HomeMy WebLinkAboutPLN 03-13
Report to
Planning & Development Committee
PICKERING Report Number: PLN 03-13
Date: February 4, 2013
From: Thomas Melymuk
Director, City Development
Subject: Commenfs on Proposed Amendment 2 to the .
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006
File: D-1100-041
Recommendation:
1. That Report PLN 03-13 of the Director, City Development respecting Comments to
the Ministry of Infrastructure on Proposed Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan for the
Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, be received;
2. That Pickering Council advise the Ontario Growth Secretariat of the Ministry of
Infrastructure that it does not support the proposed employment forecasts for
Durham Region for 2036 and 2041 as set out in Proposed Amendment 2 to the
Growth Plan, as the forecasts: ,
(a) do not reflect the recent historical rate of job growth that Durham Region has
experienced over the last 10 years (33.4%);
(b) do not adequately recognize planned infrastructure in Durham Region such
as the Highway 407 East extension, and other economic drivers such as
Seaton and the University of Ontario Institute of Technology;
(c) do not address the observations of the technical report on growth forecasts
prepared for the Province, noting that existing Growth Plan policy increases
the current very low shares of employment allocated to Durham Region; and
(d) do not improve the low employment to population ratio of 1 job to 2.7 persons
of the Growth Plan, 2006, to a higher ratio, whereas the Region of Durham
and the City of Pickering support a ratio of 1 job to 2 persons;
3. That staff of the Ontario Growth Secretariat revise Amendment 2 by increasing the
2041 employment forecast for Durham Region, from 430,000 jobs to 466,000 jobs,
as proposed in the Regional Council's adoption of the comments contained in
Report 20137P-2, and provide the revised Amendment to the Minister of
Infrastructure for approval; and
4. Further, that Report PLN 03-13 and Council's Resolution on the matter be
forwarded to the Ontario Growth Secretariat at the Ministry of Infrastructure, to
Members of Provincial Parliament representing Durham Region constituencies,
the Region of Durham and its area municipalities.
Report PLN 03-13 February 4, 2013
Subject: Comments on Proposed Amendment 2 to the
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 Page 2
Executive Summary: The Provincial Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe I
was put in place in 2006, providing designations and policies respecting the location
and amount of growth to the year 2031. Single tier, upper tier and lower tier
municipalities must bring their official plans into conformity with the Growth Plan, 2006.
The Growth Plan was prepared under the provisions of the Places to Grow Act, 2005.
The Act requires a review of the population and employment forecasts every five years.
The mandatory review was recently completed. Proposed Amendment 2 to the Growth
Plan was released for comment in November 2012.
Amendment 2 proposes the following:
• to extend the time frame of the Growth Plan to 2041
• to provide growth forecasts for population and employment for the extended time
frame, for 2036 and 2041
• to maintain the growth forecasts for 2031 as currently set out in the Growth Plan
• to require growth plan conformity amendments that are currently in process (such
as Durham Region's) or those that are not yet commenced (such as Pickering's) to
conform to the 2031 forecasts; and
• to permit the next round of Growth Plan conformity amendments to be completed
with future official plan reviews, rather than in a prescribed time frame
Staff have reviewed the proposed amendments, and support the population forecast for
Durham Region as it matches the recent rate of growth for Durham. Staff also support
the retention of the 2031 forecasts so that the policy regime remains stable for the
current set of conformity amendments. Staff does not support the proposed employment forecast for Durham Region as it fails
to recognize Durham's current growth trends, imminent infrastructure investment and
economic drivers in the Region, the re-enforcing policy effect of the current Growth Plan
to allocate less employment to Durham, and Durham's and Pickering's target to achieve
a job to population ratio of 1 job to 2 persons.
As suggested in the attached copy of the Region of Durham Commissioner of Planning
and Economic Development Report 2013-P-2, City staff also support a revision to
Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan to increase the Durham employment forecast for 2041
by an additional 36,900 jobs, for a total of 466,900 jobs, to be consistent with recent
historical trends.
It is recommended that Pickering Council endorse the comments contained in this
Report and forward a copy to the Ministry of Infrastructure, to Members of Provincial
Parliament representing Durham Region constituencies, the Region of Durham and its
area municipalities.
i
Report PLN 03-13 February 4, 2013
Subject: Comments on Proposed Amendment 2 to the
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 Page 3
Financial Implications: Providing comments to the Ontario Growth Secretariat on
Proposed Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan has no financial implications for Pickering.
1. Background:
1.1 The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006, requires periodic
review.
The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GP), known as Places to
Grow, was approved in 2006. The GP establishes a planning framework, and
population and employment growth forecasts for single tier and regional
municipalities to the year 2031. The GP requires municipalities to bring their
official plans into conformity with the policies and forecasts of the GP within a
specified time frame. Further, under the provisions of the Places to Grow Act,
2005, there is a mandatory review of the growth forecasts every five years, and a
mandatory review of the entire GP every 10 years.
1.2 Proposed Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan responds to the requirement to
review the growth forecasts.
The Minister of Infrastructure released Proposed Amendment 2 to the Growth
Plan on November 2, 2012 and requested that comments on Proposed
Amendment 2 be provided by February 8, 2013. (Amendment 1 to the GP
concerns lands and growth in Simcoe County - the Barrie area).
Amendment 2 updates the growth forecasts, and extends the horizon of the
forecasts and policies for single tier and regional municipalities in the Greater
Golden Horseshoe to 2036 and 2041. Proposed Amendment 2 makes no
changes to the 2031 forecasts. The proposed forecasts for the Region of
Durham for 2036 and 2041 are identified in the Table below, with the 2031
forecasts for reference.
Population and Employment Forecasts for the Region of Durham
From
Proposed Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan, 2006
Population Employment
in 000's in 000's
2031 2036 2041 2031 2036 2041
Region of Durham 960 1080 1190 350 390 430
Report PLN 03-13 February 4, 2013
Subject: Comments on Proposed Amendment 2 to the
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 Page 4
As background to the Amendment, the Ministry of Infrastructure commissioned
Hemson Consulting Ltd. to prepare updated growth forecasts for 2036 and 2041.
The results are contained in the "Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts
To 2041 - Technical Report, November 2012" (the Hemson Report). The
Hemson Report used updated Census Canada data for 2006 and 2011, and
based its forecasts on historical patterns, planning policy, and environmental and
infrastructure capacity calculations. The Hemson Report produced three growth
forecasts: a Low; a"Reference" (or moderate); and a High. The Proposed
Amendment reflects the "Reference" forecast.
Amendment 2 also includes proposed transitional policies to help guide
implementation. The proposed transitional policies require that all official plans
governed by the GP be brought into conformity with the 2031 forecasts including:
1. Upper-tier municipal official plan amendments currently awaiting Ontario
Municipal Board decisions (such as Regional Official Plan Amendment
128 (ROPA 128)); and,
2. Lower-tier official plan amendments required for conformity with the GP,
2006 and their respective upper-tier official plan conformity amendments
(ROPA 128), including amendments not yet commenced (such as
Pickering).
At a time in the future, selected by the municipalities, a second round of
comprehensive official plan reviews of both the Region and the City's official
plans will be required to bring them into conformity with the forecasts in the
amended GP.
2.0 Discussion
2.1 In reviewing the Proposed Amendment, staff also considered the
comments of the Region of Durham Commissioner's Report 2013-P-2
The Region of Durham Commissioner of Planning and Economic Development
presented Report No. 2013-P-2, entitled "Growth Plan - Proposed Amendment
2, Population & Employment Forecasts" to the Regional Planning & Development I
Committee on January 8, 2013. A copy of the Report is provided as Attachment
#1. The Committee endorsed the Report and Regional Council approved the
recommendation of Committee on January 23, 2013. The Region's Report
reviewed the methodology, assumptions and findings of the Hemson Report and
the population and employment forecasts of Proposed Amendment 2 for 2031,
2036 and 2041, and provided comments on other various aspects of the
proposed Amendment. '
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- Report PLN 03-13 February 4, 2013
~
Subject: Comments on Proposed Amendment 2 to the
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 Page 5
2.2 The proposed population for Durham Region for 2041 is supported.
Report 2013-P-2 supported the population growth forecast for the period 2031 to
2041 because it reflects the recent historical population growth rate between
1996 and 2006 of 24% in Durham Region. Similarly, City staff support, and
recommend that Council support, the population forecast. ;
2.3 The maintenance of the 2031 growth forecasts, coupled with the proposed
transition provisions are supported.
The 2031 growth forecasts are proposed to be retained despite the findings of
the Hemson Report that generated slightly higher population and employment
forecasts for Durham Region for 2031. However, given the number of official
plan amendments underway, and in many cases awaiting decisions on the
Ontario Municipal Board (OMB), this is an appropriate policy approach.
The proposed transition provisions provide further clarity on when and how
"conformity" with the GP is to be achieved, following approval of the extended
time frame and new growth forecasts. By clarifying that all official plans must first
come into conformity with the 2031 forecasts as set out in the GP, 2006, a stable
planning policy context is established for completing upper tier amendments, or
initiating and completing lower tier conformity amendments.
Furthermore, a second transitional provision allows the next round of GP
conformity amendments to be undertaken with a future comprehensive official
plan review, rather than within a prescribed time limit. This also leads to stability
in the policy framework to allow existing conformity amendments to be completed
and implementation of those amendments get under way.
Staff support, and recommend that Council support, maintaining the 2031 growth
forecasts, and the transition provisions proposed in Amendment 2 to the GP.
2.4 The proposed employment forecast for 2041 for Durham Region is not
supported for both technical and strategic policy reasons.
In Regional Report 2013-P-2, a lengthy comment was made respecting the
shortcomings of the proposed employment forecast for Durham Region for both
2036 and 2041. Some of the key points include the following:
• the proposed forecasts keep the Region's jobs to population rate slightly
worse than from the Growth Plan, 2006, which was 1 job to 2.7 persons
• the proposed forecast does not assist in achieving the cornerstone of the '
Growth Plan of "minimizing the negative impacts of growth and urban sprawl" ,
that a target of 1 job for every 2 persons would achieve I,
• it is noted that the proposed forecasts for all other Greater Toronto Area '
upper tier and single tier municipalities are forecast to have a job to
population rate of 1 job to 2 persons, with the exception of Hamilton, which is
just slightly less
Report PLN 03-13 February 4, 2013
Subject: Comments on Proposed Amendment 2 to the
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 Page 6
• the Province should consider increasing Durham's share of employment .
growth from 22.9% to 33.4% to be consistent with recent historical trend for
the period from 1996 to 2006
• reflecting the recent historical trends would result in an employment forecast
of 466,900 jobs at 2041, and achieve a jobs to population ratio of I job for - ,
every 2.5 persons, moving closer to the Region of Durham target of 1 job for
every 2 persons
• the "relatively low employment forecast will maintain the low employment
to population ratio currently experienced in Durham" (City staff note that the
Hemson Report confirms that the influence of Growth Plan policy increases
the current very low shares of employment allocated to Durham and
Hamilton)
• the low forecast "will limit the designation of new land to accommodate
employment and as a result, prevent the Region from protecting strategic
lands for future employment use"
• the Region questions if the methodology adequately took into account the
near term development potential for Durham and its economic opportunities
that will be created by the advanced construction of Highway 407 East; and
that,
•"improving employment opportunities in Durham continues to be a key driver
to building more complete communities, characterized by balanced population
and job growth, reduced long commuting distances/times, and more transit-
oriented development"
The proposed employment forecasts neither reflect recent historical growth ~trends nor planned economic drivers. Further, the population and employment
forecast do not move the Region towards its target of achieving 1 job for 2
persons. The Growth Plan policy itself results in less employment allocation to '
Durham Region, which results in a downward spiral of less employment land to
designate, less infrastructure investment, and fewer jobs, putting Durham Region
at a competitive and economic disadvantage.
City staff supports, and recommends that Pickering Council support, the Region's
suggestion that the Province increase fhe employment forecasts for Durham
Region. It is recommended that the forecast for 2041 be increased, from
430,000 jobs to at least 466,900 jobs, and adjust the 2036 forecast accordingly.
3.0 Next Steps
3.1 City staff will forward a copy of this Report and Planning Committee's
recommendation to the Ontario Growth Secretariat by February 8, 2013.
Given the deadline for comments, staff will forward minutes from Planning
Committee together with a copy of this Report in time for the Province's deadline.
We will advise the Ontario Growth Secretariat the Council's resolution will follow
at the end of February.
,
Report PLN 03-13 February 4, 2013
Subject: Comments on Proposed Amendment 2 to the
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006 . Page 7
Attachment:
1. Report No. 2013-P-2 Growth Plan - Proposed Amendment 2, Population and
Employment Farecasts of the Region of Durham Commissioner of Planning and
Development
Prepared By: Approved/Endorsed By:
. Steve Gaunt, MCIP, RF~P Catherine Rose, MCIP, PP,
Principal Planner, Policy (Acting) Chief Planner
~
Tho as Mel m CIP, P
Director, City Development
SG:jf Recommended for the consideration
of Pickering Ci Council -
It4t - z ~ zo /
Tony Prevedel, P.Eng.
Chief Administrative Officer
ATTUHIVIE1T# I-.TO
REPORT# . &n/ 0 3 ~
The Regional Municipality of Durham
To: The Planning & Economic Development Committee
From: Commissioner of Planning and Economic Development
Report No.: 2013-P-2
~ Date: January 8, 2013
SUBJECT:
Grawth Plan - Proposed Amendment 2, Population and Employment Forecasts,
File: D01-02-02
RECOMMENDATIONS:
a) THAT Regional Council endorse Commissioner's Report No. 2013-P-2 as
Durham Region's response to the Environmental Bill of Rights, Environmental
Registry posting (EBR Posting: 011-7468) for the "Proposed Amendment 2
(2012) to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2006"; and
b) Thaf a copy of Commissioner's Report No. 2013-P-2 be forwarded to the Ministry
of Infrastructure and the area municipalities.
REPORT:
1. PURPOSE
1.1 On November 2, 2012 the Ministry of Infrastructure released the "Proposed
Amendment 2(2012) to the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe,
2006" (proposed amendment), dealing with population and employment
forecasts, for public comment.
1.2 Commissioner's Report No. 2012-P-70, dated November 27, 2012, provided
Planning and Economic Development Committee with an overview of the
proposed amendment, as well as a copy of the proposed amendment.
1.3 The purpose of this report is to provide the Region's comments to the Ontario
Growth Secretariat on the proposed amendment, to meet the February 8,
2013 deadline.
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Report No.: 2013-P-2 Page No. 2
2. PROPOSED AMENDMENT
2.1 The proposed amendment to the Growth Pian has been prepared under the
Places to Grow Act, 2006, and provides an extended population and
. employment forecast horizon to be used for planning and managing growth in
the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
Schedule 3
2.2 Schedule 3 to the Growth Plan includes population and employment forecasts _
for upper- and single-tier municipalities within the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
A new Schedule 3 is proposed to replace the existing Schedule 3, extending
the forecast horizon from 2031 to 2041.
2.3 The forecast methodology and assumptions upon which the Proposed
Amendment are based, are detailed in a background report entitled "Greater
Golden Horseshoe Growfh Forecasts to 2041: Technical ReporY" (Technical
Report).
2.4 The methodology and assumptions are consistent with those used by the
Province to prepare forecasts for the Greater Golden Horseshoe in 2005, and
were developed with input from municipal stakeholders within the Greater
Golden Horseshoe.
2.5 The population forecasts were developed using various demograpfiic factors,
including natural increase (based on birth and death assumptions), net
migration (based on immigration assumptions), age structure, household "
headship rates and household occupancy patterns. Assumptions for land
availability, infrastructure investment, and water and wastewater seniicing
capacity were also addressed.
2.6 The emplayment forecasts were developed based on various econamic
factors, including economic trends, immigration trends, participation rates,
unemployment rates, net in-commuting patterns, and historical sector
analysis by type of employment.
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Report No.: 2013-P-2 Page No. 3
2.7 The Technical Report includes updated 2031 forecasts for Durham of
970,000 population and 357,000 employment. This represents an additional
10,000 people and 7,000 jobs over the 2031 forecasts in the existing
Schedule 3. However, the amendment proposes to maintain the same
forecasts for 2031 as in the existing Schedule 3(i.e. 960,000 population and
350,000 employment in Durham). This is intended to ensure continuity of
work already undertaken by municipalities to bring their official plans into
conformity with the Growth Plan, particularly as it pertains to decisions on
official plans and official plan amendments currently before the Ontario
Municipal Board.
2.8 The proposed new population and employment forecasts for Durham are:
1,080,000 and 390,000 respectively in 2036; and 1,190,000 and 430,000
respectively in 2041. This represents an employment to population ratio of
36.1 or 1 job for every 2.8 persons in both 2036 and 2041, which provides
no improvement over the 2031 ratio of 36.5% or 1 job for every. 2.7 persons.'
2.9 The percentage population growth for the forecast period 2031-2041 is
24.0%. This is identical to the recent historical percentage population growth
of 24.0% between1996-2006.
2.10 The percentage employment growth for the forecast period 2031-2041 is
22.9%.This is significantly befow the recent historical percentage employment
growth of 33.4°/a between 1996-2006
Comment
The proposal to maintain the same forecasts for 2039 as in the existing
Schedule 3, is supported as it will avoid potential complications in fhe on-
going Growth Plan OMB Hearings.
The population and employment fonecast methodology and assumptions are
reasonable. The extended population forecasf for Durham, which is
consistent wifh recent historical trends is supported. However, fhere is
concem fhat the outlook has a relatively low employment forecast, which will
maintain the low employment to population ratio currently experienced in 11
' ATT10El99ENT# ~ TO
~~ORT# PLiI/ 03 -/3 REVISED
Report No.: 2013-P-2 Page No. 4
Durham. The comersfone of the Growth Plan is stated as "minimizing the
negative impacts of growth and urban sprawl" : To this end, achieving a target of 9 job for every 2 persons has been a key objective of Durham's Official
Plan. lmproving employment opportunities in Durham continues to be a key
driver to building more complete communifies, characterized by balanced
population and job growfh, reduced long commuting distances/fimes, and
more transit-oriented development. We question if the province's
methodology adequately took into account the near term development potential for Durham that will be created by the advanced construction of
Highway 407. Although the forecast does not prevent Durham Region from
generating and accommodating jobs in excess of the forecast, it will limif the
designation of new land to accommodate employment and as a result prevenf
the Region from protecfing strafegic lands for future employment use. The
province should consider increasing Durham's share of employment growth to
be consistenf with recent historical trends (33.4%)
n M
7_4
. .
The
i,... ...1.... .n.. . , ...,.,5. . _ province shou/d also consider changes to the\Growfh Plan to allow for the
long term protecfion of strategic lands for employment use beyond the
forecast perrod.
Imalementation
2.11 The proposed amendment includes a number of proposed actions that may
be taken to implement the amendment. •
2.12 The first pertains to transition provisions. Under section 19 of the Places to
Grow Act, 2005, a regulation was made in June 2006 to address transitional
matters. The Ministry is proposing to amend this regulation "to permit most
decisions on matters in process, as well as some future matters, to be made
as if any amendment had not come into effecY". These matters could include
decisions currently before the Ontario Municipal Board, such as upper-tier
official plan amendments being made to bring official plans into conformity
with the Growth Plan.
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Report No.: 2013-P-2 Page No. 5
Comment
The proposal to amend the existing fransition regulation to ensure that the
amendment does not affect matters a/ready in process is supported. This will
help avoid potenfial complications in the on-going Growth Plan conformity
OMB Hearings in other jurisdictions as well as the pending conformity
exercises being undertaken by Durham's area municipalities.
However, once the Official Plan has been broughf into conformity, the
subsequent review of Official Plans si►ould be based on the updated
forecasfs.
2.13 The second pertains to the timeframe for municipalities to bring their official
plans into conformity with the new forecasts. Under section 12 of the Places
to Grow Act, 2005, the Official Plan must be brought into conformity with the
Growth Plan within three years of the Growth Plan coming into effect. Under
section 12 (3) the Minister can revise this time frame. The proposed
amendment proposes to set an altemate date for conformity to permit municipalities to coordinate their Growth Plan conformity work with the next
scheduled review of their official plans.
Comment '
The proposal to set an alfemate date for conformity with the Growth Plan is
supported, as if will allow the Region to proceed on future timelines for
updating the Regional Official Plan as it deems appropriate, in co-ordinafion
with other confo►mity requirements.
2.14 It should be noted that until any'amendment is approved, the population and
employment forecasts currently contained in Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan (to 2031), continue to be in effect under the Places to Grow Act, 2005.
3. CONCLUSION
3.1 The proposed amendment documentation indicates that the Ministry of
Infrastructure will consider all submissions and coGnments received by •
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Report No.: 2013-P-2 Page No. 6
February 8, 2013, and may subsequentiy modify the proposed amendment,
and submit an amendment with recommendations to the Lieutenant Governor
in Council for a decision. If approved, the amendment would come into effect
on the date set out in the decision.
3.2 it is recommended that this report be submitted to the Ministry of
Infrastructure as the Region's comments on the proposed amendment.
3.3 Planning and Economic Development Committee will be kept informed of the
Ministry's decisions related to the proposed amendment, as necessary.
A.L. Georgieff, MCIP, RPP
Commissioner-of Planning and Economic Development
RECOMMENDED FOR PRESENTATION TO COMMITTEE
Garry H. Cubitt, M.S.W. '
Chief Administrative Officer
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