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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPLN 20-22Report to Planning & Development Committee Report Number: Report PLN 20-22 Date: April 4, 2022 From: Kyle Bentley, P. Eng. Director, City Development & CBO Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study - Alternative Land Need Scenarios Summary Report - File: A-2100-020 Recommendation: 1. That Council endorse the Staff Comments contained in Section 3 of Report PLN 20-22 as the City’s formal comments on the Envision Durham’s Alternative Land Need Scenarios Summary Report, prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. and Urban Strategies Inc., dated March 2022; and 2. That the appropriate City of Pickering staff be authorized to take the necessary actions as indicated in this report. Executive Summary: On March 11, 2022, the Region of Durham released the “Alternative Land Need Scenarios Summary Report”, (the “Scenarios Report”), dated March 2022, prepared by Watson & Associates and Urban Strategies Inc., and requested comments by April 14, 2022. A copy of the Commissioner of Planning and Economic Development’s Report #2022-INFO-19, and the attached Scenarios Report, are provided as Attachment #1 to this report. The Scenarios Report forms part of the Region’s Growth Management Land Need Assessment exercise. It provides a summary of 5 Community Area Land Need Scenarios and 2 Employment Area Land Need Scenarios. Further, it outlines the resultant analysis and assessment of the scenario modelling outcomes, and implications on urban structure and land need across Durham. Staff’s comments on the Scenarios Report are outlined in Section 3 of this report. Staff is seeking Council’s endorsement of the comments, and that a copy of Council’s resolution and Report PLN 20-22 be forwarded to the Region for consideration. Due to the short comment period (30 days) for this report, staff will also be providing a copy of Report PLN 20-22, and the draft minutes of the Planning & Development Committee meeting of April 4, 2022, to the Region, ahead of Council’s consideration of the matter. Financial Implications: This report has no financial implications for the City. Report PLN 20-22 April 4, 2022 Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study Page 2 Discussion: 1. Background The Region of Durham is undertaking a Growth Management Study (GMS), as part of Envision Durham, the Region’s Municipal Comprehensive Review process. The first phase of the GMS consists of a Land Need Assessment (LNA). The purpose of the LNA is to determine the amount of land required through settlement area boundary expansions, in order to accommodate the future population and job growth to 2051. The second phase of the GMS will identify the location of any expansion areas, and allocate population and employment growth targets for those areas. During the summer and early fall of 2021, the Region’s Growth Management Project Team (GMPT) released the following four Technical Reports, that provided an analysis of the form of growth and resulting land needs in Durham: • The Region-Wide Growth Analysis; • The Housing Intensification Study; • The Employment Strategy; and • The Community Area Urban Land Needs. These four reports were presented for public comment. The City of Pickering provided comments through Correspondence 41-21 (endorsed by Council on September 27, 2021), Report PLN 40-21 (Resolution #716/21), Report PLN 42-21 (Resolution #737/21), and Report PLN 45-21 (Resolution #750/21). Certain area municipalities, including the City of Pickering, as well as the development industry, questioned the proposed housing mix contained in the draft Region Wide Growth Analysis (47.6% high density, 30.6% medium density and 21.8% low density). Concerns were expressed that the housing mix was too heavily weighted towards high density development, and did not adequately represent the market demand for lower density housing in Durham. The Region also received correspondence from individual members of the public, certain organizations, and comments from certain municipalities, agreeing with the proposed housing mix in the draft Region Wide Growth Analysis LNA targets. Opinions were expressed that the Region could be more aggressive to limit settlement area expansions, by giving greater priority to climate change mitigation, the protection of farmland, and maximizing opportunities for intensification. In response to comments received on the four Technical Reports noted above, Regional Planning staff agreed, at the October 5, 2021 Planning and Economic Development Committee meeting, to undertake additional analysis. Staff would run modelling and assess a range of alternative land need scenarios, and examine the implications on the urban structure, and land needs across Durham. Subsequently, the GMPT prepared a series of five Community Area Land Need Scenarios, and two Employment Area Land Need Scenarios, and undertook the required analysis. Report PLN 20-22 April 4, 2022 Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study Page 3 On March 11, 2022, the Region released the Alternative Land Need Scenarios Summary Report, (the “Scenarios Report”), dated March 2022. The Scenarios Report is an attachment to the Regional Commissioner of Planning and Economic Development #2022-INFO-19. The Commissioner’s Report is provided as Attachment #1 to this report. Comments are due April 14, 2022. Once input from this consultation is received and assessed, the Region’s GMPT will provide a Recommended Land Need Scenario to the Planning and Economic Development Committee on May 3, 2022. 2. The Alternative Land Need Scenarios To reflect the current context across the Region, prior to undertaking the scenario modelling and analysis, the GMPT made refinements to the baseline of existing settlement patterns, and supply of urban, greenfield land available for development. The refinements included the following: • Incorporating decisions made by Regional Council, on December 22, 2021, regarding Employment Area conversion requests, which resulted in increased Community Area Land supply; • Revising the base mapping to reflect the ‘updated natural heritage takeout layer’ that would be used in the Designated Greenfield Area (DGA) land need analysis, including the reclassification of select sites based on comments received, which reduced the remaining developable vacant land supply; and • Reassessing the current active development applications and developable land area within Seaton, which would result in a change to the overall DGA land needs. The analysis also took into account the interconnectivity that exists between the following key factors in the Land Needs Assessment: housing unit mix; intensification rate; Built Up Area (BUA) unit mix; DGA density; DGA unit mix; Strategic Growth Area/Major Transit Station Area density targets; and Employment density. Moving or revising one key factor would impact all the other key factors. The GMPT developed a spectrum of five Community Area Land Need Scenarios and two Employment Area Land Need Scenarios, to examine a broader range of options to accommodate the growth forecast for the Region to 2051. The Scenarios are summarized below. 2.1 The Community Area Land Need Scenarios (Community Area Scenarios): The Community Area Scenarios were developed to present a range of development options, from the lowest density housing mix and highest land need, to the highest density housing mix and lowest land need. The key variables that have been adjusted across the scenarios include housing mix, DGA density targets, and intensification targets. Report PLN 20-22 April 4, 2022 Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study Page 4 The five Community Area Scenarios and key outcomes, including the implications on future land needs, are presented in the chart below: Community Area Land Need Scenarios Scenario 1 Emphasis on low-density housing (“Hemson”) Scenario 2 Primarily low- density housing Scenario 3 Shifting the unit mix Scenario 4 Balancing the unit mix Scenario 5 Emphasis on higher densities Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 56% Medium: 23% High: 19% Secondary units: 2% Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 39% Medium: 26% High: 32% Secondary units: 3% Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 34% Medium: 30% High: 33% Secondary units: 3% Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 28% Medium: 28% High: 41% Secondary units: 3% Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 20% Medium: 31% High: 47% Secondary units: 3% Intensification Rate: 35% Intensification Rate: 45% Intensification Rate: 50% Intensification Rate: 50% Intensification Rate: 55% Designated Greenfield Area Density: 50 people and jobs per hectare Designated Greenfield Area Density: 55 people and jobs per hectare Designated Greenfield Area Density: 57 people and jobs per hectare Designated Greenfield Area Density: 60 people and jobs per hectare Designated Greenfield Area Density: 64 people and jobs per hectare New Community Area Land Need: 5,400 hectares (13,344 acres) New Community Area Land Need: 2,600 hectares (6,425 acres) New Community Area Land Need: 1,500 hectares (3,707 acres) New Community Area Land Need: 950 hectares (2,348 acres) New Community Area Land Need: 0 • Scenario 1, is based on background technical work completed by Hemson Consulting for the Province, for A Place to Grow. • Scenario 4 is an updated version of the initial scenario that formed part of the Region-Wide Growth Analysis Technical Report, commented on in late Summer 2021. 2.2 Employment Area Land Need Scenarios (Employment Area Scenarios): The initial Employment Area Land Need Scenario, which was reflected in the Region’s Employment Strategy Technical Report, was updated primarily to reflect the additional Employment Area conversions that were recently endorsed by the Regional Council. This effectively reduced the baseline of available Employment Area lands. Subsequently, two Employment Area Scenarios were developed. Report PLN 20-22 April 4, 2022 Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study Page 5 The two Employment Area Scenarios are summarized and presented in the chart below. Employment Area Land Need Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Vacant Employment Area Density Target: 27 Jobs per gross hectare Vacant Employment Area Density Target: 27 Jobs per gross hectare Employment Intensification Target: 15% Employment Intensification Target: 20% New Employment Area Land Need: 1,350 hectares (3,335 acres) New Employment Area Land Need: 1,170 hectares (2,891 acres) • Scenario 1 is an updated version of the Employment Area Land Need contained in the Employment Strategy Technical Report, commented on in Fall 2021. The Scenarios Report points out that achieving Scenario 2 means that Employment Area Lands would be more efficiently used, and the resultant reduction in land need would have lesser impact on the Region’s agricultural lands and rural systems. A detailed discussion on the five Community Area Scenarios and the two Employment Area Scenarios is contained in the Scenarios Report, and also summarized in Section 5.1 (pages 3 to 5) of the Regional Commissioner’s Report #2022-INFO-19. 2.3 The Scenarios Assessment Framework The following five principles were used by the Region’s GMPT to assess the five Community Area Scenarios: Principle 1: Achieving Targets Does the scenario achieve the minimum targets of the Growth Plan, before advancing additional settlement area boundary expansion? Principle 2: Housing Market Choice Does the scenario respond to market demand and provide for the development of a fulsome range of housing types? Principle 3: Setting up Strategic Growth Areas (SGA) for Success Does the scenario support the ability of SGAs, including Urban Growth Centres, MTSAs, Regional Centres, and Regional Corridors, to achieve their planned function as higher density, mixed-use, and transit supportive urban communities? Report PLN 20-22 April 4, 2022 Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study Page 6 Principle 4: Protecting Agricultural and Rural Systems, preparing for Climate Change and Achieving Sustainable Development To what extent would the scenario negatively impact existing agricultural and rural areas, provide sustainable development patterns, and respond to the Region’s Climate Change Emergency declaration? Principle 5: Competitive Economic and Employment Conditions To what extent does the scenario capitalize on the Region’s economic and sector strengths, to ensure Durham remains economically attractive and competitive over the long term? The Region’s assessment of the Community Area Scenarios against the above principles rendered the following results. Scenarios 1 and 2 ranked the weakest in meeting the principles. Scenario 3 ranked better than Scenarios 1 and 2 in terms of Principle 1 (Achieving the Growth Plan targets), but it failed, similar to Scenario 1, in terms of the rest of the principles. Scenarios 4 and 5 ranked the best for meeting the most principles, with Scenario 5 failing to meet Principle 5 (Housing Market Choice). A detailed discussion on how the five Community Area Scenarios measured up against the principles is contained in Section 3.4 of the Scenarios Report. The Scenarios Report does not contain a Recommended Land Need Scenario. As noted earlier in this report, the Region’s Growth Management Project Team will consider the comments on the Scenarios Report and present a Recommended Land Need Scenario to the Region’s Planning and Economic Development Committee in May 2022. 3. Staff Comments 3.1 Staff is pleased with the fact that Region have incorporated alternative scenarios into the Land Needs Assessment, although very little time has been granted to stakeholders to review and comment on such a fundamental component of the Region’s Growth Management Study. At the onset of the Land Needs Assessment exercise, City staff, through the Municipal Working Group Sessions, asked whether the Region would be considering alternative growth scenarios as part of this exercise. It is disconcerting that the Scenario analysis was not addressed until almost the end of the study, instead of being addressed earlier. 3.2 Although staff supports the five Principles against which the Land Needs Scenarios were measured, there does not appear to be any weighting factor associated with these Principles. Clearly, the principles compete with each other. However, it is staff’s opinion that Durham, given its attractiveness for families coupled with the availability of Whitebelt lands, is uniquely positioned to continue to offer an ample supply of market choice, grade-related, family-friendly housing (including more affordable housing options) to its residents and newcomers. In Durham’s current context, the principle of Housing Market Choice, should not be underplayed but rather accentuated in the selection of a Recommended Land Need Scenario. Report PLN 20-22 April 4, 2022 Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study Page 7 3.3 The Scenarios Report presented two of the five Community Area Scenarios as not meeting the minimum Growth Plan intensification target of 50%. Scenario 1 illustrates the significant amount of additional urban land that would be required based on the housing mix identified by the population forecasts prepared by Hemson Consulting Ltd. However, a Scenario that would have modeled both the Growth Plan targets of 50% for intensification, and the density target of 50 persons and jobs per hectare, would have provided a baseline from which to compare Scenarios 3, 4 and 5. 3.4 The Scenarios are presented showing gradual increases in the density of the housing mix, from lowest to highest, and the corresponding effect of the amount of new community area land need: the lower the density, the greater the need for new urban area land; the higher the density, the lower the need for new urban area land. However, comparison of the different Community Area Lands Need scenarios is difficult, as more than one variable is being changed. For example, Scenarios 2, 4 and 5 increase both the intensification rate, and the DGA density, relative to the previous scenario. This makes it impossible to determine a comparison of the effects of an increase in the rate of intensification, independent of an increase in DGA density. The same would hold true for an attempt to compare the effects of the increase in DGA density, independent of increase in the intensification rate. Similarly, under Scenario 3, there are various statements highlighting the fact that low and medium-density housing forms require a larger amount of land, but the Scenarios Report does not highlight the availability of Whitebelt lands in Durham and the attractiveness of, and qualities associated with, medium and low density housing for families. Staff requests that the selection of the Recommended Land Need Scenario for Whitebelt lands in Durham takes into consideration the availability, attractiveness and qualities associated with medium and low density housing for families. The City commented through the Community Area Urban Land Need Technical Report, questioning the rationale for the DGA density target being higher, at 64 persons and jobs per hectare, than the mandated DGA density of 50%. The comments pointed out that DGAs do not contain the same robust, high order transit systems as the built-up area, to provide the necessary transportation infrastructure and mix of uses needed to support a significant shift to higher density housing forms. Additionally, we indicated that the proposed housing mix of 21% low density, 31% medium density, and 48% high density was basically the reverse of today’s mix. It is noted that the scenario presented in the Community Area Land Need Assessment Technical Paper has been refined, reducing the DGA density from 64 to 60 persons and jobs per hectare (see Scenario 4). Additionally, the total new housing mix has been refined from 21% to 28% low density; from 31% to 28% medium density; from 48% to 41% high density; and 3% secondary units. In spite of these refinements, staff still holds the opinion that DGAs won’t be able to provide the necessary higher order transit transportation infrastructure, and mixed of uses, within the timeframe (to 2051) to support a DGA density of 60 persons and job per hectare or greater. Report PLN 20-22 April 4, 2022 Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study Page 8 3.5 The new Community Area Land Need Assessment Scenarios differentiate between the proposed unit mix for the existing Built Up Area and the DGA. To reflect the lack of higher order transit in the DGA, and to ensure a supply of market housing to provide family accommodation, and contribute to a complete community, staff recommends the Region consider a ‘modified Scenario 3’. It is staff’s opinion that the New Unit Mix in the BUA from Scenario 3, is most appropriate, at 9% low density; 34% medium density; 52% high density; and 6% secondary units. Further, it is staff’s opinion that the DGA density of 57 people and jobs per ha, from Scenario 3, is most appropriate, but that a modified New Unit Mix for the DGA be established at 42% low density, 42% medium density, 15% high density, and 1% secondary units, to reflect the attractiveness and qualities associated with medium and low density housing for families. Staff recommend that Community Area Land Need Scenario 3, as modified, be used in preparing the recommended Land Need Assessment. 3.6 Section 2 of the Scenarios Report discusses the implications of increasing the assumption on the amount of intensification within existing Employment Area, from 15% to 20%. Using the higher rate (Scenario 2) would reduce the amount of land needed for Employment Area through urban area boundary expansion. However, the level of intensification is largely left to the choice of the business owner and is difficult to predict. If the 20% is not realized, the Region may be left with a shortfall of vacant Employment Land. The growing trend of manufacturing industries being exported out of Canada, the demand for major logistics and warehousing facilities with relatively lower employees per square metre, the replacement of manual labour with automation technology, and the lack of incentives to intensify, lead staff to question whether the Employment Intensification Area target of 20% is attainable. Accordingly, staff recommends that the Region select Employment Area Land Need Scenario 1, with the 15% intensification assumption, in establishing the overall Recommended Land Need Scenario. 4. Staff Recommendations: It is recommended that the staff comments in Section 3 of this report be endorsed by Council as the City’s formal comments on the Envision Durham’s Scenarios Report dated March 2022, and that a copy of Report PLN 20-22 and Council’s resolution be forwarded to the Region of Durham for consideration. Report PLN 20-22 April 4, 2022 Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study Page 9 Attachment: 1.Report of the Regional Commissioner of Planning and Economic Development 2022-INFO-19 Prepared By: Original Signed By Déan Jacobs, MCIP, RPP Manager, Policy & Geomatics Approved/Endorsed By: Original Signed By Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP Chief Planner Original Signed By Kyle Bentley, P. Eng. Director, City Development & CBO DJ:ld Recommended for the consideration of Pickering City Council Original Signed By Marisa Carpino, M.A. Chief Administrative Officer Attachment #1 to Report #PLN 20-22 If this information is required in an accessible format, please contact 1-800-372-1102 ext. 2564 The Regional Municipality of Durham Information Report From: Commissioner of Planning and Economic Development Report: #2022-INFO-19 Date: March 11, 2022 Subject: Envision Durham – Growth Management Study – Release of Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary Report, File D12-01 Recommendation: Receive for information Report: 1.Purpose 1.1 The Growth Management Study (GMS) that is currently being undertaken by the Planning Division is an integral component of Envision Durham, the Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR) of the Regional Official Plan (ROP). The first phase of the GMS is the preparation of a Land Needs Assessment (LNA) to quantify the amount of Settlement Area Boundary Expansion that will be required to accommodate the Region’s population and employment growth forecasts to the year 2051. 1.2 The purpose of this report is to advise Council, agencies, service providers, stakeholder groups and members of the public that the modelling and assessment of alternative land need scenarios is now available for review and comment until April 14th. At the May 3, 2022, Planning and Economic Development Committee, staff will recommend a preferred scenario, taking into account the input received. A Council decision on the preferred scenario will enable the second phase of the GMS to commence. Page 2 of 9 2. Background 2.1 During the summer and early fall of 2021, four Technical Reports in support of the Region’s draft LNA were released for public review and comment. These reports were prepared in conformity with the Provincial Land Needs Assessment Methodology. The Growth Plan requires upper tier municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe to use this methodology to assess the quantity of land required to accommodate forecasted growth. 2.2 The Technical Reports were fulsome and included: an overall recommended growth forecast; housing unit mix; intensification analysis; designated greenfield area density analysis; Employment Area density analysis; and the resulting Community Area and Employment Area land need. 2.3 In response to comments received from the development community and other stakeholders on the draft LNA, Regional Planning staff agreed at the October 5, 2021, Planning and Economic Development Committee meeting to assess a range of alternative land need scenarios by applying alternative housing unit mixes, intensification rates, and densities. In particular, a scenario that models the housing unit mix used in the Growth Plan 2051 Forecast Background Study, commonly referred to as the “Hemson scenario”, has been prepared. 3. Previous Reports and Decisions 3.1 Commissioner’s Report #2022-INFO-9 released February 11, 2022 provided an update on the assessment framework and consultation timelines for the alternative land need scenarios. 4. The Consultant’s Initial Community Area Land Need Scenario and Employment Area Land Need Have Been Updated 4.1 Since the release of the Technical Reports, additional work and updates to the underlying analysis have been undertaken to this initial scenario which had a unit mix of 22% low density units; 31% medium density units; and 47% high density units. The updated scenario (identified later in this report as Scenario 4), has been modelled and assessed along with the other of the other alternative scenarios. The key changes between the initial land need scenario and the Updated Scenario 4 are identified below: Page 3 of 9 Initial Land Need Assessment Scenario from Technical Reports Updated Scenario 4: Balancing the Unit Mix Unit Mix: Low density units: 22% Medium density units: 31% High density units: 47% Unit Mix: Low density units: 28% Medium density units: 28% High density units: 41% Secondary units: 3% Intensification Rate: 50% Intensification Rate: 50% Designated Greenfield Area Density Target:64 people and jobs per hectare Designated Greenfield Area Density Target:60 people and jobs per hectare Community Area Land Need: 737 hectares (1,821 acres) Community Area Land Need: 950 hectares (2,348 acres) 4.2 The initial Employment Area Land Need was also updated, primarily to reflect additional Employment Area conversions recently endorsed by Regional Council. This review has resulted in an increase to the Employment Area Land Need reported in the Employment Strategy Technical Report, while other key metrics haver remained the same, as follows: Employment Strategy Technical Report Scenario Updated Employment Scenario Vacant Employment Area Density Target: 27 jobs per hectare Vacant Employment Area Density Target: 27 jobs per hectare Employment Intensification Rate: 20% Employment Intensification Rate: 20% Employment Area Land Need: 1,164 hectares (2,876 acres) Employment Area Land Need: 1,351 hectares (3,338 acres) 5. Release of Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment and Planned Consultation 5.1 The alternative scenario modelling outcomes and assessment is documented in the “Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary Report” (see Attachment #1) which was released on March 10 on the Envision Durham website for public review. A summary of the alternative scenarios is provided below, with additional details including the scenario assessment found in the attached report. For ease of review, the five Community Area Land Need Scenarios are arranged in order from lowest density housing mix and highest land need, to highest density housing mix and lowest land need. It may be noted that Scenarios 1 and 2 do not conform to the Page 4 of 9 Growth Plan because they do not achieve the minimum Intensification Rate of 50% as required under the Growth Plan, but they have been prepared for comparison purposes. A lower intensification rate than 50% would require special approval from the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing if sufficient justification could be provided that the 50% intensification rate cannot be achieved in Durham. Community Area Land Need Scenarios Scenario 1 Emphasis on low-density housing (“Hemson”) Scenario 2 Primarily low- density housing Scenario 3 Shifting the unit mix Scenario 4 Balancing the unit mix Scenario 5 Emphasis on higher densities Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 56% Medium: 23% High: 19% Secondary units: 2% Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 39% Medium: 26% High: 32% Secondary units: 3% Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 34% Medium: 30% High: 33% Secondary units: 3% Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 28% Medium: 28% High: 41% Secondary units: 3% Housing Unit Mix of new units: Low: 20% Medium: 31% High: 47% Secondary units: 3% Intensification Rate: 35% Intensification Rate: 45% Intensification Rate: 50% Intensification Rate: 50% Intensification Rate: 55% Designated Greenfield Area Density: 50 people and jobs per hectare Designated Greenfield Area Density: 55 people and jobs per hectare Designated Greenfield Area Density: 57 people and jobs per hectare Designated Greenfield Area Density: 60 people and jobs per hectare Designated Greenfield Area Density: 64 people and jobs per hectare New Community Area Land Need: 5,400 hectares (13,344 acres) New Community Area Land Need: 2,600 hectares (6,425 acres) New Community Area Land Need: 1,500 hectares (3,707 acres) New Community Area Land Need: 950 hectares (2,348 acres) New Community Area Land Need: 0 Note: Totals may not add due to rounding Page 5 of 9 Employment Area Land Need Scenarios Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Vacant Employment Area Density Target: 27 Jobs per gross hectare Vacant Employment Area Density Target: 27 Jobs per gross hectare Employment Intensification Target: 15% Employment Intensification Target: 20% New Employment Area Land Need: 1,350 hectares (3,335 acres) New Employment Area Land Need: 1,170 hectares (2,891 acres) 5.2 Also on March 10, a feedback survey was posted on the Envision Durham website, to provide opportunities for public feedback on the alternative land need scenarios. Survey responses are being accepted until April 14, 2022. A Virtual Public Information Centre is scheduled for March 24, 2022, at 7pm. Notification of the Public Information Centre will be advertised via local newspapers, emailed to the Envision Durham interested parties list, social media channels, and a public service announcement. 5.3 Barring any unforeseen events, it is expected that a preferred land need scenario for both Community Areas and Employment Areas will be recommended to Planning and Economic Development Committee on May 3, 2022. 5.4 Upon Council’s endorsement of a preferred land need scenario, and the associated quantum of urban land need, the GMS will proceed to evaluate the most suitable locations for Settlement Area Boundary Expansion (i.e. Phase 2 of the process). 6. Relationship to Strategic Plan 6.1 This report aligns with/addresses the strategic goals and priorities in the Durham Region Strategic Plan. See Commissioner’s Report #2022-INFO-9 for additional details. 7. Conclusion 7.1 The release of this report will also be announced by way of: • Public service announcements; • Social media platforms, including Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn; and • Email notifications and report circulation. Page 6 of 9 7.2 A copy of this report will be forwarded to all Envision Durham Interested Parties, Durham’s area municipalities, Indigenous communities, conservation authorities, the Building Industry and Land Development (BILD) – Durham Chapter, Durham Region Homebuilders Association, and the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing. Circulation will also be provided to agencies and service providers that may have an interest in where and how long-term growth in the Region is being planned for (school boards, hospitals, utility providers, etc. as specified in Appendix #1). 8. Attachments Attachment #1: Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary Report, prepared by Urban Strategies and Watson and Associates Respectfully submitted, Original signed by Brian Bridgeman, MCIP, RPP Commissioner of Planning and Economic Development Page 7 of 9 Appendix 1 – to Report #2022-INFO-19 Circulated Agencies and Service Providers • Canada Post • Bell Canada • Rogers Communications • Shaw Cable TV • Compton Communications • Persona Communications • Canadian Pacific Railway • Canadian National Railway • Enbridge Gas Distribution Inc. and Enbridge Pipelines Inc. • Trans-Northern Pipelines Inc. • TransCanada Pipelines Inc. • Hydro One Networks Inc. • Ontario Power Generation Inc. • Durham District School Board • Durham Catholic District School Board • Conseil Scolaire Viamonde • MonAvenir Conseil Scolaire Catholique • Mississaugas of Scugog Island First Nation • Ministry of Transportation • Greater Toronto Airports Authority Page 8 of 9 • Transport Canada • Metrolinx • Trent-Severn Waterway • Kawartha Pine Ridge District School Board • Peterborough Victoria Northumberland and Clarington Catholic District School Board • Durham Region Police Department • Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing • Elexicon • Hydro One Networks Inc. (Brock, Scugog and Uxbridge) • Independent Electricity System Operator • Ontario Tech University • Trent University Durham • Durham College • Durham Workforce Authority • General Motors of Canada • Lakeridge Health • Ajax-Pickering Board of Trade • Brock Board of Trade • Clarington Board of Trade • Newcastle & District Chamber of Commerce • Greater Oshawa Chamber of Commerce • Scugog Chamber of Commerce Page 9 of 9 • Uxbridge Chamber of Commerce • Whitby Chamber of Commerce • Downtown Ajax BIA • Bowmanville BIA • Brooklin BIA • Pickering Village BIA • Port Perry BIA • Uxbridge BIA • Downtown Whitby BIA • Business Advisory Centre Durham • Spark Centre ALTERNATIVE LAND NEED SCENARIOS ASSESSMENT SUMMARY REPORT Part of the Region of Durham Growth Management Study: Land Needs Assessment March 2022 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION AND CONTEXT 4 2. EMPLOYMENT AREA LAND NEED SCENARIOS 6 2.1 Description 6 2.2 Methodology/Analysis 6 2.3 Key Considerations 7 3. COMMUNITY AREA LAND NEED SCENARIOS 8 3.1 A Spectrum of Community Area Land Need Scenarios 9 3.2 Community Area Alternative Land Need Scenario Methodology 10 3.3 Community Area Land Need Scenario Assessment Framework 12 3.4 Community Area Land Need Scenario Outcomes 14 4. RANGE OF LAND NEED 24 5. NEXT STEPS 25 TECHNICAL APPENDIX 26 4 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 1. Introduction and Context Durham Region is undertaking a Growth Management Study (GMS) as part of Envision Durham, the Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR) of the Regional Official Plan (ROP). This is a two-phase study to assess how to accommodate the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe forecast growth to 2051 of 1,300,000 people and 460,000 jobs in the Region of Durham. The first phase of the GMS is the preparation of a Land Needs Assessment (LNA) to quantify the amount of Settlement Area Boundary Expansion that will be required to accommodate future population and employment growth to the year 2051. During the summer and early fall 2021, the GMS Project Team released four Technical Reports (the “Technical Reports”) providing an analysis of the form of growth and resulting land needs in Durham. These four reports were presented for public comment and Planning and Economic Development Committee consideration: 1. The Region-Wide Growth Analysis (released on July 2, 2021) presented region-wide population and employment forecasts, various trends in demographics, unit mix, housing prices, and built form. The Report included a forecast housing unit mix for new units to be built during 2021 to 2051 timeframe of 22% low density units, 31% medium density units, and 47% high density units. 2. The Housing Intensification Study Technical Report (released on September 3, 2021) evaluated the supply and demand for housing within the built-up area, including a detailed assessment of likely opportunities and supply potential for intensification1 and associated population and employment accommodation. The Report recommended a regional intensification target of 50%. 3. The Employment Strategy Technical Report (released on September 24, 2021) provided an assessment of trends in employment and analyzed the current state of the region’s Employment Areas, provided recommendations on Employment Area conversions, recommended an overall Employment Area density target of 26 jobs per hectare by 2051, and identified an additional Employment Area land need of 1,164 hectares. 4. The Community Area Land Needs Technical Report (released on October 1, 2021) evaluated the existing state, current trends, and long-term development potential of designated greenfield areas (i.e. lands within the urban area boundary that are outside of the built-up area). The Report provided a recommended overall designated greenfield areas density target of 64 people and jobs per hectare and an additional Community Area land need of 737 hectares. 1 Intensification is defined as the development of a property, site or area within the Built Up Area at a higher density than currently exists. 5 March 2022 Through the fall 2021, the Envision Durham process sought input and comments on the Technical Reports from stakeholders and the public. Correspondence from BILD, other development interests, certain area municipalities, and others, questioned whether the proposed housing mix contained in the draft Region Wide Growth Analysis was too heavily weighted towards high density forms of development, and did not adequately represent the market demand for low density housing (i.e. single detached dwellings). Other correspondence, including from individual members of the public, certain area municipal comments, and other organizations indicated that the draft LNA targets were either appropriate, or could be more aggressive to limit settlement area expansions by more heavily prioritizing the protection of farmland, mitigating climate change, and maximizing higher density intensification opportunities. In response to comments received, Regional Planning staff agreed at the October 5, 2021 Planning and Economic Development Committee meeting to run modelling and assess a range of alternative land need scenarios. This report provides a summary of the land need scenarios, including 2 Employment Land need scenarios and 5 Community Area land need scenarios, and the resultant analysis and assessment of the scenario modelling outcomes. Before the Scenario modelling and analysis was undertaken, adjustments were made to reflect the current context across the Region to create a refined baseline of existing settlement patterns and supply of urban land available for development (greenfield). Input from stakeholders and consultation has also informed the adjustments. These adjustments are as follows: a. Decisions made by Regional Council on December 22, 2021 regarding Employment Area conversion requests, including some additional sites that were endorsed for conversion, which resulted in increased Community Area Land supply; b. Revised base mapping to reflect updated natural heritage takeout layer in the DGA Community Area land need analysis, and a reclassification of select sites based on comments received which reduced the remaining developable vacant land supply; and c. Reassessment of the current active development applications and developable land area within Seaton. The information contained in this report and the technical appendix are provided in order to allow for meaningful and informed feedback through the ongoing consultation process and engagement survey available at durham. ca/envisiondurham. Once input from this consultation is received, a Recommended Land Needs Scenario will be provided to the Region’s Planning and Economic Development Committee in May 2022. 6 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 2. Employment Area Land Need Scenarios 2.1 Description The Employment Strategy Technical Report identified an Employment Area forecast of 99,500 jobs, where 15% of employment growth is expected to be accommodated through the intensification of existing businesses and sites, with the remaining growth anticipated to occur on vacant employment lands at a density of 27 jobs per gross hectare. In response to feedback on the Durham Region Employment Strategy Technical Report, an alternative Employment Area scenario has been defined and assessed. The alternative employment scenario examines an alternative Employment Area intensification target of 20%, compared to 15% reported in the Durham Region Employment Strategy Technical Report. Employment Area intensification represents opportunities to accommodate job growth on employment lands which are currently developed or underutilized through the expansion of existing businesses, severance of existing parcels with adequate frontage, or the redevelopment of existing uses to more employment-intensive operations. The Durham Region Employment Strategy density target of 27 jobs per gross hectare for the region’s vacant employment lands has been maintained in the alternative employment scenario. This is because recent trends in employment development show a strong market for more land extensive logistics and warehousing uses in Durham, which result in moderate employment densities. The Region has minimal ability to effectively influence higher densities on vacant lands and assuming a higher density beyond what has already been identified in the Employment Strategy is not recommended. 2.2 Methodology/Analysis Based on an updated natural heritage system as well as Employment Area conversions endorsed by Durham Regional Council, the land needs calculation has been revised since the release of the Durham Region Employment Strategy Technical Report. Further to these changes, a potential higher number of forecast jobs occurring through intensification results in a greater utilization of Durham Region’s existing Employment Area land base and infrastructure. Increasing employment densities on existing vacant and underutilized sites within Durham Region encourages the concentration of economic activity and reduces the amount of new land and infrastructure needed to promote job growth. As shown in the graphic on page 7, an increased intensification target of 20% in the alternative Employment scenario results in an overall reduction in vacant Employment Area land needed to accommodate forecast growth to 2051. With a 20% intensification target, the overall land need by 2051 would be reduced to 1,170 gross hectares compared to 1,350 hectares required with a 15% intensification target. Historical building permit activity over the past decade indicates that approximately 20% of gross floor area (G.F.A.) development in Employment Areas has been achieved through expansions. This figure does not account for new building permits on lands which have been severed or redeveloped. Furthermore, there are ample opportunities across Durham Region’s underutilized employment lands to accommodate job growth through intensification. For example, through a review of larger sized underutilized sites with high potential to accommodate intensification, it is estimated that approximately 10,000 jobs could be accommodated on just 25 of the larger underutilized parcels within Employment Areas. These parcels represent approximately one third of the total underutilized land area in Employment Areas across the Region. 7 March 2022 2.3 Key Considerations • Achieving a higher Employment Area intensification target of 20% results in a more efficient use of land and reduced Employment Area land need in Durham Region by 2051. A reduction in new land required to accommodate job growth has a lesser impact on the Region’s agricultural lands and rural systems. • Intensification of existing Employment Lands in proximity to major transit station areas (MTSAs) and other locations served by Regional Transit would complement the Region’s priorities related to transit- oriented development (TOD) and economic competitiveness. • The level of intensification achieved in Durham Region is largely left to the discretion of business owner choice and it is therefore difficult to predict future levels of intensification. • If a higher intensification target of 20% does not materialize, it could potentially result in an insufficient amount of vacant Employment Area land available for development over the horizon of the Official Plan. It is noted, however, that there would be an opportunity to reassess intensification patterns during the next Municipal Comprehensive Review and re-evaluate whether additional employment land will be required through expansion. Figure 2-3-1: Employment Area Land Need Methodology Flow Chart 8 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 3. Community Area Land Need Scenarios Five Community Area Land Need Scenarios have been framed to test a broader range of options for accommodating the 2051 forecast growth across the Region. The five Community Area Land Need Scenarios create a spectrum ranging from lowest density housing mix and highest land need to highest density housing mix and lowest land need. All scenarios accommodate the Growth Plan forecast for Durham Region to 2051. The key variables that have been adjusted across the scenarios include housing mix (regionally and by policy area), designated greenfield area (DGA) density targets, intensification targets, and future land need. The five Community Area Land Need Scenarios are described on page 9 followed by a summary of the analysis and resultant growth patterns and an assessment of each Scenario. Each Scenario has been defined by prioritizing one or more of the key variables noted above as the primary driver, with the other variables being resultant outcomes. For example, prioritizing a unit mix with a high share of low-density housing will result in a lower intensification and DGA density target, while producing a higher DGA Community Area land need. Conversely, prioritizing sustainability objectives including TOD and less need for settlement area boundary expansions will drive a unit mix with a higher share of medium and high-density units and result in a higher intensification target and DGA density target and a lower DGA Community Area land need. The following describes each of the scenarios and key drivers and their position on the Scenario spectrum. Figure 3-1: Trends along the spectrum of scenarios 9 March 2022 3.1 A Spectrum of Community Area Land Need Scenarios 1. Scenario 1: Emphasis on low-densityhousing, not meeting the minimum Growth Plan intensification target This scenario implements the housing unit mix from the Growth Plan background technical report entitled: “Greater Golden Horseshoe: Growth Forecasts to 2051”, prepared by Hemson Consulting, dated August 26, 2020. This scenario incorporates the highest proportion of low-density housing forms, which will result in the highest amount of additional Community Area land and the lowest intensification rate at 35%, well below the Growth Plan minimum. 2. Scenario 2: Primarily low-density housing, with increased share of medium and high-density housing Scenario 2 targets a higher intensification rate than Scenario 1, while maintaining a housing unit mix that is still predominantly oriented towards low- and medium-density housing. The resultant intensification rate is 45%, lower than the Growth Plan minimum. The unit mix paired with the lower intensification rate results in the second highest amount of additional Community Area land. 3. Scenario 3: Shifting the unit mix and adding low density intensification to BUA and SGAs to achieve the minimum Growth Plan intensification target Scenario 3 aims to meet the Growth Plan minimum intensification target of 50%, while maintaining a high share of low- and medium-density housing forms. To accommodate increased levels of low- and medium-density housing forms in the BUA (to achieve the 50%), intensification within urban structure will limit higher density growth with Regional Centres and along Regional Corridors. Achieving this scenario would prove challenging, because a high number of low-density units would be required within the BUA on sites that may otherwise be appropriate and desirable for more intensive forms of development, and through the redevelopment of larger lots in stable neighbourhoods. Furthermore, this Scenario will still result in a considerable amount of additional Community Area land need. 4. Scenario 4: Balancing the unit mix -with an emphasis on high and medium-density housing, while achieving the minimum 50% intensification target Scenario 4 reflects the current pipeline development trend toward high- density housing forms in the BUA, while accommodating a sufficient proportion of low- and medium-density forms in response to public and stakeholder comments. The result is a Scenario that achieves the minimum 50% intensification target, supports the growth of SGAs, and offers a market- based choice of housing options that is adjusted to a more balanced mix of built form in the region over the 30-year horizon. A moderate amount of new Community Area land is anticipated. 5. Scenario 5: Emphasis on higher densitiesand intensification beyond minimum Growth Plan targets Scenario 5 seeks to achieve an intensification rate of 55%, primarily though medium- and high-density housing forms. The forecast unit mix in the DGA is expected to accommodate the greatest share of high-density housing compared to the previous four scenarios. Based on less overall housing growth forecast in the DGA and a dense housing mix, no additional Community Area Land is required. This represents a “no-urban-expansion” scenario. 10 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 3.2 Community Area Alternative Land Need Scenario Methodology The Community Area Alternative Land Need Scenarios test a range of inputs and outcomes/implications for how growth can be accommodated across Durham Region. The draft LNA outcome from the Technical Reports represents a reference point, but each of the Five Scenarios has been defined and analysed distinct from this departure point. The following three key steps were undertaken in preparing the Scenario Analysis: 1. The key drivers from each Scenario were used to frame the analysis. An initial analysis of the Scenario was run against the forecast model and reviewed against the outcomes (housing mix, intensification rate, greenfield density, impact on planned regional structure, and additional land need). If needed, adjustments were made to the Scenario to ensure each was coming as close as possible to conforming with Growth Plan policies and targets while complementing Regional priorities (i.e. MTSAs). 2. In order to achieve the Scenario drivers, in particular an increased proportion of low- and medium-density housing mix, some additional assumptions were made. More specifically, in order to accommodate complete communities in both the BUA and Greenfield areas, an increased amount of low- (single-detached, semi-detached, and duplexes) and medium-density (townhouse) housing units need to be accommodated in both the DGA and BUA policy areas. To achieve this in the BUA, some underutilized lands or soft sites were assumed to be developed as low and medium density rather than high density units, and intensification through lot splitting (larger sized single lots severed into two lots) also was assumed. 3. Secondary units, also referred to as Gentle Intensification in the Housing Intensification Technical Report, have been separated into their own density category for the assessment of the Five Scenarios. This reflects the unique form of intensification, where they are typically located in low-density unit types but are assigned a high-density people per unit assumption. Their low-density context yet high-density residency makes them sufficiently different for the purpose of the analysis. The assumption for the absolute number of secondary units in the region does not vary by scenario, though the proportion of these units does fluctuate due to the varying rates of other unit types. Final outputs for each scenario varies in terms of housing mix by type (region wide and within the BUA and DGA), achievement of the Growth Plan intensification target, assumed DGA density, and the resulting land need to accommodate forecast growth to 2051. Once these outputs were obtained, an assessment was undertaken of each scenario. Figure 3-2-1: Key Variables in the Land Needs Assessment are interrelated 11 March 2022 Figure 3-2-2: Alternative Scenarios development and assessment flow chart 12 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 3.3 Community Area Land Need Scenario Assessment Framework To provide Regional Council, stakeholders and members of the public with additional information and context, each scenario was measured against an assessment framework. The Assessment Framework was developed by considering the key theme areas of Conformity with the Growth Plan, Regional Priorities, Future Forward Planning, and Regional Official Plan and Envision Durham Planning Objectives, all of which inform how growth in Durham should occur over the next 30 years. A review of existing policies and strategies under each theme was conducted, which resulted in the following principles and questions that were uses to measure and compare the scenarios: Principle 1:Achieving Targets 1. Does the scenario achieve the minimum targets of the Growth Plan, before advancing additional settlement area boundary expansion? Principle 2:Housing Market Choice 1. Does the scenario provide for the development of a fulsome range of housing types? 2. How does the scenario respond to market demand? Principle 3:Setting up Strategic Growth Areas for Success 1. Does the scenario support the ability of SGAs, including Urban Growth Centres, MTSAs, Regional Centres, and Regional Corridors, to achieve their planned function as higher density, mixed-use, and transit supportive urban communities? Principle 4:Protecting Agricultural and Rural Systems, preparing for Climate Change and Achieving Sustainable Development 1. To what extent would the scenario negatively impact existing agricultural and rural areas? 2. Does the scenario provide efficient and sustainable development patterns, including transit-oriented development? 3. Does the scenario respond to the Region’s Climate Change Emergency declaration? 13 March 2022 Principle 5:Competitive Economic and EmploymentConditions 1. To what extent does the scenario capitalize on the Region’s economic and sector strengths, including providing for appropriate Employment Area land to ensure Durham remains economically attractive and competitive over the long term? The outcomes/implications from each scenario were then compared and ranked. The rankings, with the exception of Principle 1, were predominantly based on a qualitative assessment, recognizing the overlapping and subjective nature of the principles. Principle 1 is a quantitative assessment based on the 50% Intensification Rate, and minimum MTSA and UGC people and jobs per hectare densities required by the Growth Plan. The Scenario outcomes and assessment summaries are contained in the following section. 14 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 3.4 Community Area Land Need Scenario Outcomes Emphasis on low-density housing,not meeting the minimum Growth Plan intensification target 1. Scenario 1 implements the housing mix established in the Greater Golden Horseshoe: Growth Forecasts to 2051 Technical Report, August 26, 2020 (Growth Plan Technical Report). The housing mix is based on a continuation of historical propensity trends for Durham Region to 2051. This Scenario explores the implications of a low-density focused growth scenario on the regional urban structure. The high proportion (56%) of low density units has implications on all metrics, resulting in an intensification rate of 35%, which is lower than the Growth Plan minimum requirement of 50%. Given the low percentage of high-density units, this Scenario locates virtually all of the forecast high-density housing mix within the Built-up Area to best support the Strategic Growth Areas. The DGA Density meets the Growth Plan target but is lowest of all scenarios. The resultant land need is the greatest of all of the five scenarios. 4,800 29,400 35,500 4,100 ‘0,000 units 110,700 18,220 5,480 460 ‘0,000 units 50 Secondary UnitsOutcomes 35% Low Density Medium Density High Density Intensification Rate New Community AreaLand Need (Hectares) DGA Density (PJH) DGA New Unit Mix Durham Total Unit Mix 2051 (Existing + New) DGA New Units Durham Total Units 2051 (Existing + New) BUA New Unit Mix BUA New Units 40% 6% 7% 48% 82% 14% Durham Total New Unit Mix 18% 4% 1% 40 0 0 8 12 1 10 2 20 3 30 4 ‘0,000 units 297,600 78,600 85,200 5,400 56% 23% 19% 63%19% 2% The intensification rate is 35%. The BUA unit mix is 7% low-density, 40% medium-density, 48% high- density, and 6% secondary units. The BUA unit amounts are 4,800 low-density, 29,400 medium-density, 35,500 high-density, and 4,100 secondary units. The DGA density is 50 people and jobs per hectare. The DGA unit mix is 82% low-density, 14% medium-density, 4% high-density, and 1% secondary units. The DGA unit amounts are 110,700 low-density, 18,220 medium-density, 5,480 high density, and 460 secondary units. The total new unit mix is 56% low-density, 23% medium-density, 19% high-density, and 2% secondary units. The total new community area land need is 5,400 hectares. 15 March 2022 Scenario 1 Assessment 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Achieving Targets Does the scenario achieve the minimum targets of the Growth Plan, before advancing additional settlement area boundary expansion? Housing Market Choice Does the scenario provide for the development of a ful- some range of housing types? How does the scenario respond to market demand? Setting-up SGAs for success Does the scenario support the ability of SGAs, including Urban Growth Centres, MTSAs, Regional Centres, and Regional Corridors, to achieve their planned function as higher density, mixed-use, and transit supportive urban communities? Protecting Agricultural and Rural Systems, preparing for Climate Change and Achieving Sustainable Development To what extent would the scenario negatively impact exist- ing agricultural and rural areas? Does the scenario provide efficient and sustainable devel- opment patterns, including transit-oriented development? Does the scenario respond to the Region’s Climate Change Emergency declaration? Competitive Economic andEmployment Conditions To what extent does the scenario capitalize on the Region’s economic and sector strengths, including providing for appropriate Employment Area land to ensure Durham remains economically attractive and competitive over the long term? • 50% intensification target not met. • Minimum greenfield density of 50 p&j/ ha met but is below the Category 1 density (currently approved). • MTSA and UGC minimum densities difficult to meet • Implementing the Growth Plan Technical Report forecasts results in an increased share of low-density housing types than are reported in the active development pipeline • Assumes future housing unit mix would be a flat line projection of historical patterns (based on 2016). • Limited high-density options in DGA. • Housing forms are generally ground-oriented, leading to lowest intensification densities within the BUA. • Lowest level density development potential within the SGAs, challenging their potential as mixed-use, transit supportive urban communities. • Requires the most new land, consuming existing rural and agricultural land. • Predominance of low-density form makes transit oriented redevelopment difficult and increases car-dependency • Supply of low-density units encourages new families to move to Durham. • Low-density form leads to increasing traffic congestion long-term. • Car-dependent urban form is less physically and economically accessible. • Low-density form, spread over a larger settlement area and related infrastructure is more costly to maintain in the long- term. Key Considerations • Highest proportion of low-density housing forms across all policy areas. • Strategic Growth Areas planned to achieve lowest level of density • Development of urban structure as a compact, transit oriented places least supported. • Highest relative land need of the Five Scenarios. 16 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 2. Primarily low-density housing,with increased share of medium and high-density housing Scenario 2 represents a Region-wide housing mix forecast that continues to prioritize low- and medium- density housing, while achieving a higher intensification rate and providing a wider range of market options in the DGA than Scenario 1. Based on supply opportunities within the BUA, as well as the housing demand by type, Scenario 2 can reasonably achieve an intensification target of 45% between 2022 and 2051. Overall, there are fewer units being allocated into the DGA in Scenario 2, since an increased intensification target results in more units being provided in the BUA than in Scenario 1. These additional units are directed towards the Strategic Growth Areas (SGAs). The DGA is higher (55PJH) given the shift in the unit mix. In total, 2600 ha of new Community Area Land is needed to accommodate the forecast to 2051. Intensification Rate DGA Units 45% 31% 6% 5% 57% 66% 22% 11% 1% 39% 26% 32% 3% 4,900 5,870 30,200 55,000 76,600 660 25,300 13,200 DGA New Unit Mix BUA New Unit Mix BUA New Units Durham Total New Unit Mix 20 0 4 6 8 2 4 6 ‘0,000 units ‘0,000 units Durham Total Units 2051 Durham Total Unit Mix DGA Density (Existing + New) 2051 (Existing + New) (PJH) 55 0 10 20 30 259,000 96,100 113,000 ‘0,000 units New Community AreaLand Need (Hectares) 2,600 Low Density Medium Density High Density Secondary Units 55%21% 24% Outcomes The intensification rate is 45%. The BUA unit mix is 5% low-density, 31% medium-density, 57% high- density, and 6% secondary units. The BUA unit amounts are 4,900 low-density, 30,200 medium-density, 55,000 high-density, and 5,870 secondary units. The DGA density is 55 people and jobs per hectare. The DGA unit mix is 66% low-density, 22% medium-density, 11% high-density, and 1% secondary units. The DGA unit amounts are 76,600 low-density, 25,300 medium-density, 13,200 high density, and 660 secondary units. The total new unit mix is 39% low-density, 26% medium-density, 32% high- density, and 3% secondary units. The total new community area land need is 2,600 hectares. 17 March 2022 Scenario 2 Assessment 1. Achieving Targets Does the scenario achieve the minimum targets of the Growth Plan, before advancing additional settlement area boundary expansion? 2. Housing Market Choice Does the scenario provide for the development of a ful- some range of housing types? How does the scenario respond to market demand? 3. Setting-up SGAs for success Does the scenario support the ability of SGAs, including Urban Growth Centres, MTSAs, Regional Centres, and Regional Corridors, to achieve their planned function as higher density, mixed-use, and transit supportive urban communities? Protecting Agricultural and Rural 4. Systems, preparing for Climate Change and Achieving Sustainable Development To what extent would the scenario negatively impact exist- ing agricultural and rural areas? Does the scenario provide efficient and sustainable devel- opment patterns, including transit-oriented development? Does the scenario respond to the Region’s Climate Change Emergency declaration? Competitive Economic and5. Employment Conditions To what extent does the scenario capitalize on the Region’s economic and sector strengths, including providing for appropriate Employment Area land to ensure Durham remains economically attractive and competitive over the long term? Key Considerations • Shift towards market-based supply and higher density in DGA • 50% intensification target not met. • Minimum greenfield density of 50 p&j/ ha met • MTSA and UGC minimum densities can be met. • The scenario provides a range of housing types and options in the BUA and a range of low- and medium- density housing options in the DGA, though likely provides less density in the DGA than there is demand, based on active development applications. • Densities within Regional Centres are elevated to transit-supportive levels, but densities along Regional Corridors generally do not meet the same threshold. • Requires the second highest amount of new land, consuming existing rural and agricultural land. • Lower density form unlikely to support viable transit options outside of MTSAs and UGCs • Shift to medium density undermines transit supportive densities along Re- gional Corridors. • Supply of low-density units encourages new families to move to Durham. • Shift to higher-density forms in BUA enables Regional Centres to emerge as economic centres. • MTSAs are supported as growth centres, offering mobility choice and competitive advantage to new employment and residential uses • Regional Centres supported for growth although Regional Corridors growth potential is not optimized • High relative new land need compared to Scenarios 3, 4 and 5 18 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 3. Shifting the unit mix and adding low density intensification to BUA and SGAs toachieve the minimum Growth Plan intensification target This scenario meets the Growth Plan minimum intensification rate of 50%, but uses a high proportion of low-and medium-density housing forms in the unit mix. Low- and medium-density housing forms require large amounts of land compared to apartments and condominiums. Meeting the 50% intensification figure with low- and medium-density housing forms required large areas within SGAs, including Regional Centres and Corridors, be planned for ground related housing. In addition, significant amounts of low density intensification within community areas is required, including within existing stable neighbourhoods. A higher DGA density is achieved, resulting in a lower Community Land Area need than the previous scenarios. Intensification Rate BUA New Unit Mix BUA New Units 50% 6% 9% 34%52% 9,300 36,500 55,100 5,870 0 2 4 6 ‘0,000 units Durham Total New Unit Mix DGA New Unit Mix DGA Units 3% 1% 58%26% 15% 60,800 660 27,500 16,300 34% 30% 33% New Community AreaLand Need (Hectares) DGA Density (PJH) 57 247,000 104,900 116,500 1,500 53% 22% 25% 20 0 4 6 8 5 10 15 20 25 ‘0,000 units ‘0,000 units Durham Total Unit Mix 2051 (Existing + New) Durham Total Units 2051 (Existing + New) Low Density High Density Secondary UnitsMedium Density Outcomes The intensification rate is 50%. The BUA unit mix is 6% low-density, 34% medium-density, 52% high- density, and 6% secondary units. The BUA unit amounts are 9,300 low-density, 36,500 medium-density, 55,100 high-density, and 5,870 secondary units. The DGA density is 57 people and jobs per hectare. The DGA unit mix is 58% low-density, 26% medium-density, 15% high-density, and 1% secondary units. The DGA unit amounts are 60,800 low-density, 27,500 medium-density, 16,300 high density, and 660 secondary units. The total new unit mix is 34% low-density, 30% medium-density, 33% high- density, and 3% secondary units. The total new community area land need is 1,500 hectares. 19 March 2022 Scenario 3 Assessment 1. Achieving Targets Does the scenario achieve the minimum targets of the Growth Plan, before advancing additional settlement area boundary expansion? 2. Housing Market Choice Does the scenario provide for the development of a ful- some range of housing types? How does the scenario respond to market demand? 3. Setting-up SGAs for success Does the scenario support the ability of SGAs, including Urban Growth Centres, MTSAs, Regional Centres, and Regional Corridors, to achieve their planned function as higher density, mixed-use, and transit supportive urban communities? Protecting Agricultural and Rural 4. Systems, preparing for Climate Change and Achieving Sustainable Development To what extent would the scenario negatively impact exist- ing agricultural and rural areas? Does the scenario provide efficient and sustainable devel- opment patterns, including transit-oriented development? Does the scenario respond to the Region’s Climate Change Emergency declaration? Competitive Economic and5. Employment Conditions To what extent does the scenario capitalize on the Region’s economic and sector strengths, including providing for appropriate Employment Area land to ensure Durham remains economically attractive and competitive over the long term? Key Considerations • 50% intensification target met. • Minimum greenfield density of 50 p&j/ ha met. • MTSA and UGC minimum densities can be met • The scenario provides a range of housing types and options in both the BUA and DGA. • Higher levels of low and medium density provided in the BUA are accommodated by growth in stable neighbourhoods and lower densities in SGAs. • Highest levels of low-and medium- density housing forms in BUA undermines SGA planned function and transit supportive objectives. • Requires additional land, consuming existing rural and agricultural land. • Focus on low- and medium-density within BUA limits transit supportive development opportunities. Return on public transit investments undermined. • Supply of low-density units encourages new families to move to Durham. • Focus on low-and medium-density forms within BUA limits long-term viability of SGAs due to limited population growth. • Scenario achieves intensification target using a balanced mix of housing forms • Use of low- and medium-density housing forms in BUA and SGAs undermines transit oriented development objectives and regional urban structure by placing a high share of grade-related housing forms in SGAs • Low- and medium-density housing units in Regional Centres unlikely to align with market conditions • Assumes highest level of lot splitting/ intensification within Community Area lands including existing mature and stable neighbourhoods 20 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 4. Balancing the unit mix with an emphasis on high and medium-density housing, whileachieving the minimum 50% intensification target Scenario 4 builds from the approach of the Technical Reports with a preference for high-density housing forms in the BUA, but is adjusted to increase the proportion of low- and medium-density forms in response to public and stakeholder comments. This mix is intended to reflect the rapidly growing population of Durham while preserving its capacity to house new and growing families with a range of housing types and affordable housing options compared to other Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) regions. This Scenario achieves a focus on high-density units in Strategic Growth Areas (SGAs) with additional low- and medium-density housing forms along Regional Corridors. The higher DGA density of 60 PJH is achieved with approximately 50% low-density housing units. This scenario results in a lower Community Area land need than the three previous scenarios. Intensification Rate BUA New Unit Mix BUA New Units 50% 6% 5% 29% 61% 5,100 31,000 64,800 5,870 0 2 4 6 8 ‘0,000 units Durham Total New Unit Mix DGA New Unit Mix DGA Units 3% 1% 51% 27% 21% 53,500 660 28,800 22,600 28% 28% 41% 20 4 6 ‘0,000 units Durham Total Units 2051 Durham Total Unit Mix DGA Density (Existing + New) 2051 (Existing + New) (PJH) 60 234,900 50% 21% 28% New Community Area 100,500 Land Need (Hectares) 133,000 9500 5 10 15 20 25 ‘0,000 units Low Density Medium Density High Density Secondary UnitsOutcomes The intensification rate is 50%. The BUA unit mix is 5% low-density, 29% medium-density, 61% high- density, and 6% secondary units. The BUA unit amounts are 5,100 low-density, 31,000 medium-density, 64,800 high-density, and 5,870 secondary units. The DGA density is 60 people and jobs per hectare. The DGA unit mix is 51% low-density, 27% medium-density, 21% high-density, and 1% secondary units. The DGA unit amounts are 53,500 low-density, 28,800 medium-density, 22,600 high density, and 660 secondary units. The total new unit mix is 28% low-density, 28% medium-density, 41% high- density, and 3% secondary units. The total new community area land need is 950 hectares. 21 March 2022 Scenario 4 Assessment 1. Achieving Targets Does the scenario achieve the minimum targets of the Growth Plan, before advancing additional settlement area boundary expansion? 2. Housing Market Choice Does the scenario provide for the development of a ful- some range of housing types? How does the scenario respond to market demand? 3. Setting-up SGAs for success Does the scenario support the ability of SGAs, including Urban Growth Centres, MTSAs, Regional Centres, and Regional Corridors, to achieve their planned function as higher density, mixed-use, and transit supportive urban communities? Protecting Agricultural and Rural 4. Systems, preparing for Climate Change and Achieving Sustainable Development To what extent would the scenario negatively impact exist- ing agricultural and rural areas? Does the scenario provide efficient and sustainable devel- opment patterns, including transit-oriented development? Does the scenario respond to the Region’s Climate Change Emergency declaration? Competitive Economic and5. Employment Conditions To what extent does the scenario capitalize on the Region’s economic and sector strengths, including providing for appropriate Employment Area land to ensure Durham remains economically attractive and competitive over the long term? Key Considerations • 50% intensification target met. • Minimum greenfield density of 50 p&j/ ha met. • MTSA and UGC minimum densities can be met • Shift to housing form and choice creates balance between low, medium and high density, providing housing choice for a broad and changing demographic. • Focus on higher-density forms supports the growth of the SGAs • Proportion of medium density units in the SGAs does not optimize the growth potential in transit supportive areas • Requires additional land, consuming existing rural and agricultural land. • Preference for compact housing forms supports transit oriented communities. • Compact form can align with efficient building design and travel modes, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. • Supply of low- and medium-density forms in BUA attracts new families. • Supply of high-density units in DGA supports new planned Centres. • Higher-density focus in BUA supports planned urban structure. • Transit oriented development limits future traffic congestion. • Scenario achieves intensification target using a balanced mix of housing forms in the DGA and a higher proportion of high-density housing forms in the BUA • Supports compact, transit oriented communities and regional urban structure • Moderate additional Community Area land required 22 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary and intensification beyond minimum Growth Plan targets Emphasis on higher densities5. Scenario 5 tests the growth pattern required to exceed the minimum intensification target (55%) and require no new Community Land to accommodate the 2051 growth forecast. The Region-wide unit mix is established by meeting these requirements. The Built-up Area (BUA) is forecast to contain the highest amount of high-density housing units, and the DGA housing forecast results in a mix which is more oriented towards high-density units than reported in active development applications. The resultant output is a DGA unit mix which provides the lowest proportion of low-density and greatest proportion of high-density units - a significant shift from past and recent development trends. The DGA density of 64 pjh is the highest overall DGA density by 2051 and results in a no expansion scenario. Intensification Rate BUA New Unit Mix BUA New Units 5% 4% DGA Units 27% 63% 5,200 5,870 32,000 74,300 38% 35% 27% 1% 36,000 660 33,100 25,500 20% 31% 47% 3% 55% Low Density Medium Density High Density Secondary Units New Community AreaLand Need (Hectares) DGA Density (PJH) 64 216,700 106,500 145,700 0 46% 23% 31% DGA New Unit MixDurham Total New Unit Mix 10 0 2 3 4 2 4 6 8 ‘0,000 units ‘0,000 units ‘0,000 units 0 5 10 15 20 25 Durham Total Unit Mix 2051 (Existing + New) Durham Total Units 2051 (Existing + New) Outcomes The intensification rate is 55%. The BUA unit mix is 5% low-density, 27% medium-density, 63% high- density, and 5% secondary units. The BUA unit amounts are 5,200 low-density, 32,000 medium-density, 74,300 high-density, and 5,870 secondary units. The DGA density is 64 people and jobs per hectare. The DGA unit mix is 38% low-density, 35% medium-density, 27% high-density, and 1% secondary units. The DGA unit amounts are 36,000 low-density, 33,100 medium-density, 25,500 high density, and 660 secondary units. The total new unit mix is 20% low-density, 31% medium-density, 47% high-density, and 3% secondary units. No additional Community Area land is required. 23 March 2022 Scenario 5 Assessment 1. Achieving Targets Does the scenario achieve the minimum targets of the Growth Plan, before advancing additional settlement area boundary expansion? 2. Housing Market Choice Does the scenario provide for the development of a ful- some range of housing types? How does the scenario respond to market demand? 3. Setting-up SGAs for success Does the scenario support the ability of SGAs, including Urban Growth Centres, MTSAs, Regional Centres, and Regional Corridors, to achieve their planned function as higher density, mixed-use, and transit supportive urban communities? Protecting Agricultural and Rural 4. Systems, preparing for Climate Change and Achieving Sustainable Development To what extent would the scenario negatively impact exist- ing agricultural and rural areas? Does the scenario provide efficient and sustainable devel- opment patterns, including transit-oriented development? Does the scenario respond to the Region’s Climate Change Emergency declaration? Competitive Economic and5. Employment Conditions To what extent does the scenario capitalize on the Region’s economic and sector strengths, including providing for appropriate Employment Area land to ensure Durham remains economically attractive and competitive over the long term? Key Considerations • 50% intensification target met. • Minimum greenfield density of 50 p&j/ ha exceed. • MTSA and UGC minimum densities can be met • Significant emphasis on high-density forms across the Region results in a DGA that potentially provides an oversupply of apartment units compared to active development applications. • The highest level of intensification and high density units within the BUA are not likely to be absorbed even over the long term • Focus on higher-density forms optimizes the planned growth of the SGAs across the Region. • Requires no new Community Area expansion. • Focus on compact housing forms sup- ports transit oriented communities. • Compact form can align with efficient building design and travel modes, reducing greenhouse gas emissions. • Lack of market supply of low-and medium-density units in DGA limits growth of new families. • Supply of high-density units in DGA supports new planned centres, but may not be absorbed by market demand • Transit oriented development limits future traffic congestion. • Supports and optimizes regional urban structure and compact, transit oriented communities • No additional Community Area land required • Scenario exceeds intensification target as a result of focus on high-density housing forms in BUA • Results in a DGA unit mix which is too oriented towards high-density housing forms and is not representative of DGA market demand. 24 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary 4. Range of Land Need The five scenarios result in a range of Land Need based on unit mix, DGA density and intensification rates. As the intensification target increases and the unit mix shifts more towards high-density dwellings, the total Community Area land need decreases. The range of land need for both Community Areas and Employment Areas is demonstrated in Figure 5-1 below. The Figure below illustrates the Community Area and Employment Land Need for each Scenario. The resulting land need ranges from 1,171 ha (Scenario 5 + Revised Employment Area Intensification Target) to 6,751 ha (Scenario 1 + Employment Strategy Technical Report). At the scale of Land Need of Scenario 1, with either employment scenario, there may not be sufficient land in the whitebelt to accommodate the forecast without putting lands that should be protected under pressure. Figure 4-1: Summary range of total regional new land need combining Community Area and Employment Land Need by Scenario 25 March 2022 5. Next Steps The Region will be launching a public survey to solicit feedback on the Scenario modelling outcomes and assessment. The comment period for this report and the survey will close on April 14th, 2022. The Project Team will review the public feedback received and use this as input along with the Scenario Assessment to prepare a Recommended Land Need Scenario, including both Community Area and Employment Area land needs. A final recommendations package will be presented to the Planning and Economic Development Committee in May 2022. This package will contain recommendations on the Preferred Land Need Scenario, supporting technical figures and tables and other recommendations related to Phase 2 of the Growth Management Study. This presentation will represent the culmination of Phase One of the Envision Durham: Growth Management Study. Following Regional Council’s decision, the Growth Management Study will move into Phase 2 to determine Local Area Allocations and preferred locations for Settlement Area Boundary Expansion(s), which will focus on determining the share and form of growth attributed to the Area Municipalities. Phase 2 will culminate with a Regional Official Plan and demonstration of Growth Plan conformity. The next steps and project schedule is outlined below: • March 10 – scenario modelling outcomes and assessment posted for public review. Response survey opens – visit www.durham. ca/envisiondurham • March 24 – Virtual Public Information Centre scheduled for 7pm. Notification of Public Information Centre will be advertised via local Newspapers, e-mailed to the Envision Durham interested parties list, social media channels and a public service announcement. • April 14 – response survey closes. • May 3 – Present the Preferred Land Need Scenario to Planning and Economic Development Committee. 26 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary Technical Appendix Appendix A: Land Needs Calculation for Each Scenario The following tables provide details on the land needs calculation for each Scenario. For additional details regarding the methodology, please refer to the Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report. Figure A-1: Durham Region DGA Community Area Developable Land Supply Land Area Total DGA Community Area Supply (Net of Growth Plan Take-Outs) (developable ha) A 6,142 Total Employment Area Conversions (Net of Growth Plan Take-Outs) (developable ha) B 308 Total DGA Community Area Supply (Including Employment Area Conversions), developable ha C = A + B 6,450 Vacant Land Contingency (gross ha) (1.5%)1 D = C * 1.5% 97 Total DGA Community Area Supply (Including Employment Area Conversions and Land Contingency factor), developable ha E = C - D 6,353 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 1 Land Contingency factor accounts for Employment Area conversions that may not redevelop during the planning horizon, as w ell as other DGA Community Area w hich may not develop by 2051. 27 March 2022 Figure A-2: Scenario 1 – DGA Community Area Land Need Calculation, 2051 Land Area (ha) People and Jobs People and Jobs Per Developable ha Total Existing DGA 6,353 Developed 1,496 71,950 48 Category 11 2,490 155,630 63 Category 22 2,367 108,900 46 Forecast, 2019 to 2051 10,244 512,320 Total DGA at 2051 11,740 584,270 50 Expansion Requirement 5,387 247,790 46 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 1 Category 1 - Approved (registered but unbuilt or in the process of being built out), Draft Approved and Applications Under Review . The Category 1 density of 63 people and jobs per hectare is upw ardly affected by a density of 83 w ithin the Seaton Community Area. 2 Category 2 - Remaining Vacant DGA Lands: includes all lands outside of Category 1 that could become available for Community Area development. 28 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary Figure A-3: Scenario 2 – DGA Community Area Land Need Calculation, 2051 Land Area (ha) People and Jobs People and Jobs Per Developable ha Total Existing DGA 6,353 Developed 1,496 71,950 48 Category 11 2,490 155,630 63 Category 22 2,367 127,840 54 Forecast, 2019 to 2051 7,471 424,610 Total DGA at 2051 8,967 496,560 55 Expansion Requirement 2,614 141,140 54 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 1 Category 1 - Approved (registered but unbuilt or in the process of being built out), Draft Approved and Applications Under Review . The Category 1 density of 63 people and jobs per hectare is upw ardly affected by a density of 83 w ithin the Seaton Community Area. 2 Category 2 - Remaining Vacant DGA Lands: includes all lands outside of Category 1 that could become available for Community Area development. 29 March 2022 Figure A-4: Scenario 3 – DGA Community Area Land Need Calculation, 2051 Land Area (ha) People and Jobs People and Jobs Per Developable ha Total Existing DGA 6,353 Developed 1,496 71,950 48 Category 11 2,490 155,630 63 Category 22 2,367 136,600 58 Forecast, 2019 to 2051 6,362 379,070 Total DGA at 2051 7,858 451,020 57 Expansion Requirement 1,505 86,840 58 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 1 Category 1 - Approved (registered but unbuilt or in the process of being built out), Draft Approved and Applications Under Review . The Category 1 density of 63 people and jobs per hectare is upw ardly affected by a density of 83 w ithin the Seaton Community Area. 2 Category 2 - Remaining Vacant DGA Lands: includes all lands outside of Category 1 that could become available for Community Area development. 30 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary Figure A-5: Scenario 4 – DGA Community Area Land Need Calculation, 2051 Land Area (ha) People and Jobs People and Jobs Per Developable ha Total Existing DGA 6,353 Developed 1,496 71,950 48 Category 11 2,490 155,630 63 Category 22 2,367 152,820 65 Forecast, 2019 to 2051 5,812 370,100 Total DGA at 2051 7,308 442,050 60 Expansion Requirement 955 61,650 65 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 1 Category 1 - Approved (registered but unbuilt or in the process of being built out), Draft Approved and Applications Under Review . The Category 1 density of 63 people and jobs per hectare is upw ardly affected by a density of 83 w ithin the Seaton Community Area. 2 Category 2 - Remaining Vacant DGA Lands: includes all lands outside of Category 1 that could become available for Community Area development. 31 March 2022 Figure A-6: Scenario 5 – DGA Community Area Land Need Calculation, 2051 Land Area (ha) People and Jobs People and Jobs Per Developable ha Total Existing DGA 6,353 Developed 1,496 71,950 48 Category 11 2,490 155,630 63 Category 22 2,367 177,560 75 Forecast, 2019 to 2051 4,760 325,890 Total DGA at 2051 6,256 397,840 64 Expansion Requirement -97 -7,300 75 Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 1 Category 1 - Approved (registered but unbuilt or in the process of being built out), Draft Approved and Applications Under Review . The Category 1 density of 63 people and jobs per hectare is upw ardly affected by a density of 83 w ithin the Seaton Community Area. 2 Category 2 - Remaining Vacant DGA Lands: includes all lands outside of Category 1 that could become available for Community Area development. 32 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary Appendix B: Land Needs Calculation for Each Scenario A housing propensity analysis by population age and housing structure type is a common approach used to assess future housing demand by structure type. This approach uses current Census data, in this case 2016 Statistics Canada Census data, as a starting point to derive housing propensity rates by structure type to the Durham Region population by age group. From this data, assumptions regarding shifting patterns in propensity are assumed for each growth scenario, to determine housing growth by structure type for each age group. It is important to note that if propensities are flat-lined to derive future housing needs, this would result in an significant amount of low-density. It is not appropriate to flat-line propensity rates because there are a multitude of factors which influence them and their volatility, such as housing affordability and changing housing preferences (e.g. aging of the population which will put upward pressure on high-density units). The 2021 to 2051 housing forecast by age group (age of primary household maintainer) and housing type for all five residential growth scenarios is provided below. Figure B-1: Scenario 1: Growth Plan Background Report – Total Housing Forecast by Propensity and Type, 2021 to 2051 Age Grou p 75+ 56,000 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 Under 25 19% Low Density¹ 35% 30% 35% 52% 66% 73% 65% 44% 12% 31% 28% 17% 17% 69% 16% 17% 6% 10% 18% 40% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 17,500 2,000 41,300 42,500 34,600 25,700 Medium Density² High Density³ Total Housing Growth, 2021-2051 1 Low density represents singles and semi-detached. 2 Medium density includes townhouses (including back -to-back and stacked townhouses) and duplexes. 3 High density includes all apartments. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 33 March 2022 Figure B-2: Scenario 2: Higher Proportion of Low-Density Housing – Not Meeting Intensification Target – Total Housing Forecast by Propensity and Type, 2021 to 2051 Age Grou p 75+ 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 -3% Under 25 -10,000 Low Density¹ Medium Density² High Density³ Total Housing Growth, 2021-2051 1 Low density represents singles and semi-detached. 2 Medium density includes townhouses (including back -to-back and stacked townhouses) and duplexes. 3 High density includes all apartments. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 11% 28% 51% 68% 48% 27% 13% 30% 32% 35% 22% 23% 18% 90% 59% 40% 14% 11% 28% 55% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 56,000 17,500 2,000 41,300 42,500 34,600 25,700 34 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary Figure B-3: Scenario 3: Higher Proportion of Low-Density – Testing Impact of Meeting Intensification Target– Total Housing Forecast by Propensity and Type, 2021 to 2051 Age Grou p 75+ 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 -7% Under 25 -10,000 Low Density¹ Medium Density² High Density³ Total Housing Growth, 2021-2051 1 Low density represents singles and semi-detached. 2 Medium density includes townhouses (including back -to-back and stacked townhouses) and duplexes. 3 High density includes all apartments. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 4% 20% 45% 62% 43% 23% 16% 36% 37% 40% 26% 27% 20% 91% 60% 43% 15% 13% 30% 57% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 56,000 17,500 2,000 41,300 42,500 34,600 25,700 35 March 2022 - Figure B-4: Scenario 4: Modified Mix Meeting Targets – Total Housing Forecast by Propensity and Type, 2021 to 2051 Age Grou p 75+ 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 Under 25 -9% 3% 17% 43% 53% 37% 16% 14% 34% 34% 38% 24% 25% 19% 94% 69% 48% 19% 23% 37% 66% 56,000 17,500 2,000 41,300 42,500 34,600 25,700 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Low Density¹ Medium Density² High Density³ Total Housing Growth, 2021-2051 1 Low density represents singles and semi-detached. 2 Medium density includes townhouses (including back -to-back and stacked townhouses) and duplexes. 3 High density includes all apartments. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 36 Alternative Land Need Scenarios Assessment Summary - Figure B-5: Scenario 5: Exceeding Targets – No Additional Land Need – Focus on Higher-Density – Total Housing Forecast by Propensity and Type, 2021 to 2051 75+ 65-74 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 -13% Under 25 -10,000 Low Density¹ Medium Density² High Density³ Total Housing Growth, 2021-2051 1 Low density represents singles and semi-detached. 2 Medium density includes townhouses (including back-to-back and stacked townhouses) and duplexes. 3 High density includes all apartments. Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2022. 10% 6% 31% 48% 25% 11% 17% 38% 37% 41% 26% 28% 20% 97% 72% 57% 28% 26% 48% 68% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 56,000 17,500 2,000 41,300 42,500 34,600 25,700 Age Grou p 37 March 2022