met, additional
uses are permitted as ancillary uses, these include:
• limited personal service uses;
• convenience commercial;
• restaurants; and,
• financial institutions (section 11.33).
These uses are, however, limited as they must be located within nodal clusters or on the ground
floor level of an office building and must also be on arterial roads near a signalized intersection
with an adjacent transit stop. A main consideration for determining the full maximization of
possible Employment Area land uses in Seaton is reliant on understanding what the future
roadway network is anticipated to look like.
A critical OP policy for the development of the Employment Areas in the Seaton Urban Area is
the directive for job opportunities to be created via the first phase of development of the
Seaton Urban Area (section 11.34). As noted previously in this report, there is some
development underway within Seaton, including a new commercial plaza, Kubota and the Jerry
Coughlan Health and Wellness Centre, which is in keeping with the emerging market profile and
development interest in these key employment areas while upholding the critical and strategic
directions set out in the OP and CPDP. This policy holds that an initial minimum area of 80
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hectares of designated Prestige Employment land be serviced with trunk water and sanitary
servicing concurrent with servicing Neighbourhood 16: Lamoreaux, all planned through the
“Staged Servicing and Implementation Strategy” (section 11.34.a). The specific area proposed
for this first phase is located between Sideline 26/Whites Road and Sideline 22. In addition, this
development phase includes the concurrent construction of a new interchange with Highway
407/ETR and for Metrolinx to provide bus-rapid transit along Highway 407/ETR (section 11.34.b
& 11.34.c)—it is worth noting that at present the new interchange is constructed and Metrolinx
runs a Highway 407 express regional bus service with a stop at Brock Road. This infrastructure
supports the development of the Prestige Employment lands in Seaton.
Finally, the OP also provides direction for the creation of additional policy documents,
specifically Sustainable Placemaking Guidelines for Neighbourhoods 20: Thompson’s Corners
and 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor and for implementing Draft Plans of Subdivision to ensure
high performance design and sustainability standards are required for development (section
11.36). Through the OP, direction is also provided to require Neighbourhood Plans for
Neighbourhoods 20 and 21 to identify and protect for higher intensity employment uses near
the Highway 407/ETR Transitway stations in the Prestige Employment designation, which are to
be considered long-term intensification areas (section 11.35). The OP further encourages the
identified long-term intensification areas be used for increased office development via the
intensification of nearby commuter parking lots over time (section 11.35).
3.3.1.1 OP Policy Takeaways & Considerations
• There are three main land use designations that are used to guide development on
employment lands in Pickering, they are: General Employment, Prestige Employment,
and Mixed Employment. Prestige Employment in Seaton contains two sub-designations,
Prestige Employment General and Prestige Employment Node. The land use
designations all permit different ranges of industrial, office, retail, and institutional uses
with certain locational or operational criteria to adhere with. These land uses guide the
zoning by-law that then implements more specific development parameters such as
building height, building setbacks, and the details of the use.
• From a policy perspective, the economic strategy and vision are in alignment with the
Growth Plan. There is a unified vision for the development of employment lands as
transit-supportive with a compact built-form between the provincial, regional, and local
land use policies. When it comes to the more specific policies addressing employment
land uses, Pickering is currently facing limitations for best maximizing economic
development opportunities in line with the provisions in the Growth Plan as a result of
the limitations of the CPDP. In effect, the Growth Plan was amended and updated to
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reflect more recent market conditions and economic realities, while the CPDP was not
reviewed and updated concurrently.
• As noted previously in this report, the significant focus on office type uses within the
Seaton Employment lands may have consequences for the achievement of targets for
employment within the UGC and MTSAs, which is where the Growth Plan directs a
significant amount of office uses. This is not to say that office uses are not appropriate
for the Seaton lands, but it will be critical to strike a balance between the quantum of
office type uses in Seaton, the UGC and MTSAs in order to ensure a healthy overall local
job economy.
• Currently, retail uses are prohibited in the Prestige Employment designations, which is
aligned with the directives of the Growth Plan. The Mixed Employment designation,
which permits the same uses as Prestige Employment, does contemplate office uses and
has a planned function that directs development to be accessible and located along
arterial roads. This more closely adheres with the policy direction from the Growth Plan
and provides flexibility for the City to maximize economic development and employment
opportunities.
• Freight and warehousing and logistics are prohibited uses in the Prestige Employment
designation. While these are not typical uses that would be considered ‘prestige
industrial’, there have been considerable changes in the way these uses operate that
would, in some instances, be compatible with prestige type uses (for example
warehousing facilities for consumer goods. As noted previously, intermodal freight
facilities would be incompatible). Given the employment outlook described in Section
2.0 of this Report, and the supply and demand analysis described in Section 5.0 of this
report it is appropriate for the City to consider providing a more flexible policy
framework. This could take the form of establishing criteria under which warehousing
and logistics could be permitted in the Seaton Employment Area, while upholding the
foundations of the CPDP and without the need for amending the Official Plan and Zoning
By-law. This would allow the City to remain economically competitive and would not
conflict with broader Growth Plan directions which promote and support these types of
uses adjacent to Highway 407. Ultimately, there may be opportunities for the City to
achieve the employment targets without a strong focus on office-type uses by ensuring
the employment objectives are met directly or through catalysts to other jobs in the
City/ Region.
• A major constraint for development of the employment lands in Pickering, is the lack of
municipal servicing available to employment lands in Seaton Urban Area, particularly
given that the employment lands in Pickering East and Pickering West are virtually built
out, leaving Seaton the only option for new major employment development.
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Additionally, there are a number of front funding/ cost sharing agreements and
obligations in place that a prospective purchaser would have to incur which may in some
instances complicate the timing of development in Seaton. There is a policy directive
from both the ROP and local OP for employment lands to have access to municipal
servicing prior to development. This is a key factor in having ‘shovel ready’ parcels
available for industrial developers, which in turn is critical for achieving employment
growth targets in the allocated time frame and attracting and retaining new
employment uses. It will be prudent for the City to ensure servicing in Seaton is brought
on expeditiously.
3.3.2 City of Pickering Zoning By-laws
The Zoning By-laws of a municipality work as a means to implement the policies found within
the local Official Plan. In the City of Pickering, the lands are zoned according to six parent Zoning
By-laws. The following parent Zoning By-laws currently exist for Pickering:
• Zoning By-law 2511 & 2520 -Urban Employment areas (1963)
• Zoning By-law 3036 -Urban Mixed Use and Residential areas (1965)
• Zoning By-law 3037 -Rural and Open Space areas
• Zoning By-law 7364/14 -Seaton Urban Area (2014)
• Zoning By-law 7553/17 -Pickering City Centre (2018)
The City’s in-force Zoning By-laws include a number of zones that implement the policy
directions of the Official Plan and regulate development on employment lands and in
Employment Areas, which are summarized below:
• The Prestige Employment General (PEG) Zone permits light manufacturing, food
processing, business services, graphics and design, educational/research data and
communications uses, offices, ancillary retail sales, dry cleaning establishments, and
storage and warehousing as an accessory use. The zone is located in the Seaton Urban
Area (Zoning By-law 7364/14), within Neighbourhood 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor.
While office uses are permitted within the PEG zone, the overall intent is to
accommodate a range of industrial-type uses typically accommodated within prestige
employment areas, including integrated “campus-type” projects.
• The Prestige Employment Node (PEN) Zone permits business services, graphics and
design, educational/research, visitor and convention services data and communications
uses, offices, ancillary retail sales and the following uses provided they are located in an
office building: hotel, or multi-unit industrial building; commercial fitness/recreation
centres, medical offices, restaurants, bake shops, cafes, personal service shops, day care
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centres, dry-cleaning distribution stations, convenience stores and financial institutions.
This zone is located in the Seaton Urban Area (Zoning By-law 7364/14), within
Neighbourhood 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor (clustered adjacent to the Whites
Road-Highway 407 interchange). Industrial-type uses are not permitted, such as light
manufacturing and food processing, with the intent that the PEN Zone would be more
focussed on office-type uses along with other complementary activities such as visitor
and convention centres.
• The Prestige Employment – Heritage Lot (PE-HL) Zone permits graphics and design as
well as data and communications uses, offices, restaurants, bake shops, cafes, personal
service shops and day care centres located in the Seaton Urban Area (Zoning By-law
7364/14), within Neighbourhood 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor (located along
Highway 407).
• The Employment Service (ES) Zone permits the following uses, subject to certain
locational criteria: offices, commercial fitness/recreation centres, medical offices,
restaurants, bake shops, cafes, personal service shops, day care centres, dry-cleaning
distribution stations, convenience stores, financial institutions, gas bars. This zone is in
the Seaton Urban area (Zoning By-law 7364/14), within Neighbourhood 21: Pickering
Innovation Corridor (located on the east side of Sideline 24).
• The Storage and Light Manufacturing (M1) Zone permits recreational, commercial,
storage and light manufacturing, as well as railway trackage and loading facilities uses
within Pickering East and West Urban Employment areas (Zoning By-law 2511 and 2520).
It is noted that the “M1-1” site specific Zone is applied to majority of the West Pickering
employment area. This zone permits residential uses in the form of accessory dwelling
units, in addition to select light manufacturing and office uses (section 16.3.2).
• The Industrial (M2) Zone permits all uses permitted in the M1 zone, including limited
residential for a caretaker/ night watchman, commercial, and industrial on lands within
Pickering East Urban Employment areas (Zoning By-law 2511).
• The Yard Storage and Heavy Manufacturing (M2S) Zone applies to lands for all uses
found in the M1 and M2 zones, along with commercial, yard storage, industrial, as well
as railway trackage and loading facilities uses within Urban Employment areas (Zoning
By-law 2511 & 2520).
• The Public Service (M3) Zone permits specific public organizations, commissions, and
boards to use lands so zoned for a station, yard, building, park, or parkway within Urban
Employment areas (Zoning By-laws 2511 and 2520).
Table 3-3 provides a summary the permitted uses, prohibited uses, and planned function of the
employment lands zones in the City of Pickering:
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Table 3-3: City of Pickering Employment Zone Provisions
Zones Location Permitted Uses Prohibited Uses Other Pertinent Provisions/ Regulations
Prestige Seaton • Light manufacturing (i.e. assembly, processing, packaging • Retail stores Specific Uses permitted:
Employment Employment and fabricating wholly within an enclosed building) • Outdoor storage • Office
General (PEG) Area • Food processing (i.e. bakery, dairy, cannery, distillery, • Waste processing station, waste • Ancillary retail sales
Zone brewery, meat processor)
• Business services (i.e. industrial supply, industrial equipment
repair, contractor shop, service and repair shop)
• Graphics and design (i.e. printing, publishing, graphic design,
web design)
• Educational / research (i.e. community college, university,
trade school, training centre, adult education, laboratory
and research and development facility)
• Data and communications (i.e. film, radio and television
studio, call centre, data centre, programming and software
development, phone, phone and internet provider)
transfer station and recycling facilities
• Freight transfer, trucking terminals
and similar uses
• Vehicle dealership, vehicle repair shop
and automobile body shops
• Places of worship
• Elementary schools, secondary
schools and private schools (section
6.3)
• Dry-cleaning establishments
• Storage and warehousing as an accessory use
A maximum of 15% of the total gross leasable floor area of a use may be used for
ancillary retail sales (display and retail sale of products manufactured, fabricated,
processed or assembled on the premises). The maximum may be increased to 25%
provided the total gross leasable floor area of the use is less than 1,000 square
metres (section 6.2.d)
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Zones Location Permitted Uses Prohibited Uses Other Pertinent Provisions/ Regulations
Prestige Seaton • Business services (i.e. industrial supply, industrial equipment • Retail stores Specific Uses permitted:
Employment Employment repair, contractor shop, service and repair shop) • Outdoor storage • Office
Node (PEN) Zone Area • Graphics and design (i.e. printing, publishing, graphic design,
web design)
• Educational / research (i.e. community college, university,
trade school, training centre, adult education, laboratory
and research and development facility)
• Visitor and Convention services (i.e. hotels, Assembly,
Convention or Conference Halls)
• Data and communications (i.e. film, radio and television
studio, call centre, data centre, programming and software
development, phone, phone and internet provider)
• Waste processing station, waste
transfer station and recycling facilities
• Freight transfer, trucking terminals
and similar uses
• Vehicle dealership, vehicle repair shop
and automobile body shops
• Places of worship
• Elementary schools, secondary
schools and private schools (section
6.3)
• Commercial Fitness/ Recreation Centre*
• Medical office*
• Restaurant*
• Bake shop*
• Café*
• Personal Service Establishments*
• Day Care Centre*
• Dry-Cleaner's distributing station*
• Convenience store*
• Financial Institution*
• Ancillary retail sales
Uses with a * are only permitted within an office, hotel or other similar multi-tenant
industrial building.
A maximum of 15% of the total gross leasable floor area of a use may be used for
ancillary retail sales (display and retail sale of products manufactured, fabricated,
processed or assembled on the premises). The maximum may be increased to 25%
provided the total gross leasable floor area of the use is less than 1,000 square
metres (section section 6.2.d)
Prestige Seaton • Graphics and design (i.e. printing, publishing, graphic design, N/A Specific Uses permitted:
Employment – Employment web design) • Office; Medical office
Heritage Lot (PE-Area • Data and communications (i.e. film, radio and television • Restaurant
HL) Zone studio, call centre, data centre, programming and software
development, phone, phone and internet provider)
• Bake shop
• Café
• Personal Service Establishments
• Day Care Centre.
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Zones Location Permitted Uses Prohibited Uses Other Pertinent Provisions/ Regulations
Employment
Service (ES) Zone
Seaton
Employment
Area
N/A N/A Specific Uses permitted:
• Office
• Commercial Fitness/ Recreation Centre
• Medical office
• Restaurant
• Bake shop
• Café
• Personal Service Establishments
• Day Care Centre
• Dry-Cleaner's
• Distributing station
• Convenience store
• Financial Institution
• Gas bar, including an accessory car washing establishment, convenience store
and/or café.
Permitted uses shall be clustered on a lot with a minimum of 4 retail / commercial
units on a lot (section 6.2.a)
ES zones shall abut an arterial road and be located within 100 metres of a signalized
intersection and a transit stop (section 6.2.b)
Only one gas bar shall be located within 100 metres of a signalized intersection
(section 6.2.c)
Storage and Pickering East • Recreational (uses permitted in O1 and O2 only when • Retail stores and retail operations (as Site specific M1-1 Zone only permits: residential uses (accessory dwelling units);
Light and Pickering integrated with industrial subdivision) primary or accessory use) (section business offices, food preparation plants, light manufacturing plants, public uses,
Manufacturing West • Commercial (open air markets, public parking lots, a 16.1.5) scientific or medical laboratories, and warehouses (section 16.3.2)
(M1) Zone Employment
Area
business office, a professional office)
• Storage and Light Manufacturing (a service or repair shop, a
warehouse or distributing deport, a garage, a dry-cleaning/
pressing/laundry establishment, a creamery, a printing or
duplicating shop, a bakery, a dairy)
• Railway (railway trackage and loading facilities) (sections
16.1.1 – 16.1.4)
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Zones Location Permitted Uses Prohibited Uses Other Pertinent Provisions/ Regulations
M2 Pickering East
and Pickering
West
Employment
Area
• Commercial (open air markets, public parking lots, a
business office, a professional office)
• Storage and Light Manufacturing (a service or repair shop, a
warehouse or distributing deport, a garage, a dry-cleaning/
pressing/laundry establishment, a creamery, a printing or
duplicating shop, a bakery, a dairy, transport terminal for
the loading and unloading of transport vehicles)
• Residential uses, except for one
dwelling unit for a caretaker,
watchman, or other similar person
employed on the premises (section
17.1.1)
• Junk or salvage yard, an automobile
wrecking yard, or any uses deemed
noxious under the Public Health Act,
R.S.O. 1960, Chapter 321 (section
17.1.3.c)
• Retail stores and retail operations (as
primary or accessory use) (section
17.1.4)
N/A
Yard Storage and Pickering East • Commercial (a retail coal, fuel, oil, coke, wood or lumber • Retail stores and retail operations (as N/A
Heavy and Pickering yard) primary or accessory use) (section
Manufacturing West • Yard Storage (bulk storage of fuel oil, coal, coke, wood, 18.1.2)
(M2S) Zone Employment
Area
lumber, builders supply yard, construction material yard and
similar uses)
• Industrial (any industrial or manufacturing use not
prohibited by this or any other Zoning By-law)
• Railway (railway trackage and loading facilities)
• Salvage and wrecking yards, blood
boiling, soup boiling, tanning of hides
and skins, and other similar uses
deemed noxious under the Public
Health Act, R.S.O. 1960, Chapter 321
(section 18.1.4)
Public Service Pickering East • Any station, yard, building, park or parkway owned or used N/A N/A
(M3) Zone and Pickering
West
Employment
Area
by the Town [City] of Pickering, the County of Ontario, the
Province of Ontario, the Dominion of Canada, the Hydro-
Electric Power Commission of Ontario, the Bell Telephone
Company of Canada, any public railway company or any
Town [City] of Pickering School Board.
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3.3.2.1 Zoning By-law Policy Takeaways & Considerations
• In the designated Employment Areas in Pickering East and Pickering West, the most
prominent employment zones, in descending order are M1, M1-1, M2, M2S, with some
M3. Generally, given that these Employment Areas are virtually built out and in a mature
state, the future development potential in these areas would be through infill and
intensification of existing employment uses. As such, it is likely that the provisions of the
existing zoning in these areas are sufficient to support the City’s broader economic
development objectives moving forward.
• As noted previously in this report, there is a significant proportion of lands within Seaton
that remain zoned Agriculture in the Zoning By-law. In essence, this impacts the “shovel
readiness” of these lands. From an economic development and competitiveness
perspective, this is a critical challenge for attracting new employment development in
Seaton and could ultimately have implications with respect to achieving employment
targets within the stated timelines of the CPDP and other policy plans. Because the lands
are not currently appropriately zoned, any perspective employer would be required to
go through a Zoning By-law amendment, which could take anywhere from 6 months to a
year before the appropriate zoning is in place to allow for development to occur. It will
be important for the City to implement the appropriate zoning on all employment lands
in Seaton in the short-term to mitigate this challenge. The City is currently completing a
Comprehensive Zoning By-law Review (CZBLR) exercise, which would consolidate all
Zoning By-laws and ensure they are consistent with current legislation, guidelines, and
best practices for policy. The City may want to consider advancing implementing the
appropriate employment zones in Seaton prior to concluding the CZBLR exercise.
Another option would be pre-zoning the lands with a holding provision to provide a
platform for finalizing specific requirements to be dealt with through an expedited
process (site plan and application to remove the Holding provision).
• While there are various zones that permit employment uses throughout the City that
would allow for a range and mix of employment uses, the reality is that the majority of
the City’s existing employment lands are reaching maturity and full build out which
poses challenges for attracting and retaining certain types of uses that are currently in
demand such as warehousing and distribution. Accordingly, in order to remain
competitive, it will be important for the City to consider relaxing permissions in portions
of the Seaton Lands to permit a wider range of uses including warehousing and
distribution.
• As noted in the bullet above, and throughout this report, there are specific provisions
that further restrict and prohibit certain uses in the Seaton Employment Area. Within
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both the PEN and PEG zones, warehousing and logistics are not permitted. Based on
industry trends and demand for these types of uses, which are increasing; and, the
limited amount of employment land left in Pickering East and Pickering West to support
these types of uses, The City should consider the extent to which these uses are
permitted in Seaton within the PEG zone (the PEN zone should remain as-is, given the
specific planned function of this zone to ensure appropriate development of prestige
employment uses within nodes and gateways). This could take the form of establishing
policies within the OP that set out criteria under which warehousing and logistics could
be permitted and identifying those key node areas where land should be maintained for
office and other prestige industrial uses. It could also involve the application of a Holding
provision in the Zoning By-law so as to maintain the overall planned function of the
Seaton Employment Area and ensure achievement of specific targets related to jobs,
compatibility in use and the application of urban design principles to ensure buildings
appear in alignment with more prestige industrial type uses. Assessment of compliance
with these criteria would form part of an evaluation through a Site Plan application and
an application for removal of a Holding provision. This would provide flexibility to
address the market of today while maintaining sites over the long term for office uses.
Similar approaches have been applied and/or proposed in other jurisdictions, including
the Steeles-Redlea Regeneration Area and Oakville Green Health Oriented Mixed Use
Node.
3.3.3 Central Pickering Development Plan (2012)
In March of 2004, the Central Pickering Development Plan (CPDP) was enacted under section
2(1) of the Ontario Planning and Development Act, 1994. Following this, a Minister’s Zoning
Order pursuant to Section 47 of the Planning Act was also put in place, which covered a portion
of the Central Pickering Lands (the Duffins Rouge Agricultural Preserve) in Pickering. The CPDP
builds upon the existing policy framework established in the PPS, the Greenbelt Plan, and the
Growth Plan. The Development Planning Area that this plan affects is bounded by the CPR
Belleville Line in the south, Sideline 16/Pickering-Ajax boundary in the east, Highway 7 in the
north and the York-Durham Town Line in the west. At a policy-level, the directions of the CPDP
have been implemented by the City and incorporated into the Official Plan through Official Plan
Amendment 22 (OPA 22).
As part of the CPDP, a new vision for Central Pickering was crafted, which envisioned the
development of a sustainable urban community in Seaton that was integrated with a thriving
agricultural community in the Duffins Rouge Agricultural Preserve and an extensive Natural
Heritage System. Through the CPDP, 15 compact urban neighbourhoods were created to
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provide a range of residential, mixed-use, and employment uses connected with natural
heritage systems for the future residents. The CPDP is centered around eight (8) broad goals for
the Development Planning Area. The following outlines the goals of the CPDP:
• Natural heritage: The protection, maintenance and enhancement of natural features,
functions and systems intended to sustain a viable and permanent natural eco-system.
• Cultural heritage: The integration of cultural heritage into the new community fabric
• Agriculture: Ensuring that the Pickering portion of the Duffins Rouge Agricultural
Preserve is permanently protected for agricultural and conservation uses by fostering a
healthy near-urban agricultural community.
• Social, institutional, open space and recreational facilities: The provision of an
appropriate distribution of facilities to serve residents, workers and visitors, linked by a
network of parks and open spaces that complement the Natural Heritage System.
• Transportation and transit: The provision of a transportation system that provides for
choices in transportation mode and supports public transit.
• Servicing: Ensuring the provision of a network of utilities required to serve the new
urban community.
• Employment: The provision of high-quality employment opportunities that reflect the
needs of the community, with the identification of sufficient employment lands to
generate approximately one job for every two residents with 30,500 jobs by 2031 and up
to 35,000 jobs through long term intensification.
• Housing and mixed-use: The provision of a range of housing types and densities that
meets the needs of a diverse population, complements surrounding communities, and
accommodates a population of 61,000 residents by 2031 and up to 70,000 residents
through long term intensification at a density that is transit supportive.
For each of the 8 goals of the CPDP, there are a number of objectives outlined and policies to
direct land use planning matters for each goal. With respect to employment, the CPDP contains
the following objectives for employment:
• “Attract and sustain high quality employment opportunities that reflect the needs of the
Central Pickering community, the City of Pickering and the Regional Municipality of
Durham;
• Provide sufficient opportunity for employment in the Development Planning Area to be
balanced with population, with a ratio of approximately one job for every two residents;
• Designate suitable employment lands for prestige employment uses in areas of high
highway exposure and in proximity to the potential future airport;
• Facilitate entrepreneurial employment and home-based employment by providing a
range of opportunities for small businesses to grow and expand in appropriate settings
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within the new urban community;
• Ensure that employment areas are easily accessible by vehicle, transit, bicycle and on
foot;
• Ensure that large employment uses adjacent to residential uses are adequately screened
and/or separated by appropriate buffers to provide a visual barrier separate
employment uses generating substantial truck movements from residential uses, in
order to minimize truck traffic through residential neighbourhoods; and,
• Plan for a community that will accommodate 30,500 jobs by 2031 and 35,000 jobs in the
long-term” (section 4.7).
The policies of the CPDP indicate that the goals, objectives, policies and accompanying
schedules shall be reviewed every five years by the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing,
with the purpose of assessing the relevance and currency of the plan, including the scope of
coverage of the Development Planning Area, in light of the changing market, demographic,
social, environmental and economic conditions within Central Pickering. The last time the CPDP
was amended was in 2012—nearly 10 years ago. It was not subsequently updated concurrently
with the Growth Plan in 2017 and again as amended in 2019. Given the substantive global and
local market and economic changes in the past 10 years, as described in Section 2 of this report,
and the mounting pressures faced by the City to consider opportunities for employment uses in
Seaton that are either not permitted, or would impact the ability of Seaton to achieve the 1 job
for every 2 persons target set out in the CPDP, it may be prudent for the CPDP to be updated to
reflect these realities. However, in accordance with the policies of the CPDP, the need for an
amendment to the CPDP will be determined by, and at the sole discretion of, the Minister of
Municipal Affairs and Housing. Based on preliminary conversations with representatives of the
Ministry, it is understood that they are not looking at this time to amend the CPDP. This poses
significant challenges for the City in terms of remaining economically competitive in a changing
environment.
3.4 Past Studies Completed for the City
In addition to the policy framework outlined in previous sections, there have been a number of
development plans and economic development studies undertaken for Pickering which are
summarized in this Section.
3.4.1 Highway 407 (Seaton Lands) Economic Development Study
(Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2007)
The Highway 407 (Seaton Lands) Economic Development Study (Economic Development Study)
provides a proposed land use concept and implementation strategy for the Seaton Highway 407
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employment lands. Published in 2007, the Economic Development Study identified market
issues, economic development strategies, and policies that could maximize the economic,
social, and environmental benefits generated by the lands for the Province. At that time, there
did not appear to be much of a market for larger scale employment uses, such as warehousing
and distribution and logistics. The vision was crafted on the basis that there would be significant
office development and advanced manufacturing uses which would achieve the 2 to 1
employment ratio for Seaton. Section 2 of this Report provides a greater summary of the ways
in which the market has shifted that would indicate that a reconsideration of the 2007 work
may be warranted in a new economic and post-COVID context.
Further to the purpose of the Study, the preferred types of businesses for the area and
requirements for aiding marketing and servicing the lands are identified. Overall, the Hemson
Economic Development Study projected land absorption to average about 16 hectares (40
acres) per year with higher absorption levels after the area gains market profile. This formed the
basis for the employment targets and permitted uses in place today. It is anticipated that
Seaton will be largely built out in about 20 years from the commencement of development.
Based on the anticipated development commencement in 2010, this would see the Seaton
Lands largely developed by 203018. There have been delays in the development in the Seaton
Lands which would suggest that full development will be beyond the 2030 timeframe (the
Region’s GMS/MCR has maintained the target and extended this to be over the period to 2051).
The study also found that, in total, the lands located in the Seaton Highway 407 employment
lands area provide about 330 gross developable hectares of employment land. Dependent on
the employment density achieved at full build-out, it was expected that the Seaton Lands could
provide approximately 16,700 to 20,000 jobs. Other estimates by Hemson Consulting suggested
that the population-related employment in other parts of Seaton could result in up to 15,000
jobs, bringing the total potential employment of the Seaton to approximately 35,000. In the
present context, these estimates appear to be out of date. Prior to the COVID—19 pandemic,
population related employment ratios had been reduces as a result of on-line retailing and
automated checkouts. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated this as well.
Based on market conditions at the time, the 2007 report found that the major industries that
are anticipated to locate in the Seaton Lands are energy, auto, advanced manufacturing,
information technology, and other types of manufacturing, warehousing and assembly. In
addition, smaller industrial uses, such as commercial users within units in industrial multiples
are anticipated. This Study found that due to the location of the Seaton Lands in the eastern
18 As indicated in this Report, to-date the Seaton lands remain largely undeveloped, and may or may
not achieve the targets envisioned by the 2031 horizon.
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Greater Toronto Area (GTA), it is unlikely that a significant number of major warehouse
distribution uses will be attracted to the area; however, that additional types of employment
uses may one day locate within the Seaton Lands. As noted throughout this report, there have
been further changes in the broader economic and market context that further support the
need to provide opportunities for additional types of employment uses in Seaton. Additionally,
it is important to note that previous perceptions that warehousing uses could not exist
compatibly with prestige employment uses have changed over time as a result of the way in
which warehousing uses are built and designed in the present-day context (see Section 4.2.1
and 4.2.3 of this report for further discussion). Ultimately, the 2007 findings do not fully reflect
current conditions.
The Study indicates that a key factor in the future prospects for the Seaton Lands is the
availability of a range of potential parcel sizes with the potential for quick transportation access.
Due to the location of the Seaton Lands within the Durham Region, the Study determined there
is potential for additional opportunities for the area if the Pickering Airport is developed and
because of the proximity to the University of Ontario Technical University (UOIT). Most critical
for supporting the development of the Seaton Lands was found to be the need for water and
sewer servicing, along with new and improved highway interchanges and linkages. Essentially,
the findings of the study indicate the lack of “shovel readiness” of the Seaton lands is a limiting
factor of the realization of the vision for Seaton.
Through the Economic Development Study, a Proposed Land Use Concept was created. The key
features of the Land Use Concept (see Figure 3-4) are:
• Key sites are reserved for office-oriented development.
• Flexibility in land use is provided within the Prestige Employment Designation while still
promoting high quality development.
• Major warehouse-distribution uses are limited to an area in the northwest part of the
Study Area.
• Use of the natural heritage system as a cue for higher order office-focused uses.
• Provision of an interconnected road system to provide access to all development
parcels.
• Local road pattern providing for a balanced range of lot sizes and flexibility in
accommodating both small and large users.
• Continued reservation of rights-of-way for the future Highway 407 Transit way and the
ability to provide additional regional and local transit service” (Executive Summary B).
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To help implement the recommendations, the Economic Development Study advised that a
phased development process be established, which involved a number of items that needed to
be addressed by the City of Pickering, including:
• The provision of water and wastewater servicing for the lands around the Highway 407
interchange at Sideline 26 and lands to the west.
• Marketing initiatives and incentives to support development, such as the extension of
major trunk services from the Seaton residential lands through the employment lands
prior to selling large blocks of land to industrial developers and for provincial ministries
to assist in attracting initial major users of the Seaton Lands.
• Amending the OP, Zoning By-laws, and creating Urban Design Guidelines to provide
policy direction for the intended development of the Seaton Lands
• Improvements to the transportation systems, such as the widening of roads,
construction of new interchanges with Highway 407, as well as the addition of regional
and local transit service to the Seaton Lands.
Determining guidelines with land owners for sustainable development and incentives to
encourage developers to incorporate sustainable technologies within developments in the
Seaton Lands.
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LAND USE REVIEW
PROPOSED LAND USE CONCEPT FOR SEATON EMPLOYMENT LANDS (HEMSON CONSULTING LTD, 2007)
FIGURE 3-4
N
""' UJ z
SOURCE:
LEGEND
--
~
u.J z
:J w
Cl
in
PRESTIGE EMPLOYMENT
PRESTIGE EMPLOYMENT
OFFICE -ORIENTED CENTRE
PRESTIGE EMPLOYMENT EXPANDED USES
FRAGMENTED DEVELOPMENT SITES
LANDSCAPED INTERCHANGE
AREAS
<.O
N
-COMMUNITY NODE (CPDP)
MEDIUM DENSITY RES'L (CPDP)
LOW DENSITY RES 'L (CP DP )
PROPOSED 407 TRANSllWAY
STATION (1) -407 TRANSllWAY (1)
w z
:J w FEDERAL AIRPORT LANDS
Q en
HIGHWAY7
CONCESSION 5
(1) 407, Inte rc hanges , Transitway and Station areas as pe r dwg. "Hwy 407 ED Jan . 8/07"
recieved from ORC/MTO
(3) CPDP -Background Study -Stormwater Management, July 2005
(4) CPDP -Background Study -Servicing , July 2005
(2) CPDP-Background study -Cultural heritage, July 2005.Andre' Scheinman -Seaton
Built Heritage Assessment. Nov. 2004, Map 6 .1
(5) GTAA-Pi ckering A irport Draft Plan Report , Fig 5.3
(6) CPDP -Tra ns porta tion Network , Schedule 4
-·-·-·-STUDY AREA BOUNDARY -NATURAL HERTAGE SYSTEM ( CPDP) -ADDITIONAL LANDS REQUIRED FOR
407 TRANSITWAY STATION (1)
HAMLET -CULTURAL HERITAGE SITES (2) -STORMWATER MANGEMENT PONDS (3)
,~~
DILI..DN
CO SULTJ NG
59
Figure 3-4: Proposed Land Use Concept for Seaton Employment Lands (Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd, 200719)
19 The brown coloured area north of Higheay 7 and west of Sideline 30 is where Hemson suggested warehousing could be considered, but it was not carried through in the Neighbourhood Plan.
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3.4.2 Seaton Employment Lands Economic Development Study
Update (Hemson Consulting Ltd., 2015)
Published in 2015, the Seaton Employment Lands Economic Development Study Update
(Economic Development Study Update) provides an update to the Highway 407 (Seaton Lands)
Economic Development Study (2007) due to the revised forecast for employment lands in the
Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton (GTAH).
After the publication of the Economic Development Study in 2007, the market outlook for the
Seaton Lands, and the Canadian economy in general, was negatively impacted by the 2008-2009
economic recession. This resulted in significantly slowed demand for employment lands in
Pickering into the early 2010’s. Thus, the Economic Development Study Update took into
account the resurgence of the United States’ economy, the declining value of the Canadian
Dollar, and the sharp decrease in energy prices at the time to provide an updated outlook for
the development of the Seaton Lands.
The Economic Development Study Update noted that, due to the disruptions caused by the
2008-2009 economic recession for industrial and manufacturing-type employment uses, the
anticipated availability of development-ready parcels would be delayed until 2017. Despite this
development disruption, Hemson Consulting concluded that the Seaton Employment Lands are
anticipated to be the focus of major new greenfield employment development in the GTA East
employment land market as there is a limited supply of employment lands elsewhere in
Pickering and employment areas in the GTAH are aging. The Economic Development Study
Update found that the demand for employment lands in Pickering is expected to increase along
with population growth in the Seaton Community as the area presents one of the largest
greenfield residential development opportunities within the GTAH.
Overall, Hemson Consulting found there to be more lots with smaller configurations than the
anticipated market demand for small lot sizes. In the Economic Development Study Update, it
was noted that there is potential for lot consolidation to create larger parcels to accommodate
larger industrial uses in the future. As outlined in the previous 2007 Economic Development
Study, Hemson Consulting identified a variety of transportation improvements that were
intended to facilitate the development of the Seaton Employment Lands. The improvements
identified by Hemson Consulting included the widening and extensions of proximate roadways
(section II.B.1) and introduction of local, regional, and provincial transit initiatives that would
provide connections to and from nearby the Seaton Lands (section II.B.2).
In terms of servicing, plans and timelines were largely finalized at the time of the Economic
Development Study Update’s publication in 2015. The Region of Durham undertook an
Environment Assessment (EA) in 2010 to provide recommendations for roads, water, and
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wastewater infrastructure required to service all of Seaton. A phased approach to servicing was
determined via the EA, which is summarized below:
• The area to receive municipal servicing through Phase 1 are the lands located between
Sideline 26 and 22, which will encompass 13,350 residential units and approximately 80
hectares (200 acres) of employment lands20.
• The existing water services network must be expanded to provide service to the
employment lands in Seaton. To achieve this, it was determined that the network of
pumping stations and reservoirs would also have to extend to the Seaton Lands, or to
the northern limit of the Seaton Lands (see Figure 3-5).
• Wastewater servicing was anticipated to be available by spring 2017 for the employment
lands, dependent on residential development to the south.
• To support Phase 1 of servicing for the employment lands, Development Charges were
negotiated to provide funding for the necessary infrastructure.
o They would be a combination of Regional and local charges, while charges for
water and wastewater services would be an area-specific charge for the Seaton
lands.
o The Development Charges are to be calculated based on site area rather than
proposed building size, as a means to encourage higher density development
while discouraging developments with high building-to-site ratios.
• Following Phase 1, subsequent phases would provide for an additional 152 hectares (567
acres) of developable employment land.
• This Study highlighted the need for telecommunications infrastructure to be
implemented concurrently with other infrastructure development as it is also necessary
to attracting and supporting users of the employment lands (section II.D).
The Economic Development Study Update confirmed that the planning policy framework,
including the PPS, Amendment 1 to the CPDP (2012), updated regulations for Airport lands,
Regional and local OPs, as well as the Zoning By-laws all enable the development of Phase 1 to
proceed. While this may have been the case in 2012, certain issues specifically around
permitting warehousing and development, which may have been emerging at the time, were
not captured in the update to the CPDP. In the context of today, where the pressures for
warehousing and distribution development and other land intensive industrial uses are more
prevalent and pervasive, the framework of the CPDP has become a barrier to the City’s
economic competitiveness and put them in circumstances where prospective industrial
developers have had to look elsewhere for suitable land that would permit these types of uses.
20 Seaton developers were required to bring trunk services through a previous agreement. Extending
pipes to service individual properties is the responsibility of the new property owners.
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ICKERING LAND USE REVIEW
SEATON SERVICING SYSTEM PLAN (HEMSON CONSULTING LTD , 2015)
F IGURE 3-5
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Ja nuary 14 , 2022
DILLON
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62
Figure 3-5: Seaton Area Servicing System Plan (Source: Hemson Consulting Ltd, 2015)
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3.5 Summary of Policy Context and Gaps
To support employment growth for a successful economic future, the planning policies at the
provincial, Region, and City level are critical. Overall, there is a desire for compact development
and increased employment growth that respects and enhances the existing natural heritage.
Previous economic development studies anticipate that industrial, assembly, warehousing,
some office, and commercial uses will be key in meeting these objectives. The following outlines
the opportunities and gaps with respect to the policy context and the optimization of
employment land in Pickering:
• The PPS, 2020 and the Growth Plan indicate the requirement for the Region of Durham
to identify long-term employment and population projections to 2051.
o The ongoing Regional MCR/ GMS process has determined that there is a lack of
available employment lands in the Region to support the targets set out in the
Growth Plan. Settlement Area Boundary Expansions are anticipated to support
the population and employment growth targets from the Growth Plan.
o At present, the Region has yet to release population and employment growth
targets for the City of Pickering, which precludes a robust assessment and
recommendations for how to best accommodate increased population and
employment growth to realize the full potential of employment lands in
Pickering. However, it does put the City at an advantage to begin dialogue and
discussion with the Region with respect to allocations for employment based on
the work completed in this Report.
• A considerable gap identified in previous reports, and confirmed through the analysis
conducted in this update, is that the development of the Seaton Employment Lands can
only commence once the necessary servicing infrastructure is in place to support users,
as recommended in the 2015 Economic Development Study Update. At present, most of
the Seaton Employment Lands do not have waste water, water, or telecommunications
infrastructure in place thus hindering their “shovel-readiness” and ability to attract
major employers.
o Given the time that has passed since the publication of the Economic
Development Study Update, the City has the opportunity to reassess the
servicing strategy and timeline to support development. However, in any
circumstance, it is critical that the servicing of the Seaton employment lands be
expedited, particularly given that the remaining lands in the Pickering East and
Pickering West Employment Areas are virtually built out.
• There are also implications for Regional employment land needs if Seaton is unable to
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achieve the optimistic employment targets set out in the CPDP. Overall Regional
employment growth would be below forecast and employment land need would be
understated. This result would not conform to the Growth Plan or mandated LNA
method which requires that municipalities provide a sufficient supply of employment
lands to accommodate the industry requirements of all types of users
• To address this challenge, there is an opportunity to amend the Official Plan to allow for
more flexible policy and regulatory framework that considers and permits a wider range
of employment uses within the Seaton lands, while still maintaining conformity with the
CPDP, in the absence of the Ministry initiating a review and amendment. As noted in
other sections of this Report, similar approaches have been applied elsewhere whereby
specific targets and requirements for development have been set out in Policy and
Zoning with a Holding provision, which would require an applicant submit studies to
demonstrate how targets will be achieved as part of an application prior to the H being
removed (Steeles-Redlea Regeneration Area and Oakville Green Health Oriented Mixed
Use Node). This could advance economic development goals and competitiveness of
employment lands, while in keeping with both the policies Growth Plan, CPDP and
overall planned function of the Seaton lands until such time as the CPDP is updated to
reflect the current realities.
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4.0 Trends in Employment Land
Development
4.1 Economic Trends in Relation to COVID-19
The current Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has had significant and far-reaching global
economic impacts. All economic sectors have been affected, some more so than others, and the
full extent of the pandemic’s aftermath is yet to be seen. As explained in the Regional MCR/
GMS work and elsewhere, the overall effect of COVID-19 has been to accelerate a number of
changes in work and industry that were already in place before the Pandemic. These are
summarized, in brief, below.
4.1.1 Rise of e-Commerce and Surge in Logistics Demand
Prior to COVID-19, traditional “bricks and mortar” retail platforms had already been under
pressure from on-line retailing for some time. On-line retail sales have been rising in Canada
and other jurisdictions for many years, with the effect that overall demand for retail square
footage has effectively been ‘transferred’ to industrial land and building space. Other elements
of e-commerce including the ‘sharing’ economy, food and grocery delivery and other goods-
based delivery platforms have further contributed to this transition.
Growth in e-commerce had already been driving a well-documented surge in demand for
distribution space close to major urban centres, including in the GTHA. As noted in the Regional
MCR/ GMS work, the goods movement sector has been focused in large employment areas
within the Regions of Peel, York and Halton, with good highway access to the major trade
corridors and markets in the US.
Historically, the GTA East has generally not participated in the logistics market to the same
extent as other communities to the west. However, this dynamic has shifted in recent years
with the establishment of large distribution facilities such as Amazon, Panattoni, Toyota and
others that are currently in the pipeline. As noted, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated this
trend significantly, as lockdown mandates have expanded the rate of acceptance for on-line
retailing well beyond what many thought was possible.
As a result, the current industrial market is characterized by historically low vacancy, steadily
increasing rental rates, and strong occupier demand. As the supply of available sites in more
mature and established areas is steadily consumed, demand is being pushed to new locations
including the Region of Durham. There is no evidence that these trends are changing and may in
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fact accelerate, further reducing employment density and increasing demand for large parcels
of accessible development lands in greenfield locations.
4.1.2 Improved Outlook for Manufacturing
Since the 2008-2009 recession, manufacturing employment has stabilized and output (as
measured by GDP) has increased. According to the Conference Board of Canada, the
performance of the manufacturing sector has actually improved since 2009. While evolution in
the manufacturing will continue, and plants will close from time to time, the magnitude of
employment declines that occurred in the past are not expected to be repeated.
On the contrary, the outlook for manufacturing has likely improved. One of the most significant
impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic has been a disruption of global supply chains causing
manufacturing delays affecting nearly all industries. The result of these disruptions has been a
renewed interest in domestic supply chain resilience that could lead to an increased demand for
local manufacturing facilities and associated logistics support.
In our view, there is likely to be a much greater interest in the manufacturing sector moving
forward, driven by changes to the supply chain to source more locally. Some sub-sectors have
the potential to outpace expectations, especially as rates of technology adoption and the
economics of small-scale local production improve. Two of the more likely outcomes are an
increase in the near-shoring and reshoring of manufacturing capacity and increased automation
to lower production costs and limit vulnerability to health risks.
The outlook for the goods producing sector is more positive under this scenario, but likely with
fewer employees (and more robots) relative to the past. This expectation bodes extremely well
for the Region and City of Pickering given its unique focus on energy, manufacturing and
technology, but likely means less jobs overall. However, its contribution in terms of output and
as a catalyst along the supply chain will remain significant.
From a planning and economic development perspective, there is no question manufacturing
will play a role in new building space requirements, though the overall amounts may be unclear.
While some sectors of the manufacturing sector have the potential to outpace expectations, it
remains a sector at high risk for change and disruption. New space demand will likely be off-set
by the simultaneous repurposing of older manufacturing space, as has been the case for many
years, to accommodate a wider range of employment uses.
4.1.3 Shifting Major Office Market
Prior to COVID-19, one of the key features of growth and development in the GTHA has been
the surge of major office development in downtown Toronto. Pre-pandemic, most of the
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existing inventory and almost all of the pipeline of new office development in the GTA (nearly
11 million square feet of space) was concentrated in the City of Toronto. This concentration of
offices generally had the effect of reducing new space demand across other parts of the GTHA,
including the Region of Halton, York, Peel, Durham and the City of Pickering.
Notwithstanding an extended period of COVID-19 related vacancies, the attraction of the
Toronto office market will remain. Recently this has become apparent in gradual return of
workers as shown by increased leasing activity and increased foot traffic. A number of other
large space occupiers have signaled their confidence in the return to the office by way of
announcements on return dates and mandatory vaccination for employees.
Over the longer-term, however, the major office market is expected to cycle back to a more
even balance between Toronto and established suburban nodes in southern York, Peel and
Halton, as well as emerging markets in Durham and Hamilton. A number of activities have
relocated from downtown Toronto to more affordable communities and there are recent signs
of a current uptick of tenants looking to move out of Toronto.
Prior to COVID-19, there was also a long-standing increase in the ‘densification’ of office space
especially for large new building in Toronto: a trend that has at least paused and will likely
moderate over time given the current interest in distancing and COVID-19 safe workplaces.
Other things being equal, this will likely lead to a great need overall for office space and
evolution in the types and function of new space provided.
Increases in remote working have also led to an interest in a range of new office models: the
‘hub and spoke’ concept, for example, which is characterized by a small central office
augmented by other smaller offices or co co-working space closer to where employees live.
Other models include central and/or regional offices combined with an array of co-working and
meeting spaces, supported by virtual meeting technology.
These trends, along with the overall attraction of new suburban office markets from a real
estate cost perspective bodes well for the future of office growth. They likely do not, however,
bode well for older and traditional tower locations with large numbers of small, cubicle-based
work stations rather than a destination with an attractive purpose.
4.2 Trends in Land Use and Building Space
The evolution of employment is driving a number of trends in the recent pattern of land use and
real estate development, especially for major office and industrial industrial-type buildings.
Some of these trends have been accelerated by the COVID-19 Pandemic in the short-term, and
many of which are likely to at least continue and, in some cases, accelerate moving forward.
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These are summarized below.
4.2.1 Offices are increasingly Occupying non-Office forms (likely to be
accelerated)
Partly in response to the recent concentration (and rising cost) of major office space, an
emerging trend in many communities outside the City of Toronto has been a broadening of the
built forms in which office uses are choosing to locate, including co-working, flex space and
industrial multiples.
The prevalence of this type of space has become more widespread across the GTHA, including
Durham Region and Pickering, and is likely to be accelerated by the COVID-19 situation as users
explore new office models. In many ways, these office uses represent a different part of the
market demand for lower-cost and high amenity work environments.
These facilities tend to be well-located relative to the road and highway network, and in some
cases on existing or planned transit. Compared to traditional tower locations, they tend to offer
a better signage opportunity, parking ratios and the potential for more open work
environments and units are frequently in large buildings that include warehousing capability
which makes them attractive to a range of users.
It is generally expected that the flex space market and other small scale office forms will
continue to grow as new flexible work models evolve. Demand for co-working or other types of
collaborative innovation space is also expected to accelerate as a result of the COVID-19
pandemic, as more firms move to a work model with multiple locations and facilities.
Office uses are also being integrated in new buildings as part of larger manufacturing or
warehousing spaces, increasing overall density. As noted in the Regional MCR/ GMS work,
demand for office in greenfield employment areas is increasingly single-tenant (rather than
competitive space) integrated with multi-purpose facilities. Many of the growing sub-sectors in
advanced manufacturing such as energy, technology and clean technology require larger sites in
a “campus style” setting to accommodate a mix of offices and other industrial uses such as
warehousing and logistics (see Honda HQ in Markham as example) Ultimately, this is somewhat
in conflict with Growth Plan policies to direct offices to the UGC and MTSA, as discussed
elsewhere in this report. However, demand for office in employment areas must also be
considered.
4.2.2 Buildings are Larger and More Efficient than in the past (likely to
continue)
Although lower in density from an employment perspective, the nature of industrial buildings
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has changed considerably over the last 20 years. New industrial buildings today are much larger
and more space efficient than their predecessors.
Since the early 1980s, clear heights have steadily increased from around 12 to 20 feet to 36 feet
and above, which has now become the industry standard. Lot coverage factors have also
generally crept up over this time, from around 35% to as high as 45% or 50% in some central
GTHA employment areas.
These shifts in built form have led to a significant densification of job space and increase in the
intensity of usable interior space of the past 20 years (in some cases, more than triple the
amount of an older building on the same-sized site). Additionally, the price of serviced lands in
these targeted lands mandate much less land being allocated to non-revenue generating uses,
such as buffer and landscaping with much more process activity in the main building.
4.2.3 Other Models of Warehouse/Industrial Building Design are
Emerging
Other models of warehouse and industrial building design have also started to emerge more
recently, including:
• Urban Hybrid Industrial, in the form of small infill projects typically a mix of stacked
strata office units and industrial space at grade. These types of buildings are starting to
emerge in the City of Vancouver, see Figure 4-1, in an effort to encourage the growth of
technology and service-related businesses in older employment areas.
• Localized distribution hubs in central areas for large retailers to address “last mile”
distribution challenges and remain competitive on delivery times, see Figure 4-2. At the
same time, some existing “bricks and mortar” retail are also becoming sub-distribution
centres for e-commerce activities, further transferring space demand to industrial
facilities; and
• Large-scale multi-storey industrial and ultra-high ceiling buildings with stackable heights
of up to 100 feet and extensive automated storage and retrieval systems. Currently
large-scale multi-storey distribution facilities are limited to denser urban areas in Europe
and Asia and only just beginning to emerge in large US cities. Ultra-high ceiling buildings,
however, are expected to become more common in Canada over time, especially in
Vancouver, Toronto and other major urban centres with surging demand for distribution
space, see Figure 4-3.
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71
Figure 4-3: Blume Canada Automated Warehouse with Showroom and Training Centre
(Mississauaga, ON)
(Source: Image from Google Street View)
4.3 Growth Trends and Observations
The City of Pickering has averaged a total of approximately 44,000 square metres (475,000
square feet) of non-residential development activity annually over the period from 2013 to
2021, representing around one-third of the overall Durham Region average of approximately
135,000 square metres (1.5 million square feet) over a similar period. Table 4-1 provides a
summary of recent permit activity.
Table 4-1: Summary of Non-Residential Development Activity by Major Sector
Year Commercial GFA
(Square Metres)
Industrial GFA
(Square Metres)
Government and
Institutional GFA
(Square Metres)
Total GFA (Square
Metres)
2013 2,074 15,973 9,857 27,904
2014 4,255 300 11,132 15,687
2015 1,781 1,372 0 3,153
2016 4,619 4,056 1,711 10,386
2017 7,930 10,699 7,386 26,015
2018 16,827 430 4,754 22,011
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Year Commercial GFA
(Square Metres)
Industrial GFA
(Square Metres)
Government and
Institutional GFA
(Square Metres)
Total GFA (Square
Metres)
2019 119,276 5,803 0 125,079
2020 145,976 1,593 0 147,569
2021 0 16,967 1,944 18,911
2013-2021 302,738 57,193 36,784 396,715
Average 33,638 6,355 4,087 44,079
Share of
Total (%)
76% 14% 9% 100%
As shown, most of the space added has been Commercial (76% of the total). Industrial building
activity has been a small share of the total (14% of the total) followed by Government and
Institutional space (9% of the total). The focus of recent development activity on population-
related uses reflects the City’s central location and proximity to the City of Toronto, as well as a
very limited supply of developable employment area lands to accommodate industrial-type
growth: largely the result of unexpected delays in bringing the Seaton employment lands to
market as planned.
At a regional level, recent non-residential development has been distributed more evenly across
the major sectors, as illustrated by Figure 4-4 below, largely as a result of more readily available
industrial lands in the other urban communities of Ajax, Whitby and Oshawa.
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rce : Du rham Reg io n bu i ld ing perm its , de r iv ed
by Watson & Associates Eco nom ist s Ltd ., 202 1.
73
Figure 4-4: Durham Region Non-residential Development by Major Sector (2011-2019)
In more recent years, the City has seen an uptick in commercial permits especially in 2019 and
2020 as a result of Durham Live, a major mixed tourist-related employment use anchored by
the Casino District, and ultimately anticipated to accommodate upwards of 10,000 jobs at full
development, including 150,000 square feet of retail space, restaurants, a hotel and a major
film studio. Although the relative share of industrial building activity has been relatively low,
there are a number of notable developments and proposals that speak to an uptick here as well,
including, but not limited to21:
• Kubota Canada Limited: constructed an integrated campus-style facility on 27 hectare
site within the Seaton Innovation Corridor, comprising 500,000 square feet
manufacturing facility as well as an additional 65,000 square feet head office as the first
phase of the development. It is understood that an additional 200,000 combined square
feet of new office space, in two adjacent buildings, is also being contemplated as well as
a new hotel and convention facility;
21 An industrial warehouse has also recently been completed, and is fully tenanted, located at 905
Sandy Beach Road; and, there is an active application for a 250,000 square foot industrial space at
1505 Streamside Court
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• TriBro Studios: to construct, at full development a 400,000 square foot studio facility, in
the short-term comprising two large 70,000 square foot sound stages, as well as a
100,000 square foot stage and a 50,000 square foot stage along with associated office
space longer-term, as part of the large Durham Live complex noted previously
• FGF Brand: poised to purchase a total of 149 acres within Innovation Corridor to create a
manufacturing campus along Highway 7, which is anticipated to create 1,200 new full
time jobs over time with construction anticipated to begin by 2023;
• Hi-Tech Bay: which is currently located in Scarborough and will be relocating to Pickering
with plans to construct 3 separate facilities of 100,000 square feet each, bringing over
200 high tech jobs to Pickering; and,
• Amazon Canada: a site plan application has been submitted to construct a 180,000 sq. ft
“last mile” delivery and sorting facility in the Brock Industrial Park, on an underutilized
site formerly occupied by the Pickering Market. The facility is anticipated accommodate
approximately 200 jobs on a 16-ha site, which translates into a relatively low density of
approximately 12 jobs per net ha, as well as support additional jobs and economic
activity through local delivery partners.
4.3.1 Durham Region Growth Trends
Growth trends across Durham region are explained in detail in the Regional Growth
Management Technical Reports, especially the Region’s Employment Strategy (Chapter 3). Of
particular relevance to the outlook for Pickering and the Seaton lands are the following
conclusions:
• Employment overall has grown steadily over the past 20 years, from 190,000 jobs in
2001 to nearly 240,000 in 2018, as shown in Figure 4-5. The activity rate (the ratio of
population to employment) of approximately 35% is relatively low compared to other
municipalities in the GTHA and has declined somewhat over time, reflect the Region’s
historic role as more of a ‘bedroom’ community that the other ‘905’ regions to the west.
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%
36 % 36 %
300 ,000 • • ~4% 34 % 34% 35 % • • •
238 ,400
Q) ro -223 ,600 30 % o::: C 2 11 ,300 2 12 ,000 Q) ~ E 200 ,000 190 ,000 "> >, n _Q
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Note: Employment activity rate is based on population including the net Census undercount.
Source: 2001 to 20 16 derived from Sta tistics Canada Place of Work data . 2019 an esti mate by W atson & Associates Econom ists Ltd.
75
40
Figure 4-5: Durham Region Non-residential Development by Major Sector (2011-2019)
(Source: Durham Growth Management Study: Land Needs Analysis)
Although employment has grown over time, the currently estimated 2021 employment of
approximately 242,000 jobs remains well below the anticipated employment in the Regional
Official Plan of 350,000 jobs. Like the original Growth Plan forecasts, the 2012 forecasts also
overestimated growth to 2021, in part because of the unexpected delay in the development of
the Seaton Employment lands.
With respect to the type of growth, the work conducted by the Region through the MCR/ GMS
points to a number of emerging industry and labour force trends that have been accelerated by
the current COVID-19 Pandemic, including:
• Continued disruption of “bricks and mortar” retail establishments driven by the rise of
e-commerce activity. The anticipated impact of this disruption going forward is a relative
reduction in the need for new retail space, accelerating an existing trend towards
increased automation within existing retail environments, reducing population-related
employment.
• The repositioning of existing retail assets to accommodate a wider range of use,
especially older well-located shopping malls also appears to be accelerating. There are
numerous examples in the GTHA of large retail owners seeking to intensify (with
residential uses) and expand around existing offerings rather than build new, including
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C 60
0 60 .....
0.. ._
47 0 50 45 Historical Cl)
..0 Average , 32 <(
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Source : De ri ved f rom Durha m Reg ion bu ilding permit and land supply data , by Watso n & Associates Eco nomists Ltd ., 2021 .
76
the SmartCentres Pickering proposal to redevelop a part of the Pickering lands at the
intersection Brock Road and Pickering Parkway, among many others.
• Accompanying the shift towards on-line shopping has been growing demand within the
warehousing and distribution sector to serve the growing regional population base.
According to the Regional MCR/ GMS work, recent demand for industrial space is largely
associated with growth in the distribution and logistics sector. When coupled with
record high rents and low vacancy noted earlier, the shift continues to drive the need for
new industrial development and demand for competitive greenfield employment lands.
• This demand trend is compounded by the continued recovery in the manufacturing
sector, particularly Advanced Manufacturing, consistent with broader regional and
Provincial trends noted previously. Of particular relevance are opportunities within the
EN3 and Clean Energy Sector, consistent with the Region’s objective to transition to
clean energy by 2051 and supporting investment in other economic sectors that will also
require employment lands.
From development perspective, employment land absorption has averaged approximately 32
net hectares (79 net acres) per year over the 2011 to 2019 period. Below, Figure 4-6 depicts the
employment land absorption rates.
Figure 4-6: Employment Land Absorption 2011 – 2019 (Source: Durham Growth Management
Study: Land Needs Analysis)
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Smaller and medium sized parcels accounted for nearly all of this demand (77% of the total)
with only a relatively limited share of larger 5 to 10ha parcels (13%) and greater than 10 hectare
parcels (10%) absorbed over the period. These trends are unlike other GTHA municipalities to
the west where average employment land absorption has been higher. For example, in York
Region, absorption has ranged in the order 70 net hectares per year since 2011. The absorbed
parcel sizes also tend to be larger, for example in the Region of Halton where nearly half of the
employment land absorbed was for large parcels greater than 10 hectares in size. These trends
confirm the findings of prior studies that the Durham market to date has been characterized by
somewhat slower absorption and smaller site sizes.
4.4 Summary of Observations
Based on the current Economic Context and review of Trends in Employment Land
Development, a number of key themes are apparent, which help set the context for the
discussion of employment land demand that is provided in the next section. In particular:
• The rise of e-commerce and surge in logistics demand has been extraordinary by any
measure. While the current pace of growth should moderate as the economy
(eventually) returns to a ‘new normal’, there is general consensus that strong demand
warehousing and distribution will remain beyond the current cycle. The outlook is
positive for both greenfield and intensification scenarios, as shown by the Amazon “last
mile” infill project noted previously.
• The outlook for manufacturing is also quite promising, especially advanced
manufacturing, driven by the imperative to “bring supply chains home” and source more
inputs locally. This bodes well for the City’s key target sectors and Clean Energy industry.
However, future growth will likely not be accompanied by significant new jobs as
automation and other labour-saving technologies become a bigger part of the picture.
• Throughout the GTHA, there is an expectation that the major office market will return to
a more even distribution between downtown Toronto and established and emerging
nodes including the Region of Durham. While the future is unknown, there is a general
consensus that more space per worker (i.e. lower densities) and a more dispersed
pattern of smaller offices or co-working space in accessible locations is one of the likelier
outcomes.
• These trends bode well for the future of office growth both on employment lands and
other locations in the community, such as urban mixed-use environments. To, date
many of the locations identified for more intensive, transit-oriented development within
a Growth Plan context have not met expectations, especially those relying on significant
major office growth. New opportunities, however, are expected to emerge as ‘hybrid’
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work models drive demand for more flexible office/industrial facilities in central
locations.
• New models of industrial warehousing have also emerged, which are much larger and
space efficient. For the GTHA, the evolution towards large-scale multi-storey distribution
facilities is likely a much longer-term proposition. Ultra-high ceiling models are the more
likely next step in the densification of logistics, with interesting examples already
emerging in the Vancouver and Toronto areas to the west.
Local growth and development trends show a somewhat slower and relatively more population-
oriented pattern of growth, which is consistent with a constrained supply of available lands to
accommodate industrial-type growth. This pattern is anticipated to shift over time as the Seaton
lands come on stream and other major commercial projects – such as Durham Live and other
significant redevelopment proposals which contribute to additional development momentum
across all economic sectors and building types over the period to 2051.
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5.0 Demand and Supply Analysis
5.1 Employment Growth Outlook by Type
From an overall employment perspective, the Region and City are tracking behind previous
expectations for employment growth. As noted, however, for the City this situation is explained
by the very limited supply of available employment area lands and generally delays in the
development of the Seaton area. Once the Seaton lands come on stream, both the population
and employment growth profile in the community will change dramatically.
The 2020 Growth Plan anticipates that employment in Durham will reach a total of 460,000 jobs
in 2051. This forecast represents an increase of over 220,000 jobs, which represents a
significant acceleration; approximately double the amount that has occurred over the last 20
years. Under the Growth Plan forecast, net out-commuting decreases and the current Activity
Rate (the ratio of population to employment) stabilizes at around 35%. In accordance with
standard land needs analysis, employment is allocated to the four main land use planning types:
Population-related employment: which are jobs that exist primarily to serve the resident
population in sectors such as retail, education, health care, local government and work-at -
home employment, the vast majority of which are located in community areas;
Major Office Employment: jobs contained within free-standing buildings more than 20,000 net
square feet in size (1,858 sq. m). This definition differs from the size threshold of 4,000 square
metres used in the Growth Plan for other planning policy purposes;
Employment Land Employment: jobs accommodated primarily in industrial industrial-type
buildings. The vast majority are located within business parks and industrial areas. However,
some jobs can be found in older community areas and rural locations; and
Rural-based employment. Jobs scattered throughout rural lands that typically include primary
and other agriculture-related uses, small manufacturing or construction businesses run from
rural properties and some associated retail, service or commercial uses. In the Regional MCR/
GMS work, jobs associated with temporary foreign workers in the agricultural sector are largely
captured within the rural-based employment category.
The categorization of the existing base and forecast Growth Plan employment to 2051, by
Census period, from the Regional MCR/GMS work is reproduced below in Figure 5-1, for
convenience.
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
Dillon Consulting Limited & Lorius and Associates Final Report-May 2022
2016
2019
2021
2026
2031
2036
2041
2046
2051
2019-2051
2021
2051
2019-2051
Major Office
11 ,700
12,300
12 ,700
15 ,300
19 ,500
24 ,000
28 ,600
34,400
41 ,100
28,800
5%
9%
13%
Employment
Land
Employment
69,400
71 ,800
72,300
85 ,900
97 ,900
109,000
121 ,300
136,400
153,400
81,600
30%
33%
37%
Popu lation-
Related Rural Total
Employment
127 ,600 14 ,900 223,600
138 ,500 15 ,900 238,400
140 ,500 16 ,100 241,700
155 ,200 16 ,500 272,900
173 ,200 16 ,800 307,400
190 ,500 17 ,200 340,700
207 ,100 17 ,600 374,500
226 ,900 18 ,100 415,800
247 ,000 18 ,600 460,000
108,500 2,700 221,600
58% 7% 100%
54% 4% 100%
49% 1% 100%
Note : 20 16 deri ved from Statistics Ca na d a Place of Work data . 2051 tota l employm ent confo rms to A Pla ce to Gro w :
Growth Plan for th e Greate r Golden Horseshoe . Offi ce Conso lida tion. Aug ust 20 20.
Figures ma y not add to totals d ue to round in g .
Source : W atson & Associates Econo m ists Ltd ., 2021 .
80
Figure 5-1: Durham Region Forecast of Employment by Type (2011-2019) (Source: Durham
Growth Management Study: Land Needs Analysis)
The largest share of the existing base and forecast growth is population-related employment
(49% of the total) followed by Employment Land (37%) and major office jobs (13%). Rural
employment is anticipated to remain a small part of the overall City-wide employment base.
Particularly relevant to this study is Employment Land Employment, which is forecast to grow by
a total 81,600 jobs, and will be accommodated largely within the various industrial and business
park designated in the local official plans, including existing areas in the City of Pickering and the
future Seaton lands.
5.2 Market Characteristics and Competitiveness: How Well
Suited is Pickering to Compete for New $?
As described in the 2007 Hemson Economic Development Study and 2015 update report, the
Seaton Lands have their own unique set of Strengths and Weaknesses. On balance, however,
the corridor is extremely well-suited to accommodate job growth and new business investment,
as summarized below.
• The location of the Seaton employment lands is a key advantage— being proximate both
to the new Seaton Community and having direct access to Highway 407 is an advantage
for prospective employers. Improvements to Provincial highway infrastructure (including
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Highway 407 but also 401, 412 and 418) as well as regional (GO) transit will improve
connectivity between Durham Region, the Seaton Community and the rest of the GTHA,
providing a significant advantage.
• As discussed previously, there is a limited supply of developable employment lands in
Pickering (not including the Seaton lands) with the result that the majority of future
employment area job growth will need to occur along the Innovation Corridor and other
abutting employment lands within Seaton. As existing locations elsewhere in the GTHA
build out their available land supplies, Seaton will be drawn closer to the growing
industrial markets to the west.
• The Seaton lands have the ability to provide a range of site sizes and variety of parcels
with an integrated Natural Heritage System appealing to prestige industrial and office-
type uses. The long and narrow configuration, however, presents some challenges from
an infrastructure cost perspective, especially on the south side of Highway 407 and
infrastructure costs will be relatively high because of the configuration of the NHS
features.
• From a regional perspective, one of Seaton’s key advantages will be its ability to provide
sites attractive for campus-style office and integrated multi-purpose facilities within an
attractive natural feature environment at lower costs than Markham. Links with the
well-established innovation cluster provide additional opportunities especially for the
target sectors (MDB) that will occupy employment lands.
• Until recently, many of the key challenges facing the Seaton lands were related to its
relatively isolated location at the end of the 407. This situation has changed now that
Highway 407 has been extended which, when completed, will provide access to a major
400-series throughway and ready easterly access to Highway 401 via Highway 412 on the
west side of Whitby and Highway 418 east of Oshawa. With the first prestige
employment operating (Kubota Canada Limited), the lands are beginning to establish the
market profile and tone for the development of remaining areas over time.
5.3 Land Need: How much Land is Required to
Accommodate Growth?
Across the GTHA, growth in employment land employment is the key driver of demand for
urban lands within the designated Employment Areas: the geographic areas typically planned to
be occupied by, but not necessarily used exclusively for, employment land employment.
Employment Areas tend to be where most industrial-type buildings are located, but also can
accommodate major office, (for example in some of the employment areas in southern York
Region), as well as a limited amount of population-related employment particularly those
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providing services to the designated Employment Areas. Employment land employment is
expected to occur across a wide range of economic sectors and built forms within the
designated Employment Areas.
Most population-related employment tends to be accommodated in existing locations (such as
the existing Community and downtown areas) and through the normal course of secondary
planning for new residential communities. Major office employment occurs under a unique
market dynamic and at extremely high densities, which requires geographic proximity to major
urban growth nodes in order to be accommodated.
5.3.1 Forecast of Growth on Urban Employment Area Lands
In the Regional MCR/ GMS work, the profile of growth in the designated Employment Areas
reflect these expectations, consistent with other GTHA communities. Virtually all of the
Employment Land Employment (98%) is allocated to urban Employment Area lands, along with
approximately 10% of the Region-wide population-related employment and 30% of the major
office employment. Most of the major office employment is expected to occur in the
Community Area, based on the expectation that urban mixed-use areas will become more
attractive for office uses over time and in accordance with Growth Plan policy directions to
direct major offices to such locations.
The result is a total forecast growth on Urban Employment Area lands of approximately 99,500
jobs over the period to 2051, reproduced below in Figure 5-2 for convenience. Initially, the
Regional work identified the need to designate approximately 1,351 gross hectares (3,338 acres)
of Urban Employment Area lands via the new Regional Official Plan to accommodate the
employment growth, under an assumption that 15% of the employment growth would be
accommodated through intensification on existing employment lands. The March 2022 work
completed by the Region has resulted in a revised employment area intensification target of
20%, which results in less new land required to accommodate the growth, in the amount of
1,171 hectares (2,893 acres) it is also important to note that the Regional work indicates that a
Settlement Area Boundary Expansion will be required
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
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by
Employment Land
Use Category
Employment Land
Em lo ment ELE
Population-Related
Em lo ment PRE
Major Office
Em lo ment MOE
Rural
Total Employment
Growth
Region
Wide
81 ,600
108,500
28 ,800
2 ,700
221,600
Employment Growth, 2019-2051
Employment
Areas
80 ,000
10,900
8 ,600
0
99,500
Rural
Based
0
0
0
2 ,700
2,700
Community
Areas
1,600
97 ,600
20 ,200
0
119,400
Source : Watson & Associates Econom ists Ltd ., 2021 .
Share of
Region-Wide
Employment
Growth within
Urban
Employment
Areas
(2019-2051)
98%
10%
30%
0%
45%
83
Figure 5-2: Preliminary Forecast by type and Policy Area (Regional GMS – Employment
Strategy Technical Report, 2021)
5.3.2 Comparison of Supply and Demand
Employment Area land demand is estimated by the application of density factors to the forecast
growth of 99,500 jobs over the period to 2051. The resulting land demand, shown in Figure 5-3,
is compared to the available supply, and conclusions are reached on the need for additional
supply. According to the Regional MCR/ GMS work, after adjusting for employment land
conversions and long-term vacancy (sites not anticipated to develop over the forecast period) a
total of nearly 1,200 gross hectares of additional lands are required to accommodate the 2051
forecast.
Figure 5-3: Summary of Region Wide Employment Area Land Needs to 2051
Employment Area and Needs in 2051 Land Need (in hectares)
Total Employment Land Demand, 2019-2051 2,950 gross hectares
Designated Vacant Employment Land Supply
Adjusted for Recommended Conversions
1,779 gross hectares
Employment Area Deficit (Gross Hectares) 1,171 gross hectares
Source: Watson and Associates Economists Ltd., 2021
It is understood that the estimated additional land needs include all of the currently designated
supply in the City of Pickering, including the Seaton lands, as well as newly designated
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employment lands. Demand is based on:
• an employment density of 27 jobs per gross hectare (in accordance with the Growth Plan
definition) which is higher than current estimated densities (approximately 14 jobs per
net hectare) and generally lower than average employment densities for other uses,
specifically office forms.
• The land need assessment also anticipates that approximately 20% of the growth will be
accommodated through intensification, such as expansions of existing buildings,
additional development on already occupied parcels and other infill.
5.3.3 Role of the City of Pickering and Seaton Lands
As noted, the regional forecast allocations to the local municipalities have yet to be confirmed,
including the City of Pickering. However, based on recent and emerging trends as well as the
Regional GMS estimates of employment growth by employment type and location it is apparent
that Pickering and the Seaton lands will play an important role in accommodating growth. From
a land use planning and economic development perspective, a number of key points warrant
attention:
• Under the current LNA, the entire supply of employment lands in the City of Pickering
are required to accommodate growth, including the Seaton lands.
• The Region is required to conform to the CPDP and, thus, the requirement of 1 job for
every 2 persons must be considered in the context of the LNA.
• Regional employment area land needs are based on an overall density of 32 jobs per net
hectares, which is relatively low compared to other uses such as office, but consistent
with emerging trends for key sectors driving demand for urban employment areas across
the GTHA, especially large-scale warehousing and distribution activities along with some
new manufacturing.
• The general expectation within in the Regional LNA, however, is for the Seaton lands to
develop at much higher-than-average densities – approximately 60 jobs per net hectare
– consistent with the vision for these lands in current planning instruments and their
strong competitive advantages. Again, this is ambitious and may not be reflective of the
current market and economic conditions.
• In a Regional context, the Seaton lands are therefore anticipated to play a major role in
achieving overall growth management objectives, not only in terms of total employment
but also broader goals to improve the balance of jobs to residents in the community,
with a strong focus on office-type uses to achieve planned densities.
• With servicing in place, there is likely to be very strong demand for the Seaton lands
given current market trends, the proximity of the Innovation Corridor to the rapidly
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growing City of Toronto broader GTHA employment base, and strong competitive
advantages of the location within the GTHA market.
5.3.4 Absorption Estimates and Timing of Development
To help inform the regional allocations of employment to the City of Pickering, an estimate of
the potential absorption and time to depletion of the Seaton lands has been prepared. The
estimate is based on the preliminary results of the Region-wide employment strategy prepared
as part of the MCR/ GMS, in particular the total employment land need.
According to the Regional MCR/GMS work, a total of 2,660 net ha of employment lands are
required over the period to 2051. For GMS purposes, “net lands” are the area of the building
and building lot excluding internal infrastructure such as roads and stormwater management.
Based on the current ROP, most of the future growth in employment (approximately 80%) is
expected to be accommodated in the southern urban municipalities of Pickering, Ajax, Oshawa
and Whitby. Although the local allocations have yet to be prepared, it is reasonable to expect
that the urban municipalities will continue to accommodate a large share of growth over the
planning horizon.
Based on the expectation that the urban municipalities accommodate 80% of the employment
land demand, as with employment overall, this would translate into a total of approximately
2,100 net hectares absorbed over the period to 2051. Average annual absorption would
therefore be in the order of 70 net ha per year, which is a significant increase from historic
levels of market demand (absorption) that have averaged 32 net ha per year. Again, this is
based on the Growth Plan forecast for a significant acceleration of growth Region-wide over the
next 30 years.
Based on the Regional MCR/GMS work, the Seaton Lands make up approximately 30% of the
total vacant supply within the Highway 407 corridor, along with lands designated in north
Whitby and north Oshawa. Applying the 30% share of land supply to the estimated annual
absorption rate in the urban municipalities results in an average absorption estimate for the
Seaton lands of approximately 20 net ha (50 net acres) per year. Table 5-1 provides a
summary of the estimated absorption to 2051.
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Table 5-1: Summary of Estimated Absorption to 2051
Variable Demand Analysis
Total Employment Land Demand Need
(as shown in the Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary
Report, March 2022)
2,510 net hectares
Share of Employment Area Land absorption allocated to Urban
Municipalities (as reflected in the current ROP distribution of growth for
2031 horizon)
80%
Estimated Demand (absorption) for Employment Area lands in the in the
Urban Municipalities 2,010 net hectares
Average Annual Absorption (total demand over the 30 years 2021-2051) 67 net hectares
Share of Employment Area Demand Allocated to Seaton (as derived from
distribution of vacant supply within the Highway 407 Corridor in Pickering,
Whitby North and Oshawa North)22
30%
Estimated Seaton Annual Average Absorption (average annual absorption
x share allocated to Seaton) 20 net hectares
Market Demand for Employment Area Lands 20 net hectares (50
net acres)
Table 5-2 provides a summary of the assumed share of the demand for urban municipalities.
Based on the analysis, it is expected that the overall annual average absorption in Seaton will be
20 net hectares (520 net acres). At a rate of 20 net hectares (50 net acres) per year, under the
Regional GMS outlook for urban employment areas, the designated lands in Seaton would be
depleted in approximately 11 years, as summarized in Table 5-2.
22 Based on available vacant land supply, there is a distribution of 254 net hectares in Seaton, 374 net
hectares in Whitby North and 179 hectares in Oshawa North, for a total of 807 hectares. Thus,
Pickering’s share is ~30%
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Table 5-2: Summary of Assumed Demand for Urban Municipalities
Variable Demand Analysis
Total Net Land Supply (as shown in the Regional Employment Land Strategy) 254 net hectares
Constrained Land (as shown in the Regional Employment Land Strategy) 5 net hectares
Net Developable Vacant Land (supply-constrained lands) 249 net hectares
Long-Term Vacancy Adjustment 10%
Net Effective Vacant Supply 224 net hectares
Estimated Absorption in Seaton Annually 20 net hectares
Annual Absorption in Seaton, converted to Acres 50 net acres (20 net
hectares)
Time to depletion (net effective vacant supply/ annual absorption) 11 years
As noted in the prior Hemson studies, absorption for the Seaton lands will likely follow the well-
established pattern for greenfield employment areas, where development begins slowly as
market profile is established, followed a period of more rapid absorption and then a gradual
decline as the area builds out. As well, the amount of absorption in any particular year would of
course be affected by the economic conditions in place and other factors such as servicing and
the rate of delivery of new supply to market.
Consistent with the broader regional outlook for employment, however, the overall amount of
absorption for the Seaton lands is higher under the current Growth Plan forecasts than had
been estimated in previous studies. That is to say, within a Regional context, under the updated
Growth Plan forecasts to 2051, much more rapid growth would translate an accelerated level of
market demand for the Seaton lands were they to maintain the same overall share of growth. In
any event, there is little question that there will be very strong demand for employment area
lands across the GTHA, including Durham region and the City of Pickering.
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Table 5-3 provides a summary of how the updated absorption rates presented above compare
with the prior absorption estimates in the 2007/2015 Hemson Reports.
Table 5-3: Summary Updated Absorption Rates Compared with Prior Absorption Estimates
from 2007/2015 Hemson Reports
Variable Prior Analysis
(Hemson, 2015)
Updated Analysis
(Dillon/ Lorius, 2022)
Total Demand Over Planning Period 1,741 net hectares 2,510 net hectares
Forecast Average Absorption 70 net hectares per year
(2006-2031 horizon)
87 net hectares per year
(2021-2051 horizon)
Share of Total Allocated to Urban
Employment 75% 80%
Urban Employment Area Absorption
(annual) 52 net hectares 67 net hectares
Share allocated to Seaton 30% 30%
Average Absorption in Seaton (annual
absorption x share allocated to Seaton) 16 net hectares 20 net hectares
Seaton Average Absorption, converted to
acres 39 net acres 50 net acres
Net Supply 224 hectares 224 hectares
Time to Depletion 14 years 11 years
Ultimately, since the time of the previous studies, the analysis indicates that the average annual
absorption in Seaton will need to be much higher than originally anticipated (50 net acres/ 20
net hectares whereas 39 net acres/ 16 net hectares was previously estimated). For the current
study purposes, it would be reasonable to anticipate that current trends and the forecast
employment growth Region-wide would translate into full development of the Seaton lands in
11 to 14 years.
However, if the Seaton lands are unable to achieve the very optimistic density expectations set
out in the current planning instruments, there is a risk that the planned distribution of growth
by type (particularly major office) will not materialize as planned and the Region will not achieve
the Schedule 3 Growth Plan forecasts. The key issue for growth in Pickering, therefore,
ultimately rests with the amount of and type of new jobs that are likely to be accommodated
on the Seaton Lands. We turn to this issue in the next section to discuss the land supply profile
in the City to accommodate growth.
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5.4 Land Supply Profile
A summary of the City’s designated employment land supply profile is contained in this Section.
Further details and data tables to supplement this section can be found in Appendix B.
The City has a total of 759.7 hectares (1,877 acres) of locally designated employment lands
within Regional Employment Areas. Within these Regional Employment Areas, there is an
additional 284.5 hectares (703 acres) of lands that are not locally designated for employment,
but have some other land use designation (see Figure 5-4). The 284.5 hectares (703 acres) of
‘other’ designated lands were not included in the analysis. However, recommendations on their
future land use are considered as part of this Study. It is noted that the supply analysis has
already factored in the endorsed employment land conversion requests, as indicated in the
December 2021 Recommendations on Employment Area Conversion Requests report to the
Region.
The designated employment lands are located in three main areas. There is a cluster of
employment lands along the southeastern-most edge of the City, extending south of Highway
401 towards Lake Ontario and a small portion of employment lands located in the south west
end of the City, south of Highway 401. These areas are referred to as Pickering East and
Pickering West. A large portion of employment lands is located in Seaton, and are concentrated
along the north and south sides of Highway 407. Most clusters of designated employment lands
have a mix of occupied and vacant lands.
To calculate this analysis of vacant and occupied employment lands, data originally produced by
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., was obtained from the Region of Durham. Dillon and
Lorius did not conduct a new analysis of vacant, occupied, constrained, or underutilized
employment lands for this Report. At the time the analysis was completed by Watson &
Associates Economists Ltd. for the Region’s study, the employment lands in Seaton were not
occupied. As a result, this Report presents limited data specific to the Seaton Employment
Lands. Figure 5-5 provides visual reference of the location of the City’s employment lands by
development status (vacant, occupied, underutilized, and constrained). Of the 759.7 hectares
(1,877 acres) of land designated for employment use, 339.2 hectares (838 acres) (44.65%) are
vacant, with the remainder being occupied. Of the occupied land, Watson & Associates have
identified 130.4 hectares as underutilized and 22.1 hectares (54 acres) has been identified as
having development constraints. As discussed previously in this Report, designated employment
lands consist of three land use designations in accordance with the City of Pickering’s Official
Plan. The designations include: General Employment, Prestige Employment, and Mixed
Employment. The Prestige Employment designation comprises the largest proportion of
employment designated lands, followed by General Employment and Mixed Employment.
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
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90
Based on the analysis, there are a total of 330.1 hectares (815 acres) of employment land in
Seaton, all of which are designated Prestige Employment. This represents 43.45% of the total
share of designated employment lands across the City of Pickering. Of this total, 293 hectares
(724 acres) (88.76%) are vacant and 23.5 hectares are identified as being underutilized. At the
time that Watson & Associates conducted their report for the Region, none of the lands were
occupied in Seaton. Currently 14.6 hectares (36 acres) are occupied by Kubota Canada limited.
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
Dillon Consulting Limited & Lorius and Associates Final Report-May 2022
LAND USE REVIEW
REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT AREAS
BY OFFICIAL PLAN LAND USE DESIGNATIONS
FIGURE 5-4
Township of Uxbridge
------------------,
0 -C:
0 ...
~ ,
....
0
>,
;t::
0
Lake Ontario
Regional Employment Areas
~ Recommended Employment
~ Area Convers ion
Employment
c=J Genera l
c=J Mixed
-Prestige
Other
c=J Mixed
c=J Community
c=J Po t ential Multi Use
>,
.c
;!::
.c: s:: ....
0
C:
~ ~
NORTH
KM --0 1 2 4
□ □ □ □ -□ -
Key Map
Low Density
Medium Density
Ru ral
Prime Agricu ltura l
Active Recreational
Natural
Seaton Natural Heritage
System
Cont rolled
KM
0 1
DILLON
CONSUL TI NC
Map Prepared by: PFM
Dillon Consulting Limited
Map Checked by: KM
Dillon Consultin g Limited
June 08 , 2022
91
Figure 5-4: Regional Employment Areas by OP Land Use Designation
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
Dillon Consulting Limited & Lorius and Associates Final Report-May 2022
LAND USE REVIEW
REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT AREAS
BY DEVELOPMENT STATUS
FIGURE 5-5
Township of Uxbridge
0 ...
C:
0 ...
~ -0
>,
.t: u
Q
NORTH
KM --0 1 2 4
>,
.0
.t: .c:
~ -0
C:
3: ~
Lake Ontario Key Map
Regional Employment Areas
ded Employment Area Conversion Recommen
Development Status
LJ Occupied Land
LJ Unde r uti li zed Land
LJ vacant Land
D Constrained Land
0
KM
1
/
/
/
I ,
.,
-'\ ~,
) -'
I \
"ri-----... ,1 ---..., __ ., l ... -..,. ... ~
.. ~ •-.. J. ; .. ,
, '~
Lake
Ontario
✓r--.--.. ·;:,-::-==::::::::::::i-~K~M~=======;2 ~ 0 0.5 1
DILLON
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I
----.... ,--.J
Map Prepar~d by; ~FM
Dillon Consultin g Limited
Map Checked by: KM
Dillon Consulting Limited
June OB, 2022
92
Figure 5-5: Regional Employment Areas by Development Status23
23 Data and mapping provided by the Region and reflects work previously completed and may not be up to date (e.g. Kubota is now developed)
City of Pickering – Employment Land Strategy Review
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93
5.4.1 Vacant Employment Lands
Currently, the City has a total of approximately 339.2 hectares (832 acres) of vacant
employment land, with the largest concentration of vacant designated employment lands found
in Seaton. This specific area is referred to as the Seaton Lands. Of the vacant employment lands,
the largest share, 89.86%, are designated as Prestige Employment.
Some vacant parcels, due to smaller sizes, fragmentation, odd configurations, access issues, or
other constraints will likely not be developed. A more detailed description of the City’s
employment land inventory by parcel size is provided in Appendix B.
There are currently 293.0 hectares (724 acres) of vacant employment land in Seaton, all of
which is designated Prestige Employment. The vacant employment land within the Seaton
Lands represents 86.38% of the total supply of vacant land in the City of Pickering for all land
use designations, while it represents 96.13% of all vacant designated Prestige Employment land
in the City.
Similarly, with the vacant land supply across the entire City of Pickering, some vacant parcels
are unlikely to develop as a result of smaller sizes, fragmentation, odd configurations, access
issues, or other constraints. A more detailed description of Seaton’s employment land inventory
by parcel size is provided in Appendix B.
The City has a total of 328 parcels that are designated for employment uses, with almost half
(49.39%) being small in size ranging from 0 to 0.99 hectares in size. Parcels of land over 3
hectares in size are considered larger-sized parcels. In the City, there are currently 76 parcels
over 3 hectares (7 acres), which are located predominantly in Seaton. These larger parcels may
offer a more ideal opportunity for future employment growth and development as the size is
able to accommodate larger, expanding business uses.
In Seaton, there are a total of 79 vacant parcels designated for employment use. Of this total, a
slight majority are small, ranging in size from 0 to 0.99 hectares. In Seaton there are 36 parcels
that are larger than 3 hectares (7 acres) in size. These larger-sized parcels offer greater
opportunities for future development and employment growth due to the size, which can
accommodate a greater range of business uses.
5.4.2 Occupied Employment Lands
268.0 hectares (662 acres) of the City’s employment lands are currently occupied (refer to
Figure 5-2). The majority of the occupied lands fall within the General Employment Designation.
Details on the underutilized and constrained employment lands can be found below in Section
5.4.2.1 and 5.4.2.2, respectively.
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5.4.2.1 Underutilized Employment Lands
In total, 130.4 hectares (322 acres) of employment land have been identified as underutilized.
The parcels are located predominately in Pickering East, with some underutilized parcels in
Seaton and Pickering West. These underutilized parcels account for 17.16% of the total
employment lands in Pickering. The largest portion of underutilized employment lands is
designated General Employment, with 91.4 hectares (225 acres) currently underutilized.
The currently underutilized lands within the City’s employment area land supply provide the
opportunities for employment intensification, in accordance with Regional GMS expectations.
Evidence from the City of Toronto shows that employment areas do have the ability to evolve
and accommodate new economic sectors. And, as noted, some intensification activity has
started to emerge in the City of Pickering with the proposed Amazon ‘last mile’ facility on the
site of the former Pickering Market.
These trends of intensification are expected to continue. However, it is important to understand
that Employment Intensification typically does not lead to substantial overall employment
growth since new jobs added are typically offset by declines in the existing employment base
elsewhere in the community. A good example of such declines is the decommissioning of the
OPG facility over time, which will result in some job loss directly at the site and for other
manufacturing uses associated with the value chain.
In Seaton, a total of 23.5 hectares (58 acres) of underutilized employment lands have been
identified (refer to Figure 5-5). All of this underutilized employment land is designated Prestige
Employment. These underutilized lands account for 3.09% of the total employment lands in
Pickering.
5.4.2.2 Constrained Lands
In total, 22.1 hectares (54 acres) have been identified as constrained. Constrained lands are
found mostly in the General and Prestige Employment designations with a small proportion
located in Pickering East and the majority located in Seaton. There are no constrained lands
identified in Pickering West. Within Seaton, the constrained lands identified are found only in
the Prestige Employment land use designation and are generally located proximate to Brock
Road and the 407 connection.
5.4.3 Employment Yield Analysis
As noted in the Regional GMS, employment intensification is expected to continue over time
especially in well-located and accessible locations such as the City of Pickering. Rapid population
growth in the future residential components of the Seaton area is also likely to support the infill
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and redevelopment of existing employment areas over time, not only for goods-movement
activities, but also the range of professional services that tend to occupy space in employment
areas. Employment intensification is, however, difficult to predict and as noted often does not
lead to overall employment growth because of declines in the existing base.
As a result, the vast majority of future employment growth potential in the city rests with the
Seaton area employment lands. In order to provide further input to the Regional allocation of
employment growth, a sensitivity analysis on employment yields for the Seaton lands Two
development yield scenarios have been prepared to inform the current Regional GMS analysis
and support recommendations contained herein.
• Scenario 1 illustrates the outcomes required to achieve the in-force Official Plan and
CPDP employment targets. In short, an optimistic outlook for major offices in a Region-
wide context and high employment land densities are required to accommodate the
employment growth vision under current land.
• Scenario 2 provides a sensitivity analysis based on a less optimistic major office growth
outlook and average regional employment densities. The result is a substantially lower
employment yield for the Seaton lands, suggesting there may be a need to reconsider
current expectations in the emerging economic context.
Given the area’s unique competitive advantages, prior economic development studies have
suggested that the Seaton lands could potentially attract up to 30% of the future Regional major
office market over the planning horizon. Under the current MCR/GMS work, this would
translate into approximately 8,500 jobs, which would be the entire regional allocation of major
office jobs to the urban employment areas, as shown previously in Figure 5-4. Or in other
words, the Seaton Lands would capture 100% of the future market for major office of this
type, which would be an extreme expectation for the local allocation of growth.
A more reasonable expectation would be for the Seaton Lands to capture a share of the forecast
major office market of this type, varied to provide a range on development yields. As shown in
Table 5-4 below, the development yields are based on a total net vacant land area of 254 ha, in
accordance with the current Regional GMS work.
Table 5-4: Land Areas for Calculation
Land Area Type Area
Total Land Area 330 hectares (815 acres)
Gross Vacant Land Area (environmental lands removed) 293 hectares (724 acres)
Net Vacant Land Area (per Region’s Employment Strategy Report) 254 hectares (627 acres)
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5.4.3.2 Scenario 1 (Base Case) Analysis
The base case analysis illustrates one potential outcome required in terms of employment
density to achieve the current targets for Seaton. It anticipates that the Seaton lands capture
50% of the regional urban employment area major office employment. Very limited population-
related employment is expected, in accordance with current zoning directions. The employment
land density required is calculated from the residual jobs and land areas.
Table 5-5 provides a summary of the Development Yield in Seaton under the Base Case
Scenario.
Table 5-5: Estimated Density Required to Achieve in force Employment Targets24
Base Case Scenario Land Use Elements Development Yield
Major Office Employment (standalone), based on
capturing 50% of total regional employment area market 4,250 jobs
Major Office Density (jobs per net hectare) 200 jobs per net hectare
Major Office Lands Required 21 hectares
Population Related (not major retail, 2% net land) 5 hectares
Population Related Employment 375 jobs
Population Related Density 75 jobs per net hectare
Employment Area Lands (remaining land) 228 hectares (563 acres)
Employment Land Employment 14,175 jobs
Employment Area Density Required to Achieve Target 62 jobs per net hectare
Total Jobs 4,250 + 375+ 14,175= 18,800
Under Scenario 1, in order to achieve the forecast target of 18,800 jobs, the overall density that
would need to be achieved in Seaton is 74 jobs per hectare, including major offices. For the
employment land employment components (mostly modern industrial-type buildings) the
density would need to be 62 jobs per net ha. This density is high relative to many other
competing employment areas in the GTHA and would likely need to include a substantial
component of campus-style integrated industrial, office, or other multi-purpose development,
which are somewhat higher in density than logistics, but still well below the average for
standalone major office developments.
When compared with the regional average forecast density of 32 jobs per hectare and the
historic average observed density in Pickering of 14 jobs per hectare, the overall density to be
24 Subject to revision as new or updated information becomes available
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achieved is quite optimistic within the GTHA context, especially in the eastern GTA.
As noted in the Regional MCR/GMS, generally average density levels on employment lands are
declining as result of surging demand for land-extensive warehousing and logistics facilities but
also in the manufacturing sector, as noted, as result of efforts to increased efficiency and
competitiveness through automation. As such, Scenario 2 below provides a sensitivity analysis
based on less optimistic expectations.
5.4.3.3 Scenario 2 Analysis
The Scenario 2 Sensitivity analysis illustrates the employment yield on the Seaton lands under a
somewhat less optimistic set of expectations for major office growth and employment land
employment density. It anticipates that the Seaton lands accommodate a reduced share of the
total regional office forecast (30% as opposed to 50%). Limited population-related employment
is maintained, in accordance with current zoning directions, and employment land employment
yields are estimated at the average forecast density of 32 jobs per net ha. The results are shown
below in Table 5-6.
Table 5-6: Estimated Development Yields at Lower Employment Density25
Scenario 2 Land Use Elements Development Yield
Major Office Employment (standalone), based on capturing 30%
of total regional employment area market 2,544 jobs
Major Office Density (jobs per net hectare) 200 jobs per net hectare
Major Office Lands Required 13 hectares (32 acres)
Population Related Employment 375 jobs
Population Related Density 75 jobs per net hectare
Population Related (not major retail, 2% net land) 5 hectares (12 acres)
Employment Land Employment 7,561 jobs
Employment Area Lands (remaining land) 236 hectares (583 acres)
Employment Area Density Required to Achieve Target 32 jobs per net hectare
Total Jobs 2,544 + 375+ 7,561= 10,480
Under Scenario 2, the Seaton lands would capture less of the regional major office market
within urban employment areas, resulting in a somewhat greater amount of employment land
employment, but at lower densities. At the Regional average forecast density of 32 jobs per net
25 Subject to revision as new or updated information becomes available
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ha, the resulting employment land yields are approximately 7,500 jobs which is nearly half of
the required amount to achieve the in-force targets. Overall employment yields under Scenario
2 are approximately 10,480 jobs at full development, which is substantially below the current
OP and CPDP targets for 18,800. In order to implement considerations in Scenario 2, an
amendment to the CPDP would be required to reduce the overall job targets to a more realistic
number for the current economic context.
As illustrated by the sensitivity analysis, and noted in the Regional GMS/MCR work, the results
of the LNA and eventual allocation of growth to the local municipalities are quite sensitive to
the overall average employment density assume for employment areas over the period to 2051.
Notwithstanding the strong competitive advantages of the Seaton lands, and the current
development vision, there are limits to what can be achieved through land use planning policy
alone. Planning for a level of employment density that is beyond reasonable market
expectations carries the risk that the planned type of development does not occur and the
Region would not achieve the current Schedule 3 Growth Plan forecasts.
5.4.4 Summary
The results of the analysis carried out in Sections 5.3.3.1 and 5.3.3.2 indicate a number of key
themes that will need to be taken into account in the Regional allocations of growth and City’s
official plan review and strategy work
• From a regional demand perspective, it is clear that the entire supply of existing
employment lands in the City is required to accommodate projected growth, including
both the occupied and vacant land supply.
• Based on the regional demand for Employment Area lands, there would appear to be a
level of market demand that would have the Seaton lands absorbed in a relatively
short period of time, between 10 to 15 years. The extent to which the City participates
in this market relates to the uses currently permitted.
• There is potential for employment intensification on underutilized parcels that is likely
to continue and potentially increase, as evidenced by the growing demand for ‘last mile’
distribution facilities close to existing centres of population or areas forecast to grow
rapidly in population such as the Seaton residential lands. These ‘last mile’ sites are
typically internal, low visibility sites within industrial areas that have good access to
major arterials and highways. They would not typically locate on “high cost/ high rent”
sites that future office format uses would locate on. The City’s current land supply is
nearly built-out, with a very limited supply of high-quality sites to accommodate
modern industrial activity.
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• As a result, the City’s future employment potential – and the extent to which it will
contribute to broader regional growth and policy goals – rests almost entirely with
market prospects for the Seaton lands.
• The outlook for many of the City’s key target sectors, especially advanced manufacturing
and the energy sector, remains quite positive but will likely occur at lower densities than
may have been envisioned previously as the result of automation and AI, both trends
that appear to have been accelerated by the COVID-19 Pandemic.
• It is also important to reiterate that most new modern industrial-type facilities are much
larger and space efficient than their predecessors, including new generation storage and
distribution facilities at very high clear heights and highly advanced sortation and
retrieval systems, supporting a range of other activities across the value chain.
• The potential for a substantially lower employment yield for the Seaton lands based
on current market trends has implications for the broader Regional MCR/ GMS and
suggests a need to potentially reconsider current expectations for the Seaton lands in
the City’s official plan review and economic development strategies. A bifocal lens
should be applied when examining the market context—a flexible policy framework
which would allow the City to capitalize on current demand in emerging markets, while
maintaining opportunities for longer-term office uses.
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6.0 Summary of Land Use Challenges and
Opportunities
Based on the analysis contained herein, there are a number of challenges and opportunities
presented for the City to consider in relation to best positioning the Seaton employment lands
for economic success moving forward. These are summarized, below.
6.1 The original plan for Seaton’s employment lands has not
been reassessed since its’ inception nearly 15 years ago
The vison for the Seaton lands relies on market prospects that would have had a focus on high-
quality and high-employment generating uses, such as office and manufacturing. A number of
market and economic conditions have changed since the time of the original CPDP. The outlook
for major warehousing and logistics opportunities was not considered to be strong. The outlook
was based on Seaton’s location in the wrong end of the GTHA, at a time when the market for
warehousing and distribution was not attractive in the east. Prior studies of the Seaton lands
have made note of these market changes and made recommendations for the consideration of
expanding use permissions in Seaton. In fact, these recommendations are further echoed by the
Region’s consultants as part of the Employment Lands Strategy prepared as part of the current
GMS/ MCR. Notwithstanding, there has been no reconsideration of this or implementation of
these directions and no consideration for reviewing and updating the CPDP, despite the policy
directive to review it every five years. As noted throughout this report, there are opportunities
for the City to consider, such as expanding permissions within the PEG zone to allow
opportunities for new industries including warehousing and distribution and the creative
economy which can act as catalysts for synergies in emerging markets; and, introducing a
target-based policy approach and applying a bifocal lens to emerging market conditions and
longer-term office employment uses. This would ensure the targets of the CPDP can be upheld
through demonstrating catalyst jobs can be achieved to offset a lower employment land density
more consistent with current-day market trends.
6.1.1 The market context has changed, especially through the COVID
pandemic.
All factors align with a compelling value proposition for the Seaton lands. COVID in particular
has accelerated many of the factors driving demand for industrial land especially in the logistics
sector, but also manufacturing. COVID has also likely resulted in some permanent shifts in the
nature of work, especially the office market, toward more hybrid and mixed-use settings, as per
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Growth Plan policies. Overall trends are towards lower employment density, generally, on the
non-office side of things, but not always the case (for example, Amazon). Some new logistics
facilities are at higher densities than ever, so not the same as envisioned in 2007.
Notwithstanding, the expectations for employment densities are extremely optimistic. In order
for Seaton to achieve the job yield and density targets previously (and currently) forecast, there
would need to be a significant capture of the office market which would compete with other
Provincial, Regional and local policy objectives for the distribution, promotion and location of
large concentrations of office uses within Urban Growth Centres and Major Transit Station
Areas, each of which have density targets assigned on the basis of capturing a certain
component of the office market.
6.1.2 The Policy Context Reaffirms the Importance of Maintaining
Economic Competitiveness
The PPS and Growth Plan have both been recently updated. The PPS in 2020; and, the Growth
Plan in 2019 (subsequently amended again in 2020). These policy documents reaffirm interest in
economic competitiveness and the role of employment area lands, including PSEZs and other
initiatives to ensure an appropriate supply is available. The growth forecast contained in the
Growth Plan is significantly higher and has been described as “aspirational”. This brings a
heightened importance to employment land, and in particular the Seaton lands to play a major
role in achieving regional objectives. Moreover, the Province has now provided a mandated
LNA, which directs municipalities to base land needs on appropriate densities to ensure no
shortage of land to accommodate the full range and mix of employment to achieve forecasts of
the Plan. This is confounded by the conflicting direction in an out-dated provincial plan—the
CPDP—which is based on the assumption that the Seaton employment lands will develop with
significant office type uses which have a high job yield. The CPDP, as currently structured, has a
vision for employment that is “single-lens” focused on office type uses whereas the current
market realities require a “bifocal” flexibility and nimbleness to capitalize on the opportunities
of today while maintaining key areas for future office uses. The CPDP requires the Region to
continue to apply targets for Seaton, being 1 job for every 2 residents, and 18,800 jobs on
employment lands as givens in their LNA. In the absence of an amendment to the CPDP, as
noted previously, the Region’s GMS/ MCR process is required to assess land needs on the basis
of the CPDP which could have longer-term consequences to the City and the region, more
broadly whereby the City and Region will need to continue to turn down prospective
employment developers due to the prohibitive framework of the CPDP.
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6.1.3 The Evolving Market and Policy Context Raises Questions about
the Vision for Seaton
The current reality is that there is a very strong growth outlook on a regional basis and a big role
for employment area lands in Pickering. However, the scarce supply of existing employment
lands that would permit the types of uses anticipated based on the market outlook is a
detriment— since Seaton lands being one of the only remaining areas in the City with vacant
employment lands to accommodate new employment uses and they do not permit the types of
uses currently in demand. This calls into question the original vision for Seaton as set out in the
CPDP, as it limits what can be achieved on the ground and would require a significant share of
the regional office market and high densities on the non-office component. This speaks to the
need to work at all levels of government—Provincial, Regional and local—to expedite a review
of the CPDP to re-establish a vision reflective of the market context; and, in the interim to
implement a flexible target-based policy approach that could open up the door for some
opportunities where it can be demonstrated that the overall 1 job for every 2 residents can still
be achieved on the whole.
6.2 Options for Consideration
Based on the findings contained herein, some action should be taken to address the gaps and
revise the vision for Seaton. The difficulty, however, as noted throughout this Report is the
current CPDP requirement that the Region must implement through its GMS/ MCR, with the
challenge being related to the employment expectations. Based on consultation conducted to-
date, there appears to be agreement that the targets and vision of the CPDP are out of date and
overdue for review. There are a number of options the City can consider in order to foster an
environment that is better able to respond to the economic and market conditions and realities
of today. However, each of these options should be considered within the context of a joint/
partnership effort between the Province, Region and the City. These are set out below:
6.2.1 Amend the CPDP
There is no question that a review and update of the CPDP is required. The last amendment to
the CPDP occurred in 2012—nearly 10 years ago. With the policy direction in the CPDP
indicating it should be reviewed in 5-year intervals, this review needs to be expedited. As noted
previously in this report, however, preliminary discussions with the Province indicate that they
would not be in a position to review the CPDP in the near future. This poses a challenge in that
the Region will be required to carry the numbers and targets of the CPDP as part of their current
LNA and MCR/ GMS process. MCRs are required to be completed every 10 years. As such, in the
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absence of an amendment or updated to the CPDP in the immediate future, the next
opportunity for the Region to consider this is a long way out. Ultimately, this does little to assist
the City in seizing current opportunities for economic development. Recognizing this, it is
recommended that the City and Region work together to continue a dialogue with the Province
to emphasize the importance of expediting a review and update of the CPDP. It would also be
beneficial for the Province, Region and City to work together to prepare a draft updated CPDP
foundation study to inform the formal update of the CPDP. It may be advantageous to formally
request this through a motion of Council, or otherwise. In addition to conducting a fulsome
review and update of the market conditions and employment prospects in relation to
establishing new targets and a wider range of uses on the employment side, this would
also require an investigation of the impact of any changes on existing front funding
agreements, Regional and local DCs.
Another potential option put forward by stakeholders is to request the removal of the CPDP in
its entirety, allowing the policies of the Growth Plan, Region’s Official Plan and City’s Official
Plan to dictate growth in Seaton. The Official Plan Amendment 22, coupled with the Seaton
Zoning Bylaw, are a more recent and comprehensive planning framework to facilitate both
residential and employment growth in Seaton. The framework implemented and further refined
the policies outlined in the CPDP. Removing the CPDP entirely was not an option explored or
considered as part of this analysis and, as noted previously, was brought forward to City staff
following engagement with stakeholders. This was also raised as a question of Council at the
May 24th, 2022 meeting. The outcomes of the CPDP foundational study could conclude that
repealing the CPDP, rather than amending it, may be appropriate.
6.2.2 Request a Minister’s Zoning Order for the Seaton Employment
Lands
Ministers Zoning Orders, or MZOs, are a powerful tool granted under Section 47 of the Planning
Act. It allows the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing to make an Order to govern land
uses with areas subject to the Order. The MZO would set specific requirements for new
development and can be used to control land use in any area of the province, regardless of the
underlying Regional or local municipal official plan designation. There is no set specific process
for requesting an MZO, and they are issued by the Minister at their discretion. This could be in
the form of a Council resolution and request in writing. An MZO could be used to expand the
range of permitted uses, zoning requirements and, potentially, targets associated with certain
lands in the Seaton Employment Area. The results of this study do not suggest or recommend
that all of the land in Seaton is appropriate for this wider range of uses. There is still a need and
viability for prestige-type employment uses within the key gateway nodes and other similar
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areas which should be maintained for those uses. However, there are areas which could be
opened up for more flexibility. These areas could be identified as forming part of an MZO area,
with the permitted uses, zoning requirements and other terms of use set out in the MZO.
Requesting an MZO could provide a more immediate-term solution for the City and Region to
respond to urgent needs for the City to consider current opportunities for development. It
would allow Pickering to be competitive in the current market while maintaining land for the
future office market. However, they are highly political and contentious. Moreover, if there is
not Provincial appetite to review and amend the CPDP at this time, it is unclear whether the
Minister would entertain an MZO on this matter at all.
6.2.3 Amend the Official Plan to establish a target-based policy
framework to allow consideration for a wider range of uses
while maintaining the 1 jobs for every 2 persons requirement of
the CPDP
Recognizing the time constraints, it would take for a formal review and update of the CPDP,
which is not entirely in the control of the City, another potential option for the City to explore
would be to amend the City’s Official Plan to introduce policies that could open the door for
considering some opportunities for employment uses that are currently not permitted, where it
can be demonstrated a set of established criteria can be met. Again, the findings of this study do
not suggest that all of the Seaton Employment Lands should be opened up for a wider range of
uses. There is still a necessity to ensure prime gateway nodes and other similar areas in
Innovation Corridor are maintained for only prestige employment uses to allow for future
opportunities when the demand for office uses arises. Outside of these key identified prestige
industrial gateway/ node areas, a target-based framework could be applied. As noted, there are
some examples of other jurisdictions where this has either been implemented or considered in
slightly different contexts.
These are summarized generally, below:
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Example Description Key Policies/ Considerations
Steeles-Redlea Proposal for a comprehensive Introduction of residential uses (where
Regeneration redevelopment of the site with a appropriate) provides an opportunity to
Area phased, mixed-use, development
that includes residential, office
and retail floor space.
Emphasis is on the policies for
urban design and minimum
employment on a site
Urban design guidelines establish
a framework for coordinated high
quality development of the area
to ensure appropriate
development consistent with the
OP, Growth Plan and PPS
Applicants required to undertake
analysis which confirm land use
compatibility can be achieved;
documents peer reviewed at
applicant’s expense
address housing affordability and provide
catalyst developments with the nearby
GO Station
Targets established
• Provision of affordable housing
required
• Provision of non-residential GFA in
first phase of development
• Pedestrian connections required
• New development to provide for
office employment uses
Urban Design Guidelines developed to
provide direction on open space,
pedestrian connections, tower locations
and building design
Oakville Green Criteria proposed to allow for the Performance targets are tied to ensure
Health Oriented redevelopment of the site as a employment uses are maintained/
Mixed Use Node Special Policy Area provided for
Urban design and complete community
objectives set out for permitted uses,
minimum densities, the design of the
district, parking, servicing, height, floor
space index
Policies for sustainability, transportation
and community design are also
established
In the context of the Seaton Employment Lands, such a framework could include the following:
• Identification of areas within Innovation Corridor on a land use schedule where
additional uses may be considered (and identification of areas where these uses would
continue to be prohibited, i.e. within the Prestige Employment Nodes)
o Additional uses to be permitted: warehousing and distribution, logistics, and uses
related to the creative economy
• Identification of objectives to guide the consideration of when those additional uses
could be considered (e.g. the development will emphasize a high quality of design,
provide for an integrated and well-connected development with the surrounding area,
promote sustainable practices)
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• Identification of performance targets (e.g. demonstrate why the development would be
a unique opportunity for the City and the Region, demonstrate how the development
will achieve a minimum number of jobs per hectare on-site and demonstrate through a
market study how additional catalyst jobs can be achieved within the broader area and
that the CPDP targets would not be compromised as a result of the development)
• Implementation of the same through applying a Holding provision on the lands where
these additional uses may be considered, such that development could not occur until
all requirements set out in the Zoning By-law and Official Plan have been met
Similar to the joint-approach identified in Section 6.2.1, this should be completed in partnership
with the Province, Region and City. The City and Region should develop draft OP Policies as the
basis for consideration/ input in to the CPDP update and present these to the Province for
approval in the interim until the CPDP update has been initiated. Development could then occur
by way of a Zoning By-law Amendment Application, and evaluated by the City.
6.3 Recommendations and Conclusion
Based on the options set out in Section 6.2 above, it is recommended that a hybrid of 6.2.1 and
6.2.3 be implemented. In implementing this, it will be critically important for the Province,
Region and City to work together. The City should take the lead and work with the Region to
complete a foundational study to inform the CPDP update; and, prepare the interim Official Plan
Amendment to set in place a flexible policy framework during the transition period while the
CPDP is being updated. Introducing some interim policies through an OPA at the local level, as
provided in 6.2.3 would provide that interim relief while the CPDP is updated to align with other
Provincial plans and policies and to better reflect current market conditions. Ongoing
discussions with both the Province and the Region should continue in order to advance this.
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Appendix A:
Summary of Regional MCR/ GMS
Employment Strategy Documents
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Region-wide Growth Analysis (July 2021)
The Region-wide Growth Analysis (July 2021) provides an analysis of the Region’s long-term
population, housing, and employment growth forecast within the context of provincial and
regional policy, historical trends, and predicted future influences. The report includes the
following key findings related to employment:
• The total population for Durham Region is forecast to grow to approximately 1,300,000
persons by 2051, as per Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan. This represents a population
increase of approximately 634,200 between 2016 and 2051;
• Durham Region’s employment is forecast to reach 460,000 jobs by 2051, which an
increase of approximately 236,400 jobs between 2016 and 2051;
• The population and the employment targets set for Durham Region are forecast to
increase at an annual growth rate of 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively;
• Achieving both the population and employment forecasts will require a significant
increase in housing construction and job growth than currently being achieved in
Durham;
• Approximately 87% of the forecast population growth within Durham Region from 2016
to 2051 is anticipated to be largely from net migration, primarily from intra-provincial
net migration followed by international net migration;
• The net migration anticipated for the Durham Region is expected due in part to the long-
term economic growth prospects of the regional economy and of the surrounding
‘commuter-shed’; and,
• There is an increased importance of net-migration for the Region because the current
population is aging, which negatively impacts labour force participation rates and the
labour force growth overall. To meet the population forecast for Durham Region, the
level of annual net migration will need to be approximately two and a half times higher
than it was between 2001 and 2016.
Employment Strategy (September 2021)
The Employment Strategy (September 2021) provides an assessment of trends in employment
and analyzes the current state of the Region’s Employment Areas. The report includes the
following key findings related to employment land and jobs to 2051:
• To achieve the Region’s employment forecast for 460,000 jobs by 2051, a total of
236,400 new jobs are required between 2016 and 2051. This represents an average
annual growth rate of 2.1%;
• A Region-wide minimum Urban Employment Area density target of 26 jobs per gross
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hectare is recommended;
• 45 privately-initiated conversion requests and several areas identified by the Region
have been reviewed in detail against the evaluation criteria endorsed by Regional
Council in the spring of 2020 and 408 gross hectares (1,008 gross acres) of Employment
Area lands have been identified as appropriate for recommendation for conversion to
non-employment uses; and,
• A shortfall between the total Employment Area available for development and the
Region’s employment forecast for 460,000 jobs by 2051 was determined. As a result, it is
anticipated that a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion will be required to designate
approximately 1,150 gross hectares (2,800 acres) of Urban Employment Area lands via
the new Regional Official Plan.
The recommendations stemming from the Region’s Employment Strategy were grouped into
five broad themes, which include:
• Broad Economic Development Policy Objectives
• Planning for Employment Growth within Major Transit Station Areas, Urban Growth
Centres and Other Strategic Growth Areas
• Planning for Urban Employment Areas within the Context of an Evolving Regional
Economy
• Protecting Urban Employment Areas
• Planning for Rural Employment
The recommendation pertaining to Broad Economic Development Policy Objectives is for the
Region to recognize that the long-term planning for population and employment growth must
align with the Growth Plan population and employment forecasts, as such there needs to be
continued action to support growth and a balanced activity rate beyond the minimum
prescribed by the Growth Plan (section 8.1.1). A more balanced activity rate is recommended to
help the Region meet its ROP objective to support the development of healthy, complete, and
sustainable communities that provide close live-work relationships for residents.
In terms of Planning for Employment Growth within Major Transit Station Areas, Urban Growth
Centres and Other Strategic Growth Areas, the focus of the recommendations from the
Employment Strategy address the most appropriate location for office development and the
promotion of employment growth and mixed-use development in MTSAs. It is recommended
through the Strategy that major office development be directed towards UGCs and MTSAs and
that Major Office be encouraged to locate within other candidate SGAs that have existing or
planned frequent transit service. In addition, office uses should be encouraged within Regional
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Centres and Corridors (section 8.2). Despite the emphasis on office development being directed
towards UGCs and MTSAs, the Strategy includes recommendations for permitting office
developments within Employment Areas in instances when such development cannot be easily
accommodated within UGCs, MTSAs or other SGAs as well as for permitting smaller-scale office
developments and larger integrated industrial developments in designated Employment Areas
(section 8.2).
The Strategy recommends that the Region encourage and support employment growth and
mixed-use development in MTSAs. Specific means to do so include increased efforts towards
improved infrastructure capacity for development, creation of area-specific policies to ensure
that development within MTSAs adjacent to Employment Areas has appropriate design
elements to limit land-use compatibility issues, to further assess development feasibility for
office development in MTSAs, and to monitor development activity within MTSAs (section 8.3).
These actions are recommended to aid in achieving density targets and related land use policy
objectives for the specific areas.
Given the changing demands for employment uses and built forms requiring accommodation in
Employment Areas, the Strategy provides a number of recommendations to address Planning
for Urban Employment Areas within the Context of an Evolving Regional Economy. A prior study
for the Region, the Envision Durham Proposed Policy Directions Report, noted that due to
structural changes in the larger economy, the built forms and type of employment uses being
proposed in Employment Areas in the Region are changing. The predominant uses for these
areas is shifting to light industrial, multi-tenant office, flex office, and multi-purpose facilities
encompassing office, and non-office uses. With the changing built forms, uses, and needs of
workers, the Employment Strategy acknowledges the need to recognize these new employment
requirements while mainlining the availability of Employment Areas for traditional industrial
and Business Park uses (section 8.4).
To accomplish this, a number of recommendations were put forward to balance the changes
required of Employment Areas to support an evolving economy while protecting the integrity of
Employment Areas. The recommendations included:
• Broadening and further defining accessory and supportive uses for Employment Areas
(section 8.4.2) to help create more complete business parks or industrial areas.
• To discourage major retail development in Employment Areas by updating the definition
in the ROP to specifically include “large-scale or large-format retail stores or retail
centres” to ensure that such developments be clearly prohibited or limited in
Employment Areas through other ROP policies (section 8.4.3).
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• For the ROP to be adjusted, so it states that the Region endeavors to achieve
approximately 50% of all forecast employment to be accommodated in designated
Employment Areas (section 8.4.4)
• To plan for a minimum average density target of 26 employees per hectare for all Urban
Employment Areas in the Region, in accordance with section 2.2.5.13 of the Growth Plan
(section 8.4.5)
• To encourage intensification of existing Employment Areas, especially for sites that
support active transportation and are served by existing or planned transit, and to
undertake an Employment Area intensification strategy (section 8.4.6)
In Planning for Urban Employment Areas within the Context of an Evolving Regional Economy,
the recommendations from the Employment Strategy focus on the need to preserve
Employment Areas in the Region as a means to remain competitive over the long term. This
includes expediting the servicing of designated Employment Areas through regional
infrastructure projects to accommodate employment growth and intensification (section 8.5). A
five-year supply of regionally serviced Employment Areas, with emphasis on medium and large
sites, is recommended by the Employment Strategy (section 8.5). In addition to preparing
‘shovel-ready’ sites, it is recommended that the Region work with landowners to identify
strategies to address potential barriers to development (section 8.5). As well, it is suggested
that the Region should seek opportunities to make “quality of life enhancements” within
Employment Areas and to continue to leverage the Region’s distinct economic and competitive
strengths within the context of the broader GGH economy (section 8.5). Other
recommendations for Planning for Urban Employment Areas within the Context of an Evolving
Regional Economy include:
• Expanding the supply of designated employment lands within the Urban System by
1,164 gross hectares (2,876 gross acres) via Settlement Area boundary expansions as
identified through Phase 1 of the Region’s Growth Management Strategy (section 8.5.1).
• Ensuring that the planning and development of future Employment Areas is undertaken
in a sustainable manner through innovative design and development practices (section
8.5.2).
• Expand the Region’s current Urban Employment Area land inventory monitoring system
to better aid longer-term planning and land needs forecasting (section 8.5.3).
The Region’s Employment Strategy highlights the importance of protecting the existing
Employment Areas given the employment uses that these designated areas encompass are
unique and cannot be easily accommodated elsewhere in the Region. There is an identified
need to protect these areas for the long-term. As such, the recommendations for Protecting
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Urban Employment Areas are:
• To ensure employment area conversions are justified and the decision is made through a
systematic approach and methodology, supported by the Growth Plan and ROP policies.
At the time of the Employment Strategy’s publication, a total of 408 ha (1008 acres) of
Urban Employment Area land was recommended for conversion to non-employment use
in the Region (section 8.6).
• The use of transitional policies and Secondary Plans are recommended for several of the
Employment Areas that have been recommended for conversion to a non-employment
use (section 8.6).
• For sensitive land uses (i.e. residential) being developed within an MTSA boundary to
have appropriate design elements to limit land-use compatibility issues with adjacent
Employment Areas (section 8.6).
Recommendations on Employment Area Conversion Requests (December 2021)
On December 7, 2021 the Region released a report on Recommendations on Employment Area
Conversion Requests. This report presents recommendations for the Employment Area
conversion requests there were being considered through Envision Durham, and seeks Council’s
endorsement on the recommended conversions. Looking specifically to the City of Pickering,
this report has identified lands recommended for conversion. Recommendations from the
report regarding the City of Pickering include:
• Regional Council to endorse Employment Area conversion request for “CNR-10”, a 51.9
hectare site located at 1802 and 1902 Bayly Street and 2028 Former Kellino Street
(referred to as “Durham Live Lands”) for conversion.
o The conversion request was made in order to facilitate residential (up to 1,650
units including a portion of affordable housing units) and commercial/retail uses
(up to 32,500 square meters).
o Since submitting a formal Employment Area conversion request, a Minister’s
Zoning Order was issued for these lands granting residential land use permission.
o Regional Planning staff recommend CNR-10 for conversion and to recognize the
land use permissions granted through the Provincial Misters Zoning Order O.Reg
707-20 amended by O.Reg 515-21.
• To further facilitate the proposed residential intensification at this site, and elsewhere in
the City, a new sanitary pumping station and force main connection to the York-Durham
Primary trunk sanitary sewer is identified as a likely requirement. In addition, significant
improvements to the area road network are likely required to support the proposed use,
which will need to be determined through future studies by the proponent.
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Appendix B:
Land Supply Summary Tables
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Table 1 summarizes the total, vacant, occupied and underutilized lands in the City, while Table
5-5 includes a more detailed analysis of the Seaton Employment Lands.26
Table 1: City of Pickering Designated Employment Lands by Status
OP Employment
Designation
Total Area (ha) Vacant Land
(ha)
Underutilized
Land (ha)
Occupied Land
(ha)
Constrained
Land (ha)
General
Employment 299.6 21.0 91.4 184.0 3.1
Prestige
Employment 409.6 304.8 27.4 58.6 18.9
Mixed
Employment 50.5 13.4 11.6 25.4 0.1
Total 759.7 339.2 130.4 268.0 22.1
Table 2 provides a summary of the total, vacant, occupied and underutilized lands within
Seaton, specifically.
Table 2: Seaton Lands Designated Employment Lands by Status
OP Employment
Designation
Total Area (ha) Vacant Land
(ha)
Underutilized
Land (ha)
Occupied Land
(ha)
Constrained
Land (ha)
General
Employment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Prestige
Employment 330.1 293.0 23.5 0.0 13.6
Mixed
Employment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 330.1 293.0 23.5 0.0 13.6
Table 3 provides a summary of the City’s vacant employment land supply based on employment
designation.
Table 3: City of Pickering Vacant Employment Land Supply
OP Employment Designation Total Vacant Land (ha) Percentage of Total Vacant
Employment Land
General Employment 21.0 6.19%
Prestige Employment 304.8 89.86%
Mixed Employment 13.4 3.95%
Total 339.2 100%
26 This Report relies on data prepared by Watson & Associates for the Region’s MCR regarding vacant,
underutilized, and occupied parcels.
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The supply of vacant lands within Seaton is depicted below in Table 4.
Table 4: City of Pickering-Seaton Lands Vacant Employment Land Supply
OP Employment
Designation
Total Vacant Land (ha) Percentage of Total
Vacant Land in Seaton
Percentage of total
vacant land in the
City
General Employment 0.0 0% 0%
Prestige Employment 293.0 100% 96.13%
Mixed Employment 0.0 0% 0%
Total 293.0 100% 86.38%
A summary of the City’s vacant employment lands based on number of parcels and size, is
presented below in Table 5.
Table 5: City of Pickering Vacant Employment Land Supply by Parcel Size
Vacant Parcel Size (ha) Number of Parcels Total Area (ha) Percentage of vacant
parcels in the City
0-0.99 162 78.3 49.39%
1-2.99 90 158.1 27.44%
3-4.99 32 124.9 9.75%
5-9.99 20 140.2 6.1%
10+ 24 542.6 7.32%
Total 328 1,044.2 100%
Table 6 summarizes the composition of parcel sizes within Seaton.
Table 6: Seaton Vacant Employment Land Supply by Parcel Size
Vacant Parcel Size
(ha)
Number of Parcels Total Area (ha) Percentage of
vacant parcels in
Seaton
Percentage of
Vacant parcels
in the City
0-0.99 25 10.4 31.65% 7.62%
1-2.99 18 31.9 22.78% 5.49%
3-4.99 10 41.0 12.65% 3.05%
5-9.99 13 93.0 16.46% 3.96%
10+ 13 194.0 16.46% 3.96%
Total 79 370.2 100% 24.08%
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Table 7 summaries the City’s total occupied land by employment land use designation. The
occupied lands are presented as three sub-categories of underutilized, constrained, and
currently occupied (unlikely to accommodate additional development).
Table 7: City of Pickering Occupied Employment Land Analysis
OP Employment Designation Total Occupied Land (ha) Percentage of Occupied Land
General Employment 184.0 68.66%
Prestige Employment 58.6 21.86%
Mixed Employment 25.4 9.48%
Total 268.0 100%
Table 8 below summarizes the City’s total underutilized employment lands by employment land
use designation.
Table 8: City of Pickering Underutilized Employment Land Analysis
OP Employment Designation Total Underutilized Land (ha) Percentage of Underutilized
Land
General Employment 91.4 31%
Prestige Employment 27.4 7%
Mixed Employment 11.6 23%
Total 130.4 N/A
The underutilized employment lands located within Seaton are summarized in Table 9.
Table 9: Seaton Underutilized Employment Land Analysis
OP Employment
Designation
Total
Underutilized
Land (ha)
Percentage of
Underutilized Land
in Seaton
Percentage City
wide by
Designation
Percentage City
wide all
Employment
Designations
Prestige
Employment 23.5 100% 85.77% 18.02%
Total 23.5 100% 85.77% 18.02%
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Table 10 provides a summary of employment lands considered constrained and unlikely to
accommodate additional development.
Table 10: City of Pickering Constrained Employment Lands Analysis
OP Employment Designation Total Constrained Land (ha) Percentage of Constrained
Land
General Employment 3.1 14.03%
Prestige Employment 18.9 85.52%
Mixed Employment 0.1 0.45%
Total 22.1 100%
Table 11 provides a more detailed summary of the constrained employment lands in Seaton.
Table 11: Seaton Constrained Employment Lands Analysis
OP Employment
Designation
Total Constrained Land
(ha)
Percentage of
Constrained Land in
Seaton
Percentage of
Constrained Land
City wide
Prestige Employment 13.6 100% 72%
Total 13.6 N/A 61.54%
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