HomeMy WebLinkAboutECD 03-26
Report to
Council
Report Number: ECD 03-26
Date: May 25, 2026
From: Fiaz Jadoon
Director, Economic Development & Strategic Projects
Subject:
Pickering Federal Lands - Land Use Review and Economic Analysis Recommendation Report
File: A-1440-001
Recommendation:
1. That the City of Pickering Federal Lands - Land Use Review and Economic Analysis
Recommendation Report, prepared by SGL Planning and Design Inc., be received;
2. That Council endorse the City of Pickering Federal Lands - Land Use Review and
Economic Analysis Recommendation Report, set out in Attachment 1, as City of Pickering
comments on the future use of the Pickering Federal Lands;
3. That Council authorize staff to submit Council endorsed comments, as set out in
Attachment 1, to the Federal Government in response to their public consultation;
4. That the City Clerk forward Report ECD 03-26 to Member of Parliament Pickering-Brooklin,
Region of Durham Chair, Region of Durham’s Community Growth and Economic
Development Department, and Regional Clerk as correspondence; and
5. That the appropriate officials of the City of Pickering be authorized to take the actions
necessary to implement the recommendations in this report.
1.0 Executive Summary:
The purpose of this report is to present the City of Pickering Land Use Review and Economic
Analysis of the Pickering Federal Lands Recommendation Report prepared by SGL Planning &
Design Inc. (Attachment 1) and to seek Council endorsement of the Recommendation Report.
The Pickering Federal Lands comprise approximately 3,700 hectares (9,300 acres) of federally
owned land in northwest Pickering and represent one of the most significant long-term
planning opportunities in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Originally expropriated in 1972 for a
proposed airport, the lands have remained under federal ownership for more than five decades
and are currently leased for agricultural, residential, and limited commercial purposes.
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In January 2025, the Government of Canada announced that the lands were no longer needed
for an airport development and expressed its intention to transfer areas with high conservation
value to Parks Canada to expand the Rouge National Urban Park. Additionally, the
government announced a formal consultation process, including existing tenants, Indigenous
communities, and the public, would be initiated to guide decisions on the future uses of these
lands. This decision marked a critical inflection point, creating a unique opportunity for the city
to shape the long-term vision for this significant landholding.
To support its participation in the federal process, Council endorsed the retaining of SGL
Planning & Design Inc., supported by Parcel Economics and Dillon Consulting Limited, to
undertake a comprehensive Land Use Review & Economic Analysis (Resolution #927/26). The
study included a detailed policy and technical analysis, economic modelling, infrastructure
review, and extensive stakeholder and public engagement.
The Recommendation Report evaluates three land use options, and establishes a preferred,
balanced framework that aligns with federal key themes, including Rouge National Urban Park
expansion, environmental protection, agricultural preservation, and economic development.
The recommended approach supports the protection of natural heritage systems, the creation
of a viable long-term agricultural system within the Rouge National Urban Park, and the
strategic development of an employment corridor along Highway 7.
Council endorsement of the Recommendation Report will formalize the City’s position and
ensure that Pickering plays a proactive leadership role in shaping the future of the lands
through the federal decision-making process.
2.0 Relationship to the Pickering Strategic Plan:
The recommendations in this report respond to the Pickering Strategic Plan Priority of
Champion Economic Leadership & Innovation.
3.0 Financial Implications:
There are no additional financial impacts associated with this report.
4.0 Discussion:
The purpose of this report is to present the Land Use Review & Economic Analysis of the
Pickering Federal Lands Recommendation Report prepared by SGL Planning & Design Inc.,
and seek Council endorsement of the attached Recommendation Report.
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4.1 Background
The Pickering Federal Lands have a long planning history that has shaped land use,
infrastructure investments, and regional growth strategies across eastern Greater Toronto
Area. In 1972, approximately 7,500 hectares of land in Pickering and surrounding
municipalities were expropriated by the federal government for the development of an
additional airport for the GTA. Although initial studies and preparatory work were undertaken,
the airport project was halted in 1975, and the lands have since remained under federal
ownership.
Over time, substantial portions of the originally expropriated lands were transferred to Parks
Canada to support creation and expansion of Rouge National Urban Park (RNUP), including
major transfers in 2015 and 2017. Today approximately 3,700 hectares remain under federal
control, and continue to be leased primarily for agricultural use, with smaller areas supporting
hamlets such as Brougham and minor parts Claremont, as well as existing recreational and
community uses.
The remaining federal lands are located within a sensitive and strategic geographic context.
They are adjacent to the Rouge National Urban Park, include portions of the Greenbelt Plan
and Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan, and span important watershed systems such as
Duffins Creek. At the same time, the lands are situated immediately north of Highway 407 and
the emerging Pickering Innovation Corridor, one of the City’s key employment growth areas.
In January 2025, the Federal Government announced that the Pickering Federal Lands would
no longer be used for an airport and initiated a formal consultation process to determine their
future use, alongside an expansion of Rouge National Urban Park. This process involved
engagement with Indigenous communities, stakeholders, all levels of government, and the
public, and was guided by key themes including environmental protection, parkland expansion,
agriculture, economic development, and transportation. The City of Pickering staff and
Members of Council participated in the federal consultation process, including stakeholder
sessions held between March and April 2026.
Recognizing the scale, complexity, and long-term implications of this decision, the City of
Pickering initiated a comprehensive Land Use Review and Economic Analysis to establish an
evidence-based position, that reflects local priorities while aligning with federal objectives. The
City secured an extension to provide a formal submission by the end of May 2026.
4.2 Study Overview and Process
The City retained SGL Planning & Design Inc., supported by Parcel Economics and Dillon
Consulting Limited, to undertake the Land Use Review and Economic Analysis, in accordance
with Council direction (Resolution #927/26). The study was designed as a comprehensive,
multidisciplinary exercise that integrates planning policy, economics, infrastructure, and
environmental considerations. The work included a detailed review of the applicable policy
framework at the provincial, regional, and municipal levels, as well as an analysis of land use
opportunities and constraints. It also incorporated a robust economic and market assessment,
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including demographic trends, employment land demand forecasts, and long-term growth
projections for Pickering and Durham Region.
In addition, the study examined high-level infrastructure and servicing capacity, including
water, wastewater, transportation networks, and transit, as well as the implications of future
investments such as Highway 7 widening and potential high-speed rail. Environmental and
agricultural analyses were also undertaken, including mapping natural heritage systems,
evaluating ecological constraints, and assessing the long-term viability of agricultural uses.
A comprehensive engagement program was implemented, including meetings with Council,
City and Regional staff, local Mayors, key agencies and organizations, and the public.
Feedback gathered through this process played a central role in shaping the land use options
and final recommendations.
4.3 Land Use Options and Public Engagement
Based on the background analysis and federal consultation key themes, the study developed
three distinct land use options that explore varying ratios between environmental conservation,
agricultural preservation, and economic development. Three options were developed with
combinations of employment lands, agricultural systems, and Rouge National Urban Park
expansion. These options evaluated trade-offs related to economic growth, environmental
protection, infrastructure requirements, and long-term sustainability. A fourth option, proposing
full conversion of the lands to parkland as a RNUP expansion, was requested by some
members of the public.
Public and stakeholder engagement was extensive and included a well-attended public open
house held on April 22, 2026, with more than 130 participants, as well as engagement through
Let’s Talk Pickering. Feedback highlighted strong support for environmental protection and
park expansion, while also recognizing the importance of preserving agricultural lands and
leveraging strategic locations for economic development.
Public and stakeholder engagement demonstrated a desire for a balanced approach that
protects natural and agricultural assets while enabling appropriate employment uses,
particularly along major transportation corridors such as Highway 7 and Highway 407.
4.4 Summary of Recommendation Report
The Recommendation Report synthesizes technical analysis and community input to identify a
preferred approach that balances competing priorities and aligns with federal key themes. The
recommended framework recognizes the lands as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to
integrate environmental stewardship, agricultural sustainability, and economic growth.
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The approach prioritizes the identification and protection of all significant natural heritage
features. It also supports the establishment of a strong and viable agricultural system, with an
emphasis on long-term land tenure arrangements that enables farmers to invest in operations.
From an economic perspective, the Recommendation Report identifies a strategic opportunity
to develop an employment corridor along Highway 7 as an extension of the Innovation
Corridor. This approach leverages existing infrastructure investments and market demand for
employment lands, supporting long-term job creation and economic diversification.
The fiscal analysis indicates that development-based scenarios can generate significant
economic benefits, including significant investment, substantial job creation, and ongoing
municipal revenues, while maintaining a positive net operating impact for the City.
The recommendations also address community and recreational needs, including opportunities
for park expansion in Green River and Claremont, continued use of existing recreational
facilities, and revitalization of the Hamlet of Brougham through long-term land tenure solutions.
4.5 Strategic Importance
The Pickering Federal Lands represent one of the most significant land use planning
opportunities in Ontario. Decisions made through the federal process will have lasting
implications for economic development, environmental protection, agricultural sustainability,
and infrastructure planning across the region.
Staff recommend adopting the City of Pickering Federal Lands - Land Use Review & Economic
Analysis Recommendation Report to ensure that Pickering’s interests are clearly articulated as
part of the federal decision-making process. The Recommendation Report equips the City with
a forward‑looking, evidence‑based framework that clarifies land use options, protects
environmental and agricultural assets, and identifies economic opportunities, ensuring
Pickering is positioned to advocate effectively and plan proactively. If endorsed by Council,
staff will submit the Recommendation Report to Transport Canada for consideration and to
Region of Durham for information.
Attachment:
1. City of Pickering Federal Lands - Land Use Review and Economic Analysis
Recommendation Report
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Prepared By: Laraib Arshad, MBA, Manager, Economic Development & Marketing
Prepared By: Hanif Thakor, Senior Officer, Economic Development & Strategic Projects
Approved/Endorsed By: Fiaz Jadoon, Ec.D., CEcD. MPM, B.COMM, Director, Economic
Development & Strategic Projects
Approved/Endorsed By: Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP, Chief Planner
Approved/Endorsed By: Kyle Bentley, P. Eng., Director, City Development & CBO
HT:la
Recommended for the consideration of Pickering City Council By:
Marisa Carpino, M.A.
Chief Administrative Officer
City of Pickering Federal Lands
Land Use Review and Economic Analysis
Recommendation Report
MAY 2026
Attachment 1 - Report ECD 03-26
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Recommendation Report
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ iv
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Purpose of this Report ....................................................................................... 3
1.2 Pickering Federal Airport Lands Location ......................................................... 3
2 Background and Site Analysis .................................................................................. 4
2.1 Planning Policy Framework ............................................................................... 4
2.1.1 Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (ORMCP) (2017) ........................ 4
2.1.2 Greenbelt Plan (2017) ................................................................................ 5
2.1.3 Municipal Zoning Order O. Reg. 102/72 .................................................... 6
2.1.4 Regional Official Plan (Envision Durham) .................................................. 7
2.1.5 Pickering Official Plan (Edition 9) ............................................................... 8
2.1.6 City of Pickering Zoning By-Law 8149/24 ................................................ 12
2.2 Economic Overview ......................................................................................... 13
2.2.1 Demographics .......................................................................................... 13
2.2.2 Industrial / Employment Areas ................................................................. 14
2.2.3 Industrial Inventory ................................................................................... 14
2.2.4 Office & Retail Commercial Inventory ...................................................... 16
2.2.5 Factors Impacting Employment Lands ..................................................... 16
2.2.6 Demands for Employment Lands ............................................................. 18
2.3 Servicing Overview .......................................................................................... 19
2.3.1 Water ........................................................................................................ 20
2.3.2 Wastewater .............................................................................................. 21
2.4 Transportation Overview ................................................................................. 22
2.4.1 Road Infrastructure................................................................................... 22
2.4.2 Active Transportation ............................................................................... 26
2.4.3 Public Transit ............................................................................................ 27
2.4.4 Rail ........................................................................................................... 28
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2.5 Natural Feature Overview................................................................................ 29
2.6 Agricultural Overview ....................................................................................... 33
3 The Land Use Options ............................................................................................ 34
3.1.1 Land Use Option 1 ................................................................................... 35
3.1.2 Land Use Option 1 Opportunities and Constraints ................................... 38
3.1.3 Land Use Option 2 ................................................................................... 40
3.1.4 Land Use Option 2 Opportunities and Constraints ................................... 43
3.1.5 Land Use Option 3 ................................................................................... 45
3.1.6 Land Use Option 3 Opportunities and Constraints ................................... 48
4 Engagement Summary ........................................................................................... 50
5 Recommendations .................................................................................................. 53
Appendix A ..................................................................................................................... 58
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Report Structure
1. Introduction
Introduces the purpose of the land use review and economic
analysis and provides an overview of the study area and its
surrounding area including historical background information.
Federal Key Themes for discussion will also be presented.
2. Background and Site Analysis
Provides a summary of the applicable Provincial, Regional, and
Municipal policies as well as an economic, servicing, and
transportation overview of the Pickering Federal Lands.
3. The Land Use Options
Presents the three proposed land use options and provides a
summary and assessment of three options in relation to the
Federal Key Themes.
4. Engagement Summary
Provides a summary of what we heard from stakeholders,
focus groups, the public, and external agencies as part of the
engagement process.
5. Recommendations
Provides recommendations to inform Council’s strategic
direction.
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Executive Summary
In 1972, approximately 7,500 hectares of land located in the northwest part of Pickering
as well as lands in Markham, Whitchurch-Stouffville and Uxbridge were expropriated by
the Federal Government for the development of a future airport. In 2015 and 2017,
approximately 4,000 hectares of the expropriated land was transferred to Parks Canada
to further expand the adjacent Rouge National Urban Park. The Federal Government
currently retains about 3,700 hectares of land which was intended for an airport and is
currently leased for agricultural, residential and commercial uses.
In January 2025, the Federal Government announced that the expropriated lands in
Pickering (the Pickering Federal Lands) will no longer be used for a future airport. To
determine the future use of these lands, the Federal Government is seeking input from
key stakeholders, the public and First Nations Community.
Federal Key Themes for discussion through its consultations include:
• Expansion of the Rouge National Urban Park;
• Other Conservation and Environmental Protection;
• Other Public Parks and Recreational Spaces;
• Agricultural Use;
• Residential development;
• Commercial development;
• Industrial Development; and
• Transportation.
To provide input to the Federal Government on the Key Themes, the City of Pickering
initiated a comprehensive Land Use Review and Economic Analysis to determine
Pickering’s vision for the future use of the Pickering Federal Lands.
SGL Planning & Design Inc. and its consulting team consisting of Parcel Economics and
Dillion Consulting Limited were retained by the City of Pickering to undertake a
comprehensive land use review and economic analysis for the future use of the
Pickering Federal Lands. This Recommendation Report presents the findings of that
work. To respond to the Federal Key Themes, three land use options were prepared.
These three land use options explored different balances between the Federal Key
Themes.
Extensive and comprehensive engagement was conducted on the land use options.
Several focus groups were conducted including Members of Council, City and Regional
staff, Durham Agricultural Advisory Committee (DAAC), Lakeridge Health, Landowners
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Group, Mayors from surrounding municipalities, the local MP as well as members of the
public at the Public Open House.
The Staff Recommended Land Use Plan balances the Federal Key Themes to develop
a long-term plan for the Pickering Federal Lands. Recommendations include:
• identify, stake and transfer all significant natural heritage features to the Rouge
Natural Urban Park;
• create a vibrant agricultural system where farmers are incentivized to invest in
farm improvements. These lands could be included in an expanded Rouge
National Urban Park provided the Federal Government provides long-term
leases and incentives for farmers to invest in the lands;
• develop an economic corridor along Highway 7;
• transfer 20 hectares near Green River to the City of Pickering for an expansion
to the District Park;
• transfer 10 hectares in the Hamlet of Claremont to the City of Pickering for park
purposes;
• transfer Don Beer Memorial Park in the Hamlet of Brougham to the City of
Pickering;
• other existing recreational uses given the opportunity to acquire long-term
leases;
• conserve and actively reuse existing cultural heritage buildings;
• further investigate the presence of significant archaeological sites;
• Transport Canada to work with the Provincial Government to revoke O.Reg
102/72;
• revitalize the Hamlet of Brougham with lessees in the Hamlet provided the
opportunity to either purchase their leased properties or enter into long-term
leases;
• Transport Canada to upgrade and improve existing roads and construct Sideline
20, 22 and 26 realignments and accommodate widening of Highway 7; and
• Transport Canda to work with Durham Region to coordinate water and
wastewater servicing capacity and requirements for the economic corridor.
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1 Introduction
In 1972, approximately 7,500 hectares of land was expropriated by the Federal
Government for the development of a future airport. In 2015 and 2017, approximately
4,000 hectares of the expropriated land was transferred to Parks Canada to further
expand the adjacent Rouge National Urban Park. The Federal Government currently
retains about 3,700 hectares of land (outlined by the red line on Figure 1) which was
intended for an airport and is currently leased for agricultural, residential and
commercial uses.
In January 2025, the Federal Government announced that the expropriated lands in
Pickering (the “Pickering Federal Lands”) will no longer be used for a future airport. To
determine the future use of these lands, the Federal Government is seeking input from
all levels of government, the local community and the public. A decision by the
Government of Canada on the future uses of the Pickering Federal Lands will be
informed by First Nations consultations, engagement with key stakeholders, public
consultations and an analysis of potential land use options and priorities.
Transport Canada is working with several federal agencies such as Parks Canada,
Public Services and Procurement Canda, Canada Lands Company, and Housing,
Infrastructure and Communities Canada to explore future uses for the Pickering Federal
Lands. Federal Key Themes for the discussion of potential future uses on the Pickering
Federal Lands help identify federal projects or initiatives, in addition to a transfer of
lands to Parks Canada for the expansion of Rouge National Urban Park. The lands
could also be considered for agricultural uses, parks and recreation spaces and other
conservation uses to ensure protection of the natural environment. The Canada Lands
Company is assisting Transport Canada to reintegrate former Government of Canada
properties into local communities while ensuring their long-term sustainability and
commercial viability. Additionally, the Alto High-Speed Rail is undertaking a multi-
phased public engagement process for development of a high-speed rail line. These
lands are proposed by the City of Pickering for a future stop.
Federal Key Themes for discussion through its consultations include:
• Expansion of the Rouge National Urban Park;
• Other Conservation and Environmental Protection;
• Other Public Parks and Recreational Spaces;
• Agricultural Use;
• Residential development;
• Commercial development;
• Industrial Development; and
• Transportation.
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To provide input to the Federal Government on the Key Themes, the City of Pickering is
conducting a comprehensive Land Use Review and Economic Analysis to determine
Pickering’s vision for the future use of the Pickering Federal Lands.
SGL Planning & Design Inc. (SGL) and its consulting team consisting of Parcel
Economics (Parcel) and Dillion Consulting Limited (Dillion) were retained by the City of
Pickering to undertake a comprehensive land use review and economic analysis for the
future use of the Pickering Federal Lands.
As shown on Figure 1, about 40% of the Pickering Federal Lands are within the
Provincial Greenbelt Plan Area/Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan Area. The
Pickering Federal Lands border the Rouge National Urban Park to the north and west
and the Pickering Innovation Corridor as well as a Pickering district park to the south
along Highway 407. The Hamlet of Brougham and a small portion of the Hamlet of
Claremont are located within the Pickering Federal Lands.
Figure 1: Pickering Federal Lands Context Map
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The Pickering Federal Lands primarily contain agricultural fields, natural features and
some rural residential uses. As well, commercial, residential, employment and
community uses are located in the Hamlets of Brougham and Claremont. The Pickering
Federal Lands also contain existing active recreational uses such as the Pickering Glen
Golf Club at Seventh Concession Road and Sideline 32, the Oshawa Competition
Motorcycle Club at Eighth Concession Road and Brock Road, as well as cemeteries
along Highway 7 (Green River Baptist Cemetery), Sideline 20 (Sharrard Cemetery), and
Eighth Concession Road (Mach-Pelah Cemetery). The CPKC Rail line also runs
through the Pickering Federal Lands diagonally from York Durham Townline through
Claremont as shown on Figure 1.
1.1 Purpose of this Report
The purpose of this Pickering Federal Lands Land Use Review & Economic Analysis
(“Report”) is to inform Pickering Council’s strategic direction and advocacy efforts as
part of the Federal Government’s consultation on the future use of the Pickering Federal
Lands. This Report provides a background overview and site analysis of the Pickering
Federal Lands and its surrounding area, describes three alternative land use options,
and provides recommendations to the Federal government on the future use of the
Pickering Federal Lands.
1.2 Pickering Federal Airport Lands Location
The Pickering Federal Lands are located in the northwest part of Pickering, just north of
Highway 407 and the Seaton Community as shown on Figure 1. The Pickering Federal
Lands are generally bound by Ninth Concession Road and the Rouge National Urban
Park to the north, Sideline 16 to the east, Highway 7 to the south, and York Durham
Townline and the Rouge National Urban Park to the west. The Pickering Federal Lands
are approximately 3,700 hectares with 1,200 hectares of that land area within the
Provincial Greenbelt Plan Area and 300 hectares of land within the Provincial Oak
Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan Area.
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2 Background and Site Analysis
The following section provides a summary of the applicable land use planning policy
framework, a summary of the current and future demographic and economic trends, and
a summary of the existing servicing and transportation infrastructure for the Pickering
Federal Lands. This background and site analysis helped inform the development of the
three land use options.
2.1 Planning Policy Framework
This section reviews the applicable Provincial, Regional, and local Municipal planning
policy framework including permitted use to help inform the proposed land uses in the
three land use options. Although this Report takes the applicable planning policies into
consideration, the Federal Government could choose to supersede these policies if the
Pickering Federal Lands remain Crown Lands.
2.1.1 Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan (ORMCP) (2017)
Approximately 300 hectares of the Pickering Federal Lands are within the ORMCP
within the Countryside Area and the Natural Linkage Area designations as shown on
Figure 2. The ORMCP is an ecologically based plan that provides land use and
resource management direction to protect its ecological and hydrological features and
functions. The Pickering Federal Lands include two ORMCP designations - Natural
Linkage Area and Countryside Area.
The purpose of Natural Linkage Areas is to improve or restore, where possible the
ecological integrity of the ORMCP area as well as linkages within the ORMCP area
(ORMCP 12(1)). Permitted uses within the Natural Linkage Area include but are not
limited to agricultural, infrastructure, home industry, low-intensity recreation, and
conservation uses (ORMCP 12(3)).
The purpose of Countryside Areas is to encourage agricultural and other rural uses
(ORMCP 13(1)). Permitted uses within the Countryside Areas include but are not limited
to agricultural; infrastructure; home industry; low-intensity recreation; small-scale
commercial, industrial and institutional uses complementary to permitted primary uses,
and conservation uses (ORMCP 13(3)).
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Figure 2: Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan Land Use Designation Map – Map 5
(Township of Uxbridge, City of Pickering)
2.1.2 Greenbelt Plan (2017)
Approximately 1,260 hectares of the Pickering Federal Lands are within the Greenbelt
Plan Area in the Protected Countryside and the Natural Heritage System as shown on
Figure 3.
The Protected Countryside is intended to support a range of recreational, tourism,
institutional, and resource-based commercial/industrial uses (GP 3.1.4.1). Farm
practices and a full range of agricultural uses, agriculture-related uses and on-farm
diversified uses are permitted (GP 3.1.4.2).
The entirety of the lands within the Protected Countryside are also within the Natural
Heritage System. Key natural heritage and key hydrologic features are to be protected
including any associated vegetation protection zones (GP 3.2.2).
Pickering
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Figure 3: Greenbelt Plan Map Extract
2.1.3 Municipal Zoning Order O. Reg. 102/72
O. Reg. 102/72 is a regulation passed by the Minister of Municipal Housing and Affairs
under the Planning Act that establishes provincial zoning control to restrict development
on the Pickering Federal Lands and overrides any municipal zoning by-laws.
O. Reg. 102/72 reserves the entirety of the Pickering Federal Lands for the
development of a future airport. All buildings or structures are prohibited on the
Pickering Federal Lands with the exception of agricultural uses and buildings/structures
accessory to it including one single detached dwelling in connection to the agricultural
operations.
Pickering
Federal Lands
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Although the Federal Government announced in January 2025 that the Pickering
Federal Lands would no longer be used for a future airport, this regulation is currently
still in effect and prevents development on the Pickering Federal Lands.
2.1.4 Regional Official Plan (Envision Durham)
Envision Durham was the Region of Durham’s Official Plan (ROP), which was adopted
by Regional Council in May 2023, and approved by the Minister of Municipal Affairs and
Housing in September 2024. As of January 1, 2025, the Region of Durham was defined
by the Province as an “upper-tier municipality without planning responsibilities so
Envision Durham is now part of the City of Pickering’s Official Plan.
Envision Durham was written prior to the Federal Government’s decision to no longer
use the Pickering Federal Lands for a future airport so policies pertaining to the
Pickering Federal Lands protect for a future airport in Pickering.
Figure 4: Region of Durham Official Plan – Map 1 Regional Structure
Envision Durham identifies the Pickering Federal Lands within Special Study Area #1 as
shown on Figure 4 and requires further analysis for the development of a future airport
to align with federal, provincial, regional and local municipal plans and servicing
requirements (ROP 9.1). It is noted that Special Study Area #1 has protected for a
future airport since the Region’s first Official Plan so any proposed or recommended
land uses on the Pickering Federal Lands are not contemplated in Envision Durham.
Policy 5.5.30 of the ROP states that should the Pickering Federal Lands no longer be
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Federal Lands
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required for major facilities (an airport), additional uses may be permitted subject to
planning studies and land use compatibility.
The Pickering Federal Lands are also directly adjacent to Specific Policy Area D –
Rouge National Urban Park (RNUP), west of the Pickering Federal Lands as shown on
Figure 4. Specific Policy Area D encourages adjacent land uses (such as the Pickering
Federal Lands) to have consideration for connections to the active transportation
network and compatibility with the RNUP Management Plan (ROP 9.2.11).
2.1.5 Pickering Official Plan (Edition 9)
In the Pickering Official Plan (POP), the following land use designations, as shown on
Figure 5, apply in the Pickering Federal Lands:
• Natural Areas including the Greenbelt Natural Heritage System;
• Active Recreational Areas;
• Rural Hamlets;
• Proposed Airport Site;
• Prime Agricultural Areas;
• Oak Ridges Moraine Natural Linkage Areas; and
• Oak Ridges Moraine Countryside Areas.
The Proposed Airport Site designation is an overlay designation that applies to the
Pickering Federal Lands west of Brock Road as shown on Figure 5. Policy 2.17 of the
POP applies to the Proposed Airport Site designation and only permits open space and
agricultural uses until a decision is made regarding a future airport. Since a decision
was made in January 2025, this policy is no longer relevant.
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Figure 5: Pickering Official Plan Ed.9 – Schedule I, Sheet 2 of 3 (Land Use Structure)
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Active Recreational Areas
The existing Pickering Glen Golf Club along Seventh Concession Road just west of
Sideline 32 is designated as Active Recreational Areas within the Greenbelt Plan.
Rural Hamlets
Two rural hamlets, namely, Brougham in the southeast and a small portion of Claremont
in the northeast are located within the Pickering Federal Lands. Rural Hamlets are
historic settlements that focus on limited rural growth and development within the
existing hamlet boundary and serve as the service and social centres of the surrounding
rural area. The Rural Hamlets designation permits residential, employment, commercial,
community, cultural, and recreational uses (POP 3.10 – Table 10).
Brougham
Figure 6 identifies the land uses in Brougham. As shown, most of Brougham is
located within the Pickering Federal Lands. (POP 13.6).
Figure 6: Pickering Official Plan Schedule IV-4: Brougham
Within Brougham, the Pickering Federal Lands are designated Hamlet
Residential, Hamlet Commercial, Hamlet Employment, and Open Space System
– Natural Areas. Permitted uses for each designation include:
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• Hamlet Residential – residential, home occupation, community, cultural,
recreation, limited retail office, business, personal service, and
employment uses.
• Hamlet Commercial – retail, office, business, personal service and
employment, residential, home occupation, community, cultural, and
recreation uses.
• Hamlet Employment – manufacturing, research and development,
warehousing, office, and automotive uses.
• Open Space System – Natural Areas – conservation, environmental
protection, and passive recreation uses.
Claremont
A portion of Claremont is also located within the Pickering Federal Lands as
shown on Figure 7.
Figure 7: Pickering Official Plan Schedule IV-10: Claremont-South Section
Within Claremont, the Pickering Federal Lands are within the Oak Ridges
Moraine Conservation Plan Area boundary and are designated Hamlet
Residential, Open Space System – Recreational Areas, and Open Space System
– Natural Areas in the Pickering Official Plan. Permitted uses for each
designation include:
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• Hamlet Residential – residential, home occupation, community, cultural,
recreation, limited retail office, business, personal service and employment
uses.
• Open Space System – Recreational Areas – conservation,
environmental protection, active and passive recreation, and community
and cultural uses.
• Open Space System – Natural Areas – conservation, environmental
protection, and passive recreation uses.
Prime Agricultural Areas
Most of the Pickering Federal Lands outside of the Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation
Plan Area and the Greenbelt Plan Area are designated Prime Agricultural Areas as
shown on Figure 5.
The Prime Agricultural Areas designation permits primary agricultural uses (i.e., growing
crops and raising livestock), agricultural-related uses, on-farm diversified uses, and non-
agricultural uses (i.e., conservation and mineral aggregate extraction) (POP 3.11 –
Table 11).
2.1.6 City of Pickering Zoning By-Law 8149/24
The City of Pickering Zoning By-law (ZBL) 8149/24 is a municipal by-law that regulates
the type of land uses and activities that may occur on a property as well as the
performance standards of buildings or structures (i.e., height, location and massing).
The ZBL implements the policies of the POP by providing more specific permitted land
uses and requirements for buildings or structures on a lot.
Most of the Pickering Federal Lands are zoned Agriculture in the ZBL as shown on
Figure 8. The Agriculture zone generally permits a variety of agricultural uses,
agricultural-related uses, on-farm diversified uses, as well as community uses.
The north portion of the Pickering Federal Lands within the Oak Ridges Moraines
Conservation Plan Area are zoned Oak Ridges Moraine – Agricultural (ORMA) and Oak
Ridges Moraine – Environmental Protection (ORMEP). The ORMA zone permits
agriculture, agricultural-related uses, on-farm diversified uses, and conservation uses.
The ORMEP zone only permits conservation uses.
The portion of the Pickering Federal Lands within the hamlet of Brougham are subject to
Exception Zone 329 which permits detached dwellings as well as commercial, office
and retail uses with site-specific zone provisions for lot area, frontage, side yard
setback, amongst others.
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Figure 8: City of Pickering Zoning By-law 8149/24 Schedule Extract
2.2 Economic Overview
The following section provides an overview of the economics of various land uses within
the City of Pickering and Durham Region and summarizes the ongoing economic trends
in Pickering and Durham Region.
2.2.1 Demographics
Population growth in both Pickering and Durham Region has outpaced Greater Toronto
Area (GTA) growth since 2016, including significant growth since 2021 as shown on
Figure 9. As of 2025, the population of Pickering was about 118,000 people and the
population of Durham Region was about 811,000 people.
Based on projections prepared by metroeconomics, the population in Durham Region is
anticipated to grow to as many as 1.3 million residents by 2071 with the GTA growing to
11.1 million residents over this same period. A growing population increases demand
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Greenbelt
Plan Area
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for housing, employment, and supporting infrastructure in both the City of Pickering and
Durham Region.
Figure 9: Population Growth Rates, Pickering, Durham Region & GTA (2011 to 2025)
Source: Parcel, based on Statistics Canada population estimates. Population adjusted for undercount.
2.2.2 Industrial / Employment Areas
Based on the Provincial Planning Statement, Employment Areas means those areas
designated in an official plan for clusters of business and economic activities including
manufacturing, research and development in connection with manufacturing,
warehousing, goods movement, associated retail and office, and ancillary facilities.
However, due to recent changes to the PPS, they do not include institutional and
commercial uses, including retail and office uses not associated with the primary
employment noted listed above.
2.2.3 Industrial Inventory
There are 541 hectares (58.2 million square feet) of employment/industrial space in
Durham Region, 97 hectares (10.4 million square feet) of which are in Pickering as
shown on Figure 10. Durham Region industrial space represents approximately 6% of
industrial inventory across the GTA.
Figure 10: Industrial Space Inventory, GTA (Q1 2026)
Source: Parcel, based on CoStar Realty Services.
3.7%
6.3%
6.0%
9.5%
9.2%
5.6%
14.3%
11.3%
9.7%
Pickering
Durham
Region
GTA
2011-2016
2016-2021
2021-2025
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Construction of industrial space in Durham Region has increased significantly since
2020. Prior to 2020, Durham Region accounted for just 3% of new industrial space
delivery in the GTA. Since 2020, that share has grown to 19% as shown on Figure 11.
This significant increase depicts that there is growing demand for industrial lands in
Durham Region linked to demand in the GTA more broadly.
Figure 11: Industrial New Space Delivery, Durham Region & GTA (2013-2025)
Source: Parcel, based on CoStar Realty Services. Space delivery for 2026 was excluded due to limited
data availability.
Just south of the Pickering Federal Lands is the Pickering Innovation Corridor as shown
on Figure 12. The Innovation Corridor is approximately 324 hectares (801 acres) and
the lands are reserved for high employment generating uses such as light
manufacturing, light service industries, research and development industries,
warehousing, offices, restaurants, and more. The Innovation Corridor is expected to
introduce 24,000 jobs and recent employment development within the Innovation
Corridor includes high employment generating uses such as Kubota Canada’s Head
Office, Smart Centres, and FGF Brands.
1.2 M
4.1 M
1.5 M 1.2 M
4.4 M
1.9 M
5.2 M
8.2 M
4.5 M
6.9 M
7.9 M
5.4 M
7.2 M
12.6 M
10.5 M
9.2 M
19.2 M
17.2 M
12.8 M
0 sf
2,000,000 sf
4,000,000 sf
6,000,000 sf
8,000,000 sf
10,000,000 sf
12,000,000 sf
14,000,000 sf
16,000,000 sf
18,000,000 sf
20,000,000 sf
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Durham Region
GTA
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Figure 12: Pickering Innovation Corridor
In addition to this existing space, there are 462 hectares (49.7 million square feet) of
industrial space proposed in the GTA. Approximately 9% of proposed space is in
Durham Region (39 hectares or 4.2 million square feet). There remains strong interest
in industrial space in Durham Region and the City of Pickering.
2.2.4 Office & Retail Commercial Inventory
Pickering and Durham Region represent a relatively small share of existing and
proposed office space in the GTA. Standalone office uses are likely not viable on the
Pickering Federal Lands due to a combination of location, marketability, and a large
supply of vacant office space and office sites in the GTA east and Durham Region,
however, there may be office components of large industrial operations.
Retail commercial inventory is typically driven by nearby residential population. Given a
lack of nearby supporting population base, demand for retail/service commercial space
will likely be limited to facilities supporting the local employment base.
2.2.5 Factors Impacting Employment Lands
Industries that typically locate on employment lands include manufacturing,
transportation /warehousing (including warehousing and storage and data centres),
wholesale trade, and construction. These industries typically require large greenfield
parcels with convenient access to highway transportation.
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Output from warehousing and storage, wholesale trade, and construction has more than
doubled since the late 1990s while output from manufacturing has decreased as shown
on Figure 13. Most employment lands industries have grown faster than service-
producing industries in Ontario.
Figure 13: Index of GDP at Basic Prices by Sector, Ontario (1997-2024)
Source: Parcel, based on Statistics Canada Table 36-10-0711-01
These trends are projected to continue to 2071 in both Durham Region and the GTA as
shown on Figure 14. Notably, GDP growth in Durham Region is anticipated to outpace
GDP growth in the GTA reflecting a growing importance for Durham Region to provide
appropriate employment lands. Therefore, it will be important for Durham Region and
Pickering to have a sufficient supply of shovel ready industrial lands that are available to
accommodate growth and provide sufficient market choice.
Services-Producing Industries, 214Construction, 217
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade, 232
Transportation & Warehousing, 172
Warehousing & Storage, 506
0
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600
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Figure 14: Index of GDP Projects by Sector, Durham Region & GTA (2021 to 2071)
Source: Parcel, based on metroeconomics projections.
2.2.6 Demands for Employment Lands
Envision Durham estimates the need for an additional 1,171 gross hectares of
employment lands in Durham Region to 2051. Much of this demand is anticipated to be
met by future employment areas within Northeast Pickering as well as surrounding
municipalities like Clarington and Oshawa.
Beyond 2051, Parcel forecast a demand for additional employment lands to 2071.
These forecasts anticipate that gross domestic product (“GDP”) for employment land
related industries in Durham is projected to grow by $4.0 billion between 2051 and 2071
as shown on Figure 15. This growth will require an additional 29.1 million square feet of
employment lands between 2051 and 2071. Assuming 30% site coverage and an 80%
net-to-gross ratio, this translates a need for approximately 1,127 gross hectares of
employment lands between 2051 and 2071 across Durham Region.
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Figure 15: Estimated Demand for Employment Lands based on $GDP per Square
Foot, Durham Region (2051 to 2071)
Source: Parcel, based on GDP projections prepared by metroeconomics and industrial inventory data
from CoStar Realty Inc.
Given that the Pickering Innovation Corridor borders the Pickering Federal Lands,
accommodating the long-term demand for high employment generating uses on the
Pickering Federal Lands would be a logical extension of the emerging employment area
along Highway 407 and Highway 7 corridor. The lands are contiguous and additional
employment uses in this location can help create a stronger Pickering employment hub.
2.3 Servicing Overview
This section summarizes the existing water and wastewater conditions within and in
proximity to the Pickering Federal Lands. In 2015, the Region of Durham entered into a
front-ending agreement with the Seaton Landowners Group. Part of that agreement
was to oversize their water and wastewater piping and some vertical assets (reservoirs
and pumping stations) through the Seaton community to accommodate the future
airport on the Pickering Federal Lands. The Seaton Landowners Group is responsible to
fund a portion of the Federal oversizing costs related to water and sewer assets and the
Region is committed to seek cost recovery from the current or future owners of the
Pickering Federal Lands on behalf of the Seaton Landowners Group through the
imposition of area-specific development charges or other financial instruments
available.
GDP ($millions)2025 2051 2071
Construction $2,385 $4,058 $5,990
Manufacturing $2,372 $1,757 $1,356
Wholesale Trade $2,314 $4,109 $6,068
Transportation / Warehousing $1,037 $1,677 $2,241
Total $8,108 $11,601 $15,655
2025 Industrial Inventory (CoStar Q4)58.2M SF
GDP per square foot (2025)$139 PSF
2051 to 2071 GDP Delta ($ millions)$4,054
2051 to 2071
Additional Industrial Inventory Required 29.1M SF
Site Coverage 30%
SF 97.0M SF
Net ha 901 ha
Net-to-Gross 80%
Gross ha 1,127 ha
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2.3.1 Water
The responsibility for water supply in the City of Pickering lies with the Region of
Durham. No local or trunk watermains are located within the Pickering Federal Lands,
however, the Seaton Zone 5 Booster Pumping Station is located within the Pickering
Federal Lands, just west of Sideline 26 (as shown on Figure 16). It is sized to service
the Seaton Lands with a capacity of 200 litres per second. The Zone 5 Booster Pumping
Station facility was designed to allow for expansion of the Zone 5 pumping capabilities
and to accommodate a Zone 6 pumping station when a future airport was envisioned. A
small communal water system owned by the Federal Government is also located in
Brougham around the area of Donnalea Avenue and Orchard Heights Drive.
Water to the existing Seaton community south of the Pickering Federal Lands is
provided by the Ajax Water Supply Plant located on the shores of Lake Ontario. The
Ajax Water Supply Plant has a rated capacity of 163.5 million litres of water each day
and the Region of Durham is currently undertaking a Class Environmental Assessment
to expand its water supply due to increased system demand and community growth.
The Region’s capital forecast identifies 100 percent funding for the Ajax Water Supply
Plant expansion by 2032, which is subject to review on an annual basis.
Water servicing planned for Pickering does not contemplate development beyond what
was required for the future airport on the Pickering Federal Lands and some supporting
employment uses. Any other development proposals would require further analysis and
financial commitment and does not imply there is downstream system capacity available
to service the Pickering Federal Lands. Timing for any development on the Pickering
Federal Lands should be aligned with other infrastructure improvements including the
Ajax Water Supply Plant expansion (detailed design expected to be completed by
2028), as well as utility companies (i.e. Enbridge and Elexicon Energy).
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Figure 16: Water Distribution Network around the Pickering Federal Lands
2.3.2 Wastewater
The responsibility for wastewater servicing in the City of Pickering lies with the Region
of Durham. No local or trunk sanitary mains are located within the Pickering Federal
Lands, however, five trunk sanitary main connection points are planned along the south
boundary of the Pickering Federal Lands from the Seaton community as shown on
Figure 17. Between the planned connection points, a total allocated capacity of
approximately 300 litres of wastewater per second is available for the Pickering Federal
Lands and a remaining 1,700 litres per second is available for planned growth
elsewhere.
Wastewater in the City of Pickering is conveyed to the Duffin Creek Water Pollution
Control Plant in Pickering and discharged to Lake Ontario. The Duffin Creek Water
Pollution Control Plant has a rated capacity of 630 million litres of wastewater each day
and the Region of Durham is currently upgrading the Duffin Creek Water Pollution
Control Plant to address future capacity limitation of the sewer discharge.
Wastewater servicing planned downstream does not contemplate development on the
Pickering Federal Lands beyond what was required for the future airport and some
supporting employment uses. Any greater development would require further analysis
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and financial commitment and does not imply there is system capacity available to the
south. Timing for any development on the Pickering Federal Lands should be aligned
with other infrastructure improvements including the Duffin Creek Water Pollution
Control Plan expansion.
Figure 17: Wastewater Distribution Network and Connection Points in Seaton
2.4 Transportation Overview
This section summarizes the existing road network hierarchy, active transportation
network, public transit, and rail network within the Pickering Federal Lands and its
surrounding areas.
2.4.1 Road Infrastructure
Various existing and planned road infrastructure are within and adjacent to the Pickering
Federal Lands as shown on Figure 18. Highway 407 has three existing interchanges
(York Durham Line, Whites Road and Brock Road) and a fourth interchange planned
(Peter Matthews Drive) just south of the Pickering Federal Lands.
Existing Type A Arterial roads include Brock Road (north/south) and Highway 7
(east/west) which borders the Pickering Federal Lands. A second north/south Type A
Arterial (Whites Road) terminates at Highway 7 just south of the Pickering Federal
Lands in the Seaton community.
Existing Type B Arterial roads include York-Durham Line (north/south) which borders
the Pickering Federal Lands to the west and the Ninth Concession Road (east/west) at
the north end of the Pickering Federal Lands. Sideline 26 (from Seventh Concession
Road to Highway 7) and Seventh Concession Road were planned to be Type B
Arterials, and Sideline 22 (from Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7) was planned
to be a Type C Arterial, but were deferred “pending further study of matters related to
the transportation services of Seaton and the Airport”.
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A Preliminary Design Study and Class Environmental Assessment (Class EA) to widen
Highway 7 from 200 metres west of Ressor Road in Markham to approximately 200
metres west of Brock Road in Pickering was initiated in Fall 2025. The study is expected
to be completed in Fall 2027, which will recommend a preferred preliminary design for
widening the highway. The majority of Highway 7 within the Pickering Federal Lands is
subject to this Environmental Assessment.
All other roads within the Pickering Federal Lands are unpaved local roads.
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Figure 18: Existing and Future Transportation System within the Pickering Federal Lands
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As part of the April 2025 Highway 7 Highway Access Management Plan prepared by BA
Group on behalf of the Province of Ontario, Region of Durham, City of Pickering and
Seaton Landowners Group along the Pickering Innovation Corridor, road realignments
were recommended to address the needs of development in the Innovation Corridor
and future growth. These planned road realignments onto the Pickering Federal Lands
north of Highway 7 include: Sideline 26 – to align with Whites Road (Figure 19),
Sideline 20 – to align with Country Lane (Figure 20), and Sideline 22 – to align with
planned Peter Matthews Drive (three alignment options – Figure 21).
Figure 19: Sideline 26 Realignment Figure 20: Country Lane /Sideline 20
Realignment
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Figure 21: Sideline 22 Realignment – Three Alternatives
2.4.2 Active Transportation
Existing active transportation facilities in and around the Pickering Federal Lands
include buffered bike lanes along Whites Road and sections of paved shoulders along
Highway 7 from York Durham Line to Mowbray Street which is identified as a future
cycling facility in the Province-Wide Cycling Network and Regional Cycling Plan. The
planned Province-Wide Cycling Network travels along the edges of the Pickering
Federal Lands as shown on Figure 22. The planned Regional Primary Cycling Network
(PCN) also provides connections to the Pickering Federal Lands as shown on Figure
22.
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Figure 22: Active Transportation Facilities around the Pickering Federal Lands from
Regional Official Plan, Map 3D – Active Transportation Network
2.4.3 Public Transit
Highway 7 and Peter Matthews Drive (planned) are ‘Transit Spines’ and Highway 407
and Brock Road are ‘Transit Feeders’ as identified in the City of Pickering’s Official
Plan. ‘Transit Spines’ are corridors where a higher level of transit service is encouraged
within the City’s urban area and ‘Transit Feeders’ are corridors where a higher level of
transit service is encouraged connecting the City with other areas.
According to the Region’s Transportation Master Plan, Highway 7 and Brock Road
within the Pickering Federal Lands are identified as High Frequency Bus in Shared
Lane and Other Transit Spine, respectively as shown on Figure 23.
Claremont
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Figure 23: 2031 Higher-Order Transit Network from Durham Transportation Master
Plan
A GO Bus station / Park & Ride / Carpool lot is located at the northwest corner of Brock
Road and Ashe Avenue, just south of Highway 407.
Three Highway 407 transitway stations are planned along Highway 407 at Whites Road,
Peter Matthews Drive, and Brock Road, just south of the Pickering Federal Lands as
shown on Figure 18.
2.4.4 Rail
The CPKC Rail Line bisects the Pickering Federal Lands as shown on Figure 18. The
CPKC Rail Line through Pickering is proposed as a possible commuter rail corridor with
speeds reaching 300 kilometres per hour or more for the Toronto-Quebec City High-
Speed Rail Network (Alto) which will connect Toronto and Quebec City.
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Alto is currently studying a corridor approximately 10 kilometres wide to explore various
alignment elements, conduct environmental and technical studies, and gather public
input to refine the corridor. Ultimately, the corridor right-of-way will average about 60
metres wide. No route options have been presented by Alto at this time.
Following a preliminary analysis covering technical, environmental, social and financial
aspects of the project, Alto will work on determining a preferred alignment with the first
segment connecting Ottawa and Montreal. A high-level timeline found on Alto’s project
website is shown on Figure 24.
Figure 24: Alto Project Timeline
There are currently eight at-grade rail/road crossings within the Pickering Federal Lands
and they include:
• York Durham Line;
• Seventh, Eighth, and Ninth Concession Road; and
• Sidelines 20, 22, 24 and 28.
2.5 Natural Feature Overview
This section highlights the natural heritage features in the Pickering Federal Lands from
mapping from the Toronto Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) regulated areas,
Ecological Land Classification Ranking, and the City of Pickering and Region of Durham
Official Plans.
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Figure 25 below depicts the TRCA floodline and TRCA regulated areas which
represents constraints to development within the Pickering Federal Lands.
Figure 25: TRCA Regulated Areas within and around the Pickering Federal Lands
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Figure 26 identifies high level ecological land classification in and around the Pickering
Federal Lands. The majority of the Pickering Federal Lands do not have a rank for the
ecological land classification because the lands are actively farmed for agricultural uses.
A small portion of lands contain regional species of conservation concern in the
southwest and in the north and should be protected.
Figure 26: Ecological Land Classification Ranking within and around the Pickering
Federal Lands
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Figure 27 depicts a high level mapping of natural features based on these sources and
the City of Pickering and Region of Durham Official Plan mapping.
Figure 27: Natural Features within and surrounding the Pickering Federal Lands
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2.6 Agricultural Overview
The Pickering Federal Lands are approximately 90% farmed by tenant farmers who
alternate between crops of corn, soy and winter wheat. Some small-scale alternate
farming operations are also present on the Pickering Federal Lands including
community gardens, mushroom farming, and livestock. Tenant farmers currently rent
their land at a cost of $120 per workable acre per year.
The majority of the Pickering Federal Lands are considered prime agricultural lands
(class 1, 2 and 3) and have no significant limitations in terms of land capability for
agricultural except for some organic soils in the north and southeast as shown on
Figure 28.
Figure 28: Canada Land Inventory within and around the Pickering Federal Lands
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3 The Land Use Options
To provide input to Transport Canada’s engagement and to inform Council’s formal
recommendations to be put forward to the Federal Government, the consulting team
prepared three land use options that address the Key Themes identified by Transport
Canada. These Key Themes include:
• Expansion of Rouge National Urban Park;
• Other Conservation and Environmental Protection;
• Other Public Parks and Recreational Spaces;
• Agricultural;
• Residential Development;
• Commercial Development;
• Industrial Development; and
• Transportation.
The options were developed based on background review provided in this report,
opportunities and constraints, the Federal Key Themes, and policy direction. The land
use options were prepared for discussion purposes to assist in the preparation of a
Recommended Land Use Plan and recommendations from the City of Pickering on their
vision for the long-term use of the Pickering Federal Lands.
A Fiscal Analysis was undertaken by Parcel to evaluate the three land use options from
a fiscal impact perspective. The analysis estimated the economic impact of each option
and modelled one-time investments, jobs generated, revenues, and municipal costs at
full build-out. A detailed analysis of the fiscal impacts are included in Appendix A of this
Report.
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3.1.1 Land Use Option 1
Option 1 consists of the following proposed land areas as shown on Figure 29:
565 hectares of agriculture system
(15% of Federal Lands)
1,100 hectares of industrial/employment
(30% of Federal Lands)
22,700 jobs
1,430 hectares of Rouge National Urban Park
(including natural heritage features)
(39% of Federal Lands)
775 hectares of natural heritage features
(outside of RNUP)
(21% of Federal Lands)
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Figure 29: Land Use Option 1
Rouge National Urban Park Expansion
It is proposed that all lands within the Greenbelt Plan Area and the Oak Ridges Moraine
Conservation Plan be transferred to the Rouge National Urban Park. This area
represents approximately 1,430 hectares including the natural heritage features.
Conservation and Environmental Protection
The Natural Features are based on the Toronto Region Conservation Authority
regulated areas as well as the Natural Areas of the Pickering Official Plan. Option 1
protects 775 hectares of significant natural heritage features excluding the natural
heritage features within the proposed Rouge National Urban Park.
Public Parks and Recreational Spaces
The existing Pickering Glen Golf Club and the Oshawa Competition Motorcycle Club
within the Pickering Federal Lands should be maintained.
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Agricultural Use
Option 1 proposes that the lands between the industrial / employment area and the
expanded Rouge National Urban Park generally straddling Eighth Concession Road be
designated as a privately-owned agricultural system which comprises approximately
565 hectares. The proposed agricultural system would be comprised of a group of inter-
connected elements that collectively create a viable, thriving agri-food sector. Based on
the PPS 2024 definition, these elements consist of prime agricultural areas/rural lands
as well as an agri-food network which includes agricultural operations, infrastructure,
services and assets essential to the viability of the agri-food sector.
Residential Development
No residential development is proposed as part of this option.
Industrial / Employment Development
This Option maximizes the amount of industrial/employment lands based on the
calculated future need of 1,100 hectares to 2071. The industrial/employment lands are
proposed to be located from Highway 7 north to halfway between Seventh Concession
Road and Eighth Concession Road, between Sideline 28 and the eastern boundary of
the Pickering Federal Lands. This amount of land could generate 22,700 jobs.
Transportation and Servicing
Roads within the industrial / employment areas will require significant upgrades and all
remaining roads outside of the urban area will have to be upgraded to appropriate rural
standards. Full municipal servicing would be required in the industrial / employment
portion of the Pickering Federal Lands. Municipal services should also be extended to
Brougham. The following transportation improvements to the road network are
recommended for Option 1:
• Upgrade to Type A Arterial
o Sideline 26 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Whites Road)
• Upgrade to Type B Arterial
o Seventh Concession Road – York-Durham Line to Brock Road (upgrade
CPKC Rail Crossing)
o Sideline 22 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Peter Matthews Drive)
• Upgrade to Type C Arterial
o North Road – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7
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o Sideline 24 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Sideline 24 south of Highway 7) (new road)
• Upgrade to Collector Road
o Sideline 32 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7
o Sideline 28 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7
o Sideline 20 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Country Lane)
• New Collector Road
o North of Seventh Concession Road between Sideline 28 and Brock Road
Based on Durham Region’s design criteria for industrial land uses (1.04 L/s/ha) for trunk
sewers, Option 1 is expected to generate about 1,144 litres per second of theoretical
trunk flow which exceeds the allocated capacity for the Pickering Federal Lands of 300
litres per second. A planning level cost estimate for the construction and upgrade of the
road network as well as full municipal servicing is about $400 to $450 million for Option
1.
3.1.2 Land Use Option 1 Opportunities and Constraints
Opportunities
• Option 1 is a logical extension of the existing Seaton employment area and
proposes industrial/employment lands adjacent to the Innovation Corridor in
Seaton.
• Additional employment uses in this location can help create a Pickering
employment hub along Highway 407. Also, these employment lands help to
capitalize on previous investments along Highway 407 and planned investments
in the widening of Highway 7.
• Substantial potential for long-term industrial/employment growth.
• Logical expansion of Pickering Innovation Corridor.
• All Greenbelt and Oak Ridges Moraine Lands added to the Rouge National
Urban Park.
• Expansion of Rouge National Urban Park could be used for park uses and/or
ongoing agricultural operations.
• All significant natural heritage features are protected.
• Investment and improvement to agricultural lands and the creation of an
agricultural system is more likely if the lands are owned by farmers or on very
long-term leases.
• Residents may have greater access to a supply of local food that supports the
food value chain and various food production related industries as well as the
economy.
• Existing golf club and motorcycle club will be maintained.
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• Generates the greatest investment ($5.3 billion) and revenues ($347 million one-
time and $25.8 million annually) out of all three options.
Constraints
• Industrial/employment lands north of Seventh Concession Road are likely to be
less desirable due to being further away from major transportation corridors
(Highway 7 and Highway 407).
• Industrial/employment lands in Brougham west of Brock Road are also less
desirable due to the compatibility issues with the existing residential uses within
the hamlet.
• No additional public parks nor recreational spaces are proposed.
• Short-term leases create less incentives for on-farm and agricultural-related
investments.
• Requires the greatest amount of transportation improvements and servicing
infrastructure.
• Water and sanitary sewer capacity will need to be confirmed and planned.
• Does not address residential development Federal Key Theme.
• Agricultural system lands could be purchased by speculators.
• Highest operating costs ($18.2 million) due to the greatest employment/industrial
land area.
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3.1.3 Land Use Option 2
Option 2 consists of the following proposed land areas as shown on Figure 30:
1,405 hectares of agriculture system
(38% of Federal Lands)
810 hectares of industrial/employment
(22% of Federal Lands)
16,700 jobs
470 hectares of Rouge National Urban Park
(including natural heritage features)
(13% of Federal Lands)
30 hectares of public park
(1% of Federal Lands)
1,160 hectares of natural heritage features
(outside of RNUP)
(31% of Federal Lands)
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Figure 30: Land Use Option 2
Rouge National Urban Park Expansion
The RNUP is proposed to be expanded to the east branch of Duffins Creek which
creates a logical boundary to the RNUP. Approximately 470 hectares of land are
proposed to be transferred to the RNUP including the natural heritage features within
that area.
Conservation and Environmental Protection
The Natural Features are based on the Toronto Region Conservation Authority
regulated areas as well as the Natural Areas of the Pickering Official Plan. Option 2
protects 1,160 hectares of significant natural heritage features excluding the natural
heritage features within the proposed Rouge National Urban Park.
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Public Parks and Recreational Spaces
Option 2 contemplates a 20 hectare expansion to the district park at Green River
Sideline 32 and North Road just south of the Greenbelt for a multi-sport field complex.
Option 2 also proposes a 10 hectare future park in the southwest corner of Claremont
within the existing Open Space System – Recreational Areas designation.
The existing Pickering Glen Golf Club and the Oshawa Competition Motorcycle Club
within the Pickering Federal Lands should be maintained.
Agricultural Use
Option 2 proposes a larger privately-owned agricultural system than Option 1 and the
greatest of the three options comprising approximately 1,405 hectares.
Residential Development
No residential development is proposed as part of this option.
Industrial/Employment Development
Option 2 proposes a slightly smaller amount of industrial/employment land than Option
1 extending north from Highway 7 and the Innovation Corridor to Seventh Concession
Road resulting in 810 hectares of land which could generate 16,700 jobs.
Transportation and Servicing
Option 2 requires less transportation improvements and servicing infrastructure than
Option 1 but full municipal servicing would be required within the industrial /
employment portion of the Pickering Federal Lands in conjunction with the proposed
road network upgrades. All remaining roads outside of the urban area will have be
upgraded to appropriate rural standards. Municipal services should also be extended to
Brougham. The following transportation improvements to the road network are
recommended for Option 2:
• Upgrade to Type A Arterial
o Sideline 26 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Whites Road)
• Upgrade to Type B Arterial
o Seventh Concession Road – York-Durham Line to Brock Road (upgrade
CPKC Rail Crossing)
o Sideline 22 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Peter Matthews Drive)
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• Upgrade to Type C Arterial
o North Road – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7
o Sideline 24 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Sideline 24 south of Highway 7) (new road)
• Upgrade to Collector Road
o Sideline 32 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7
o Sideline 28 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7
o Sideline 20 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Country Lane)
Based on Durham Region’s design criteria for industrial land uses (1.04 L/s/ha) for trunk
sewers, Option 2 is expected to generate about 866 litres per second of theoretical
trunk flow which exceeds the allocated capacity for the Pickering Federal Lands of 300
litres per second. A planning level cost estimate for the construction and upgrade of the
road network as well as full municipal servicing is about $350 to $400 million for Option
2.
3.1.4 Land Use Option 2 Opportunities and Constraints
Opportunities
• RNUP expanded to east branch of Duffins Creek.
• Expansion of Rouge National Urban Park could be used for park uses and/or
ongoing agricultural operations.
• All significant natural heritage features are protected in Option 2.
• District Park in Green River expanded to provide additional lands for major
outdoor/indoor recreational uses.
• The proposed future park in Claremont could introduce new public park to serve
the residents of Claremont and the surrounding rural community.
• Significant potential for long-term industrial/employment growth.
• Logical extension of existing Pickering Innovation Corridor.
• Industrial/employment lands limited to south of Seventh Concession Road is
closer to Highways 7 and 407 and the Pickering Innovation Corridor.
• Additional employment uses in this location can help create a Pickering
employment hub along Highway 407. Also, these employment lands help to
capitalize on previous investments along Highway 407 and planned investments
in the widening of Highway 7.
• Allows for industrial/employment growth in other areas of the Region.
• Investment and improvement to the agricultural lands and the creation of an
agricultural system is more likely if the lands are owned by farmers or on very
long-term leases.
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• Residents may have greater access to a supply of local food that supports the
food value chain and various food production related industries as well as the
economy.
Existing golf club and motorcycle club will be maintained.
• Generates more investment ($3.9 billion) and revenues ($255.4 million one-time
and $19 million annually) than Option 3.
Constraints
• Short-term leases create less incentives for on-farm and agricultural-related
investments.
• The proposed industrial/employment between Brougham Road and Brock Road
in Brougham is less desirable due to the potential conflict with existing residential
uses within the hamlet.
• Limited expansion of the Rouge National Urban Park.
• Requires substantial transportation/servicing infrastructure upgrades.
• Water and sanitary sewer capacity will need to be confirmed and planned.
• Does not address residential development Federal Key Theme.
• Agricultural system lands could be purchased by speculators.
• Substantially lower net operating impacts due to less revenues associated with
non-residential development.
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3.1.5 Land Use Option 3
Option 3 consists of the following proposed land areas as shown on Figure 31:
10 hectares of residential
(<1% of Federal Lands)
780 hectares of industrial/employment
(21% of Federal Lands)
16,000 jobs
2,315 hectares of Rouge National Urban Park
(including natural heritage features)
(63% of Federal Lands)
30 hectares of public park
(1% of Federal Lands)
410 hectares of natural heritage features
(outside of RNUP)
(11% of Federal Lands)
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Figure 31: Land Use Option 3
Rouge National Urban Park Expansion
The proposed RNUP is expanded to include all lands north of the proposed
Industrial/Employment Area. However, the existing golf course (Pickering Glen Golf
Club) and the Oshawa Competition Motorcycle Club should be allowed to continue
through long-term leases. The Rouge Natural Urban Park would comprise
approximately 2,315 hectares including natural heritage features.
Conservation and Environmental Protection
The Natural Features are based on the Toronto Region Conservation Authority
regulated areas as well as the Natural Areas of the Pickering Official Plan. Option 3
protects 410 hectares of significant natural heritage features excluding the natural
heritage features within the proposed Rouge National Urban Park expansion.
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Public Parks and Recreational Spaces
Option 3 contemplates a 20 hectare expansion to the district park at the southwest
corner between Sideline 32 and North Road just south of the Greenbelt. Option 3 also
proposes a 10 hectare future park in the southwest corner of Claremont within the
existing Open Space System – Recreational Areas designation.
The existing Pickering Glen Golf Club and the Oshawa Competition Motorcycle Club
within the Pickering Federal Lands should be maintained.
Agricultural Use
No Agricultural System designation is proposed, however, agricultural uses will be
permitted in the Rouge National Urban Park (RNUP). Therefore, no privately-owned
agricultural land would be available.
Residential Development
A small area of residential use (10 ha) is proposed adjacent to the Brougham Hamlet.
The proposed residential uses are located between Brougham Road and Brock Road
and will complement the existing Hamlet Residential area.
Industrial/Employment Development
Option 3 proposes a slightly less amount of industrial/employment land than Option 2
at 780 hectares. The 780 hectares of industrial/employment lands could generate
approximately 16,000 jobs. The industrial/employment lands are proposed to be located
between Highway 7 and Seventh Concession Road except for the areas north of the
large central natural feature east of Sideline 22. The lands will extend from North Road
south of the Greenbelt, east towards Sideline 16 which represents a logical extension of
the existing Seaton employment area. Should these lands be designated
industrial/employment lands, the industrial/employment area should be extended east to
the Greenbelt at Sideline 14 between Seventh Concession Road and Highway 7
(outside of the Pickering Federal Lands) because it represents a logical extension along
the Highway 407 and Highway 7 corridor.
Transportation and Servicing
Option 3 requires less transportation improvements and servicing infrastructure than
Option 1 but full municipal servicing would be required in the industrial / employment
portion of the Pickering Federal Lands in conjunction with the proposed road network
upgrades. Municipal services should also be extended to Brougham. All remaining
roads outside of the urban area will have be upgraded to appropriate rural standards.
As well, the following transportation improvements to the road network are
recommended for Option 3:
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• Upgrade to Type A Arterial
o Sideline 26 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Whites Road)
• Upgrade to Type B Arterial
o Seventh Concession Road – York-Durham Line to Brock Road (upgrade
CPKC Rail Crossing)
o Sideline 22 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Peter Matthews Drive)
• Upgrade to Type C Arterial
o North Road – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7
o Sideline 24 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Sideline 24 south of Highway 7) (new road)
• Upgrade to Collector Road
o Sideline 32 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7
o Sideline 28 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7
o Sideline 20 – Seventh Concession Road to Highway 7 (re-align to connect
with Country Lane)
Based on Durham Region’s design criteria for industrial land uses (1.04 L/s/ha) for trunk
sewers, Option 3 is expected to generate about 915 litres per second of theoretical
trunk flow which exceeds the allocated capacity for the Pickering Federal Lands of 300
litres per second. A planning level cost estimate for the construction and upgrade of the
road network as well as full municipal servicing is about $350 to $400 million for Option
3.
3.1.6 Land Use Option 3 Opportunities and Constraints
Opportunities
• RNUP expanded significantly to include all lands north of the
Industrial/Employment Area.
• Expansion of Rouge National Urban Park could be used for park uses and/or
ongoing agricultural operations.
• All significant natural heritage features are protected.
• District park in Green River expanded to provide additional lands for major
outdoor/indoor recreational uses.
• Proposed park in Green River could provide connections to the Rouge National
Urban Park further west.
• Proposed future park in Claremont could introduce new public park to serve the
residents of Claremont and the surrounding rural community.
• Logical extension of the Pickering Innovation Corridor.
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• Significant potential for long-term industrial/employment growth.
• Additional employment uses in this location can help create a Pickering
employment hub/node along Highway 407. Also, these employment lands help to
capitalize on previous investments along Highway 407 and planned investments
in the widening of Highway 7.
• Existing golf club and motorcycle club will be maintained.
• Generates less investment ($3.7 billion) and revenues ($244.4 million one-time
and $18.2 million annually) than Options 1 and 2.
• Provides for modest residential growth in Brougham to help revitalize the Hamlet.
• Keeps agricultural lands from being purchase by speculators.
Constraints
• Agricultural uses in the RNUP will likely be leased which limits the opportunities
for long-term farm investments and is less likely to create a vibrant agricultural
system on the Pickering Federal Lands.
• Industrial/employment lands limited to south of Seventh Concession Road and
south of the natural area east of Sideline 22 is closer to Highways 7 and 407 as
well as the Pickering Innovation Corridor.
• Requires substantial transportation/servicing infrastructure upgrades.
• Water and sanitary sewer capacity will need to be confirmed and planned.
• Substantially lower net operating impacts due to less revenues associated with
non-residential development.
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4 Engagement Summary
As part of the City’s engagement on the future uses of the Pickering Federal Lands,
meetings to discuss the options were held both virtual and in person with the Project
Steering Committee, the Durham Agricultural Advisory Committee (DAAC), Lakeridge
Health, Northeast Pickering Landowners Group, Region of Durham, Members of
Council, the City’s local MP, and the Mayors of Whitchurch-Stouffville and Uxbridge, the
deputy mayor of Ajax and the Chair of Durham Region. A Public Open House was also
held on April 22, 2026 at City Hall.
Input received from the Steering Committee meeting, focus group/one-on-one meetings,
and the Open House informed the Staff Recommended Land Use Plan and the
recommendations in Section 5 of this Report and provide the basis for input into
Transport Canada’s ongoing engagement.
The following summarizes input received from stakeholders, members of the public,
landowners and elected officials grouped into the different Federal Key Themes
including questions about fiscal impacts:
Rouge National Urban Park Expansion
• Support for the expansion of the RNUP across the entire Pickering Federal
Lands and transfer of Pickering Federal Lands to Parks Canada.
Conservation and Environmental Protection
• Concerns regarding negative impacts to natural heritage features, biodiversity,
and ecological system.
• Preservation of natural features over development, especially in ecologically
significant areas (i.e., wetlands, woodlots, etc.).
• Public concerns with potential flooding downstream.
• Presence of heritage-listed properties.
Public Parks and Recreational Spaces
• Support for expansion of park and recreational spaces for a district park.
• Recognize social and health benefits of a district park.
• Not enough parkland provided due to expansion of RNUP.
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Agricultural
• Support for protecting agricultural uses for food security, local economic
resilience, and long-term sustainability.
• Preference for private land ownership or long-term leases to support farm
investments.
• Concerns with agricultural viability if lands transferred to RNUP with leases.
• Short-term leases limit investment into the lands.
• Existing lessees have also expressed interest in retaining their leases and
potentially expanding their operations.
• Concern for land speculation if lands offered for sale.
Residential Development
• Some support for limited residential development around Brougham.
• Concerns with overdevelopment and burdens on existing infrastructure capacity.
• Not a priority compared to expansion of RNUP, conservation or agricultural uses.
• Interested in long-term protection.
• Concerns with no connection for residential to amenities, grocery stores, transit,
schools, etc.
• Consideration for affordable housing managed by Canada Lands Company.
• Inclusion of lands for long-term care facilities.
Commercial/Industrial Development
• Concerns with over-allocation of employment lands.
• Concerns with impact on natural heritage system and agricultural lands.
• Some support for job creation and strategic location of employment lands near
Highways 407 and 7.
• Industrial/employment lands along Highway 7 are a logical expansion of
employment north of Seaton.
• Opportunity to contribute positively to public health through job creation and
income creation.
• Concerns with employment uses related to distribution/warehousing.
• General support for more job creation in Durham.
• Some emphasized the importance of locating employment along planned
transportation corridors like Highways 407 and 7 to support logistics efficiency.
Transportation/Servicing
• Not a priority for respondents.
• Concerns with lack of infrastructure capacity and the implications of Alto.
• Roads in the Pickering Federal Lands are predominantly owned and managed by
the Federal Government.
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• Concerns over current state of roads and infrastructure.
• Servicing planned for the Pickering Federal Lands do not contemplate
development beyond what would be required for an airport and supporting
employment uses.
• Compensation for Seaton Landowners Group for front-ending infrastructure to
support the previously planned airport.
Fiscal Impacts
• Costs associated with upgrading and maintaining roads within the Pickering
Federal Lands.
• Require fiscal analysis to understand impacts on municipal finance.
• Implications for development charges associated with different Land Use
Options.
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5 Recommendations
We heard through the Public Open House desire for the Pickering Federal Lands to be
transferred in their entirety to Parks Canada for an expansion of the RNUP. An
expansion over these lands to create a much larger RNUP would not generate any
additional employment land or significant economic and fiscal benefits to the City; no
additional City owned public park or recreational spaces; and agricultural lands would
likely be leased which limits the opportunity for long-term farm investments.
Expanding the RNUP could create additional financial burdens for the City due to
additional City services required by the residents of the park and would have a net
negative financial impact to the City since the lands are owned by the Federal
Government. Fees associated with the park development would not go to the City and
no additional municipal revenues are anticipated beyond the $1.1 million the City
currently receives annually as cash-in-lieu property tax payments.
As a result, based on a review of the opportunities and constraints of the three land use
options and stakeholder and public input to those options, the consulting team has
developed a set of recommendations that aims to provide a balance of land uses to
inform Council’s response to the Transport Canada’s engagement on the future uses of
the former Pickering Federal Lands. A graphic representation on those
recommendations is contained in Figure 33 which shows how the various land uses
should be distributed. Further description of these recommendations are provided in text
below.
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Figure 33: Recommended Land Use Plan for the Pickering Federal Lands
The following recommendations consider each of the Federal Key Themes:
• It is recommended that Transport Canada create a land use plan to help define
the priorities for the Pickering Federal Lands over a long-term planning horizon.
The land use plan should take into consideration the recommendations
presented herein and be provided to the public for review and comment.
• All significant natural heritage features should be identified in the field, staked
and appropriate vegetation protection zones applied. These staked natural
heritage features should be transferred to Parks Canada as part of the Rouge
National Urban Park.
• Approximately 20 hectares between Sideline 32 and North Road should be
transferred to the City of Pickering for an expansion of its district park to be used
for major indoor and outdoor recreational facilities and sport amenities to serve
the residents of Pickering.
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• Approximately 10 hectares designated as Open Space System – Recreational
Areas in the Hamlet of Claremont should be transferred to the City of Pickering
for park purposes to serve the residents of Claremont and the surrounding rural
community.
• Don Beer Memorial Park within the Hamlet of Brougham should be transferred to
the City of Pickering to manage, operate, and maintain the existing park.
• Other existing recreational uses such as the Pickering Glen Golf Club and the
Oshawa Competition Motorcycle Club should be given the opportunity to acquire
long-term leases to continue their operations.
• Existing cultural heritage buildings within the Pickering Federal Lands should be
conserved and actively reused to prevent from falling into disrepair.
• The presence of significant archaeological sites within the Pickering Federal
Lands should be further investigated and the appropriate protection provided.
• Transport Canada should work with the Provincial Government to revoke O. Reg.
102/72 to permit the future development of the Pickering Federal Lands.
• The Hamlet of Brougham should be revitalized with residential and commercial
lessees in the Hamlet provided the opportunity to either purchase their leased
properties or enter into long-term leases. A secondary plan should be undertaken
by the City to identify the appropriate residential and commercial land uses to
revitalize the Hamlet and updated zoning put in place. Following completion of
the secondary plan, vacant lots should be sold for purposes set out in the
secondary plan and zoning by-law. The lands between Brougham Road and
Brock Road should be made available for residential development once the
secondary plan is completed.
• Other than residential development in Brougham, significant residential
development is not recommended on the Pickering Federal Lands. If the Federal
Government wants to consider significant housing development, it should be
considered elsewhere in exchange for protecting Pickering Federal Lands for
long-term agricultural and environmental purposes.
• Transport Canada should consider development of an economic corridor along
the north side of Highway 7 as an expansion of the Pickering Innovation Corridor
to the south of Highway 7. A broad range of high employment generating uses
should be considered including industrial, institutional, health care, post-
secondary and ancillary commercial to support employment uses. It is
recommended that the Federal Government through Canada Lands Corporation
be the developer of the lands including front ending the infrastructure required to
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implement the economic corridor and either sell lots or provide long-term leases.
Development of the economic corridor should be phased to ensure other lands
within Pickering designated for employment uses are developed first.
• Transport Canada should explore how to ensure the creation of a vibrant
Agricultural System on the remaining Pickering Federal Lands where farmers are
incentivized to invest in farm improvements, on-farm diversified uses and
agricultural related uses. These lands could be included in an expanded Rouge
National Urban Park provided the Federal Government provides long-term leases
and incentives for farmers to invest in the lands. If the Federal Government plans
to sell the lands to farmers, restrictions on the future use of the lands through an
expanded Greenbelt Plan or land trust to ensure no future conversion or
development pressures that would allow the lands to be removed from the
agricultural system.
• Prior to Transport Canada transferring or selling any of the Pickering Federal
Lands, significant road improvements should be undertaken. These include:
o The Whites Road / Sideline 26 Realignment;
o Country Lane / Sideline 20 Realignment;
o Peter Matthews Drive / Sideline 22 Realignment;
o Upgrading and paving of Seventh Concession to a Type B arterial Road
standard;
o Upgrading and paving of Sideline 20, Sideline 26 and Sideline 22 to an
appropriate arterial Road standard; and
o Upgrading all remaining rural roads including those within agricultural
areas to an appropriate standard that can accommodate agricultural
machinery traffic.
• Transport Canda should accommodate the widening of Highway 7 (between
Ressor Road in Markham to Brock Road in Pickering) subject to the findings of
the environmental assessment.
• Transport Canada should make lands available for a future (potential) station for
the Alto High-Speed Rail.
• Once the roads are upgraded and improved, consideration should be given to
transfer federally owned and maintained roads to City of Pickering.
• Transport Canada should work with Durham Region to coordinate water and
wastewater servicing capacity and requirements for the economic corridor to
support the proposed land uses. There remains an outstanding financial
reimbursement due to the Region and Seaton Landowners for oversizing of
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water and sanitary sewer infrastructure to support development of the Pickering
Federal Lands.
Once Pickering Council confirms the appropriate recommendations, this report should
be forwarded to Transport Canada and the Federal Government as the City’s formal
input into this process and the future development of the Pickering Federal Lands.
1547 BLOOR STREET WESTTORONTO, ONM6P 1A5
* info@sglplanning.ca T (416) 923-6630Planning& Design Inc.
Pickering Federal Lands Land Use Review & Economic Analysis May 2026
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Appendix A
Pickering Federal Lands
Fiscal Impact Analysis
Prepared By:
Parcel Economics Inc
May 14, 2026
1
Pickering Federal Lands
Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis
May 14, 2026
Parcel
2
PREPARED FOR:
The Corporation of the City of Pickering
One The Esplanade, Pickering, ON, L1V 6K7
PREPARED BY:
Parcel Economics Inc.
250 University Avenue, #217, Toronto, Ontario, M5H 3E5
info@parceleconomics.com
416-869-8264
May 14, 2026
2025-0179
This document is available in alternative formats upon request.
Cover Image: Google Earth
3
Table of Contents
1.0 Economic & Fiscal Impact Modelling ......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Approach ............................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 One-Time Investment ........................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Jobs ........................................................................................................................................................ 3
1.4 Revenues ............................................................................................................................................... 4
1.5 Costs ....................................................................................................................................................... 7
1.6 Net Municipal Operating Impact ...................................................................................................... 11
1.7 Summary .............................................................................................................................................. 12
Appendix A: Fiscal Impact Modelling: Land Use Option 1 .......................................................................... 14
Appendix B: Fiscal Impact Modelling: Land Use Option 2 .......................................................................... 23
Appendix C: Fiscal Impact Modelling: Land Use Option 3 .......................................................................... 32
4
Table of Figures
Figure 1.1 Land Use Options Construction Cost Investments ........................................................................ 3
Figure 1.2 Land Use Options Job Estimates ..................................................................................................... 4
Figure 1.3 Assessed Values of Precedent Industrial Developments .............................................................. 5
Figure 1.4 Land Use Options One-Time & Ongoing Revenues ..................................................................... 6
Figure 1.5 Land Use Options High-Level Municipal Infrastructure Summary ............................................... 7
Figure 1.6 Municipal Operating Costs Growth Assumptions ......................................................................... 9
Figure 1.7 On-Site Operating & Maintenance Costs per Unit ...................................................................... 10
Figure 1.8 Land Use Options Costs .................................................................................................................. 11
Figure 1.9 Land Use Options Net Municipal Operating Impact ................................................................... 12
Figure 1.10 Economic Impact of Land Use Options Summary ..................................................................... 13
Figure A. 1 Development Charge Revenue .................................................................................................... 15
Figure A. 2 Building Permit Revenue (per sq. m.) ........................................................................................... 15
Figure A. 3 Non-Tax Revenue Assumptions per Resident & Employee ...................................................... 16
Figure A. 4 Non-Tax Cost Assumptions per Resident & Employee .............................................................. 18
Figure A. 5 Property Tax Revenues ................................................................................................................... 20
Figure A. 6 Non-Property Tax Revenues per Employee ................................................................................ 20
Figure A. 7 Municipal-Wide Operating Costs, per Employee ...................................................................... 21
Figure A. 8 Site-Specific Operating Costs ....................................................................................................... 21
Figure A. 9 Replacement Costs & Estimated Useful Life ............................................................................... 22
Figure B. 1 Development Charge Revenue ..................................................................................................... 24
Figure B. 2 Building Permit Revenue (per sq. m.) ........................................................................................... 24
Figure B. 3 Non-Tax Revenue Assumptions per Resident & Employee ....................................................... 25
Figure B. 4 Non-Tax Cost Assumptions per Resident & Employee .............................................................. 27
Figure B. 5 Property Tax Revenues ................................................................................................................... 29
Figure B. 6 Non-Property Tax Revenues per Employee ................................................................................ 29
Figure B. 7 Municipal-Wide Operating Costs, per Employee ....................................................................... 30
Figure B. 8 Site-Specific Operating Costs ....................................................................................................... 30
Figure B. 9 Replacement Costs & Estimated Useful Life ................................................................................ 31
Figure C. 1 Development Charge Revenue .................................................................................................... 33
Figure C. 2 Building Permit Revenue (per sq. m.) ........................................................................................... 33
Figure C. 3 Non-Tax Revenue Assumptions per Resident & Employee ...................................................... 34
Figure C. 4 Non-Tax Cost Assumptions per Resident & Employee ............................................................. 36
Figure C. 5 Property Tax Revenues .................................................................................................................. 38
5
Figure C. 6 Non-Property Tax Revenues per Employee ................................................................................ 38
Figure C. 7 Municipal-Wide Operating Costs, per Employee ...................................................................... 39
Figure C. 8 Site-Specific Operating Costs ....................................................................................................... 39
Figure C. 9 Replacement Costs & Estimated Useful Life ............................................................................... 40
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 1
1.0
Economic & Fiscal Impact Modelling
1.1 Approach
We have quantified the following indicators to estimate the economic impact of the new industrial/employment
development proposed in three land use options 1, 2 and 3. The economic and fiscal impacts modelled in this
analysis include:
• One-time investment (i.e., hard and soft construction costs)
• Jobs
• City of Pickering Revenues
o Development Charges (one-time)
o Building Permit Fees (one-time)
o Annual Property Taxes (ongoing)
o Other Non-Tax Revenues (i.e., user fees, fines and other revenues) (ongoing)
• City of Pickering Costs
o Required Municipal Capital Projects (one-time)
o Operational Costs to Service New Development (i.e., road maintenance, provision of emergency
services, etc.) (ongoing)
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 2
o Incremental Operating Costs (i.e., operating costs associated with new roads / stormwater located
within the Pickering Federal Lands) (ongoing)
o Lifecycle Capital Costs (i.e., lifecycle costs to replace the incremental capital assets that are directly
related to the proposed development)
It should be noted that all estimated revenues and expenses are stated in 2025 dollars and are assessed at the full
build-out of the land use options.
Caveats & Limitations
We note the limitations of trying to quantify hypothetical economic impact more than 25 years into the
future. It is almost certain that inputs used in this analysis will change between now and 2051. As such,
the numbers presented herein are best interpreted as a comparison of the relative impact of each land
use option based on current assumptions rather than a predictor of actual investment, jobs, and taxes.
We also note the number presented herein represents net new investment, jobs, revenues, and costs
associated with employment land designations. We do not anticipate additional benefit to the City of
Pickering from agricultural or Rouge National Urban Park (“RNUP”) designations since these represent
“status quo” use of the Pickering Federal Lands.
1.2 One-Time Investment
We have estimated the one-time construction-related investments required to realize employment land
development for each land use option based on:
• The Altus Construction Cost Guide (2025) to estimate hard costs (e.g., costs directly related to the
construction of new buildings, including material and labour costs), specifically assuming median costs for
warehouse construction in the GTA ($130 per square foot/); and,
• A high-level estimate of anticipated soft costs (e.g., costs indirectly related to construction and the
preliminary planning / design / approvals stages of development, including architectural and engineering
fees, consultant fees, government charges, etc.), assumed to be 30% of total development costs.
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 3
Based on this assessment, we estimate that the land use options could result in a one-time investment ranging from
$3.7 billion to $5.3 billion.
Figure 1.1
Land Use Options Construction Cost Investments
Source: Parcel, based on land use options prepared by SGL and 2025 Altus Construction Cost Guide.
1.3 Jobs
The number of potential jobs generated by the different land use options assume 116 square metres per job per
the Durham DC Background report.
Based on this assessment, we estimate the land use option 1 to 3 could accommodate between 16,000 and
22,700 full-time equivalent (“FTE”) employment-related jobs. It is difficult to predict what, if any, additional
agricultural jobs would be created within expanded agricultural uses or the RNUP.
Land Use
Option 1
Land Use
Option 2
Land Use
Option 3
Employment Land 1,100 ha 810 ha 776 ha
Employment Gross Floor Area 2.6M SM 1.9M SM 1.9M SM
Investment (Construction Costs)$5.3 Billion $3.9 Billion $3.7 Billion
Hard Costs $3.7 Billion $2.7 Billion $2.6 Billion
Soft Costs $1.6 Billion $1.2 Billion $1.1 Billion
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 4
Figure 1.2
Land Use Options Job Estimates
Source: Parcel, based on land use options prepared by SGL and Durham DC Background study.
1.4 Revenues
One-Time Revenue
Development of the Pickering Federal Lands will result in one-time revenues for the City of Pickering in the form of
development charges and building permits.
Based on current development charges1, full development of the Pickering Federal Lands is estimated to generate
between $212.6M and $301.9M in development charges. In land use options 1 to 3, 70% of development
charges are allocated for transportation services based on current development charge rates in the City. It is
important to note that these estimates are based on current development charge rates. If new capital infrastructure
projects are added to the capital program in future development charge by-laws, it could result in higher
development charge rates, which would result in additional development charge revenue for the City to fund
growth-related infrastructure costs.
Based on current building permit rates2, full development of the Pickering Federal Lands is estimated to generate
between $31.8M and $45.1M in building permit fees.
1 $114.42 per square metre based on City-wide development charges effective July 1, 2025 to June 30, 2026.
2 $17.10 per square metre based on Mercantile Occupancies “E” Classification (BPE1) single storey, effective January 6, 2026.
Land Use
Option 1
Land Use
Option 2
Land Use
Option 3
Employment Land 1,100 ha 810 ha 776 ha
Employment Gross Floor Area 2.6M SM 1.9M SM 1.9M SM
Jobs 22,700 FTE 16,700 FTE 16,000 FTE
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 5
Ongoing (Operating) Revenue
Development of the Pickering Federal Lands will also result in the collection of ongoing revenues for the City of
Pickering in the form of property tax revenue and other non-tax revenue (e.g., user fees, services charges, fines,
penalties, etc.).
Property Taxes
Property tax revenues are based on 2025 City of Pickering tax rates3 and an estimated assessment value4 of $1,135
per square metre, which represents the weighted average of MPAC assessment values of nearby industrial
developments that could act as precedents for the type of employment development envisioned on the Pickering
Federal Lands (Figure 1.3).
Figure 1.3
Assessed Values of Precedent Industrial Developments
Source: Parcel, based on MPAC data.
Based on this assessment, we estimate total property tax revenue from the build-out of the lands could range from
$16.7M to $23.7M for land use options 1 to 3. We note these numbers are annual amounts based on full build-
out of the Pickering Federal Lands and 2025 tax rates. Actual tax revenues will vary as tax rates change up to and
including the 2051 to 2071 development period contemplated and any phased development of the lands (i.e.,
likely to be built out over many years).
3 0.00789916 for industrial uses.
4 January 1, 2016 assessment values per current Assessment Act freeze. Property taxes may be higher once taxation based on reassessment
values is instated.
Source Address
Building
Size sq. m.
Estimated
Assessed
Value
Assessed
Value Per
sq. m.
MPAC 2570 Tillings Road 2,937 $4,355,000 $1,483
MPAC 1055 Flagship Way 21,044 $18,304,000 $870
MPAC 1155 Kubota Dr 46,452 $48,620,000 $1,047
Industrial/Employment - Average $1,135
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 6
Non-Property Tax Revenues
Non-property tax revenues are based on the 2024 Financial Information Return (“FIR”) filed by the City of Pickering
with the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (“MMAH”). Non-tax revenues are summarized by category (e.g.,
payments in lieu of taxes, grants, fines, penalties, etc.). Growth in non-tax revenue is based on Parcel assumptions
for the portion of non-tax revenue that could increase in proportion to proposed employment growth on the
Pickering Federal Lands. Generally speaking, we have assumed new jobs on the Pickering Federal Lands will
generate the same user fees per employee as existing jobs in Pickering.
In total, non-property tax revenues range from $1.5M to $2.2M. These revenues are nominal on account of user
fees and services charges being predominantly paid for by residents, not employees (e.g., a Pickering resident is
more likely to use a recreation centre than someone who only works in Pickering).
Combined, land use options for the Pickering Federal Lands will result in ongoing annual revenues for the City of
Pickering ranging from $18.2M to $25.8M, assuming no change to property taxes or non-property tax revenue
rates.
Figure 1.4
Land Use Options One-Time & Ongoing Revenues
Source: Parcel, based on land use options prepared by SGL and current City of Pickering fees and taxes.
Land Use
Option 1
Land Use
Option 2
Land Use
Option 3
Employment Land 1,100 ha 810 ha 776 ha
Employment Gross Floor Area 2.6M SM 1.9M SM 1.9M SM
One-Time Revenue $347.0M $255.4M $244.4M
Development Charges $301.9M $222.2M $212.6M
Building Permits $45.1M $33.2M $31.8M
Ongoing (Operating) Revenue $25.8M $19.0M $18.2M
Property Tax $23.7M $17.4M $16.7M
Non-Property Tax $2.2M $1.6M $1.5M
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 7
1.5 Costs
Infrastructure
A high-level summary of the municipal infrastructure5 associated with the proposed land use options 1 to 3 is
provided in Figure 1.5 below, including the quantum of roadways and stormwater mains that must be constructed,
operated, maintained, and eventually replaced by the City of Pickering to service land use options 1 to 3, as
proposed. It is assumed that capital costs for new infrastructure are funded through development charges. If
subsequent changes are made to the existing land use or concept plans, the estimate will need to be refined
accordingly.
Given the land use concepts primarily contemplate development via employment uses, an estimate of community
infrastructure (e.g., recreation centres, libraries, fire halls, etc.) has not been included, except for the parks
contemplated in land use options 1 to 3.
Figure 1.5
Land Use Options High-Level Municipal Infrastructure Summary
Source: Parcel based on information provided by Dillon Consulting Ltd. This provides a high-level summary of infrastructure on the subject lands
only.
5 Water and wastewater infrastructure are the responsibility of Durham Region and have been excluded from this analysis.
Land Use
Option 1
Land Use
Option 2
Land Use
Option 3
Infrastructure
Roadways 89.0 lane km 74.0 lane km 74.0 lane km
Urban Storm Sewer 40.1 lane km 32.6 lane km 32.6 lane km
Parks 8 ha 30 ha 30 ha
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 8
Municipal Operating Costs
To estimate ongoing operational costs that could be incurred by the City due to the development of the Pickering
Federal Lands, we have estimated total costs affiliated with municipal-wide operation, which have been estimated
on a per resident and per employee basis and operating expenditures taken from Schedule 40 in the FIR.
For this analysis, we have deducted interest on long-term debt, external transfers and amortization from total
expenditures to arrive at net operating expenditures. Debt charges have been removed because these charges are
for “sunk” investments and are unaffected by growth. Similarly, external transfers are not directly linked to the
services that will be provided on the Pickering Federal Lands. For amortization, this reflects the depreciation of
historical costs and have been calculated separately as life-cycle replacement costs elsewhere in this analysis. These
adjusted operating expenditures have then been allocated between residential and non-residential sectors based
on existing population and employment.
After allocating adjusted operating expenditures between the residential and non-residential sectors, we have
estimated the degree to which adjusted operating expenditures will change with additional growth, by applying a
“growth-related” factor. In some cases, this growth-related factor recognizes that there would be proportionate
increases in operating costs relative to the operating expenditures being incurred by the City to provide services to
existing residents and employees (i.e. a 100% growth factor), while in other cases a small allowance is made for
efficiencies and economies of scale. There are some services, such as general government, planning and
development and solid waste collection where costs will likely grow at a slower pace than population or
employment growth, as there are greater opportunities for economies of scale. The following table summarizes the
various growth-related factors assigned in our analysis.
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 9
Figure 1.6
Municipal Operating Costs Growth Assumptions
Growth-Related Factor Rationale
50% Service areas where there are assumed to be significant economies of scale, as
additional community infrastructure is not anticipated to accommodate new growth.
75% There are assumed to be some economies of scale through more efficient use of
existing infrastructure.
100%
Where new community infrastructure is proposed within the Pickering Federal Lands
and not estimated separately through site-specific operating costs, there are
anticipated to be a proportionate increase in per capita operating costs.
Source: Parcel.
In total, non-residential operating costs are estimated to be between $7.6M and $10.8M, depending on the land
use option.
Annual Operating Costs for New Site-Specific
Infrastructure
This analysis also includes the costs of operating and maintaining infrastructure that is internal to the Pickering
Federal Lands, including infrastructure such as roads and water distribution.
For purposes of this analysis, operating and maintenance costs from the 2024 FIR for Paved Roads, Winter Control
Costs, Urban Storm Sewer System, and Parks have been used. The operating costs were then divided by the
quantity of infrastructure maintained by the municipality currently to determine the operating costs per unit. These
annual per rate units have then been applied to the infrastructure anticipated as part of the Pickering Federal Lands,
with estimates summarized in Figure 1.7.
Operating costs are estimated to be between approximately $0.8M and $1.6M per year depending on full build-
out of the land use options.
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 10
Figure 1.7
On-Site Operating & Maintenance Costs per Unit
Source: Parcel based on City of Pickering’s 2024 Financial Information Return. Operating costs include: Salaries, Wages and Employee Benefits,
Materials, Contracted Services, Rents and Financial Expenses and Transfers.
Capital Lifecycle Replacement Costs for Site-Specific
Infrastructure
In addition to annual operating costs associated with new site-specific infrastructure, our analysis also includes
lifecycle capital costs to replace infrastructure at the end of its estimated useful life. Replacement costs per unit and
the estimated useful life of various infrastructure are based on information included in the City of Pickering’s Asset
Management Plan 2025.
As phasing of development of the Pickering Federal Lands is not currently known, we have calculated total lifecycle
replacement costs assuming all infrastructure will be developed and conveyed at the same time. These annual
lifecycle replacement costs are estimated to be between approximately $5.8M and $6.6M.
Operating Costs
(Excludes Amortization
and Long-Term Debt)
Cost Per Unit
(2024 dollars)
Cost Per Unit
(2025 dollars)
Paved Roads $2,458,941 793 Paved Lane KM $3,101 $3,163
Winter Control - Roads $895,766 984 Lane KM Maintained in Winter $910 $929
Urban Storm Sewer System $2,043,295 698.0 KM of Urban Drainage System $2,927 $2,986
Parks $6,081,500 161.1 Ha of Parkland $37,749 $38,504
Units
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 11
Figure 1.8
Land Use Options Costs
Source: Parcel, based on land use options prepared by SGL, infrastructure estimates prepared by Dillon Consulting Ltd., City of Pickering
Financial Information Return, and City of Pickering Asset Management Plan.
1.6 Net Municipal Operating Impact
To estimate the net operating impact associated with the build-out of the Pickering Federal Lands, Parcel has
compared forecast municipal revenues that could be generated via development against estimated operating costs
that could be incurred by the City of Pickering.
Based on estimated revenues and operating costs, the land use options 1 to 3 are anticipated to have a net positive
financial benefit to the City of Pickering ranging from $3.3M to $7.6M. This is largely related to significant
revenues compared to operating costs associated with non-residential development.
Land Use
Option 1
Land Use
Option 2
Land Use
Option 3
Employment Land 1,100 ha 810 ha 776 ha
Employment Gross Floor Area 2.6M SM 1.9M SM 1.9M SM
Ongoing (Operating) Costs $18.2M $15.3M $14.9M
Non-Residential Operating Costs $10.8M $7.9M $7.6M
Site Specific Infrastructure Operating Costs $0.8M $1.6M $1.6M
Site Specific Lifecycle Replacement Costs $6.6M $5.8M $5.8M
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 12
Figure 1.9
Land Use Options Net Municipal Operating Impact
Source: Parcel. Net operating impact totals may not add due to rounding.
1.7 Summary
Overall, land use option 1 generates the greatest investment, jobs, and revenues, followed by land use option 2
and land use option 3. However, we note Option 1 outcomes assume the Pickering Federal Lands absorb all
employment land demand for Durham Region post-2051. Some of this demand is likely to be accommodated in
other Durham Region municipalities.
Land Use
Option 1
Land Use
Option 2
Land Use
Option 3
Employment Land 1,100 ha 810 ha 776 ha
Employment Gross Floor Area 2.6M SM 1.9M SM 1.9M SM
One-Time Revenue $347.0M $255.4M $244.4M
Ongoing (Operating) Revenue $25.8M $19.0M $18.2M
Ongoing (Operating) Costs $18.2M $15.3M $14.9M
Net Operating Impact $7.6M $3.8M $3.3M
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 13
Figure 1.10
Economic Impact of Land Use Options Summary
Source: Parcel.
Land Use
Option 1
Land Use
Option 2
Land Use
Option 3
Employment Land 1,100 ha 810 ha 776 ha
Employment Gross Floor Area 2.6M SM 1.9M SM 1.9M SM
Investment (Construction Costs)$5.3 Billion $3.9 Billion $3.7 Billion
Hard Costs $3.7 Billion $2.7 Billion $2.6 Billion
Soft Costs $1.6 Billion $1.2 Billion $1.1 Billion
Jobs 22,700 FTE 16,700 FTE 16,000 FTE
One-Time Revenue $347.0M $255.4M $244.4M
Development Charges $301.9M $222.2M $212.6M
Building Permits $45.1M $33.2M $31.8M
Ongoing (Operating) Revenue $25.8M $19.0M $18.2M
Property Tax $23.7M $17.4M $16.7M
Non-Property Tax $2.2M $1.6M $1.5M
Ongoing (Operating) Costs $18.2M $15.3M $14.9M
Non-Residential Operating Costs $10.8M $7.9M $7.6M
Site Specific Infrastructure Operating Costs $0.8M $1.6M $1.6M
Site Specific Lifecycle Replacement Costs $6.6M $5.8M $5.8M
Net Operating Impact $7.6M $3.8M $3.3M
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 14
Appendix A:
Fiscal Impact Modelling:
Land Use Option 1
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 15
One-Time Revenues
Figure A. 1
Development Charge Revenue
Figure A. 2
Building Permit Revenue (per sq. m.)
Development Charges Revenue 2025
Industrial/Employment $301,892,000
Total Development Charge Revenue $301,892,000
2025
Industrial/Employment $45,117,476
TOTAL - Fee Per sq. m.$45,117,476
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 16
Non-Tax Revenues & Cost Assumptions
Figure A. 3
Non-Tax Revenue Assumptions per Resident & Employee
2024 Non-Tax Revenue Residential Share Non-Residential Share Growth Share
2024 Non-Tax Revenue Per Capita
2025 Non-Tax Revenue Per Capita
2024 Non-Tax Revenue Per Employee
2025 Non-Tax Revenue Per Employee
User Fees and Service Charges
General government $1,228,049 78%22%100%$8.11 $8.27 $8.11 $8.27
Protection servicesFire $57,009 78%22%100%$0.38 $0.38 $0.38 $0.38Police $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Court Security $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Prisoner Transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Conservation authority $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Protective inspection and control $4,351,043 78%22%100%$28.73 $29.31 $28.73 $29.31Building permit and inspection services $47,174 78%22%100%$0.31 $0.32 $0.31 $0.32Emergency measures $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Provincial Offences Act (POA) $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Protection services $4,455,226 $30.01 $30.01
Transportation servicesRoads - Paved $221,277 78%22%100%$1.46 $1.49 $1.46 $1.49
Roads - Unpaved $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Roads - Bridges and Culverts $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Roads - Traffic Operations & Roadside $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Winter Control - Except sidewalks, Parking Lots $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Winter Control - Sidewalks, Parking Lots Only $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Transit - Conventional $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Transit - Disabled & special needs $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Parking $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Street lighting $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Air transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$8,848 78%22%100%$0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06Sub-Total - Transportation services $230,125 $1.55 $1.55
Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater
Urban storm sewer system $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Rural storm sewer system $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Solid waste collection $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Solid waste disposal $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Waste diversion $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater $0 $0.00 $0.00
Health services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Public health services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hospitals $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Ambulance services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Ambulance dispatch $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Cemeteries $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Health services $0 $0.00 $0.00
Social and family servicesGeneral assistance $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Assistance to aged persons $86,540 100%0%100%$0.73 $0.75 $0.00 $0.00Child care $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Social and family services $86,540 $0.75 $0.00
Social HousingPublic Housing $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Non - Profit/Cooperative Housing $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Rent Supplement Programs $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Social Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00
Recreation and cultural servicesParks $71,379 95%5%100%$0.57 $0.58 $0.11 $0.11
Recreation programs $2,997,345 95%5%100%$24.05 $24.54 $4.53 $4.62
Recreation facilities - Golf Course, Marina, Ski Hill $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Recreation facilities - All Other $4,291,567 95%5%100%$34.44 $35.13 $6.49 $6.62Libraries $54,775 95%5%100%$0.44 $0.45 $0.08 $0.08Museums $159,059 95%5%100%$1.28 $1.30 $0.24 $0.25Cultural services $15,307 95%5%100%$0.12 $0.13 $0.02 $0.02Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Recreation and cultural services $7,589,432 $62.12 $11.71
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 17
2024 Non-Tax
Revenue Residential Share
Non-Residential
Share Growth Share
2024 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Capita
2025 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Capita
2024 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Employee
2025 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Employee
Planning and developmentPlanning and zoning $2,001,834 78%22%100%$13.22 $13.48 $13.22 $13.48Commercial and industrial $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Residential development $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Agriculture and reforestation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Tile drainage/shoreline assistance $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Planning and development $2,001,834 $13.48 $13.48
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - User Fees and Service Charges $15,591,206 $116.18 $65.02
Licences, permits, rents, etcTrailer revenue and permits $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Licences and permits $1,293,718 78%22%100%$8.54 $8.71 $8.54 $8.71Rents, concessions and franchises $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Royalties $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Green Energy $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Licences, permits, rents, etc $5,706,206 $8.71 $8.71
Fines and penalties
Provincial Offences Act (POA) Municipality which administers POA only $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other fines $1,704,191 78%22%100%$11.25 $11.48 $11.25 $11.48Penalties and interest on taxes $3,540,621 90%10%100%$26.92 $27.46 $10.71 $10.92Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Fines and penalties $5,244,812 $38.94 $22.40
Other revenue
Investment income $7,090,442 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Interest earned on reserves and reserve funds $2,561,719 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Gain/Loss on sale of land & capital assets -$69,200 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Deferred revenue earned (Development Charges) (SLC 60 1025 01 + SLC 60 1026 01) $8,775,167 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Deferred revenue earned (Recreational land (The Planning Act)) (SLC 60 1032 01 + SLC 60 1035 01) $985,196 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other Deferred revenue earned $226,644 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Donations $78,296 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Donated Tangible Capital Assets (SLC 53 0610 01) $935,996 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sale of publications, equipment, etc $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Contributions from non-consolidated entities $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other Revenues from Government Business Enterprise (ie Dividends, etc) $1,035,350 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Gaming and Casino Revenues $17,451,454 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $2,493,788 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $46,200 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $1,895,408 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $81,278 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Other revenue $43,587,738 $0.00 $0.00
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 18
Figure A. 4
Non-Tax Cost Assumptions per Resident & Employee
Total Expenses
(Excluding Long-
Term Debt &
Amortization)
Residential
Share
Non-
Residential
Share
Estimated
Growth
Impact
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
General government
Governance $2,089,346 78%22%50%$6.90 $7.04 $6.90 $7.04Corporate Management $9,510,050 78%22%50%$31.40 $32.03 $31.40 $32.03
Program Support $20,468,430 78%22%50%$67.58 $68.93 $67.58 $68.93Sub-Total - General government $32,067,826 $108.00 $108.00
Protection services
Fire $24,305,091 78%22%100%$160.50 $163.71 $160.50 $163.71
Police $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Court Security $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Prisoner Transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Conservation authority $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Protective inspection and control $8,778,907 78%22%100%$57.97 $59.13 $57.97 $59.13
Building permit and inspection services $2,946,356 78%22%75%$14.59 $14.88 $14.59 $14.88
Emergency measures $185,704 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Provincial Offences Act (POA) $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Protection services $36,216,058 $237.72 $237.72
Transportation services
Roads - Paved $2,183,471 78%22%50%$7.21 $7.35 $7.21 $7.35Roads - Unpaved $1,230,886 78%22%50%$4.06 $4.15 $4.06 $4.15
Roads - Bridges and Culverts $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Roads - Traffic Operations & Roadside $2,768,211 78%22%50%$9.14 $9.32 $9.14 $9.32
Winter Control - Except sidewalks, Parking Lots $895,766 78%22%50%$2.96 $3.02 $2.96 $3.02
Winter Control - Sidewalks, Parking Lots Only $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Transit - Conventional $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Transit - Disabled & special needs $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Parking $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Street lighting $879,337 78%22%50%$2.90 $2.96 $2.90 $2.96Air transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $4,856,049 78%22%100%$32.07 $32.71 $32.07 $32.71Sub-Total - Transportation services $12,813,720 $59.51 $59.51
Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater
Urban storm sewer system $493,314 78%22%50%$1.63 $1.66 $1.63 $1.66Rural storm sewer system $1,542,475 78%22%50%$5.09 $5.19 $5.09 $5.19
Solid waste collection $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Solid waste disposal $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Waste diversion $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater $2,035,789 $6.86 $6.86
Health services
Public health services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Hospitals $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Ambulance services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Ambulance dispatch $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Cemeteries $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Health services $0 $0.00 $0.00
Per Capita Per Employee
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 19
Total Expenses
(Excluding Long-
Term Debt &
Amortization)
Residential
Share
Non-
Residential
Share
Estimated
Growth
Impact
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
Social and family services
General assistance $456,102 100%100%$3.85 $3.93 $0.00 $0.00Assistance to aged persons $640,576 100%100%$5.41 $5.52 $0.00 $0.00
Child care $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Social and family services $1,096,678 $9.45 $0.00
Social HousingPublic Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Non-Profit/Cooperative Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Rent Supplement Programs $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Social Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00
Recreation and cultural servicesParks $6,063,133 95%5%75%$36.49 $37.22 $6.88 $7.01
Recreation programs $6,966,691 95%5%75%$41.93 $42.77 $7.90 $8.06Rec Fac - Golf Crs, Marina, Ski Hill $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Rec Fac - All Other $10,326,397 95%5%75%$62.15 $63.40 $11.71 $11.95Libraries $6,332,529 95%5%75%$38.11 $38.88 $7.18 $7.33
Museums $1,777,974 95%5%75%$10.70 $10.92 $2.02 $2.06Cultural services $876 95%5%75%$0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Recreation and cultural services $31,467,600 $193.19 $36.41
Planning and development
Planning and zoning $5,028,479 78%22%75%$24.90 $25.40 $24.90 $25.40
Commercial and Industrial $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Residential development $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Agriculture and reforestation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Tile drainage/shoreline assistance $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Planning and development $5,028,479 $25.40 $25.40
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Per Capita Per Employee
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 20
Ongoing Revenue
Figure A. 5
Property Tax Revenues
Figure A. 6
Non-Property Tax Revenues per Employee
2025
Industrial/Employment $23,655,136
TOTAL - Property Tax Revenue $23,655,136
Non-Residential Non-Tax Revenue 2025
User Fees and Service Charges
General government $187,927.06
Protection services $681,778.61
Transportation services $35,215.79
Recreation and cultural services $266,002.02
Planning and development $306,338.58
Other $0.00
Licences, permits, rents, etc $197,976.32
Fines and penalties $508,981.04
Other revenue $0.00
Pickering - Non-Residential Non-Tax Revenue $2,184,219
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 21
Ongoing Costs
Figure A. 7
Municipal-Wide Operating Costs, per Employee
Figure A. 8
Site-Specific Operating Costs
2025
General government $2,453,653
Protection services $5,400,968
Transportation services $1,351,993
Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater $155,767
Recreation and cultural services $827,181
Planning and development $577,127
Other $0
Pickering Non-Residential Town-Wide $10,766,690
2025
Paved Roads $281,000
Winter Control - Roads $83,000
Urban Storm Sewer System $120,000
Parks $308,000
Total $792,000
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 22
Replacement Cost Assumptions
Figure A. 9
Replacement Costs & Estimated Useful Life
Units
Cost Per
Unit
Estimated
Service Life
(Years)
Average Annual Cost
($/Year/Unit)Phase 1 2025Roads
Collector Road metres $3,200 50 $64 89,000 $5,696,000
Units
Cost Per
Unit
Estimated
Service Life
(Years)
Average Annual Cost
($/Year)Phase 1 2025
Stormwater
Storm Mains metres $1,200 72 $17 40,140 $669,000
Maintenace Holes each $9,700 72 $135 630 $84,875
Oil Grit Separators each $129,400 72 $1,797 7 $12,504
Catch Basin and Lead each $4,100 72 $57 1,040 $59,222
Service Connection each $600 72 $8 3,175 $26,458
Units
Cost Per
Unit
Estimated
Service Life
(Years)
Average Annual Cost
($/Year)Phase 1 2025
Parks
Playground Equipment each $78,800 45 $1,751 4 $7,004
Buildings each $190,900 45 $4,242 2 $8,484
Electrical / Lighting each $20,600 45 $458 27 $12,360
Site Furniture each $3,500 45 $78 22 $1,711
Site Structures each $18,200 45 $404 30 $12,133
Subsurface Infrastructure each $14,900 45 $331 8 $2,649
Parking lots and Internal Roads per metre $100 25 $4 2,548 $10,192
Pedestrian Corridors per metre $200 25 $8 4,688 $37,504
TOTAL - SITE SPECIFIC REPLACEMENT COSTS $6,640,000
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 23
Appendix B:
Fiscal Impact Modelling:
Land Use Option 2
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 24
One-Time Revenues
Figure B. 1
Development Charge Revenue
Figure B. 2
Building Permit Revenue (per sq. m.)
2025
Industrial/Employment $222,167,000
Total Development Charge Revenue $222,167,000
2025
Industrial/Employment $33,202,650
TOTAL - Fee Per sq. m.$33,202,650
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 25
Non-Tax Revenues & Cost Assumptions
Figure B. 3
Non-Tax Revenue Assumptions per Resident & Employee
2024 Non-Tax Revenue Residential Share Non-Residential Share Growth Share
2024 Non-Tax Revenue Per Capita
2025 Non-Tax Revenue Per Capita
2024 Non-Tax Revenue Per Employee
2025 Non-Tax Revenue Per Employee
User Fees and Service Charges
General government $1,228,049 78%22%100%$8.11 $8.27 $8.11 $8.27
Protection servicesFire $57,009 78%22%100%$0.38 $0.38 $0.38 $0.38Police $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Court Security $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Prisoner Transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Conservation authority $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Protective inspection and control $4,351,043 78%22%100%$28.73 $29.31 $28.73 $29.31Building permit and inspection services $47,174 78%22%100%$0.31 $0.32 $0.31 $0.32Emergency measures $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Provincial Offences Act (POA) $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Protection services $4,455,226 $30.01 $30.01
Transportation servicesRoads - Paved $221,277 78%22%100%$1.46 $1.49 $1.46 $1.49
Roads - Unpaved $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Roads - Bridges and Culverts $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Roads - Traffic Operations & Roadside $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Winter Control - Except sidewalks, Parking Lots $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Winter Control - Sidewalks, Parking Lots Only $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Transit - Conventional $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Transit - Disabled & special needs $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Parking $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Street lighting $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Air transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$8,848 78%22%100%$0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06Sub-Total - Transportation services $230,125 $1.55 $1.55
Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater
Urban storm sewer system $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Rural storm sewer system $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Solid waste collection $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Solid waste disposal $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Waste diversion $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater $0 $0.00 $0.00
Health services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Public health services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hospitals $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Ambulance services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Ambulance dispatch $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Cemeteries $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Health services $0 $0.00 $0.00
Social and family servicesGeneral assistance $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Assistance to aged persons $86,540 100%0%100%$0.73 $0.75 $0.00 $0.00Child care $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Social and family services $86,540 $0.75 $0.00
Social HousingPublic Housing $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Non - Profit/Cooperative Housing $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Rent Supplement Programs $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Social Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00
Recreation and cultural servicesParks $71,379 95%5%100%$0.57 $0.58 $0.11 $0.11
Recreation programs $2,997,345 95%5%100%$24.05 $24.54 $4.53 $4.62
Recreation facilities - Golf Course, Marina, Ski Hill $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Recreation facilities - All Other $4,291,567 95%5%100%$34.44 $35.13 $6.49 $6.62Libraries $54,775 95%5%100%$0.44 $0.45 $0.08 $0.08Museums $159,059 95%5%100%$1.28 $1.30 $0.24 $0.25Cultural services $15,307 95%5%100%$0.12 $0.13 $0.02 $0.02Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Recreation and cultural services $7,589,432 $62.12 $11.71
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 26
2024 Non-Tax
Revenue Residential Share
Non-Residential
Share Growth Share
2024 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Capita
2025 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Capita
2024 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Employee
2025 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Employee
Planning and developmentPlanning and zoning $2,001,834 78%22%100%$13.22 $13.48 $13.22 $13.48Commercial and industrial $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Residential development $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Agriculture and reforestation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Tile drainage/shoreline assistance $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Planning and development $2,001,834 $13.48 $13.48
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - User Fees and Service Charges $15,591,206 $116.18 $65.02
Licences, permits, rents, etcTrailer revenue and permits $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Licences and permits $1,293,718 78%22%100%$8.54 $8.71 $8.54 $8.71Rents, concessions and franchises $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Royalties $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Green Energy $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Licences, permits, rents, etc $5,706,206 $8.71 $8.71
Fines and penalties
Provincial Offences Act (POA) Municipality which administers POA only $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other fines $1,704,191 78%22%100%$11.25 $11.48 $11.25 $11.48Penalties and interest on taxes $3,540,621 90%10%100%$26.92 $27.46 $10.71 $10.92Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Fines and penalties $5,244,812 $38.94 $22.40
Other revenue
Investment income $7,090,442 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Interest earned on reserves and reserve funds $2,561,719 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Gain/Loss on sale of land & capital assets -$69,200 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Deferred revenue earned (Development Charges) (SLC 60 1025 01 + SLC 60 1026 01) $8,775,167 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Deferred revenue earned (Recreational land (The Planning Act)) (SLC 60 1032 01 + SLC 60 1035 01) $985,196 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other Deferred revenue earned $226,644 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Donations $78,296 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Donated Tangible Capital Assets (SLC 53 0610 01) $935,996 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sale of publications, equipment, etc $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Contributions from non-consolidated entities $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other Revenues from Government Business Enterprise (ie Dividends, etc) $1,035,350 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Gaming and Casino Revenues $17,451,454 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $2,493,788 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $46,200 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $1,895,408 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $81,278 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Other revenue $43,587,738 $0.00 $0.00
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 27
Figure B. 4
Non-Tax Cost Assumptions per Resident & Employee
Total Expenses
(Excluding Long-
Term Debt &
Amortization)
Residential
Share
Non-
Residential
Share
Estimated
Growth
Impact
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
General government
Governance $2,089,346 78%22%50%$6.90 $7.04 $6.90 $7.04Corporate Management $9,510,050 78%22%50%$31.40 $32.03 $31.40 $32.03
Program Support $20,468,430 78%22%50%$67.58 $68.93 $67.58 $68.93Sub-Total - General government $32,067,826 $108.00 $108.00
Protection services
Fire $24,305,091 78%22%100%$160.50 $163.71 $160.50 $163.71
Police $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Court Security $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Prisoner Transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Conservation authority $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Protective inspection and control $8,778,907 78%22%100%$57.97 $59.13 $57.97 $59.13
Building permit and inspection services $2,946,356 78%22%75%$14.59 $14.88 $14.59 $14.88
Emergency measures $185,704 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Provincial Offences Act (POA) $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Protection services $36,216,058 $237.72 $237.72
Transportation services
Roads - Paved $2,183,471 78%22%50%$7.21 $7.35 $7.21 $7.35Roads - Unpaved $1,230,886 78%22%50%$4.06 $4.15 $4.06 $4.15
Roads - Bridges and Culverts $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Roads - Traffic Operations & Roadside $2,768,211 78%22%50%$9.14 $9.32 $9.14 $9.32
Winter Control - Except sidewalks, Parking Lots $895,766 78%22%50%$2.96 $3.02 $2.96 $3.02
Winter Control - Sidewalks, Parking Lots Only $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Transit - Conventional $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Transit - Disabled & special needs $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Parking $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Street lighting $879,337 78%22%50%$2.90 $2.96 $2.90 $2.96Air transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $4,856,049 78%22%100%$32.07 $32.71 $32.07 $32.71Sub-Total - Transportation services $12,813,720 $59.51 $59.51
Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater
Urban storm sewer system $493,314 78%22%50%$1.63 $1.66 $1.63 $1.66Rural storm sewer system $1,542,475 78%22%50%$5.09 $5.19 $5.09 $5.19
Solid waste collection $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Solid waste disposal $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Waste diversion $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater $2,035,789 $6.86 $6.86
Health services
Public health services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Hospitals $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Ambulance services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Ambulance dispatch $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Cemeteries $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Health services $0 $0.00 $0.00
Per Capita Per Employee
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 28
Total Expenses
(Excluding Long-
Term Debt &
Amortization)
Residential
Share
Non-
Residential
Share
Estimated
Growth
Impact
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
Social and family services
General assistance $456,102 100%100%$3.85 $3.93 $0.00 $0.00Assistance to aged persons $640,576 100%100%$5.41 $5.52 $0.00 $0.00
Child care $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Social and family services $1,096,678 $9.45 $0.00
Social HousingPublic Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Non-Profit/Cooperative Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Rent Supplement Programs $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Social Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00
Recreation and cultural servicesParks $6,063,133 95%5%75%$36.49 $37.22 $6.88 $7.01
Recreation programs $6,966,691 95%5%75%$41.93 $42.77 $7.90 $8.06Rec Fac - Golf Crs, Marina, Ski Hill $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Rec Fac - All Other $10,326,397 95%5%75%$62.15 $63.40 $11.71 $11.95Libraries $6,332,529 95%5%75%$38.11 $38.88 $7.18 $7.33
Museums $1,777,974 95%5%75%$10.70 $10.92 $2.02 $2.06Cultural services $876 95%5%75%$0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Recreation and cultural services $31,467,600 $193.19 $36.41
Planning and development
Planning and zoning $5,028,479 78%22%75%$24.90 $25.40 $24.90 $25.40
Commercial and Industrial $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Residential development $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Agriculture and reforestation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Tile drainage/shoreline assistance $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Planning and development $5,028,479 $25.40 $25.40
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Per Capita Per Employee
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 29
Ongoing Revenue
Figure B. 5
Property Tax Revenues
Figure B. 6
Non-Property Tax Revenues per Employee
2025
Industrial/Employment $17,408,181
TOTAL - Property Tax Revenue $17,408,181
Non-Residential Non-Tax Revenue 2025
User Fees and Service Charges
General government $138,298.44
Protection services $501,731.44
Transportation services $25,915.85
Recreation and cultural services $195,755.00
Planning and development $225,439.31
Other $0.00
Licences, permits, rents, etc $145,693.84
Fines and penalties $374,567.04
Other revenue $0.00
Pickering - Non-Residential Non-Tax Revenue $1,607,401
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 30
Ongoing Costs
Figure B. 7
Municipal-Wide Operating Costs, per Employee
Figure B. 8
Site-Specific Operating Costs
2025
General government $1,805,681
Protection services $3,974,656
Transportation services $994,953
Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater $114,632
Recreation and cultural services $608,735
Planning and development $424,717
Other $0
Pickering Non-Residential Town-Wide $7,923,374
2025
Paved Roads $234,000
Winter Control - Roads $69,000
Urban Storm Sewer System $97,000
Parks $1,155,000
Total $1,555,000
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 31
Replacement Cost Assumptions
Figure B. 9
Replacement Costs & Estimated Useful Life
Units
Cost Per
Unit
Estimated
Service Life
(Years)
Average Annual Cost
($/Year/Unit)Phase 1 2025Roads
Collector Road metres $3,200 50 $64 74,000 $4,736,000
Units
Cost Per
Unit
Estimated
Service Life
(Years)
Average Annual Cost
($/Year)Phase 1 2025
Stormwater
Storm mains metres $1,200 72 $17 32,640 $544,000
Maintenance Holes each $9,700 72 $135 510 $68,708
Oil Grit Separators each $129,400 72 $1,797 6 $10,168
Catch Basin and Lead each $4,100 72 $57 845 $48,118
Service Connection each $600 72 $8 2,585 $21,542
Units
Cost Per
Unit
Estimated
Service Life
(Years)
Average Annual Cost
($/Year)Phase 1 2025
Parks
Playground Equipment each $78,800 45 $1,751 16 $28,018
Buildings each $190,900 45 $4,242 6 $25,453
Electrical / Lighting each $20,600 45 $458 102 $46,693
Site Furniture each $3,500 45 $78 81 $6,300
Site Structures each $18,200 45 $404 114 $46,107
Subsurface Infrastructure each $14,900 45 $331 32 $10,596
Parking lots and Internal Roads per metre $100 25 $4 9,557 $38,228
Pedestrian Corridors per metre $200 25 $8 17,581 $140,648
TOTAL - SITE SPECIFIC REPLACEMENT COSTS $5,771,000
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 32
Appendix C:
Fiscal Impact Modelling:
Land Use Option 3
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 33
One-Time Revenues
Figure C. 1
Development Charge Revenue
Figure C. 2
Building Permit Revenue (per sq. m.)
2025
Industrial/Employment $212,600,000
Total Development Charge Revenue $212,600,000
2025
Industrial/Employment $31,772,870
TOTAL - Fee Per sq. m.$31,772,870
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 34
Non-Tax Revenues & Cost Assumptions
Figure C. 3
Non-Tax Revenue Assumptions per Resident & Employee
2024 Non-Tax Revenue Residential Share Non-Residential Share Growth Share
2024 Non-Tax Revenue Per Capita
2025 Non-Tax Revenue Per Capita
2024 Non-Tax Revenue Per Employee
2025 Non-Tax Revenue Per Employee
User Fees and Service Charges
General government $1,228,049 78%22%100%$8.11 $8.27 $8.11 $8.27
Protection servicesFire $57,009 78%22%100%$0.38 $0.38 $0.38 $0.38Police $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Court Security $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Prisoner Transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Conservation authority $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Protective inspection and control $4,351,043 78%22%100%$28.73 $29.31 $28.73 $29.31Building permit and inspection services $47,174 78%22%100%$0.31 $0.32 $0.31 $0.32Emergency measures $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Provincial Offences Act (POA) $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Protection services $4,455,226 $30.01 $30.01
Transportation servicesRoads - Paved $221,277 78%22%100%$1.46 $1.49 $1.46 $1.49
Roads - Unpaved $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Roads - Bridges and Culverts $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Roads - Traffic Operations & Roadside $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Winter Control - Except sidewalks, Parking Lots $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Winter Control - Sidewalks, Parking Lots Only $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Transit - Conventional $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Transit - Disabled & special needs $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Parking $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Street lighting $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Air transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$8,848 78%22%100%$0.06 $0.06 $0.06 $0.06Sub-Total - Transportation services $230,125 $1.55 $1.55
Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater
Urban storm sewer system $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Rural storm sewer system $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Solid waste collection $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Solid waste disposal $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Waste diversion $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater $0 $0.00 $0.00
Health services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Public health services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hospitals $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Ambulance services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Ambulance dispatch $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Cemeteries $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Health services $0 $0.00 $0.00
Social and family servicesGeneral assistance $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Assistance to aged persons $86,540 100%0%100%$0.73 $0.75 $0.00 $0.00Child care $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Social and family services $86,540 $0.75 $0.00
Social HousingPublic Housing $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Non - Profit/Cooperative Housing $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Rent Supplement Programs $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Social Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00
Recreation and cultural servicesParks $71,379 95%5%100%$0.57 $0.58 $0.11 $0.11
Recreation programs $2,997,345 95%5%100%$24.05 $24.54 $4.53 $4.62
Recreation facilities - Golf Course, Marina, Ski Hill $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Recreation facilities - All Other $4,291,567 95%5%100%$34.44 $35.13 $6.49 $6.62Libraries $54,775 95%5%100%$0.44 $0.45 $0.08 $0.08Museums $159,059 95%5%100%$1.28 $1.30 $0.24 $0.25Cultural services $15,307 95%5%100%$0.12 $0.13 $0.02 $0.02Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Recreation and cultural services $7,589,432 $62.12 $11.71
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 35
2024 Non-Tax
Revenue Residential Share
Non-Residential
Share Growth Share
2024 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Capita
2025 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Capita
2024 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Employee
2025 Non-Tax
Revenue Per
Employee
Planning and developmentPlanning and zoning $2,001,834 78%22%100%$13.22 $13.48 $13.22 $13.48Commercial and industrial $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Residential development $0 100%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Agriculture and reforestation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Tile drainage/shoreline assistance $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Planning and development $2,001,834 $13.48 $13.48
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - User Fees and Service Charges $15,591,206 $116.18 $65.02
Licences, permits, rents, etcTrailer revenue and permits $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Licences and permits $1,293,718 78%22%100%$8.54 $8.71 $8.54 $8.71Rents, concessions and franchises $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Royalties $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Green Energy $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Licences, permits, rents, etc $5,706,206 $8.71 $8.71
Fines and penalties
Provincial Offences Act (POA) Municipality which administers POA only $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other fines $1,704,191 78%22%100%$11.25 $11.48 $11.25 $11.48Penalties and interest on taxes $3,540,621 90%10%100%$26.92 $27.46 $10.71 $10.92Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Fines and penalties $5,244,812 $38.94 $22.40
Other revenue
Investment income $7,090,442 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Interest earned on reserves and reserve funds $2,561,719 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Gain/Loss on sale of land & capital assets -$69,200 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Deferred revenue earned (Development Charges) (SLC 60 1025 01 + SLC 60 1026 01) $8,775,167 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Deferred revenue earned (Recreational land (The Planning Act)) (SLC 60 1032 01 + SLC 60 1035 01) $985,196 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other Deferred revenue earned $226,644 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Donations $78,296 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Donated Tangible Capital Assets (SLC 53 0610 01) $935,996 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sale of publications, equipment, etc $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Contributions from non-consolidated entities $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other Revenues from Government Business Enterprise (ie Dividends, etc) $1,035,350 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Gaming and Casino Revenues $17,451,454 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $2,493,788 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $46,200 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $1,895,408 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $81,278 78%22%0%$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Other revenue $43,587,738 $0.00 $0.00
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 36
Figure C. 4
Non-Tax Cost Assumptions per Resident & Employee
Total Expenses
(Excluding Long-
Term Debt &
Amortization)
Residential
Share
Non-
Residential
Share
Estimated
Growth
Impact
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
General government
Governance $2,089,346 78%22%50%$6.90 $7.04 $6.90 $7.04Corporate Management $9,510,050 78%22%50%$31.40 $32.03 $31.40 $32.03
Program Support $20,468,430 78%22%50%$67.58 $68.93 $67.58 $68.93Sub-Total - General government $32,067,826 $108.00 $108.00
Protection services
Fire $24,305,091 78%22%100%$160.50 $163.71 $160.50 $163.71
Police $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Court Security $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Prisoner Transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Conservation authority $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Protective inspection and control $8,778,907 78%22%100%$57.97 $59.13 $57.97 $59.13
Building permit and inspection services $2,946,356 78%22%75%$14.59 $14.88 $14.59 $14.88
Emergency measures $185,704 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Provincial Offences Act (POA) $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Protection services $36,216,058 $237.72 $237.72
Transportation services
Roads - Paved $2,183,471 78%22%50%$7.21 $7.35 $7.21 $7.35Roads - Unpaved $1,230,886 78%22%50%$4.06 $4.15 $4.06 $4.15
Roads - Bridges and Culverts $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Roads - Traffic Operations & Roadside $2,768,211 78%22%50%$9.14 $9.32 $9.14 $9.32
Winter Control - Except sidewalks, Parking Lots $895,766 78%22%50%$2.96 $3.02 $2.96 $3.02
Winter Control - Sidewalks, Parking Lots Only $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Transit - Conventional $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Transit - Disabled & special needs $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Parking $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Street lighting $879,337 78%22%50%$2.90 $2.96 $2.90 $2.96Air transportation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $4,856,049 78%22%100%$32.07 $32.71 $32.07 $32.71Sub-Total - Transportation services $12,813,720 $59.51 $59.51
Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater
Urban storm sewer system $493,314 78%22%50%$1.63 $1.66 $1.63 $1.66Rural storm sewer system $1,542,475 78%22%50%$5.09 $5.19 $5.09 $5.19
Solid waste collection $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Solid waste disposal $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Waste diversion $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater $2,035,789 $6.86 $6.86
Health services
Public health services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Hospitals $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Ambulance services $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Ambulance dispatch $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Cemeteries $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Health services $0 $0.00 $0.00
Per Capita Per Employee
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 37
Total Expenses
(Excluding Long-
Term Debt &
Amortization)
Residential
Share
Non-
Residential
Share
Estimated
Growth
Impact
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
2024
Expenses
2025
Expenses
Social and family services
General assistance $456,102 100%100%$3.85 $3.93 $0.00 $0.00Assistance to aged persons $640,576 100%100%$5.41 $5.52 $0.00 $0.00
Child care $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Other$0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Social and family services $1,096,678 $9.45 $0.00
Social HousingPublic Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Non-Profit/Cooperative Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Rent Supplement Programs $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Social Housing $0 $0.00 $0.00
Recreation and cultural servicesParks $6,063,133 95%5%75%$36.49 $37.22 $6.88 $7.01
Recreation programs $6,966,691 95%5%75%$41.93 $42.77 $7.90 $8.06Rec Fac - Golf Crs, Marina, Ski Hill $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Rec Fac - All Other $10,326,397 95%5%75%$62.15 $63.40 $11.71 $11.95Libraries $6,332,529 95%5%75%$38.11 $38.88 $7.18 $7.33
Museums $1,777,974 95%5%75%$10.70 $10.92 $2.02 $2.06Cultural services $876 95%5%75%$0.01 $0.01 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Sub-Total - Recreation and cultural services $31,467,600 $193.19 $36.41
Planning and development
Planning and zoning $5,028,479 78%22%75%$24.90 $25.40 $24.90 $25.40
Commercial and Industrial $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Residential development $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Agriculture and reforestation $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Tile drainage/shoreline assistance $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00Sub-Total - Planning and development $5,028,479 $25.40 $25.40
Other $0 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Per Capita Per Employee
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 38
Ongoing Revenue
Figure C. 5
Property Tax Revenues
Figure C. 6
Non-Property Tax Revenues per Employee
2025
Industrial/Employment $16,658,547
TOTAL - Property Tax Revenue $16,658,547
Non-Residential Non-Tax Revenue 2025
User Fees and Service Charges
General government $132,343.00
Protection services $480,125.78
Transportation services $24,799.85
Recreation and cultural services $187,325.36
Planning and development $215,731.39
Other $0.00
Licences, permits, rents, etc $139,419.95
Fines and penalties $358,437.35
Other revenue $0.00
Pickering - Non-Residential Non-Tax Revenue $1,538,183
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 39
Ongoing Costs
Figure C. 7
Municipal-Wide Operating Costs, per Employee
Figure C. 8
Site-Specific Operating Costs
2025
General government $1,727,925
Protection services $3,803,499
Transportation services $952,108
Environmental services - Excluding Water and Wastewater $109,695
Recreation and cultural services $582,522
Planning and development $406,428
Other $0
Pickering Non-Residential Town-Wide $7,582,176
2025
Paved Roads $234,000
Winter Control - Roads $69,000
Urban Storm Sewer System $97,000
Parks $1,155,000
Total $1,555,000
Pickering Federal Lands – Economic & Fiscal Impact Analysis 40
Replacement Cost Assumptions
Figure C. 9
Replacement Costs & Estimated Useful Life
Units
Cost Per
Unit
Estimated
Service Life
(Years)
Average Annual Cost
($/Year/Unit)Phase 1 2025Roads
Collector Road metres $3,200 50 $64 74,000 $4,736,000
Units
Cost Per
Unit
Estimated
Service Life
(Years)
Average Annual Cost
($/Year)Phase 1 2025
Stormwater
Storm mains metres $1,200 72 $17 32,640 $544,000
Maintenance Holes each $9,700 72 $135 510 $68,708
Oil Grit Separators each $129,400 72 $1,797 6 $10,168
Catch Basin and Lead each $4,100 72 $57 845 $48,118
Service Connection each $600 72 $8 2,585 $21,542
Units
Cost Per
Unit
Estimated
Service Life
(Years)
Average Annual Cost
($/Year)Phase 1 2025
Parks
Playground Equipment each $78,800 45 $1,751 16 $28,018
Buildings each $190,900 45 $4,242 6 $25,453
Electrical / Lighting each $20,600 45 $458 102 $46,693
Site Furniture each $3,500 45 $78 81 $6,300
Site Structures each $18,200 45 $404 114 $46,107
Subsurface Infrastructure each $14,900 45 $331 32 $10,596
Parking lots and Internal Roads per metre $100 25 $4 9,557 $38,228
Pedestrian Corridors per metre $200 25 $8 17,581 $140,648
TOTAL - SITE SPECIFIC REPLACEMENT COSTS $5,771,000
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