HomeMy WebLinkAboutPLN 16-25Report to
Planning & Development Committee
Report Number: PLN 16-25
Date: June 9, 2025
From: Kyle Bentley
Director, City Development & CBO
Subject: Pickering Official Plan Review
Project Update and Completed Growth Management Strategy
File: D-2000-018
Recommendation:
1.That Report PLN 16-25, regarding the Pickering Official Plan Review, be received;
2.That the City of Pickering Growth Management Strategy Final Report, prepared by
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. in association with WSP, dated May 28, 2025,
provided as Attachment 1 to Report PLN 16-25, be received, and that staff be directed to
implement the growth projections contained therein, through the Pickering Official Plan
Review (Pickering Forward);
3.That staff consider the comments received from Phase 1 (Background & Research) of
the Official Plan Review, and the key outcomes and recommendations in the City of
Pickering Growth Management Strategy Final Report, in preparation of Phase 2 (Policy
Drafting) of the Pickering Official Plan Review process; and
4.That a copy of the City of Pickering Growth Management Strategy Final Report be made
available to interested parties through the project website.
Executive Summary: The purpose of this report is as follows:
•to provide a status update on the Pickering Official Plan Review
•to highlight the public engagement completed to date, and
•to seek Council direction to implement the growth projections in the Pickering Growth
Management Strategy, prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
In May 2024, Pickering began a multiyear process to review and update the Pickering Official
Plan, known as Pickering Forward. Phase 1, Background & Research, of the project will be
completed at the end of June 2025 following the sixth public information centre (PIC). Through
the first five PICs, a total of 1,073 residents and stakeholders engaged with Pickering Forward.
In May 2024, Council approved a proposal for Consulting Services from Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd., (Watson & Associates) to complete a Growth Management Review Study.
Watson & Associates have since completed the study, and have prepared a Pickering Growth
Management Strategy to inform the Pickering Official Plan Review on how, and where, the City
can accommodate population and employment growth.
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Subject: Pickering Official Plan Review Page 2
Relationship to the Pickering Strategic Plan: The recommendations in this report respond
to the Pickering Strategic Plan Priorities of Advance Innovation & Responsible Planning to
Support a Connected, Well-Serviced Community; and Foster an Engaged & Informed
Community.
Financial Implications: The recommendations of this report do not present any financial
implications to the City.
Discussion: The purpose of this report is twofold: to provide a status update on the Pickering
Official Plan Review, including highlights of the public engagement completed to date; and to
seek Council direction to implement the growth projections in the Pickering Growth
Management Strategy, prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson &
Associates).
1. Background
On May 27, 2024, a Special Council Meeting was held, fulfilling the requirements of the
Planning Act, to initiate a statutory review of the Pickering Official Plan. The staff report
provided information on the Official Plan Review process, including the anticipated
timeline, a high level workplan, and details regarding the community engagement
strategy. Staff also provided a Background Paper as an attachment to the staff report.
The Background Paper outlined changes to Provincial legislation, policy, and plans, the
approved Region of Durham Official Plan “Envision Durham”, Pickering initiatives, and
recent growth, housing, and demographic trends.
At the regular Council Meeting on May 27, 2024, Council approved a proposal for
Consulting Services from Watson & Associates for a Growth Management Review
Study. The Study was undertaken to inform the Pickering Official Plan Review on how,
and where, the City can accommodate population and employment growth, and ensure
compliance with provincial policy requirements and the anticipated growth as set out in
Envision Durham.
Since the Official Plan Review commenced, the Province has continued to make
significant changes to Provincial planning policy. These policies have had a direct
impact on the Growth Management Strategy, and the recommendations provided by
Watson & Associates in Attachment 1.
2. Official Plan Review Phase One: Background & Research
An Official Plan Review is a large undertaking, consisting of a wide variety of
components. Staff prepared a timeline and workplan to guide the process (see Figure 1
below). The workplan includes four distinct phases of the project. The first phase, which
will be completed shortly, is the Background and Research phase.
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Subject: Pickering Official Plan Review Page 3
Figure 1: Pickering Forward Timeline and Workplan
The Background and Research phase was anticipated to take a year and includes the
following:
• identifying changes that have occurred at the Provincial, Regional, and local level
that impact the Pickering Official Plan
• creating discussion papers, and hosting multiple opportunities to engage with the
public and stakeholders on specific topics, to receive input and feedback, and
• undertaking a technical Growth Management Strategy
A key element of community engagement and education regarding the Official Plan
Review included the release of discussion papers throughout phase one. The
discussion papers created a springboard for staff to have focused interactions with the
public and stakeholders on a variety of topics contained in the Official Plan, and
included the following:
• Community Vision and Priorities
• Growth Management, Urban Structure, and Urban Design
• Natural Heritage, Hazards, and Sustainability
• Agriculture and Rural Areas
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• Community Structure (includes Parks, Transportation, Cultural Heritage, etc.), and
• Housing and Affordability
To date, staff have held five public information centres (PICs), one for each
discussion paper identified above, with each PIC consisting of an in-person and virtual
meeting. Online surveys were also posted on the project website, and focused on the
topics of the discussion papers. The sixth PIC, on Housing and Affordability, will be held
June 24, 2025 (in-person) and June 25, 2025 (virtual). Through the first five PICs, a
total of 1,073 residents and stakeholders engaged with Pickering Forward. This
included attendance at the PIC’s, both in-person and virtual, and completion of surveys.
Additional comments have also been received by staff independently from the PICs.
In addition to the PICs, staff have utilized the following engagement methods to spread
word of the project and reach as many interested parties as possible:
• tax bill inserts advertising the project in both 2024 and 2025
• online surveys
• social media updates, posters in City facilities, electronic sign advertisements on
City owned signs, and press releases, and
• outreach to two local area high schools with presentations to students, resulting in
188 student surveys completed
Staff have also created and regularly updated a project website
(Pickering.ca/PickeringForward), that includes all the discussion papers, key project
dates, and “What We Heard” reports. The project website also includes staff contacts
and encourages anyone with comments or questions to contact staff at any time
throughout the project.
Staff recognize that there are several methods of communication that may be
implemented to reach the widest number of residents and stakeholders, representing
different demographics and interest groups. As such, staff are still exploring new
opportunities, including reaching out to committees of Council, faith-based groups and
other community groups to inform residents of the project and to encourage their
feedback.
As phase one comes to its completion, it is important to note that this is not the end of
public engagement for Pickering Forward. There will be additional engagement
opportunities as staff finalize the first draft of the new official plan, and seek feedback on
the draft, once completed. As mentioned above, comments are welcome at any time
throughout the project.
3. Provincial Changes Impacting the Official Plan Review and Growth Management
Strategy
The Province has made numerous broad changes to provincial planning policy, which
are anticipated to have an impact on long-term growth management for the City of
Pickering. The Growth Management Strategy details the specifics of these changes,
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and the impact on the new City of Pickering Official Plan and growth projections. Below
are the significant Provincial policy changes affecting Pickering’s Official Plan Review.
3.1 New Provincial Planning Statement
On August 19, 2024, the Province released the Provincial Planning Statement, 2024,
which replaces the Provincial Policy Statement, 2020, and a Place to Grow: Growth
Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2019 (the Growth Plan) as an integrated
document. Some of the key changes include the following:
• The City must plan for growth by providing a planning horizon with a minimum of
20 years and a maximum of 30 years.
• The City must base growth forecasts on Ministry of Finance population projections.
For the current Official Plan Review, the City can use the Growth Plan projections to
2051, which were used for Envision Durham.
• The City is required to plan for intensification within strategic growth areas, and on
lands that are adjacent to existing, and planned, frequent transit corridors.
• The City is required to delineate the boundaries of Protected Major Transit Station
Areas, including the Pickering GO Station.
• Industrial, manufacturing, and small-scale warehousing uses are promoted in
strategic growth areas and mixed-use areas outside of Employment Areas.
• Major offices uses are directed to strategic growth areas, well serviced by transit,
outside of Employment Areas. Standalone office uses are no longer permitted in
Employment Areas, as discussed further in Section 3.2 below.
• Settlement area boundary expansions and employment area conversions are no
longer tied to a municipal comprehensive review, and can now be considered at any
time, subject to certain criteria being met.
3.2 New Definition of Employment Areas
Through Bill 97, the definition of “area of employment” in the Planning Act was amended
on June 8, 2023, and came into effect on October 20, 2024. The new definition has
been revised to include only industrial-type employment. More specifically, it excludes
institutional and commercial uses, and office uses not associated with a primary
employment use.
This change will require the Official Plan Review to re-evaluate employment
designations, specifically the Prestige Employment and Mixed Employment
designations. The Prestige Employment and Mixed Employment designations include
areas that have high visibility from major freeways, and are located in close proximity to
non-employment areas with sensitive land uses, such as residential. These areas were
envisioned as transition areas between community areas and more traditional industrial
employment uses. Many of the uses, including offices, personal service, restaurants,
hotels, financial institutions that are currently permitted in these designations are no
longer permitted in Employment Areas, as per the revised definition in the Planning Act.
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Subject: Pickering Official Plan Review Page 6
This is of particular importance in the Seaton Innovation Corridor and in south Pickering
along Brock Road and Bayly Street.
3.3 Removal of Planning Responsibilities for the Region of Durham
On November 5, 2024, the Province announced that on January 1, 2025, the Regional
Municipality of Durham would be deemed an upper-tier municipality without planning
responsibilities. All the Region’s land use planning functions and responsibilities have
been downloaded to the local municipalities effective January 1, 2025.
This change now means the Province is the approval authority for the Pickering Official
Plan moving forward, where previously it was the Region. While this change does not
specifically impact the work required during the Official Plan Review, it will have a
potential impact on the project timeline. The Province has requested a copy of the draft
new official plan 90 days in advance of the City releasing it to the public for comments.
Previously, when the Region was the approval authority, they were more involved in the
process and would not require such an advanced timeline for review prior to release to
the public. The Region’s review could take place concurrently with the public for majority
of the draft plan.
These wide sweeping changes have been considered by Watson & Associates and are
addressed in the Growth Management Strategy.
4. Key Outcomes from the Growth Management Strategy
Watson & Associates have completed a Growth Management Strategy that
comprehensively assesses: the City’s long-term population, housing, and employment
growth outlook; residential intensification opportunities; and urban land needs to the
year 2051. The Growth Management Strategy used the approved Region of Durham
Official Plan, Envision Durham, as a starting point for the growth management work.
However, due to recent planning policy changes, updates to population projections and
immigration targets, and evolving economic and real-estate trends, Watson &
Associates’ work re-examined the City’s growth management needs.
In summary, the Growth Management Strategy identifies the following key outcomes:
• The long-term population growth forecast, for Pickering to accommodate 256,400
residents by 2051, as identified in Envision Durham, remains the same.
• Medium to longer-term housing demand across the city is forecast to significantly
increase relative to historical growth rates. The housing market is anticipated to be
weak in the near term due to recent reductions in federal immigration targets, rising
interest rates between early 2022 and mid-2023, a recent weakening in macro-
economic conditions, and on-going U.S. trade conflicts.
• The City has sufficient designated growth areas, within Seaton and Northeast
Pickering, to meet the population and employment projections to 2051. Recent
market trends show development occurring at higher densities in designated growth
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areas than what was assumed in Envision Durham. This may result in Pickering not
fully absorbing all of the Northeast Pickering expansion lands by 2051.
• From 2024 to 2051, the employment base for Pickering is forecast to increase by
50,300 employees, reaching 93,800 total jobs by 2051, which is consistent with
Envision Durham.
• Employment growth is forecast to be accommodated in a broad range of sectors,
with 49% in Population-Related Employment, 39% in Employment Land
Employment, 12% Major Office Employment and a minor share in Rural-based
Employment.
• Due to numerous broad changes to provincial planning policy and regional economic
and real-estate market trends, the Seaton Employment lands must be reviewed as
part of the Official Plan Review. Specifically, two Prestige Industrial Nodes, at the
Brock Road and Highway 407, and Whites Road and Highway 407 interchanges, will
be considered to ensure the visions can be maintained while being consistent with
new Provincial policy.
Based on a comprehensive review of the current Pickering Official Plan, new Provincial
planning policy, and best practices, the Strategy concludes by identifying a number of
key policy recommendations and options, with respect to growth management, that will
inform the Official Plan Review.
5. Impacts of Provincial Legislative Changes on the Seaton Employment Area
The Seaton Employment Area has been planned to play a significant role in
accommodating high quality employment opportunities in Pickering and the Region. All
the employment lands in the Seaton Innovation Corridor are designated Prestige
Employment in the current Pickering Official Plan.
The Prestige Employment designation requires higher performance standards, in
appearance, and limits some manufacturing uses, due to the high visibility from major
freeways and their proximity to residential areas and other sensitive land uses.
Additionally, the Pickering Official Plan permits limited personal service uses,
convenience commercial, restaurants and financial institutions, which are ancillary to,
and serve, the employment area.
The Pickering Official Plan further limits the uses permitted in the Seaton Prestige
Employment Area at gateway locations at Whites Road and Highway 407, and Brock
Road and Highway 407 interchanges. These areas are defined as “Prestige
Employment Nodes” due to the planned function as major gateways into the Seaton
Employment area and the broader Pickering community. These Employment Nodes are
envisioned to develop as corporate office business parks, with a focus on office uses,
including free-standing major office buildings and/or employment uses which integrate
office and prestige industrial operations in the same building. These lands are also
supported by business employment and limited personal service uses serving the
surrounding employment area.
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Subject: Pickering Official Plan Review Page 8
These two Employment Nodes are located in Neighbourhood 20: Thompson’s Corners
and Neighborhood 21: Seaton Innovation Corridor of the Official Plan. These lands are
outlined in red on Figure 2 and Figure 3 below.
Figure 2: Thompson’s Corners Neighbourhood Plan with Prestige Employment Nodes
highlighted in red.
There are two related factors which require the long-term vision for the Seaton
Employment Area to be re-examined as part of the Official Plan Review process. The
first factor relates to changes to provincial planning policy with respect to the definition
of Employment Area. The second factor relates to evolving non-residential real estate
market conditions, specifically in the office sector, which has experienced a significant
decrease in demand since the plan for Seaton was first approved.
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Subject: Pickering Official Plan Review Page 9
Figure 3: Seaton Innovation Corridor Neighbourhood Plan with Prestige Employment Nodes
highlighted in red.
As outlined in the Growth Management Strategy, Chapter 8, it is recommended that the
Prestige Employment Node designation be further reviewed through Pickering Forward,
in the context of the new provincial policy and the intent of the planned function of the
lands, specifically in relation to their proximity to residential and mixed-use developments.
This may require the City to reconsider the Employment Area designation for these
lands and explore options to maintain these areas as major gateways, with a range of
employment uses that support both employment areas and non-employment areas.
6. Next Steps
This report provides Council with an update on the Pickering Official Plan Review, and
presents the completed Pickering Growth Management Strategy, prepared by Watson &
Associates.
Staff are seeking direction from Council to implement the growth projections in the
Pickering Growth Management Strategy. Further, staff will be evaluating the comments
received through the Background & Research phase of Pickering Forward, as well as
the key outcomes and recommendations of the Pickering Growth Management Strategy
report, to inform the ongoing Official Plan Review.
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Subject: Pickering Official Plan Review Page 10
As phase one of the Official Plan Review concludes, staff are continuing with the next
two phases, including drafting official plan policy, and preparing a draft recommendation
for Council. Staff will continue reaching out to the community to receive feedback from
residents and stakeholders throughout the next phases. Residents and stakeholders are
encouraged to contact staff should they have any comments or questions.
Staff are targeting the end of 2025 for the public release of a draft Official Plan. When
the draft Official Plan is ready for public release, staff will report back to Council.
Attachment:
1 City of Pickering Growth Management Strategy Final Report, May 28, 2025
Prepared By:
Original Signed By
Brandon Weiler, MCIP, RPP
Principal Planner, Policy
Original Signed By
Déan Jacobs, MCIP, RPP
Manager, Policy & Geomatics
Approved/Endorsed By:
Original Signed By
Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP
Chief Planner
Original Signed By
Kyle Bentley, P. Eng.
Director, City Development & CBO
BW:ld
Recommended for the consideration
of Pickering City Council
Original Signed By
Marisa Carpino, M.A.
Chief Administrative Officer
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
905-272-3600
May 28, 2025 info@watsonecon.ca
In association with:
Attachment 1 to Report PLN 16-25
Growth Management Strategy
City of Pickering
________________________
Final Report
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Executive Summary ....................................................................................................... i
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................... 1
1.2 Background ............................................................................................... 2
2. Planning Policy Context Influencing Long-Range Growth Forecasts
in Durham Region ............................................................................................... 5
2.1 Provincial Planning Context ....................................................................... 5
2.1.1 Bill 23 ............................................................................................ 5
2.1.2 Bill 185 and the Provincial Planning Statement, 2024 ................... 6
2.2 Envision Durham: Durham Region Official Plan ...................................... 13
2.3 City of Pickering Official Plan ................................................................... 15
3. Overview of Macro-Economic and Regional Trends ..................................... 18
3.1 Navigating Increased Uncertainty in a Changing Global Economy .......... 18
3.2 Evolving Macro-Economic Trends Following COVID-19 .......................... 19
3.3 COVID-19 and the Changing Nature of Work .......................................... 21
3.4 Provincial Economic Outlook within the Broader Canadian and
Global Context ......................................................................................... 22
3.4.1 Ontario’s Population Growth Outlook within the Canadian
Context ....................................................................................... 22
3.4.2 Provincial Gross Domestic Product Trends and Near-Term
Forecast ...................................................................................... 25
3.5 Regional Labour Force and Population Growth Trends ........................... 26
3.5.1 Regional Labour Force Growth Trends ....................................... 26
3.5.2 Provincial Population Growth Trends .......................................... 28
3.5.3 Population Growth Outlook for the Greater Toronto Area ........... 29
3.5.4 Long-Term Outlook for Durham Region ...................................... 30
3.5.5 Observations ............................................................................... 32
4. Economic, Demographic, and Housing Trends within the City of
Pickering and the Surrounding Market Area .................................................. 34
4.1 Population Growth Trends ....................................................................... 34
4.2 Socio-Economic Trends and Housing Affordability .................................. 36
4.2.1 Housing Market Price Trends for the City of Pickering and
the Broader Market Area ............................................................. 36
4.2.2 Housing Affordability Trends for the City of Pickering ................. 39
Table of Contents (Cont’d)
Page
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
4.3 Recent Residential Development Trends ................................................. 40
4.3.1 City of Pickering Residential Building Permit Trends .................. 40
4.3.2 City of Pickering Census Housing Trends by Tenure .................. 42
4.4 Recent Non-residential Development Trends .......................................... 43
4.4.1 Local Employment Trends by Sector .......................................... 43
4.4.2 City of Pickering Non-Residential Development Activity by
Sector ......................................................................................... 44
5. City of Pickering Intensification Analysis ...................................................... 46
5.1 Purpose ................................................................................................... 46
5.2 Objectives ................................................................................................ 46
5.3 Methodology ............................................................................................ 47
5.4 Study Area (Step 1) ................................................................................. 50
5.5 Provincial Changes (Step 2) .................................................................... 50
5.6 Development Pipeline and Jurisdictional Scan and Analysis (Step
3) ............................................................................................................. 53
5.7 Assumptions for Soft Site Analysis (Step 4) ............................................. 58
5.7.1 Building Height and Net Density ................................................. 58
5.7.2 Takeout Factor ............................................................................ 59
5.8 Soft Site Selection (Step 5) ...................................................................... 59
5.9 Intensification Potential (Step 6) .............................................................. 62
5.10 Conclusions ............................................................................................. 63
6. City of Pickering Long-Term Planning, Housing and Employment
Growth ............................................................................................................... 64
6.1 Approach to Long-Term Growth Forecast for the City of Pickering .......... 64
6.2 Near-Term Population Growth Trends in the City of Pickering, 2021
to 2026 ..................................................................................................... 69
6.3 Longer-Term Population Growth Outlook for the City of Pickering .......... 71
6.4 Aligning Housing Needs with Future Population Growth in the City
of Pickering .............................................................................................. 73
6.4.1 Attracting Younger Generations .................................................. 73
6.4.2 Accommodating Adults and Families .......................................... 74
6.4.3 Accommodating an Aging Population ......................................... 75
6.5 Long-Term Population and Housing Growth Forecast, 2021 to 2051 ...... 77
6.5.1 Forecast Population by Age Group ............................................. 79
6.5.2 Total Housing Forecast ............................................................... 80
6.5.3 Residential Growth Scenarios by Planning Policy Area .............. 82
6.6 Long-Term Employment Growth, 2024 to 2051 ....................................... 87
6.6.1 Employment Forecast by Employment Category ........................ 89
7. City of Pickering Urban Land Needs ............................................................... 94
Table of Contents (Cont’d)
Page
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
7.1 Community Area Land Needs .................................................................. 94
7.1.1 Designated Growth Area ............................................................. 94
7.1.2 Community Area Land Supply and People and Jobs
Accommodated ........................................................................... 95
7.1.3 People and Jobs Density ............................................................ 97
7.1.4 Community Area Land Needs ..................................................... 99
7.2 Employment Area Land Needs .............................................................. 102
7.2.1 Employment Area Land Supply ................................................. 102
7.2.2 Recent Employment Area Development Activity ....................... 105
7.2.3 Employment Area Demand ....................................................... 105
7.2.4 Employment Growth Allocation by Employment Area ............... 106
7.2.5 Employment Area Land Needs ................................................. 107
8. Designated Growth Area Employment Area Analysis – Focus on
Seaton ............................................................................................................. 109
8.1 What is the Long-Term Vision for the Seaton Employment Area? ......... 110
8.2 Changing Provincial Planning Policy Direction Regarding
Employment Areas ................................................................................ 115
8.3 Navigating the Vision for Seaton in the Face of Evolving Office Real
Estate Market Conditions ....................................................................... 116
8.4 Planning for Employment Areas within Provincial and Local
Planning Policy Framework ................................................................... 117
8.5 Employment Area Removals ................................................................. 120
8.5.1 Guiding Principles for Evaluating Employment Area
Removals .................................................................................. 121
8.5.2 Employment Area Evaluation Criteria ....................................... 122
8.6 Planning Considerations for Neighborhood 20: Thompson’s
Corners, Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node ........... 124
8.6.1 Addressing a Minor Reduction in Employment Area Land
Need for Seaton Employment Area ......................................... 126
8.6.2 Planning for Employment Supportive and Office Uses ............. 126
8.6.3 Accommodating Commercial and Institutional Uses
Previously Permitted in Seaton Employment Areas .................. 127
8.7 Planning Considerations for Neighborhood 21: Pickering Innovation
Corridor .................................................................................................. 129
8.7.1 The Northern Portion of the Prestige Employment Node is
Developing as a Prestige Employment Area ............................. 131
8.7.2 Retain the Southwest Quadrant as a Prestige Employment
Node ........................................................................................ 131
Table of Contents (Cont’d)
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Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
8.7.3 The Southeast Quadrant of the Prestige Employment Node
Provides Opportunity to Support the Seaton Employment
Area .......................................................................................... 132
8.7.4 Provide Sufficient Lands to Accommodate Public Service
Facilities in Seaton .................................................................... 132
8.8 Next Steps ............................................................................................. 133
9. Policy Options and Recommendations ........................................................ 134
9.1 Growth Forecasting ............................................................................... 135
9.1.1 Presentation of Population and Employment Forecasts,
and Neighbourhood Breakdowns .............................................. 135
9.1.2 Housing Forecasts .................................................................... 135
9.2 Urban Areas ........................................................................................... 136
9.2.1 Defining Urban Area Boundaries and Phasing of
Development ............................................................................. 136
9.2.2 Urban Area Boundary Expansions ............................................ 138
9.2.3 Greenfield Area Development Densities ................................... 139
9.2.4 Allocation of Growth Within Urban Areas .................................. 140
9.2.5 Residential Growth .................................................................... 141
9.3 Intensification and Strategic Growth Areas ............................................ 141
9.3.1 Intensification ............................................................................ 141
9.3.2 Establishing a Hierarchy of Strategic Growth Areas ................. 142
9.3.3 Height and Density in Strategic Growth Areas .......................... 143
9.4 Employment Areas ................................................................................ 145
Appendix A Growth Projections Methodology ....................................................... A-1
Appendix B Household Profiling and Trends ........................................................ B-1
Appendix C Housing Units with Development Applications ................................ C-1
Appendix D Population and Housing Forecast ..................................................... D-1
Appendix E City-wide Employment Growth by Land Use Category ..................... E-1
Appendix F Conformity Matrix ................................................................................. F-1
Appendix G Jurisdictional Scan ............................................................................. G-1
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
Acronym Full Description of Acronym
A.R.U. Additional residential unit
BRT Bus rapid transit
B.U.A. Built-up area
C.M.A. Census Metropolitan Area
D.G.A. Designated greenfield/growth area
D.R.O.P. Durham Regional Official Plan
E.L.E. Employment land employment
E.S.T.R. Employment Strategy Technical Report
F.S.I. Floor space index
G.D.P. Gross domestic product
G.G.H. Greater Golden Horseshoe
G.M.S. Growth Management Strategy
G.T.A. Greater Toronto Area
G.T.H.A. Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area
G.I.S. Geographic Information Systems
H.I.S.T.R. Housing Intensification Study Technical Report
M.C.R. Municipal Comprehensive Review
M.M.A.H. Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
M.O.E. Major office employment
M.O.F. Ministry of Finance
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations (Cont’d)
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
M.T.S.A. Major transit station area
N.F.P.O.W. No fixed place of work
N.P.R. Non-permanent resident
OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation
O.P. Official Plan
O.P.A. Official Plan Amendment
O.P.R. Official Plan Review
P.M.T.S.A. Protected Major Transit Station Area
P.P.S. Provincial Policy/Planning Statement
P.R.E. Population-related employment
S.A.B.E. Settlement Area Boundary Expansion
S.G.A. Strategic growth area
U.G.C. Urban growth centre
U.S. United States
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE i
Executive Summary
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson), in association with WSP, was retained
by the City of Pickering in 2024 to undertake a Growth Management Strategy (G.M.S.).,
to comprehensively assess the City’s long-term population, housing, and employment
growth outlook; residential intensification opportunities; and urban land needs to the
year 2051. Building on the direction of the new Durham Regional Official Plan
(D.R.O.P.), this review will form a foundational document to the City of Pickering Official
Plan Review (O.P.R.), known as Pickering Forward, by providing key direction with
respect to the following:
• Long-term population, housing, and employment growth forecast for the City and
allocations by planning policy area developed within the context of provincial,
Regional, and local policy, growth trends, as well as economic and demographic
drivers and disruptors. For the purposes of sensitivity testing, three long-term
growth scenarios are explored, including a recommended growth scenario.
• Population, housing, and employment growth allocations by planning policy area,
including:
o Built-up Area (B.U.A.);
o Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.) including the Seaton Urban Area and
Duffin Heights, Northeast Pickering Expansion Area; and
o Rural Area.
• A residential intensification analysis.
• A Community Area land needs assessment analysis.
• An Employment Area land needs analysis.
• An employment analysis, with specific direction provided to the Seaton
Employment Nodes within the Seaton Employment Area.
• Planning policy recommendations related to long-term growth management and
monitoring.
Since the release of the Region of Durham Municipal Comprehensive Review (M.C.R.)
in 2022, prepared as part of Envision Durham, several key factors have contributed to
the need to review the long-term population, employment, and household forecast for
the City of Pickering, including the following:
• Numerous broad changes to provincial planning policy and municipal
governance, which are anticipated to have a direct impact on long-term growth
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE ii
management for the City of Pickering. These key provincial planning policy
changes are explored in greater detail in Chapter 2.
• Updates to Canadian federal immigration targets for permanent and non-
permanent residents (N.P.R.).
• Several updates (provided annually) to long-range population growth forecasts
prepared by the Ministry of Finance (M.O.F.), including population forecasts for
Durham Region.
• Evolving regional economic and real-estate market trends across the Greater
Toronto and Hamilton Area (G.T.H.A.), Durham Region, and the City of
Pickering.
• Envision Durham: Regional Official Plan, approved by the M.M.A.H., has
introduced 948 hectares of new Community Area lands and 235 hectares of new
Employment Area lands in Northeast Pickering. The Northeast Pickering lands
are examined herein within the context of recent policy changes and new data
released since the completion of the Durham M.C.R.
In accordance with the above, it is necessary to re-examine the City of Pickering’s near-
term and longer-term population, housing, and employment growth forecasts; growth
allocations; urban land needs assessment; and growth management policies within the
context of current provincial planning, regional growth trends, and local drivers of growth
across the City. It is noted that the analysis provided herein presents the best
information currently available. The results of this G.M.S. are to be used to guide future
residential and non-residential growth, urban land needs and the timing of infrastructure.
This analysis is not to be used to constrain or set a capacity limit on urban development.
Provided below is a summary of the key findings of this Growth Analysis Review.
Macro-Economic Trends Influencing Economic Growth Trends and Planning for
Employment Areas in the G.T.H.A.
The strength of the City of Pickering’s economy is strongly correlated to the
competitiveness of the broader G.T.H.A. regional economy. A range of macro-
economic and demographic factors are anticipated to influence future population and
employment growth by sector across the G.T.H.A. and more specifically within the City
of Pickering. These factors are anticipated to influence future growth trends on
residential and non-residential lands within Pickering and the broader regional market
area over the coming decades.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE iii
To begin, advancements in technology and telecommunications infrastructure as well as
the rise of artificial intelligence are having significant impacts on the nature of economic
growth and labour force trends both globally and locally. Technological innovation,
which was accelerated during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, has
increased opportunities related to work at home and hybrid work at home/at office
models and distributed work/learning. In addition, the continued rise of the gig
economy[1] has individuals using technology to supplement their income in more flexible
ways. Lastly, the increasing use of technology in commercial services is also leading to
alternative platforms to purchase and share products.
The nature of traditional industrial processes is also rapidly shifting, becoming more
automated and capital/technology intensive with lower labour requirements. As a result
of these changes, emerging advanced manufacturing and clean technology sectors
often have siting, space, and built-form requirements that are significantly different from
traditional manufacturing. This may include integrated operations combining office,
research and development, warehousing and logistics, and on-site manufacturing in a
“campus-style” setting. Anticipating and responding to the evolving needs of industry
will be necessary for the City to better position itself for sustained growth, particularly in
faster growing emerging industrial sectors.
Fundamental to the long-term planning and economic development objectives of the
City is an adequate supply and market choice of employment lands over the next 30
years and beyond within well-defined, designated Employment Areas as well as other
mixed-use commercial areas. Generally, Employment Areas should offer proximity to
Goods Movement infrastructure along transportation corridors. Other attributes, such
as access to higher-order transit, proximity to employment-supportive uses, and
connectivity to Community Areas, are also critical for certain Employment Areas,
particularly those that focus on knowledge and innovation.
City of Pickering Population Profile and Housing Growth Trends
Pickering’s population has experienced moderate growth over the past two decades.
Between 2001 and 2021, the City grew at an annual average growth rate of 0.7%, or
approximately 650 people per year. During this same time period, Durham Region grew
[1] The gig economy refers to a general workforce environment, which includes short-
term employment, contractual jobs, and independent contractors such as Uber drivers,
social media platforms, or crowdfunding.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE iv
at a considerably faster annual average rate of 1.6%. Since then, the City’s population
has increased at an annual growth rate of 3.1% from 2021 to 2024, slightly exceeding
the Region’s annual growth rate of 2.9%.
Demographic trends strongly influence both housing need and form. As of 2021, the
average age of the Pickering population is 41 years of age, which is comparable to the
provincial average. Since 2016, the City has experienced an increase in the average
age of the population (previously 40) driven by a significant increase in the share of
seniors (population aged 65+) increasing from 9% to 16% of the population between
2006 and 2021. Over the next 30 years, the City’s share of population in the 65+ age
group is forecast to increase at a faster rate than the City-wide population, primarily
driven by the aging of the City’s existing Baby Boomer population.[2] This is important to
recognize as it has implications regarding housing demand by structure type and tenure
as well as municipal service needs.
Planning for a Broader Supply of New Housing Options
Over the past two decades, the G.T.H.A. has captured a large share of the population
growth in Ontario. Recent trends between 2016 and 2024, however, suggest that while
the G.T.H.A. is expected to continue to experience steady population growth, the share
of the provincial population increase is anticipated to continue to shift outward into the
Greater Golden Horseshoe (G.G.H.) Outer Ring and the remaining areas of Southern
Ontario to the west and east. Notwithstanding this continued outward growth pressure
from the G.T.H.A. to the remaining regions of Southern Ontario, strong population
growth and housing demand is anticipated within the City of Pickering over the next
three decades, largely driven by the City’s supply of future housing options within both
grade-related (i.e. low- and medium-density) and high-density housing forms.
The City of Pickering has averaged 680 new housing units per year in accordance with
residential building permit activity 2011 to 2024. Historically, development activity has
been dominated by low-density units;[3] however, since 2015, the City has experienced
[2] Baby Boomers are defined as those born between 1946 and 1964.
[3] Low density households include single and semi-detached houses.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE v
an increase in medium- and high-density developments.[4],[5] Steady demand for higher-
density forms is expected to increase over the medium to longer-term forecast due to
on-going challenges related to housing affordability, combined with increasing needs
from a growing population of young adults and seniors.
City of Pickering Population and Housing Growth Outlook to 2051
A broad range of considerations related to demographics, economics, and
socioeconomics are anticipated to impact future population, housing and employment
growth trends throughout Pickering over the 2021 to 2051 planning horizon. These
factors will not only affect the rate and magnitude of growth but will also influence the
form, density, and location of residential and non-residential development.
Figure ES-1 presents the long-term population forecast for the City of Pickering. By
2051, Pickering’s population is forecast to reach 256,400, as approved by the Ministry
of Municipal Affairs and Housing (M.M.A.H) in accordance with Envision Durham. This
represents an increase of approximately 5,100 people per year and an annual growth
rate of 3.1%.
[4] Medium density households include row townhouses, back-to-back townhouses, and
apartments in duplexes.
[5] High density households include stacked townhouses, and bachelor, 1 bedroom, and
2-bedroom+ apartment units. This also includes self-contained living accommodations
such as apartments and small residential units (i.e. secondary units / additional
residential units).
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE vi
Figure ES1
City of Pickering
Total Population, 2006 to 2051
Notes: Population includes net Census undercount and has been rounded
Source: Historical derived from Statistics Canada Census and Demography Division data, 2006
to 2021, and forecast prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
The long-term population growth forecast for the City of Pickering under Envision
Durham remains the recommended growth forecast for the purpose of long-range
planning for the following reasons:
1. It represents a reasonable future rate of population growth relative to historical
trends, considering recent and forecast immigration levels expected for Canada
and Ontario over the next several years and longer-term population growth
forecasts for the province. Furthermore, the share of population growth in the 15
to 64 age group is reasonable within the context of historical migration patterns
and broader demographic trends anticipated across the province and the
G.T.H.A.
2. Pickering is a relatively young municipality. As a result, population growth in the
City will continue to be driven by both natural increase (births less deaths) and
net migration. In contrast, the population in some Ontario municipalities is not
growing from natural increase and, in some cases, municipalities are
91,400 92,400 95,500 103,600
125,100
150,100
176,400
200,400
228,100
256,400
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
Po
p
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a
t
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n
Year
Historical Forecast
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE vii
experiencing negative trends regarding natural population growth. Looking
forward, annual net migration is forecast to be higher relative to 2001 to 2021
levels. Forecast trends in net migration and natural increase are ambitious but
reasonable for the purposes of long-range planning and growth management.
3. The forecast level of annual new housing development required to accommodate
the population growth forecast represents a considerable increase in housing
activity (explored later in this chapter). The near-term growth forecast (next five
to 10 years) is supported by recent residential building permit activity and active
development applications currently under review by the City. While the housing
forecast is ambitious, it is achievable considering the forecast population growth
outlook and corresponding housing needs across Durham Region and more
broadly throughout the G.T.H.A. This is further supported by a steady increase
in housing development activity in the City’s B.U.A., as well as strong anticipated
demand for a range of new housing options in the Seaton Urban Area and
Northeast Pickering.
Figure ES-2 summarizes Pickering’s housing forecast from 2021 to 2051 in five-year
growth increments. Key observations are as follows:
• To accommodate the long-term population growth forecast over the next three
decades, the City will need to plan for 35,400 additional households across a
broad range of housing options. This equates to an annual average of 1,840
units per year, a significant increase from the historical average of 350 units
annually observed from 2006 to 2021.
• New housing construction levels have been notably stronger in the City of
Pickering since 2021, particularly for high-density condominiums. However,
recent reductions in federal immigration targets, rising interest rates between
early 2022 and mid-2023, a recent weakening in macro-economic conditions and
on-going U.S. trade conflicts have softened the Canadian residential real estate
market, including the local market in Pickering. Within this current environment,
the national, provincial and regional housing market, particularly for high-density
condominiums, is anticipated to remain relatively weak over the near-term (i.e.
next 12 to 18 months). Housing demand across the City over the medium to
longer-term is forecast to significantly increase relative to historical growth rates,
largely driven by robust forecast net migration levels to Durham Region and
Pickering.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE viii
Figure ES-2
City of Pickering
Total Incremental Housing Forecast, 2006 to 2051
Note: Figures have been rounded and may not add up precisely.
Source: Historical data derived from Statistics Canada Census profiles; forecast prepared by
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of Pickering Residential Growth Scenarios by Planning Policy Area, 2021 to
2051
Building the growth forecast presented in Figures ES-1 and ES-2, the following three
long-term population and housing growth scenarios have been developed by Planning
Policy Area:
• Scenario 1: Baseline intensification rate of 40% and 52 people and jobs per
hectare for Community Area Expansion lands, as previously identified under
Envision Durham.
• Scenario 2: Intensification rate of 45% and 65 people and jobs per hectare for
Community Area Expansion lands.
• Scenario 3: Intensification rate of 50% and 65 people and jobs per hectare for
Community Area Expansion lands.
Figure ES-3 summarizes the City’s population and housing allocations by Planning
Policy Area, with additional details provided in Chapter 6.5.3. Key assumptions are as
follows:
220
320 500
1,500
1,780 1,870 1,760
2,040 2,080
Historical Average:
350
Forecast Average:
1,840
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006 to
2011
2011 to
2016
2016 to
2021
2021 to
2026
2026 to
2031
2031 to
2036
2036 to
2041
2041 to
2046
2046 to
2051
An
n
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A
v
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r
a
g
e
Ho
u
s
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n
g
G
r
o
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t
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Period
Historical
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE ix
• All growth scenarios maximize low-density housing development potential in the
B.U.A., with increased intensification under Scenarios 2 and 3.
• The Seaton Urban Area is forecast to accommodate an additional 21,100
households from 2021 to 2051, consisting of 30% low-density, 41% medium-
density, and 29% high-density housing units. Planned urban development for
this area is consistent across the three growth scenarios.
• For the Northeast Pickering Expansion Area, the Scenario 1 housing unit mix
primarily consists of low-density housing units, with an average density of 52
people and jobs per hectare. Under Scenarios 2 and 3, the density increases to
65 people and jobs per hectare resulting in a greater share and higher absolute
level of medium-density and high-density households in the expansion area.
• Under Scenario 1, new housing development from 2021 to 2051 consists of 33%
low-density, 26% medium-density, and 41% high-density units.
• Under each of the growth options, the City’s housing mix by structure type is
forecast to gradually shift further from low-density to medium- and high-density
housing forms over the 30-year forecast period.
• Under all three scenarios, forecast housing demand in the Rural Area is oriented
towards low-density housing in addition to some high-density housing through
secondary units. All three growth options forecast the same amount of housing
demand in the Rural Area.
Scenario 1 is the recommended scenario as it implements the direction of the
recommended Envision Durham growth scenario carried out as part of the Region of
Durham M.C.R. Furthermore, a 40% intensification target is supported based on an
assessment of historical housing trends, and the demand for high-density housing
within the broader regional G.T.H.A. market. A 40% intensification target results in an
average of 725 new housing units annually in the B.U.A. from 2021 to 2051, which is a
17% increase relative to the last decade. It is important to note that the intensification
target is not to be used to constrain or set a capacity limit on urban development.
The purpose of Scenarios 2 and 3 is not to suggest a different outcome for the
Community Area land requirement of 948 hectares in the Northeast Pickering
Expansion Area, but to illustrate the sensitivity of different intensification and densities
on the type and distribution of residential development and Community Area expansion
needs in Northeast Pickering.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE x
Figure ES-3
City of Pickering
Total Incremental Housing Forecast, 2006 to 2051
Notes:
- Low density households include single and semi-detached houses.
- Medium density households include row townhouses, back-to-back townhouses, and
apartments in duplexes.
- High density households include stacked townhouses, and bachelor, 1-bedroom, and 2-
bedroom+ apartment units. This also includes self-contained living accommodations such as
apartments and small residential units (i.e. secondary units / additional residential units).
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of Pickering Employment Growth Forecast, 2024 to 2051
Figure ES-4 summarizes long-term employment forecast for the City of Pickering over
the 2024 to 2051 forecast period. Further details are provided in Section 6.6. Key
observations are as follows:
• From 2024 to 2051, the employment base for Pickering is forecast to increase by
50,300 employees, reaching 93,800 total jobs by 2051, which is consistent with
Envision Durham.
• Employment growth is forecast to be accommodated in a broad range of sectors,
with 49% in Population-Related Employment, 39% in Employment Land
Scenario
Population
Including
Census
Undercount
Low Density
Households
Medium
Density
Households
High Density
Households
Total
Households
Scenario 1: 40% Intensification 46,600 660 4,790 16,320 21,760
Scenario 2: 45% Intensification 62,300 660 5,480 18,650 24,780
Scenario 3: 50% Intensification 71,000 660 6,100 20,780 27,540
Scenario 1: 40% Intensification 105,800 17,220 9,810 6,230 33,260
Scenario 2: 45% Intensification 90,100 10,720 11,880 7,650 30,240
Scenario 3: 50% Intensification 81,400 9,390 10,900 7,190 27,490
Scenarios 1 to 3 400 90 0 30 120
Scenario 1: 40% Intensification 152,800 17,960 14,600 22,580 55,140
Scenario 2: 45% Intensification 152,800 11,460 17,360 26,330 55,140
Scenario 3: 50% Intensification 152,800 10,130 17,010 28,010 55,140
Scenario 1: 40% Intensification -33% 26% 41% 100%
Scenario 2: 45% Intensification -21% 31% 48% 100%
Scenario 3: 50% Intensification -18% 31% 51% 100%
Built-Up Area
DGA & NE Pickering Expansion Area Total
Rural Area
City of Pickering Total
City of Pickering Total Housing Shares
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xi
Employment, 12% Major Office Employment and a minor share in Rural-based
Employment.
Figure ES-4
City of Pickering
Total Employment Forecast, 2024 to 2051
Notes:
- Figures have been rounded.
- Total employment includes N.F.P.O.W. and work at home jobs.
- Activity rate is defined as the number of jobs in the City divided by the number of residents.
- Statistics Canada 2021 Census place of work employment data has been reviewed. The
2021 Census employment results have not been utilized due to a significant increase in work at
home employment captured due to Census enumeration occurring during the provincial COVID-
19 lockdown from April 1, 2021 to June 14, 2021.
Source: 2016 derived from Statistics Canada Census data, 2024, and forecast prepared by
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
City of Pickering Community Area Land Needs
The D.G.A. in the City of Pickering covers approximately 1,200 gross developable
hectares (2,970 acres). The majority of the D.G.A. Community Area supply is within the
Seaton Urban Area, covering approximately 875 hectares (2,160 acres), with a very
small portion totalling 5 hectares (12 acres) located within the Duffin Heights
neighbourhood. It is anticipated that the City’s D.G.A. will accommodate an average
density of approximately 94 people and jobs per hectare., resulting in approximately
65,000 residents accommodated in over 21,100 housing units, and 17,200 jobs by
37,500 39,300 43,500 45,400
56,000
67,700
77,500
85,800
93,800
36%38%37%36%
37%38%39%38%37%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2016 2021 2024 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
Ac
t
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y
R
a
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e
To
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E
m
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Year
Historical Forecast Activity Rate
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xii
2051, in line with the Seaton Urban Area forecast prepared under Envision Durham, as
adjusted by Watson.[6]
As previously discussed, three long-range growth scenarios were explored to assess
long-term opportunities for the City to accommodate a range of intensification targets
and the impacts on the type and distribution of population, housing, and employment
growth, as well as urban land requirements to 2051. Figure ES-5 summarizes these
findings, with the following key outcomes:
• Scenario 1 is the recommended scenario as it implements the direction of
Envision Durham. The D.G.A. will accommodate 109,600 people and 22,900
jobs by 2051. At a density of 52 people and jobs per hectare for the expansion
lands requires an urban expansion of 948 hectares (approximately 2,340 acres).
• Scenarios 2 and 3 examine a revised housing unit mix for the Community Area,
taking into account demographic and market trends, as well as higher-density
assumptions (jobs per hectare) observed in comparable municipalities, along
with recently approved plans in the Seaton Urban Area.
• In Scenario 2, with a 45% intensification rate in the City, the growth forecast for
the D.G.A. decreases by 15,700 people and jobs. In Scenario 3, with a 50%
intensification rate, the growth forecast for the D.G.A. decreases to 25,900
people and jobs.
• Both Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 assume a density of 65 people and jobs per
hectare. Under Scenario 2, the Community Area lands required in the Northeast
Pickering Area would be reduced to 518 hectares (approximately 1,280 acres),
and in Scenario 3 to 360 hectares (approximately 890 acres).
• Upon our review of the long-term growth assumptions for the City of Pickering
under the D.R.O.P., we have concluded that the recommended long-term
[6] Relative to the Envision Durham, Watson has made adjustments to the allocation of
employment growth within the Seaton Secondary Plan Area. The total employment for
Seaton remains unchanged; however, Watson downwardly adjusted the employment
anticipated in Employment Areas in Seaton and upwardly adjusted the employment in
the Community Area in Seaton to reflect a higher amount of work at home employment
and reduced office employment in the Employment Area. As a result, the employment
in the Community Area in Seaton is approximately 1,000 jobs higher than in the
Envision Durham reporting. A further discussion regarding this employment adjustment
is provided in Chapter 8. The population in Seaton has also been adjusted upwards
due to utilizing 2021 Statistics Canada Census persons per unit data which had
increased occupancy levels relative to the 2016 Census.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xiii
residential intensification target for the City of 40% is appropriate, however, the
long-term average greenfield density target of 52 people and jobs per ha is low.
Accordingly, it is foreseeable that the City may not fully absorb all of the
expansion lands (i.e., 948 hectares) in the Northeast Pickering Area by 2051, as
identified under Scenario 1, unless the City achieves a higher pace of greenfield
development in Northeast Pickering than anticipated.
• It is recognized that there are potential uncertainties with respect to the forecast
pace of urban land absorption and average greenfield density planned for
Northeast Pickering over the long-term. It is also recognized that the extension of
services in this area must be well aligned with anticipated demand for new urban
lands and that the phasing of such new infrastructure is optimized in a fiscally
responsible manner. Accordingly, it will be important for the City to develop an
appropriate phasing strategy for the Northeast Pickering Expansion Area.
Figure ES-5
City of Pickering
Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.) Community Area Land Needs to 2051
D.G.A. Community Area Land
Needs Calculation Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
2051 Population A 109,600 93,900 85,200
2051 Jobs B 22,900 21,500 20,000
2051 Total People and Jobs C = A + B 132,500 115,400 105,200
Residents and Jobs Accommodated
in D.G.A. Land Supply (Seaton
Secondary Plan and Duffin Heights)
D 82,400 81,800 81,800
Growth Not Accommodated in D.G.A. E = D - C 49,300 33,600 23,400 i.e., Northeast Pickering Area
D.G.A. People and Jobs Density F 52 65 65
Land Area Required (Gross
Developable Hectares) G = E / F 948 517 360
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xiv
City of Pickering Employment Area Land Needs
Figure ES-6 summarizes the City of Pickering Employment Area land needs with the
key outcomes:
• The city is forecast to accommodate 22,200 jobs in Employment Areas from
2024 to 2051, and has a capacity of 15,600 jobs within its vacant Employment
Areas. This results in an additional 6,600 jobs which need to be accommodated
through Employment Area expansion.
• Based on a density of 28 jobs per hectare, this would require approximately 235
gross developable hectares (581 acres) of Employment Area land, which aligns
with the findings of the D.R.O.P. and Envision Durham.
• Based on a review of recent development trends in the Seaton Innovation
Corridor, the assumed average Employment Area density for this area as set out
under the D.R.O.P. appears high. It is noted that the lower average density
recently achieved on occupied employment lands places upward pressure on the
remaining vacant lands to achieve the same targeted density for the Seaton
Employment Area as set out in the D.R.O.P. As a result, the City may need to
develop lands within the Northeast Pickering Area sooner than anticipated.
• The City should continue to monitor its Employment Area land supply to ensure
an adequate supply of shovel-ready lands is maintained.
Figure ES-6
City of Pickering
Employment Area Land Needs, 2024 to 2051
Employment Area Lands Calculation Land Needs
(Hectares)
Total Employment, 2024 to 2051 A 22,200
Accommodated in Existing Employment Areas
(Seaton Innovation Corridor, Pickering East Employment
Area and Pickering West Employment Area)
B 15,600
Employment Growth Not Accommodated in
Employment Areas C = A – B 6,600
Employment Density (jobs per gross hectare) D 28
Employment Area Land Required (gross
hectares) North East Pickering Area E = C / D 235
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xv
Designated Growth Area Employment Area Analysis – Focus on Seaton
In response to recent changes to provincial policy with respect to planning for
Employment Areas as well as evolving industry needs, a key priority for the City of
Pickering G.M.S. is to provide a revised planning framework for the City’s Employment
Areas. As a result of the structural changes in the office real estate market, combined
with revised provincial planning policy which directs Major Office Employment (M.O.E.)
to M.T.S.A.s or other S.G.A.s where frequent transit service is available, the long-term
employment forecast for the Seaton Employment Area by major sector and land use
category has been re-examined.[7] The following key changes have been made:
• M.O.E. forecast for Seaton has been reduced from approximately 2,400 to 500
jobs. This results in a reduction of approximately 15 to 20 gross hectares of
Employment Area land required in the Seaton Employment Area, subject to the
average forecast density assumed in the M.O.E. sector.
• Approximately 500 forecast M.O.E. jobs within the Seaton Employment Area
have been redirected to S.G.A.s in South Pickering where existing office clusters
currently exist. Approximately 1,000 M.O.E. jobs have been recategorized to
work at home employment within Seaton and 400 within South Pickering.
• It is important to note that the city-wide total long-term employment forecast of
93,800 jobs in 2051 remains consistent with Envision Durham.
The revised planning framework for the City’s Employment Areas reflects provincial
direction under section 2.8.2.5. of the P.P.S., 2024, regarding Employment Area
removals. Chapter 8 of this report details the preliminary planning considerations for
Neighborhood 20: Thompson’s Corners, Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige
Employment Node and for Neighborhood 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor (Whites
Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node). It is recommended that all
Employment Areas sites in Seaton identified for consideration for removal are further
reviewed and evaluated by the City in accordance with the recommended criteria
provided in section 8.5 of this report.
[7] Major Office Employment comprises stand-alone office buildings 1,900 sq.m (20,000
sq.ft.) and greater.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE xvi
Policy Recommendations
Based on the results of this G.M.S., the following planning policy updates are
recommended for the O.P.R. to guide future growth in the City of Pickering to the year
2051. These recommendations are discussed in detail in Chapter 9 of this report.
Growth Forecasting Recommendations
• Presentation of population and employment forecasts, and Neighbourhood
Breakdowns
• Housing forecasts
Urban Area Recommendations
• Defining urban area boundaries and phasing of development.
• Urban area boundary expansions
• Greenfield area development densities
• Allocation of growth within urban areas
• Residential growth
Intensification and Strategic Growth Areas Recommendations
• Intensification
• Establishing a hierarchy of strategic growth areas
• Height and density in strategic growth areas
Employment Area Recommendations
• Plan for Employment Areas under the new provincial policy framework.
• Review all lands within the City’s existing Employment Areas to identify and
evaluate sites for removals (if applicable).
• Examine existing Employment Areas, specifically Seaton, for conformity with new
provincial employment policies and the ability to meet the current planned
function.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 1
1. Introduction
1.1 Terms of Reference
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. (Watson), in association with WSP, was retained
by the City of Pickering in 2024 to undertake a Growth Management Strategy (G.M.S.).
The primary purpose of this strategy is to comprehensively assess the city’s long-term
population, housing, and employment growth outlook; residential intensification
opportunities; and urban land needs to the year 2051.
Building on the direction of the new Durham Regional Official Plan (D.R.O.P.), this
review will form a foundational document to the City of Pickering Official Plan Review
(O.P.R.), known as Pickering Forward, by providing key direction with respect to the
following:
• Long-term population, housing, and employment growth forecast for the city and
allocations by planning policy area developed within the context of provincial,
Regional, and local policy, growth trends, as well as economic and demographic
drivers and disruptors. For the purposes of sensitivity testing, three long-term
growth scenarios are explored, including a recommended growth scenario.
• Population, housing, and employment growth allocations by planning policy area,
including:
o Built-up Area (B.U.A.);
o Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.), Northeast Pickering Expansion Area;
and
o Rural Area.
• A residential intensification analysis.
• A Community Area land needs assessment analysis.
• An Employment Area land needs analysis.
• An employment analysis for Seaton, with specific direction provided with respect
to the Employment Nodes within the Seaton Employment Area.
• Planning policy recommendations related to long-term growth management and
monitoring.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 2
1.2 Background
The City of Pickering is experiencing strong population growth and employment. By
2051, the City’s population and employment base is forecast to grow to approximately
256,000 people and 94,000 jobs, respectively. Population growth in Pickering will be
increasingly driven by immigration, which is critical to the sustained economic growth of
the city and the surrounding area. Population growth is an essential component of a
growing and competitive labour force and business community. Population and
employment growth also contributes to the generation of new jobs for local residents
and revenue sources to pay for existing and new municipal services and infrastructure.
While urban growth and economic development can provide many positive impacts, if
not managed adequately, urbanization can lead to significant city-building challenges,
such as, but not limited to, the following:
• Providing housing options for existing and new residents that are affordable and
attainable.
• Increasing transportation options to safely move people and goods throughout
the city.
• Responding to negative environmental impacts of urbanization and addressing
climate change.
• Loss of productive agricultural lands.
• Replacing aging infrastructure and city services.
• Addressing growing inequality.
To address these challenges, it is important that new urban development is planned for
and accommodated in a manner that supports the policy objectives of the City’s Official
Plan (O.P.) and Strategic Plan.[8] Furthermore, it is critical that the amount, type, timing,
and location of development within the City’s priority growth areas, established urban
neighbourhoods, and rural areas is planned in a manner that is well aligned with
housing and employment demand, as well as infrastructure and municipal service
needs.
In addressing the pace of future population and employment growth for the City, it is
important to recognize that it is difficult for the City to reduce population growth
[8] Corporate Strategic Plan | City of Pickering
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 3
pressures. This is because population growth and the associated urban growth
pressures, more broadly across Canada and specifically in the City of Pickering, are
largely controlled by senior government policies and broader macro-economic forces
(i.e., federal immigration policies, provincial and regional job growth, and regional
migration patterns within the Province).
Notwithstanding these broader challenges, the City of Pickering has considerable
control to positively influence its competitive position. In planning for its future, the City
has numerous opportunities on which to build, including a young and highly skilled
workforce; strong, healthy, affordable, and pedestrian-oriented neighbourhoods; a
growing economy centred around technology and innovation; a rich and diverse culture;
demonstrated leadership in environmental sustainability; and a growing desire for
increased urban connectivity.
The City of Pickering O.P.R. represents an opportunity to tackle these significant city-
building issues head-on, asking big questions in preparing for an uncertain future. The
outcome of this process should reflect the city’s values and aspirations for how it wants
to evolve and mature. Ultimately, a key objective for the City of Pickering will be to
accommodate growth and change in a manner that preserves the city’s livability while
embracing development patterns that are sustainable from a triple-bottom-line
perspective (i.e., environmental, financial, and socio-economic). With a clear strategy
for growth management, the City of Pickering can plan for and accommodate urban
development in an efficient and sustainable manner.
As part of the O.P.R., this G.M.S. will inform the policy framework on where and how
the population and employment targets within the Region of Durham Council and
provincially adopted O.P. can be implemented in the City by 2051. In May 2023,
Region of Durham Council adopted a new Regional O.P., “Envision Durham,” which
was approved on September 3, 2024 by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
(M.M.A.H.), with modifications. A decision was made on December 13, 2024 to
approve, without modification, the remaining parts of the D.R.O.P., as adopted,
pursuant to sections 17 and 26 of the Planning Act by By-law 38-2023, with the notice of
the decision issued on December 16, 2024. The O.P. envisions Durham’s growth and
development for 1.3 million residents and 460,000 jobs by 2051, with specific growth
allocations provided for each area municipality.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 4
The City of Pickering O.P.R. will address revised provincial planning legislation and be
consistent with provincial planning policy under the Provincial Planning Statement, 2024
(P.P.S., 2024). It will also align with the D.R.O.P. and with recently completed plans for
the City, with considerations given to recent economic and demographic trends.
Since the release of the Region of Durham Municipal Comprehensive Review (M.C.R.),
as part of Envision Durham, several key factors have contributed to the need to review
the long-term population, employment, and household forecast for the City of Pickering,
including the following:
• Numerous broad changes to provincial planning policy and municipal
governance, which are anticipated to have a direct impact on long-term growth
management for the City of Pickering. These key provincial planning policy
changes are explored in greater detail in Chapter 2.
• Updates to Canadian federal immigration targets for permanent and non-
permanent residents (N.P.R.).
• Several updates (provided annually) to long-range population growth forecasts
prepared by the Ministry of Finance (M.O.F.), including population forecasts for
Durham Region.
• Evolving regional economic and real-estate market trends across the Greater
Toronto and Hamilton Area (G.T.H.A.), Durham Region, and the City of
Pickering.
• Envision Durham: Regional Official Plan, approved by the M.M.A.H., has
introduced 948 hectares of new Community Area lands and 235 hectares of new
Employment Area lands in Northeast Pickering. The Northeast Pickering lands
are re-assessed based on the recent policy changes and new data released.
In accordance with the above, it is necessary to re-examine the City of Pickering’s near-
term and longer-term population, housing, and employment growth forecasts; growth
allocations; urban land needs assessment; and growth management policies. It is
noted that this G.M.S. is to be used to guide the amount, type, timing, and location of
long-term population, housing, and employment growth, urban land needs, phasing of
development for the city, and to provide planning policy recommendations related to
long-term growth management and monitoring. It is noted that the analysis provided
herein presents the best information currently available. This analysis is not to be used
to constrain or set a capacity limit on urban development.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 5
2. Planning Policy Context Influencing Long-Range
Growth Forecasts in Durham Region
This chapter briefly explores the relevant recent changes to provincial planning policy
that are influencing planning decision making and the direction regarding long-range
growth management in the City of Pickering, Durham Region, and the Province of
Ontario.
2.1 Provincial Planning Context
2.1.1 Bill 23
On October 25, 2022, the Ontario government introduced the More Homes Built Faster
Act, 2022 (Bill 23). Following Bill 108 and Bill 109, Bill 23 is part of a long-term strategy
to address anticipated housing demand across Ontario over the next 10 years by
facilitating the construction of 1.5 million homes. Bill 23 received Royal Assent by the
provincial legislature on November 28, 2022. This Bill is intended to increase housing
supply and provide a greater mix of ownership and rental housing options for Ontarians.
Under Bill 23, proposed changes to the Development Charges Act, the Planning Act,
and the Conservation Authorities Act intend to reduce and exempt fees to spur new
home construction and reduce the cost of housing. This includes ensuring affordable
residential units, select attainable residential units, inclusionary zoning housing units,
and non-profit housing developments will be exempt from paying municipal
development charges, community benefits charges, and parkland dedication provisions.
To support the provincial commitment to getting 1.5 million homes built over the next 10
years, Bill 23 introduced sweeping and substantive changes to a range of legislation, as
well as updates to regulations and consultations on various provincial plans and
policies. This identified need for additional housing relates to demand associated with
both existing Ontario residents and newcomers to the province through immigration and
net migration.
It is important to recognize that the municipal housing targets identified in the More
Homes Built Faster Act are based on both existing and future housing needs. A share
of the overall housing need identified through Bill 23 is attributed to a structural deficit in
the province’s existing housing inventory (also referred to as latent housing demand)
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 6
while a portion of the housing need is linked to anticipated population growth over the
next decade. The housing targets are adapted from the Census Division level housing
needs assessment provided in the Ontario’s Need for 1.5 Million More Homes report,
prepared by Smart Prosperity Institute, dated August 2022.[9]
Through the More Homes Built Faster Act, the province selected large and fast-growing
municipalities (29 in total), including the City of Pickering, to prepare Municipal Housing
Pledges to meet these housing targets by the year 2031 with details on how they will
enable/support housing development through a range of planning, development
approvals and infrastructure related initiatives. The province identified that these
housing pledges were not intended to replace current municipal plans and are not
expected to impact adopted municipal population or employment projections
established through a Municipal Comprehensive Review (M.C.R.). It is further noted
that the municipal housing targets do not specify housing form, density, or geographic
location (e.g., greenfield, intensification).
The 10-year housing target for the City of Pickering is 13,000 additional units,
representing about 0.9% of Ontario’s total additional 1.5 million additional housing units
needed over the next decade in accordance with Bill 23. It is important to emphasize
that perceived housing demand established through the More Homes Built Faster Act
does not represent a prescribed minimum forecast that municipalities are required to
achieve. Rather, it establishes housing targets that represent a desired state,
expressed as a policy objective.
2.1.2 Bill 185 and the Provincial Planning Statement, 2024
On August 19, 2024, the Province released the P.P.S., 2024, which replaces the
Provincial Policy Statement, 2020 (P.P.S., 2020) and a Place to Grow: Growth Plan for
the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2019 (the Growth Plan) as an integrated document.
The P.P.S., 2024 came into effect on October 20, 2024, and was released in
coordination with Bill 185, Cutting Red Tape to Build More Homes Act.
A key focus of the P.P.S., 2024 is that it recognizes that the approach to delivering
housing needs and Employment Area land need requirements will vary by municipality
[9] Ontario’s Need for 1.5 Million More Homes. August 2022. Smart Prosperity Institute.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 7
and, as such, moves away from a prescriptive guideline-based approach. The following
summarizes key highlights of the P.P.S., 2024.
Planning for Growth
• Compared to the P.P.S., 2020, the P.P.S., 2024 presents a more flexible horizon
for planning for growth by providing a planning horizon with a minimum of 20
years and a maximum of 30 years. Additionally, it allows for planning of
infrastructure, public service facilities, strategic growth areas, and Employment
Areas to extend beyond this time horizon.[10] As such, this suggests that
municipalities are to designate land to accommodate growth for at least 20 years,
but not more than 30 years with the opportunity to designate additional land
beyond the 30-year time horizon for Employment Areas, strategic growth areas,
and planning for infrastructure.[11]
• The P.P.S., 2024 requires municipalities to consider population and employment
growth forecasts prepared using M.O.F. projections and allows municipalities to
modify these forecasts as appropriate.[12] The use of M.O.F. forecasts is not
meant to replace long-term forecasting by municipalities, but the forecasts are to
be used as a starting place in establishing forecasts and testing the
reasonableness of alternative regional forecasts and area municipal growth
allocations. This approach was carried out for this study.
• According to the P.P.S., 2024, Minister’s Zoning Orders (M.Z.O.s) are to be
treated as “in addition to projected needs” over the planning horizon. In planning
for M.Z.O. lands, the P.P.S., 2024 states that these lands must be incorporated
into the O.P. and related infrastructure plans.[13]
• Since M.Z.O. lands are not tied to an assessment of need, it is understood that,
when planning for these lands, the timing of their buildout is not held to a
targeted minimum or maximum planning horizon. As such, it is recognized that
full development of M.Z.O.s may or may not extend beyond the 30-year
maximum planning horizon set out in the proposed P.P.S., 2024, subject to
anticipated economic growth and real estate market demand within the
municipality and the broader economic region over the horizon of the plan. In
[10] Provincial Planning Statement, 2024, policy 2.1.3, p. 6.
[11] Ibid.
[12] Ibid.
[13] Ibid.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 8
view of this, it is recommended that the timing of development regarding
approved M.Z.O.s should be established through provincial and local phasing
policies, municipal servicing plans, and reviewed through regular monitoring.
• The P.P.S., 2024 introduces the concept of “large and fast-growing
municipalities,” which are listed in Schedule 1 of the P.P.S., 2024. These
municipalities are encouraged to plan for a target of 50 residents and jobs per
gross hectare in designated growth areas.[14] This density target represents a
minimum, and municipalities are encouraged to go beyond these minimum
targets, where appropriate.[15] Furthermore, large and fast-growing
municipalities are to consider watershed planning in planning for storm, sewage,
and water servicing.[16]
• Density targets in the P.P.S., 2024 are noted as minimum standards and
municipalities are encouraged to go beyond these minimum targets, where
appropriate.
• The P.P.S., 2024 provides direction in planning for complete communities. This
direction has been refined from the P.P.S., 2020 and requires that municipalities
plan for an appropriate range and mix of land uses, housing options,
transportation options with multimodal access, employment, public service
facilities and other institutional uses (including schools and associated child care
facilities, long-term care facilities, places of worship, and cemeteries), recreation,
parks and open space, and other uses to meet long-term needs. Furthermore,
municipalities need to ensure that efforts are made to improving access for all
members of the community and to reducing barriers.
Planning for Housing
• Generally unchanged from the P.P.S., 2020, the P.P.S., 2024 still requires
planning authorities to maintain at all times the ability to accommodate residential
growth for a minimum of 15 years through lands that are designated and
available for residential development within the regional market area.[17] It is
noted, however, that the emphasis on intensification and redevelopment in this
regard has been removed. Planning authorities are also required to maintain at
[14] Provincial Planning Statement, 2024, policy 2.3.1.5, p. 8.
[15] Ibid., policy 6.1.13, p. 33.
[16] Ibid., policy 4.2, p. 22.
[17] Ibid., policy 2.1.4, p. 6.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 9
all times, where new development is to occur, land with servicing capacity
sufficient to provide at least a three-year supply of residential units, available
through lands suitably zoned, including units in draft approved or registered plans
within the regional market area.[18]
• The P.P.S., 2024 requires municipalities to establish and maintain minimum
targets for intensification and redevelopment within built-up areas (B.U.A.), based
on local conditions.[19] Furthermore, municipalities are required to keep their
zoning by-laws up to date by establishing minimum densities, heights, and other
standards to accommodate growth and development.[20]
• For the purposes of this analysis, it is recommended that the B.U.A. continues to
be referred to the boundary delineated by the Province in 2006. Although the
term "built-up area" is no longer defined in the P.P.S., 2024, the policies allow
flexibility in how intensification is approached and measured. Based on a review
of policy framework, however, it is appropriate for the City of Pickering to
continue to refer to this geographic area when identifying the location of
intensification areas. Within the B.U.A., the primary focus of intensification will
be in strategic growth areas, including major transit station areas (M.T.S.A.s) and
nodes and corridors, which will contribute to most of the intensification target.
No Significant Policy Change and Approach to Planning for Affordable Housing
• The new P.P.S., 2024 carries forward a similar definition of affordable housing as
established in the P.P.S., 2020. The definition of affordable housing in the
P.P.S., 2024, however, is based on the municipality instead of the regional
market area as defined in the P.P.S., 2020. The definition of affordable housing
was notably missing in the proposed P.P.S., 2023. Additionally, the new P.P.S.,
2024 carries forward the requirement of “establishing and implementing minimum
targets for the provision of housing that is affordable to low- and moderate-
income households.”[21] The new P.P.S., 2024 does not address the issue of
attainable housing, an issue that was also lacking in the P.P.S., 2020.
[18] According to the P.P.S., 2024, upper or single-tier municipality, or planning area, will
normally serve as the regional market area.
[19] Provincial Planning Statement, 2024, policy 2.3.1.4, p. 8.
[20] Ibid., policy 6.1.6, p. 32.
[21] Ibid., policy 2.2.1, p. 7.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 10
Settlement Area Boundary Expansions
• According to the P.P.S., 2024, a Settlement Area boundary expansion (S.A.B.E.)
is allowed at any time and without the requirement of an M.C.R., provided that
the S.A.B.E. meets the criteria established in policy 2.3.2.1. The criteria include
establishing the need to designate and plan for additional land to meet an
appropriate range and mix of land uses, supported by infrastructure and public
facilities, while limiting the impact on agricultural areas. Furthermore, the
S.A.B.E. is to support a phased progression of urban development. Overall, the
policies allow for a simplified and flexible approach for municipalities to undertake
an S.A.B.E.[22]
Planning for Employment
• Major office and major institutional development should be directed to M.T.S.A.s
or other strategic growth areas where frequent transit service is available,
according to the P.P.S., 2024.[23]
• The P.P.S., 2024 includes an updated definition of Employment Area based on
the amendment of the Planning Act on June 8, 2023. The Planning Act was
amended under subsection 1 (1) to include a new, more narrowly scoped
definition of “area of employment.” This definition of Employment Area has been
revised to include only industrial-type employment as a primary use. The
amendment to the Planning Act received Royal Assent as part of Bill 97 on June
8, 2023. The definition change in the Planning Act came into effect on October
20, 2024, in concert with the P.P.S., 2024.
• According to the P.P.S., 2024, municipalities are to assess and update
Employment Areas identified in O.P.s to ensure that this designation is
appropriate to the planned function of Employment Areas.[24]
• The P.P.S., 2024 requires that municipalities designate, protect, and plan for all
Employment Areas in Settlement Areas by:
o planning for the long-term needs of Employment Area uses;
[22] Provincial Planning Statement, 2024, policy 2.3.2, p. 9.
[23] Ibid., policy 2.8.1.4, p. 13.
[24] Ibid., policy 2.8.2.4, p. 14.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 11
o prohibiting residential uses, commercial uses, public service facilities,
other institutional uses, and retail and office uses not associated with the
primary employment use; and
o providing an appropriate transition to adjacent non-Employment Areas to
ensure land use compatibility and economic viability.[25]
• Under the P.P.S., 2024, municipalities are provided with greater control over
Employment Area conversions (now referred to as Employment Area removals)
with the ability to remove lands from Employment Areas at any time. Previously,
under the P.P.S., 2020 and the Growth Plan, municipalities were required to
review changes to designated Employment Areas during an M.C.R. or
Comprehensive Review (C.R). Under the P.P.S., 2024, municipalities are
required to demonstrate that there is an identified need for the removal and that
the land is not required for Employment Area uses over the long term.
Furthermore, municipalities need to demonstrate that the proposed change from
Employment Area to a non-Employment Area use does not undermine the
overall viability of the Employment Area.[26]
• The P.P.S., 2024 requires that all development within 300 metres of Employment
Areas shall avoid, or mitigate, potential impacts on the “long-term economic
viability” of employment uses.[27] This means that when planning for Employment
Areas or other uses in proximity to Employment Areas, municipalities must
ensure there is an appropriate transition between Employment Areas and
sensitive uses like residential uses where necessary. This acknowledges that
the delineation of the Employment Area does not necessarily protect uses on the
edge of the Employment Area which may require separation from sensitive uses.
• While the P.P.S., 2024 requires an appropriate separation between Employment
Area uses and sensitive uses, it also provides the opportunity for manufacturing,
small-scale warehousing, and other industrial uses to be accommodated outside
of Employment Areas where there are no adverse effects to being located near a
sensitive use. It notes that, if there is an opportunity, these uses are to be
encouraged in strategic growth areas and other mixed-use areas where frequent
transit service is available.[28]
[25] Provincial Planning Statement, 2024, policy 2.8.2.3, p. 14.
[26] Ibid., policy 2.8.2.5, p. 15.
[27] Ibid., policy 2.8.1.3, p. 13.
[28] Ibid., policy 2.8.1.2, p. 13.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 12
Planning for Growth in Rural Areas
• Generally unchanged from the P.P.S., 2020, the P.P.S., 2024 indicates that rural
Settlement Areas shall be the focus of growth and development and their vitality
and regeneration shall be promoted.[29] Furthermore, when directing
development in rural Settlement Areas, municipalities are to consider locally
appropriate rural characteristics, the scale of the development, and the provision
of appropriate service levels.[30]
• In prime agricultural areas, permitted uses and activities include agricultural
uses, agriculture-related uses, and on-farm diversified uses based on provincial
guidance, according to the P.P.S., 2024.[31] Compared to the P.P.S., 2020, this
policy has been modified in the P.P.S., 2024 to include provincial guidance.
Removal of Planning Responsibilities for Upper-Tier Municipalities
• A key policy change resulting from Bill 185 that has impacted the City of
Pickering relates to the removal of planning responsibilities for upper-tier
municipalities. This concept of “upper-tier municipalities without planning
responsibilities” and “upper-tier municipalities with planning responsibilities” was
first introduced under the Planning Act as part of Bill 23, the More Homes Built
Faster Act, which was released on October 25, 2023. “Upper-tier municipalities
without planning responsibilities” includes a list of seven municipalities
comprising all the upper-tier municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area (G.T.A.),
plus the County of Simcoe, the Region of Niagara, and the Region of Waterloo.
Bill 185 builds upon this and amends the Planning Act to implement changes to
certain upper-tier municipalities, “upper-tier municipalities without planning
responsibilities.”
• Under Bill 185, the Region of Halton, the Region of Peel, and the Region of York
became “upper-tier municipalities without planning responsibilities” as of July 1,
2024; the Regions of Durham, Waterloo and Niagara have followed in 2025. We
anticipate there will continue to be a strong need for impacted upper-tier
municipalities to address regional growth management coordination efforts (e.g.,
coordination of local municipal growth forecasts, assessment of regional
[29] Provincial Planning Statement, 2024, policy 2.5.2, p. 11.
[30] Ibid., policy 2.5.3, p. 11.
[31] Ibid., policy 4.3.2, p. 23.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 13
infrastructure needs, and review of cross-jurisdictional issues) working with their
area municipalities.
A cohort survival forecast methodology had been utilized to generate the population and
housing forecast through Envision Durham, which establishes the foundation for growth
in the City of Pickering to 2051 (see Appendix A for further details). The P.P.S., 2024
does not require adherence to standard guidelines regarding growth projection and
urban land needs. In place of specific guidelines, the P.P.S., 2024 indicates that the
long-term need for urban lands will be informed by “provincial guidance.”
Notwithstanding these changes to the P.P.S., 2024, long-range demographic and
economic growth forecasts and urban land needs assessments remain a fundamental
background component to the O.P.R. process.
2.2 Envision Durham: Durham Region Official Plan
As previously discussed, according to Bill 23, as of January 1, 2025, the Region of
Durham is designated by the province as an "upper-tier municipality without planning
responsibilities." This does not eliminate the upper-tier planning function entirely;
instead, Durham's eight area municipalities have taken over the authority to approve all
Planning Act decisions, except where specified by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and
Housing (M.M.A.H.). Envision Durham, the new D.R.O.P., is now integrated into the
O.P.s of Durham's eight area municipalities. Each area municipality has the authority to
repeal or amend the D.R.O.P. as it applies to their jurisdiction. [32]
On September 3, 2024, Envision Durham was partially approved with modifications.
However, a decision at that time was deferred on certain matters, including figures,
maps, and policies related to the proposed S.A.B.E. in the Northeast Pickering Area.[33]
The deferral of the S.A.B.E. in the Northeast Pickering Area was due to the review of
the protection for the proposed federal airport site, specifically the impact of flight path
contours on the surrounding area. On December 13, 2024, the Province of Ontario
[32] As reported on the Region of Durham, Envision Durham website:
https://www.durham.ca/en/doing-business/envision-durham.aspx#Approved-Regional-
Official-Plan--Consolidation-December-13-2024, accessed May 1, 2025.
[33] Ibid.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 14
approved all remaining parts of the Envision Durham, including the identified S.A.B.E. in
the Northeast Pickering Area.[34]
Key highlights of Envision Durham include the following:
• Envision Durham offers a policy framework for the area municipalities, covering
policies on agricultural lands, settlement areas, Employment Areas, M.T.S.A.s,
and S.G.A.s. These policies are guided by provincial planning directions and
include key growth management targets, such as forecasts, density targets and
intensification targets.
• As previously noted, the Region of Durham is anticipated to accommodate a
population base of 1.3 million residents and 460,000 jobs by 2051, representing
an almost doubling of the Region’s 2021 population of nearly 725,000 and more
than double its nearly 197,000 jobs. [35] Growth has been allocated by the
Region’s eight area municipalities. Growth allocation to the City of Pickering
includes 251,600 population and 94,000 jobs by 2051. [36] Consistent with
provincial policy direction, growth allocations are considered minimums.
• Through the technical work carried out by the Region of Durham for Envision
Durham, it was determined that the City of Pickering requires a S.A.B.E. of
approximately 950 gross developable hectares of Community Area lands (to
support residential and population-related growth) and approximately 360 gross
developable hectares of Employment Area lands. In total approximately 1,310
gross developable hectares (approximately 3,200 acres) are needed to
accommodate growth over the Envision Durham planning horizon (i.e., 2051).
The S.A.B.E. lands have been identified in Map 1 (Regional Structure) in
Envision Durham. [37] Note that the actual delineation will need to be carried out
[34] Notice of Decision, Region of Durham Official Plan, Northeast Pickering, M.M.A.H.
File No.: 18-OP-237796, Letter prepared by M.M.A.H. Manager of Community Planning
and Development (East) on December 16, 2024.
[35] Envision Durham, Consolidation December 31, 2024, p.9.
[36] Ibid., Figure 2 (Table) – Population, Employment and Household Allocations, p.16.
[37] Derived from the Region of Durham Municipal Comprehensive Review, Community
Area and Urban Land Needs Technical Report; and Durham Region Growth
Management Study (G.M.S.) – Phase 2 Area Municipal Growth Allocations and Land
Needs, 2051 prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. and Urban Strategies,
October 17, 2022.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 15
with further planning by the City (i.e. through Secondary Plans) to determine the
specific land-uses and phasing of the S.A.B.E. lands.
Key growth management targets for the City of Pickering include the following:
• A minimum housing intensification target of 40%;[38]
• A minimum density average of 53 people and jobs per hectare on D.G.A.
lands;[39]
• A minimum density average of 200 people and jobs per hectare within the Urban
Growth Centre (U.G.C.); [40]
• A minimum density of 150 people and jobs per hectare within Regional Centres
(located along the Rapid Transit Corridor); [41] and
• Plan for a minimum density, population, employment and housing targets to
demonstrate achievement of the overall target of at least 150 people and jobs per
gross hectare in the Pickering GO Protected Major Transit Station Area
(P.M.T.S.A.). [42]
While Envision Durham provides a growth management framework for the City's local
O.P. development, Envision Durham was completed before many of the recent changes
in provincial planning direction took place (as previously discussed in section 2.1), such
as those identified in the P.P.S., 2024. These changes include new guidelines for
Employment Areas, particularly Employment Area Removals, which involve
redesignating lands for uses other than those protected for Employment Areas. As a
result, the City will need to consider both Envision Durham and the recent provincial
policy changes in developing the City’s O.P. This report discusses the provincial policy
changes and impacts on planning for growth in Pickering in Chapter 9.
2.3 City of Pickering Official Plan
The current City of Pickering Official Plan (O.P.) was initially adopted in 1997 and has
undergone several amendments since then. The growth forecasts in the current O.P.
[38] Envision Durham, Consolidation December 31, 2024, Figure 9 (Table) –
Intensification Targets, p.91.
[39] Ibid., policy 5.4.5.1, p.113.
[40] Ibid., policy 5.2.23, p.97
[41] Ibid.
[42] Ibid., policy 5.2.23, p.105.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 16
are based on previous technical work conducted by the Region of Durham, which set a
planning horizon extending to 2031. Furthermore, growth management policies do not
reflect the current provincial policy framework. As a result, the City of Pickering is
undergoing an O.P.R. The O.P.R. is referred to as Pickering Forward and the first public
meeting was held in May 2024. This report will provide technical and strategic
recommendations that will inform the City’s O.P.R. process.
The City of Pickering's O.P. includes two major urban areas for growth planning: the
Seaton Urban Area and the South Pickering Urban Area, which consists of a series of
neighborhoods within the southern part of the city. The proposed federal airport site is
also considered with the city’s urban system. It is important to note that as of January
2025, the federal government announced that the Pickering airport would officially not
be going forward. While the government has indicated intent to transfer the majority of
these lands to the Rouge Urban National Park, the future function of the lands is still to
be determined.[43] Growth forecasts are provided for each of the 15 neighborhoods up to
2031. In addition to the urban neighbourhoods, the city has a rural area that includes
agricultural lands, a series of hamlets and other rural lands. The rural area comprises
roughly two-thirds of the City’s total land area. [44] The city’s rural system in the current
O.P. includes lands situated south of the Township of Uxbridge, and north of the C.P.
(Belleville) rail line, excluding Seaton and the federal airport site.
The city's B.U.A. primarily encompasses the South Pickering Urban Area, with the
exception of a small portion (approximately 5 hectares of gross developable land in
Duffin Heights) that lies outside the B.U.A. As a result, the city’s intensification rate
applies to the South Pickering Urban Area. The Seaton Urban Area is largely the city’s
D.G.A., where new neighborhoods are currently being developed. It also serves as the
location for the City's vacant Employment Area lands. Figure 2-1 provides a map that
illustrates the City’s Urban System currently in the O.P. As part of the City’s O.P.R., the
City will need to update its Urban System to include the S.A.B.E. within the Northeast
Pickering Area, as identified in Envision Durham. Chapter 9 provides a series of
recommendations in updating the City’s O.P.
[43] Government of Canada news release: Minister of Transport announces the
Pickering Lands will not be used for a future airport site, January 27, 2025.
[44] City of Pickering Official Plan, p.34.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 17
Figure 2-1
City of Pickering
Urban System Identified in O.P.
Source: City of Pickering Official Plan, Map 2, Pickering’s Urban System.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 18
3. Overview of Macro-Economic and Regional Trends
This chapter summarizes the global, national, provincial, and regional economic trends
that are anticipated to continue to influence the population and employment growth
outlook for Durham Region and the City of Pickering over the next three decades.
3.1 Navigating Increased Uncertainty in a Changing Global
Economy
After several years of resilient global economic growth following the 2020 and 2021
lockdowns during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the global economy is
now facing a mounting number of near-term economic challenges and geo-political
conflicts. These global economic challenges largely relate to unresolved conflicts
associated with the on-going war between Ukraine and Russia; the Israel/Gaza conflict;
rising global trade tensions, particularly with the United States (U.S.); increasing
government, corporate, and consumer debt; and ongoing concerns regarding persistent
inflation.
Collectively, these factors have resulted in heightened global economic uncertainty and
volatility, which has raised the likelihood of an economic recession in the U.S. and
Canada in 2025. In its latest report, the Organization for Economic Co-operation
(OECD) is predicting a softening in their global economic forecast for 2025 and 2026.
Canada’s gross domestic product (G.D.P.) is forecast to decline from 1.5% in 2024 to
0.7% in 2025 and 2026, a notable reduction from the 2.0% predicted in the December
2024 Economic Outlook.[45]
For manufacturing-focused regions such as Southern Ontario, goods-producing sectors
– especially the automotive industry – are being impacted by global disruptions while
also undergoing a shift toward advanced technologies focused on electric vehicle
production. While not a new trend, globalization and technological advancements
continue to shift the economic composition of developed economies from goods
production toward a service-based economy. Since the onset of the pandemic, this
economic shift has increasingly raised fundamental concerns in certain cases regarding
national security, economic trade balances and prosperity, which has further prompted
[45] OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, Steering through Uncertainty, March
2025.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 19
countries to adopt protectionist measures when setting out their near- and longer-term
national economic strategies.
These ongoing structural changes and technological disruptions shaping the global
economy, combined with rising geo-political and trade tension, will require that both
senior and local governments become increasingly agile and responsive to evolving
industry demands and disruptive economic forces, a trend that has been expedited by
the COVID-19 pandemic. These revised near-term economic forecasts and ongoing
disruptions are anticipated to influence the near-term population and employment
growth outlook for Canada, Ontario, Durham Region, and the City of Pickering over the
coming years.
3.2 Evolving Macro-Economic Trends Following COVID-19
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 12, 2020, its
economic effects have been substantial. Employment sectors, including travel, tourism,
hospitality, manufacturing, and energy were hit relatively hard by social distancing
measures. In contrast, knowledge-based sectors adapted well to remote and hybrid
work, often thriving. Changes in social behaviour, including physical distancing, and
increased remote work have led to ongoing economic disruptions, particularly in how
work is done. Additionally, rising trade tensions and geopolitical unrest continue to
highlight vulnerabilities in globalization and supply chains, which were severely
disrupted during the peak of the pandemic.
Following a sharp national economic recovery in 2020 due to COVID-19 policy
measures, federal economic support, fiscal stimulus, and vaccine rollouts, the Canadian
economy experienced significant economic growth in 2021 and 2022. Despite this
recovery, growing macro-economic headwinds, market volatility, increased uncertainty,
and reduced confidence are placing downward pressure on the near-term economic
growth outlook at the national, provincial, and regional levels.
Persistently high global and national inflation levels following COVID-19 required an
aggressive response by central banks, leading to sharp increases in interest rates and
quantitative tightening measures.[46] As of mid 2024, both the Bank of Canada and the
[46] Quantitative tightening is a process whereby a central bank reduces the supply of
money circulating in the economy by selling financial assets, mainly government bonds.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 20
U.S. Federal Reserve began reducing interest rates in response to declining inflation
rates and slowing economic growth. The Bank of Canada has cut its overnight lending
rate multiple times since 2024, reducing the policy rate to 2.75% as of March 2025.
Similarly, the U.S. Federal Reserve has also implemented interest rate cuts to support
economic growth. [47] As of February 2025, Canada’s inflation rate was at 2.6%, a
notable increase from 1.9% during the previous month but down from its peak of 8.1%
in June 2022.[48]
While most recent trends in inflation and interest rates are more favourable to Canadian
residents, businesses, and investors (relative to the previous two years), their effects
often lag and vary considerably at the regional level. Furthermore, despite these more
favourable conditions regarding inflation and interest rates, wage and earnings growth
have not kept with the pace of rising costs for goods and services over the past several
years, with housing and food costs representing key stressors for most Canadian
families. It is also important to recognize that ongoing geopolitical conflicts and U.S.
protectionist policies (i.e., tariffs) will likely limit the effectiveness of the Bank of Canada
monetary policy in controlling inflationary pressures even under conditions of slowing
global and national economic growth.
As of 2025, rising public sector and household debt in Canada remains a key economic
concern, largely due to pandemic response measures, alongside increasing household
debt levels, mainly driven by significant housing price appreciation in Canada’s major
urban centres. Since peaking in February 2022, the national housing market has shown
signs of cooling, with notable declines in both sales and price growth in recent years,
driven by higher mortgage rates relative to pandemic conditions. It is noted, however,
that trends vary widely by region, and housing affordability (both ownership and rental)
has been steadily eroded for the past decade across most Canadian economic regions.
As such, recent trends towards lower interest rates are likely to have a limited impact on
improving housing affordability, unless lower borrowing fees are met with a sustained
decline in average housing prices and rents.
While these immediate concerns highlight potential setbacks to the country’s economic
recovery, the longer-term outlook for Canada’s economy and housing market remains
positive. Continued investments in infrastructure and technology, along with a resilient
and growing labour market, will be required to drive national economic growth and
[47] https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/10/fad-press-release-2024-10-23/
[48] Consumer Price Index February 2025, March 28, 2025, Statistics Canada
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 21
competitiveness. Strong leadership and coordination across all levels of government
will be needed to navigate these complexities carefully in the coming months and years
ahead.
3.3 COVID-19 and the Changing Nature of Work
In addition to its broader impacts on the economy, COVID-19 is also accelerating
changes in work and commerce as a result of technological disruptions which were
already taking place prior to the pandemic. Businesses are increasingly required to
rethink the way they conduct business with an increased emphasis on remote work
enabled by technologies such as virtual private networks, virtual meetings, cloud
technology, artificial intelligence, and other remote work collaboration tools. These
disruptive forces continue to broadly impact the nature of employment by place of work
and sector, and have a direct influence on commercial, institutional, and industrial real-
estate space needs.
As of 2016, it was estimated that approximately 9% of the City of Pickering workforce
was working from home on a full-time basis. This estimate increased to 13% in 2024,
excluding hybrid workers, who are captured as residents with a usual place of work.
From a municipal planning and urban development perspective, it is important to
consider the impact of hybrid workers when assessing non-residential space needs,
particularly in the office sector.
In addition to work at home employment, there are workers within the City of Pickering
who have no fixed place of work (N.F.P.O.W.).[49] The percentage of workers within the
city who reported as having N.F.P.O.W. was approximately 13% in 2016 and about 12%
in 2024.[50] It is anticipated that the percentage of people who work from home on a full-
time and part-time basis, as well as those who do not have a fixed place of work, will
remain relatively high across the City of Pickering over the long term, driven by
[49] Statistics Canada defines N.F.P.O.W. employees as “persons who do not go from
home to the same workplace location at the beginning of each shift. Such persons
include building and landscape contractors, travelling salespersons, independent truck
drivers, etc.”
[50] Work at home and N.F.P.O.W. employment derived from 2016 and 2021 Statistics
Canada Census data, with 2025 data estimated by Watson & Associates Economists
Ltd. It is noted that the 2021 Census data may not be reliable due to the timing of
enumeration coinciding with COVID-19 lockdowns.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 22
continued growth in knowledge-based employment sectors and technological
advancement.
3.4 Provincial Economic Outlook within the Broader
Canadian and Global Context
3.4.1 Ontario’s Population Growth Outlook within the Canadian
Context
Canada’s population has experienced significant growth in recent years. During the
recovery period from COVID-19, immigration targets were raised in Canada primarily in
response to labour force demands faced by the country. Immigration accounts for
almost 100% of Canada’s labour force growth and nearly 80% of its population growth.
As a result of these increased immigration targets, Canada welcomed 471,800 and
485,000 N.P.R.s in 2023 and 2024, respectively. With population growth outpacing
G.D.P. growth, the G.D.P. per capita has trended lower and has been recently trending
well below pre-pandemic levels.[51] The key challenges to growth in Canadian G.D.P.
per capita include declining labour productivity and a rising unemployment rate for
recent immigrants, which has increased from 9.5% to 12.6% over the past five years.[52]
In response to these challenges, the federal government reduced its immigration targets
by 21% in 2024 compared to the previous targets in 2023. More specifically, the federal
government has lowered the previous near-term immigration target of 500,000 people
per year to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026, and 365,000 in 2027 (refer to Figure 3-1).
The federal government has also announced that it will reduce the percentage of N.P.R.
[51] Statistics Canada, Economic and Social Reports, Canada’s Gross Domestic Product
Per Capita Perspectives on the Return to the Trend report by Carter McCormack and
Weimin Wang, April 24, 2024.
[52] TD Economic Reports, Canadian Employment (July 2024), Canada’s job market
softens further in July, published August 9, 2024.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 23
from 7.3% of the national population to 5.0% by the end of 2026.[53],[54],[55] These
modifications address the changing needs of the country by easing pressures on
housing, infrastructure, and social services. These changes are anticipated to have a
further downward impact on future population growth in Canada, including Ontario, over
the next few years.[56] Based on 2024 data and looking forward through 2025 and
beyond, despite the target cuts, immigration levels to Canada and Ontario are
anticipated to remain strong, exceeding pre-pandemic averages between 2015 and
2019.
[53] Non-permanent residents are defined by Statistics Canada as persons from another
country who have been legally granted the right to live in Canada on a temporary
resident permit, along with members of their family living with them. These residents
include foreign workers, foreign students, the humanitarian population such as
refugees, and other temporary residents.
[54] The N.P.R. share as of Q3 2024 has been derived from Statistics Canada Tables
17-10-0009-01 and 17-10-0121-01. There are 3,002,090 N.P.R. out of 41,288,599
residents in Canada.
[55] The N.P.R. national population target of 5% has been derived from the Government
of Canada 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
[56] Government of Canada News Release, October 24, 2024.
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/2024/10/government-
of-canada-reduces-immigration.html
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 24
Figure 3-1
Admission of Permanent Residents in Ontario and Canada
Historical (2015 to 2024) and Forecast (2025 to 2027)
Note: Figures have been rounded and may not add precisely.
Source: 2015 to 2024 derived from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (I.R.C.C.)
data; 2025 to 2027 federal targets from Government of Canada's Immigration Levels Plan for
2025-2027; and Ontario target estimated based on historical share of about 45% of the
Canadian Permanent Residents Admissions from 2018 to 2023, by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
With respect to the provincial growth outlook, the most recent 2024 M.O.F. population
projections show a decrease in the growth outlook for Ontario to 22.1 million by 2051.
This reduction is largely attributed to the federal government announcement to reduce
the national percentage of N.P.R. over the coming years (refer to Chapter 6, Figure 6-1
further details). When examining the immigration levels required over the long term to
achieve the 2024 M.O.F. projections for Ontario, these revised projections appear
ambitious. The 2024 M.O.F. population forecast continues to project a higher long-term
population growth rate for the Province compared to historical trends experienced over
the past 20 years, with an annual growth rate of 1.3% between 2021 and 2051. This
translates into an annual population increase of 242,600 people. Comparatively, the
level of annual population growth forecast for Ontario under the 2024 M.O.F. forecast is
65% higher than the level of population growth achieved between 2001 and 2021.[57]
[57] The M.O.F. released an interim update to the Ontario population projections in May
2025, reducing the 2051 population to 20.8 million people.
271,800 296,400 286,500
321,100 341,200
184,600
406,000 437,100
471,800 483,600
395,000 380,000 365,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
(Est)
2026
(Est)
2027
(Est)
Ad
m
i
s
s
i
o
n
o
f
P
e
r
m
a
n
e
n
t
R
e
s
i
d
e
n
t
s
Year
Ontario Rest of Canada
Source: 2015 to 2024 derived from Immigration, Refugees,and Citizenship Canada (I.R.C.C.)April 22, 2025 data. 2024 to 2027 federal targets from Government of Canada's
Immigration Levels Plan for 2024 to 2026 and 2025 to 2027, and Ontario target estimated based on historical share of about 44% of the Canadian Permanent Residents Admissions
from 2018 to 2024, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 25
3.4.2 Provincial Gross Domestic Product Trends and Near-Term
Forecast
Similar to the broader Canadian economy, the economic base of Ontario, as measured
by G.D.P. output, has shifted from goods-producing sectors (i.e., manufacturing and
primary resources) to services-producing sectors over the past several decades. This
shift has largely been driven by G.D.P. declines in the manufacturing sector, which were
accelerated as a result of the 2008/2009 global economic downturn. It is noted,
however, that these G.D.P. declines in the manufacturing sector have started to show
signs of stabilization over the past few years, both prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and
through the more recent economic recovery.
Over the past decade, the Ontario export-based economy experienced a rebound in
economic activity following the 2008/2009 economic downturn; however, this recovery
was relatively slow to materialize with levels sharply rebounding by 2014, as illustrated
in Figure 3-2. This economic rebound was partially driven by a gradual recovery in the
manufacturing sector, fueled by a lower-valued Canadian dollar combined with the
gradual strengthening of the U.S. and Canadian economy.[58]
The Canadian and Ontario economy deeply contracted by 5.1% in 2020 during the
onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, before sharply rebounding by 5.2% in 2021.
Throughout 2022, the Ontario economy continued to expand and grew by 3.9%, while
the overall Canadian economy grew by 3.8%. BMO Capital Markets has forecast that
G.D.P. growth will decline to -0.1% in Ontario and 0.7% overall for Canada in 2025. For
2026, an annualized G.D.P. growth rate of 0.7% is forecast for Ontario and 1.0% for all
of Canada, suggesting a significant downturn in economic growth in the near term,
largely driven by global economic uncertainty in response to current U.S. tariffs and
protectionist measures.[59]
[58] Valued at approximately $0.72 U.S. as of May 2025.
[59] Provincial Economic Outlook, BMO Capital Markets, March 28, 2025.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 26
Figure 3-2
Province of Ontario and Canada
Annual Real Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.) Growth, Historical (2006 to 2024),
and Forecast (2025 to 2026)
Note: The years 2025 and 2026 are forecasts by BMO Capital Markets Economics. The year
2024 is a forecast for the Province of Ontario.
Source: Derived from BMO Capital Markets Economics, Provincial Economic Outlook, April 17,
2025, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
3.5 Regional Labour Force and Population Growth Trends
3.5.1 Regional Labour Force Growth Trends
Figure 3-3 summarizes total labour force and unemployment rate trends for the Toronto
Census Metropolitan Area (C.M.A.). Labour force data is not available for the City of
Pickering, but it is captured in the broader Toronto C.M.A. Key observations include the
following:
• Since 2011, the Toronto C.M.A. has experienced relatively steady labour force
growth, coupled with a gradually declining unemployment rate, until the COVID-
19 pandemic in early 2020 caused a notable spike in unemployment.
• Following the pandemic recovery from 2020 to 2021, the labour force rates in the
Toronto C.M.A. steadily improved, reaching new record highs in 2024.
• Notwithstanding these positive economic trends, the pace of labour force growth
has recently slowed and the unemployment rate has steadily increased since
2.8%
2.2%
0.5%
-2.5%
3.0%
2.5%
1.7%2.0%
2.5%
1.1%1.4%
3.0%
1.8%1.9%
-5.2%
5.0%
3.8%
1.5%1.5%
0.7%1.0%
2.4%
2.0%
0.0%
-3.5%
3.2%
1.8%1.5%1.3%
2.7%2.5%2.6%2.8%
2.1%2.1%
-5.1%
5.2%
4.1%
1.7%1.5%
0.1%
0.7%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 (f)2026 (f)
An
n
u
a
l
R
e
a
l
G
.
D
.
P
.
G
r
o
w
t
h
(
%
)
Canada Ontario
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 27
June 2023 following measures by the Bank of Canada in early 2022 to tighten
monetary conditions.[60]
• Accordingly, the Toronto C.M.A. real-estate market, including the City of
Pickering, has softened since 2023 relative to trends experienced during the
height of the pandemic.
• Looking forward, the medium- to longer-term economic outlook for the Toronto
C.M.A. remains very positive. Regional economic conditions, however, are
anticipated to remain relatively weaker and more volatile over the short term (i.e.,
the next 12 to 18 months) driven by current geo-political conditions and U.S.
protectionist policies, as discussed in sections 3.1 and 3.2.
Figure 3-3
Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (C.M.A.)
Labour Force Trends, 2001 to Year-To-Date 2025
Note: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey and Census labour force statistics may differ.
Source: Toronto C.M.A. employed labour force and unemployment rate from Statistics Canada
Table 14-10-0459-01, Table 14-10-0385-01, and Table 14-10-0096-01. Province of Ontario
unemployment rate from Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0327-01. Derived by Watson &
Associates Economists Ltd.
[60] Since March 2022, the Canadian prime interest rate increased from 2.45% to a peak
of 7.2% in 2024. The Canadian prime interest is now 4.95% as of April 22, 2025. In
addition, the Bank of Canada introduced quantitative tightening measures in 2022, a
process whereby the Bank of Canada reduces the supply of money circulating in the
economy by selling its accumulated assets, mainly bonds.
2,535
2,764
2,929
3,156
3,412 3,227
3,409
3,739 3,694 3,721
6.3%
6.7%
9.5%
8.6%
6.9%
5.9%
11%
6.3%
8.6%
6.3%6.4%
9.2%8.0%
6.5%
5.6%
9.8%
5.7%
7.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Un
e
m
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t
R
a
t
e
(
%
)
Em
p
l
o
y
e
d
L
a
b
o
u
r
F
o
r
c
e
(
0
0
0
s
)
Year
Toronto C.M.A. Employed Labour Force (Annual)Toronto C.M.A. Employed Labour Force (Monthly)
Toronto C.M.A. Unemployment Rate Ontario Unemployment Rate
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 28
3.5.2 Provincial Population Growth Trends
Figure 3-4 illustrates the population growth in the Province by sub-regional area. Key
observations include the following:
• The share of population growth outside the G.T.H.A. steadily increased over the
past three Census periods from 2006 to 2021. Most notably, during the most
recent Census period (i.e., 2016 to 2021), the share of total provincial population
growth for all areas outside the Greater Golden Horseshoe (G.G.H.) increased
from 12% between 2006 and 2011, to 17% from 2011 to 2016, and to 33%
between 2016 and 2021.
• Except for the 2021 to 2024 period, the share of provincial population growth in
the G.T.H.A. has declined in recent years, falling from 78% between 2006 and
2011, to 64% from 2011 to 2016, and then to 43% between 2016 and 2021.
• These historical trends in provincial population growth suggest that while the
G.T.H.A. will continue to experience a large share of provincial population
growth, this population share is anticipated to continue to shift outward into the
G.G.H. Outer Ring[61] and the remaining sub-areas of Ontario.
[61] The G.G.H. Outer Ring is the Region of Central Ontario located immediately outside
the G.T.H.A., extending from Haldimand County in the southwest, to Simcoe County in
the north, and to Peterborough County in the northeast.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 29
Figure 3-4
Province of Ontario by Regional Area
Annual Population Growth, 2001 to 2024
Notes: Population includes net Census undercount. G.T.H.A. means Greater Toronto and
Hamilton Area; G.G.H. means Greater Golden Horseshoe; G.G.H. Outer Ring is the Region of
Central Ontario located immediately outside the G.T.H.A., extending from Haldimand County in
the southwest, to Simcoe County in the north, and to Peterborough County in the northeast.
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0152-01, summarized by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
3.5.3 Population Growth Outlook for the Greater Toronto Area
Building on Figure 3-4, Figure 3-5 illustrates population growth trends within the
G.T.H.A. by single-tier and upper-tier municipality. Between 2001 and 2006, York and
Peel Region, combined, accounted for 68% of the G.T.H.A.’s population growth;
however, the share of population growth for these two Regions declined to 26%
between 2021 and 2024. Conversely, Durham Region, Halton Region, and the City of
Hamilton have collectively experienced an increasing share of population growth over
the past three Census periods, most notably during the recent 2016 to 2021 period. It is
noted that during the most recent 2021 to 2024 postcensal period, a significant increase
in the share of population growth occurred within the City of Toronto, representing half
of the total G.T.H.A. population growth, largely driven by increased population growth
levels associated with N.P.R. in the City of Toronto during this time period.
67%78%64%43%
55%19%10%19%24%
19%
14%
12%17%
33%
26%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2001-2006 2006 - 2011 2011 - 2016 2016 - 2021 2021 - 2024
Po
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
G
r
o
w
t
h
Period
G.T.H.A.G.G.H. Outer Ring Rest of Ontario
152,800
427,300
193,200
122,800120,000
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 30
Figure 3-5
Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area
Historical Annual Population Growth, 2001 to 2024
Note: Population includes net Census undercount. Figures have been rounded.
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0152-01, summarized by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
3.5.4 Long-Term Outlook for Durham Region
There are two main components of population growth,[62] natural increase (births less
deaths) and net migration, which is further broken down into three broad categories:
• International Net Migration – represents international immigration less
emigrants, plus net N.P.R.s;
• Interprovincial Net Migration – comprises in-migration less out-migration from
other Canadian provinces/territories; and
• Intraprovincial Net Migration – includes in-migration less out-migration from
elsewhere within the Province of Ontario.
[62] The smallest geographic dissemination of this information is available at the Census
Division level (i.e., Durham Region).
11%9%10%15%9%
33%28%20%19%
9%5%20%30%23%
50%
35%27%23%21%
21%
13%13%
12%13%
5%
3%2%5%10%
5%
102,500 93,800
78,100 83,000
235,900
0
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
180,000
210,000
240,000
270,000
2001 to 2006 2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016 2016 to 2021 2021 to 2024
An
n
u
a
l
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
G
r
o
w
t
h
Period
Durham York Toronto Peel Halton Hamilton
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 31
Figure 3-6 illustrates the components of population growth within Durham Region from
2001 to 2024. Key observations are as follows:
• Population growth from net migration has been largely driven by intraprovincial
and international migration from 2001 to 2024.
• International net migration levels increased steadily during the 2016 to 2021
period, followed by a sharp increase between 2021 and 2024.
• The share of intraprovincial net migration to Durham Region has progressively
decreased from 2001 to 2024; however, it has increased in absolute terms.
Intraprovincial net migration to Durham Region has largely been from the City of
Toronto and York Region, accounting for 56% and 16%, respectively.[63]
• Durham Region experienced positive growth in natural increase, driven by the
Region’s relatively high share of young adults and children, most notably in the
southern area municipalities of Durham Region.
Looking forward, both international and intraprovincial net migration levels are forecast
to remain strong across Durham Region over the long term. It is important to recognize,
however, that when considering recent changes to federal immigration targets, it is
anticipated that annual growth in international net migration for Durham Region will
slow, relative to recent annual growth rates achieved between 2021 and 2024.
[63] Derived from custom order Statistics Canada Intraprovincial Migration Flow data by
Census Division.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 32
Figure 3-6
Durham Region
Components of Population Growth, 2001 to 2024
Note: Population includes net Census undercount. Figures have been rounded and may not
add up precisely.
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0139-01 and Table 17-10-0140-01, summarized by
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
3.5.5 Observations
Over the past several decades, the provincial economy has been steadily shifting away
from goods-producing sectors and increasingly moving towards services-producing and
knowledge-based sectors. As a result of these continued structural changes occurring
in the macro-economy, it is important to recognize that the trends mentioned within this
chapter will generate both positive and disruptive economic impacts related to
employment growth, local business investment, and labour force demand. These
disruptive forces are also anticipated to have long-term impacts on non-residential
space requirements and population growth patterns, which should be considered and
monitored on an on-going basis when planning for non-residential development across
Ontario, including the Region of Durham and the City of Pickering.
While the longer-term outlook for the regional economy and housing market remains
positive, the immediate concerns highlighted in this chapter point to potential setbacks
to regional economic growth over the near term. Despite the near-term economic
25%33%30%17%11%
9%16%18%34%
51%
-3%-10%-11%-7%-10%
68%61%63%
56%
48%
Historical Average
12,100
-3,000
2,000
7,000
12,000
17,000
22,000
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021 2021-2024
Av
e
r
a
g
e
A
n
n
u
a
l
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
Period
Natural Increase Net International Migration
Net Inter-Provincial Migration Net Intra-Provincial Migration
11,700
14,500
9,200
21,700
9,500
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 33
headwinds discussed in this chapter, the longer-term economic and housing outlook for
the Region of Durham and the City of Pickering remains very positive.
With its growing concentration of service-producing and goods-producing industries,
existing and planned regional transportation infrastructure, numerous post-secondary
institutions within a one-hour radius and incubators, access to skilled labour, shovel-
ready greenfield urban land supply, vibrant urban centres and a high quality of life, the
Region of Durham and the City of Pickering benefit from being located at the heart the
G.G.H. economic region. Accordingly, the City of Pickering is well-positioned for steady
economic growth over the medium to long term.
As the employment base continues to grow within the City of Pickering and the
surrounding commuter-shed, the economy is also anticipated to diversify, generating a
range of new live/work and commuting opportunities. Accordingly, the City of Pickering
will continue to be a desirable location for working-age residents to live, leading to
steady population growth throughout the city. Over the next 30 years, the City’s local
employment base is also anticipated to benefit from the regional economic expansion
anticipated within neighbouring municipalities. As such, raising the economic profile of
the region by leveraging the economic opportunities and strengths of the broader
regional economy should represent a key long-term growth and economic development
strategy for the City of Pickering.
The regional economic and demographic trends discussed above and summarized in
this chapter support higher net migration rates (increased international migration to the
City and Region). Driven by the strong long-term population growth outlook for the
Region of Durham and province as a whole, combined with steady local demand for a
broad range of attainable and affordable housing options (both grade-related in the
forms of low- and medium-density housing, and high-density), the long-term population
growth outlook for the City of Pickering is anticipated to be higher than growth levels
achieved over the past several decades. Further details regarding the City’s long-term
population and employment growth outlook as well as approach to accommodating
anticipated residential and non-residential development are discussed throughout the
remaining chapters of this report.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 34
4. Economic, Demographic, and Housing Trends
within the City of Pickering and the Surrounding
Market Area
This chapter examines the recent development trends in Durham Region and, more
specifically, the City of Pickering. For additional details regarding historical household
trends, please see Appendix B.
4.1 Population Growth Trends
Figure 4-1 summarizes incremental population growth in Durham Region by area
municipality over the 2001 to 2024 historical period. Key observations are as follows:
• While Durham Region has experienced steady population growth over the past
20 years, increasing by approximately 199,800 persons from 2001 to 2021,
incremental population growth rates in the Region declined between 2001 and
2016 before rebounding during the 2016 to 2021 period.
• The Towns of Ajax and Whitby accounted for the largest shares of growth in the
Region in all historical periods averaging 28% and 27%% of historical population
growth between 2001 and 2021, respectively. The latest preliminary postcensal
data, however, indicates that Oshawa accounted for the greatest share of the
Region’s population growth between 2021 and 2024 at 37%.
• During the 2016 to 2024 period, the City of Pickering accounted for
approximately 15% of population growth across Durham Region, up from 3%
from 2001 to 2016, driven by steady development in both greenfield and
intensification areas.
• In accordance with recent residential building permit activity between 2021 and
2024 (new units only), the City of Pickering represented approximately 23% of
anticipated new residential housing construction (as measured in terms of
number of housing units) in Durham Region.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 35
Figure 4-1
Durham Region
Population Growth by Area Municipality, 2001 to 2024
Note: Population includes net Census undercount. Figures have been rounded and may
not add up precisely.
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0155-01; summarized by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
Figure 4-2 summarizes total net migration by major age group for the City of Pickering.
A further discussion regarding forecast demographic trends by major age group for the
City is provided in Chapter 6. Key observations are as follows:
• Over the past 15 years, people between 35 and 44 years of age and under 19
represent the highest concentration of newcomers to the City of Pickering. In the
most recent 2016 to 2021 Census period, these two age groups, combined,
accounted for 65% of total positive net migration to the City.
• Young adults aged 20 to 34 experienced strong migration from 2016 to 2021,
after a period of net out-migration from 2006 to 2016.
• The population aged 55 to 74 has consistently experienced net out-migration in
the City of Pickering.
30%45%27%14%10%
15%14%
20%18%12%
44%
24%
17%20%
22%
5%
16%
26%
31%
37%
1%
0%8%
15%
15%
0%-2%
1%
2%
1%
2%
0%
0%
0%
2%
3%
3%1%
1%
1%
11,300
8,500 7,800
12,300
21,700
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2001 to 2006 2006 to 2011 2011 to 2016 2016 to 2021 2021 to 2024
An
n
u
a
l
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
G
r
o
w
t
h
Period
Town of Ajax Municipality of Clarington Town of Whitby
City of Oshawa City of Pickering Township of Brock
Township of Scugog Township of Uxbridge
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 36
• These trends regarding net migration by major age group are expected to
continue over the 2021 to 2051 planning horizon.
Figure 4-2
City of Pickering
Net Migration by Major Age Group, 2006 to 2021
Note: Population includes net Census undercount. Figures have been rounded and may not
add up precisely.
Source: Derived from Statistics Canada, Table 17-10-0152-01, summarized by Watson &
Associates Economists Ltd.
4.2 Socio-Economic Trends and Housing Affordability
4.2.1 Housing Market Price Trends for the City of Pickering and the
Broader Market Area
Average new detached home sales for Durham Region between 2020 and 2024 by
price point are presented in Figure 4-3 in comparison to other upper-tier/single-tier
municipalities in the G.T.H.A. Key findings are as follows:
-3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
0-19
20-34
35-44
45-54
55-74
75+
Total Net-Migration
Ag
e
G
r
o
u
p
2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 37
• During the past four years, 58% of new single detached homes absorbed in
Durham Region have been priced over $1 million. This percentage is lower than
the upper-tier/single-tier G.T.H.A. municipalities of York Region, Halton Region
and City of Toronto.
• One-third of single detached homes absorbed in Durham Region were under
$800,000, which is the highest among the upper-tier/single-tier G.T.H.A.
municipalities, except for the City of Hamilton.
• The absence of single-detached housing prices under the $1 million price point is
placing constraints on low-density housing growth across most of the G.T.H.A.
• Durham Region has relatively more affordable opportunities for grade-related
(i.e. low- and medium-density) housing relative to the majority of the G.T.H.A.,
resulting in more housing options geared to new and existing families.
Figure 4-3
Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (G.T.H.A.)
Absorbed Single Detached Units by Price Range, 2020 to 2024
Source: Derived from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation housing data, by Watson
& Associates Economists Ltd.
Figure 4-4 illustrates the average re-sale price for housing by type over the last decade
for the City of Pickering. Key observations include:
0%0%1%
23%
3%2%2%10%
24%
5%
31%
10%
10%
16%
14%
8%
36%15%
9%
3%
79%
58%51%
63%
28%
97%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
York Region Durham
Region
Peel Region Halton
Region
City of
Hamilton
City of
Toronto
%
o
f
u
n
i
t
s
G.T.H.A. Upper / Single-Tier
$1,000,000 +
$800,000 to $999,999
$650,000 to $799,999
$500,000 to $649,999
< $500,000
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 38
• All housing types experienced strong price appreciation from 2019 to 2022. A
series of increases to the prime interest rate, from 2.45% in November 2022 to
7.2% in July 2023, has since cooled housing prices from their peak in 2022.[64]
• From 2019 to 2024, the re-sale price of a single detached dwelling increased by
45% from $858,000 to $1,242,000, townhouses increased by 47% from $605,000
to $890,000, and condominiums increased by 37% from $437,000 to $599,000.
• The average benchmark price of a single-detached home in Pickering is between
11% to 29% lower relative to the City of Toronto, York Region, Peel Region, and
Halton Region. Townhouse prices are up to 34% lower, and apartment prices
are up to 27% lower.[65]
Figure 4-4
City of Pickering
Average Re-sale Prices for Households by Type, 2015 to 2024
Note: Housing prices are seasonally adjusted.
Source: Derived from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, 2015 to 2024 data, by
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2024.
[64] The prime interest rate as of April 23, 2025, is 4.95%.
[65] Comparator housing prices derived from TREB Market Watch Report, March 2025 in
relation to single-tier and upper-tier municipalities’ total average prices.
$645,000
$753,000
$885,000 $832,000 $858,000
$992,000
$1,285,000
$1,382,000
$1,277,000 $1,242,000
$380,000
$504,000
$604,000 $599,000 $605,000
$692,000
$849,000
$978,000 $911,000 $890,000
$296,000
$384,000 $418,000 $438,000 $437,000
$507,000
$579,000
$688,000 $626,000 $599,000
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
$1,400,000
$1,600,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Av
e
r
a
g
e
P
r
i
c
e
Year
Single Detached Freehold Townhouse Condo Apartment
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 39
4.2.2 Housing Affordability Trends for the City of Pickering
Figure 4-5 summarizes average household income, average re-sales, and average
monthly rental rate in the City of Pickering from 2011 to 2021. The average annual rate
of household income growth increased by 2% from 2011 to 2016 and by 3% from 2016
to 2021. The average annual growth rate for re-sale housing units increased at a rate
that outpaced household income by nearly five times from 2011 to 2016 and by four
times from 2016 to 2021. The rate of increase for rents was comparable to the rate of
increase for household income from 2011 to 2021. In accordance with the above,
household income levels within the City of Pickering have not kept pace with housing
prices, which has eroded housing affordability in the ownership market over the past
decade.
Figure 4-5
City of Pickering
Housing Prices and Household Income
Note: Price (re-sale) increase includes the sale prices of single detached, townhouse/row,
and apartment property types.
Source: Derived from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation Rental Market Survey,
Statistics Canada Census Data, 2011 to 2021, and listing.ca, by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
Figure 4-6 summarizes annual household income required to purchase different
housing structure types in the City of Pickering between 2014 and 2023. Across all
housing density types, the household incomes required to afford an average-priced
home have increased between 2.4 and 2.5 times over the past 10 years.
11%
12%
2%
4%
2016-2021 Annual
Average Rate of
Increase
Household Income
3%
2011-2016 Annual
Average Rate of
Increase
Household Income
2%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2011-2016 2016 - 2021
An
n
u
a
l
R
a
t
e
o
f
I
n
c
r
e
a
s
e
(
%
)
Period
Average Price (Re-Sale)Average Rental Rate Average Household Income
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 40
These trends in housing affordability for the City of Pickering will continue to generate
demand for a broader range of housing options by structure type and tenure. Providing
broader market choice in housing and affordability is an increasingly important
consideration to accommodate a diverse range of newcomers by age and household
income who are anticipated to contribute to the ity’s growing population base.
Figure 4-6
City of Pickering
Housing Prices and Household Income
Note: Price (re-sale) increase includes the sale prices of single detached, townhouse/row,
and apartment property types and assumes a 25-year mortgage and 10% downpayment.
Source: Derived from Durham Region Association of Realtors data by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
4.3 Recent Residential Development Trends
4.3.1 City of Pickering Residential Building Permit Trends
Figure 4-7 summarizes total residential building permits (new units only) by structure
type between 2011 and 2024 within the City of Pickering. Key findings are as follows:
• The City has issued an average of approximately 680 residential building permits
per year related to new residential dwellings, with the average rate of activity
steadily increasing over the 2011 to 2024 period.
• Historically, development activity has been largely dominated by low-density
units; however, since 2015, the City has experienced an increase in medium-
105,800 105,800 94,800
220,700
150,000 134,100
345,700
247,800
202,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Single Detached Freehold Townhouse Condo Apartment
An
n
u
a
l
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
In
c
o
m
e
R
e
q
u
i
r
e
d
(
$
)
Housing Mix
2014 2019 2024
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 41
and high-density developments which have largely driven the recent increase in
building permit activity.
• The number of building permits issued in the City of Pickering increased during
the height of the pandemic between 2021 and 2023, peaking at 2,433 units in
2023 of which 52% were associated with high-density dwellings. As of 2024, the
total number of building permits issued (new units only) has moderated to 1,552
units, of which high-density dwellings totalled 690 units, representing a 46%
decrease from the number of high-density units issued in 2023.
• It is noted that the number of pre-construction sales for high-density
condominiums has significantly declined in the City of Pickering since 2023,
primarily due to higher lending rates and a slowing provincial/regional economy
since 2022. Figure 4-8 summarizes pre-construction high-rise condominium
sales for the City of Pickering between 2011 and 2025 Q1. These market
conditions in the local condominium market in Pickering are reflective of broader
market trends currently being experienced in the broader G.T.H.A. market.
Figure 4-7
City of Pickering
Housing Growth by Structure Type, 2011 to 2024
[1] Includes single and semi-detached houses.
[2] Includes row townhouses, back-to-back townhouses, and apartments in duplexes.
[3] Includes stacked townhouses, and bachelor, 1-bedroom, and 2-bedroom+ apartment
units.
[3] Includes self-contained living accommodations such as apartments and small residential
units that are located on a property with a separate main residential unit.
Source: City of Pickering building permit data summarized by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
611
346 498 335 406 387
640
1,233
505 621
1,281 1,105
2,433
1,552
439
677
1,593
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
An
n
u
a
l
N
e
w
R
e
s
i
d
e
n
t
i
a
l
U
n
i
t
s
fr
o
m
B
u
i
l
d
i
n
g
P
e
r
m
i
t
A
c
t
i
v
i
r
y
Year
Low Density¹Medium Density²High Density³
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 42
Figure 4-8
City of Pickering
High-Rise Apartment Unit Sales, 2011 to 2025 Q1
Source: Derived from Altus Data Studio data, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
4.3.2 City of Pickering Census Housing Trends by Tenure
Figure 4-9 illustrates historical housing growth by tenure in the City. Key observations
are as follows:
• As of 2021, 85% of housing units are owner-occupied and 15% are renter-
occupied in the City of Pickering. [66] The City has a lower share of renter-
occupied households than the Province-wide share of 31%.
• The share of renter-occupied households in Pickering has been steadily
increasing from less than 5% of all new occupied households between 2001 and
2006, to 43% between 2016 and 2021.
• The 15 to 44 age group has the highest share of primary household maintainers
in renter-occupied housing units.
[66] Based on 2021 Census Profile data.
21 43 14 81 52
218
28
544
375
41
304
869
1055
323
32
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Q1
Hi
g
h
R
i
s
e
A
p
a
r
t
m
e
n
t
U
n
i
t
s
Year
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 43
Figure 4-9
City of Pickering
Housing Growth by Tenure, 2001 to 2021
Source: Derived from Statistics Canada Census data, 2001 to 2021, by Watson &
Associates Economists Ltd.
4.4 Recent Non-residential Development Trends
4.4.1 Local Employment Trends by Sector
The City of Pickering has a diverse employment base consisting of services-producing
and goods-producing sectors, as illustrated in Figure 4-10. The largest sector in the
City is the commercial/population-related, which accounts for 35% of its total
employment. This is followed by the industrial sector at 29%, and the institutional sector
at 11%. Work at home and N.F.P.O.W. occupations also comprise a notable share of
the city’s employment, contributing to one in four jobs. Pickering is also home to a
number of primary jobs.
96%76%66%58%
5%24%
34%
43%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021
Ho
u
s
i
n
g
U
n
i
t
G
r
o
w
t
h
b
y
T
e
n
u
r
e
Period
Owner-Occupied Renter-Occupied
1,275
2,505
1,590
1,110
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 44
Figure 4-10
City of Pickering
Total Employment by Sector, 2024
Note: Figures have been rounded and may not add precisely.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
4.4.2 City of Pickering Non-Residential Development Activity by
Sector
Over the 2011 to 2024 period, the City of Pickering averaged 284,000 sq.ft. (26,400
sq.m) of non-residential development activity annually, as summarized in Figure 4-11.
Over half (57%) of non-residential development has been accommodated in the
industrial sector, approximately one-third (32%) in the commercial sector, and 11% in
the institutional sector. Since 2021, industrial development activity in the City has
strengthened compared to the years from 2013 to 2020.
Commercial/
Population
Related
35%
Industrial
29%
Work at Home
13%
N.F.P.O.W.
12%
Institutional
11%
Primary
<1%
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 45
Figure 4-11
City of Pickering
Annual Non-Residential Development Activity, 2011 to 2024
Note: The non-residential development activity (sq.ft.) metric contains new construction and
additions/expansions. Barns, greenhouses, and parking structures have been excluded
from this analysis, as they do not generate a significant amount of employment growth.
Figures have been rounded.
Source: Derived from the City of Pickering non-residential building permit data from 2011 to
2024, summarized by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
278,000
363,000
316,000
199,000
35,000
102,000 93,000
149,000
71,000
593,000
204,000
596,000
290,000
687,000
Historical Average:
284,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
No
n
-Re
s
i
d
e
n
t
i
a
l
De
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t
(
s
q
.
f
t
.
)
Year
Industrial Commercial Institutional
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 46
5. City of Pickering Intensification Analysis
5.1 Purpose
WSP was engaged by the City of Pickering to support the broader growth analysis
being undertaken by Watson, by assessing supply opportunities for residential
intensification in the City. This chapter outlines WSP’s methodology for conducting this
analysis and summarizes the results and conclusions of this analysis.
Through its Envision Durham project, Durham Region undertook an exercise to identify
or forecast the number of residential units that could be accommodated within the City’s
S.G.A.s, inclusive of Pickering City Centre, the Pickering GO Station M.T.S.A., and the
Kingston Road Corridor/Brock Mixed-Use Node. This work was completed in 2021 and
informed the growth scenarios that were used in the D.R.O.P. Given that several years
have passed since this work was completed and the development landscape has
changed significantly during that time, it is necessary to update these supply forecasts.
This intensification analysis does not involve planning for a certain number of housing
units to be accommodated in any particular area but is focused on identifying the
capacity of these areas to accommodate intensification. The capacity is based on the
existing development pipeline in Pickering and development trends being observed
elsewhere.
This intensification analysis serves two functions: to support the growth scenario being
put forward in this report, including the intensification rate within that scenario, and to
inform policy options and recommendations related to growth management and
intensification for the updated Pickering O.P.
5.2 Objectives
The objectives of the intensification analysis were to:
• Extrapolate current development trends in Pickering and similar contexts across
“soft” sites in the City’s S.G.A.s to establish a “business as usual” scenario
comprising certain assumptions for density of development that was reflective of
current development trends; and
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 47
• Using those assumptions, determine the number and mix of residential units that
can potentially be supplied in the City’s S.G.A.s if those areas were fully built out
in the business-as-usual scenario.
5.3 Methodology
The methodology for this intensification analysis was developed following a review of
the Housing Intensification Study Technical Report (H.I.S.T.R.) and the Employment
Strategy Technical Report (E.S.T.R.) completed as part of Durham Region’s G.M.S. and
Land Needs Analysis, as well as the adopted D.R.O.P. WSP’s methodology for
identifying intensification supply is described below:
1. The study area for the exercise was first confirmed as lands within S.G.A.s in
Pickering identified by the Region of Durham for Pickering. This includes the
combined Pickering City Centre/Pickering GO M.T.S.A., Kingston Road Corridor,
and Brock Mixed-Use Node.
2. WSP analysed changes to provincial legislation and policies since the completion
of the H.I.S.T.R. that could impact intensification potential in the City’s S.G.A.s
(e.g., changes to the parkland conveyance provisions in section 42 of the
Planning Act).
3. A comprehensive review of the development pipeline in the study area was
completed, including all proposed, approved, and under construction
development. This review did not include development in the pre-application
consultation stage. Data was aggregated from city-provided development data,
then confirmed against most up-to-date development applications, including:
• Site plan applications;
• Ontario Land Tribunal decisions; and
• Official Plan Amendments (O.P.A.)/Zoning By-law Amendments/Plan of
Subdivision/Plan of Condominium applications.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 48
A jurisdictional scan was also performed to gather information on development
applications in similar S.G.A.s as those located in Pickering, in other
municipalities in the G.G.H. Comparable S.G.A.s reviewed included:
• Newmarket Urban Centres: The Town of Newmarket has completed a
Secondary Plan for its Centres (i.e., S.G.A.s), which include the
Newmarket Centre Urban Growth Centre (U.G.C.) and the surrounding
intensification corridors. These lands are similar to the Kingston Road
corridor and City Centre in Pickering (i.e., large anchor mall and a variety
of low-density commercial uses).
• Downtown Milton U.G.C.: Milton has a slightly larger population than
Pickering (132,979 vs. 99,186 in 2021), but the identified U.G.C. in Milton
has similar existing land uses to Pickering City Centre in the form of low-
density development and large swathes of surface parking. The Town has
completed a secondary plan for the Downtown Area and a subsequent
mobility hub/M.T.S.A. study that identify building heights and floor space
index (F.S.I.).
• Richmond Hill Centre: Richmond Hill has a much larger population than
Pickering; however, the land use context of the Richmond Hill Centre
U.G.C. is similar to the Pickering S.G.A.s and other examples above, with
low-density commercial and employment uses and significant surface
parking.
• Midtown Oakville: Like Pickering, the boundaries of this U.G.C. also
contain a GO transit station, and it has a similar development profile (low-
density retail, large amounts of surface parking).
• Downtown Burlington/Burlington GO M.T.S.A.s: In June 2024,
Burlington adopted an O.P.A. and Community Planning Permit System to
implement land use changes in its three M.T.S.A.s (Burlington GO,
Aldershot GO, and Appleby GO) as well as the Downtown Burlington
U.G.C.
• Dundas Street Corridor, Mississauga: Dundas Street runs east-west
across the entirety of the City of Mississauga and is the planned located of
the Dundas Bus Rapid Transit (B.R.T.) currently in planning and design by
Metrolinx.
• Viva Blue Corridor, York Region: Portions of the VIVA Blue B.R.T.
corridor in the Cities of Vaughan and Markham were examined.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 49
For both the updated development pipeline and the jurisdictional scan, the
following metrics were tracked for all development applications in the relevant
S.G.A., to inform our understanding of current development trends:
• Number and type of residential units (broken down by single detached,
semi-detached, traditional townhouse, stacked townhouse, and multi-unit;
• Gross site area of the proposed development;
• Net site area of the proposed development, removing any conveyances of
land to a public authority, including parkland dedication, road and/or trail
allowances, and natural heritage/hazard lands);
• Units per hectare (based on both the gross and net site areas);
• Gross to net takeout factor (i.e., the proportion of the gross site area
conveyed);
• Residential and non-residential gross floor area;
• F.S.I., where available; and
• Heights of each building in the proposed development.
4. Based on the data collected through the previous task, WSP determined the
median building height and corresponding density (measured in units per net
hectare) being sought through development applications in M.T.S.A.s and B.R.T.
corridors, as well as a gross-to-net takeout factor that could be applied to the
gross site area of a given development parcel.
5. “Soft sites” were identified in the City Centre, Kingston Road Corridor, and Brock
Mixed Node. These soft sites are properties that could conceivably support
intensification through redevelopment or infill but have not yet been the subject of
a development application. The soft sites were confirmed with City staff input.
Using the assumptions for median building height and density developed in Step 4,
WSP determined a forecast unit count for the soft sites identified in Step 5. These
forecasts, along with the up-to-date development pipeline in the City’s S.G.A.s,
represents the intensification potential for the S.G.A.s.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 50
5.4 Study Area (Step 1)
The City’s S.G.A.s are areas in Pickering that were identified in the D.R.O.P. for higher
rates of growth through intensification and or redevelopment. They comprise the
following:
• The Pickering City Centre, which is identified as a U.G.C. in the D.R.O.P. and
also as an M.T.S.A.
• Kingston Road between City Centre and the city’s western boundary, and Brock
Road from Kingston Road south to Highway 401. These S.G.A.s roughly align
with the Kingston Corridor and the Brock Mixed Use Node, which have been
identified by the City in its current O.P. via O.P.A. 38. Kingston Corridor will make
up a segment of the future Durham-Scarborough B.R.T.
5.5 Provincial Changes (Step 2)
Since the Region completed the H.I.S.T.R. in 2021, several key changes have been
made to provincial legislation and policy that needed to be considered in this
intensification analysis. Table 5-1 outlines key changes and their potential impact on
intensification in the City’s S.G.A.s.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 51
Table 5-1
Key Provincial Change Drivers
Change Driver Change Impact on
Intensification Potential
Bill 23
The maximum parkland
conveyance municipalities can
require using the alternative rate
is now to 10% of the gross site
area for lots of 5 hectares or
less, and 15% of the gross site
area for lots of more than 5
hectares.
Directly results in less parkland
conveyance per residential
development; needs to be
accounted for in takeout/gross to
net lot factor.
The alternative parkland
dedication rate is reduced from
1 hectare/300 units to 1 hectare/
600 units
Directly results in less parkland
conveyance than under the
1 hectare/300 alternative rate;
however, for most residential
developments, 1 hectare/600
units would still result in a higher
conveyance than the 10%/15%
cap, so this change is relatively
non-consequential.
Municipalities are now required
to permit up to three residential
units on a lot in the primary
dwelling (or two in the primary
dwelling and one in an
accessory building).
No expected effect on S.G.A.
intensification.
Could increase rate of gentle
intensification in established
neighbourhoods.
Municipalities are prohibited
from requiring more than one
parking space per additional
residential unit (A.R.U.).
No expected effect on S.G.A.
intensification.
Could increase rate of gentle
intensification in established
neighbourhoods.
Municipalities are prohibited
from setting a minimum size for
an A.R.U.
No expected effect on S.G.A.
intensification.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 52
Change Driver Change Impact on
Intensification Potential
Could increase rate of gentle
intensification in established
neighbourhoods.
Affordable, attainable, not-for-
profit, and A.R.U.s are
exempted from parkland
dedication requirement (not yet
enacted).
Difficult to determine, but likely
little to no effect on
intensification rates. Should
large sites be redeveloped with
substantial amounts of these
types of housing, the potential
for parkland conveyance could
be reduced.
Bill 185
Prohibition of parking minimums
in Protected M.T.S.A.s.
Little expected effect on unit
count, as resident parking is
typically provided underground
in most new developments.
Provincial
Planning
Statement
(2024)
The P.P.S., 2020 and the
Growth Plan for the Greater
Golden Horseshoe were
repealed and replaced by a
shorter, more streamlined
Provincial Planning Statement
(P.P.S., 2024). The P.P.S.,
2024, carries forward most of
the P.P.S., 2020, and certain
concepts from the Growth Plan.
This includes M.T.S.A.s but
does not include U.G.C.s.
The provincial planning
framework through the P.P.S.,
2024 no longer identifies
U.G.C.s, which previously
included the Pickering City
Centre); however, the in-effect
D.R.O.P. still identifies a U.G.C.
for the City Centre with a density
target of 200 people and jobs
per hectare.
The definition of “area of
employment” in the Planning Act
and in the P.P.S., 2024, has
been changed to exclude
commercial and institutional
uses, including standalone office
uses.
While this change does not
directly impact S.G.A.s, with the
removal of office as a permitted
use in Employment Areas, there
may be an increase in
development interest for office
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 53
Change Driver Change Impact on
Intensification Potential
uses in S.G.A.s, which could
affect supply potential.
A new policy in the P.P.S.
directs that those employment
uses which do not pose an issue
of compatibility are encouraged
to be located in S.G.A.s.
While in theory this new policy
may result in the locating of
compatible manufacturing or
warehousing uses in S.G.A.s,
these uses would likely be
incorporated into mixed-use
buildings, similar to the expected
approach for commercial or
office uses. Thus, it would not
be expected that they would
substantially impact the
residential intensification
potential of the S.G.A.s.
5.6 Development Pipeline and Jurisdictional Scan and
Analysis (Step 3)
As noted previously, WSP collected data on all active and approved development
applications in Pickering’s S.G.A.s, as well as in certain comparable S.G.A.s in other
municipalities in the G.G.H. Certain overall trends were observed and are described
below. These trends were the basis of the assumptions used to determine the
intensification potential of the S.G.A. soft sites.
• As of the writing of this report, there are approximately 26,200 proposed new
residential units in the City Centre, Kingston Road Corridor, and Brock Mixed-
Use Node S.G.A.s, at various development approval stages.
• In both Pickering’s S.G.A.s and in the S.G.A.s reviewed in the jurisdictional scan,
proposed development is predominantly high-density residential mixed-use,
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 54
typically in the form of podium-and-point-tower, with commercial retail uses on
the ground floor.
• With the proposed developments in Pickering’s S.G.A.s, there are 66 towers, 12
developments with towers of 30 storeys or taller, and six major developments of
1,000 residential units or more.
• Few non-residential developments (e.g., office buildings) are proposed in the
areas observed.
• Along the B.R.T. corridors in both Pickering and elsewhere, there are a small
number of proposed developments that propose townhouses or stacked
townhouses, but the vast majority of proposed residential units are apartments.
• Most proposed developments do not include on-site parkland conveyances,
indicating that the proponents are offering off-site parkland or cash-in-lieu of
parkland, as allowed under section 42 of the Planning Act.
• On smaller development sites (less than a hectare in size), there is little to no
conveyance for road allowances.
Based on the data collected in Step 3, WSP was able to identify specific development
trends that could be used to forecast unit counts for Pickering’s S.G.A.s. WSP focused
on three factors: building height (measured in storeys), net site density (measured in
residential units per net hectare), and takeout factor.
Figure 5-1 illustrates the range of proposed building heights in the Pickering City Centre
and comparable U.G.C.s/M.T.S.A.s. While the median building height in other
municipalities is approximately 20 storeys, in Pickering the median height is
approximately 30 storeys. Additionally, Pickering has several proposed towers in the
taller outliers of over 50 storeys.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 55
Figure 5-1
Proposed Building Heights (U.G.C.s/M.T.S.A.s)
Source: Derived by WSP.
Figure 5-2 illustrates the range of proposed building heights in the Kingston Road
Corridor/Brock Mixed Use Node and comparable BRT corridors. Similar to U.G.C.s/
M.T.S.A.s, Pickering is seeing taller proposed buildings in these S.G.A.s than the
median in other areas.
Figure 5-2
Proposed Building Heights (BRT Corridors)
Source: Derived by WSP.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 56
Figure 5-3 illustrates the range of net densities (in units per hectare) in the Pickering
City Centre and comparable U.G.C.s/M.T.S.A.s. This box-and-whisker graph shows
that while there are certain outliers (the dots), median net density (the line in the box) for
developments in Pickering is significantly higher than in other municipalities.
Figure 5-3
Range of Net Densities Proposed in Pickering City Centre Versus Other
U.G.C.s/M.T.S.A.s
Source: Derived by WSP.
Figure 5-4 illustrates the range of net densities (in units per hectare) in the Kingston
Road Corridor/Brock Mixed Use Node and comparable B.R.T. corridors. Unlike the City
Centre, densities in Pickering are comparable to other municipalities.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 57
Figure 5-4
Range of Net Densities Proposed in Kingston Road/Brock Road Versus Other Corridors
Source: Derived by WSP.
Figure 5-5 illustrates the range of gross-to-net takeout factor in the Pickering City
Centre and comparable U.G.C.s/M.T.S.A.s. As noted above, the takeout factor
indicates the percentage of the gross site area that is to be conveyed to the city or other
public authority. In both contexts, the median takeout factor for proposed developments
is less than 10%.
Figure 5-5
Gross to Net Site Factor in Pickering U.G.C./M.T.S.A. Versus Other U.G.C.s/M.T.S.A.s
Source Derived by WSP.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 58
Figure 5-6 illustrates the range of gross-to-net takeout factor in the Kingston Road
Corridor/Brock Mixed Use Node and comparable B.R.T. corridors. For both contexts,
while there are certain outliers (the dots) with high takeout factors, the takeout factor for
most proposed developments is similarly low to the U.G.C.s/M.T.S.A.s.
Figure 5-6
Gross to Net Site Factor in Kingston Road Corridor/Brock Mixed Use Node Versus
Other Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Corridors
Source: Derived by WSP.
5.7 Assumptions for Soft Site Analysis (Step 4)
Using the data summarized above, WSP was able to develop assumptions for building
height, net density, and takeout factor to apply to soft sites in the City’s S.G.A.s. This
will help to establish a business-as-usual case with respect to development trends in
height and density.
5.7.1 Building Height and Net Density
Within the Pickering City Centre, a typical height of 30 storeys was assumed for new
large-scale developments. Based on the observed correlation of building height to net
density of approximately 30 units per hectare per storey, this translates to an
assumption of 900 units per hectare in the City Centre.
Within the Kingston Road Corridor and Brock Mixed Use Node, there are two distinct
contexts. The Brock Mixed Use Node and the south side of Kingston Road have similar
contexts (large sites typically not directly adjacent to residential neighbourhoods), while
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 59
the north side of Kingston Road has typically smaller sites adjacent to residential
neighborhoods. Thus, a building height of 20 storeys and a net density of 600 units per
hectare was assumed for the south side of Kingston Road and the Brock Mixed Use
Node, while a building height of eight storeys and a net density of 160 units per hectare
was assumed for the north side of Kingston Road.
5.7.2 Takeout Factor
Determining an appropriate takeout factor for soft sites was critical to a reliable forecast
of the net developable area of a given site, and thus the assumed number of residential
units that site could support. As illustrated above, the median takeout factor observed
on a site-by-site basis in both Pickering and the jurisdictional scan was low. When
forecasting intensification potential for the entirety of the City's S.G.A.s, however, the
need for parkland must be taken into consideration. WSP and the city determined that
the best way to account for these parkland needs was to apply an assumed 15%
conveyance to each site. This assumption reflects that while not every soft site will
meet the threshold for a 15% conveyance under the provisions of Section 42(3.3.) of the
Planning Act, a certain portion of the aggregate lands in the City’s S.G.A.s will need to
be acquired for parkland (through conveyance or purchase) to service the increased
residential population.
This assumed parkland conveyance, along with an assumed 5% conveyance for rights-
of-way or road allowances, results in an assumed 20% takeout factor.
5.8 Soft Site Selection (Step 5)
To determine developable soft sites in the City’s S.G.A.s, WSP used a similar approach
as the Region. This included removing the following:
• Sites with active development applications or ongoing construction of approved
development;
• Sites with development completed since 2000; and
• Sites with active civic or institutional uses (e.g., City Hall, fire stations, libraries,
churches, schools, and community centres).
Certain publicly owned sites (e.g., Pickering GO station parking garage) have still been
identified as soft sites. Furthermore, sites with existing multi-unit developments (i.e.,
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 60
apartment buildings) have been excluded, except where large infill opportunities exist.
Assumptions will be applied to the developable vacant portions of those sites.
In the Kingston/Brock Road Corridor, only sites directly fronting the Corridor were
selected.
Figure 5-7 through Figure 5-10 illustrate the selected soft sites for the City Centre,
Kingston Road Corridor, and Brock Mixed Use Node.
Figure 5-7
City Centre Soft Sites
Source: WSP.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 61
Figure 5-8
Kingston Road Soft Sites (Altona Road to Whites Road)
Source: WSP.
Figure 5-9
Kingston Road Soft Sites (Whites Road to City Centre)
Source: WSP.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 62
Figure 5-10
Brock Mixed Use Node Soft Sites
Source: WSP.
5.9 Intensification Potential (Step 6)
After completing the selection of soft sites, WSP applied the assumptions developed in
Step 5 to generate a total number of potential units, if the current development trends
were to be applied to the entirely of the City’s S.G.A.s. Table 5-2 illustrates our findings.
Table 5-2
Residential Intensification Potential in the City of Pickering’s
Strategic Growth Areas (S.G.A.s)
S.G.A. Pipeline Intensification Combined
City Centre 12,531 33,225 45,756
Brock Node 2,927 10,147 13,074
Kingston Road 10,403 15,535 25,938
Total Units 25,861 58,907 84,768
Source: Derived by WSP.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 63
5.10 Conclusions
These estimates illustrate that the intensification supply potential in the City’s S.G.A.s
for high-density residential units (i.e., apartments) is substantial, and that the amount of
high-density growth through intensification identified in the preferred growth scenario for
Pickering can be accommodated.
It is important to note that the estimated supply of residential units via intensification, as
mentioned above, represents the intensification potential of the Pickering S.G.A.s if
every developable site were to be developed according to the trends currently observed
in the City and elsewhere in the G.G.H. This estimate is not tied to a specific time
horizon, nor is it intended to represent any policy direction on the part of the city.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 64
6. City of Pickering Long-Term Planning, Housing and
Employment Growth
This chapter discusses the long-range population, housing, and employment growth
forecast for the City of Pickering to the year 2051. It also assesses opportunities for the
City to accommodate a range of intensification targets and greenfield housing demand
through three long-range growth scenarios, which are further explored in subsection
6.5.3. As part of this G.M.S., the long-term growth forecast for Pickering has been
based on a detailed assessment of the City’s long-term growth outlook within the
context of growth trends for the Province of Ontario, the G.T.H.A. and Durham Region
over the next several decades. This forecast builds on the Region of Durham M.C.R.
(Envision Durham), as previously discussed in section 1.2.
6.1 Approach to Long-Term Growth Forecast for the City of
Pickering
Figure 6-1 illustrates how the population across Ontario has changed over the past 20
years and how the Province is forecast to grow to the year 2051 in accordance with the
most recent 2024 M.O.F. population projections. Key observations are as follows:
• Historically, the Province of Ontario grew at a rate of 1.1% between 2001 and
2021, averaging approximately 147,300 persons per year.
• Since 2020, the population projections for Ontario have steadily increased with
each annual update, except for the most recent 2024 projection.
• In the most recent 2024 M.O.F. projections for the Province, the population has
been downwardly adjusted relative to the 2023 M.O.F. projections, primarily due
to recent reductions in federal immigration targets for N.P.R., as previously
discussed. It should be noted that the 2024 M.O.F. population projections do not
account for the most recent reductions to the Canadian federal immigration
targets provided in the fall of 2024.
• Under the most recent 2024 M.O.F. forecast, by 2051, Ontario is expected to
reach 22.1 million people. Under this most recent forecast, the Province is
expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.3% or 242,600 people per year.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 65
Comparatively, the population of Ontario grew at an annual pace of 145,000
people per year between 2001 and 2021.[67]
Figure 6-1
Province of Ontario
Ministry of Finance Projections, 2019 to 2024
Note: Population includes net Census undercount. Figures have been rounded.
Source: Historical data from Statistics Canada Census, 2001 to 2021, and Ministry of
Finance projections from Summer 2019 to Fall 2024 releases, derived by Watson &
Associates Economists Ltd.
Over the past several decades, the G.T.H.A. and the Greater Ottawa Region have
experienced the highest annual rate of population growth within the Province of Ontario.
The G.T.H.A. represents the economic powerhouse of Ontario and the centre of a large
portion of the economic activity in Canada. The G.T.H.A. is also economically diverse,
with most of the top 20 traded industry clusters throughout North America having a
strong presence in this region. The industrial and office commercial real-estate markets
within the G.T.H.A. are significant, having the third and sixth largest inventories,
respectively, in North America.
[67] The M.O.F. released an interim update to the Ontario population projections in May
2025, reducing the 2051 population to 20.8 million people.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 66
Future population and employment growth within Durham Region, including the City of
Pickering, is strongly correlated with the growth outlook and competitiveness of the
G.T.H.A. regional economy. As previously noted, however, since 2011 and more
notably during the latest Statistics Canada Census period (2016 to 2021), the share of
Ontario’s population growth has been increasingly concentrated outside the G.T.H.A., in
the G.G.H. Outer Ring, Eastern Ontario, and Southwestern Ontario. As previously
noted, the City of Toronto experienced a sharp increase in population growth during the
COVID-19 peak between 2021 and 2023 related to N.P.R. The longer-term growth
patterns experienced between 2001 and 2021, however, are expected to continue over
the forecast period and are reflected in the 2024 M.O.F. Reference Scenario.
Accordingly, it is important to ensure that the long-term population forecasts for Durham
Region and the City of Pickering are not overstated within this evolving regional growth
context.
It is also important to note that while near-term population growth rates (2021 to 2023)
have been strong across most sub-regions of the Province, international migration
levels associated with N.P.R. are anticipated to slow considerably across Ontario in the
near term, particularly in the G.T.H.A. This is driven by recent announcements from the
federal government to reduce the national N.P.R. population share from 7.3% in 2024 to
5.0% of the total population by the end of 2026 (refer to subsection 3.5.2).[68]
Figure 6-2 presents the reference population forecasts for the G.T.H.A. since 2019, in
accordance with the M.O.F.[69] Key highlights include the following:
• Historically, the G.T.H.A. has grown at an annual average rate of 1.3%, which is
higher than the province as a whole.
• Similar to the Province of Ontario, since 2020 the M.O.F. projections for the
G.T.H.A. have been steadily increasing, with the exception of the latest M.O.F.
2024 projections.
[68] The N.P.R. share as of Q3 2024 is derived from Statistics Canada, Tables 17-10-
0009-01 and 17-10-0121-01. There are 3,002,090 N.P.R. out of 41,288,599 residents.
The N.P.R. national population target of 5% is from the Government of Canada 2025-
2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
[69] Based on Fall 2024 M.O.F. projections, the G.T.H.A. is expected to reach 11.3
million residents by 2051, an annual growth rate of 1.3%.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 67
• In accordance with the 2024 M.O.F. projections, between 2021 and 2051, the
G.T.H.A. is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.3%, reaching a population of
11.3 million by 2051.
• Comparatively, the Growth Plan, 2019 forecast for the G.G.H. (A Place to Grow:
Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2019) projects that the G.T.H.A.
is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.3%, reaching 11.2 million people by
2051, which is generally consistent with the 2024 M.O.F. projections.[70]
• While it is recognized that the 2024 M.O.F. projections for the G.T.H.A. as a
whole are ambitious, based on our review the Region of Durham, Region of
Halton, and the City of Hamilton appear to offer the greatest opportunity to
exceed their respective M.O.F. forecasts. This is because opportunities exist
within these municipalities to accommodate a broader range of residential
development by structure type, price point, and tenure within developed areas,
planned greenfield areas and potential expansion areas (where applicable).
[70] As of October 20, 2024, the Growth Plan is no longer in effect.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 68
Figure 6-2
Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area
Ministry of Finance Projections, 2019 to 2024
Notes: Population includes net Census undercount. Figures have been rounded. G.G.H.
means Greater Golden Horseshoe.
Source: Historical data from Statistics Canada Census, 2001 to 2021, and Ministry of
Finance projections from Summer 2019 to Fall 2024 releases, and from Greater Golden
Horseshoe: Growth Forecast to 2051 Technical Report (August 26, 2020), derived by
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Figure 6-3 compares the 2024 M.O.F. Reference Scenario to the Growth Plan, 2019
forecast for Durham Region. Key observations include the following:
• Between 2001 and 2021, Durham Region grew at an average annual rate of
1.6%, which is approximately 10,000 people per year during this time period.
• The 2024 M.O.F. Reference Scenario projects that Durham Region will grow at
an annual growth rate of 1.4% from 2021 to 2051, which is lower than its
historical growth over the last two decades and the former Growth Plan, 2019
forecast for the G.G.H. growth rate of 2.0%;
• By 2051, Durham Region is expected to reach 1.1 million people under the 2024
M.O.F. Reference Scenario, which is approximately 186,100 people lower than
the Growth Plan, 2019 forecast for the G.G.H.
5,810,000
6,320,000
6,790,000
7,180,000
7,600,000
11,010,000
10,290,000
9,870,000
10,850,000
11,400,000
10,625,000
11,304,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
11,000,000
12,000,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
To
t
a
l
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
Year
Historical Ministry of Finance 2019
Ministry of Finance 2020 Ministry of Finance 2021
Ministry of Finance 2022 Ministry of Finance 2023
Ministry of Finance 2024 G.G.H. Growth Forecast (Reference Scenario)
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 69
• In accordance with our review of regional growth trends and the long-term growth
potential for Durham Region, it is our opinion that the 2024 M.O.F. forecast for
Durham Region is very conservative. Accordingly, it is our opinion that the
former Growth Plan, 2019 population forecast for Durham Region, as currently
embraced in the D.R.O.P., remains appropriate for long-range planning
purposes.
Figure 6-3
Durham Region
Projection Comparison, 2001 to 2051
Notes: Population includes net Census undercount. Figures have been rounded. G.G.H.
means Greater Golden Horseshoe; M.O.F. means Ministry of Finance.
Source: Historical derived from Statistics Canada Census, 2001 to 2021, and Ministry of
Finance Projections from Fall 2024 release, and Greater Golden Horseshoe: Growth Forecast
to 2051 Technical Report (August 26, 2020), by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
6.2 Near-Term Population Growth Trends in the City of
Pickering, 2021 to 2026
Figure 6-4 illustrates the postcensal estimates for the City of Pickering and the near-
term population forecast based on the D.R.O.P., developed as part of Envision
528,000
585,000 627,000 666,000
728,000
797,000
889,000
986,000
1,087,000
1,193,000
1,296,000
823,000 877,000
934,000
991,000
1,049,000
1,110,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
To
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Historical G.G.H. Growth Forecast to 2051 (Reference Scenario)2024 M.O.F. Reference Scenario
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 70
Durham.[71] Based on the D.R.O.P., the population for the City of Pickering is forecast
to grow at an annual rate of 3.8% per year between 2021 and 2026, reaching 125,100
people by 2026. As of 2024, the postcensal estimate for the City of Pickering is
113,400 people, representing an additional 9,800 people since the 2021 Census.
According to our near-term population estimates, the City is tracking relatively close to
the 2024 postcensal estimate, and is anticipated to track closely to the 2026 population
forecast identified under Envision Durham, driven by strong residential construction. As
previously noted in section 4.3, pre-construction levels for condominium apartments
have decreased considerably since 2023, which suggests that high-density residential
construction activity across Durham Region will moderate over the next year or two, in
comparison to recent development activity experienced over the past four years.
Figure 6-4
City of Pickering
Projection Comparison, 2021 to 2026
Notes: Population figures have been rounded and includes net Census undercount. G.M.S.
means Growth Management Strategy; R.O.P. means Regional Official Plan.
Source: Statistics Canada postcensal data derived from Table 17-10-0155-01, Envision
Durham (R.O.P.) adapted from Durham Regional Official Plan: Envision Durham,
September 3, 2024, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
[71] Postcensal estimates are based on the latest Census counts, which includes the net
Census undercount, and on the estimated population growth that occurred since that
Census, as calculated using fiscal data as defined by Statistics Canada.
94,600
103,600 105,700
109,100 113,400
110,400
125,100
125,800
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
125,000
130,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026To
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Year
Historical Statistics Canada Post-Censal Estimate
City of Pickering (2025 G.M.S.)Envision Durham (R.O.P.)
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 71
6.3 Longer-Term Population Growth Outlook for the City of
Pickering
As previously noted, it is recognized that Pickering’s long-term population growth
potential is largely tied to the success of the G.T.H.A. as a whole. With a robust
economy and diverse mix of export-based employment sectors, the G.T.H.A. is highly
attractive to new businesses and investors on an international and national level. The
G.T.H.A. is a fast-growing region in Ontario and more broadly in North America. The
continued strength of the regional G.T.H.A. employment market, combined with local
economic expansion opportunities across a range of employment sectors, presents a
tremendous opportunity for existing/future businesses and residents within the City of
Pickering.
Given the City’s geographic location within the east G.T.H.A., approximately 40 km east
of the City of Toronto (as measured between the downtown areas of each City), the City
of Pickering is well positioned to attract a significant number of newcomers over the
next three decades. The City’s communities are located within proximity to local and
regional infrastructure, including international airports, public and private schools, a
variety of indoor and outdoor recreation facilities, cultural and retail amenities, and
higher-order regional transit, as well as the vibrant Pickering City Centre and waterfront
area. Collectively, these attributes offer residents, particularly families, a world-class
quality of life, which continues to be a key draw for both new and existing residents as
well as a range of businesses.
The following key factors will also shape future residential demand to the city:
1. Availability of greenfield land supply to accommodate grade-related
housing options geared to new and existing families.
The City of Pickering has a healthy supply of existing vacant D.G.A. lands in the
Seaton Urban Area. Through Envision Durham, a Community Area expansion of
948 hectares was also identified in Northeast Pickering. As the vacant greenfield
land supply across the G.T.H.A. steadily diminishes, the City of Pickering is
anticipated to accommodate a large share of grade-related development (i.e.,
low- and medium-density housing) within its planned and future D.G.A. lands.
2. Increased demand for high-density housing options.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 72
The existing housing stock in the City of Pickering consists of 88% grade-related
households (i.e. low- and medium-density). Over the 2015 to 2024 period,
however, high-density units comprised 45% of new households.[72] While
demand for high-density housing is anticipated to remain strong, there is a
potential upper limit to annual absorption levels for high-density housing that the
City can reasonably expect to sustain over the long term within the context of the
real-estate market outlook for the G.T.H.A.
As previously noted in subsection 4.3.1, the City issued 1,270 high-density
building permits at its peak construction (new units) in 2023. Comparably, the
average number of new high-density housing units constructed in Pickering over
the next three decades is forecast to increase significantly relative to historical
trends experienced over the past two decades. It is unlikely, however, that the
City will experience sustained levels of new high-density housing development
over the long-term that will exceed the peak construction level the City
experienced in 2023.
With respect to the high-density housing market, a steady increase in demand for
high-density rental housing is anticipated within the City to accommodate
increased needs associated with the City’s growing population of low- and
middle-income households. Currently, the City is experiencing a shortage of
affordable rental housing accommodations.[73] This emphasizes the continued
need for a greater supply of non-market and market rental housing options
(including both primary and secondary rental high-density accommodations and
secondary units), as well as ownership condominiums, to address future high-
density housing demand across all ages and income groups.
3. More affordable housing options relative to the G.T.H.A.
Housing prices in the City of Pickering are notably lower relative to the majority of
the G.T.H.A. As previously discussed in subsection 4.2.1, the average
benchmark price of a single detached house and townhouse is up to 29% lower
[72] Existing housing stock based on 2021 Census data, and 2015 to 2024 growth based
on new units from building permit activity.
[73] As of October 2023, the City of Pickering is reported to have a 0.5% vacancy rate for
purpose-built rentals. A 3% rental vacancy rate is considered a healthy vacancy rate for
purpose-built rental housing.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 73
relative to the City of Toronto, York Region, Peel Region, and Halton Region,
while apartment prices are up to 15% lower. Looking forward, Pickering’s
proximity and connectivity to the City of Toronto will continue to generate strong
demand for population growth and the need for a range of housing options. The
City is well positioned to capitalize on this demand relative to most other
locations throughout the G.T.H.A.
Based on these growth drivers, the long-term population growth outlook for the City of
Pickering is anticipated to be strong relative to historical trends experienced over the
past two decades.
6.4 Aligning Housing Needs with Future Population Growth
in the City of Pickering
While the long-term growth outlook for the City is very positive, it is important to
recognize that accommodating new residents over a sustained long-term period at a
higher level compared to the past two decades will require the City to provide a broad
range of housing options by location, structure type/density, and affordability to
accommodate a growing and diversifying population base by age and income. Provided
below is a brief discussion regarding the housing needs associated with the broad
demographic groups that will be seeking housing in the City over the next three
decades.
6.4.1 Attracting Younger Generations
As previously discussed, population growth within the City of Pickering will continue to
be increasingly driven by the net-migration of children and adults between the ages of 0
and 44. This broad age group is anticipated to comprise the majority of the newcomers
to be accommodated within the City over the next three decades. In contrast, the City is
not anticipated to attract significant population growth associated with new residents
55+ years of age. Pickering has historically experienced out-migration of older adults
between 55 and 74 years of age, and a decreasing amount of in-migration in the 75+
age group. These trends in net migration are generally consistent with many mid-sized
and large suburban communities within the G.T.H.A.
A fundamental planning policy objective for the City of Pickering is to plan for complete
communities that offer a broad range of housing options and a diverse mix of local
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 74
employment opportunities. This is important because it is recognized that the City has a
role to play in attracting, growing, and retaining local businesses by providing housing
options to a growing local labour force base including younger generations, such as
Millennials and Generation Z.[74] To ensure that economic growth is not constrained by
future labour shortages, continued effort will be required by Durham Region and the City
of Pickering to explore ways to attract and accommodate new skilled working-age
residents to the Region within a diverse range of housing options by structure type,
tenure and location. Labour force attraction efforts must also be linked to a broad range
of attainable housing accommodations (both ownership and rental), infrastructure,
municipal services, amenities, and quality of life attributes that appeal to the younger
mobile population, while not detracting from the City’s attractiveness to families and
older population segments.
Not surprisingly, the results of this growth analysis indicate that housing occupancy
associated with younger adults in the City of Pickering is heavily weighted towards
rental housing, including low- and high-rise rental buildings (apartments with fewer than
five storeys and five storeys or greater) and secondary units within low-density
neighbourhoods.
6.4.2 Accommodating Adults and Families
To a large extent, newcomers to the City within the 35 to 54 age group will continue to
seek new and re-sale ground-oriented housing options, including single detached
dwellings, semi-detached units, and a variety of townhouse products (i.e., traditional
townhouses, back-to-back, and stacked townhouses). In addition, increasing demand is
anticipated across a range of other “missing middle” housing options, including
duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, and other low-rise hybrid buildings.[75]
[74] Millennials are typically defined as the segment of the population that reached
adulthood during the 2000s. While there is no standard age group associated with the
Millennial generation, people born between 1980 and 1992 (currently 33 to 45 years of
age in 2025) best fit the definition of this age group. For the purposes of this study, we
have assumed that those born between 1993 and 2005 (20 to 32 years of age as of
2025) comprise Generation Z.
[75] The “missing middle” describes a range of medium-density housing types between
single detached houses and apartment buildings. This includes a range of multi-unit or
clustered housing types compatible in scale with single-family homes that help meet the
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 75
The analysis provided herein demonstrates that the composition of households in the
City of Pickering is continuing to diversify. On the one hand, the City is experiencing a
growing number of multi-generational families (refer to Appendix B), which typically
generate larger average household sizes in terms of average number of people per unit.
On the other hand, the City is also experiencing an increase in the share of non-Census
families and one-person households, which typically produce smaller average
households. This suggests an increasing need to provide for a broader range of
housing products by built-form/density and affordability to meet the diverse housing
needs of the community by life stage and income.
6.4.3 Accommodating an Aging Population
Forecast trends in population age structure are important to address, as these
demographic trends directly influence the rate of future population growth, future
housing needs, infrastructure requirements, and community services. For Canadian
municipalities, including the City of Pickering, the influence of the Baby Boom
generation on real-estate market demand over the next several decades remains a key
issue.
As the City’s Baby Boom population continues to age over the next several decades,
the percentage of older seniors (i.e., people 75 years of age and older) is anticipated to
steadily increase from approximately 6% in 2021 to 11% in 2051 (refer to subsection
6.5.1). This represents a forecast annual population growth rate for the 75+ age group
of 5.0%, compared to 3.1% for the total population.
Within the 75+ age group, the growing share of people 85 years of age and older is
particularly important to note. In 2021, the 85+ age group represented approximately
2% of the City’s population, or about 1,900 residents. By 2051, the City’s 85+
population is forecast to grow to approximately 14,900 persons, representing 6% of the
City’s total population base. Forecast population growth associated with the 75+ age
group will be largely driven by the aging of the existing Baby Boom population within the
City, as opposed to net-migration of older residents to this area.[76]
growing demand for walkable urban living, such as duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes,
rowhouses, and townhouses.
[76] Over the 2021 to 2051 planning horizon, the 75+ age group is anticipated to
comprise a minor share of total net migration in the City of Pickering.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 76
Not only is the Baby Boomer age group growing in terms of its population share in the
City of Pickering, but it is also diversifying with respect to age, income, health, mobility,
and lifestyle/life stage. When planning for the needs of older adults, it is important to
consider these diverse physical and socio-economic characteristics relative to younger
population age groups. On average, seniors, particularly those in the 75+ age group
have less mobility and typically require greater health care compared to younger seniors
(65 to 74 years of age) and other younger segments of the working-age population.
Typically, these characteristics associated with the 75+ age group drive relatively
stronger demand for higher-density forms (e.g., rental apartments, condominiums, and
seniors’ homes) when compared to younger adults. Market demand for these types of
housing products in the City of Pickering has been strongest in locations that are in
proximity to urban amenities such as retail, dining and entertainment, health care
facilities, and other community services geared towards older seniors.
Considerable research has been undertaken over the past decade regarding the aging
population and its impact on housing needs over the long term. The majority of
literature and commentary regarding the housing needs of older Canadians
overwhelmingly suggests that a large percentage of seniors will “age in place”; that is, to
continue to live in their current home and/or community for as long as possible even if
their health changes.[77] While there is strong rationale to support “aging in place” as a
general concept, it is important to recognize the significant shift in Baby Boomer
housing preferences in the City of Pickering over the past 15 years away from grade-
related dwellings (i.e. low- and medium-density housing) and towards high-density
housing forms (refer to Appendix B).
With this in mind, the concept of “aging in place” should emphasize the goal to age with
some level of independence “within the community,” as opposed to simply “aging at
home.” The overarching message around “aging in place” is that seniors require choice
as well as access to services and amenities regarding their living arrangements.[78] In
part, this is being accomplished in the City by creating new housing options, largely in
intensification areas, to facilitate “aging in place” and ensure seniors can remain in their
communities when responding to life changes. In turn, providing a broader range of
[77] Canadian Housing Observer 2011. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
2011.
[78] The Meaning of “Aging in Place” to Older People. The Gerontologist, Vol. 52, No. 3,
2012.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 77
housing options for the City’s growing seniors’ population will reintroduce additional
grade-related (i.e. low- and medium-density) housing into the local supply inventory to
accommodate existing and new families in Pickering.
6.5 Long-Term Population and Housing Growth Forecast,
2021 to 2051
Building on the key growth assumptions previously discussed in this report, Figure 6-5
presents the long-term population forecast for the City of Pickering to the year 2051.
Additional details are provided in Appendix F. Key observations are as follows:
• The City of Pickering population grew at an annual rate of 0.8% per year
between 2006 and 2021, which is approximately 800 people per year.
• As per the Envision Durham forecast, as approved by M.M.A.H. in September
2024, the City is expected to reach 256,400 residents by 2051, which represents
an annual rate of 3.1%. Comparatively, this represents a growth rate that is
notably higher than the City has achieved historically.
• In accordance with this G.M.S. for the City, Pickering’s population is forecast to
reach the Envision Durham forecast for the City of 256,400 by 2051, which is
approximately 5,100 people per year.
• Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the 2021 population from
Envision Durham based on a review of the Statistics Canada 2021 Census,
which has been upwardly adjusted for the Census undercount at 4%.[79] The
short-term population growth forecast has also been adjusted to reflect recent
development trends.
[79] Based on Statistics Canada, Census data. The Statistics Canada population is adjusted to account for the net number of
people who are missed (i.e., over-coverage less under-coverage) during enumeration.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 78
Figure 6-5
City of Pickering
Total Population, 2006 to 2051
Notes: Population includes net Census undercount and has been rounded
Source: Historical derived from Statistics Canada Census and Demography Division data, 2006
to 2021, and forecast prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Figure 6-5 indicates that the long-term population growth outlook for the City of
Pickering will be strong relative to population growth trends within the G.T.H.A. The
long-term population growth forecast for the City of Pickering under Envision Durham
remains the recommended growth forecast for the following reasons:
1. It represents a reasonable future rate of population growth relative to historical
trends, considering recent and forecast immigration levels expected for Canada
and Ontario over the next several years and longer-term population growth
forecasts for the province. Furthermore, the share of population growth in the 15
to 64 age group is reasonable within the context of historical migration patterns
and broader demographic trends anticipated across the province and the
G.T.H.A.
2. Pickering is a relatively young municipality. As a result, population growth in the
City will continue to be driven by both natural increase (births less deaths) and
net migration. In contrast, the population in some Ontario municipalities is not
growing from natural increase and, in some cases, municipalities are
91,400 92,400 95,500 103,600
125,100
150,100
176,400
200,400
228,100
256,400
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
Po
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Historical Forecast
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 79
experiencing negative trends regarding natural population growth. Looking
forward, annual net migration is forecast to be higher relative to 2001 to 2021
levels. Forecast trends in net migration and natural increase in the forecast are
ambitious but reasonable for the purposes of long-range planning and growth
management.
3. The forecast level of annual new housing development required to accommodate
the population growth forecast represents a considerable increase in housing
activity (explored later in this chapter). The near-term growth forecast (next five
to 10 years) is supported by recent residential building permit activity and active
development applications currently under review by the City. This increase is
achievable considering the forecast population growth outlook and corresponding
housing needs across Durham Region and more broadly throughout the G.T.H.A.
This is further supported by a steady increase in housing development activity in
the City’s B.U.A., and a notable amount of housing growth expected in the
Seaton Urban Area.
6.5.1 Forecast Population by Age Group
Figure 6-6 summarizes the city-wide forecast by major age group over the 2021 to 2051
forecast period. Over this period, the City’s population base is expected to steadily age.
Most notably, the percentage of population in the 75+ age group (older seniors) is
forecast to increase from 6% of the total population in 2021 to 11% in 2051. As
previously noted, the aging of the population is anticipated to place downward pressure
on the rate of population and labour force growth within the City over the long term.
Similar to the Province as a whole, the City will increasingly become more reliant on net
migration as a source of population growth as a result of these demographic conditions.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 80
Figure 6-6
City of Pickering
Population by Age Group, 2006 to 2051
Note: Figures may not add precisely due to rounding. Population includes Census undercount.
Source: Historical 2006 to 2021 data derived from Statistics Canada Annual Demographic
Statistics; 2021 to 2051 forecast prepared by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
6.5.2 Total Housing Forecast
Figure 6-7 and Figure 6-8 summarize the city-wide total permanent housing forecast
and the city-wide annual incremental housing forecast from 2021 to 2051. Historical
Census housing trends are provided for historical context. Key observations are as
follows:
• Over the 2021 to 2051 forecast period, permanent households are expected to
increase from 33,400 to 88,600, growing at a rate of 3.3% annually.
• Annual forecast housing growth is expected to average 1,840 units per year, a
significant increase from the historical average of 350 units annually.
• Over the 2021 to 2031 period, the City is forecast to add 16,500 housing units,
meeting their municipal housing pledge target of 13,000 new homes by 2031, as
set out under Bill 23 (refer to subsection 2.1.1 herein).
• Overall average household occupancy levels (persons per unit) are expected to
decline from 3.10 in 2021 to 2.89 in 2051, largely as a result of the aging of the
population, in addition to growth in non-Census family households.
28%25%23%22%23%23%23%22%21%21%
18%19%20%21%20%18%18%19%19%19%
17%13%12%13%15%16%15%13%13%14%
17%18%16%13%12%12%13%15%14%13%
11%13%15%15%13%11%11%11%12%13%
5%7%8%10%11%11%10%9%9%9%
4%5%6%6%8%9%10%12%11%11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
Pe
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Year
0-19 20-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 81
• A broad mix of future ownership and rental housing options across a range of
density types will be required to accommodate both younger and older adults
across varying income levels, including affordable housing options, throughout
the city. The housing forecast by structure type and planning policy area is
explored in subsection 6.5.3.
Figure 6-7
City of Pickering
Total Housing Forecast, 2006 to 2051
Note: Figures have been rounded and may not add up precisely.
Source: Historical data derived from Statistics Canada Census profiles; forecast prepared
by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
28,200 29,300 30,900
33,40033,400
40,900
49,900
59,200
68,000
78,200
88,600
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
To
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Historical Forecast
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 82
Figure 6-8
City of Pickering
Incremental Housing Forecast, 2006 to 2051
Note: Figures have been rounded and may not add up precisely.
Source: Historical data derived from Statistics Canada Census profiles; forecast prepared
by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
6.5.3 Residential Growth Scenarios by Planning Policy Area
Building on the results of the growth forecast presented in subsections 6.5.1 and 6.5.2,
three long-term population and housing growth scenarios have been developed by the
following planning policy areas:
• Built-Up Area (B.U.A.).
• Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.) and Northeast Pickering Expansion Area Total.
• Rural Area.
Three long-term growth scenarios are explored as part of this City of Pickering G.M.S.
These growth scenarios assess the long-term opportunities and challenges for the City
to accommodate a range of intensification targets; explore the impacts on the type of
housing that would be delivered under each scenario; and asses the impacts on the
City’s long-term urban land needs to the year 2051 as previously identified under
Envision Durham (assessed in Chapter 7). Scenario 1 is the recommended scenario as
it implements the direction of the recommended Envision Durham growth scenario
carried out as part of the Region of Durham M.C.R. Furthermore, a 40% intensification
220
320 500
1,500
1,780 1,870 1,760
2,040 2,080
Historical Average:
350
Forecast Average:
1,840
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006 to
2011
2011 to
2016
2016 to
2021
2021 to
2026
2026 to
2031
2031 to
2036
2036 to
2041
2041 to
2046
2046 to
2051
An
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A
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r
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g
e
Ho
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s
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g
G
r
o
w
t
h
Period
Historical
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 83
target is supported based on an assessment of historical housing trends as illustrated in
Chapter 4.3.1, and the demand for high-density housing within the broader regional
G.T.H.A. market as previously noted in Section 6.3.
The City averaged 620 new housing units annually in the B.U.A. over the last decade
from 2015 to 2024. Growth in the B.U.A. peaked during the height of the pandemic in
2023 with 1,416 new housing units, and an annual average of 890 new units from 2021
to 2024 of which nearly 80% were high-density housing units. As previously noted, pre-
construction levels for condominium apartments have decreased considerably since
2023, which suggests high-density construction activity will moderate over the next year
or two. Looking forward over the long-term planning horizon to 2051, low-density
housing opportunities in the B.U.A. will dimmish with growth shifting towards higher
densities. While demand for high-density housing is anticipated to remain strong, there
is a potential upper limit to annual absorption levels for high-density housing that the
City can reasonably expect to sustain over the long term within the context of the real-
estate market outlook for the G.T.H.A. It is also unlikely that the City will experience
sustained levels of housing development in the B.U.A. over the long-term that will
exceed the peak construction level the City experienced in 2023. Accordingly, a 40%
intensification target remains reasonable due to the factors above, and results in an
average of 725 new housing units annually in the B.U.A. from 2021 to 2051, which is a
17% increase relative to the last decade. The intensification target is not to be used to
constrain or set a capacity limit on urban development.
In accordance with our review, the two additional intensification scenarios are explored
given the recent higher demand the City has experienced for high-density development
in the B.U.A., the substantial intensification supply potential in the City’s S.G.A.s for
high-density residential units identified in Chapter 5, and demographic trends discussed
in Section 6. The purpose of Scenarios 2 and 3 is not to suggest a different outcome for
the Community Area land requirement of 948 hectares in the Northeast Pickering
Expansion Area, but to illustrate the sensitivity of different intensification and densities
on the type and distribution of residential development and Community Area expansion
needs in Northeast Pickering. The long-term growth scenarios have been developed in
accordance with the following key assumptions:
• Scenario 1: Baseline intensification rate of 40% and 52 people and jobs per
hectare for Community Area Expansion lands, as previously identified
under Envision Durham.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 84
o Derived from the recommended Envision Durham growth scenario with
modifications.
• Consistent with the 40% intensification target and 948-hectare Community Area
land need. Modifications have been made to the following:
▪ B.U.A. housing unit mix due to increased high-density opportunities
identified in the City’s intensification analysis; and
▪ Community Area density (people and jobs per hectare) as a result
of new persons per unit data from the 2021 Census released after
Envision Durham was completed.
• Scenario 2: Intensification rate of 45% and 65 people and jobs per hectare
for Community Area Expansion lands.
• Scenario 3: Intensification rate of 50% and 65 people and jobs per hectare
for Community Area Expansion lands.
o Scenarios 2 and 3 explore a revised housing unit mix for the Community
Area based on demographic and market trends, in addition to higher
density (people and jobs per hectare) assumptions.
o Both alternative scenarios have similar density targets, with the difference
being the intensification rate.
6.5.3.1 Approach to Assessing Local Housing Demand and Supply
Each of the three long-term intensification growth scenarios have been developed
based on an assessment of regional and local demographic and economic trends,
which are anticipated to influence the amount, type, and location of development within
the City of Pickering over the long term. In developing the three long-term growth
scenarios for the City by planning policy area, consideration was given to the following
key regional/local supply and demand factors:
Local Supply Factors
• Supply of potential future housing stock in the development process by housing
structure type, approval status, and location.
• Short-, medium, and long-term residential intensification opportunities.
• Current inventory of net vacant designated urban “greenfield” lands not currently
in the development approvals process.
• Consideration with respect to water and wastewater servicing capacity.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 85
• Provincial, Regional and local policy direction regarding forecast residential
growth by broader Planning Policy Area.
Demand Factors
• Historical population and housing trends based on Statistics Canada (Census)
data.
• A review of historical residential building permit activity by housing structure type
and Planning Policy Area.
• Anticipated timing of active development applications in the development process
by housing structure type and approval status.
• Market demand for housing intensification.
• The appeal of the City’s areas to a broad range of demographic groups, including
young adults, families, empty nesters, and seniors.
6.5.3.2 Residential Growth Forecast Scenarios to 2051
Building on the supply and demand factors, and growth drivers discussed previously
throughout the report, the three growth scenarios are summarized in Figure 6-9 by
planning policy area over the 2021 to 2051 forecast period. Additional details are
provided in Appendix D. The results of this analysis identify the following:
City-wide Residential Forecast
• Under each of the intensification scenarios, housing demand is anticipated to
continue to gradually shift away from low-density housing forms towards
medium- and high-density housing forms over the long term. This trend is
anticipated to be largely driven by on-going challenges in housing affordability
associated with low-density housing options, as well as increased demand for
medium- and high-density housing forms driven by demographic and socio-
economic factors associated with the aging population base, high-density
housing demand associated with non-Census family households, and lifestyle
choices of existing and new residents.
• As a result of the continued shift anticipated in housing demand from low-density
to medium- and high-density housing forms across the City, it is projected that
the share of housing growth associated with low-density housing will continue to
gradually decline. Conversely, this trend is anticipated to be off-set by a steady
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 86
increase in the share of a broad range of medium- and high-density housing
forms.
• Consistent with historical trends, this shift in housing forms is projected to be
most pronounced in younger population age groups between 25 and 34 years of
age, as well as older age groups (i.e., 65+). Geographically, this shift in the
share of forecast housing demand by structure type is anticipated to be most
concentrated within the S.G.A.s of the City’s B.U.A. (i.e., in the Downtown and
Mixed Use Areas, and around transit stations) as these areas are planned to
accommodate transformative change enabled by transportation infrastructure
that is supportive of more compact development forms.
• It is important to note that even though the share of low-density housing is
forecast to decrease from 2021 to 2051 across all scenarios, the absolute
amount of annual low-density housing growth in each scenario is higher than the
level achieved by the City over the last two decades. Each scenario forecasts a
robust amount of low-density housing growth, largely geared to demand
associated with new and existing families.
Trends by Planning Policy Area
• All growth scenarios maximize low-density housing development potential in the
B.U.A., with increased intensification under Scenarios 2 and 3.
• The Seaton Urban Area is forecast to accommodate an additional 21,100
households from 2021 to 2051, consisting of 30% low-density, 41% medium-
density, and 29% high-density housing units. Planned urban development for
this area is consistent across the three growth scenarios.
• For the Northeast Pickering Expansion Area, the Scenario 1 housing unit mix
primarily consists of low-density housing units, with a density of 55 people and
jobs per hectare. Under Scenarios 2 and 3, the density increases to 65 people
and jobs per hectare resulting in a greater share and higher absolute level of
medium-density and high-density households in the expansion area.
• Under Scenario 1, new housing development from 2021 to 2051 consists of 33%
low-density, 26% medium-density, and 41% high-density units.
• Under each of the growth options, the City’s housing mix by structure type is
forecast to gradually shift further from low-density to medium- and high-density
housing forms over the 30-year forecast period:
o Under Scenario 2, new housing development comprises 21% low-density,
31% medium-density, and 48% high-density units; and
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 87
o Under Scenario 3, new housing development comprises 18% low-density,
31% medium-density, and 51% high-density units.
• Under all three scenarios, forecast housing demand in the Rural Area is oriented
towards low-density housing in addition to some high-density housing through
secondary units. All three growth options forecast the same amount of housing
demand in the Rural Area.
Figure 6-9
City of Pickering
Incremental Residential Growth Forecast Scenario Summary by Planning Policy Area,
2021 to 2051
Notes:
- Low density households include single and semi-detached houses.
- Medium density households include row townhouses, back-to-back townhouses, and
apartments in duplexes.
- High density households include stacked townhouses, and bachelor, 1-bedroom, and 2-
bedroom+ apartment units. This also includes self-contained living accommodations such as
apartments and small residential units (i.e. secondary units / additional residential units).
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
6.6 Long-Term Employment Growth, 2024 to 2051
Building on the population and housing growth forecast, as well as the provincial and
regional economic review provided throughout Chapter 3, a long-term employment
Scenario
Population
Including
Census
Undercount
Low Density
Households
Medium
Density
Households
High Density
Households
Total
Households
Scenario 1: 40% Intensification 46,600 660 4,790 16,320 21,760
Scenario 2: 45% Intensification 62,300 660 5,480 18,650 24,780
Scenario 3: 50% Intensification 71,000 660 6,100 20,780 27,540
Scenario 1: 40% Intensification 105,800 17,220 9,810 6,230 33,260
Scenario 2: 45% Intensification 90,100 10,720 11,880 7,650 30,240
Scenario 3: 50% Intensification 81,400 9,390 10,900 7,190 27,490
Scenarios 1 to 3 400 90 0 30 120
Scenario 1: 40% Intensification 152,800 17,960 14,600 22,580 55,140
Scenario 2: 45% Intensification 152,800 11,460 17,360 26,330 55,140
Scenario 3: 50% Intensification 152,800 10,130 17,010 28,010 55,140
Scenario 1: 40% Intensification -33% 26% 41% 100%
Scenario 2: 45% Intensification -21% 31% 48% 100%
Scenario 3: 50% Intensification -18% 31% 51% 100%
Built-Up Area
DGA & NE Pickering Expansion Area Total
Rural Area
City of Pickering Total
City of Pickering Total Housing Shares
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 88
growth forecast review has been prepared for the City of Pickering. As illustrated in
Figure 6-10, key observations are as follows:
• From 2024 to 2051, the employment base for Pickering is forecast to increase by
50,300 employees, reaching 93,800 total jobs by 2051, which is consistent with
Envision Durham.
• The City’s employment activity rate (ratio of jobs to population) is anticipated to
remain relatively stable at 37% by 2051. This indicates that population and
employment growth in the City is forecast to increase at a similar rate.
In accordance with the detailed review undertaken as part of this G.M.S., the Envision
Durham employment forecast remains the “most plausible” and recommended long-
term growth scenario for the City by the year 2051, considering forecast population
growth trends and the City’s near- and long-term opportunities within its Employment
Areas (refer to Chapter 7).
Figure 6-10
City of Pickering
Total Employment Forecast, 2024 to 2051
Notes:
- Figures have been rounded.
- Total employment includes N.F.P.O.W. and work at home jobs.
- Statistics Canada 2021 Census place of work employment data has been reviewed. The
2021 Census employment results have not been utilized due to a significant increase in
work at home employment captured due to Census enumeration occurring during the
provincial COVID-19 lockdown from April 1, 2021 to June 14, 2021.
Source: 2016 derived from Statistics Canada Census data, 2024, and forecast prepared by
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
37,500 39,300 43,500 45,400
56,000
67,700
77,500
85,800
93,800
36%38%37%36%
37%38%39%38%37%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2016 2021 2024 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051
Ac
t
i
v
i
t
y
R
a
t
e
To
t
a
l
E
m
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t
Year
Historical Forecast Activity Rate
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 89
6.6.1 Employment Forecast by Employment Category
Figure 6-11 summarizes the City’s employment growth forecast over the 2024 to 2051
period by major employment land use category, including population-related
employment (P.R.E.), employment land employment (E.L.E.), and major office
employment (M.O.E.). Provided below is a brief description of the employment forecast
by category for the City.
Population-Related Employment
• P.R.E. growth across Pickering’s Community Areas is anticipated to be largely
driven by opportunities associated with commercial retail and institutional
sectors, accounting for approximately 49% of employment growth (approximately
24,900 jobs) over the 2024 to 2051 forecast period. P.R.E. also captures work
from home employment. As previously noted in Figure 6-5, Pickering’s
population is anticipated to increase by approximately 152,800 people between
2021 and 2051. Forecast population growth in Pickering is anticipated to drive
demand for future P.R.E. growth in the City in the sectors discussed below.
• Retail, as well as accommodation and food employment sectors, generally serve
the local population base by providing convenient locations to local residents.
Typically, as the population grows, the demand for employment in these sectors
also increases to serve the needs of the area.
• It is noted that e-commerce, automation, and increased urbanization is
anticipated to have an impact on the function of “bricks and mortar” retail stores,
by blurring the lines between warehousing and retail (i.e., retail stores with micro-
fulfillment centres) and influencing the format of retail. Notwithstanding the rapid
pace of e-commerce growth experienced over the past decade, demand for
“bricks and mortar” retail is anticipated to be here to stay. Retailers continue to
focus on the retail store model, as it is still considered the most profitable model
for many retailers.
• Since the early 2000s, retail growth in urban centres across southern Ontario has
primarily focused on the infilling of existing retail sites through “baby-box” retail
pads (smaller retailers with a similar building design to big-box retailers) in power
centres, expansions of regional shopping centres, and retail growth oriented
towards serving the local needs of a neighbourhood. National and local retail
trends suggest that retail growth will continue to focus on infilling existing retail
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 90
sites with an emphasis on local serving uses, experiences, services, and
“bargain hunting” retail destinations that do not rely on e-commerce platforms.
• These retail uses tend to have a smaller retail footprint, which provides more
flexibility in accommodating mixed-use or intensification environments. These
trends are anticipated to reduce the average floor space per retail worker, as
retail operations with smaller building footprints typically generate less average
floor space per worker compared to “big-box” retail operations.
• Pickering is also expected to experience a significant increase in knowledge-
based employment driven by substantial growth in business services,
professional, scientific and technical services, and information and cultural
industries, which will be largely accommodated within stand-alone and multi-
tenant office buildings. The P.R.E. category would include office buildings under
1,900 sq.m (20,000 sq.ft.)
• Similar to much of the commercial employment sector, demand for institutional
employment increases as the population grows, and particularly as the City ages,
to serve the needs of an aging community. This category will be driven by
demand in the educational services and health care and social assistance
sectors.
Employment Lands Employment
• The City is anticipated to accommodate approximately 19,400 additional E.L.E.
jobs (approximately 39% of total city-wide employment growth between 2024 and
2051) within its established and planned Employment Areas. The E.L.E. forecast
largely comprises industrial employment related to warehousing and
transportation, manufacturing, and utilities. A minor share of non-industrial uses
associated or ancillary to the primary industrial use is also accommodated in the
E.L.E. forecast. The E.L.E. forecast is consistent with Envision Durham;
however, growth within Employment Areas has been updated to reflect the more
narrowly scoped definition of Employment Area provided in the P.P.S., 2024
(refer to Chapter 8 and 9 for further discussion on implications and direction for
the City of Pickering).
• One major project to note is the refurbishment of the Pickering Nuclear
Generating Station which the Ontario Government has invested $6.2 billion to
Ontario Power Generation (O.P.G.) to date. The project is anticipated to be
completed by the mid 2030’s and will create thousands of jobs across the
province and contribute $19.4 billion to Ontario’s G.D.P. over the next 11 years.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 91
The refurbishment will extend the life of the plant, increase electricity production
to power two million homes, and protect more than 6,000 jobs in Pickering and
across Durham Region that rely on the station.[80]
Major Office Employment
• As previously discussed in section 3.3, COVID-19 has accelerated changes in
work and commerce as a result of technological disruptions that were already
taking place prior to the pandemic. Accordingly, businesses are increasingly
required to rethink the way they conduct business with a greater emphasis on
leveraging technology to improve connectivity with employees and customers.
These disruptive forces continue to broadly impact the nature of employment by
place of work and sector and have a direct influence on office space needs in the
following ways:
o Upward pressure on office vacancy rates, including a negative net
absorption of office space;
o Higher sustained remote work levels with a continued preference by
employees and employers for a hybrid model that offers opportunities for
flexible workplace arrangements. This trend also provides the opportunity
for employers to reach beyond the commuter-shed for talent;
o Change in the office floorplan with a focus on “activity-based” workspaces
(e.g., collaboration rooms, hot desking stations, larger kitchens, a variety
of desk options, virtual conference rooms, rest areas, etc.);
o Focus on flexible office-hour arrangements with less emphasis on the “9 to
5” office environment; and
o “Flight to quality” office space where businesses are seeking higher quality
offices with amenities on-site and nearby to attract talent and to bring
employees into the office.
• These above-noted trends are anticipated to generate increasingly lower average
office floor space per worker levels and potentially reduce office space needs per
capita over the long term. Such trends, however, are not anticipated to eliminate
the need for new office construction over the long term.
• Relative to Envision Durham, a lower share of employment growth in Pickering
has been allocated to the M.O.E. category (12% of total city-wide employment
[80] Province of Ontario News Release, Ontario Advancing Plan to Refurbish Pickering
Nuclear Generating Station, January 23, 2025.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 92
growth between 2024 and 2051) reflecting these trends. M.O.E. growth will be
driven largely by growth in key knowledge-based industry clusters, including
professional, scientific and technical services, real estate, and finance and
insurance.
Work at Home and No Fixed Place of Work Employment
• Looking forward, continued advances in technology and telecommunications are
also anticipated to increase the relative share of at-home and/or off-site
employment over the long term. Demographics and socio-economics also play a
role in the future demand for off-site and work at home employment within an
increasingly knowledge- and technology-driven economy. It is anticipated that
many working residents within Pickering will utilize technology to provide or
supplement their income in more flexible ways in contrast to traditional work
patterns. It is also likely that an increased number of working and semi-retired
residents will be seeking lifestyles that will allow them to work from home on a
full-time or part-time basis across the City, as they transition from the workforce
to retirement. Accordingly, approximately 28% of the total job growth is related to
home occupations, home-based businesses, and off-site employment.
Rural Employment
• Rural-based employment, employment mainly consisting of primary sectors, is
anticipated to represent less than 1% of Pickering’s employment growth over the
2024 to 2051 period.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 93
Figure 6-11
City of Pickering
Total Employment Growth Forecast by Employment Category, 2024 to 2051
Note: Figures include work at home and no fixed place of work employment.
Numbers may not add up precisely due to rounding.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Population
Related
24,900
49%
Employment Land
Employment
19,400
39%
Major
Office
5,800
12%
Rural
<1%
200
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 94
7. City of Pickering Urban Land Needs
7.1 Community Area Land Needs
7.1.1 Designated Growth Area
The D.G.A. in the City of Pickering covers approximately 1,200 gross developable
hectares (2,970 acres). This area is shown in Figure 7-1 and primarily encompasses
the Seaton Urban Area, along with a small section of the Duffin Heights neighbourhood
that borders it (about 5 hectares or 12 acres). The majority of the Duffin Heights
neighbourhood within the D.G.A. comprises Natural Heritage System lands which are
non-developable. Within the Seaton Urban Area, the D.G.A. includes both Community
Area and Employment Area lands.
Figure 7-1
City of Pickering
Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.)
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on City of Pickering G.I.S. data.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 95
7.1.2 Community Area Land Supply and People and Jobs
Accommodated
The D.G.A. Community Area in the City of Pickering includes approximately 880 gross
developable hectares, as illustrated in Figure 7-2. This total includes both developed
and approved lands, as well as remaining vacant areas that would accommodate
residential, commercial, institutional, and parkland uses. As discussed later, the
D.R.O.P. (Envision Durham) has identified Community Area Expansion lands in the
City’s northeast. These expansion lands, however, are not yet designated in the City of
Pickering O.P. and are not included in Figure 7-2.
Figure 7-2
City of Pickering
Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.) Community Area Land Supply,
Gross Developable, hectares
D.G.A. Land
Supply
Total Gross
D.G.A.
Land Area,
hectare
Total Non-
Developable
Take-outs
D.G.A.
Net of
Take-Outs,
hectares
Gross
Developable
Employment
Area Lands,
hectares
Gross
Developable
Community
Areas,
hectares
- A B C = A – B D E = C – D
D.G.A. 3,080 1,880 1,200 320 880
Source: Derived from the Region of Durham Municipal Comprehensive Review, Community
Area and Urban Land Needs Technical Report by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. and
Urban Strategies, 2022.
As shown in Figure 7-3, the majority of the D.G.A. Community Area supply is within the
Seaton Urban Area, covering approximately 875 hectares (2,160 acres), which is
planned to accommodate around 65,000 residents. It is estimated that, as of 2021,
Seaton has a population of approximately 3,800 residents.[81] A very small portion of
the D.G.A., totalling 5 hectares (12 acres), is located within the Duffin Heights
neighbourhood.
[81] Based on an estimate by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 96
Figure 7-3
Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.) Community Area Land Supply,
Gross Developable, hectares by Location
D.G.A. Land
Supply
Seaton
Secondary
Plan Area
Duffin
Heights
Gross
Developable
Community
Areas
(Hectares)
- A B C = A + B
D.G.A. Community Area 875 5 880
Source: Derived from the Region of Durham Municipal Comprehensive Review, Community
Area and Urban Land Needs Technical Report by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. and
Urban Strategies, 2022.
It is anticipated that the City’s D.G.A. will accommodate an average density of
approximately 94 people and jobs per hectare. As shown in Figure 7-4, this is expected
to result in approximately 65,000 residents and 17,200 jobs by 2051, in line with the
Seaton Urban Area forecast prepared under Envision Durham, as adjusted by
Watson.[82] The D.G.A. is expected to accommodate this population in over 21,100
housing units, with a mix of 30% low-density, 41% medium-density, and 29% high-
density housing. In terms of employment, the Seaton Community Area is anticipated to
primarily support population-related jobs, and to a lesser extent office employment. The
average ratio is expected to be one job for every four residents in the D.G.A.
[82] Relative to the Envision Durham, Watson made adjustments to the allocation of
employment growth within the Seaton Secondary Plan Area. The total employment for
Seaton remains unchanged; however, Watson downwardly adjusted the employment
anticipated in Employment Areas in Seaton and upwardly adjusted the employment in
the Community Area in Seaton to reflect a higher amount of work at home employment
and reduced office employment in the Employment Area. As a result, the employment
in the Community Area in Seaton is approximately 1,000 jobs higher than in the
Envision Durham reporting. A further discussion regarding this employment adjustment
is provided in Chapter 8. The population in Seaton has also been adjusted upwards
due to utilizing 2021 Statistics Canada Census persons per unit data which had
increased occupancy levels relative to the 2016 Census.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 97
Figure 7-4
City of Pickering
Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.) Community Area People and Jobs, 2051
D.G.A.
Gross
Developable
Land Area
(Hectares)
Population Jobs
Total
People
and Jobs
Density:
Total People
and Jobs
per hectare
Seaton Secondary
Plan Area 875 65,000 17,070 82,070 94
Duffin Heights 5 200 <100 200 56
Total Community
Area 880 65,200 17,170 82,370 94
Note: Figure has been rounded and may not up precisely when compared to other figures.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2025.
7.1.3 People and Jobs Density
As shown in Figure 7-5, it is estimated that the active development applications in
Seaton are generating an average of 79 people and jobs per hectare. This estimate is
based on a housing mix of 30% low density, 41% medium density, and 29% high
density. This housing mix suggests a range of options that are less focused on the low-
density developments (such as single detached and semi-detached housing
developments) typically found in mature greenfield areas across Durham Region.[83]
Additionally, it is worth noting that the medium-density areas in approved plans for
Seaton include more compact housing forms, like back-to-back townhouses, which
generally have a higher average density than traditional row housing. For example, a
back-to-back townhouse development, which eliminates rear yards and features more
vertical design (often can be three storeys above grade), can achieve an average
[83] Furthermore, it is notable that based on the Region of Durham M.C.R., Community
Area and Urban Land Needs Technical Report which indicates that the developed
D.G.A. has a lower density average people and jobs density than recent active
applications.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 98
density (units per hectare) that is up to 30% higher than a traditional row housing
development.[84]
Looking ahead, based on the demographic and market factors discussed in Chapter 6,
we anticipate that the trend towards more compact housing forms, including a variety of
medium density housing forms, will continue. This will address the increasing demand
towards accommodating “missing middle” housing forms as previously discussed in
Chapter 6.[85] The City’s high-density housing category is also expected to include a
range of housing forms, such as stacked townhouses, low-rise, and mid-rise
apartments. The density levels for high-density developments in the D.G.A. are
expected to be lower than those in the B.U.A., as the B.U.A. would include more high-
rise apartments (i.e., more than 12 storeys) with underground parking.
For comparison, based on approved applications, the people and jobs density across
urban municipalities in Durham Region ranges from 79 people and jobs per hectare in
Seaton to 56 people and jobs per hectare in the Town of Whitby, as summarized in
Figure 7-5. According to the Region of Durham M.C.R., the average density for the
Pickering Expansion Lands is set at 52 people and jobs per hectare, which is
significantly lower than what is being achieved in other urban municipalities in Durham
Region (Town of Ajax, Town of Whitby, and City of Oshawa). Therefore, it is likely that
the City’s expansion lands will achieve a higher average density overall.
[84] Based on the assumption that a back-to-back townhouse would have an average of
60 to 75 units per hectare, while a traditional row housing development would have an
average of 30 to 45 units per hectare. The difference in density is largely due to
reduced building footprint size and yard requirements.
[85] The “missing middle” describes a range of medium-density housing types between
single detached houses and apartment buildings. This includes a range of multi-unit or
clustered housing types compatible in scale with single-family homes that help meet the
growing demand for walkable urban living, such as duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes,
rowhouses, and townhouses.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 99
Figure 7-5
Region of Durham Comparators
Average Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.) Community Area Density
Active Development Applications and Pickering Expansion Lands
Note: Based on approved applications.
Source: Derived from the Region of Durham Municipal Comprehensive Review, Community
Area and Urban Land Needs Technical Report by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. and
Urban Strategies, 2022.
7.1.4 Community Area Land Needs
As previously discussed, this G.M.S. explores three long-range growth scenarios to
assess long-term opportunities for the City to accommodate a range of long-term
residential intensification and greenfield density targets. These scenarios explore the
impacts of these long-term growth scenarios on the type and distribution of population,
housing, and employment growth, as well as urban land requirements to 2051.
Scenario 1 is the recommended scenario as it implements the direction of the
recommended Envision Durham growth scenario carried out as part of the Region of
Durham M.C.R. As identified in the M.C.R., the City of Pickering requires an urban
expansion of 948 hectares (approximately 2,340 acres) to support population and
employment growth in the Community Area. The expansion lands include an area
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 100
referred to as the Northeast Pickering Area. Figure 7-6 summarizes the Community
Area expansion requirements; key highlights include the following:
• It is forecast that the City will need to accommodate 109,600 people and 22,900
jobs in the D.G.A. by 2051, totalling 132,500 people and jobs.
• As previously discussed, the current D.G.A., which includes lands designated in
the City’s O.P., can accommodate approximately 82,400 people and jobs,
assuming a density of 94 people and jobs per hectare.
• Based on the forecast for people and jobs in the D.G.A. compared to the
available supply, it is estimated that the City will require additional land to
accommodate an additional 49,300 people and jobs.
• As part of the Region of Durham M.C.R., it was determined that the average
density for expansion lands will be 52 people and jobs per hectare.
Consequently, the City is estimated to require approximately 948 gross
developable hectares (approximately 2,340 acres) of Community Area land to
accommodate the population and supporting employment.
Figure 7-6
City of Pickering
Scenario 1: Region of Durham Municipal Comprehensive Review (Envision Durham)
Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.) Community Area Land Needs to 2051
D.G.A. Community Area Land Needs Calculation Scenario 1
2051 Population A 109,600
2051 Jobs B 22,900
2051 Total People and Jobs C = A + B 132,500
Residents and Jobs Accommodated in D.G.A.
Land Supply (Seaton Secondary Plan and
Duffin Heights)
D 82,400
Growth Not Accommodated in D.G.A.,
i.e., Northeast Pickering Area E = D - C 49,300
D.G.A. People and Jobs Density F 52
Land Area Required (Gross Developable
Hectares) G = E / F 948
Source: Derived from the Region of Durham Municipal Comprehensive Review with
modifications by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2025.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 101
The purpose of Scenarios 2 and 3 is not to suggest a different outcome with respect to
the Community Area land requirement of 948 hectares for the Northeast Pickering
Expansion Area, but to illustrate the sensitivity of different intensification and densities
on the type and distribution of residential development and Community Area expansion
needs in Northeast Pickering. The long-term growth scenarios have been developed in
accordance with the following key assumptions:
• Scenario 2: Intensification rate of 45% and 65 people and jobs per hectare for
Community Area Expansion lands.
• Scenario 3: Intensification rate of 50% and 65 people and jobs per hectare for
Community Area Expansion lands.
Scenarios 2 and 3 examine a revised housing unit mix for the Community Area, taking
into account demographic and market trends, as well as higher-density assumptions
(people and jobs per hectare) observed in comparable municipalities, along with
recently approved plans in the Seaton Urban Area. Both scenarios have similar density
targets, with the main difference being the intensification rate. Provided below in Figure
7-7 is a summary of the two alternative growth scenarios. Key highlights are provided
below:
• In Scenario 2, with a 45% intensification rate in the City, the growth forecast for
the D.G.A. decreases by 15,700 people and jobs. In Scenario 3, with a 50%
intensification rate, the growth forecast for the D.G.A. decreases to 25,900
people and jobs.
• Both Scenario 2 and Scenario 3 assume a density of 65 people and jobs per
hectare, which is approximately 25% higher than the density in Scenario 1 (52
people and jobs per hectare). Consequently, under Scenario 2, the Community
Area lands required in the Northeast Pickering Area would drop from 948
hectares (approximately 2,340 acres) (Scenario 1) to 518 hectares
(approximately 1,280 acres). In Scenario 3, the required Community Area lands
are further reduced to 360 hectares (approximately 890 acres).
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 102
Figure 7-7
City of Pickering
Scenarios 2 and 3: Alternative Growth Scenarios
Designated Growth Area (D.G.A.) Community Area Land Needs to 2051
D.G.A. Community Area Land Needs Calculation Scenario 2 Scenario 3
2051 Population A 93,900 85,200
2051 Jobs B 21,500 20,000
2051 Total People and Jobs C = A + B 115,400 105,200
Residents and Jobs Accommodated in
D.G.A. Land Supply (Seaton
Secondary Plan and Duffin Heights)
D 81,800 81,800
Growth Not Accommodated in D.G.A.,
i.e., Northeast Pickering Area E = D - C 33,600 23,400
D.G.A. People and Jobs Density F 65 65
Land Area Required (Gross
Developable Hectares) G = E / F 517 360
Notes:
Scenario 2: Intensification rate of 45% and 65 people and jobs per hectare for Community
Area Expansion lands.
Scenario 3: Intensification rate of 50% and 65 people and jobs per hectare for Community
Area Expansion lands.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2025.
7.2 Employment Area Land Needs
7.2.1 Employment Area Land Supply
There are three types of Employment Area designations: General, Prestige, and Mixed
Employment Area, which are identified in Schedule 1 of the City of Pickering O.P.
According to the City O.P., the General Employment designation is intended to
accommodate the broadest range of employment uses including potentially heavier
uses, whereas Prestige Employment designation is intended to be more focused on
offices and lighter industrial uses. The Mixed Employment designation is similar to the
Prestige Employment designation except that it also permits limited retailing of goods
and services serving the area.
As shown in Figure 7-8, the City has three Employment Areas: Pickering East,
Pickering West, and Seaton Innovation Corridor. The City’s heavy industrial uses are
primarily concentrated in the Pickering East Employment Area which includes the City’s
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 103
only designated General Employment lands. Within the Pickering East Employment
Area, a corridor along Bayly Street is designated as Mixed Employment, encompassing
a range of commercial and industrial uses. The Pickering West Employment Area and
the Seaton Innovation Corridor are designated as Prestige Employment areas.
Additionally, a small portion of the Pickering East Employment Area, located in the
northeast section, is also designated as Prestige Employment.
The Employment Areas in the southern part of the city (Pickering East and Pickering
West) are largely developed, while those in Seaton offer the City's greenfield
development opportunities. It is estimated that the City has approximately 228
hectares (563 acres) of vacant Employment Area land as of August 2024, as
summarized in Figure 7-9. It is estimated that 51 net developable hectares (126 acres)
of Employment Area lands are developed in Seaton, while 194 net developable
hectares (479 acres) are vacant.[86] In total there are 245 net developable hectares
(approximately 605 acres) in Seaton’s Employment Area. [87] While the Employment
Areas in Pickering East and Pickering West provide limited opportunities for
development on vacant sites, it is anticipated that these areas will offer significant
opportunities for employment intensification over the long-term on underutilized sites.
[86] On a gross basis the developed land area is approximately 62 gross hectares
(approximately 153 acres). Employment Area lands are considered vacant if a building
permit has not yet been issued. Sites with approved site plans or applications are
considered vacant until a building permit has been issued. Based on building permits
issued as of August 2024.
[87] Net land area has been adjusted for non-developable lands, long-term land vacancy
and local infrastructure.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 104
Figure 7-8
City of Pickering
Employment Areas
Map of Employment Areas and Designations
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on City of Pickering G.I.S. data.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 105
Figure 7-9
City of Pickering
Employment Areas
Vacant Land Supply, Hectares
Employment Areas Vacant Employment
Lands (Net Hectares)
Seaton Innovation Corridor 194
Pickering East and West Employment Areas 34
Total City of Pickering Employment Areas 228
Note: Vacant land supply is as of August 2024 and based on a desktop review.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
7.2.2 Recent Employment Area Development Activity
Recent development projects in Seaton have included two large integrated industrial
and office complexes, such as the FGF Brand Campus (a baked goods manufacturing
campus) and the Kubota Canada Inc. (farm and construction equipment manufacturer)
Head Office and Warehouse. Another integrated operation is the Lastman’s Bad Boy
(furniture retail company) site, which featured a distribution center and head office.
However, this operation recently closed because the company is no longer in business.
The development trends in Seaton are consistent with the rest of the G.T.H.A. towards
more integrated development, with less emphasis on single-use sites. This bodes well
for Seaton, as these operations typically have a more prestige building and site design,
despite having a warehousing and manufacturing component. Recent developments in
the City’s remaining Employment Areas have largely included small-scale industrial
developments. A larger development in the Pickering East Employment Area has
included the Duffin Creek Water Pollution Control Plant (901 Mackay Boulevard).[88]
7.2.3 Employment Area Demand
As outlined in Chapter 6, the City is forecast to accommodate approximately 50,300
jobs between 2024 and 2051, bringing the total number of jobs to 93,800 by 2051. This
aligns with the forecast set out in Envision Durham. As summarized in Figure 7-10, the
City is estimated to accommodated 56% of the jobs within the City’s Community Areas
and 44% of the jobs within the City’s Employment Areas. As a result, it is anticipated
[88] Based on City of Pickering Non-Residential Building Permit Activity.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 106
that the City will accommodate approximately 22,200 jobs within Employment Areas.
Employment growth within the Employment Areas will consist of E.L.E., primarily
industrial-type development, which may include ancillary or accessory office or
commercial uses. Additional details regarding the Seaton Employment Area are
provided in Chapter 8.
Figure 7-10
City of Pickering
Employment Areas and Community Areas
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2025.
7.2.4 Employment Growth Allocation by Employment Area
Figure 7-11 summarizes the anticipated employment growth in the City’s Employment
Areas. These areas are expected to accommodate 15,600 jobs through intensification
and the development of approximately 228 net hectares (563 acres) of vacant
Employment Area lands. The average density on these vacant lands is anticipated to
average 57 jobs per net hectare.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 107
Figure 7-11
City of Pickering
Employment Growth by Employment Area, 2024 to 2051
Employment Area Employment
Employment
Adjusted for
Intensification
Employment
Area Density
Total Land
Area (Net
Hectares)
Seaton Employment
Area (Seaton
Innovation Corridor)
12,300 12,300 63 194
Pickering East and
Pickering West
Employment Areas
3,300 600 18 34
Total Employment
Area 15,600 12,900 57 228
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2025. Seaton Employment Area forecast been
adjusted for absorption prior to 2024.
7.2.5 Employment Area Land Needs
As previously discussed, the City is forecast to accommodate 22,200 jobs in
Employment Areas from 2024 to 2051, primarily in employment lands. As summarized
in Figure 7-12, the City’s Employment Areas are expected to have the capacity to
accommodate 15,600 jobs. Consequently, an additional 6,600 jobs need to be
accommodated. Based on a density of 28 jobs per hectare, this would require
approximately 235 gross developable hectares (581 acres) of Employment Area land.
This aligns with the findings of the D.R.O.P. and Envision Durham, which also identified
that the City of Pickering needs 235 gross developable hectares for Employment Area
land. Based on a review of recent development in the Seaton Innovation Corridor, the
assumed average Employment Area density as set out under the D.R.O.P. appears
high. It is further noted that the lower average density achieved on the occupied
employment lands places upward pressure on the remaining vacant lands to achieve
the same targeted density for the entire Seaton Employment Area as set out in the
D.R.O.P. As a result, the City may need to utilize lands within the Northeast Pickering
Area sooner than anticipated. Trends in integrated industrial operations with office
uses, however, could provide opportunities for the City to maintain higher density levels.
The City should continue to monitor its Employment Area land supply to ensure an
adequate supply of shovel-ready lands is maintained.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 108
Figure 7-12
City of Pickering
Employment Area Land Needs, 2024 to 2051
Employment Area Lands Calculation Land Needs
(Hectares)
Total Employment, 2024 to 2051 A 22,200
Accommodated in Existing Employment Areas
(Seaton Innovation Corridor, Pickering East Employment
Area and Pickering West Employment Area)
B 15,600
Employment Growth Not Accommodated in
Employment Areas C = A – B 6,600
Employment Density (jobs per gross hectare) D 28
Employment Area Land Required (gross
hectares) North East Pickering Area E = C / D 235
Note: The above is consistent with the results of Envision Durham.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., 2025.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 109
8. Designated Growth Area Employment Area
Analysis – Focus on Seaton
In response to recent changes to provincial policy with respect to planning for
Employment Areas, this chapter provides a detailed planning framework for Pickering’s
D.G.A. Employment Areas with a focus on the Seaton Employment Area. This review is
necessary as it is recognized that the key issues and policy approach will differ when
addressing the City’s established Employment Areas in South Pickering, in contrast to
the developing Employment Areas in Seaton and future planned Employment Areas in
Northeast Pickering. While the City’s Employment Areas in South Pickering are largely
developed, Seaton’s planned Employment Areas have yet to be fully established with
many sites still vacant at the time of writing this report.
For Employment Areas in South Pickering’s Urban Area, a key planning and economic
development policy focus largely relates to the protection of established industrial uses
from land use conflicts caused by encroachment of neighbouring non-industrial uses.
The approach for established Employment Area should also recognize the importance
of planning policies, tools and other considerations which promote connectivity to non-
industrial uses, amenities and services that directly support and enhance the function of
industrial operations within these areas. Lastly, the approach to addressing removals in
established Employment Areas will need to consider how previously permitted uses,
including major office uses, will be accommodated elsewhere in the City where existing
Employment Areas are preserved for manufacturing, warehousing, and ancillary uses.
For establishing and planned Employment Areas, such as those in Seaton and
Northeast Pickering, the current planning approach requires foresight to ensure that
lands are appropriately protected and designated with the context of evolving industry
trends, urban land requirements and planning policy. Similar to established Employment
Areas, the planning and economic development approach should encourage adaptable
policies, tools and services which promote synergies between industrial and non-
industrial uses with the goal of maximizing the competitiveness and functionality of the
Employment Area over the long-term.
In light of the above, a key priority for the City of Pickering G.M.S. is to provide a revised
planning framework for the City’s Employment Areas in response to recent changes to
provincial planning policy as well as evolving industry needs. As previously noted, this
chapter provides an in-depth review of the impacts of provincial policy and non-
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 110
residential market changes for the Seaton Employment Area. Building on this
discussion, Chapter 9 provides further planning policy direction for Employment Areas
for the City of Pickering as a whole.
8.1 What is the Long-Term Vision for the Seaton
Employment Area?
As originally set out in the Central Pickering Development Plan (C.P.D.P.), the Seaton
Employment Area has been planned to play a significant role in accommodating high
quality employment opportunities, which reflect the needs of the City of Pickering and
Durham Region over the next several decades.[89] According to Envision Durham, the
Seaton Urban Area has been planned to accommodate 30,500 jobs by the year 2051
with an ultimate buildout employment target of 35,000 jobs. The Seaton Employment
Area is planned to accommodate approximately 14,400 jobs, representing 47% of the
total jobs in Seaton by 2051 (9,400 E.L.E. + 2,400 M.O.E. + 2,600 P.R.E.). The
remaining 53% of employment in Seaton is planned within Community designations.
Figure 8-1 provides a summary of the employment forecast for the Seaton Employment
Area by 2051 by major land use category.[90]
[89] Central Pickering Development Plan (C.P.D.P.), August 2012. It is noted that the
C.P.D.P. was revoked by the Ontario Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing
(M.M.A.H.) in 2022 pursuant to subjection 4(8) of the Ontario Planning and
Development Act, 1994.
[90] Employment Lands Employment (E.L.E.) largely comprises industrial employment
related to warehousing and transportation, manufacturing, and utilities. A minor share
of non-industrial uses associated or ancillary to the primary industrial use is also
accommodated in the E.L.E. forecast.
- Major Office Employment (M.O.E.) comprises stand-alone office buildings 1,900 sq.m
(20,000 sq.ft.) and greater.
- Population-Related Employment (P.R.E.) is largely driven by opportunities associated
with commercial retail and institutional sectors, in addition to office buildings under
1,900 sq.m (20,000 sq.ft.), and work from home employment.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 111
Figure 8-1
Seaton Employment Forecast by Major Employment Category, 2051
Year
Employment
Lands
Employment
(E.L.E.)
Major Office
Employment
(M.O.E.)
Population-
Related
Employment
(P.R.E.)
Total
Employment
2051 9,400 2,400 18,700 30,500
Note: Figure may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Figure 8-2 illustrates the geographic extent of the Seaton Employment Area as set out
in Schedule 1 (sheet 2) of the City of Pickering O.P. A total of 245 net hectares[91] of
land are designated within Seaton as Employment Area lands along the Highway 407
corridor from immediately east of Highway 30 (York-Durham Line) to Highway 1 (Brock
Road). In accordance with the City of Pickering O.P., the Seaton Employment Areas
are largely designated as Prestige Employment Area (denoted in blue in Schedule 1,
sheet 2 of the Pickering OP.). The land use focus of these lands is prestige industrial,
complemented by M.O.E., business supportive employment and community, cultural
and recreational uses as deemed appropriate.[92]
[91] Net land area has been adjusted for non-developable lands, long-term land vacancy and local infrastructure.
[92] City of Pickering Official Plan Edition 9, section 3.8., p. 65.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 112
Figure 8-2
City of Pickering
Seaton Secondary Plan Area
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. based on City of Pickering G.I.S. data.
The Seaton Employment Area also includes two areas designated Employment Nodes,
which differ from the Prestige Employment designation. These Employment Nodes are
envisioned to develop as corporate office business parks, with a focus on office uses,
including free-standing major office buildings and/or employment uses which integrate
office and prestige industrial operations in the same building. These lands are also
supported by business employment and limited personal service uses serving the area.
These two Employment Nodes are located in Neighbourhood 20: Thompson’s Corners
and Neighborhood 21: Seaton Innovation Corridor. These lands are shown in purple in
Schedules XII and XIII of the Pickering O.P. and are illustrated below in Figures 8-3 and
8-4. Sections 8.6 and 8.7, herein, provide a detailed description of these lands and their
long-term employment growth potential, which is the primary focus of this chapter.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 113
Figure 8-3
City of Pickering
Seaton Urban Area
Neighborhood 20: Thompson’s Corners Neighborhood Plan
Source: City of Pickering Official Plan, Edition 9, Chapter 12, Schedule XII
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 114
Figure 8-4
City of Pickering
Seaton Urban Area
Neighborhood 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor
Source: City of Pickering Official Plan, Edition 9, Chapter 12, Schedule XIII
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 115
There are two related factors which require the long-term vision for the Seaton
Employment Area to be re-examined as part of this G.M.S. process. The first factor
relates to changes to provincial planning policy with respect to the definition of
Employment Area. The second factor relates to evolving non-residential real estate
market conditions, which were accelerated during COVID-19 pandemic, most notably in
the office sector. Each of these factors, which impact the long-term approach to
planning for the Seaton Employment Area, and more broadly for the City of Pickering,
are described in further detail below.
8.2 Changing Provincial Planning Policy Direction
Regarding Employment Areas
As previously discussed in Chapter 2, under the new provincial definition of
Employment Area, the City of Pickering, along with all other Ontario municipalities, is
required to plan for and protect industrial uses based on a more narrowly scoped
definition of Employment Area and is limited to uses which are primarily industrial in
nature, or other uses associated or ancillary to the primary use. As noted in Chapter 2,
under the P.P.S., 2024, municipalities are provided with greater control over
Employment Area conversions (now referred to as Employment Area removals) with the
ability to remove lands from Employment Areas at any time. Lands that do not meet the
Employment Area definition would not be subject to provincial Employment Area
protection policies and may allow opportunities for residential and other non-
employment uses.[93] It is important to note that the provincial policy change does not
result in a change to forecast demand for employment by sector in Pickering. It does,
however, have an impact on the nature in which these jobs are accommodated by land
use designation.
The P.P.S., 2024, further underscores the need to concentrate office development in
M.T.S.A.s and other S.G.A.s. It states, “Major office and major institutional
development should be directed to major transit station areas or other strategic growth
areas where frequent transit service is available.”[94] Employment Areas, which have
previously been significant for office development in the suburban municipalities of the
G.T.H.A., are no longer recognized for this purpose under the P.P.S., 2024. The new
policy direction for Employment Areas emphasizes industrial uses as the primary use,
[93] Provincial Planning Statement, 2024, definitions, p. 34.
[94] Ibid., policy 2.8.1.4, p. 13.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 116
with office use as a secondary use.[95] The change in the focus of provincial planning
policy restricts the locations where offices can be established. Therefore, municipalities
must take strategic measures to protect lands that have the highest potential for office
use.
8.3 Navigating the Vision for Seaton in the Face of Evolving
Office Real Estate Market Conditions
In addition to the above-mentioned change to provincial planning policy in Ontario,
COVID-19 has accelerated changes in work and commerce as a result of technological
disruptions which were already taking place prior to the pandemic. Businesses are
increasingly required to rethink the way they conduct business with an increased
emphasis on remote work enabled by technologies such as virtual private networks,
virtual meetings, cloud technology, artificial intelligence, and other remote work
collaboration tools. As previously discussed in Chapters 3 and 6, these disruptive
forces continue to broadly impact the nature of employment by place of work and sector
and have a direct influence on office and industrial space needs.
These recent trends in the office sector have resulted in downward pressure on the
gross floor area required for office space (resulting in higher office vacancy rates) and
also placed a greater emphasis on supplying higher quality office space in amenity-rich
areas with good transportation access, most notably areas that are served by frequent
transit. In light of these evolving changes in the nature of work, there is a growing need
for employers (working with public and private sector partners) to provide compelling
reasons for employees to come into the office, by providing a modern workplace with
comfortable amenities, improving transportation access to reduce commute times, and
providing a workplace location that supports retail, leisure, and recreational
opportunities. With less emphasis on the quantity of space, employers are moving
towards less space with a greater focus on quality and access to on-site and off-site
amenities. [96]
As a result of these structural changes in the office real estate market, combined with
provincial planning policy direction to direct M.O.E. to M.T.S.A.s or other S.G.A.s where
[95] Ibid., policy 2.8.2, p. 14.
[96] Colliers International, The hybrid equation: what drives employees to the office?
June 2023.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 117
frequent transit service is available, the long-term employment forecast for Seaton by
major sector and land use category has been re-examined. As summarized below in
Figure 8-5, the M.O.E. forecast for Seaton has been reduced from approximately 2,400
to 500 jobs.
In accordance with provincial planning policy direction, approximately 500 forecast
M.O.E. jobs within the Seaton Employment Area have been redirected to S.G.A.s in
South Pickering where existing office clusters currently exist. In addition, approximately
1,000 M.O.E. jobs have been recategorized to work at home employment within Seaton
and 400 within South Pickering. This brings the total Employment Area forecast for
Seaton down to 12,500 (9,400 E.L.E. + 500 M.O.E. + 2,600 P.R.E). [97] It is important to
note the city-wide total long-term employment forecast of 93,800 jobs in 2051 remains
consistent with Envision Durham.
Assuming an average office employment density of 95 to 130 jobs per gross hectare,
this reduction of close to 2,000 M.O.E. jobs results in a reduction of approximately 15 to
20 gross hectares of Employment Area land required in the Seaton Employment Area,
subject to average density assumptions for M.O.E.
Figure 8-5
Revised Seaton Employment Forecast by Major Employment Category, 2051
Year
Employment
Lands
Employment
(E.L.E.)
Major Office
Employment
(M.O.E.)
Population
Related
Employment
(P.R.E.)
Total
Employment
2051 9,400 500 19,700 29,600
Note: Figures may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
8.4 Planning for Employment Areas within Provincial and
Local Planning Policy Framework
Under Section 1, sub (1) of the Planning Act, and “Area of Employment” means:
[97] It is noted that a portion of the jobs in the Seaton Employment Area currently included as P.R.E. will no longer be categorized
as Employment Area as per the P.P.S., 2024 upon removal.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 118
“An area of land designated in an official plan for clusters of business and economic
uses, including, those being uses that meet the following criteria:
1 The uses consist of business and economic uses, other than uses referred to in
paragraph 2, including any of the following:
I. manufacturing.
II. Used related to research and development in connection with
manufacturing anything.
III. Warehousing uses, including uses related to the movement of goods.
IV. Retail uses and office uses that are associated with uses mentioned in
subparagraphs i to iii,
V. Facilities that are ancillary to the uses mentioned in subparagraphs i to iv.
VI. Any other prescribed business and economic uses.
2 The uses are not any of the following uses:
I. Institutional uses.
II. Commercial, including retail and office uses not referred to in
subparagraph 1 iv.
Section 2.8.2 of the P.P.S., 2024 sets out specific policies regarding the planning of
Employment Areas, requiring that planning authorities protect and preserve such areas
for current and future use. Section 2.8.3 of the PPS, 2024, states:
“Planning authorities shall designate, protect and plan for all employment areas in
settlement areas by:
a) planning for employment area uses over the long-term that require those
locations including manufacturing, research and development in connection with
manufacturing, warehousing and goods movement, and associated retail and
office uses and ancillary facilities;
b) prohibiting residential uses, commercial uses, public service facilities and other
institutional uses;
c) prohibiting retail and office uses that are not associated with the primary
employment use;
d) prohibiting other sensitive land uses that are not ancillary to uses permitted in the
employment area; and
e) Including an appropriate transition to adjacent non-employment areas to ensure
land use compatibility and economic viability.”
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 119
As emphasized in the D.R.O.P. and City of Pickering O.P., Employment Areas form a
vital component of the land use structure in Durham and Pickering and form an integral
part of the local economic development potential of the Region and City. Through the
development of their Employment Area land base, Durham and Pickering is better
positioned to build more balanced, complete, and competitive communities. Thus, a
healthy balance between residential and non-residential development is considered an
important policy objective for the Region and City. Accordingly, it is critical that all
Employment Areas in Durham and Pickering are planned in a manner that aims to
promote economic competitiveness, attract employment growth, and maximize
employment density and land utilization, where appropriate.
It is broadly recognized that it is important to protect designated Employment Areas
over the long term, because they provide the opportunity to accommodate employment
uses that cannot be easily accommodated in other areas of the City. Notwithstanding
their importance, protecting Employment Areas in a municipality can be challenging
without adequate consideration regarding the requirements that support their success.
For this reason, it is important to consider the local conditions that support the function
and marketability of Employment Areas within the broader context of local and
provincial protection policies.
If not carefully evaluated, the removal of Employment Area lands to non-employment
uses can potentially lead to negative impacts to the City’s economy in several ways.
Firstly, inappropriate Employment Area removals can reduce employment opportunities,
particularly in export-based sectors, creating local imbalances between population and
employment. Secondly, employment removals can potentially erode Employment Area
land supply and lead to further removal/re-designation pressure as a result of
encroachment of non-employment uses within or adjacent to Employment Areas.
Finally, inappropriate Employment Area removals can potentially fragment existing
Employment Areas and/or reduce their size (i.e., critical mass), undermining their
functionality and competitive position. Ultimately, inappropriate Employment Area
removals may reduce the City’s ability to attract, accommodate and retain certain
industrial uses.
As previously discussed throughout this report, structural changes in the broader
economy and the nature of how we work continue to alter the nature of economic
activities in Employment Areas as well as impact the built form, siting requirements and
character of these lands. Given the potential negative impacts resulting from the
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 120
inappropriate removals of Employment Areas, it is recognized that there is a need to
preserve such designated lands within the City of Pickering. It is also recognized that
under some circumstances an Employment Area removal may be justified for planning
and economic reasons, provided such decisions are made using a systematic approach
and methodology.
8.5 Employment Area Removals
Changes to the designation of a site identified as “Employment” in the City of Pickering
O.P., to allow for uses not permitted under the revised and more narrowed definition of
an Employment Area is considered an Employment Area land removal in accordance
with the PPS, 2024. Section 2.8.2.5 of the P.P.S., 2024 states:
“Planning authorities may remove lands from employment areas only where it has
been demonstrated that:
a) there is an identified need for the removal and the land is not required for
employment area uses over the long term the proposed uses would not
negatively impact the overall viability of the employment area by:
1. avoiding, or where avoidance is not possible, minimizing and mitigating
potential impacts to existing or planned employment area uses in
accordance with policy 3.5;
2. maintaining access to major goods movement facilities and corridors;
b) existing or planned infrastructure and public service facilities are available to
accommodate the proposed uses; and
c) the municipality has sufficient employment lands to accommodate projected
employment growth to the horizon of the approved official plan.”
Section 2.8.2.5 (above) builds on the previous Employment Area conversion policies as
set out in section 1.3.2.5 of the P.P.S., 2020, with additional emphasis provided with
respect to viability in terms of land use compatibility and access (2.8.2.5. (b), as well as
new criteria requiring a municipality to ensure there is a sufficient amount of land supply
of Employment lands over the long-term. In 2020, as part of the Envision Durham
process, Durham Regional staff, in conjunction with their Consultant Team, established
a supplementary evaluation framework consisting of principles and criteria to be applied
when evaluating potential Employment Area conversions. This evaluation framework
reflects D.RO.P. planning policy objectives as well as local physical considerations
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 121
regarding employment lands development, including but not limited to site
characteristics (e.g. size, physical constraints, access, connectively and configuration),
land-use compatibility issues, economic viability, infrastructure and municipal interests.
A description of the conversion criteria approved by Durham Region Council on June
24, 2020, can be found in Staff Report #2020-P-11 dated June 2, 2020.[98] This
conversion criteria was established to support the site-by-site review of 45 active
proposed Employment Area conversion sites (plus additional sites that were not part of
a private request but consideration for conversion) to determine if a conversion to a
non-employment use is appropriate and justified from a planning, economic/market
demand and long-term urban land needs perspective.
As previously noted, a number of changes have occurred with respect to the provincial
framework regarding Employment Areas since the completion of the Region’s
Employment Area review under the Envision Durham M.C.R. process. Notwithstanding
these changes, the overarching Employment Area conversion framework established
through Envision Durham remains applicable within the context of the current provincial
planning framework.
8.5.1 Guiding Principles for Evaluating Employment Area Removals
As part of the Envision Durham process a set of guiding principles were established for
reviewing Employment Area removals based on provincial policy direction, and
incorporating best practices for the planning, protection and development Employment
Areas. The following guiding principles were established:
a. Protect Employment Areas in proximity to major transportation corridors and
goods movement infrastructure to ensure businesses have access to a
transportation network that safely and efficiently moves goods and services.
b. Maintain the configuration, location and contiguous nature of Employment Areas
in order to prevent fragmentation and provide business supportive environments.
c. Provide a variety of Employment Area lands in order to improve market supply
potential and Regional attractiveness to a variety of employment sectors and
business sizes.
d. Maintain or improve the employment function and job potential of Employment
Areas.
[98] Envision Durham – Growth Management Study – Release of Region-Wide Growth Analysis Technical Report
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 122
8.5.2 Employment Area Evaluation Criteria
To satisfy provincial policy and implement the previously noted guiding principles
established as part of the Envision Durham process, evaluation criteria were also
established to be used to systematically evaluate requests for Employment Area
conversion. Several of the criteria established continue to reflect provincial direction
under section 2.8.2.5 regarding Employment Area removals.
Additional Employment Area removal criteria were also established with respect to local
site-specific considerations not specified in the P.P.S. As previously noted under the
P.P.S. 2024, additional details have been added under section 2.8.2.5 pertaining to land
use compatibility, access and Employment Area need the long-term sufficiency of the
Employment Area land supply within a municipality. Notwithstanding these additional
details provided in the P.P.S., 2024, the added local criteria established by Durham
Region under the Envision Durham process is still appropriate. This criteria considers
local Employment Area attributes and other matters that are not addressed under
section 2.8.2.5 of the P.P.S., 2024. As previously noted, this includes local criteria
related to site size, physical constraints, access, connectivity and configuration, land
use compatibility issues, economic viability infrastructure, and local municipal interests.
A key emphasis of the localized criteria relates to the quality of Employment Area lands.
This approach recognizes that in certain circumstances an Employment Area removal
may be recommended in the face of a localized or municipal-wide Employment Area
land need shortfall by 2051, if determined that the local site attributes of the subject
lands do not support a feasible long-term outcome for industrial-type development. In
contrast, a removal may not be deemed viable in the context of an Employment Area
surplus if it is determined that the local site attributes of the subject lands support a
feasible long-term outcome for industrial-type development.
Building on the previous Employment Area conversion criteria established under
Envision Durham, the following updated criteria are recommended to be applied in the
City of Pickering when assessing sites for Employment Area removal:
a. To satisfy Provincial Planning Statement policy, it must be demonstrated that the
land is not required for employment purposes over the long term and that there is
a need for the conversion
b. To satisfy Provincial Planning Statement policy, it must be demonstrated that:
• There is a need for the conversion.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 123
• The lands are not required over the horizon of the Growth Plan for the
employment purposes for which they are designated.
• The municipality will maintain sufficient employment lands to
accommodate forecast employment growth to the horizon of the Pickering
O.P.
• The proposed uses would not adversely affect the overall viability of the
Employment Area or the achievement of the minimum intensification and
density targets in the Pickering O.P., as well any other applicable policies.
• There are existing or planned infrastructure and public service facilities to
accommodate the proposed uses.
c. The removal of the site does not impede direct access to major transportation
corridors and goods movement infrastructure.
d. The site is located outside or on the fringe of an assembly of Employment Areas.
e. The site offers limited market supply potential for Employment Area development
due to size, configuration, access, physical conditions, and/or servicing
constraints, etc.
f. The proposed removal to non-employment uses is compatible with surrounding
land use permissions and potential land use conflicts can be mitigated.
g. The removal of the proposed site to non-employment uses would not
compromise the overall supply of large Employment Area sites at the City of
Pickering level.
h. The request for removal demonstrates total job yield of the site can be
maintained or improved.
i. The removal request is supported by City of Pickering staff/Council and does not
conflict with municipal interests and policies.
j. The removal of the site would not present negative cross-jurisdictional impacts
that could not be overcome.
The above revised criteria are recommended to be used to evaluate submissions and to
provide an indication of whether or not a site is suitable for removal as an Employment
Area within the City of Pickering. The criteria evaluation, paired with a qualitative
assessment, is recommended be used to form staff recommendations on requests for
Employment Area removals.
The following section provides an examination of the Seaton Prestige Employment
Nodes within the context provincial and local planning policy direction, forecast
employment demand by major land use category within the Seaton Employment Area,
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 124
the site-specific physical attributes of these Employment Nodes as well as existing
development activity/interests on the subject lands and surrounding area.
8.6 Planning Considerations for Neighborhood 20:
Thompson’s Corners, Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige
Employment Node
As previously illustrated in Figure 8-3 (section 8.1 herein) this Employment Node is
located at the eastern limit of the Seaton Employment Area in Neighborhood 20:
Thompson’s Corners, hereafter referred to as the Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige
Employment Node. The subject lands are located directly west of the Highway 407
interchange at Brock Road, and directly north and south of the Highway 407 corridor.
Neighborhood 20 also contains lands designated Prestige Employment Area, located
directly west of the Prestige Employment Node on the north side of the Highway 407
corridor. These lands, denoted in blue in Figure 8-3, are not subject to a review as part
of this study.
As previously noted, the Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node is a
gateway location into the Seaton Employment Area and the broader Pickering
community. The Pickering O.P. limits manufacturing uses in the node and permits
office uses, personal service uses, convenience commercial, restaurants and financial
institutions which are ancillary to and serve the employment area.
The local attributes of Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node support
this vision and a focus away from larger-scale, stand-alone industrial development
within this area given the local attributes of these lands, including;
• Direct access and visibility to Highway 407 and the Brock Road interchange;
• Smaller parcel sizes which are less marketable to industrial operations that are
land extensive;
• Fragmentation of lands by the extensiveness of the designated Seaton Natural
Heritage System surrounding this area. Ultimately, this fragmentation limits
opportunities for parcel consolidation, further limiting the marketability of these
lands for land extensive industrial uses; and
• Limited connectivity of this area to the broader Seaton Employment Area lands,
and the close proximity to residential and mixed-use lands planned within
Thompson’s Corners.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 125
Given the direct accessibility and high visibility of these lands from Highway 407 and
Brock Rd., these lands provide the opportunity to function as a gateway designation
within the eastern entrance into the Seaton Community, serving both the Seaton
Employment Area lands to the immediate west and the Community Area lands to the
south. In accordance with the local attributes of this area described above, the Brock
Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node remains a marketable location to a
range of commercial and employment supportive uses.
Notwithstanding the existing market potential of this area for office and employment
supportive employment uses, it is recognized that long-term demand for free-standing
office space within the Seaton Employment Area, which is directed to the Prestige
Employment Area Nodes, has diminished. This weakened demand became particularly
evident since the onset of COVID-19, due to a shift towards increased work at home
and hybrid work within the office sector as previously noted throughout this report.
Considering the recent changes in provincial planning policy direction, previously
outlined in this chapter, many of the permitted uses envisions for the Brock
Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node are no longer permitted in the definition
of an Employment Area. Accordingly, it is recommended that the Prestige Employment
Node be further reviewed during the O.P.R. in the context of the new Provincial policy
limitations and the intent of the planned function of the lands, specifically adjacent to
residential and mixed-use developments. This may require the City to reconsider the
Employment Area designation for these lands as set out in Schedule I of the O.P. While
this G.M.S. provides broad planning policy direction for the City of Pickering and the
Seaton Urban Area, it is noted that the specific land use designations for these subject
lands have not been specifically determined as part of this exercise.
While the G.M.S. does not provide specific land use designation recommendations, it is
noted that the Province announced, in 2024, funding for a future post acute care
rehabilitation hospital within Lakeridge Health in the City of Pickering. While no site
location has been announced, the employment node lands at Brock Road/Highway 407
could provide an opportunity to accommodate such a use. The use would benefit from
many of the current objectives of the Pickering O.P., including high visibility and
connectiveness to major transportation networks and allow for ancillary uses that would
benefit the surrounding employment and non-employment uses in the community.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 126
8.6.1 Addressing a Minor Reduction in Employment Area Land Need
for Seaton Employment Area
Given the relatively high average employment density associated with free-standing
office development, the reduction of approximately 1,900 M.O.E. jobs in the Seaton
Employment Area is not anticipated to have a significant impact on the long-term urban
land requirements for the Seaton Employment Area. This downward adjustment to the
M.O.E. forecast for Seaton, however, does result in a small reduction in the non-
residential land need for the Seaton Employment Area of approximately 15 to 20 gross
hectares of land associated with free-standing office development, which has been
directed to the Employment Nodes in the Seaton Employment Area.[99] As previously
discussed, Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Area Node is unlikely to
evolve as a location with a significant cluster of free-standing office development over
the long-term. As part of this G.M.S exercise, it has been determined that sufficient
urban land has been assigned within the remaining lands in the Brock Road/Highway
407 Prestige Employment Node to accommodate land demand associated with
employment supportive and other non-industrial uses identified for this area.
Accordingly, it is recommended that approximately 15 to 20 hectares of land within
Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node should be evaluated for removal
to a non-residential use subject to an assessment of long-term need.
8.6.2 Planning for Employment Supportive and Office Uses
As previously noted, in accordance with the revised Planning Act definition of
Employment Area, permitted retail development is limited to ancillary uses which are
associated with the primary industrial uses permitted within Employment Areas. This
revised provincial planning policy direction not only presents a more restrictive
framework regarding permitted non-industrial land uses in Employment Areas but also
requires that new consideration is given to the clustering of employment supportive
uses in highly visible and accessible gateway locations which are situated within
proximity to Employment Areas.
Again, it is important to recognize that recent changes to provincial planning legislation
and policy have not changed the broader growth outlook for employment by sector and
associated urban land need within the City of Pickering. These changes, however,
[99] Land area removal range to residential land use is subject to density range
associated with Major Office employment.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 127
have resulted in the need to reconsider the direction of employment, particularly office
uses, within the context of the City’s urban structure and land use hierarchy.
In contrast to the above, lower demand for new office space resulting from increased
work at home and hybrid office workers does have an impact on the long-term
employment forecast and associated urban land requirements in the Seaton
Employment Area. More specifically, this change in market conditions is anticipated to
result in a long-term reduction in demand for office employment and result in a modest
reduction in the amount urban land required to accommodate M.O.E. in the Seaton
Employment Area, which is directed to the Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige Node and
the Whites Road and 407 Interchange within the Pickering Innovation Corridor.
While the vision for the Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Area Node has
evolved, the long-term land need for employment supportive uses and associated land
requirements has not materially changed as a result of the recent planning policy
changes or market conditions discussed above. As previously noted, the physical
attributes of this Employment Node continue to make this area well suited and
marketable as gateway designation to the Seaton Employment Area. As a gateway
designation, the Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node provides an
opportunity to accommodate employment services with good connectivity to the
Prestige Employment Area to the immediate west and ultimately allows for the creation
of a more complete Employment Area in Seaton. In turn, such employment supportive
uses help improve the functionality of the Employment Area and quality of life for
employees by offering them access to services/amenities before or after work, or over
lunch. In concert with this approach is the design of Employment Areas to be more
pedestrian and transit-friendly such that employees can more easily access
services/amenities which can help to reduce and/or shorten the number of trips via
private automobile. Accordingly, it is recommended that a new Gateway Employment
designation is explored for a portion of the lands within the Brock Road/Highway 407
Prestige Employment Area Node.
8.6.3 Accommodating Commercial and Institutional Uses Previously
Permitted in Seaton Employment Areas
An important consideration when planning for establishing Employment Areas, such as
those in Seaton, is the displacement of commercial and institutional operations,
including community, cultural and recreational uses, that will no longer be permitted
within the Prestige Employment Area designation under the P.P.S., 2024. To address
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 128
this issue, the designated Employment Nodes within Seaton can provide a potential
land base to accommodate these previously permitted uses within the Seaton Prestige
Employment Area designation as previously discussed in section 8.6.1. Considerations
could also be given to broadening the range of permitted uses with the Brock
Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Area Node pertaining to a range of
knowledge-based commercial and institutional sectors.
It is anticipated that the development of stand-alone knowledge-based commercial and
institutional uses in this area would also to generate local demand for employment
related to retail, accommodation and food as well as other personal services on
neighbouring lands within this Prestige Employment Node. This demand is anticipated
to partially off-set the reduced local demand for employment supportive uses resulting
from the reduction in the major office employment forecast within this area.
To accommodate the displacement of previously permitted commercial and institutional
uses in the Prestige Employment Area, as well as to address demand associated with a
potentially broader range of free-standing commercial and institutional uses in the Brock
Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Area Node, it is anticipated that most of the
lands within Seaton Employment Node designation will remain needed for non-
residential uses.
It is recognized the planned vision for this area would no longer meet the definition of an
Employment Area under the P.P.S., 2024. Accordingly, it is recommended that these
lands are evaluated for Employment removal under the framework set out in section
8.5. To ensure that these lands are developed with a focus on local employment
generation which supports the broader Seaton Employment Area, it is recommended
that the City introduces appropriate policies within the O.P. supporting their protection.
Figure 8-6 illustrates the existing and proposed broad land-use context within the Brock
Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 129
Figure 8-6
Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node
Lands Under Consideration for Employment Area Removal
Notes: The above sites require review due to parcel size and location adjacent sensitive land
uses.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., using base mapping from the Official Plan
Schedule: Neighborhood 20: Thompson’s Corners Neighborhood Plan.
8.7 Planning Considerations for Neighborhood 21:
Pickering Innovation Corridor
As previously identified in Figure 8-4 (section 8.1 herein) this Employment Node is
located at the center of the Seaton Employment Area in Neighbourhood 21: Pickering
Innovation Corridor, hereafter referred to as the Whites Road/Highway 407 Prestige
Employment Node. This area is bound by Duffins Creek to the west, Highway 7 to the
north, the Seaton Natural Heritage System east of Sideline 22 to the east and the
Seaton Natural Heritage System to the south. The Whites Road/Highway 407 Prestige
Employment Node is envisioned in the City of Pickering O.P. as a corporate office
Lands Designated Prestige
Employment Node Under
Consideration for
Employment Area Removal
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 130
business park, with a focus on office uses, including free-standing major office buildings
and/or uses which integrate office and prestige industrial operations in the same
building.
The Whites Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node supports this vision as a
corporate office business park within this area given the local attributes of these lands,
including;
• High visible to Highway 407;
• Offers direct access to Highway 407 via a full interchange Whites Road (Sideline
26);
• Connectivity to the broader Seaton Employment lands;
• Provides a concentration of large and small parcels; and
• Adequate separation from sensitive non-employment uses.
As previously noted, the Employment Node designation limits stand-alone industrial
development, but permits uses which integrate industrial and office space in the same
building.
Given the physical attributes of these lands, the Prestige Employment Node within the
Pickering Innovation Corridor remains highly marketable for stand-alone office uses
and/or prestige industrial developments, which include an integration of industrial and
office uses. This vision for the Pickering Innovation Corridor is still largely attainable,
recognizing that the long-term demand for free-standing office development is now
lower than previously anticipated. Similar to the Brock Road/Highway 407 Prestige
Employment Node, potential modifications to the long-term vision for the Seaton
Innovation Corridor, in particular the Prestige Employment Node, should reflect that the
fundamental vision for this area is evolving but has not completely changed.
Accordingly, it is recognized that there is a need to refine the vision for this area but not
replace it.
As a starting point as part of this G.M.S., the following considerations are provided for
the subject lands within the context current development activity and interests, the long-
term employment outlook for the Seaton Employment Area and the long-term need for
lands to support the broad land-use planning and economic development objectives for
the Seaton Innovation Corridor Employment Node.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 131
8.7.1 The Northern Portion of the Prestige Employment Node is
Developing as a Prestige Employment Area
As outlined in Figure 8-7 (below), the northwestern block of the Seaton Employment
Corridor, including the lands designated Prestige Employment Node and Prestige
Employment extending directly west of the Highway 407/Whites Road interchange to
North Rd. is currently under development by Caplink Ltd. to build a 23 hectare food
manufacturing campus to be operated by a baked goods company, F.G.F. Brands. The
development will include approximately 97,000 sq.m of integrated industrial, office and
training facilities distributed amongst five buildings. In addition to the Caplink Ltd.
development, there continues to be significant development interest in the Seaton
Employment Corridor, including the lands within the Employment Node. However, no
applications have been submitted to date.
8.7.2 Retain the Southwest Quadrant as a Prestige Employment
Node
Within the southwest quadrant of the subject area, it is recommended that the lands
remain for major office uses, maintaining the visions of the Prestige Employment Node
designation. As demonstrated above, the Prestige Employment Node within the
Pickering Innovation Corridor remains a marketable location to attract and
accommodate free-standing office uses, integrated industrial and office uses, limited
personal service uses, as well as community, cultural and recreational uses, as
permitted under the City of Pickering O.P.
While the P.P.S., 2024 directs free-standing office uses to S.G.A.s, in some cases office
uses may not be easily accommodated in such areas where land availability is limited,
making siting of such developments more challenging. Furthermore, certain office uses
also may include a hybrid of uses which could include an integration of office uses and
light industrial uses or assembly, or office uses which combine product showcasing (for
example: automobiles, other motorized vehicles, furniture, etc.), which can have siting
and accessibility impacts that cannot be easily addressed in intensification areas.
Providing market choice for free-standing office development within both intensification
areas and greenfield areas can help provide solutions to address the potential
constraints identified above, thereby improving the competitive position of the City in its
ability to attract new industries.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 132
It is recognized that lands designated Prestige Employment Node, which permits free-
standing office uses, would no longer meet the definition of an Employment Area under
the P.P.S., 2024. To ensure that these lands are developed with a focus on local
employment generation and support to the broader Seaton Employment Area, it is
recommended that the City introduces appropriate policies within the O.P. supporting
their protection.
8.7.3 The Southeast Quadrant of the Prestige Employment Node
Provides Opportunity to Support the Seaton Employment Area
Building on the direction of the City of Pickering O.P., and the previous discussion
provided in this chapter it is recognized that clustering an adequate mix of employment-
supportive land uses adjacent to Employment Areas, which permit uses such as retail,
personal services as well as accommodation and food, can strengthen such areas by
providing amenities and services to convenient employees and employers. Provided
that north of Highway 407 the Whites Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node
remains for employment uses, and the southwestern quadrant continues to allow for
major office uses, there will be a need for employment supportive uses. These uses
include personal service uses, convenience commercial, restaurants, financial
institutions, and service stations.
It is recommended that a new Gateway Employment designation is explored for this
area. Building on this direction, it is recommended that these lands are evaluated for
Employment Area removal under the framework set out in section 8.5.
8.7.4 Provide Sufficient Lands to Accommodate Public Service
Facilities in Seaton
A narrow definition of permitted employment uses in Employment Areas requires
municipalities to consider future land needs associated within public service facilities
such as community centres, fire halls, training centres and other uses, which are often
accommodated in Employment Areas. It is noted that the P.P.S., 2024 prohibits public
service facilities and other institutional uses in Employment Areas.[100]
While no longer permitted in Employment Areas, these community uses are necessary
to support the population growth planned for Seaton and represent a critical component
[100] Provincial Planning Statement, 2024. Section 2.8.2.3 b.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 133
to building healthy, inclusive and complete communities. Accordingly, a small portion of
the employment growth allocated to the Seaton Urban Area should be comprised of
institutional employment associated with permitted public service facilities as well as
community, culture and recreational uses.
Figure 8-7 illustrates the land-use context for the Whites Road/Highway 407 Prestige
Employment Node and surrounding Seaton Innovation Corridor, as well as the
proposed changes as discussed.
Figure 8-7
Whites Road/Highway 407 Prestige Employment Node and surrounding Seaton
Innovation Corridor
Note: Conceptual plans based on discussions with the City of Pickering Planning Staff.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd., using base mapping from the Official Plan
Schedule: Neighbourhood 21: Pickering Innovation Corridor.
8.8 Next Steps
It is recommended that all Employment Areas sites in Seaton identified for consideration
for removal are further reviewed and evaluated by applicants seeking a land use
redesignation in accordance with the recommended criteria provided in section 8.5.
Lands Designated Prestige Employment Node Under
Consideration for Prestige Employment Area Designation
Lands Designated Prestige Employment Node/Prestige
Employment Under Consideration for Employment Area
Removal
Consideration for
lands to remain
under Employment
Node Designation
Consideration for land
to be designated as
Prestige Employment
Consideration for
Employment Gateway
designation
Consideration for land
to be designated as
Prestige Employment
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 134
9. Policy Options and Recommendations
Building on the previous analysis in this report, the purpose of this section is to identify
key policy recommendations and options to inform the Official Plan Review (O.P.R.),
with respect to growth management. These options and recommendations were
developed based on a comprehensive review of the City’s in-effect O.P. against policy
requirements and direction in the P.P.S., 2024 and the former D.R.O.P. While Durham
Region no longer has planning responsibilities as of January 1, 2025, the D.R.O.P.
continues to be in force as an O.P. of the City until it is formally repealed by Pickering
City Council. Thus, it is imperative that D.R.O.P. policies are considered and, where
appropriate, carried forward in the City’s new or updated O.P.
In addition to required matters of consistency or conformity with provincial or former
Regional policies, WSP reviewed a selection of O.P.s from municipalities of similar
sizes and contexts to Pickering to gauge recent best practices in implementing policy
direction related to growth and intensification. This analysis informed the options and
recommendations below and can be found in Appendix F.
This Report presents various recommendations and options to address several key
policy topics, which are listed below. These recommendations and options are
supported by analysis of current gaps or conflicts with provincial or D.R.O.P. policies, as
well as opportunities to build on provincial/D.R.O.P. direction and best practices:
• Growth and housing forecasting
• Urban area boundaries and expansions
• Allocation of growth within urban areas
• Greenfield areas
• Residential growth
• Intensification and Strategic Growth Areas
• Employment Areas
Policy recommendations are intended to address these gaps or conflicts for upper tier
or legislative conformity.
Policy options are not necessary for conformity, but build on identified opportunities
and are provided for the City’s consideration as it moves forward on the O.P.R.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 135
9.1 Growth Forecasting
The population and employment growth forecasts referenced earlier in this report are
the basis for all land use and infrastructure planning in the City. As such, it is essential
that the City’s O.P. identify these forecasts to state the anticipated growth in Pickering.
9.1.1 Presentation of Population and Employment Forecasts, and
Neighbourhood Breakdowns
The City's in-effect O.P. forecasts population and employment to 2031, while
forecasting the D.R.O.P. is to 2051. As such, the O.P. is required to be updated to
reflect updated projections.
The in-effect O.P. identifies population and employment forecasts, which includes a
forecast for the South Pickering Urban Area, as well as neighbourhood specific
population forecasts, and an overall City Centre forecast. While the City has noted that
these forecasts are useful for many aspects of long-term planning and monitoring, they
are not easily implementable through the policies of the O.P. or other city planning
processes and may set unrealistic expectations for neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood
growth.
Based on a best practice review, generally, growth forecasts are shown on a city-wide
level rather than breaking them up into neighbourhoods or area within the municipality.
Recommendation: It is recommended to include population forecast and employment
forecast on a city-wide level to 2051, updated through this G.M.S.
Recommendation: The City should consider removing neighbourhood-level forecasts
in alignment with current best practices, but breakdown forecasts by South Pickering
Area, Seaton Area, and Northeast Pickering Area. The City can continue to
forecast/monitor neighbourhood growth internally. Removing the neighbourhood-level
forecasts lowers the risk of perceived conflict between the goals of the O.P. and how
growth actually occurs in those neighbourhoods.
9.1.2 Housing Forecasts
The City's in-effect O.P. does not identify housing forecasts at a city-wide level but does
include housing forecasts at a neighbourhood-by-neighbourhood level.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 136
Based on best practice review, some municipalities identify housing forecasts across
the entire municipality, but this is not a consistent trend. Furthermore, housing
forecasts, which are derived from population forecasts, are subject to higher potential
variance due to changing market trends, unit types, and persons per unit.
Option: The City’s O.P. can identify housing forecasts to 2051 at a city-wide level,
broken down by structure type (i.e. low density, medium density, and high density).
This can support long-term infrastructure planning to align transportation, infrastructure
and servicing with anticipated growth and ensure sufficient land is designated for
different housing types to meet projected demand. It can also help identify potential
housing supply gaps, allowing for targeted policies. It should be noted, however, that
housing demand can shift based on market trends, economic factors, etc. Housing
forecasts can also trigger pushback, particularly around intensification and density.
Additionally, to ensure forecasts are accurate, frequent updates and ongoing monitoring
is required.
Option: The City’s O.P. can include only population and employment forecasts. This
avoids the City committing to specific housing forecasts and allows policies to better
align with changing market conditions. A potential disadvantage to this approach is that
without housing forecasts to monitor against, there may be higher difficulty in identifying
supply shortages in housing types.
9.2 Urban Areas
Urban areas are those parts of the city where growth and supporting infrastructure
(water and wastewater servicing, community facilities, etc.) are concentrated. Drawing
boundaries around these areas and limiting growth outside them helps protect the city’s
agricultural system and natural areas, as well as make the most efficient use of
infrastructure and support the achievement of complete communities.
9.2.1 Defining Urban Area Boundaries and Phasing of Development
The City's in-effect O.P. defines the “urban system” as comprising the South Pickering
Urban Area, Seaton Urban Area, and the Airport Site. The Airport Site is not identified
within the D.R.O.P. Urban Area and is not identified for urban uses. As of January 25,
2025, the Minister of Transport and Internal Trade, announced that the Pickering Lands
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 137
will not be used for a future airport site. The current policies and mapping also do not
include the Northeast Pickering Urban Expansion lands.
The distinction between "Urban System" and "Urban Area" is unclear. Urban System,
while used in the D.R.O.P. to refer to the collection of Urban Areas in the Region, is not
typically used at the local level, and policies may be clearer if only Urban Area is used.
It is also noted that Pickering has three distinct and separated urban areas (South
Pickering, Seaton, and Northeast Pickering), each of which requires a unique approach
to growth and the respective policy framework.
There are currently no policies around the sequential and orderly phasing of
development in the urban area as in the D.R.O.P. and P.P.S., 2024. Although
consideration needs to be given to the unique nature of the City’s Urban Areas, and
although the three Urban Areas are not contiguous, phasing strategies for the City as
whole, and for each of the Urban Areas separately, are required.
Recommendation: Remove the term "Urban System" and replace with “Urban Areas,”
broken down as the South Pickering Urban Area, Seaton Urban Area, and Northeast
Pickering Urban Area. This follows convention but also allows for separate policy
frameworks for each Urban Area.
Recommendation: Add the Northeast Pickering Lands to the Urban Area(s) to
implement the direction of the D.R.O.P.
Recommendation: Remove the Proposed Airport Site from the Urban System/Urban
Area and enact a special policy area for the former Proposed Site that requires future
study, including any required guidance for transition of the lands if they are sold by the
Federal government.
Recommendation: Add policies that promote the sequential and orderly phasing of
development in each of the City's Urban Areas. These policies should reflect that each
of the City’s Urban Areas are geographically distinct from another, and treat each Urban
Area distinct from another, yet part of a broader interconnected City.
Recommendation: Require that development in the Northeast Pickering Urban Area be
preceded by the completion of a Secondary Plan, which should itself include phasing
policies for Northeast Pickering.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 138
Recommendation: Concurrent with phasing policies recommended above, it is
recommended to establish a phasing strategy for the Northeast Pickering Urban Area,
recognizing that the lands in that Urban Area are likely to support growth beyond 2051
This phasing strategy should precede continuation of the secondary plan process for
Northeast Pickering, and should be supported by a master environmental servicing
plan, subwatershed analysis, fiscal study, and other studies to inform orderly and
efficient growth. This process can be guided by policies in the D.R.O.P.
9.2.2 Urban Area Boundary Expansions
The P.P.S., 2024 removes the requirement for settlement/urban area boundary
expansions to occur through a M.C.R., meaning they can potentially occur through a
privately-initiated O.P. Amendment. This will require clear tests to be placed in the O.P.
for proposed expansions to meet.
The City's in-effect O.P. includes no policies around expansion of the Urban Area(s).
Beyond the Northeast Pickering lands, there are very few lands remaining outside the
City's urban areas that are not within the Greenbelt. Nevertheless, the City's O.P.
should include policies establishing the tests that must be met for boundary expansions
to be permitted.
As noted above, January 2025, the federal government announced that the Pickering
airport would officially not be going forward. While the government has indicated intent
to transfer the majority of these lands to the Rouge Urban National Park, the future
function of the lands is still to be determined.
Option: Consider adding policy to guide the assessment of potential urban boundary
expansions (either - or privately-initiated). These policies should draw on policies in the
D.R.O.P. and section 2.3.2 of the P.P.S., 2024 to set tests and criteria for any proposed
expansion.
Option: Consider adding policy that the urban boundary as established in the City's
O.P. is not to change and that the City will not consider requests for boundary
expansions. This approach would reflect that the growth management work has been
undertaken, and the land needs of the City are met by the existing urban area lands.
Recommendation: Either through policies in the O.P., or internally, the City should
develop a near-term and long-term strategy for the treatment of the airport lands. This
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 139
policy could be simple and pledge to work with the federal government to plan for the
future of the lands, or go further (e.g., setting the intent of the city that the lands remain
for their existing uses, especially prime agricultural lands).
9.2.3 Greenfield Area Development Densities
The City's in-effect O.P. does not include any policies specifically guiding future
greenfield development other than the policies for Seaton. Given the Northeast
Pickering Secondary Plan has commenced, and potential boundary expansions could
be sought through private O.P. Amendments, consideration should be given to policies
for new greenfield growth.
The D.R.O.P provides guidance on greenfield development, and Section 2.3.1 of the
P.P.S., 2024 encourages that municipalities set minimum density targets for greenfield
areas. It should be noted that the P.P.S., 2024 uses the term “Designated Growth Area”
to refer to greenfield areas. The P.P.S., 2024 encourages that municipalities set a
minimum density target for Designated Growth Areas of 50 people and jobs per hectare,
while the best practices review found that the typical target is 70 people and jobs per
hectare. It should be noted that the latter was the minimum greenfield density target for
the “inner ring” municipalities in the former Growth Plan for the Greater Golden
Horseshoe – it is possible that some municipalities are continuing to use this minimum
until further study is completed.
Option: Identify lands considered as greenfield on a schedule of the O.P. This will
allow a policy framework to be linked to the delineation of greenfield areas and direction
for greenfield development. These areas could be defined as either:
• Designated Growth Area (the 2024 P.P.S. term); or
• Greenfield Areas (or a similar term such as Planned Neighbourhoods).
Option: The O.P. can establish a city-wide minimum density target for greenfield
areas. Should this option be implemented, it is recommended that the density target
follow the guidance of the P.P.S., 2024 and be at minimum, 50 people and jobs per
hectare, but should be driven by expected growth, primarily in the Northeast Pickering
Urban Area. Establishing a minimum density target can help ensure growth in greenfield
areas achieve the assumed growth in the forecasting scenario.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 140
9.2.4 Allocation of Growth Within Urban Areas
The majority of residential and employment growth is directed to the City’s Urban Areas,
but within the Urban Areas, growth is not distributed equally. Certain parts of the Urban
Areas should be prioritized for more growth over others, particularly where walkability
and transit access are more feasible.
The City’s in-effect O.P. provides guidance around growth levels in specific areas (e.g.
City Centre) but does not have a set of city-wide policies that explicitly spell out the
City's intentions for where the highest and lowest levels of growth are to occur. Adding
this guidance could help direct intensification to appropriate areas with existing/planned
transit, infrastructure, and servicing while preserving neighbourhoods. It also gives
clear direction on where growth is expected, therefore, supporting long-term investment.
Given the high interest in development throughout the City, however, particularly along
the Kingston Road corridor, it may be difficult to limit heights/densities on large sites
outside of the City Centre.
Schedule I of the in-effect O.P. groups land use designations into a structure of Urban
Residential Areas, Mixed Use Area, Employment Areas, Rural Settlements, and the
Open Space System. Schedule I differentiates land use designations with hatching,
which can present some readability concerns, especially as more S.G.A.s may be
added. Where other municipalities establish an urban structure to guide growth,
typically this structure and land use designations are illustrated on two separate
schedules.
Recommendation: Create separate schedules to illustrate an urban structure and land
use designations so that policies can more clearly and directly reference the schedules
and the features shown on each schedule.
Option: Consider creating policies that link the Urban Structure to desired growth and
heights/densities (e.g., illustrating a spectrum with highest rate of growth and
tallest/densest development in the City Centre, lowest level of growth in
neighbourhoods). The City can consider using a criteria-based approach to this
spectrum: rather than establishing minimum and maximum heights for each area, the
O.P. can establish how development in a given area generally supports the growth
needs of the City. This framework, however, is not solely driven by growth and would
need to take into account the City's urban design and city building aspirations which
would be assessed through other components of the O.P.R.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 141
9.2.5 Residential Growth
Planning for residential growth means ensuring that the City has enough land
designated for residential uses (i.e., housing) in a reasonable timeframe, to meet the
incoming demand for that housing.
The City's in-effect O.P. includes an overarching policy to maintain a minimum 10-year
supply of residentially designated lands to meet anticipated long-term housing
demands, while the P.P.S., 2024 requires that municipalities maintain a 15-year supply.
Recommendation: Update the existing O.P. policy to require that the City maintain a
15-year supply of lands designated and available for residential development, per the
direction of the P.P.S., 2024.
9.3 Intensification and Strategic Growth Areas
Intensification in the context of this report means residential growth within the B.U.A.,
i.e., where development of different uses and densities has already occurred.
Intensification can occur through a number of ways: demolition and redevelopment of
existing buildings, development on vacant lots, or infill development on underutilized lots
(e.g., in the large surface parking areas of shopping plazas).
9.3.1 Intensification
The analysis in preceding sections of this report has shown that the City’s B.U.A. can
support significant residential growth in the form of high-density housing, and that the
land needs in urban expansion areas will be affected by the rate of growth that occurs
through intensification.
Recommendation: Set an intensification target that 40% of residential growth to 2051
will occur in the B.U.A., continuing to use the 2006 built boundary to establish the built-
up area. While the 2006 built boundary is no longer in force with the repeal of the
Growth Plan, it is still a useful tool to forecast and monitor intensification, as most
opportunities for intensification (e.g., low density shopping plazas) are within that
boundary.
Recommendation: Centralize city-wide intensification goals and policies in a chapter
devoted to growth management, along with other growth-related policies.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 142
Option: Consider introducing monitoring policies to track growth through intensification
at a city-wide level, as well as across different areas within the City structure. This
monitoring can inform the City on its progress toward its overall intensification target,
but also how well the city structure and hierarchy of development is being implemented.
For example, closely monitoring development across the City's S.G.A.s can provide
information on whether the City Centre is achieving higher densities and unit counts
than in the Kingston Corridor.
9.3.2 Establishing a Hierarchy of Strategic Growth Areas
The City's in-effect O.P. does not identify S.G.A.s or intensification areas except for
Mixed Use Areas; however, the delineated Mixed Use Areas do not fully align with the
D.R.O.P.’s identified S.G.A.s listed below. Furthermore, while the D.R.O.P establishes
a hierarchy of S.G.A.s, with some S.G.A.s being intended for higher rates of growth
than others, Pickering’s in-effect O.P. does not explicitly delineate a hierarchy of its
Mixed Use Areas. The in-effect O.P. provides detailed growth targets for its Mixed Use
Areas (via the Neighbourhood policies) but these policies are not easily discernible
throughout each Neighbourhood section.
The D.R.O.P. delineates a series of Protected Major Transit Station Areas (P.M.T.S.A.s)
around GO Transit stations in Durham Region, including one P.M.T.S.A. in Pickering.
The Pickering GO P.M.T.S.A. is completely within the boundaries of the Pickering City
Centre. Guidance for P.M.T.S.A.s can also be found in Section 2.4.2 of the P.P.S.,
2024.
Option: Establish a hierarchy of S.G.A.s as part of the City’s new urban structure to
prioritize locations for the highest and most concentrated growth. This approach
supports the development of more cohesive communities within S.G.A.s by clustering
higher growth around areas with the greatest access to amenities, services, and transit,
enhancing walkability and connectivity. Those S.G.A.s identified by the D.R.O.P. in
Pickering include:
• Urban Growth Centre (City Centre)
• Pickering GO P.M.T.S.A. (aligns with City Centre)
• Rapid Transit Corridors (aligns with the Kingston Road Corridor and the Brock
Mixed Use Node)
• Regional Centre (conceptually identified in the Northeast Pickering lands but not
delineated with a boundary)
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 143
Recommendation: Delineate the boundaries of the P.M.T.S.A. as a combined S.G.A.
with the City Centre and establish policies to align with the D.R.O.P. to guide land use,
compact built form, and direct the highest densities closest to the Pickering GO station.
Recommendation: The City’s O.P. should include minimum density targets for each
S.G.A. to ensure growth is aligned with transit access, infrastructure capacity, and
community needs. Establishing density targets will help create more cohesive and
walkable communities, support a mix of uses, and reinforce the S.G.A. hierarchy by
directing high-density development to key areas. These density targets are established
in the D.R.O.P as follows:
• Urban Growth Centre (City Centre) – 200 people and jobs per hectare
• P.M.T.S.A. – 150 people and jobs per hectare
• Rapid Transit Corridor - 150 people and jobs per hectare
• Regional Centre - 150 people and jobs per hectare
Given that the City Centre and P.M.T.S.A. overlap, it is recommended to use the higher
density target of 200 people and jobs per hectare for the City Centre and use the
density target of 150 people and jobs per hectare for the Kingston Road Corridor and
Brock Mixed Use Node.
9.3.3 Height and Density in Strategic Growth Areas
Building heights and density of developments are linked to achievement of growth
forecasts, capacity of infrastructure like water or sanitary servicing and roads, as well as
shaping of the public realm and connection with existing neighbourhoods.
There are built form policies in the City’s in-effect O.P. for Mixed Corridors and
Community Nodes, and specific Neighbourhoods (Chapter 12) that identify maximum
building heights and some minimum building heights. The in-effect O.P. also identifies
a maximum F.S.I. for Mixed Use Areas (Table 6) and some Urban Neighbourhoods
(Section 12), but there is no minimum F.S.I. identified.
Best practices show that it is a common approach to identify minimum building heights
and maximum building heights. Municipalities incorporate building height policies to
help ensure that densities are being achieved and also that the urban design vision will
be realized. Based on the review of policies for comparable S.G.A.s to Pickering,
generally the maximum permitted building heights are between 20 and 30 storeys. It is
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 144
also acknowledged, however, that there are many instances of municipalities receiving
applications for very tall buildings, resulting in Official Plan Amendments (O.P.A.s). It is
also a common approach to identify both maximum and minimum F.S.I., however, there
is significant variance in these minimums and maximums between municipalities, and
similarly to height, may increase need for O.P.A.s. An alternative approach is to focus
on the overall impact of a proposed development’s massing, setbacks, etc., and not set
maximum or minimum F.S.I. to help reduce triggers for O.P.A.s.
The Intensification Analysis undertaken through this G.M.S. identified that Pickering
would be able to support future residential growth without permitting very tall buildings
(i.e., over 30 storeys) and high site densities. Maximum heights in the S.G.A.s thus can
be driven by urban design objectives and market forces, rather than setting tall
maximum permitted heights and to allow transformation of the S.G.A.s over time.
Establishing minimum heights in the Official Plan (e.g., 3 storeys in the S.G.A.s) may
preclude certain low-density uses but can help ensure that a baseline level of residential
intensification is facilitated.
Recommendation: Set minimum building heights within the P.M.T.S.A./City Centre
and Kingston Road Corridor/Brock Node that would support the achievement of the
density targets (in people and jobs per hectare) set for those S.G.A.s.
Option: Consider setting maximum building heights within the S.G.A.s noted above
that align with best practices and existing City policy. OPA 38 sets a maximum of 35
storeys in the Brock Node and south of Kingston Road, which could be applied to the
City Centre, and 8 to 12 storeys north of Kingston Road). This option is simple;
however, it may be overly prescriptive and unduly require O.P. amendments for sites
that could reasonably support taller buildings and more density. If this option is
considered, it should be informed by other studies to provide strategy around where the
City would like to direct tall buildings based on design, infrastructure constraints (see
the option below). The heights should not simply be selected based on best practice,
but best practices provide a good reflection of recent market conditions.
Option: Consider undertaking work through the O.P.R. to determine the appropriate
heights to meet the maximum density assumptions for the City's S.G.A.s as outlined in
the Intensification Analysis for the GMS (i.e., 900 units per hectare in the P.M.T.S.A./
City Centre, 600 units per hectare in the Brock Node and south of Kingston Road, and
160 units per hectare north of Kingston Road). This study could also set thresholds or
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 145
ranges of height and density that are appropriate to support the City's growth forecasts
but include criteria for situations where development could exceed the threshold without
amendment. This approach would generally align with the in-effect O.P. policies for
building heights in the City Centre. In addition to urban design, servicing and other
matters may play a role in establishing appropriate minimum and maximum building
heights within the S.G.A.s.
9.4 Employment Areas
The City’s Employment Areas are groupings of land that have been identified for non-
residential uses, generally those uses that provide jobs. Historically in Pickering, this
has included industrial uses related to manufacturing and warehousing, as well as office
uses and other non-residential uses that benefit from being located in areas with larger
available building spaces or separation from residential uses.
As previously discussed, the Employment Area policies of the City’s in-effect O.P. are
not consistent with the P.P.S., 2024, which does not allow for stand-alone
office/commercial/institutional uses. The implementation of these policies is complex
and given the recency of the changes to provincial policy, no single implementation
approach has been tested through the Ontario Land Tribunal (O.L.T.) or the courts.
Chapter 8 of this report discusses P.P.S., 2024 implementation in Employment Area
lands in the Seaton Urban Area. Implementing the P.P.S., 2024 in the City's
established and fully developed Employment Areas in South Pickering will also require
analysis, given the intermingling of industrial uses with other existing uses that are no
longer permitted within the province’s new definition of Employment Area. Applying a
broad redesignation to prohibit office and other non-industrial uses in these areas would
have the effect of rendering many properties and existing uses as non-conforming. If
those lands with non-conforming uses were removed from the Employment Area and
redesignated with a non-employment designation, it may threaten the contiguity of the
existing Employment Areas and introduce issues of land use compatibility.
The P.P.S., 2024 includes a new policy (2.8.1.3) which requires that, within 300 metres
of Employment Areas, development must avoid or minimize/mitigate impacts on the
long-term economic viability employment uses in those areas. This policy echoes and
references land use compatibility policies in Section 3.5 of the P.P.S., 2024, which
require any new major industrial facility or sensitive use to avoid or minimize/mitigate
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 146
land use compatibility issues with the other (but does not set a distance threshold). To
a certain extent, policy 2.8.1.3 enshrines the Provincial D-series environmental
guidelines in land use policy. Implementation of this policy in the City's O.P. would
mean that any removal/conversions of lands in employment areas would have to
consider the impacts of any future sensitive uses on those lands on adjacent lands
remaining in an employment area.
Recommendation: Through the O.P.R, the City should undertake a comprehensive
review of all lands within the City’s existing Employment Areas to determine the impact
of removal of any Employment Area lands on the City's capacity to support future
employment growth. This review should include consideration of the following issues:
• The manner in which uses that do not meet the new P.P.S., 2024/Planning Act
definition of Employment Area, including major office uses, will be
accommodated elsewhere in the City if the existing Employment Areas are
preserved for manufacturing, warehousing, and ancillary uses.
• The need to accommodate walkable employment-supportive uses that serve
people working in Employment Areas but which are not permitted under the new
provincial definition.
Recommendation: Include policy in the City's O.P. to require that any proposed
development proposed within 300 metres of an employment area demonstrate that the
viability of the uses in that employment area will not be impacted by issues of
compatibility (e.g., noise) or that any impacts will be mitigated (e.g., building and site
design to mitigate noise issues).
Option: Guided by the review of the City’s Employment Area lands recommended
above, consider revising the Employment Areas in the City to only permit
manufacturing/warehousing uses and accessory uses, as well as permitting all existing
uses, per transition provisions of the Planning Act. This could create a need to widely
permit new commercial uses, including auto-oriented uses, in mixed use areas.
Option: Also guided by the review of the City’s Employment Area lands, consider
maintaining certain Employment Areas that only permit manufacturing/warehousing
uses, but consider removing lands from the fringes of Employment Areas that host a
broader range of commercial uses (e.g. offices, auto dealerships, gymnastics gyms, and
similar uses which often locate in industrial malls). Any lands removed from an
Employment Area that are still within 300 m of the remaining Employment Area must
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE 147
consider the potential land use compatibility impacts of any sensitive land uses
developed there.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE A-1
Appendix A
Growth Projections
Methodology
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE A-2
Appendix A: Growth Projections Methodology
A cohort survival forecast methodology had been utilized to generate the population and
housing forecast through Envision Durham, which establishes the foundation for growth
in the City of Pickering to 2051. This methodology is described below:
Approach and Methodology
The population, household, and employment forecast methodology adopted for this
study utilizes a combined forecasting approach that incorporates both the traditional
“top-down” cohort-survival forecast methodology (i.e., population by age-cohort) and a
“bottom-up” household formation methodology. This combined approach is adopted to
ensure that both regional economic/demographic trends and local housing market
conditions are adequately assessed in developing the long-term growth potential for the
City of Pickering.
A.1 Economic Base Model
Local/regional economic activities can be divided into two categories: those that are
“export-based,” and those that are “community-based.” The export-based sector
comprises industries (i.e., economic clusters) that produce goods that reach markets
outside the community (e.g., agriculture and primary resources, manufacturing,
research, and development). Export-based industries also provide services to
temporary and second-home residents of the City of Pickering (hotels, restaurants,
tourism-related sectors, colleges, and universities) or to businesses outside the region
(specialized financial and professional, scientific, and technical services). Community-
based industries produce services that primarily meet the needs of the residents in the
city (retail, medical, primary and secondary education, and personal and government
services). Ultimately, future permanent population and housing growth within the City of
Pickering has been determined in large measure by the competitiveness of the export-
based economy within the city and the surrounding market area.
On the other hand, population growth in the 65+ cohort will continue to be largely driven
by the aging of the city’s existing population and, to a lesser extent, the attractiveness of
the city to older adults and seniors through net migration.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE A-3
A.2 Cohort-Survival Population and Household Forecast Methodology
The cohort-survival population forecast methodology uses, as its base, population age
groups by sex, and ages each group over time, taking into consideration age-specific
death rates and age-specific fertility rates for the female population in the appropriate
years (to generate new births). To this total, an estimated rate of net migration is added
(in-migration to the municipality, less out-migration, by age group). Forecast trends in
population age structure provide important insights with respect to future housing needs
based on forecast trends in average household occupancy. Total housing growth is
generated from the population forecast by major age group using a headship rate
forecast.
A headship rate is defined as the number of primary household maintainers or heads of
households by major population age group (i.e., cohort). Average headship rates do not
tend to vary significantly over time by major age group; however, the number of
maintainers per household varies by population age group. For example, the ratio of
household maintainers per total housing occupants is higher on average for households
occupied by older cohorts (i.e., 55+ years of age) as opposed to households occupied
by adults 29 to 54 years of age. This is important because, as the City of Pickering’s
population ages, the ratio of household maintainers is anticipated to increase. The
average headship rate represents the inverse of the average number of persons per
unit (P.P.U.). As such, as the city’s population ages over time, the average P.P.U. is
forecast to steadily decline as the ratio of household maintainers per total housing
occupants increases. Figure A-1 summarizes the cohort-survival forecast methodology,
which is a provincially accepted approach to projecting population and the
corresponding total household formation.[101]
[101] Projection Methodology Guideline. A Guide to Projecting Population, Housing
Need, Employment and Related Land Requirements, 1995.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE A-4
Figure A-1
Cohort-Survival Population and Household Forecast Methodology
This forecasting approach has been developed in accordance with the Ontario
Provincial Projection Methodology Guidelines and industry best practices.[102] This
approach focuses on the rate of historical housing construction in the City of Pickering
and the surrounding area, adjusted to incorporate supply and demand factors by
geographic area, such as servicing constraints, housing units in the development
process, and historical housing demand. Population is then forecast by developing
assumptions on average household size by unit type, taking into consideration the
higher average occupancy of new housing units and the decline in P.P.U. over time
within existing households.
A.3 Employment Forecast
The long-term employment growth potential for the City of Pickering has been
developed from the labour force growth forecast, which considers both the rate and age
structure of forecast labour force growth over the 2021 to 2051 planning horizon. A
long-term employment growth forecast by major employment sector/category (i.e.,
primary, industrial, commercial, institutional, work at home) was then established using
the employment “activity rate” method.[103]
When forecasting long-term employment, it is important to understand how employment
growth in the City of Pickering by major employment category (i.e., industrial,
commercial, and institutional) is impacted by forecast labour force and population
growth. Population-related employment (i.e., retail, schools, services, and commercial)
[102] Projection Methodology Guideline. A Guide to Projecting Population, Housing
Need, Employment and Related Land Requirements, 1995.
[103] An employment activity rate is defined as the number of jobs in a municipality
divided by the number of residents.
Forecast
Trends in
Housing
Occupancy
Total
Households
by Age of
Household
Maintainer
Headship Rate
Forecast by
Age Cohort,
2021 to 2051
Population
Forecast by
Age Cohort,
2021 to 2051
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE A-5
is generally automatically attracted to locations convenient to residents. Typically, as
the population grows, the demand for population-related employment also increases, to
service the needs of the local community. Forecast commercial and institutional activity
rates have been based on historical activity rates and employment trends, and future
commercial and institutional employment prospects within a local and regional context.
Similar to population-related employment, home-based employment is also anticipated
to generally increase in proportion to population growth.[104]
Industrial and office commercial employment (export-based employment), on the other
hand, is not closely linked to population growth. This type of employment tends to be
more influenced by broader market conditions (i.e., economic competitiveness,
transportation access, access to labour, and distance to employment markets) and local
site characteristics such as servicing capacity, highway access and exposure, site
size/configuration, physical conditions, and site location within existing and future
Employment Areas throughout Pickering and the surrounding market area. As such,
industrial employment (employment lands employment) is not anticipated to increase in
direct proportion to population growth and has been based on a review of the following:
• Macro-economic trends influencing industrial and employment lands
development (i.e., industrial and office employment) within Pickering and the
surrounding market area;
• Historical employment trends (i.e., review of established and emerging
employment clusters), non-residential construction activity, and recent
employment land absorption rates; and
• The availability of serviced industrial and employment land supply (i.e., shovel-
ready industrial and employment lands) and future planned greenfield
development opportunities on vacant designated industrial and employment
lands within Pickering and the surrounding market area.
[104] Due to further advancements in telecommunications technology, it is anticipated
that home-based employment activity rates may increase over the forecast period for
the City.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE B-1
Appendix B
Household Profiling and
Trends
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE B-2
Appendix B: Household Profiling and Trends
Figure B-1
City of Pickering
Household Trends by Family Structure, 2001 to 2021
Source: Derived from 2001 to 2021 Statistics Canada Census data by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
Figure B-2
Durham Region
Household Trends by Family Structure, 2001 to 2021
Source: Derived from 2001 to 2021 Statistics Canada Census data by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
87%84%83%81%81%
55%
13%16%17%19%19%
45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001-2021
Growth
Ci
t
y
o
f
P
i
c
k
e
r
i
n
g
Sh
a
r
e
o
f
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Year
Census-Family Households Non-Census-Family Households
81%80%79%78%78%69%
19%20%21%22%22%31%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001-2021
Growth
Du
r
h
a
m
R
e
g
i
o
n
Sh
a
r
e
o
f
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Year
Census-Family Households Non-Census-Family Households
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE B-3
Figure B-3
Province of Ontario
Household Trends by Family Structure, 2001 to 2021
Source: Derived from 2001 to 2021 Statistics Canada Census data by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
Figure B-4
City of Pickering
One-Person Household Share of Total Permanent Households, 2011 to 2021
Source: Derived from 2011 to 2021 Statistics Canada Census data by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
76%75%74%73%72%61%
24%25%26%27%28%39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2001-2021
Pr
o
v
i
n
c
e
o
f
O
n
t
a
r
i
o
Sh
a
r
e
o
f
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Year
Census Family Households Census Non-Family
15%
19%
25%
17%
19%
26%
17%19%
26%
40%
31%
39%
24%
18%
35%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
City of Pickering Durham Region Province of Ontario
On
e
-Pe
r
s
o
n
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Sh
a
r
e
o
f
T
o
t
a
l
P
e
r
m
a
n
e
n
t
Ho
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Geographic Area
2011 2016 2021 2011-2016 2016-2021
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE B-4
Figure B-5
City of Pickering
Multigenerational Household Share of Total Permanent Households, 2011 to 2021
Source: Derived from 2011 to 2021 Statistics Canada Census data by Watson & Associates
Economists Ltd.
Figure B-6
City of Pickering
Baby-Boomer Housing Preference Change, 1996 to 2021
6.3%
4.6%
5.2%
3.6%
6.8%
5.3%5.4%
3.9%
7.6%
6.0%
5.4%
4.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
City of Pickering Durham Region GTHA Ontario
Sh
a
r
e
o
f
M
u
l
t
i
g
e
n
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
a
l
Ho
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
Area
2011 2016 2021
1,500
-1,000
-400
-1,200 -1,200
-200
600
0 0
-300
0 200 0
300 100
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016 2016-2021Ch
a
n
g
e
i
n
B
a
b
y
B
o
o
m
e
r
Pr
i
m
a
r
y
H
o
u
s
e
h
o
l
d
s
M
a
i
n
t
a
i
n
e
r
s
Period
Low-Density Medium-Density High-Density
Note: Figures have been rounded.
Low density includes singles and semis.
Medium density includes rows and apartments in duplexes.
High density includes bachelor, 1 and 2+ bedroom rental and condo apartments.
Source: Derived from Statistics Canada Census data, 1996 to 2021, by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE C-1
Appendix C
Housing Units with
Development Applications
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE C-2
Appendix C: Housing Units with Development
Applications
Figure C-1
City of Pickering
Housing Units in Active Development Applications
Notes:
Low Density includes singles and semi-detached houses
Medium Density includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes
High Density includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom+ apartment units.
Source: Derived from City of Pickering as of 2024 by Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
9,643 11,283
18,161
248
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Urban Growth
Centre
Remaining Built
Boundary
Seaton Rural Area
To
t
a
l
U
n
i
t
s
Area
Low Density Medium Density High Density
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE D-1
Appendix D
Population and Housing
Forecast
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE D-2
Appendix D: Population and Housing Forecast
Figure D-1
City of Pickering
Residential Growth Forecast, Scenario 1: 40% Intensification
[1] Population includes net Census undercount and has been rounded
[2] Multiple dwellings include townhouses and apartments in duplexes
[3] Apartments includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom+ apartment units.
Note: Figures may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd
Figure D-2
City of Pickering
Housing Forecast Allocations by Planning Policy Area, 2021 to 2051
Scenario 1: 40% Intensification
Built-Up Area
Period
Singles
& Semi-
Detached
Multiple
Dwellings[1] Apartments[2] Total
2021-2026 410 520 3,270 4,190
2021-2031 470 980 4,750 6,200
2021-2036 530 1,560 6,570 8,650
2021-2041 580 2,310 8,870 11,760
2021-2046 640 3,520 12,540 16,700
2021-2051 660 4,790 16,300 21,750
Singles &
Semi-
Detached
Multiple
Dwellings[2]Apartments[3]Other Total
Households
91,400 87,800 20,260 4,850 3,090 30 28,230 3.24
92,400 88,700 20,740 5,380 3,190 20 29,330 3.15
95,500 91,800 21,130 6,060 3,700 30 30,920 3.09
103,600 99,200 22,430 6,810 4,170 30 33,440 3.10
125,100 119,800 24,760 8,640 7,520 30 40,940 3.06
150,100 143,700 27,210 12,230 10,380 30 49,860 3.01
176,400 168,900 28,650 15,510 15,030 30 59,220 2.98
200,400 191,900 30,790 17,940 19,240 30 68,000 2.95
228,100 218,400 35,590 19,640 22,940 30 78,200 2.92
256,400 245,500 40,390 21,410 26,750 30 88,580 2.89
1,000 900 480 530 100 -10 1,100
3,100 3,100 390 680 510 10 1,590
8,100 7,400 1,300 750 470 0 2,520
21,500 20,600 2,330 1,830 3,350 0 7,500
46,500 44,500 4,780 5,420 6,210 0 16,420
72,800 69,700 6,220 8,700 10,860 0 25,780
96,800 92,700 8,360 11,130 15,070 0 34,560
124,500 119,200 13,160 12,830 18,770 0 44,760
152,800 146,300 17,960 14,600 22,580 0 55,140
Year
Population
(Including
Census
Undercount)[¹]
Housing Units Person Per
Unit (P.P.U.):
Total
Population/
Total
Households
Hi
s
t
o
r
i
c
a
l
Mid 2006
Population
(Excluding
Census
Undercount)
Mid 2051
Mid 2006 - Mid 2011
Fo
r
e
c
a
s
t
Mid 2011
Mid 2016
Mid 2021
Mid 2026
Mid 2031
Mid 2036
Mid 2041
Mid 2046
Mid 2021 - Mid 2036
Mid 2021 - Mid 2041
Mid 2021 - Mid 2046
Mid 2021 - Mid 2051
In
c
r
e
m
e
n
t
a
l
Mid 2011 - Mid 2016
Mid 2016 - Mid 2021
Mid 2021 - Mid 2026
Mid 2021 - Mid 2031
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE D-3
D.G.A. & Northeast Pickering Expansion Area
Period
Singles
& Semi-
Detached
Multiple
Dwellings[1] Apartments[2] Total
2021-2026 1,900 1,310 80 3,280
2021-2031 4,280 4,440 1,450 10,180
2021-2036 5,640 7,140 4,280 17,060
2021-2041 7,720 8,820 6,170 22,710
2021-2046 12,450 9,310 6,200 27,960
2021-2051 17,220 9,810 6,230 33,260
Rural Area
Period
Singles
& Semi-
Detached
Multiple
Dwellings[1] Apartments[2] Total
2021-2026 20 0 10 30
2021-2031 40 0 10 50
2021-2036 50 0 20 70
2021-2041 60 0 20 90
2021-2046 80 0 30 100
2021-2051 90 0 30 120
[1] Multiple dwellings includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes
[2] Apartments includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom+ apartment units.
Note: Figures may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE D-4
Figure D-3
City of Pickering
Residential Growth Forecast, Scenario 2: 45% Intensification
[1] Population includes net Census undercount and has been rounded
[2] Multiple dwellings includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes
[3] Apartments includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom+ apartment units.
Note: Figures may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Figure D-4
City of Pickering
Incremental Housing Forecast by Planning Policy Area, 2021 to 2051
Scenario 2: 45% Intensification
[1] Multiple dwellings includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes
[2] Apartments includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom+ apartment units.
Note: Figures may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Singles &
Semi-
Detached
Multiple
Dwellings[2]Apartments[3]Other Total Households
Mid 2021 103,600 99,200 22,430 6,810 4,170 30 33,440 3.10
Mid 2051 256,400 245,500 33,890 24,170 30,500 30 88,580 2.89
Mid 2021 to Mid 2051 152,800 146,300 11,460 17,360 26,330 0 55,140
Period
Person Per Unit
(P.P.U.): Total
Population/ Total
Households
Population
(Including
Census
Undercount)[1]
Population
(Excluding
Census
Undercount)
Housing Units
Singles &
Semi-
Detached
Multiple
Dwellings[1]Apartments[2]Total
Households
660 5,480 18,650 24,780
10,720 11,880 7,650 30,240
90 0 30 120
11,460 17,360 26,330 55,140
Planning Policy area
Built-Up Area
DGA & NE Pickering Expansion Area
Rural Area
City of Pickering Total
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE D-5
Figure D-5
City of Pickering
Residential Growth Forecast, Scenario 3: 50% Intensification
[1] Population includes net Census undercount and has been rounded
[2] Multiple dwellings includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes
[3] Apartments includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom+ apartment units.
Note: Figures may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Figure D-6
City of Pickering
Incremental Housing Forecast by Planning Policy Area, 2021 to 2051
Scenario 3: 50% Intensification
[1] Multiple dwellings includes townhouses and apartments in duplexes
[2] Apartments includes bachelor, 1-bedroom, 2-bedroom+ apartment units.
Note: Figures may not sum precisely due to rounding.
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Singles &
Semi-
Detached
Multiple
Dwellings[2]Apartments[3]Other Total Households
Mid 2021 103,600 99,200 22,430 6,810 4,170 30 33,440 3.10
Mid 2051 256,400 245,500 32,560 23,820 32,180 30 88,580 2.89
Mid 2021 to Mid 2051 152,800 146,300 10,130 17,010 28,010 0 55,140
Period
Population
(Including
Census
Undercount)[1]
Population
(Excluding
Census
Undercount)
Housing Units Person Per Unit
(P.P.U.): Total
Population/ Total
Households
Singles &
Semi-
Detached
Multiple
Dwellings[1]Apartments[2]Total
Households
660 6,100 20,780 27,540
9,390 10,900 7,190 27,490
90 0 30 120
10,130 17,010 28,010 55,140
Rural Area
City of Pickering Total
Planning Policy area
Built-Up Area
DGA & NE Pickering Expansion Area
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE E-1
Appendix E
City-wide Employment Growth
by Land Use Category
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE E-2
Appendix E: City-Wide Employment Forecast
Figure E-1
City of Pickering
Employment Forecast, 2024 to 2051
[1] Population includes net Census undercount and has been rounded
Notes:
Source: Watson & Associates Economists Ltd.
Period
Population
Including Census
Undercount [1]
Major Office
Employment
Employment
Land
Employment
Rural
Employment
Population-
Related
Employment
Total
Employment Activity Rate
2016 95,500 5,370 15,980 660 15,440 37,450 39%
2021 103,600 5,740 16,620 720 16,240 39,320 38%
2024 117,600 5,680 16,850 660 20,340 43,530 37%
2051 256,400 11,440 36,300 840 45,220 93,800 37%
2024-2051 138,800 5,760 19,450 180 24,880 50,270
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-1
Appendix F
Conformity Matrix
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-2
Appendix F: Conformity Matrix
The table below summarizes policy direction from the Planning Act, Provincial Planning Statement, 2024, and Envision
Durham Regional Official Plan, in relation to in-effect City of Pickering Official Plan policies. Policies are grouped by
theme.
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
Presentation of population/employment forecasts (i.e., in table vs. policy), and breakdown of forecasts by smaller area within the
municipality.
Population and Employment
Forecasts are presented
through a series of tables
specific to different areas of the
City.
South Pickering Urban Area
Population Target
2.10 City Council:
(a) adopts a population target
for the South Pickering Urban
Area of 100,500 people for the
year 2016; and
(b) shall endeavour to
accommodate this population
over the time frame of the Plan
generally as set out in Table 1;
(c) despite Sections 2.10(a)
and (b), adopts a population
target for the City Centre of
13,500 people for the year
2031.
Table 1 includes the 15 South
Population, Households, and
Employment forecasts
presented in a Table.
1.1.7 Figure 2 - Table for
growth forecasts per
municipality Urban and Rural,
Population, Households and
Employment for 2021, 2026,
2031, 2036, 2041, 2046, 2051
1.1.4 Plan for a balance of
residential growth with
increased employment growth
to achieve the population and
employment forecasts
outlined in this Plan, while
aspiring to achieve a more
balanced job to population
ratio of 50% (one job for every
two residents).
1.1.5 Ensure that necessary
Provincial Planning Statement (2024):
2.1.1 As informed by provincial guidance, planning authorities shall base population
and employment growth forecasts on Ontario Population Projections published by
the Ministry of Finance and may modify, as appropriate.
2.1.2. Notwithstanding policy 2.1.1, municipalities may continue to forecast growth
using population and employment forecasts previously issued by the Province for
the purposes of land use planning.
2.1.3. At the time of creating a new official plan and each official plan update,
sufficient land shall be made available to accommodate an appropriate range and
mix of land uses to meet projected needs for a time horizon of at least 20 years, but
not more than 30 years, informed by provincial guidance. Planning for
infrastructure, public service facilities, strategic growth areas and employment
areas may extend beyond this time horizon.
Where the Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing has made a zoning order, the
resulting development potential shall be in addition to projected needs over the
planning horizon established in the official plan. At the time of the municipality’s
next official plan update, this additional growth shall be incorporated into the official
plan and related infrastructure plans.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-3
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
Pickering Urban Area
Neighbourhoods with
population targets by year
(1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016)
South Pickering Urban Area
Employment Target
2.11 City Council:
(a) adopts an employment
target for the South Pickering
Urban Area of 51,200 jobs for
the year 2016;
(b) despite Section 2.11(a)
adopts an employment target
for the City Centre of 13,500
jobs for the year 2031; and
(c) shall endeavour to
accommodate urban
employment in the South
Pickering Urban Area as
follows:
(i) primarily in Mixed Use Areas
and Employment Areas as
designated on Schedule I to
this Plan; and
(ii) as home occupations in
Urban Residential Areas
Seaton Urban Area
Population and Employment
2.13 City Council supports:
(a) the development of an
urban community that will
accommodate 61,000 people
by 2031 and
regional services and
infrastructure are in place to
accommodate the provincial
population and employment
forecasts within the Regional
Structure by 2051:
a) 1,300,000 people; and
b) 460,000 jobs.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-4
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
be planned to accommodate up
to 70,000 people through long-
term intensification. This
population is based on the
policy direction for compact
development, higher densities
and
the direction to use land and
services more efficiently. The
Community Nodes and to a
lesser
extent the Mixed Corridors may
develop first with primarily
commercial uses and intensify
over time with a broader mix of
uses, which will contribute to
long-term intensification. The
2031 population by
Neighbourhood, within the
Seaton Urban Area, is set out
in Table 1B;
(b) the development of an
urban community that will
accommodate 30,500 jobs by
2031 and be
planned to accommodate
35,000 jobs through long-term
intensification. This
employment
shall be provided:
(i) in office, manufacturing and
service industries in the
Prestige Employment
designation;
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-5
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
(ii) in office, retail and service
industries in the Community
Node and Mixed Corridor
designations and in small
commercial stores in the
neighbourhood nodes;
(iii) in institutional and
recreational facilities
throughout the residential
designations and
mixed use designations; and
(iv) as home occupations in all
residential and mixed use
designations.
Rural Population Target and
Allocation
2.20 City Council adopts an
overall population forecast for
rural Pickering of 4,330 to
4,525 people for the year 2031,
which represents an 15 year
increase of approximately 200
people; this increase in rural
population shall be
accommodated as follows:
(a) at least 80 people in
hamlets and clusters identified
by this Plan; and
(b) up to about 120 people on
lots existing outside of
settlements (hamlets, clusters
or country residential
settlements).
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-6
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
Also includes information
beside the Policy in a Table (as
per the below)
Rural Residential Growth
Total Rural Population Growth
(2015 to 2031) - approx. 200
people
Hamlets and Clusters - at least
80 people
Existing Lots Located Outside
of Settlements - 120 people
Treatment/presentation of housing forecasts in the Official Plan.
No housing forecast identified. Housing forecasts presented in table with
population/employment forecast.
Provincial Planning
Statement (2024):
2.1.4 To provide for an
appropriate range and mix of
housing options and densities
required to meet projected
requirements of current and
future residents of the
regional market area,
planning authorities shall:
a) maintain at all times the
ability to accommodate
residential growth for a
minimum of 15 years through
lands which are designated
and available for residential
development; and
b) maintain at all times where
new development is to occur,
land with servicing capacity
sufficient to provide at least a
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-7
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
three-year supply of
residential units available
through lands suitably zoned,
including units in draft
approved or registered plans.
2.1.5. Where planning is
conducted by an upper-tier
municipality, the land and unit
supply maintained by the
lower-tier municipality
identified in policy 2.1.4 shall
be based on and reflect the
allocation of population and
units by the upper-tier
municipality.
Defining the boundaries of an urban/settlement area or areas and phasing development
Urban systems involve people
doing a variety of things
(trading, communicating,
learning, playing, raising
families, or interacting in some
other meaningful way). As a
result, healthy and successful
urban systems have a diversity
of buildings, uses, facilities,
experiences and opportunities.
They also tend to be active,
accessible and attractive
places.
In looking at the City’s urban
system, it would be beneficial
to take a broad and integrated
1.1.3 Direct population and
employment growth to the
Urban System with limited
growth permitted within the
Rural System, including Rural
Settlements, where it is
appropriate and compatible
with surrounding uses, in
accordance with Section 6.5.
5.1.2 Recognize that a
hierarchy of Urban Areas will
continue to exist in Durham
Region consisting of:
a) the Urban Areas along the
Lake Ontario shoreline within
the municipalities of Pickering,
Provincial Planning Statement (2024)
2.3.1 General Policies for Settlement Areas
1. Settlement areas shall be the focus of growth and development. Within
settlement areas, growth should be focused in, where applicable, strategic growth
areas, including major transit station areas.
2. Land use patterns within settlement areas should be based on densities and a
mix of land uses which:
a) efficiently use land and resources;
b) optimize existing and planned infrastructure and public service facilities;
c) support active transportation;
d) are transit-supportive, as appropriate; and
e) are freight-supportive.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-8
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
perspective. Important
interrelationships between local
economy, local culture and
local identity should be
uncovered and respected.
(a) The South Pickering Urban
Area, extending from Lake
Ontario northerly to the C.P.
(Belleville) rail line which cuts
diagonally across the City from
north of Finch Avenue in the
west, to north of Taunton Road
in the east.
(b) The Seaton Urban Area,
extending northerly from the
C.P. (Belleville) rail line to
Highway 7, generally between
the West Duffins Creek and the
16th side road but also
including lands north of
Highway 7 generally between
the West Duffins Creek and
North Road as shown on Map
2.
(c) A Proposed Airport Site,
that protects lands north of
Highway 7 for a potential
airport, in the event such a
facility is established by others,
in consultation with the City.
2.6 City Council adopts the
following as its goals for its
urban system:
(a) to establish and encourage
Ajax, Whitby, Oshawa and
Clarington; and
b) the smaller Urban Areas
within the Greenbelt Plan
Area, including Beaverton,
Cannington, Sunderland,
Uxbridge, Port Perry and
Orono, surrounded by a
primarily rural landscape.
5.1.15 Support the planning
and development of Urban
Areas as complete
communities with
consideration for long-term
sustainability and adaptability.
Development within Urban
Areas will be supported on the
basis of the following
principles:
a) the achievement of
compact, urban and
pedestrian-oriented built form,
which promotes efficient use
of infrastructure, active
transportation and the
achievement of transit
supportive density;
b) logical and sequential
development patterns, with
new development generally
taking place adjacent to
existing developed areas. The
development of larger sites
shall occur through detailed
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-9
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
a “complete” urban area with a
wide mix and diversity of uses,
activities, experiences and
opportunities;
(b) to recognize and nurture
important interrelationships
between local culture, local
identity and the local economy;
(c) to provide an adaptable,
durable, safe and accessible
urban environment; and
(d) to involve residents,
business-people, landowners,
relevant public agencies, and
other interested groups and
individuals in making decisions
concerning the urban system.
2.7 City Council shall:
(a) encourage a variety of uses
in close proximity to one
another through a well
designed, compact urban form;
(b) make efficient use of
infrastructure, land and
services, and facilitate local
economic and social
interactions between people;
(c) increase overall the number
and variety of housing,
employment, educational,
cultural, recreational, and other
opportunities and experiences
within the urban area;
(d) direct new residents, jobs
planning processes, in
accordance with Policies 5.4.9
to 5.4.16;
c) a mix and diversity of uses
and amenities offering
convenient access to local
amenities, community hubs,
parks, trails, open spaces and
other recreational facilities,
services, shopping, job
opportunities and public
service facilities;
d) built form that considers
social equity, human health
and improves overall quality of
life by developing high-quality
urban environments that are
accessible to people of all
ages, abilities and incomes, in
accordance with Section 3.3;
e) commercial uses are
provided in appropriate
locations, with larger
concentrations directed to
Strategic Growth Areas as
deemed appropriate in area
municipal official plans, as
well as Rural Regional
Centres, Regional Corridors,
and Local Centres and
Corridors;
f) existing underutilized
shopping centres and plazas
are encouraged to redevelop
at higher densities with a mix
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-10
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
and activities to areas where
adequate amenities, services
and facilities either exist or will
be provided;
2.8 For planning purposes, City
Council shall consider the
following areas as Pickering’s
urban system:
(a) lands between Lake Ontario
and the C.P. (Belleville) rail line
generally known as the South
Pickering Urban Area;
(b) lands between the C.P.
(Belleville) rail line and up to
the Federal Airport lands
(generally Highway 7), west of
Sideline 16/Ajax-Pickering
boundary, east of the West
Duffins Creek, generally known
as the Seaton Urban Area; and
(c) lands north of Highway 7,
generally known as the
Proposed Airport Site
of uses including residential
uses, incorporating transit
supportive and pedestrian
oriented built form, particularly
within Strategic Growth Areas;
g) providing and enhancing
convenient access to multi-
modal transportation options,
with priority given to active
transportation options and
transit connectivity, in
accordance with Section 8.2;
h) the integration, protection
and enhancement of the
Greenlands System, including
appropriate minimum
setbacks and buffers between
development and
environmental features and
other sensitive and vulnerable
areas, in accordance with
Sections 7.1, 7.4 and 7.5;
I) with consideration of
sustainability and the effects
of development on the
environment in accordance
with Section 3.2;
j) locating outside of and away
from hazardous lands, in
accordance with Section 7.6;
k) the achievement of land
use compatibility
considerations by avoiding, or
where avoidance is not
possible, minimizing and
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mitigating any adverse effects
between sensitive land uses
and major facilities,
Employment Area uses and
other uses that may emit
odour, dust, vibration, noise
and/or other contaminates or
emissions, in accordance with
Policies 5.5.22 to 5.5.36;
l) the conservation of cultural
heritage resources in
accordance with Section 3.3
and consideration of the
impacts of development on
the integrity of historic
downtowns and/or historical
areas in accordance with
Policies 3.3.32 to 3.3.39; and
m) appropriate stormwater
management techniques and
low impact development
measures, as implemented by
area municipalities.
5.1.16 Encourage an orderly
withdrawal of agricultural
related land uses where urban
development is designated in
areas presently characterized
by agricultural activities.
Municipalities may consider
placing such areas in an
Agricultural Zone or under a
Holding Symbol in the
respective zoning by-laws.
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5.1.17 Recognize that area
municipalities may designate,
notwithstanding any other
provision of this Plan, special
purpose commercial areas
and include specific provisions
in their municipal official plans
and zoning bylaws to
distinguish the function of
these areas.
Expanding an urban/settlement area or areas
No policies around expansion of the Urban System. 5.7.2 Require area municipalities to update their
official plans to designate land for development up
to the time frame of this Plan, including Settlement
Area Boundary Expansions to the extent of the
Region’s Urban Area Boundary as shown on Map
1, provided that the amendment:
a) is only undertaken as part of a comprehensive
review of the area municipal official plan to
implement this Plan;
b) is supported by an analysis which addresses
how the growth management objectives,
population and employment forecasts, housing unit
allocation, policies and targets of this Plan are
being achieved;
c) includes a phasing strategy for greenfield areas
and intensification areas and Regional phasing
approaches in accordance with any regional water
and sanitary sewage master plans;
d) takes into consideration the implementation of a
watershed plan. The area municipality shall consult
with the Region and appropriate conservation
authority to determine if any updates are required
Provincial Planning
Statement (2024)
Municipal Comprehensive
Review (Growth
Plan)/Comprehensive
Review (PPS, 2020) have
been removed as
requirement for establishing
new Settlement Areas or
expanding boundaries of
existing Settlement Areas.
2.3.2 New Settlement
Areas and Settlement Area
Boundary Expansions
1. In identifying a new
settlement area or allowing a
settlement area boundary
expansion, planning
authorities shall consider the
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to an existing watershed plan;
e) ensures where possible, that expansions to area
municipal Urban Area Boundaries are contiguous
to existing Urban Areas and do not extend beyond
the Urban Area Boundary included on Map 1 to this
Plan; and
f) takes into consideration the extent of existing
Major Open Space designation and Natural
Heritage System, in accordance with Section 7.1,
to determine the extent of lands that may be
considered for development and be designated
accordingly.
following:
a) the need to designate and
plan for additional land to
accommodate an appropriate
range and mix of land uses;
b) if there is sufficient
capacity in existing or
planned infrastructure and
public service facilities;
c) whether the applicable
lands comprise specialty crop
areas;
d) the evaluation of
alternative locations which
avoid prime agricultural areas
and, where avoidance is not
possible, consider reasonable
alternatives on lower priority
agricultural lands in prime
agricultural areas;
e) whether the new or
expanded settlement area
complies with the minimum
distance separation formulae;
f) whether impacts on the
agricultural system are
avoided, or where avoidance
is not possible, minimized
and mitigated to the extent
feasible as determined
through an agricultural impact
assessment or equivalent
analysis, based on provincial
guidance; and
g) the new or expanded
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settlement area provides for
the phased progression of
urban development.
2. Notwithstanding policy
2.3.2.1.b), planning
authorities may identify a new
settlement area only where it
has been demonstrated that
the infrastructure and public
service facilities to support
development are planned or
available.
Allocation of growth across the municipality by establishing a hierarchy of different areas by their intended level of residential or
employment growth.
Table 1 establishes unique population targets for each of the 15
neighbourhoods delineated within the South Pickering Urban
Area.
Table 1B establishes unique population targets for each of the
six neighbourhoods delineated within the Seaton Urban Area.
Schedule I delineates Urban Residential Areas, Mixed Use
Areas, and Employment Areas, which are broken down by land
use designations supported by policies in Chapter 3.
Durham Region’s land use structure is comprised
of four systems:
- Urban System: comprised of emerging centres,
established and developing neighbourhoods and
Employment Areas. South Durham has more
compact built form, while more modest densities
predominate in north Durham, with historic
downtowns supporting the surrounding rural areas.
The Urban System accommodates the majority of
the region’s existing population and employment,
and is where most of the future growth is directed.
- Rural System: supports and protects areas of the
region with existing rural character, largely
identified by the continuous and productive
Agricultural System land base. The Rural System
includes traditional rural industries such as farming
and aggregate extraction, as well as Rural
Settlements and Regional Nodes
- Greenlands System: follows natural features and
No specific direction given.
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functions, weaving through and between the Urban
and Rural Systems. Lands within the Greenlands
System are generally meant to be preserved for
their ecological and environmental benefits, while
providing urban separations and opportunities for
recreational activities where appropriate. The
Greenlands System encompasses the Oak Ridges
Moraine, waterfronts, and key natural heritage and
key hydrological features and areas.
- Transportation System: provides access and
connections across the region – through and
between the Urban and Rural Systems. The
Transportation System is comprised of roads,
active transportation networks (including
pedestrian paths, cycle paths and trails), transit
priority networks, strategic goods networks, and
other transportation related infrastructure such as
airports, railways and ports.
Overall strategy for accommodation of residential growth, including within the existing built-up area through redevelopment, infill, etc.
2.13 Seaton Urban Area:
(a) the development of an
urban community that will
accommodate 61,000 people
by 2031 and be planned to
accommodate up to 70,000
people through long-term
intensification. This population
is based on the policy direction
for compact development,
higher densities and the
direction to use land and
services more efficiently. The
Community Nodes and to a
lesser extent the Mixed
1.1.6 Plan for and implement
services and infrastructure to
enable the achievement of a
minimum 50% annual rate of
intensification region-wide.
5.1.7 Plan for intensification
based on the forecasts and
area municipal intensification
targets contained in Figure 9.
Figure 9: Intensification
Targets Table
Table for Intensification
Targets Per Municipality, Total
Housing Unit Growth, Units
Provincial Planning Statement (2024):
2.3.1.
3 Planning authorities shall support general intensification and redevelopment to
support the achievement of complete communities, including by planning for a
range and mix of housing options and prioritizing planning and investment in the
necessary infrastructure and public service facilities.
4. Planning authorities shall establish and implement minimum targets for
intensification and redevelopment within built-up areas, based on local conditions.
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Corridors may develop first with
primarily commercial uses and
intensify over time with a
broader mix of uses, which will
contribute to long-term
intensification.
(b) the development of an
urban community that will
accommodate 30,500 jobs by
2031 and be planned to
accommodate 35,000 jobs
through long-term
intensification. This
employment shall be provided:
(i) in office, manufacturing and
service industries in the
Prestige Employment
designation;
(ii) in office, retail and service
industries in the Community
Node and Mixed Corridor
designations and in small
commercial stores in the
neighbourhood nodes;
(iii) in institutional and
recreational facilities
throughout the residential
designations and mixed use
designations; and
(iv) as home occupations in all
residential and mixed use
designations.
Employment: The provision of
high-quality employment
allocated to Intensification, %
of Municipal Total, & of
Regional Intensification Total
Intensification within the
Delineated Built-up Area
It is the policy of Council to:
5.1.10 Identify the delineated
built-up area on Map 1.
5.1.11 Achieve, on an annual
basis, a minimum of 50% of
all new residential units
across the Region as
intensification and be
constructed within the
delineated built-up area.
5.1.12 Prioritize intensification
within the delineated built-up
area in accordance with the
hierarchy of places, as
outlined in Policy 5.1.8.
5.1.13 Encourage
intensification throughout the
broader Community Areas
designation, including through
the provision of additional
residential units and other
forms of gentle intensification.
5.1.14 Require area municipal
official plans to provide
intensification strategies in
consultation with the Region,
that would include the
following:
a) implementation of
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opportunities that reflect the
needs of the community, with
the identification of sufficient
employment lands to generate
approximately one job for every
two residents with 30,500 jobs
by 2031 and up to 35,000 jobs
through long-term
intensification.
Housing and Mixed Use: The
provision of a range of housing
types and densities that meets
the needs of a diverse
population, complements
surrounding communities, and
accommodates a population of
61,000 residents by 2031 and
up to 70,000 residents through
long-term intensification at a
density that is transit
supportive.
3.2 Land Use Objectives
City Council shall:
(b) promote Kingston Road as
the City’s “Mainstreet”;
(c) promote the City Centre as
the City’s main focus for
business, employment,
entertainment, shopping, major
community and cultural uses,
major indoor recreational
facilities, high density
residential accommodation,
and as an Anchor Mobility Hub
intensification targets, in
accordance with Figure 9;
b) encouraging additional
residential units and other
forms of gentle intensification;
c) achieving the planned
function and minimum density
targets for Strategic Growth
Areas and other nodes and
corridors designated in this
Plan;
d) identifying other areas
appropriate for intensification
and determining the
appropriate scale of
development and transition to
surrounding areas;
e) addressing the availability
of existing and/or planned
transit services, municipal
water and sanitary sewage
capacity, public service
facilities, and other community
services and amenities to
support intensification;
f) updating area municipal
official plans, secondary
plans, and zoning by-laws that
support the achievement of
minimum density targets; and
g) notwithstanding the
intensification policies herein,
new or intensified
development is not directed to
Floodplain Special Policy
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for integrated transit service
including GO transit, regional
rapid transit and local bus
service;
(d) promote a land use pattern
in urban areas in support of
compact urban form, active
transportation, placemaking,
public transit and energy
conservation;
(e) while maintaining the
character of stable residential
neighbourhoods, increase the
variety and intensity of land
uses and activities in the urban
area, particularly on lands
designated Mixed Use Areas,
and Employment Areas;
3.6 Mixed Use Areas:
City Council:
(a) shall recognize as Mixed
Use Areas on Schedule I, lands
that have or are intended to
have the widest variety of uses
and highest levels of activities
in the City;
(c) in establishing performance
standards, restrictions and
provisions for Mixed Use
Areas, shall have particular
regard to the following:
(i) encouraging development in
an integrated manner for a
wide variety of uses and
Areas, and shall be subject to
the applicable provisions of
the area municipal official
plan.
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purposes; and
(ii) encouraging intensification
over time, up to the maximum
net residential densities and
maximum floorspace indices;
(d) despite Section 3.6(c)(ii)
and Table 6, may limit net
residential densities, floorspace
indices, and gross leasable
floorspace for the retailing of
goods and services below the
maximums set out in the Table:
(i) to address concerns related
to such matters as design,
compatibility and scale of
development; and
(ii) in response to provisions
specified in a Part 3
Neighbourhood Plan (Chapter
12);
(e) despite Section 3.6(c)(ii)
and Table 6, may permit net
residential densities and
floorspace indices below the
minimums set out in the Table,
if it can be demonstrated to the
City’s satisfaction that the
design, site layout, blocking,
and/or phasing of the project
can be intensified over time to
achieve at least the minimum
levels of intensity set out in the
Table;
Table 6: Mixed Use Areas:
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Densities ad Floor Areas by
Subcategory
Local Nodes:
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 30 and up to and
including 80
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services: up to and
including 10,000
(c) Max FSI: up to and
including 2.0 FSI
Community Nodes:
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 80 and up to and
including 140
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services: up to and
including 20,000
(c) Max FSI: up to and
including 2.5 FSI
Mixed Corridors:
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 30 and up to and
including 140
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services:
determined by site-specific
zoning
(c) Max FSI : up to and
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including 2.5 FSI
Speciality Retailing Node
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 80 and up to and
including 180
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services:
determined by site-specific
zoning
(c) Max FSI: up to and
including 2.5 FSI
City Centre:
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 80
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services: up to and
including 300,000
(c) Max FSI: over 0.75 and up
to and including 5.75
6.2 Housing Objectives
City Council shall:
(a) encourage housing
opportunities that respond to
the existing and future needs
and characteristics of the
population;
(b) ensure that a sufficient
supply of designated and
serviceable residential land is
available to meet the existing
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and future housing needs of
the City;
(c) encourage the provision of
an adequate range of housing
and tenure types to be
available and integrated within
the City’s neighbourhoods and
villages to meet the needs of
existing and future populations;
and
(d) encourage the provision of
an adequate supply of housing
throughout the City in terms of
quantity, quality and diversity,
including the provision of an
adequate supply of affordable,
rental, assisted and special
needs housing.
6.3 City Council shall promote
an adequate supply and mix of
housing by:
(a) maintaining a minimum 10
year supply of residentially
designated lands to meet
anticipated long-term housing
demands;
(b) maintaining a minimum 3
year supply of residential land
in the form of draft approved
plans and/or registered plans,
to meet anticipated short-term
housing demands;
(c) encouraging the production
of new residential dwelling
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units in accordance with
housing targets for average
annual production, unit mix,
and location, as established in
Appendix I - Quality of Life
Indicators and Performance
Targets; and
(d) obtaining the following
distribution of housing forms
throughout the municipality
during the timeframe of this
Plan:
(i) 57 percent single detached
homes;
(ii) 12 percent semi-detached
homes;
(iii) 19 percent attached homes;
and
(iv) 12 percent apartments
6.5 Infill, Intensification, and
Redevelopment:
City Council shall maximize the
efficiency of existing
infrastructure and minimize the
consumption of vacant land by
establishing a target of
approximately 11,500
additional residential units
within the South Pickering
Urban Area by the year 2016,
accommodated by
encouraging:
(a) major intensification in
Mixed Use Areas as
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designated on Schedule I;
(b) infill development of vacant
or under utilized blocks of land;
(c) in Mixed Use Areas and
Residential Areas,
redevelopment and conversion
of non-residential uses to
residential uses, including the
addition of residential uses in
mixed use forms; and
(d) methods for the provision of
compact housing form, with
regard to housing type,
architectural design and cost-
effective development
standards, where technically
feasible.
*Almost all intensification
activity occurring in Pickering
over the next twenty years will
be on those lands designated
as Mixed Use Areas, not low
density residential areas.
Infilling occurs in low density
areas on vacant or
underutilized parcels of land.
The effect of this will be to
improve the level and range of
services available to most
residents, without changing the
character of their
neighbourhoods.
Infrastructure
7.10 City Council shall:
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(a) encourage appropriate
intensification and use of
existing municipal
infrastructure, including roads
and storm sewers;
(b) encourage appropriate
intensification and use of
existing regional infrastructure,
including roads, piped water
and sanitary sewers;
Community Nodes
11.4 City Council:
(a) shall require Community
Nodes to be mixed use nodes
containing commercial and
residential uses that will
intensify over time. The
Community Nodes are located
so that the majority of future
patrons are within a 10 to 20
minute walk of a Community
Node;
(c) despite the policies of Table
6, shall permit a minimum of
10,000 square metres and a
maximum of 20,000 square
metres of gross leasable floor
space for the retailing of goods
and services within the
Community Nodes within the
Seaton Urban Area. The
minimum retail space
requirement shall not be
interpreted as requiring the full
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minimum floor area at initial
development provided the land
is available to realize the
minimum space requirement;
(d) despite the policies of Table
6, shall permit the Community
Node on Taunton Road to be
larger and contain a broader
range of retail goods including
large format retailers up to a
total maximum gross leasable
floor space of 60,000 square
metres for the retailing of
goods and services subject to
the built form policies set out in
Sections 11.7 and 11.8; and
(e) despite the policies of Table
5, shall prohibit the following
uses in Community Nodes:
(i) single-detached and semi-
detached dwelling units; and
(ii) automotive and vehicle
sales.
Mixed Corridors
11.5 City Council shall:
(a) shall require Mixed
Corridors to be developed with
a mix of multiple unit housing
types. Retail uses are
permitted at grade and
encouraged at entrances to the
adjacent residential
neighbourhoods;
(b) may permit interim sole
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commercial uses, where
current market conditions are
not conducive to high density
residential development,
subject to the policies on
interim uses in Section 11.8. It
is City Council’s intent that
these sole commercial uses
intensify to mixed use
development at or above the
minimum densities as the
Seaton Urban Area matures;
(c) despite the policies of Table
6, shall require the minimum
residential density for Mixed
Corridors within the Seaton
Urban Area to be 40 units per
net hectare and one FSI except
as set out in Section 11.8;
(d) despite the Mixed Corridor
density range, may establish,
through the neighbourhood
plans, a land use subcategory
with a residential density of
over 60 and up to and including
180 units per net hectare,
provided the overall maximum
density for the Mixed Corridors
in Table 6 is not exceeded;
(e) despite the policies of Table
5, shall prohibit single-
detached and semi-detached
dwelling units in Mixed
Corridors; and
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Mixed Corridor Intensification
Over Time
11.6 City Council:
(a) recognizes that the Mixed
Corridors may not be fully built
out in the first wave of
development;
(b) acknowledges that the
Mixed Corridor lands around
the GO Transit Station and
along the primary transit
corridors are key intensification
areas;
(c) shall require Neighbourhood
Plans to consider and allow for
the potential for more intensive
land use activities and higher
densities to develop over time
as the Seaton Urban Area
matures; and
(d) shall require
Neighbourhood Plans to
identify gateway sites which will
be reserved for future higher
density intensification or if
initially developed with interim
uses at lower density, will be
planned or phased so as to not
inhibit future intensification.
Built form and Urban Design of
Mixed Corridors, and
Community Nodes
11.7 City Council shall require
a strong pedestrian focus be
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created within the Community
Nodes and Mixed Corridors. To
achieve this focus,
development shall adhere to
the following built form and
urban design principles which
shall be further illustrated in the
Sustainable Placemaking
Guidelines for the Seaton
Urban Area:
(b) Pedestrian Predominant
Streets:
(vi) a minimum height of 2
storeys for sole commercial
buildings shall be encouraged;
(d) Building Heights:
(i) building heights for
residential and mixed use
buildings shall range from 3
storeys to up to 20 storeys at
gateway sites;
(ii) stand-alone commercial
uses shall have a minimum
height generally of 5.0 metres
subject to the policies on
interim uses in Section 11.8;
(iii) buildings taller than 4
storeys shall be designed with
a stepback, at an appropriate
height, for all building facades
that front onto a public or
private road; and
(iv) buildings taller than 4
storeys immediately abutting
an existing or planned Low or
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Medium Density residential
designation shall be designed,
where necessary, to create a
transition of heights and
minimize compatibility issues.
Interim Uses within Community
Nodes & Mixed Corridors
11.8 Where sole commercial
uses at lower minimum density
and heights are proposed in
the initial phases of
development, City Council shall
require applicants, for site plan
approval, to submit a
development concept and
intensification plan
demonstrating how the ultimate
density and other objectives for
the site can be achieved. The
intensification plan shall
address and illustrate:
(c) how the property may
accommodate a mix of uses
and how it will intensify over
time including addressing and
illustrating such matters as:
(i) the provision of public roads
and small blocks;
(ii) the siting and orientation of
buildings, which do not
preclude future intensification;
(iii) the ability to achieve both
short-term and longer term
intensification;
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(iv) the location of parking for
the initial development and
potential changes to parking to
accommodate the
intensification process; and
(v) the phasing of the
intensification of the site to
realize the ultimate built form;
Higher Intensity Nodes
11.35 City Council shall require
Neighbourhood Plans for
Neighbourhoods 20 and 21 to
identify and protect for higher
intensity employment uses in
the vicinity of the Highway
407/ETR Transitway stations in
the Prestige Employment
designation. These nodes
including the transit stations
shall be considered as long-
term intensification areas, and
City Council shall encourage
increased office development
through intensification of
commuter parking lots over
time and on other sites around
the interchanges..
Delineation of and policies for greenfield areas, including any specified minimum density targets.
No specific policies related to greenfield areas/development
identified.
Designation Greenfield Areas
5.4.5 Identify and plan for designated greenfield
areas which includes lands within Community
Areas, certain Strategic Growth Areas and other
Provincial Planning
Statement (2024):
Designated Greenfield Area
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nodes and corridors that are outside of the
delineated built-up area on Map 1.
5.4.5.1 Development within the designated
greenfield area shall be planned to achieve a
minimum density target of not less than 53 people
and jobs per hectare.
5.4.6 Support the implementation of complete
communities by encouraging the achievement of
more compact and higher density forms of
development beyond the minimum designated
greenfield areas density target prescribed under
the Growth Plan.
5.4.7 Measure designated greenfield area densities
following a methodology that excludes the following
features:
a) natural heritage features and areas, natural
heritage systems, floodplains and active erosion
zones, provided development is prohibited in these
areas;
b) rights-of-way for:
i) electricity transmission systems;
ii) energy transmission pipelines
iii) freeways (400 series highways), as defined by
and mapped as part of the Ontario Road Network;
iv) railways;
c) Employment Areas; and
d) cemeteries.
5.4.8 Require large-scale development in
designated greenfield areas to be informed by a
sub watershed plan or equivalent prior to draft
approval of any proposed plans of subdivision or
condominium.
Urban Expansion Areas
5.7.1 Identify on Map 1 lands within the 2051
is deleted as a term and
replaced by
Designated Growth Area:
means lands within
settlement areas designated
for growth or lands added to
settlement areas that have
not yet been fully developed.
Designated growth areas
include lands which are
designated and available for
residential growth in
accordance with policy
2.1.4.a), as well as lands
required for employment and
other uses.
Built-boundary and Built-up
Area are deleted as formal
defined terms. Built-up area
is used (but not defined) to
describe lands in Settlement
Areas "where development is
concentrated and which have
a mix of land uses"
5. Planning authorities are
encouraged to establish
density targets for designated
growth areas, based on local
conditions. Large and fast-
growing municipalities are
encouraged to plan for a
target of 50 residents and
jobs per gross hectare in
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-33
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Urban Expansion Areas.
5.7.2 Require area municipalities to update their
official plans to designate land for development up
to the time frame of this Plan, including Settlement
Area Boundary Expansions to the extent of the
Region’s Urban Area Boundary as shown on Map
1, provided that the amendment:
a) is only undertaken as part of a comprehensive
review of the area municipal official plan to
implement this Plan;
b) is supported by an analysis which addresses
how the growth management objectives,
population and employment forecasts, housing unit
allocation, policies and targets of this Plan are
being achieved;
c) includes a phasing strategy for greenfield areas
and intensification areas and Regional phasing
approaches in accordance with any regional water
and sanitary sewage master plans;
d) takes into consideration the implementation of a
watershed plan. The area municipality shall consult
with the Region and appropriate conservation
authority to determine if any updates are required
to an existing watershed plan;
e) ensures where possible, that expansions to area
municipal Urban Area Boundaries are contiguous
to existing Urban Areas and do not extend beyond
the Urban Area Boundary included on Map 1 to this
Plan; and
f) takes into consideration the extent of existing
Major Open Space designation and Natural
Heritage System, in accordance with Section 7.1,
to determine the extent of lands that may be
considered for development and be designated
accordingly
designated growth areas.
6. Planning authorities should
establish and implement
phasing policies, where
appropriate, to ensure that
development within
designated growth areas is
orderly and aligns with the
timely provision of the
infrastructure and public
service facilities.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-34
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5.7.3 Require and support detailed planning by the
area municipalities for lands within the 2051 Urban
Expansion Areas, primarily through the preparation
of secondary plans that meets and goes beyond
the requirements of Policies 5.4.9 to 5.4.16, and
includes the following:
a) confirmation of the availability of existing or
planned infrastructure and public service facilities,
as informed by a regional water supply and
sanitary sewage master plan and transportation
master plan, or equivalent;
b) preparation of a Fiscal Impact Study and other
servicing plans and background studies that
demonstrate how orderly and sequential
development will be implemented, and how the
provision of Regional infrastructure and municipal
services will be financially viable over their full life
cycle and within the financial capacity of the
Region and the area municipality;
c) preparation of a master environmental servicing
plan which demonstrates the planned development
and proposed servicing extensions will avoid, or
where avoidance is not possible, minimize and
mitigate any potential impacts on watershed
conditions and the water resource system,
including water quality and quantity, erosion and
water balance;
d) preparation of a sub watershed plan or
equivalent;
e) preparation of a stormwater master plan or
equivalent;
f) studies which identify how the natural heritage
system and water resource system, including key
hydrologic areas, will be protected, restored and
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enhanced in an urban context, and how enhanced
natural heritage systems and natural coverage
targets identified in this Plan or the applicable
watershed plan(s) will be implemented;
g) preparation of an agricultural impact assessment
to assess the ability of development to avoid and/or
minimize impacts on the agri-food network and
surrounding agricultural areas. For further clarity,
existing agricultural uses and livestock facilities
within and adjacent to the 2051 Urban Expansion
Areas shall be protected, and urban development
shall be limited until such time that agricultural
impacts can be managed and compliance with
provincial Minimum Distance Separation formulae
can be demonstrated;
h) delineation of appropriate boundaries,
implementation of appropriate transit supportive
density targets, and preparation of detailed land
use policies for conceptually designated Regional
Centres and Regional Corridors;
i) delineation of appropriate boundaries for regional
Major Open Space Areas;
j) designation of Local Centres and Local Corridors
as locations for higher density mixed-use hubs for
residential, commercial and retail activity,
employment generating uses and public service
facilities for the broader area;
k) implementation of community energy plans,
including renewable and alternative energy
systems and considerations for how new
communities may achieve net-zero and/or net-zero
ready energy performance; and
l) be supported by a climate change mitigation and
adaptation plan which considers, among other
matters, climate change vulnerability.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-36
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Establishment of hierarchy of Strategic Growth Areas, policies for level of growth for each type of SGA, including density targets.
No Strategic Growth Areas or
policies identified.
However, within Mixed Use
Areas Table 6 (see General
Intensification theme) includes
(1) maximum and minimum net
residential density, (2)
maximum gross leasable
floorspace for retailing of goods
and services, and (3) maximum
floorspace index for each
Mixed Use Area subcategory
(Local Nodes, Community
Nodes, Mixed Corridors,
Speciality Retailing Node, City
Centre).
Chapter 12 also identifies the
21 Urban Neighbourhoods
which identifies specific
maximum and minimum net
residential densities, despite
Table 6, for some of the
neighbourhoods.
Additionally, within Urban
Residential Areas Table 9,
maximum and minimum net
residential densities are
identified for the Low Density
Area, Medium Density Area,
High Density Area.
5.1.8 Strive to ensure
development within Urban
Areas makes efficient use of
land, and supports the
efficient use of existing and
planned infrastructure,
including transit, municipal
water and sewage services,
and public service facilities, by
prioritizing and promoting
intensification, redevelopment
and growth within:
a) Strategic Growth Areas,
including:
Urban Growth Centres
Regional Centres
Protected Major Transit
Station Areas
Rapid Transit Corridors
5.2.2 Direct intensification and
higher density, compact forms
of residential, commercial and
employment generating uses
such as office and major
office, major institutional uses
and mixed-use development
to Strategic Growth Areas.
5.2.3 Plan for the
achievement of the following
long-term transit supportive
density targets within
Strategic Growth Areas. The
targets apply to the entirety of
Provincial Planning Statement (2024):
2.4.1 General Policies for Strategic Growth Areas
1. Planning authorities are encouraged to identify and focus growth and
development in strategic growth areas.
2. To support the achievement of complete communities, a range and mix of
housing options, intensification and more mixed-use development, strategic growth
areas should be planned:
a) to accommodate significant population and employment growth;
b) as focal areas for education, commercial, recreational, and cultural uses;
c) to accommodate and support the transit network and provide connection points
for inter- and intra-regional transit; and
d) to support affordable, accessible, and equitable housing.
3. Planning authorities should:
a) prioritize planning and investment for infrastructure and public service facilities in
strategic growth areas;
b) identify the appropriate type and scale of development in strategic growth areas
and the transition of built form to adjacent areas;
c) permit development and intensification in strategic growth areas to support the
achievement of complete communities and a compact built form;
d) consider a student housing strategy when planning for strategic growth areas;
and
e) support redevelopment of commercially-designated retail lands (e.g.,
underutilized shopping malls and plazas), to support mixed-use residential.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-37
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the area within the boundary
delineation and when
measuring are not netted of
undevelopable features and
are not applied on the basis of
individual parcels:
Strategic Growth Area |
Minimum Transit Supportive
Density Target
Urban Growth Centres - 200
Regional Centres (located
along the Rapid Transit
Corridor) - 150
Regional Centres (located off
of the Rapid Transit Corridor)
- 100-150
Protected Major Transit
Station Areas - 150*
Rapid Transit Corridor - 150
5.2.4 Apply the higher density
target where the boundaries
of Strategic Growth Areas,
specifically an Urban Growth
Centre, Regional Centre,
Protected Major Transit
Station Area or Rapid Transit
Corridor, coincide or overlap
with each other or with
another designation.
5.2.5 Allow Strategic Growth
Areas to achieve their planned
potential by protecting these
areas from uses and activities
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-38
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that should be accommodated
in other designations,
including low-density
residential uses, automobile-
oriented uses and low-density
employment uses, such as
warehousing, self-storage, car
washes, gas stations and
similar single storey buildings.
Existing uses may continue
but are encouraged to
intensify consistent with the
policies of this Plan.
5.2.6 Require area
municipalities to plan for
Strategic Growth Areas by
updating official plans,
secondary plans and zoning
by-laws to:
a) delineate the boundaries of
Strategic Growth Areas;
b) set out appropriate:
i) land use designations
ii) minimum residential and
employment density targets in
accordance with Figure 11;
and
iii) built form standards,
including minimum and
maximum building heights;
c) include transition policies to
guide appropriate building
heights, siting, land use
compatibility, and scale of
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-39
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new development in relation
to surrounding
neighbourhoods and areas;
d) plan for appropriate public
service facilities, parks and
recreational space, and other
supporting social and cultural
amenities within and
surrounding Strategic Growth
Areas;
e) include urban design
policies, guidelines or
approaches to promote
placemaking, active
transportation, pedestrian and
transit-oriented land uses and
built form; and
f) consider a full range of
implementation strategies to
advance development within
Strategic Growth Areas that
include as-of-right zoning,
streamlining development
approvals, introducing
community planning permit
systems in accordance with
Policy 11.3.2, or other
approaches as applicable.
5.2.7 Not support reducing
densities on sites in a
Strategic Growth Area that
have been designated or
approved for medium or high-
density development.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-40
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5.2.8 Plan for development
within Strategic Growth Areas
that:
a) incorporates transit-
oriented development design
principles, in accordance with
Policy 8.1.3, and including:
i) enhancing mobility to and
from transit services through
an urban grid system of
streets and walkways, and
providing for active
transportation connections
within Strategic Growth Areas
and adjacent neighbourhoods;
ii) orienting development and
entrances towards streets and
towards transit station and
stop locations;
iii) incorporating design
elements that contribute to
complete, active and
pedestrian-oriented streets
and public places as part of a
high-quality public realm
through measures such as
sidewalks, street furniture,
patios, seating areas, street
trees, landscaping, wayfinding
and gateway features;
iv) providing active uses and
entrances at grade, and
integrating open space, parks
and plazas along with public
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-41
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art and community spaces,
and other considerations, in
accordance with Section 3.3;
v) providing a mix of uses
including residential uses,
retail and commercial uses,
compatible employment
generating uses such as office
and major office, educational
and other institutional uses,
public service facilities and
entertainment and cultural
facilities;
vi) providing compact built
form with densities ranging
from medium to high-density,
with the highest densities
located closest to transit
station locations while
providing appropriate
transition to adjacent
neighbourhoods;
vii) facilitating the integration
of transit stations within the
community by optimizing
street crossings to stations,
reducing walking distances
and, providing sheltered
connections where
appropriate;
b) provides a range of housing
options, including additional
residential units and
affordable housing, in
accordance with Section 3.1;
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-42
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c) contributes to, and does not
detract from, the long-term
transit supportive density
targets, in accordance with
Policy 5.2.3;
d) adheres to development
limitations and setbacks to
natural features and areas
and other vulnerable areas as
described in Chapter 7;
e) contributes to, recognizes,
and conserves cultural
heritage resources, in
accordance with Section 3.3.
For greater certainty, the
inclusion of lands within a
Strategic Growth Area
boundary does not prevent
area municipal official plans
and/or zoning by-laws from
identifying and designating
properties and areas to be
protected for heritage
conservation purposes.
Where cultural heritage
resources are to be protected
over the long-term, sensitive
repurposing, limited
intensification and infill, which
do not negatively impact
heritage value, is encouraged;
and
f) addresses local road and
private access spacing and
access permissions to
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-43
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Regional arterial roads within
Strategic Growth Areas on a
case-by-case basis to the
satisfaction of the Region.
Joint access is encouraged
using cross-access
easements between
properties to reduce the
overall number of access
points along arterial roads.
Urban Growth Centres &
Regional Centres
5.2.12 Plan and develop
Urban Growth Centres as the
highest order centre within the
Urban System and the main
concentrations of urban
activities. Urban Growth
Centres shall be planned as:
a) areas of significant
population and employment
growth and as Regional focal
points for institutional, region-
wide public service facilities,
office and major office,
commercial (which may
include major retail),
recreational, cultural,
entertainment, high-density
mixed-use and residential
development, and serving as
major employment centres
supporting higher order transit
services;
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b) a built form mix of high-rise
and mid-rise development
with appropriate transitions in
building height, density and
massing to surrounding areas;
and
c) a mix of uses and public
spaces that contribute to
complete and vibrant
communities.
5.2.13 Plan and develop
Regional Centres as the main
concentrations of urban
activities, but generally at a
smaller scale than Urban
Growth Centres. Regional
Centres are intended to be
hubs for culture, services,
shopping, and key to the
identity of their broader
surrounding communities, and
shall be planned:
a) for a full and integrated
array of institutional,
commercial (which may
include major retail), public
service facilities, higher
density mixed-use and
residential development,
recreational, cultural,
entertainment, office and
major office uses; and
b) for a built form mix of
contextually appropriate high-
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-45
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rise and midrise development,
providing an appropriate
transition in building height,
density and massing to
surrounding areas, and with a
mix of uses and public spaces
that provide for complete and
vibrant communities, as
determined by area
municipalities.
5.2.14 Require area municipal
official plans to include
detailed policies for Urban
Growth Centres and Regional
Centres, including:
a) identification of a target
population-to-jobs ratio;
b) policies that support the
creation of focal points for
culture, art, entertainment,
and public assembly and
gathering through the
provision of publicly
accessible squares, parks,
cultural facilities and public
service facilities; and
c) policies that support
community hubs, government
offices, post-secondary
education facilities and health
care facilities, in accordance
with Policy 2.1.3 and Section
3.3.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-46
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Rapid Transit Corridors
5.2.24 Support the planning
and development of Rapid
Transit Corridors based on a
built form that is compact,
pedestrian-friendly, and
implements transit-oriented
development design
principles. Rapid Transit
Corridors are intended to
provide for a full range and
mix of uses including
commercial, retail,
institutional, residential,
personal services, offices and
other uses while implementing
the built form principles
contained in Policies 5.2.8
and 8.1.3.
5.2.25 Designate Employment
Areas within Rapid Transit
Corridors on Map 1 and
require that they be protected
for employment uses and not
be used for residential uses or
other sensitive land uses that
would be contrary to Section
5.5. Higher density
employment uses, including
but not limited to office and
research and development
facilities, with enhanced
architectural standards,
landscaping design and sign
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-47
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controls, are encouraged.
5.2.26 Require area municipal
official plans to include
detailed policies for Rapid
Transit Corridors that:
a) delineate Rapid Transit
Corridor boundaries in
accordance with boundaries
identified on Map 1 and
provide detailed land use
designations within the
boundary;
b) permit a full range and mix
of uses including residential,
commercial, compatible
employment uses such as
offices, and other uses, in a
higher density, compact and
pedestrian-oriented built form;
c) notwithstanding b) above,
where lands within the Rapid
Transit Corridor are
designated as Employment
Areas on Map 1, area
municipal official plans shall
identify the appropriate
employment uses which
achieve the objective of Policy
5.2.25;
d) include policies to ensure
that required transportation,
servicing and other
infrastructure is in place prior
to, or coincident with new
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-48
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development;
e) support the preparation of
segment-specific policies
through corridor studies,
master plans, secondary
planning, or other similar
comprehensive assessments
of corridor segments, as
determined by area municipal
official plans; and
f) incorporate policies that
ensure block plans are
submitted as part of
development applications to
guide development where
considerations of the context
of a broader area along the
corridor is necessary.
Delineation of Protected Major Transit station areas and accompanying policies, including minimum density targets.
No Major Transit Station Area's or policies identified. 5.2.15 Designate by amendment to this Plan
additional Protected Major Transit Station Areas in
consultation with the area municipalities and
Metrolinx, coincident with planning for existing and
future rapid transit facilities or stations.
5.2.16 Plan Protected Major Transit Station Areas
as communities centered around higher order
transit services. Permitted uses include medium
and high density residential, mixed-use
development, compatible employment generating
uses including but not limited to office and major
office, cultural and entertainment uses, commercial
and retail uses, institutional and educational uses
including post-secondary facilities, recreational and
Planning Act
S.16 (16) The official plan of
an upper-tier municipality with
planning responsibilities may
include policies that identify
the area surrounding and
including an existing or
planned higher order transit
station or stop as a protected
major transit station area and
that delineate the area’s
boundaries, and if the official
plan includes such policies it
must also contain policies
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-49
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community amenities such as parks, urban
squares, and trail systems.
5.2.17 Prohibit the following uses within Protected
Major Transit Station Areas:
a) automobile-oriented uses such as drive-through
establishments, gasoline stations, service stations
and car washes;
b) land-extensive uses such as automobile
dealerships with outdoor vehicle storage and
display areas, warehouses and storage facilities,
including self-storage facilities; and
c) any land use that would adversely affect the
achievement of the minimum density target.
5.2.19 Require development within Protected Major
Transit Station Areas to offer convenient, direct
and sheltered pedestrian access from high-density
development sites to neighbouring Commuter
Stations wherever possible, recognizing matters of
accessibility for pedestrians, cyclists and persons
of varying abilities, as well as connections to a
variety of transportation modes.
5.2.20 Recognize that the province has authorized
the use of inclusionary zoning within Protected
Major Transit Station Areas, to require the
provision of affordable housing units within new
developments.
5.2.21 Encourage area municipalities to consider
the application of inclusionary zoning in their
respective Protected Major Transit Station Areas
through housing assessment reports, secondary
planning or equivalent processes, and subsequent
that,
(a) identify the minimum
number of residents and jobs,
collectively, per hectare that
are planned to be
accommodated within the
area; and
(b) require official plans of the
relevant lower-tier
municipality or municipalities
to include policies that,
(i) identify the authorized
uses of land in the area and
of buildings or structures on
lands in the area; and
(ii) identify the minimum
densities that are authorized
with respect to buildings and
structures on lands in the
area.
S. 16 (17) If an official plan of
a lower-tier municipality that
is required to include the
policies described in
subclauses (16) (b) (i) and (ii)
is not amended to include
those policies as required by
subsection 27 (1) within one
year from the day the policies
identifying the relevant
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zoning by-law amendments.
5.2.22 Require, where development is proposed
above a rail corridor, all appropriate technical
studies be undertaken to the satisfaction of the
applicable railway authority, to ensure the
following:
a) existing and future capacity and safety of train
operations in the rail corridor will not be
compromised;
b) flexibility for future expansion to rail operations
and modifications and improvements to the track
and signal system will not be reduced; and
c) all environmental, safety and mitigation concerns
associated with such development, including noise,
vibration, air quality, parking, snow and ice
accumulation, servicing, pedestrian access and
vehicle access, and the capacity of the
transportation system
serving such development have been satisfactorily
addressed to the satisfaction of the rail authority,
the Region and the applicable area municipality.
5.2.23 Require area municipal official plans to
include detailed policies, for each Protected Major
Transit Station Area, which will:
a) delineate Protected Major Transit Station Area
boundaries coincident with the boundaries
identified on Map 1 and provide detailed land use
designations within the boundary;
b) establish minimum density, population,
employment and housing targets to demonstrate
achievement of the overall target of at least 150
people and jobs per gross hectare;
c) establish a minimum job target for Protected
protected major transit station
area in accordance with
subsection (16) of this section
come into effect, subsection
27 (2) does not apply and
instead the council of the
upper-tier municipality shall
amend the official plan of the
lower-tier municipality in the
like manner and subject to
the same requirements and
procedures as the council
that failed to make the
amendment within the one-
year period as required.
Provincial Planning
Statement (2024)
2.4.2 Major Transit Station
Areas
1. Planning authorities shall
delineate the boundaries of
major transit station areas on
higher order transit corridors
through a new official plan or
official plan amendment
adopted under section 26 of
the Planning Act. The
delineation shall define an
area within an approximately
500 to 800- metre radius of a
transit station and that
maximizes the number of
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-51
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Major Transit Station Areas;
d) enable alternative development standards to
support transit oriented development, including but
not limited to parking requirements which support
the use of transit;
e) support the creation of focal points by
concentrating the highest densities near Transit
Stations;
f) include policies or approaches to ensure that the
heights and densities of buildings are appropriately
scaled to ensure compatibility with neighbouring
lower density residential areas and appropriate
transition is provided to adjacent Employment
Areas, where applicable;
g) include policies to ensure that required
transportation, servicing and other infrastructure is
in place prior to, or coincident with new
development;
h) support the efficient use of land, including
requirements for structured parking, shared parking
and/or reduced parking as part of new
development;
i) include plans to accommodate multi-modal
access to Protected Major Transit Station Areas by
accounting for the retention or replacement of
existing station access infrastructure (pedestrian,
bus, cycle, pick-up and drop-off, and vehicle
parking) and give priority to local and inter-regional
transit, active transportation and passenger pick-up
and drop off. Include plans for the protection for
future facility expansion when new development on
existing GO Station land is proposed;
j) incorporate urban design and sustainability
guidelines to guide the desired density, built form,
building placement, access requirements and
potential transit users that are
within walking distance of the
station.
2. Within major transit station
areas on higher order transit
corridors, planning authorities
shall plan for a minimum
density target of:
a) 200 residents and jobs
combined per hectare for
those that are served by
subways;
b) 160 residents and jobs
combined per hectare for
those that are served by light
rail or
bus rapid transit; or
c) 150 residents and jobs
combined per hectare for
those that are served by
commuter
or regional rail.
3. Planning authorities are
encouraged to promote
development and
intensification within major
transit station areas, where
appropriate, by:
a) planning for land uses and
built form that supports the
achievement of minimum
density targets; and
b) supporting the
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-52
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approaches for a pedestrian-oriented public realm,
that:
i) provide appropriate transitions in building heights
to surrounding areas and public spaces;
ii) direct that all development will be designed to be
pedestrian oriented and accessible to all ages and
abilities;
iii) require buildings to frame streets, with frequent
pedestrian entrances;
iv) where feasible restrict vehicular access to
private property from adjacent local roadways;
v) support the use of rear lanes to serve
development loading, servicing and vehicular
parking access requirements rather than strictly
along local public streets, where appropriate;
vi) minimize the visual impact vehicular parking on
streets, parks, open spaces, pedestrian walkways
and other land uses.
With the exception of bus parking, surface parking
will be minimized;
vii) incorporate the use of urban design elements to
assist with orientation, including wayfinding and the
use of gateways and entrance features;
viii) require that connections to the transit stations
include pedestrian weather protection and station
wayfinding;
k) include policies that encourage placemaking
through policy approaches that:
i) ensure a well-defined public realm that provides
active gathering spaces, pedestrian destinations
and connections;
ii) support the establishment of integrated trails,
parks and open space systems for various levels of
use year-round;
iii) provide active streetscapes with sidewalks or
redevelopment of surface
parking lots within major
transit station areas, including
commuter parking lots, to be
transit-supportive and
promote complete
communities.
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multi-use paths on both sides of all roads, and
related pedestrian amenities;
iv) encourage streets and boulevards to be
designed to allow for patios, sitting areas, while
ensuring adequate space for pedestrians and
streetscape plantings for shade and beautification;
v) encourage sustainable technologies, permeable
pavers, low impact development techniques, and
designs which support the use of renewable
energy and/or district energy systems in the design
of new development, the public realm and
streetscapes;
l) include sustainable transportation policies that:
i) ensure road designs prioritize transit use,
pedestrian travel, and cycling while
accommodating automobile travel;
ii) support active transportation through safe, well-
designed and direct connections between and
amongst component uses and transit stations;
iii) Include adequate and secure long-term and
short-term bicycle parking and end-of-trip facilities;
iv) Include below grade pedestrian connections,
including knockout panels where deemed
appropriate, to facilitate a continuous pedestrian
network between development sites; and
m) require, where development is proposed
adjacent or in the vicinity of MTO permit control
areas, a transportation impact study be undertaken
to determine the impacts of proposed development
and intensification on highway interchange nodes
within the Ministry’s permit control area.
Delineation of Employment Areas and accompanying policies, including permitted uses and conversion criteria.
Chapter 3 - Section 3.8
2 Areas - 1 in western
Section 5.5
Planning Act
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-54
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
Pickering, 1 in eastern
Pickering
3.8 (a) Employment areas are
recognized as having
significant concentration of
manufacturing, assembly,
warehousing and/or related
employment opportunities.
3.8 (b) Table 7: There are 3
Employment Area
subcategories, with the
following permitted uses:
General Employment - Mainly
industrial uses, with office and
retail sales uses as an ancillary
use to an industrial operation.
Restaurant uses, and limited
personal service serving the
area.
Prestige Employment - Light
industrial uses, offices,
business parks, community,
cultural and recreation uses,
and retail sales uses as an
ancillary use to an industrial
operation. Restaurants, hotels,
financial institutions and limited
personal service uses serving
the area.
Mixed Employment - All uses
listed above are permitted.
Limited retailing of goods and
services uses serving the area.
Employment Areas are
typically situated along or near
major transportation corridors
with separation and buffering
from adjacent Community
Areas. Industrial forms of
development are directed to
locate within designated
Employment Areas.
5.5.2: Employment Areas are
recognized as locations for
primary employment
generating uses such as
manufacturing, assembly,
processing, generation, freight
and transportation,
warehousing, storage, major
facilities and similar uses that
require access to highway,
rail, shipping facilities and/or
separation from sensitive land
uses. Hotels, subject to land
use compatibility, service
industries, and limited
supportive uses including
associated retail and ancillary
facilities may also be
permitted.
5.5.5: Overall region-wide
density target within
Employment Areas: 28 jobs
per gross hectare.
S. 1 (1) In this Act,
“area of employment” means an area of land designated in an official plan for
clusters of business and economic uses, those being uses that meet the following
criteria:
1. The uses consist of business and economic uses, other than uses referred to in
paragraph 2, including any of the following:
i. Manufacturing uses.
ii. Uses related to research and development in connection with manufacturing
anything.
iii. Warehousing uses, including uses related to the movement of goods.
iv. Retail uses and office uses that are associated with uses mentioned in
subparagraphs i to iii.
v. Facilities that are ancillary to the uses mentioned in subparagraphs i to iv.
vi. Any other prescribed business and economic uses.
2. The uses are not any of the following uses:
i. Institutional uses.
ii. Commercial uses, including retail and office uses not referred to in subparagraph
1 iv;
Provincial Planning Statement (2024)
Municipal Comprehensive Review (Growth Plan)/Comprehensive Review (PPS,
2020) have been removed as requirement for removal of lands from Employment
Areas
2.8.1 Supporting a Modern Economy
3. In addition to policy 3.5, on lands within 300 metres of employment areas,
development shall avoid, or where avoidance is not possible, minimize and
mitigate potential impacts on the long-term economic viability of employment
uses within existing or planned employment areas, in accordance with
provincial guidelines.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-55
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
3.8 (c): Performance standards
for site operation and
appearance required (varied by
employment area
subcategories):
General Employment Areas -
Lowest standards.
Prestige Employment Areas -
Second highest standards
recognizing their high visibility
from major freeways and their
proximity to residential areas.
Mixed Employment Areas -
Highest standards recognizing
their highly visible and
accessible locations along
main arterial roads.
Create Opportunities for Job
Creation Particularly on the
Employment Lands Concurrent
with Residential Growth
11.31 It is the objective of City
Council to:
(b) provide sufficient
opportunity for employment in
the Seaton Urban Area to be
balanced with population, with
a ratio of approximately one job
for every two residents by
making employment lands
available to permit an
appropriate balance of
employment opportunities in
5.5.8: Encourage higher
density employment
generating uses, such as
office buildings and other
prestige employment uses, to
locate in high exposure
locations that also offer
convenient access to transit
and transportation options.
5.5.9: Encourage major office
uses within Employment
Areas where they cannot be
accommodated within
Strategic Growth Areas.
Employment Supportive &
Accessory Uses
5.5.19: Integrated and
accessory uses are permitted
within Employment Areas,
however such uses shall not
exceed 10% of the gross floor
area of the primary
employment use, to a
maximum of 2,000 square
metres.
5.5.20: Employment
supportive uses are permitted
on a limited basis, however,
such uses shall be limited in
size and scale in area
municipal official plans and
zoning by-laws to ensure as
an aggregate they only form a
2.8.2 Employment Areas
1. Planning authorities shall plan for, protect and preserve employment areas for
current and future uses, and ensure that the necessary infrastructure is provided to
support current and projected needs.
2. Planning authorities shall protect employment areas that are located in proximity
to major goods movement facilities and corridors, including facilities and corridors
identified in provincial transportation plans, for the employment area uses that
require those locations.
3. Planning authorities shall designate, protect and plan for all employment areas in
settlement areas by:
a) planning for employment area uses over the long-term that require those
locations including manufacturing, research and development in connection with
manufacturing, warehousing and goods movement, and associated retail and office
uses and ancillary facilities;
b) prohibiting residential uses, commercial uses, public service facilities and other
institutional uses;
c) prohibiting retail and office uses that are not associated with the primary
employment use;
d) prohibiting other sensitive land uses that are not ancillary to uses permitted in the
employment area; and
e) including an appropriate transition to adjacent non-employment areas to ensure
land use compatibility and economic viability.
4. Planning authorities shall assess and update employment areas identified in
official plans to ensure that this designation is appropriate to the planned function of
employment areas. In planning for employment areas, planning authorities shall
maintain land use compatibility between sensitive land uses and employment areas
in accordance with policy 3.5 to maintain the long-term operational and economic
viability of the planned uses and function of these areas.
5. Planning authorities may remove lands from employment areas only where it has
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE F-56
In-Effect City of Pickering Official Plan Envision Durham Direction Province of Ontario
Direction
conjunction with the
development of the residential
neighbourhoods;
(h) plan for a community that
will accommodate 30,500 jobs
by 2031 and be planned to
accommodate 35,000 jobs
through long-term
intensification.
11.32 Despite the permitted
uses in Table 7, City Council
shall prohibit the following uses
within the Prestige Employment
designation in the Seaton
Urban Area:
(a) retail stores including large
format retail uses except for
convenience commercial, and
retail
sales as a minor component of
an industrial operation;
(b) outdoor storage;
(c) waste processing, waste
transfer and recycling facilities;
(d) freight transfer and similar
trucking facilities;
(e) automotive and vehicle
sales and repair; and
(f) places of worship and
elementary and secondary
schools.
minor component of the
overall Employment Area (e.g.
10% of the gross floor area),
with individual uses not
exceeding 500 square metres.
Land Use Compatibility &
Sensitive Land Uses within
Employment Areas
5.5.26: Prohibit residential
uses, long-term care and
retirement homes, elementary
and secondary schools from
locating within Employment
Areas. Area municipal
OP/ZBL's may prohibit
additional sensitive land uses
as appropriate for the local
context.
been demonstrated that:
a) there is an identified need for the removal and the land is not required for
employment area uses over the long term;
b) the proposed uses would not negatively impact the overall viability of the
employment area by:
1. avoiding, or where avoidance is not possible, minimizing and mitigating potential
impacts to existing or planned employment area uses in accordance with policy 3.5;
2. maintaining access to major goods movement facilities and corridors;
c) existing or planned infrastructure and public service facilities are available to
accommodate the proposed uses; and
d) the municipality has sufficient employment lands to accommodate projected
employment growth to the horizon of the approved official plan.
3.5 Land Use Compatibility
1. Major facilities and sensitive land uses shall be planned and developed to avoid,
or if avoidance is not possible, minimize and mitigate any potential adverse effects
from odour, noise and other contaminants, minimize risk to public health and safety,
and to ensure the long-term operational and economic viability of major facilities in
accordance with provincial guidelines, standards and procedures.
2. Where avoidance is not possible in accordance with policy 3.5.1, planning
authorities shall protect the long-term viability of existing or planned industrial,
manufacturing or other major facilities that are vulnerable to encroachment by
ensuring that the planning and development of proposed adjacent sensitive land
uses is only permitted if potential adverse affects to the proposed sensitive land use
are minimized and mitigated, and potential impacts to industrial, manufacturing or
other major facilities are minimized and mitigated in accordance with provincial
guidelines, standards and procedures.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-1
Appendix G
Jurisdictional Scan
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-2
Appendix F: Jurisdictional Scan
The table below summarizes policies from the adopted or draft Official Plans from four municipalities within the Greater
Toronto Area which are comparable in size and urban context to the City of Pickering. These policies are grouped by
theme.
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Presentation of population/employment forecasts (i.e., in table vs. policy), and breakdown of forecasts by smaller area within the municipality.
Population and Employment
Forecasts are presented
through a series of tables
specific to different areas of the
City.
South Pickering Urban Area
Population Target
2.10 City Council:
(a) adopts a population target
for the South Pickering Urban
Area of 100,500 people for the
year 2016; and
(b) shall endeavour to
accommodate this population
over the time frame of the Plan
generally as set out in Table 1;
(c) despite Sections 2.10(a) and
(b), adopts a population target
for the City Centre of 13,500
people for the year 2031.
Table 1 includes the 15 South
Pickering Urban Area
Neighbourhoods with
population targets by year
(1996, 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016)
Table (Population, Housing
and Employment)
2.1.2.9 Growth forecasts
have been prepared to the
year 2051 for population,
housing, and employment
forecasts, shown in Table
1.
Table 1: 2016, 2021, 2041,
2051
Table (Population and
Employment)
2.8.1.1 - Table for
Population and
Employment Forecast for
2016, 2021, 2031, 2041,
2051
Table (Population and
Employment)
Table 2.1 - Table for
Population and
Employment Forecast
for 2016, 2021, 2031,
2041, 2051
Table (Population, Households
and Employment)
Table 3-1: Table for Population,
Households, and Employment
Forecasts for 2041 and 2051
3.2.2 This Plan will ensures that
there is adequate land capacity
to accommodate population
and employment growth to
2051.
3.2.3 Forecasted growth will be
directed to appropriate
locations to ensure that
resources and assets are
managed in a sustainable and
equitable manner and to:
a. protect ecological functions,
public health and safety;
b. optimize the use of existing
and proposed services and
infrastructure such as transit
and community infrastructure;
c. meet long term needs;
d. build strong, livable,
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-3
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
South Pickering Urban Area
Employment Target
2.11 City Council:
(a) adopts an employment
target for the South Pickering
Urban Area of 51,200 jobs for
the year 2016;
(b) despite Section 2.11(a)
adopts an employment target
for the City Centre of 13,500
jobs for the year 2031; and
(c) shall endeavour to
accommodate urban
employment in the South
Pickering Urban Area as
follows:
(i) primarily in Mixed Use Areas
and Employment Areas as
designated on Schedule I to
this Plan; and
(ii) as home occupations in
Urban Residential Areas
Seaton Urban Area
Population and Employment
2.13 City Council supports:
(a) the development of an
urban community that will
accommodate 61,000 people
by 2031 and
be planned to accommodate up
to 70,000 people through long-
term intensification. This
universally accessible, climate
resilient communities; and
e. promote economic
prosperity.
3.2.6 The City’s population and
employment forecasts are
premised on the adequacy of
services and infrastructure to
support growth in appropriate
locations. New development will
proceed according to the
planned provision of necessary
services and will not exceed the
capacity of existing and
planned infrastructure and
community infrastructure.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-4
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
population is based on the
policy direction for compact
development, higher densities
and
the direction to use land and
services more efficiently. The
Community Nodes and to a
lesser
extent the Mixed Corridors may
develop first with primarily
commercial uses and intensify
over time with a broader mix of
uses, which will contribute to
long-term intensification. The
2031 population by
Neighbourhood, within the
Seaton Urban Area, is set out in
Table 1B;
(b) the development of an
urban community that will
accommodate 30,500 jobs by
2031 and be
planned to accommodate
35,000 jobs through long-term
intensification. This
employment
shall be provided:
(i) in office, manufacturing and
service industries in the
Prestige Employment
designation;
(ii) in office, retail and service
industries in the Community
Node and Mixed Corridor
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-5
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
designations and in small
commercial stores in the
neighbourhood nodes;
(iii) in institutional and
recreational facilities throughout
the residential designations and
mixed use designations; and
(iv) as home occupations in all
residential and mixed use
designations.
Rural Population Target and
Allocation
2.20 City Council adopts an
overall population forecast for
rural Pickering of 4,330 to 4,525
people for the year 2031, which
represents an 15 year increase
of approximately 200 people;
this increase in rural population
shall be accommodated as
follows:
(a) at least 80 people in
hamlets and clusters identified
by this Plan; and
(b) up to about 120 people on
lots existing outside of
settlements (hamlets, clusters
or country residential
settlements).
Also includes information
beside the Policy in a Table (as
per the below)
Rural Residential Growth
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-6
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Total Rural Population Growth
(2015 to 2031) - approx. 200
people
Hamlets and Clusters - at least
80 people
Existing Lots Located Outside
of Settlements - 120 people
Treatment/presentation of housing forecasts in the Official Plan.
No housing forecast identified. Housing forecasts
presented in table with
population/employment
forecast.
Table (Minimum Housing
Targets)
Table 2: Minimum Housing
Targets
New housing (market and
affordable) - Total # of
Units targeted from 2021-
2051: 16,710 units,
Average Annual # of Units
from 2021-2051: 557 units
New affordable housing
units (all housing
typologies) - Total # of
Units targeted from 2021-
2051: 4,662 units, Average
Annual # of Units from
2021-2051: 155 units
New purpose-built rental
units (market and
affordable) - Total # of
Units targeted from 2021-
2051: 1,750 units, Average
Annual # of Units from
2021-2051: 58 units
New affordable purpose-
built rental units - Total #
Overall housing targets
not identified. Only
Purpose-built Rental
Targets as shown
below.
Table 3.1 Purpose-built
Rental Targets 2021-
2051
2021 to 2031: 2,750
units
2031 to 2041: 3,250
units
2041 to 2051: 2,500
units
2021-2051: 8,500 units
Housing forecasts presented in
table with
population/employment
forecast.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-7
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
of Units targeted from
2021-2051: 875 units,
Average Annual # of Units
from 2021-2051: 29 units
Table (Minimum Purpose
Built Rental Housing
Targets)
2021-2031: 500
2031-2041: 500
2041-2051: 750
2021-2051: 1,750
Defining the boundaries of an urban/settlement area or areas and phasing development
Urban systems involve people
doing a variety of things
(trading, communicating,
learning, playing, raising
families, or interacting in some
other meaningful way). As a
result, healthy and successful
urban systems have a diversity
of buildings, uses, facilities,
experiences and opportunities.
They also tend to be active,
accessible and attractive
places.
In looking at the City’s urban
system, it would be beneficial to
take a broad and integrated
perspective. Important
interrelationships between local
economy, local culture and
local identity should be
2.1.2.1 The elements that
help shape our city, found
in both the Designated
Greenfield Area and Built-
Up Area, and are the basis
for our growth management
hierarchy, as shown on
Schedule 1A and further
described in Part 2.2, are
defined as follows:
a. Centres (Urban & Town)
are those areas of
Brampton where the
highest concentration of
growth and mix of uses is
planned to occur. They
connect residential and
non-residential
opportunities and enhance
the ability for more
residents to live, work, and
2.1.1.2 Growth will be
directed in accordance
with the Town Structure,
as shown on Schedule A –
Town Structure, which
contains a number of
components that are
interrelated including:
Urban Area: Includes the
Community of Stouffville
where the highest
concentration of growth is
planned to occur on full
municipal sewage services
and municipal water
services. The Urban Area
accommodates the
broadest range and
intensity of uses along with
public service facilities
which foster the creation of
2.2.1.4 That the Urban
Area of Vaughan
includes all of the lands
within the Urban
Boundary line as shown
on Schedule 1C.
Urban Area: Lands
identified on Schedule
1 Urban Structure as
having an urban
designation including
Employment Area,
PMTSAs, Community
Area, Vaughan
Metropolitan Centre,
Primary Centre, Local
Centre, Regional
Intensification Corridor
and Primary
Intensification Corridor.
No Urban Area/Urban System
identified.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-8
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
uncovered and respected.
(a) The South Pickering Urban
Area, extending from Lake
Ontario northerly to the C.P.
(Belleville) rail line which cuts
diagonally across the City from
north of Finch Avenue in the
west, to north of Taunton Road
in the east.
(b) The Seaton Urban Area,
extending northerly from the
C.P. (Belleville) rail line to
Highway 7, generally between
the West Duffins Creek and the
16th side road but also
including lands north of
Highway 7 generally between
the West Duffins Creek and
North Road as shown on Map
2.
(c) A Proposed Airport Site, that
protects lands north of Highway
7 for a potential airport, in the
event such a facility is
established by others, in
consultation with the City.
2.6 City Council adopts the
following as its goals for its
urban system:
(a) to establish and encourage
a “complete” urban area with a
wide mix and diversity of uses,
activities, experiences and
opportunities;
play locally. Centres are
comprised of Urban
Centres and Town Centres,
noted on Schedule 1A and
Neighbourhood Centres,
which will be determined
through subsequent
planning studies.
b. Boulevards are vibrant
and prominent streets in the
city. They provide for a mix
of uses and intensity of built
form served by higher order
transit, while also providing
critical connections to the
rest of the city and region.
Boulevards are comprised
of Primary Urban
Boulevards and Secondary
Urban Boulevards. The
policy framework for
Boulevards will be
implemented through
Secondary-Level Plans.
c. Major Transit Station
Areas, as shown on
Schedules 1A and 1B, are
planned to transition over
time into vibrant high
density walkable places
that include open spaces,
services and amenities,
employment uses, an
attractive public realm, and
are located within walking
complete communities.
The Community of
Stouffville includes two
Major Transit Station
Areas and Strategic
Growth Areas which
provide desirable locations
for higher density
development through infill
and intensification. The
Designated Greenfield
Area represents areas
where comprehensively
planned new communities
will develop, while
directing appropriate
redevelopment within the
delineated Built-Up Area
through intensification.
Urban Areas form an
integral part of the Town’s
growth management
framework, promoting a
compact built form,
capitalizing on existing
infrastructure, active
transportation links, and
existing and planned
transit services.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-9
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
(b) to recognize and nurture
important interrelationships
between local culture, local
identity and the local economy;
(c) to provide an adaptable,
durable, safe and accessible
urban environment; and
(d) to involve residents,
business-people, landowners,
relevant public agencies, and
other interested groups and
individuals in making decisions
concerning the urban system.
2.7 City Council shall:
(a) encourage a variety of uses
in close proximity to one
another through a well
designed, compact urban form;
(b) make efficient use of
infrastructure, land and
services, and facilitate local
economic and social
interactions between people;
(c) increase overall the number
and variety of housing,
employment, educational,
cultural, recreational, and other
opportunities and experiences
within the urban area;
(d) direct new residents, jobs
and activities to areas where
adequate amenities, services
and facilities either exist or will
be provided;
distance or easy access to
transit facilities. These
areas will become home to
new residents and jobs that
will be able to enjoy the
features of a 15-minute
neighbourhood.
d. Corridors represent key
current and planned Priority
Bus (Züm) linkages that
provide connections within
and across Brampton and
the broader region. These
areas will provide for a mix
of uses and transit
supportive forms and
densities.
e. Community Areas reflect
locations where people live,
shop, work and play,
including a mix of new and
existing residential,
commercial, and
residential-serving
institutional areas of
Brampton, with the
amenities, including parks
and open spaces, they
need for day-to-day living
within a 15-minute walk or
bicycle ride from their
home.
2.2.3 Centres
Centres form part of the
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-10
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
2.8 For planning purposes, City
Council shall consider the
following areas as Pickering’s
urban system:
(a) lands between Lake Ontario
and the C.P. (Belleville) rail line
generally known as the South
Pickering Urban Area;
(b) lands between the C.P.
(Belleville) rail line and up to the
Federal Airport lands (generally
Highway 7), west of Sideline
16/Ajax-Pickering boundary,
east of the West Duffins Creek,
generally known as the Seaton
Urban Area; and
(c) lands north of Highway 7,
generally known as the
Proposed Airport Site
City-Wide Growth
Management Framework.
Centres are generally
focused on one or more
Rapid Transit or Regional
Rail stops. The greatest
density of people and
activities will be located
around these stops.
Centres will feature a
compact built form and mix
of retail, office, parks and
open space and, public
uses and community
facilities such as libraries
and government offices,
and a variety of housing
choices. Due to their
compact nature, short trips
as a pedestrian or cyclist
can be prioritized and
maximized.
There are three types of
centres:
• Urban Centres
• Town Centres: Town
Centres are mixed-use
centres which serve and
connect to surrounding
Neighbourhoods, providing
locations for secondary
intensification compared
with Urban Centres.
• Neighbourhood Centres:
will provide for a range of
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-11
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
neighbourhood supportive
uses, such as local scale
retail, service and office
uses, cultural and
recreational facilities,
contribute to the proximity,
density, and diversity
elements of a 15-minute
neighbourhood and provide
amenities for residents to
access primarily as
pedestrians or by bike or
transit.
Expanding an urban/settlement area or areas
No policies around expansion
of the Urban System.
2.1.2.16 The identification
of new or additional
Settlement Areas and
conversions of Employment
Areas to non-employment
uses may only occur as
part of the Region of Peel’s
Municipal Comprehensive
Review, as set out by
Provincial policies and in
accordance with the
policies of the Region of
Peel Official Plan.
2.1.2.29 Minor adjustments
to the boundary of the
Provincial Urban Growth
Centre (Schedule 5) may
be permitted through an
Official Plan Amendment
2.8.3.1 The Town will:
a. Ensure that the timing
and progression of new
growth and development
and the provision of
Regional and Town
infrastructure to support
growth to 2051 be phased
based on the following
principles:
d. Plan for a settlement
area boundary expansion
within New Urban Areas,
in accordance with
approvals and direction
provided by the Province
and York Region.
7.8.1.1 Interpretation of
the policies and Schedules
2.1.1.4 To address the
City’s land-use planning
challenges and to
manage future growth,
the primary objectives
of this Plan include:
r. ensuring
development is phased
in an appropriate
manner to allow for the
creation of complete
communities and that
such phasing is
coordinated with
infrastructure
investments made by
the development
community, the City
and York Region and
that development in
Fully built out - N/A
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-12
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
which demonstrates that
the achievement of the
planned density targets is
not negatively affected and
consistent with other
policies of this Plan.
2.2.1.2 Overlays, shown on
Schedule 1A, apply to one
or more of the underlying
designations. The following
provides a summary of
each overlay which forms
Our Strategy for Building an
Urban City:
a. The Urban Centre and
Town Centre are
conceptual overlays which
indicate the City’s principal
locations for growth,
accommodate important
regional amenities, and
provide for the greatest mix
of uses, intensity, form, and
scale in Brampton. The
exact boundaries for these
areas will be determined
through their respective
Secondary Plan processes.
of this Plan are guided by
the following:
c. The boundaries of the
land use designations on
the Land Use Schedules
will be considered
approximate, except
where they coincide with
roads, railways, lot and
concession lines, major
watercourses, or other
definitive physical
features. Where the
general intent of the Plan
is maintained, minor land
use boundary adjustments
will not require an
amendment to this Plan.
Any change to a
settlement area boundary
will require a Regional
Official Plan Amendment.
Urban Expansion Areas
will not occur until
adjacent Community
Areas or Employment
Areas have achieved
their minimum
intensification targets or
density targets;
2.2.5 Urban Expansion
Areas
In order to
accommodate
forecasted growth to
2051, expansions to the
Urban Area are
required. These urban
expansion areas
comprise the remainder
of the City’s “Whitebelt”
lands – those lands
between the City’s
existing urban
boundary and municipal
boundary which are not
contained within the
Greenbelt Plan or Oak
Ridges Moraine
Conservation Plan
Areas. These
expansion areas are
illustrated as an overlay
on Schedule 1C.
Development within
these areas will not
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-13
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
proceed prior to the
City’s required service
enhancements having
taken place, in
cooperation with the
City and the
development
community as it relates
to the financing and
development of those
required services.
2.2.5.1 That the Urban
Expansion Area overlay
on Schedule 1C shows
the New Community
Areas and New
Employment Areas in
the City of Vaughan
added to the City’s
Urban Areas of the
York Region Official
Plan.
2.2.5.2 That
development in Urban
Expansion Areas will
occur in a phased
manner pursuant to the
conditions of policies
2.2.3.10 through
2.2.3.12 and will not
proceed until York
Region has extended
Regional water and
wastewater services to
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-14
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
those areas and subject
to allocation granted by
Council. Permitted uses
shall be limited to legal
uses currently in
existence at the time
this Plan comes into
effect until the service
extensions are
complete.
2.3.1.4 That
development in Urban
Expansion Areas will
not occur until adjacent
Community Areas or
Employment Areas
have achieved their
minimum intensification
targets or density
targets.
Allocation of growth across the municipality by establishing a hierarchy of different
areas by their intended level of residential or employment growth.
Table 1 establishes unique
population targets for each of
the 15 neighbourhoods
delineated within the South
Pickering Urban Area.
Table 1B establishes unique
population targets for each of
the six neighbourhoods
delineated within the Seaton
Urban Area.
Centres,
Boulevards, Corridors,
Major Transit
Station Areas,
Neighbourhoods,
Employment Areas
Natural Heritage System
Overlays:
Urban Centres
Town Centres
Primary Urban Boulevards
Urban Area: highest
concentration of growth is
planned to occur on full
municipal sewage services
and municipal water
services
Community Area:
accommodate a range of
residential, commercial,
employment and
institutional areas, where
people live, shop, work
Strategic Growth Areas
in descending order of
density and intensity of
use, as follows:
i. the Vaughan
Metropolitan Centre
(VMC)
ii. Primary Centres
iii. Protected Major
Transit Station Areas
(PMTSAs)
iv. Regional
Urban Growth Centre: includes
the Downtown Core, Fairview,
Cooksville and Hospital
Character Areas. The
Downtown Core Character Area
will contain the highest
densities, tallest buildings and
greatest mix of uses. The
Fairview, Cooksville and
Hospital Character Areas will
provide for a diverse mix of
uses, but with lesser densities
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-15
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Schedule I delineates Urban
Residential Areas, Mixed Use
Areas, and Employment Areas,
which are broken down by land
use designations supported by
policies in Chapter 3.
Secondary Urban
Boulevards
2.1.2.27 To optimize the
use of land in Brampton, a
significant portion of growth
will be directed to Centres
and Boulevards.
Table 2 establishes the
minimum density targets for
each Centre which includes
the City’s Urban Growth
Centre (200 residents and
jobs combined per hectare
by 2031). Table 2 includes
Location, Classification,
Minimum Density Target,
Additional Policy Context
2.2.3.4 Growth in the city
will be directed to Centres
and Boulevards as shown
on Schedule 1A in order to
achieve the following:
a. The efficient use of land,
infrastructure and services.
b. A concentration of
people and employment
opportunities in areas that
have convenient access to
transit and that supports
trips made by active modes
of transportation.
c. A broad range of uses in
accordance with the
and play, with the
amenities they need for
day-to-day living
accessible close to home
Hamlet Area: Limited
redevelopment and infill
growth is anticipated on
individual on-site water
services and individual on-
site sewage services
New Urban Area: lands
located outside the
Greenbelt Area, which
have been identified
through the Region’s
Municipal Comprehensive
Review as urban
expansion areas to
accommodate job and
population growth to 2051.
These lands include
Designated Greenfield
Areas and are subject to a
Secondary Plan process
that will further delineate
community and
employment areas.
Growth is planned to occur
on municipal sewage
services and municipal
water services.
Agricultural System Area:
accommodate a robust
and productive land base
for agriculture while
Intensification Corridors
v. Local Centres
vi. Primary
Intensification Corridors
Community Areas:
primarily intended for
residential uses
anchored by secondary
supportive uses,
including parks,
community, institutional
and retail uses
Employment Areas:
preserves lands shown
as Employment Areas
for a variety of
industrial,
manufacturing,
warehousing, small and
medium-sized offices,
ancillary retail uses and
parks that support
higher order transit, the
city’s two rail yards and
provide highway
access.
Natural Areas and
Agriculture: conserves
the Natural Areas and
Agricultural System for
environmental,
agricultural or rural
purposes, and restricts
the encroachment of
and heights than the Downtown
Core.
Major Transit Station Areas:
accommodate future growth
with transit supportive
development reflective of their
local context. Major Transit
Station Areas are an overlay
and their boundaries may
include one or more City
Structure elements and
Character Areas. They
incorporate sites in proximity to
existing or planned higher order
transit stations or stops within
the City of Mississauga.
Major Nodes: will generally
provide for a mix of population
and employment uses at
densities and heights less than
the Urban Growth Centre, but
greater than elsewhere in the
city. Major Nodes include the
Central Erin Mills, Lakeview
Waterfront and Uptown
Character Areas.
Community Nodes will provide
for a similar mix of uses as in
Major Nodes, but with lower
densities and heights.
3.3.5.3 Growth will be primarily
directed towards the Strategic
Growth Areas being the Urban
Growth Centre, Major Nodes,
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-16
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
permitted uses of this
section to support complete
communities and the
creation of 15-minute
neighbourhoods city-wide.
d. Building types and
tenures to provide a full mix
and range of housing
options, including
opportunities for people of
all means and abilities to be
affordably, suitably and
adequately housed.
e. Places for people to
gather safely, celebrate
culture and cultural
heritage, and promote
economic activity.
f. Improved air quality,
energy efficiency, and
reduced greenhouse gas
emissions.
g. Green infrastructure to
improve surface and
groundwater quality.
supporting a sustainable
agri-food network, tourism,
low intensity recreation
uses, and natural heritage
resources
Natural Heritage System
Area: Includes lands with
significant natural heritage
features and water
resources which include
woodlands, watercourses,
valleylands, habitats for
endangered species,
significant habitats, and
wetlands
Growth will be primarily
directed to the settlement
areas (Urban Area &
Community Areas),
particularly within MTSAs
and Strategic Growth
Areas within the
Community of Stouffville
through infill and
intensification, as well as
new community
development within the
Designated Greenfield
Areas. New Urban Areas
will also be the focus of
accommodating the
projected increases in
population and
employment to achieve the
urban uses into these
areas;
Community Nodes, and Major
Transit Station Areas
Figure 3.2 - A summary of
height and density
requirements for the City
Structure elements.
Urban Growth Centre
(Downtown Core) - Planned
Density: 400+, Overview of
Planned Built Form: Greatest
heights and densities in the city
– no maximums specified
Urban Growth Centre (Fairview,
Cooksville, Hospital) - Planned
Density: 300+, Overview of
Planned Built Form: Generally
tall buildings with a variation in
height
Major Nodes - Planned Density:
250+, Overview of Planned
Built Form: Generally mid-rise
and tall buildings, with some
transitional low-rise buildings
Community Nodes (Malton,
Meadowvale, Rathwood-
Applewood Sheridan and South
Common) - Planned Density:
150-250, Overview of Planned
Built Form: A mixture of low-
rise, mid-rise and tall buildings)
Community Nodes (Clarkson
Village, Dixie Dundas, Port
Credit and Streetsville) -
Planned Density: 100-200+,
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-17
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Town’s growth forecasts to
2051.
Overview of Planned Built
Form: A mixture of low-rise,
mid-rise and tall buildings but
variation depending on
Character Area policies
Employment Areas - Planned
Density: Generally not
specified, Overview of Planned
Built Form: Generally a mixture
of low-rise and mid-rise
buildings with some tall
buildings where existing offices
are concentrated
Neighbourhoods - Planned
Density: Generally not
specified, Overview of Planned
Built Form: Per land use
designation / Character Area
policies but mostly low rise
Major Transit Station Areas
(MTSAs) - Planned Density:
Min. as specified for each
MTSA, Overview of Planned
Built Form: as specified for
each MTSA
Overall strategy for accommodation of residential growth, including within the
existing built-up area through redevelopment, infill, etc.
2.13 Seaton Urban Area:
(a) the development of an
urban community that will
accommodate 61,000 people
by 2031 and be planned to
accommodate up to 70,000
people through long-term
intensification. This population
Centres
Boulevards
Corridors
Major Transit Station Areas
Neighbourhoods
Employment Areas
Natural Heritage System
1.3.1.1 It is a goal of this
Official Plan that the
Community of Stouffville
will:
a. Continue to be the
primary focus of
intensification for
population and
2.1.1.4 To address the
City’s land-use planning
challenges and to
manage future growth,
the primary objectives
of this Plan include:
b. directing a minimum
intensification target of
3.2.4 Most of Mississauga’s
future growth will be directed to
Strategic Growth Areas, which
are the Urban Growth Centre,
Major Nodes, Community
Nodes, and Major Transit
Station Areas
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-18
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
is based on the policy direction
for compact development,
higher densities and the
direction to use land and
services more efficiently. The
Community Nodes and to a
lesser extent the Mixed
Corridors may develop first with
primarily commercial uses and
intensify over time with a
broader mix of uses, which will
contribute to long-term
intensification.
(b) the development of an
urban community that will
accommodate 30,500 jobs by
2031 and be planned to
accommodate 35,000 jobs
through long-term
intensification. This
employment shall be provided:
(i) in office, manufacturing and
service industries in the
Prestige Employment
designation;
(ii) in office, retail and service
industries in the Community
Node and Mixed Corridor
designations and in small
commercial stores in the
neighbourhood nodes;
(iii) in institutional and
recreational facilities throughout
the residential designations and
mixed use designations; and
Overlays:
Urban Centres
Town Centres
Primary Urban Boulevards
Secondary Urban
Boulevards
2.1.2.10 Most growth will
occur within the Built-Up
Area (Schedule 5) in
Strategic Growth Areas of
the city, with a majority of
residential growth being
through intensification,
increasing over time during
the planning horizon. Most
of the employment growth
will occur within the
designated Employment
Areas in the Built-Up Area.
2.1.2.12 Sufficient lands
and opportunities for
strategic intensification
have been identified
through this Plan to meet
the projected growth
requirements for
population, housing, and
jobs until 2051.
2.1.2.20 Intensification in
Brampton will be
accommodated by:
a. Directing intensification,
employment growth.
2.2.2.1 The majority of
forecasted population
growth and population–
related employment
growth will be directed to
the Community of
Stouffville through
intensification and directed
to the Major Transit
Station Areas (MTSAs).
2.3.1.3 That greenfield
development:
a. will be supported by
water and wastewater
expansion as require, by
York Region and the City;
b. will be guided by new
Secondary Plans or
updates to existing
Secondary Plans; and
c. will proceed in a phased
manner alongside
development of
infrastructure and
provision of services to
enable complete
communities
2.8.1.1 The Town will:
k. Ensure a minimum 15-
year supply of land
designated for housing
58%, representing
51,300 new residentials
units to be developed
up to 2051 within the
built-up area;
c. supporting a
transition to higher-
density housing forms
throughout the built-up
area;
d. identifying Strategic
Growth Areas as the
primary locations for
accommodating
intensification;
r. ensuring
development is phased
in an appropriate
manner to allow for the
creation of complete
communities and that
such phasing is
coordinated with
infrastructure
investments made by
the development
community, the
City and York Region
and that development
in Urban Expansion
Areas will not occur
until adjacent
Community Areas or
Employment Areas
have achieved their
3.2.6 The City’s population and
employment forecasts are
premised on the adequacy of
services and infrastructure to
support growth in appropriate
locations. New development will
proceed according to the
planned provision of necessary
services and will not exceed the
capacity of existing and
planned infrastructure and
community infrastructure.
5.3.1.1 Mississauga will work,
in accordance with projected
requirements and available land
resources, to maintain at all
times:
a) the ability to accommodate
residential growth for a
minimum of 15 years through
residential intensification and
redevelopment and lands which
are designated and available
for residential development;
and
b) where new development is to
occur, land with servicing
capacity sufficient to provide at
least a three-year supply of
residential units available
through lands suitably zoned to
facilitate residential
intensification and
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-19
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
(iv) as home occupations in all
residential and mixed use
designations.
Employment: The provision of
high-quality employment
opportunities that reflect the
needs of the community, with
the identification of sufficient
employment lands to generate
approximately one job for every
two residents with 30,500 jobs
by 2031 and up to 35,000 jobs
through long-term
intensification.
Housing and Mixed Use: The
provision of a range of housing
types and densities that meets
the needs of a diverse
population, complements
surrounding communities, and
accommodates a population of
61,000 residents by 2031 and
up to 70,000 residents through
long-term intensification at a
density that is transit
supportive.
3.2 Land Use Objectives
City Council shall:
(b) promote Kingston Road as
the City’s “Mainstreet”;
(c) promote the City Centre as
the City’s main focus for
business, employment,
with the highest densities
and heights primarily to
Centres, which includes the
Provincial Urban Growth
Centre, Urban Centres,
Town Centres, Boulevards,
along Corridors and within
Major Transit Station Areas.
b. Promoting a variety of
built forms along
Boulevards and Corridors.
Development in these
areas will respond to the
existing and planned built
form context in their
respective designations,
subject to the transition,
form and design policies of
this Plan.
c. Promoting gentle
intensification in
Neighbourhoods.
Neighbourhoods will
continue to evolve through
infill development on
underutilized vacant
properties and lands, the
adaptive reuse of existing
buildings, and the
establishment of additional
residential units, as
appropriate.
d. Encouraging co-location
and integration of housing
and public facilities such as,
through intensification,
redevelopment, and in
Designated Greenfield
Areas.
l. Ensure a minimum 5-
year supply of dwelling
units with servicing
capacity to facilitate
residential intensification
and redevelopment, and
land in draft approved and
registered plans.
m. Prioritize its efforts to
encourage and promote
residential, employment,
office, and mixed use
development where the
potential is highest, with
priority granted to areas
with existing infrastructure
capacity.
2.8.2.1 The Town will:
a. Direct growth in
accordance with the
following intensification
hierarchy:
i. Major Transit Station
Areas (MTSAs);
ii. Strategic Growth Areas;
and,
iii. Local Centres and
Corridors
b. Direct growth to areas
that have appropriate
minimum intensification
targets or density
targets;
The City of Vaughan
identified Intensification
Corridors (Regional or
Primary) to recognize
the function they
perform in linking the
Strategic Growth Areas
and accommodating
transit.
2.2.2.15 That Regional
Intensification Corridors
are prioritized for higher
intensity of uses and
short-term growth over
Primary Intensification
Corridors.
2.2.2.17 That
Intensification Corridors
shall be planned to:
a. develop with a mix of
housing types and
tenures, including
housing suitable for
seniors and families
with children and
affordable housing;
b. include a mix of non-
residential uses
including retail, office,
institutional,
redevelopment and land in draft
approved and registered plans.
5.3.1.2 Mississauga will direct
the development of new
housing in a manner that
maximizes the use of
community infrastructure and
public services, while meeting
the housing needs of
Mississauga’s current and
future residents.
5.3.3.9 The City will consult
with school boards, and Federal
and Provincial agencies to:
a. identify surplus government
lands and/or buildings that may
be suitable for affordable and
attainable housing
development;
b. prioritize the sale or lease of
suitable surplus City property
for the development of
affordable and attainable
housing in accordance with the
City’s housing objectives; and
c. identify brownfield and
greyfield sites, including
underutilized commercial sites
suitable for mixed-use
residential intensification and
affordable housing
development.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-20
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
entertainment, shopping, major
community and cultural uses,
major indoor recreational
facilities, high density
residential accommodation, and
as an Anchor Mobility Hub for
integrated transit service
including GO transit, regional
rapid transit and local bus
service;
(d) promote a land use pattern
in urban areas in support of
compact urban form, active
transportation, placemaking,
public transit and energy
conservation;
(e) while maintaining the
character of stable residential
neighbourhoods, increase the
variety and intensity of land
uses and activities in the urban
area, particularly on lands
designated Mixed Use Areas,
and Employment Areas;
3.6 Mixed Use Areas:
City Council:
(a) shall recognize as Mixed
Use Areas on Schedule I, lands
that have or are intended to
have the widest variety of uses
and highest levels of activities
in the City;
(c) in establishing performance
standards, restrictions and
but not limited to, libraries,
community centres,
community hubs, licensed
childcare, fire stations, and
transit stations, including
air-rights development
above Civic Infrastructure,
transit facilities, and
community facilities, where
appropriate.
e. Redeveloping, where
appropriate, industrial and
commercial sites, including
brownfield sites, located
outside of Employment
Areas, in accordance with
the policies of this Plan.
f. Employment
intensification will be
focused on Centres,
Boulevards, and Major
Transit Station Areas
(Schedule 1A) generally
through Major Office
development.
2.1.2.23 The City will
encourage and count
innovative forms of
housing, including
additional residential units,
tiny homes, and modular
housing as contributions to
the intensification target.
existing and/or planned
transit, water, wastewater
and road infrastructure
capacities, and the
provision of suitable
access to local parks,
schools, and other social,
cultural and commercial
services.
c. Identify Designated
Greenfield Areas on
Schedule A – Town
Structure which comprise
lands within the
Community of Stouffville
and the New Urban Areas.
Designated Greenfield
Areas are located outside
of delineated Built-Up
Areas that have been
designated for
development and are
required to accommodate
forecasted growth to the
horizon of this Plan. New
Urban Areas will be
developed in accordance
with the policies of Section
2.5, and other policies as
applicable.
d. Direct development
within the Designated
Greenfield Areas to be
planned to support the
Town’s complete
commercial, community
facilities and human
services intended to
serve both the local
population and the City
as a whole, and attract
activity throughout the
day;
c. develop at transit-
supportive densities;
d. include well designed
public open spaces that
complement the local
context;
e. include development
that creates an active
street wall along the
Corridor and
encourages a
pedestrian-friendly built
form by locating active
uses at grade; and
f. be designed and
developed to implement
appropriate transition of
intensity and use to
surrounding Community
Areas, and/or
separation from
adjacent Employment
Areas.
2.2.2.18 That only
properties with frontage
directly on the street
11.5.5 Intensification and
development on lands within
the regulatory storm flood plain
that poses an unacceptable
risk, will not be permitted prior
to the completion of City
initiated flood studies and the
construction of recommended
mitigation measures, where
necessary.
Identifies which growth nodes
that are planned to
accommodate intensification.
Neighbourhood Character
Areas
14.1.1.5 Neighbourhoods will
not be the focus for major
intensification and should be
regarded as predominantly
residential areas supported by
compatible retail and services
14.1.1.6 Intensification within
Neighbourhoods may be
considered where the proposed
development is compatible in
built form and scale to
surrounding development,
enhances the existing or
planned development and is
consistent with the policies of
this Plan
14.1.2.1 Residential
intensification within
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-21
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
provisions for Mixed Use Areas,
shall have particular regard to
the following:
(i) encouraging development in
an integrated manner for a wide
variety of uses and purposes;
and
(ii) encouraging intensification
over time, up to the maximum
net residential densities and
maximum floorspace indices;
(d) despite Section 3.6(c)(ii)
and Table 6, may limit net
residential densities, floorspace
indices, and gross leasable
floorspace for the retailing of
goods and services below the
maximums set out in the Table:
(i) to address concerns related
to such matters as design,
compatibility and scale of
development; and
(ii) in response to provisions
specified in a Part 3
Neighbourhood Plan (Chapter
12);
(e) despite Section 3.6(c)(ii)
and Table 6, may permit net
residential densities and
floorspace indices below the
minimums set out in the Table,
if it can be demonstrated to the
City’s satisfaction that the
design, site layout, blocking,
and/or phasing of the project
2.1.2.24 The City will
maintain, at all times:
a. The ability to
accommodate residential
growth for a minimum of 15
years through residential
intensification and
redevelopment; and,
b. Land with servicing
capacity sufficient to
provide at least a three-
year supply of residential
units available through
lands suitably zoned to
facilitate intensification.
2.1.2.27 To optimize the
use of land in Brampton, a
significant portion of growth
will be directed to Centres
and Boulevards. Table 2
establishes the minimum
density targets for each
Centre which includes the
City’s Urban Growth Centre
(200 residents and jobs
combined per hectare by
2031).
communities objectives
and policies. This will
include ensuring that
development within the
Designated Greenfield
Area creates high-quality
and compact built form, as
well as public open spaces
with site design and urban
design standards that
support opportunities for
transit, walking and
cycling, among other
matters as described in
this Plan.
e. Identify Built-Up Areas
on Schedule A – Town
Structure which includes
all land within the
delineated built boundary
within the Communities of
Stouffville and Ballantrae.
The Town will direct a
significant portion of its
population and
employment growth
through intensification and
redevelopment within the
Built-Up Areas in the
Community of Stouffville
resulting in the more
efficient use of land and
infrastructure, and the
creation of revitalized and
more vibrant urban areas.
forming a Regional or
Primary Intensification
Corridor shall be
considered appropriate
for intensification. For
clarity, properties that
are rear-lotted against a
Primary Intensification
Corridor, or those that
have frontage on a
window street parallel
to a Primary
Intensification Corridor,
are generally not
considered appropriate
for intensification
2.2.3.4 That gentle
intensification shall be
permitted in Community
Areas as per the land
use designations on
Schedule 13 and in
accordance with the
policies of Chapter 4 of
this Plan. The proposed
development must
meet any applicable
Urban Design
Guidelines or Heritage
Conservation District
Plans and be sensitive
to and compatible with
the character, form, and
planned function of the
Neighbourhoods will generally
occur through infilling.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-22
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
can be intensified over time to
achieve at least the minimum
levels of intensity set out in the
Table;
Table 6: Mixed Use Areas:
Densities ad Floor Areas by
Subcategory
Local Nodes:
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 30 and up to and
including 80
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services: up to and
including 10,000
(c) Max FSI: up to and including
2.0 FSI
Community Nodes:
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 80 and up to and
including 140
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services: up to and
including 20,000
(c) Max FSI: up to and including
2.5 FSI
Mixed Corridors:
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 30 and up to and
including 140
To a lesser extent,
population growth will be
directed to the Community
of Ballantrae as described
in this Plan.
f. Plan to achieve or
exceed the following
minimum intensification
and density targets:
i. A minimum Built-Up
Area annual residential
intensification target of
25%, which equates to
4,200 residential units
from 2016 through to
2051;
ii. A minimum Urban Area
Designated Greenfield
Area density target of 55
people and jobs per
hectare by 2051.
Notwithstanding, the
minimum density target for
the Region will collectively
meet or exceed an overall
minimum density target of
60 people and jobs per
hectare;
iii. A minimum New Urban
Area Designated
Greenfield Area density
target of 65 people and
jobs per hectare;
iv. A minimum density
target of 150 people and
surrounding context.
2.2.3.5 That
development
immediately adjacent to
Community Areas shall
ensure appropriate
transition in scale,
intensity, and use, and
shall mitigate adverse
noise and traffic
impacts, while fulfilling
the intensification
objectives for Strategic
Growth Areas, where
applicable.
2.2.4.13 To encourage
a range of parcel sizes,
street patterns and
building design within
Employment Areas to
maintain the flexibility to
attract a variety of
businesses, and allow
for redevelopment and
intensification.
2.3.1.4 That
development in Urban
Expansion Areas will
not occur until adjacent
Community Areas or
Employment Areas
have achieved their
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-23
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services:
determined by site-specific
zoning
(c) Max FSI : up to and
including 2.5 FSI
Speciality Retailing Node
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 80 and up to and
including 180
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services:
determined by site-specific
zoning
(c) Max FSI: up to and including
2.5 FSI
City Centre:
(a) max & min net residential
density (in dwellings per
hectare): over 80
(b) Max Gross leasable
floorspace for the Retailing of
Goods and Services: up to and
including 300,000
(c) Max FSI: over 0.75 and up
to and including 5.75
6.2 Housing Objectives
City Council shall:
(a) encourage housing
opportunities that respond to
the existing and future needs
jobs per hectare within the
Stouffville GO and Old Elm
GO Major Transit Station
Areas;
v. A minimum Employment
Zone Area density target
of 35 jobs per hectare in
the Stouffville Community
Employment Zone, as
identified in the York
Region Official Plan; and,
vi. An average overall
density target of a
minimum of 55 jobs per
hectare in the Highway
404 Employment Zone, as
identified in the York
Region Official Plan, which
includes the Community of
Gormley employment
areas
g. Support a shift towards
higher-density housing
forms in Built-Up Areas,
through compact built
forms, investment in the
public realm, and mobility
and community amenities
to support higher density,
urban living.
h. Support a more
compact built form and a
mix of uses and densities,
and establish and
implement phasing
minimum intensification
targets or density
targets
3.2.2.2 That an
adequate supply of
housing be maintained
by providing:
a. a minimum 15-year
supply of land
designated for housing
through intensification,
redevelopment, and in
designated greenfield
areas; and
b. minimum 5-year
supply of units with
servicing capacity to
facilitate residential
intensification and
redevelopment, and
land in draft approved
and registered plans.
3.2.2.4 That
intensification may
occur in a variety of
built forms and scales
to diversify housing
types and tenures as
densities increase. The
City will support and
promote a range of
forms of intensification
and opportunities to
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-24
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
and characteristics of the
population;
(b) ensure that a sufficient
supply of designated and
serviceable residential land is
available to meet the existing
and future housing needs of the
City;
(c) encourage the provision of
an adequate range of housing
and tenure types to be available
and integrated within the City’s
neighbourhoods and villages to
meet the needs of existing and
future populations; and
(d) encourage the provision of
an adequate supply of housing
throughout the City in terms of
quantity, quality and diversity,
including the provision of an
adequate supply of affordable,
rental, assisted and special
needs housing.
6.3 City Council shall promote
an adequate supply and mix of
housing by:
(a) maintaining a minimum 10
year supply of residentially
designated lands to meet
anticipated long-term housing
demands;
(b) maintaining a minimum 3
year supply of residential land
in the form of draft approved
policies.
i. Encourage intensification
of existing Employment
Areas and implement
opportunities for infill and
redevelopment in
Employment Areas
provided that the scale
and type of intensification
is consistent with the
planned function of the
area. This includes street
patterns and building siting
and design that will allow
for future redevelopment
and intensification, by
siting buildings in a
manner that considers
potential building
expansion and building
infill opportunities on the
site.
j. Ensure that planning
policies and regulations
are supportive of
intensification initiatives
and the economic
objectives of the Town to
facilitate development
where fiscally sustainable.
k. Promote a built form
and scale of development
within Major Transit
Station Areas and
Strategic Growth Areas
include affordable units
in developments,
including infill of vacant
and underutilized lots,
use of additional
residential units,
adaptive reuse, and the
renovation and
retrofitting of older
residential units.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-25
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
plans and/or registered plans,
to meet anticipated short-term
housing demands;
(c) encouraging the production
of new residential dwelling units
in accordance with housing
targets for average annual
production, unit mix, and
location, as established in
Appendix I - Quality of Life
Indicators and Performance
Targets; and
(d) obtaining the following
distribution of housing forms
throughout the municipality
during the timeframe of this
Plan:
(i) 57 percent single detached
homes;
(ii) 12 percent semi-detached
homes;
(iii) 19 percent attached homes;
and
(iv) 12 percent apartments
6.5 Infill, Intensification, and
Redevelopment:
City Council shall maximize the
efficiency of existing
infrastructure and minimize the
consumption of vacant land by
establishing a target of
approximately 11,500 additional
residential units within the
South Pickering Urban Area by
that further support and
implement the Town’s
intensification hierarchy,
planned transit, water,
wastewater and road
capacity and the provision
of parks, schools, etc.
l. Establish the dwelling
mix and average
household sizes allowed in
any given development at
the time of development
application, supported by a
planning study that
demonstrates how the
proposal contributes to
achieving the Town’s
density targets.
2.10.1.1 The Town will:
c. Use infrastructure
investment and
mechanisms to facilitate
and prioritize
intensification in planned
strategic growth areas.
Improvements to municipal
infrastructure to facilitate
infill and intensification will
be identified and a
coordinated plan will be
prepared.
3.2.1.1
a. Meet current and future
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-26
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
the year 2016, accommodated
by encouraging:
(a) major intensification in
Mixed Use Areas as designated
on Schedule I;
(b) infill development of vacant
or under utilized blocks of land;
(c) in Mixed Use Areas and
Residential Areas,
redevelopment and conversion
of non-residential uses to
residential uses, including the
addition of residential uses in
mixed use forms; and
(d) methods for the provision of
compact housing form, with
regard to housing type,
architectural design and cost-
effective development
standards, where technically
feasible.
*Almost all intensification
activity occurring in Pickering
over the next twenty years will
be on those lands designated
as Mixed Use Areas, not low
density residential areas.
Infilling occurs in low density
areas on vacant or
underutilized parcels of land.
The effect of this will be to
improve the level and range of
services available to most
residents, without changing the
character of their
housing needs through
flexible built form design,
densities, unit sizes,
affordability, and tenure to
provide housing options, in
alignment with the housing
targets in Table 2 (Refer to
Housing Targets row).
b. Plan to achieve the
following housing mix
targets for new housing,
residential intensification
and redevelopment to
provide for greater housing
options:
i. 42% low density
(includes singles and
semi-detached);
ii. 27% medium density
(includes townhouses and
apartments in duplexes);
and,
iii. 32% high density
(includes apartment units).
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-27
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
neighbourhoods.
Infrastructure
7.10 City Council shall:
(a) encourage appropriate
intensification and use of
existing municipal
infrastructure, including roads
and storm sewers;
(b) encourage appropriate
intensification and use of
existing regional infrastructure,
including roads, piped water
and sanitary sewers;
Community Nodes
11.4 City Council:
(a) shall require Community
Nodes to be mixed use nodes
containing commercial and
residential uses that will
intensify over time. The
Community Nodes are located
so that the majority of future
patrons are within a 10 to 20
minute walk of a Community
Node;
(c) despite the policies of Table
6, shall permit a minimum of
10,000 square metres and a
maximum of 20,000 square
metres of gross leasable floor
space for the retailing of goods
and services within the
Community Nodes within the
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-28
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Seaton Urban Area. The
minimum retail space
requirement shall not be
interpreted as requiring the full
minimum floor area at initial
development provided the land
is available to realize the
minimum space requirement;
(d) despite the policies of Table
6, shall permit the Community
Node on Taunton Road to be
larger and contain a broader
range of retail goods including
large format retailers up to a
total maximum gross leasable
floor space of 60,000 square
metres for the retailing of goods
and services subject to the built
form policies set out in Sections
11.7 and 11.8; and
(e) despite the policies of Table
5, shall prohibit the following
uses in Community Nodes:
(i) single-detached and semi-
detached dwelling units; and
(ii) automotive and vehicle
sales.
Mixed Corridors
11.5 City Council shall:
(a) shall require Mixed
Corridors to be developed with
a mix of multiple unit housing
types. Retail uses are permitted
at grade and encouraged at
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-29
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
entrances to the adjacent
residential neighbourhoods;
(b) may permit interim sole
commercial uses, where current
market conditions are not
conducive to high density
residential development,
subject to the policies on
interim uses in Section 11.8. It
is City Council’s intent that
these sole commercial uses
intensify to mixed use
development at or above the
minimum densities as the
Seaton Urban Area matures;
(c) despite the policies of Table
6, shall require the minimum
residential density for Mixed
Corridors within the Seaton
Urban Area to be 40 units per
net hectare and one FSI except
as set out in Section 11.8;
(d) despite the Mixed Corridor
density range, may establish,
through the neighbourhood
plans, a land use subcategory
with a residential density of
over 60 and up to and including
180 units per net hectare,
provided the overall maximum
density for the Mixed Corridors
in Table 6 is not exceeded;
(e) despite the policies of Table
5, shall prohibit single-detached
and semi-detached dwelling
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-30
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
units in Mixed Corridors; and
Mixed Corridor Intensification
Over Time
11.6 City Council:
(a) recognizes that the Mixed
Corridors may not be fully built
out in the first wave of
development;
(b) acknowledges that the
Mixed Corridor lands around
the GO Transit Station and
along the primary transit
corridors are key intensification
areas;
(c) shall require Neighbourhood
Plans to consider and allow for
the potential for more intensive
land use activities and higher
densities to develop over time
as the Seaton Urban Area
matures; and
(d) shall require Neighbourhood
Plans to identify gateway sites
which will be reserved for future
higher density intensification or
if initially developed with interim
uses at lower density, will be
planned or phased so as to not
inhibit future intensification.
Built form and Urban Design of
Mixed Corridors, and
Community Nodes
11.7 City Council shall require a
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-31
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
strong pedestrian focus be
created within the Community
Nodes and Mixed Corridors. To
achieve this focus,
development shall adhere to
the following built form and
urban design principles which
shall be further illustrated in the
Sustainable Placemaking
Guidelines for the Seaton
Urban Area:
(b) Pedestrian Predominant
Streets:
(vi) a minimum height of 2
storeys for sole commercial
buildings shall be encouraged;
(d) Building Heights:
(i) building heights for
residential and mixed use
buildings shall range from 3
storeys to up to 20 storeys at
gateway sites;
(ii) stand-alone commercial
uses shall have a minimum
height generally of 5.0 metres
subject to the policies on
interim uses in Section 11.8;
(iii) buildings taller than 4
storeys shall be designed with a
stepback, at an appropriate
height, for all building facades
that front onto a public or
private road; and
(iv) buildings taller than 4
storeys immediately abutting an
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-32
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
existing or planned Low or
Medium Density residential
designation shall be designed,
where necessary, to create a
transition of heights and
minimize compatibility issues.
Interim Uses within Community
Nodes & Mixed Corridors
11.8 Where sole commercial
uses at lower minimum density
and heights are proposed in the
initial phases of development,
City Council shall require
applicants, for site plan
approval, to submit a
development concept and
intensification plan
demonstrating how the ultimate
density and other objectives for
the site can be achieved. The
intensification plan shall
address and illustrate:
(c) how the property may
accommodate a mix of uses
and how it will intensify over
time including addressing and
illustrating such matters as:
(i) the provision of public roads
and small blocks;
(ii) the siting and orientation of
buildings, which do not
preclude future intensification;
(iii) the ability to achieve both
short-term and longer term
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-33
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
intensification;
(iv) the location of parking for
the initial development and
potential changes to parking to
accommodate the
intensification process; and
(v) the phasing of the
intensification of the site to
realize the ultimate built form;
Higher Intensity Nodes
11.35 City Council shall require
Neighbourhood Plans for
Neighbourhoods 20 and 21 to
identify and protect for higher
intensity employment uses in
the vicinity of the Highway
407/ETR Transitway stations in
the Prestige Employment
designation. These nodes
including the transit stations
shall be considered as long-
term intensification areas, and
City Council shall encourage
increased office development
through intensification of
commuter parking lots over
time and on other sites around
the interchanges..
Delineation of and policies for greenfield areas, including any specified minimum
density targets.
No specific policies related to
greenfield areas/development
identified.
2.1.2.25 Neighbourhoods
within the Designated
Greenfield Area will be
Greenfield Density Target:
Means a minimum density
target for the designated
2.1.1.4 To address the
City’s land-use planning
challenges and to
Greenfield Areas
The Ninth Line Neighbourhood
Character Area is the last
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-34
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
designed to meet or exceed
a minimum density target of
71 persons and jobs per
hectare.
2.1.2.26 The density target
for the Designated
Greenfield Area will be
measured over the entire
Designated Greenfield
Area, excluding
Employment Areas, the
Natural Heritage System
designation, flood plain,
rights-of-way for hydro
corridors, energy
transmission lines,
highways, railways, and
cemeteries.
2.2.7.3 Planning for
Neighbourhoods within the
built-up area and
designated greenfield areas
requires a comprehensive
approach to plan urban
land uses, streets, parks,
infrastructure, community
services and facilities to
support development and
build complete
communities. To implement
this objective, the
development and
redevelopment in
Neighbourhoods will
greenfield area of 50
residents and jobs
combined per hectare at
the Regional scale or a
specific minimum density
target for designated
greenfield area within each
area municipality.
2.5.1.1 The Town will:
a. In consultation with York
Region, prepare
comprehensive Secondary
Plans for New Urban
Areas informed by
subwatershed plans or an
equivalent comprehensive
study, in accordance with
the policies of the York
Region Official Plan.
b. Prepare comprehensive
Secondary Plans, which
shall be:
i. Approved in advance of
new development
proceeding in New Urban
Areas;
ii. Be implemented through
Official Plan Amendments;
and,
iii. Must meet or exceed
the policies of this Official
Plan and the York Region
Official Plan.
c. Consider the approval of
manage future growth,
the primary objectives
of this Plan include:
e. requiring that the
designated greenfield
area be planned to
achieve an average
minimum density by
2051 of 70 combined
residents and jobs per
hectare in the
developable area;
g. ensuring that New
Community Areas are
developed to meet the
growth forecasts set out
in Table 2.1 of this
Plan;
2.2.3.7 That greenfield
lands within Community
Areas shall be
developed to help
achieve the average
minimum density of 70
residents and jobs per
hectare combined as
required in policy
2.1.1.4.e. Where
appropriate, zoning
permissions and plans
of subdivision should
be re-examined to
determine if this target
can be met and new
remaining greenfield area in
Mississauga. The area will be
planned to support transit and
the natural environment to
create a healthy and complete
community. Existing and future
residents will have access to a
well connected and sustainable
natural heritage system, multi-
use trails, parks and open
spaces, higher order transit,
community uses and facilities.
A variety of housing choices
and employment opportunities
to meet their needs will also be
accommodated.
14.13.2.1 The Ninth Line
Neighbourhood Character Area
will be planned to achieve a
minimum density of 87
residents and jobs combined
per hectare, on all lands where
development is permitted.
14.13.2.2 The Ninth Line
Neighbourhood Character Area,
is intended to accommodate a
variety of medium and high
density housing, employment
uses, and an extensive open
space network. The planned
407 Transitway runs through
the area in a north/south
direction. Higher density
development will be focused
around the two Major Transit
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-35
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
provide the following, where
appropriate:
a. Neighbourhood
supportive uses located
within a Neighbourhood
Centre, or in accordance
with Table 6;
b. A grid network of
interconnected streets and
pedestrian routes that
define development blocks;
c. Parks and open spaces,
community facilities,
schools and public
buildings to support existing
and new residents and
workers;
d. Services and facilities
that meet the needs of
residents, workers and
visitors such as small
healthcare facilities, and
local-serving places of
worship and pharmacies;
e. Access to transit,
walking, and cycling and
accessible and comfortable
connections to the
surrounding streets and
open spaces;
f. Uses and building scales
and designs that are
compatible with
surrounding development
and provide an appropriate
Secondary Plans for New
Urban Areas on the basis
of the following:
i. Required regional
infrastructure committed
within the ten-year Capital
Plan and additionally,
water and wastewater
infrastructure shall be
supported by a completed
environmental
assessment;
ii. The Town achieving its
intensification target as a
minimum average over the
last five years;
iii. Alignment with the
required
watershed/subwatershed
plans which have been
completed and approved;
iv. Logical progression of
growth based on the
requirements of this Plan,
provision of local
infrastructure, and
availability of public
service facilities;
v. Development of
complete communities in
accordance with Section 3
– Planning for Complete
Communities;
vi. Consideration of lands
within the New Urban
development should be
in conformity with the
requirements for new
communities in the
York Region Official
Plan.
Section 2.3
Greenfield development
will continue to advance
alongside intensification
efforts, but must take
place in tight
coordination with
infrastructure planning
by the City and by York
Region. For example,
growth in Urban
Expansion Areas
cannot proceed until
the Region has
expanded its water and
wastewater distribution
system to serve those
areas.
2.3.1.3 That greenfield
development:
a. will be supported by
water and wastewater
expansion as require,
by York Region and the
City;
b. will be guided by new
Secondary Plans or
Station Areas located at
Britannia Road West and Derry
Road West.
No policies identified for urban
expansion areas or new
community areas.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-36
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
transition to existing
Neighbourhoods in
accordance with the Urban
Design policies and Table 4
of this Plan;
g. Development that
promotes a compact built
form and opportunities for
intensification; and,
h. A housing mix that
contributes to the full range
of housing options along
the housing continuum for
all age groups, life stages,
incomes, and abilities.
Areas focused on
Woodbine Avenue/Warden
Avenue for employment
area uses;
vii. Consideration of lands
within the New Urban
Areas abutting McCowan
Road, south of Stouffville
Road as a focus for
accommodating regional
serving retail uses;
viii. Approval of a
subsequent phase must
be consistent with
approved Secondary
Plans at the discretion of
the Town, and shall be
considered at such time as
the current phase
contributes towards the
development of a
complete community by;
1. incorporating an
adequate provision of
community services such
as libraries and schools;
2. providing an appropriate
balance of jobs; and
3. containing a mix and
range of housing types,
sizes, tenures and
affordable options that
include but are not limited
to, high density
development along
updates to existing
Secondary Plans; and
c. will proceed in a
phased manner
alongside development
of infrastructure and
provision of services to
enable complete
communities.
2.3.1.4 That
development in Urban
Expansion Areas will
not occur until adjacent
Community Areas or
Employment Areas
have achieved their
minimum intensification
targets or density
targets.
2.3.1.5 That the
provision of municipal
servicing to greenfield
Employment Areas will
proceed prior to or in
parallel with servicing to
New Community Areas.
3.2.2 Housing Type and
Tenure
3.2.2.2 That an
adequate supply of
housing be maintained
by providing:
a. a minimum 15-year
supply of land
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-37
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
corridors with accessibility
to transit.
ix. Sufficient parkland and
recreational opportunities
to meet the Town's
targets; and,
x. Coordination with
adjacent municipalities
where Regional and/or
Town infrastructure is
shared, if required
d. Prepare and implement
comprehensive Master
Environmental Servicing
Plans that examine all
municipal servicing
requirements,
transportation systems,
water and natural systems
in a comprehensive and
integrated manner, in
accordance with the
provisions of the York
Region Official Plan.
e. Ensure New Urban
Areas meet or exceed a
minimum density of 65
residents and jobs per
hectare and 18 residential
units per hectare in the
developable area.
f. Ensure New Urban
Areas contain community
core areas, planned as
vibrant, mixed use,
designated for housing
through intensification,
redevelopment, and in
designated greenfield
areas; and
b. minimum 5-year
supply of units with
servicing capacity to
facilitate residential
intensification and
redevelopment, and
land in draft approved
and registered plans.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-38
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
walkable neighbourhoods,
that include:
i. Mixed use, integrated
commercial, and higher
density residential uses;
ii. Adaptable human
service amenities as local
community anchors;
iii. Diverse local retail,
grocery and personal
services;
iv. Connections to active
transportation networks
and transit for all ages and
abilities, to amenities
within, and beyond the
core area(s);
v. Public spaces and
greenspaces including
parks and open spaces;
vi. Employment
opportunities; and,
vii. Elements that promote
a sense of place within the
community
n. Direct that within New
Urban Areas, until such
time as the Secondary
Plans are approved,
normal farm practices and
a full range of agricultural
uses, agriculture-related
uses and on-farm
diversified uses shall be
permitted and encouraged,
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-39
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
where appropriate, and
continue to be protected
from non-agricultural uses
until such time as these
lands are required for
urban development.
o. Require that Secondary
Plans for New Urban
Areas shall address the
interface between urban
and agricultural land uses
in order to mitigate any
potential impacts to
agricultural operations to
the extent feasible,
through future planning
approvals.
p. Ensure that the
approval of Secondary
Plans and/or development
within strategic growth
areas shall be contingent
on the availability of
existing or planned
infrastructure and other
services and be consistent
with the Regional and
Town intensification
hierarchy, as outlined in
Section 2.8.
q. Implement the
directions of York Region’s
New Community
Guidelines in planning for
New Urban Areas.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-40
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
(Also included in
Intensification Topic)
2.8.2.1 f. Plan to achieve
or exceed the following
minimum intensification
and density targets
ii. A minimum Urban Area
Designated Greenfield
Area density target of 55
people and jobs per
hectare by 2051.
Notwithstanding, the
minimum density target for
the Region will collectively
meet or exceed an overall
minimum density target of
60 people and jobs per
hectare;
iii. A minimum New Urban
Area Designated
Greenfield Area density
target of 65 people and
jobs per hectare;
m. Measure greenfield
density targets over the
Town’s Designated
Greenfield Area, excluding
the following:
i. Environmental features
and areas, natural heritage
systems, flood plains, key
natural heritage features
and key hydrologic
features, where
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-41
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
development is prohibited
in these areas;
ii. Rights-of-way for:
1. Utility lines;
2. Major infrastructure
including existing 400-
series highways and future
400-series highways;
3. Railways;
4. Existing uses including
cemeteries and estate
subdivisions;
n. Work with the Region to
monitor and report
regularly on the pattern
and amount of residential
and employment
development and density
occurring within the
Designated Greenfield
Area, Built-Up Area, Major
Transit Station Areas, and
Employment Zones.
2.8.3.1 e. Implement
phasing policies that
require the servicing of
greenfield employment
lands prior to, or in parallel
with, the servicing and
development of New
Urban Areas.
Establishment of hierarchy of Strategic Growth Areas, policies for level of growth for
each type of SGA, including density targets.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-42
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
No Strategic Growth Areas or
policies identified.
However, within Mixed Use
Areas Table 6 (see General
Intensification theme) includes
(1) maximum and minimum net
residential density, (2)
maximum gross leasable
floorspace for retailing of goods
and services, and (3) maximum
floorspace index for each Mixed
Use Area subcategory (Local
Nodes, Community Nodes,
Mixed Corridors, Speciality
Retailing Node, City Centre).
Chapter 12 also identifies the
21 Urban Neighbourhoods
which identifies specific
maximum and minimum net
residential densities, despite
Table 6, for some of the
neighbourhoods.
Additionally, within Urban
Residential Areas Table 9,
maximum and minimum net
residential densities are
identified for the Low Density
Area, Medium Density Area,
High Density Area.
Strategic Growth Areas
include urban growth
centres, major transit
station areas, and other
major opportunities that
may include infill,
redevelopment, brownfield
sites, the expansion or
conversion of existing
buildings, or greyfields.
Lands along major roads,
arterials, or other areas with
existing or planned frequent
transit service or higher
order transit corridors may
also be identified as
Strategic Growth Areas.
Strategic Growth Areas will
be the main locations for
the Mixed-Use designation.
2.1.1.1 The City Structure
will create complete
communities across
Brampton grounded in the
four pillars of sustainability
(environmental, social,
economic, and cultural
sustainability). By
integrating these pillars,
Brampton Plan will create a
vibrant and sustainable
natural and built
environment, a thriving
Strategic Growth Areas
are conceptually shown on
Schedule A: Town
Structure. It is not a
defined boundary.
Local Centres and
Corridors - primary
locations for
concentrations of higher
density and mixed use
development in the Town,
which include:
a. Western Approach
Mixed Use Area: The
purpose of the Western
Approach Mixed Use Area
is to create a diverse,
thriving commercial district
in this area that is
combined with
employment, institutional,
cultural, entertainment and
higher density residential
uses
- FSI: generally 1.5 should
be achieved.
b. Gateway Mixed Use
Area: The Gateway Mixed
Use Area recognizes the
prominence of the
intersection of Highway 48
and Main Street as the
most significant entrance
Strategic Growth Areas
are intended to
accommodate 58% of
all growth forecast for
the City of Vaughan to
achieve the established
intensification target.
They consist of a
hierarchy of mixed-use
centres and corridors
2.2.1.1 Hierarchy of
Strategic Growth Areas
in descending order of
density and intensity of
use, as follows:
Vaughan Metropolitan
Centre (VMC):
Downtown, and the
location of the City’s
highest rate of
intensification for a
wide range of
residential, office, retail,
institutional, cultural
and civic uses;
Primary Centres:
locations of
intensification
accommodated in the
form of predominantly
mixed-use high- and
mid-rise buildings,
developed at an
intensity supportive of
Strategic Growth Areas:
Urban Growth Centre: includes
the Downtown Core, Fairview,
Cooksville and Hospital
Character Areas. The
Downtown Core Character Area
will contain the highest
densities, tallest buildings and
greatest mix of uses. The
Fairview, Cooksville and
Hospital Character Areas will
provide for a diverse mix of
uses, but with lesser densities
and heights than the Downtown
Core.
Major Transit Station Areas:
accommodate future growth
with transit supportive
development reflective of their
local context. Major Transit
Station Areas are an overlay
and their boundaries may
include one or more City
Structure elements and
Character Areas. They
incorporate sites in proximity to
existing or planned higher order
transit stations or stops within
the City of Mississauga.
Major Nodes: will generally
provide for a mix of population
and employment uses at
densities and heights less than
the Urban Growth Centre, but
greater than elsewhere in the
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-43
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
local economy, and a more
socially cohesive and
equitable city through the
integration and coordination
of the City-Wide Growth
Management Framework
and Mobility Framework by:
e. Directing the majority of
growth to Strategic Growth
Areas of the city, including
Urban and Town Centres,
Primary and Secondary
Urban Boulevards, and
Major Transit Station Areas,
as identified on Schedule
1A to support sustainable
city-building and to prioritize
investments in regional and
city infrastructure including
water, sewage, transit,
community and emergency
facilities, and commercial
amenities. This will lead to
the efficient use of land,
infrastructure, and services.
2.1.2.10 Most growth will
occur within the Built-Up
Area (Schedule 5) in
Strategic Growth Areas of
the city, with a majority of
residential growth being
through intensification,
increasing over time during
the planning horizon.
into the Community of
Stouffville as a unique
district with potential for
mixed use development
fronting on Main
Street/Stouffville Road
- min FSI: 2.5
c. Highway 48 Mixed Use
Corridor: The purpose of
the Highway 48 Mixed Use
Corridor is to promote mid-
to high-rise forms of
development, with
predominately non-
residential uses located on
the ground floor and
residential uses located on
upper floors that frame
and define the street. The
Highway 48 Mixed Use
Corridor is also intended to
accommodate major
regional serving retail and
commercial uses within a
mixed use setting. This
area is intended to have a
more fine-grained scale of
streets and blocks and
thus the potential to
become a more compact
built form and walkable
neighbourhood
- FSI: generally 2.5 should
be achieved for mid-rise
transit;
Protected Major Transit
Station Areas
(PMTSAs): centres of
compact, transit-
supportive, mixed-use
communities
throughout the City
Regional Intensification
Corridors: major focus
for intensification on the
lands adjacent to major
transit routes, at
densities and in a form
supportive of the
adjacent higher order
transit. The Regional
Intensification Corridors
link the VMC with other
Strategic Growth Areas
in Vaughan and across
York Region, as well as
major centres in Peel
Region and the City of
Toronto
Local Centres: mixed-
use focus for their
respective
communities, in a
manner that supports
local needs at a
walkable,
neighbourhood scale
with appropriate
transition of
city. Major Nodes include the
Central Erin Mills, Lakeview
Waterfront and Uptown
Character Areas.
Community Nodes will provide
for a similar mix of uses as in
Major Nodes, but with lower
densities and heights.
3.2.4 Most of Mississauga’s
future growth will be directed to
Strategic Growth Areas, which
are the Urban Growth Centre,
Major Nodes, Community
Nodes, and Major Transit
Station Areas.
3.2.5 In directing growth,
Mississauga will:
a. ensure that the City’s natural,
environmental, and cultural
resources are maintained for
present and future generations.
b. ensure that development is
mixed use, compact, and transit
and active transportation
supportive, in appropriate
locations, to provide a range of
local live/work opportunities.
c. permit a range of housing
options within low-rise
residential Neighbourhoods.
d. protect employment lands to
allow for a diversity of
employment uses.
3.2.9 The City will collaborate
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-44
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
and high-rise residential
dwelling units and mixed
use development
intensification to
surrounding
communities;
Primary Intensification
Corridors: link together
the various centres on
transit supportive
corridors and will be
places to accommodate
intensification in the
form of mixed-use mid-
rise, and limited mixed-
use high-rise and low-
rise buildings
2.3.1.2 That
notwithstanding the
hierarchy described in
policy 2.2.1.1 of this
Plan, development is
encouraged to occur
first in those Strategic
Growth Areas meeting
the following criteria:
a. are currently served
by public transit, in the
following order:
i. subway;
ii. bus rapid transit;
iii. GO train;
iv. bus;
b. have existing access
to high-quality parks
and open space;
c. have sufficient
with infrastructure providers to
develop and maintain
infrastructure plans and
establish phasing priorities that
support sustainable growth
within Strategic Growth Areas
Figure 3.2 - A summary of
height and density
requirements for the City
Structure elements. *Also
included within Allocation of
Growth within Urban Areas
Section*
Urban Growth Centre
(Downtown Core) - Planned
Density: 400+, Overview of
Planned Built Form: Greatest
heights and densities in the city
– no maximums specified
Urban Growth Centre (Fairview,
Cooksville, Hospital) - Planned
Density: 300+, Overview of
Planned Built Form: Generally
tall buildings with a variation in
height
Major Nodes - Planned Density:
250+, Overview of Planned
Built Form: Generally mid-rise
and tall buildings, with some
transitional low-rise buildings
Community Nodes (Malton,
Meadowvale, Rathwood-
Applewood Sheridan and South
Common) - Planned Density:
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-45
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
drinking water and
wastewater service to
immediately
accommodate the
planned intensification
rate for the area, or
have planned drinking
water and wastewater
service to
accommodate the
planned growth by the
completion of
development and in
areas where this is not
in place, ensuring
appropriate services
must be addressed by
applicants to the
satisfaction of the City;
d. are currently served
by publicly funded
elementary and
secondary schools with
capacity to
accommodate the
planned growth for the
area;
e. have existing and
diverse retail services
which can be retained
or replaced within the
Strategic Growth Area;
and
f. are in close proximity
to existing or planned
150-250, Overview of Planned
Built Form: A mixture of low-
rise, mid-rise and tall buildings)
Community Nodes (Clarkson
Village, Dixie Dundas, Port
Credit and Streetsville) -
Planned Density: 100-200+,
Overview of Planned Built
Form: A mixture of low-rise,
mid-rise and tall buildings but
variation depending on
Character Area policies
12.1.1.3 The Urban Growth
Centre will be planned to:
a. reflect its role in the City
Structure hierarchy;
b. accommodate significant
population and employment
growth and support
opportunities for residents to
work in Mississauga;
c. develop as a major regional
centre, be the primary location
for mixed use
development and contain the
greatest concentration of
activities and variety of uses in
the city;
d. accommodate a balance of
housing, retail, office, services
and community infrastructure in
close proximity with each other;
e. attract considerable
employment, including major
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-46
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
community services,
such as libraries,
community centres, or
hospitals.
3.3.2.9 That in Strategic
Growth Areas, new
development will be
designed to:
a. provide a compact
built form that supports
any intensification
target applicable to the
Strategic Growth Area;
b. support balanced
density to achieve
complete communities;
c. have buildings front
onto a public street with
generally consistent
setbacks and built form
along sidewalks;
d. locate main building
entrances so that they
are clearly visible and
directly accessible from
the public sidewalk;
e. provide active
ground floor uses and
grade-related amenity
spaces, and avoid
blank facades;
f. mass new buildings
to frame adjacent
streets, parks, open
offices;
f. achieve a high quality built
form and urban environment;
g. be a focal area for
investment in public service
facilities, community
infrastructure, as well as
institutional, commercial,
recreational, educational, arts,
cultural and entertainment
uses;
h. support a range of
transportation options, including
higher order transit and a safe
and convenient active
transportation network;
i. encourage arts and cultural
uses and the locations of public
art;
j. maximize the use of existing
and planned infrastructure; and,
k. adapt to the impacts of
climate change, improve
resilience, reduce greenhouse
gas emissions, and contribute
to environmental sustainability
12.1.1.4 The Urban Growth
Centre will achieve a minimum
gross density of residents and
jobs combined per hectare as
specified for each Protected
Major Transit Station Area.
12.1.1.5 Development
applications within the Urban
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-47
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
spaces, and natural
heritage features in a
way that provides for a
pedestrian-scaled
environment;
g. create appropriate
transitions in scale to
areas of lower density
while fulfilling the
intensification
objections for the
Strategic Growth Areas;
and
h. contribute to an
interesting and
attractive skyline
through architectural
treatment and roof
design.
Growth Centre proposing a
change to the designated land
use, which results in a
significant reduction in the
number of jobs that could be
accommodated on the site, will
not be permitted unless
considered
through an official plan review
or update.
12.1.1.7 Development in the
Urban Growth Centre will
support the achievement of
healthy sustainable complete
communities that:
a. provide a wide-range of
uses, including residential,
community infrastructure,
employment, services,
commercial uses, entertainment
uses, and offices, according to
the permitted land uses in the
policies of the Plan;
b. supply a diverse range and
mix of housing options, unit
types and sizes, including
affordable housing, to
accommodate the needs of a
diverse population, including
people with disabilities, older
adults, and families;
c. deliver a compact built form
and density that allow people to
meet many of their needs
locally and within walking
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-48
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
distance, achieves a high
quality urban environment,
create a vibrant public realm,
and support transit ridership;
d. provide active transportation
connections to the Light Rail
Transit (LRT) line, transit
routes/stops, trails, parks, open
spaces and surrounding
neighbourhoods;
12.1.1.8 Residential and/or
employment density and mix of
uses will be sufficiently high to
support transit usage,
according to the permitted land
uses in the policies of the Plan.
Low density development will
be discouraged.
12.1.1.9 The Urban Growth
Centre will be serviced and
supported by local and higher
order transit facilities that
provide connections to all parts
of the city and to neighbouring
municipalities.
12.1.1.11 Development will be
phased in accordance with the
provision of community
infrastructure and necessary
infrastructure servicing to
support growth.
12.1.3.2 Lands within the Urban
Growth Centre that are
designated Residential Mid-
Rise will permit buildings up to
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-49
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
12 storeys, unless otherwise
specified in Schedule 8: Major
Transit Station Area. Mid-rise
buildings will be designed in
accordance with the applicable
policies of this Plan.
Delineation of Protected Major Transit station areas and accompanying policies,
including minimum density targets.
No Major Transit Station Area's
or policies identified.
14 MTSA's (Kennedy
MTSA, Centre St. MTSA,
Rutherford MTSA, Central
Park (Bramalea Terminal)
MTSA, Bramalea MTSA,
Bramalea GO MTSA **,
Brampton GO MTSA,
Mount Pleasant MTSA,
Laurelcrest MTSA, Dixie
MTSA, The Gore MTSA,
Ray Lawson County Court
MTSA, Gateway Terminal
MTSA, Steeles at
Mississauga MTSA
Table 3: Primary Major
Transit Station Areas in
Brampton
Bramalea GO: Minimum
Density Target - 150
a) The maximum building
heights identified in Table 4
– Building Typologies of
this Plan do not apply to
any lands within a Primary
2.2.2.1 The majority of
forecasted population
growth and population–
related employment
growth will be directed to
the Community of
Stouffville through
intensification and directed
to the Major Transit
Station Areas (MTSAs).
2.2.2.4 MTSAs are those
locations where
Inclusionary Zoning maybe
be leveraged to help
the Town achieve its
affordable housing goals.
MTSAs are intended to
achieve the following:
a. Transit-supportive
solutions which are
promoted and designed to
achieve multimodal access
to the GO stations through
the provision of bus transit
connections, active
Table 2.2.
Includes a table of all
MTSA's with the
following columns:
gross area of MTSA,
minimum density target
(ppj/ha), minimum
combined population
and jobs per MTSA,
gross minimum FSI for
MTSA
3.2.1.1 To work with
York Region in
implementing its
affordable housing
policies and targets as
follows:
a. requiring that a
minimum of 25% of all
new housing units in
Vaughan outside of the
VMC and PMTSAs be
affordable;
b. requiring that a
minimum of 35% of
11.2.5 Development in the
Major Transit Station Areas will
support the following objectives:
a. leverage infrastructure
investments by planning for
transit-supportive densities and
increased transit ridership
within Major Transit Station
Areas;
b. encourage a balanced mix of
transit-supportive uses such as
residential, retail, offices, open
space, and public uses that
supports the needs of
employees and residents in a
walkable environment;
c. develop and enhance active
transportation connections and
infrastructure (including
sidewalks and multi-use paths)
to transit stations and stops;
and
d. support a mix of multi-unit
housing, including affordable
housing, rental housing and
additional residential units, as
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-50
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Major Transit Station Area.
Table 4: Building
Typologies
Low-Rise: up to and
including 3 full storeys
Low-Rise Plus: up to and
including 4 full storeys
Mid-Rise: between 5 and
12 full storeys
High-Rise: 13 full storeys or
greater
a) The minimum density
requirement (Floor Space
Index) for the land use
designations within Primary
Major Transit Station Areas
are shown in Table A.
Table A: Land Uses
Neighbourhoods (Low Rise,
Low Rise Plus)- Min FSI:
0.25
Neighbourhoods (Mid
Rise)- Min FSI: 0.50
Neighbourhoods (High
Rise)- Min FSI: 2.50
Mixed-Use (Downtown
Mixed-Use)- Min FSI: 0.50
Mixed-Use (Low Rise, Low-
Rise Plus)- Min FSI: 0.25
Mixed-Use (Mid Rise)- Min
FSI:0.50
Mixed-Use (High Rise)- Min
FSI: 2.50
Employment (Industrial,
transportation
connections, and
pedestrian-friendly design
considerations.
b. A diverse mix of uses
along with a variety of
housing options, including
affordable housing.
c. At least 35% of the
housing units developed in
a MTSA will satisfy the
criteria for the provision of
affordable housing.
d. MTSAs provide
opportunities for focused
intensification and higher
density residential,
commercial, office and
employment uses that will
contribute to the viability of
transit services, and the
creation of complete
communities.
2.8.2.1 f. Plan to achieve
or exceed the following
minimum intensification
and density targets
iv. A minimum density
target of 150 people and
jobs per hectare within the
Stouffville GO and Old Elm
GO Major Transit Station
Areas;
new residential units in
the VMC and PMTSAs
be affordable;
3.2.1.2 That the City, in
collaboration with York
Region, will develop
and implement
inclusionary zoning in
PMTSAs to increase
the supply of affordable
housing through an
amendment to this
Plan.
Transit Oriented
Development
3.9.3.5 That the highest
intensity uses be
planned so that they
are directed to areas
served by higher order
transit, including
subway stations and
Viva bus rapid transit
corridors, in
accordance with
Chapter 2 of this Plan
and the York Region
Official Plan, which set
out the appropriate
development hierarchy.
Higher order transit
investments that serve
Strategic Growth Areas
and PMTSAs should be
appropriate
11.2.6 Where a City-initiated
comprehensive planning study
is required for a Protected
Major Transit Station Area, the
study will set out, among other
matters, policies to support:
a. the minimum density target
calculated as the combined
residents and jobs per hectare
for the Protected Major Transit
Station Area as established by
the policies in this Plan;
b. an appropriate mix of land
uses and amenities that foster
vibrant, transit-supportive
neighbourhoods;
c. development to
accommodate growth, including
building heights policies, that
respects the character and
scale of the surrounding
community;
d. improved access and
connectivity to transit stations
and stops;
e. an interconnected and multi-
modal street network that
encourages walking, cycling
and the use of transit
f. high quality public realm
improvements;
g. land use compatibility and
the separation or mitigation of
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-51
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Prestige Industrial)- Min
FSI: 0.25
Mixed-Use Employment
(Office Mixed-Use)- Min FSI
2.50 (does not apply to new
or expanded industrial
uses)
2.1.2.2 The tallest buildings
will be directed to Urban
Centres. Within Boulevards
and within Major Transit
Station Areas, taller
buildings may be permitted,
subject to the applicable
built form, design, and
implementation policies of
this Plan.
2.1.2.3 A mix of transit-
supportive uses will be
provided along Corridors
within the Neighbourhoods
designation, with higher
densities permitted within
Major Transit Station Areas
to promote transit ridership
subject to the policies of
this Plan.
2.2.4.1 Boulevards will be
transformed incrementally
over this Plan’s planning
horizon and will vary in
terms of intensity, form, and
scale depending on the
3.2.1.1
h. Enable and review the
feasibility of implementing
Inclusionary Zoning within
the Major Transit Station
Areas, including the
Stouffville GO Station and
the Old Elm GO Station
Major Transit Station
Areas.
p. Achieve a minimum
target of 25% affordable
housing units for new
residential development
outside of a Major Transit
Station Areas; and a
minimum target of 35%
affordable housing units
for new residential
development within a
Major Transit Station Area.
6.4.10.3 Development in
the Old Elm – High-
Density Mixed Use Area
designation will conform
with the following policies:
h. Development will be
planned to achieve a net
density of at least 200
units per net hectare, up to
approximately 520 units
per net hectare (about 175
to 450 units per gross
hectare). It is the intent of
prioritized to meet the
mobility needs of these
high-intensity growth
areas.
3.9.3.7 To direct major
trip-generators,
institutional uses and
generally intensive land
uses to Strategic
Growth Areas,
particularly PMTSAs, to
promote increased
transit mobility for all
residents and
particularly those that
are dependent on
transit
Local and Regional
Transit
3.9.3.21 To maximize
utilization of GO rail
corridors by:
a. directing higher
density growth to areas
surrounding GO
stations, specifically
PMTSAs to achieve a
minimum of 150
persons and jobs per
hectare;
b. requiring mixed-use
development in areas
surrounding new GO
stations;
impacts on sensitive land uses;
h. protection of lands that may
be required for future
enhancement or expansion of
transit infrastructure;
i. protection and mitigation
against natural and human-
made hazards; and
j. infrastructure and services
delivery in a manner that
supports complete
communities, including open
space, public amenities, and
active transportation, through a
phasing plan or strategy.
11.2.7 Inclusionary zoning will
apply to specific Protected
Major Transit Station Areas to
increase housing affordability.
11.2.8 Partnerships will be
explored with non-profit housing
organizations to provide
housing with deeper
affordability to lower income
households.
11.2.9 The City will foster
collaboration between public
and private sectors to support
development within all Major
Transit Station Areas, such as
joint development projects.
Land Uses
11.3.1 The authorized uses of
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-52
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
level of transit investment.
To achieve this,
development in Boulevards
will:
a. Cultivate Sustainable
Urban Places. Boulevards
will be urban places where
people live, work, and play
and respond to Major
Transit Station Areas and
transit investment along the
corridor. Buildings will fit
into their existing or
planned context, adhere
closely to the street,
creating a continuous
cluster of activity.
b. Support Transit Viability.
Appropriate development
densities and form
Boulevards within Major
Transit Station Areas will
create the critical mass
essential to make local
transit systems viable.
2.2.4.12 When a Planned
Major Transit Station Area
is amended to a Primary or
Secondary Major Transit
Station Area by way of an
amendment to the Region
of Peel Official Plan, the
Mixed-Use designation will
then be applied to those
this designation to
significantly exceed the
overall planned minimum
gross density target of 150
people and jobs per
hectare for the Major
Transit Station Area
6.4.11.2 Development in
the Old Elm Medium-High
Density Mixed Use Area
designation will conform
with the following policies:
d. Development will be
planned to achieve a net
density of at least 80 units
per net hectare, up to
approximately 450 units
per net hectare (about 70
to 400 units per gross
hectare). It is the intent of
this designation to at least
meet, and preferably
exceed, the planned
minimum density target of
150 people and jobs per
hectare for the Major
Transit Station Area
6.4.12.2 Development in
the Old Elm Medium-High
Density Residential Area
designation will conform
with the following policies:
c. Development will be
c. encouraging
redevelopment of GO
station parking lots with
mixed-use
development; and
d. minimizing the
footprint of commuter
parking by supporting
shared parking, parking
structures, bicycle
parking and facilities,
and effective transit and
active transportation
connections to GO
stations.
land are as identified by the
land use designations shown
on Schedule 8: Protected Major
Transit Station Areas (including
Schedules 8a to 8r), and
referenced in Table 11-1:
Protected Major Transit Station
Areas. The associated land use
permissions and authorized
uses of buildings or structures
are as per the Land Use
Designation policies of this
Plan, and applicable Local Area
Plans, City Structure and
Character Areas policies.
11.3.2 Redevelopment within
Mixed Use, Mixed Use Limited,
and Downtown Mixed Use
designated lands that results in
a loss of non-residential floor
space, will not be permitted
unless it can be demonstrated
that the planned function of the
non-residential component will
be maintained or replaced as
part of the redevelopment.
11.3.3 Maintaining the non-
residential planned function
means providing:
a. a concentration of
convenient, easily accessible
office, retail and service
commercial uses that meet the
needs of local residents and
employees; and
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-53
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
portions outside of an
Employment Area by way
of an amendment to this
Plan.
2.2.4.13 New Primary Major
Transit Station Areas may
only be identified through a
Region of Peel Official Plan
Amendment process
completed by the Region of
Peel. A new Mixed-Use
designation may only then
be applied by way of an
amendment to this Plan.
2.2.4.15 The City will work
with senior levels of
government to review the
status of transit
infrastructure and evaluate
land use changes in order
to reclassify Planned Major
Transit Station Areas
identified on Schedule 1 to
be Primary or Secondary
Major Transit Station Areas,
in accordance with the
Region of Peel Official
Plan.
2.2.4.16 The status of
transit infrastructure
identified on Table 3 shall
be considered when
planned to achieve a net
density of at least 55 units
per net hectare, up to
approximately 450 units
per net hectare (about 45
to 400 units per gross
hectare). It is the intent of
this designation to
generally meet the
planned minimum density
target of 150 people and
jobs per hectare for the
Major Transit Station Area,
recognizing that there may
be variation between each
individual development
application.
7.3.5.1 h. Consider
Inclusionary Zoning
through zoning by-laws in
all Major Transit Station
Areas and Community
Planning Permit System
areas that may address
the following:
i. Minimum unit number
thresholds for affordable
housing units;
ii. Minimum percentage of
gross floor area dedicated
toward affordable housing;
iii. Rental rates or sale
prices of units to ensure
they are no greater than
b. employment opportunities,
such as office, recreation, and
institutional jobs.
11.3.4 Development will
contribute towards the creation
of transit-supportive
communities by:
a. including a broad and
balanced mix of land uses, with
a range of residential and non-
residential uses;
b. providing housing choices to
facilitate affordable housing
options with a mix of tenure,
affordable rental and ownership
options for lower and middle
income households;
c. including a range of
employment uses to achieve a
well balanced mix of office and
retail uses;
d. recognizing that some
Protected Major Transit Station
Areas will have limited
opportunities to accommodate
a mix of uses and varying
building forms due to the
existing and planned context;
e. being subject to required
land use compatibility
assessments as identified by
the City;
f. protecting and mitigating
against natural hazards
including flood risk;
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-54
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
planning for the staging and
sequencing of growth and
development in delineated
Major Transit Station Areas.
2.2.4.17 Lands within
Primary Major Transit
Station Areas will be
developed in
accordance with land use
designations shown on
Schedules 13A-13N
to generally meet the
following objectives:
b. Support an appropriate
mix of transit-supportive
uses and densities and a
compact urban form that
contribute to the
development of healthy and
sustainable complete
communities;
c. Concentrate the highest
intensity within close
proximity to the transit
station or stop and
transition to a lower
intensity built form for
properties that do not have
frontage along existing or
planned high order transit
corridors;
d. Provide appropriate
transitions in height and
density to adjacent
what is affordable to
moderate income
households as defined by
York Region;
iv. Provision of 2 and 3+
bedroom units as the
predominant unit type;
v. Exemption or reduction
of the Inclusionary Zoning
requirements for purpose
built rental developments
or residential
developments which are
sold or rented at rates
below the moderate
affordability threshold;
vi. Priority for the provision
of on-site affordable units;
vii. Reduction of
Inclusionary Zoning
requirements for
developments proposing
units at rates below the
affordability threshold for
moderate income
households; and,
viii. Phasing when
implementing Inclusionary
Zoning where appropriate
based on market and other
local conditions.
g. identifying, protecting,
restoring, and enhancing the
Natural Heritage System and
the Water Resource System,
and promoting the
establishment of natural
linkages; and
h. providing high quality and
pedestrian friendly public realm
improvements to enhance
connections to transit stations.
Table 11-1: Density per Major
Transit Station Areas
Compatibility
11.6.1 Development will:
a. be compatible with
surrounding uses;
b. mitigate impacts to and not
interfere with existing or future
operations of adjacent uses in
General Employment Areas;
and
c. employ appropriate mitigation
and compatibility measures as
identified and secured through
the development application
process.
11.6.2 Sensitive land uses,
including residential uses,
proposed outside of and
adjacent to or near to General
Employment Areas, lands
designated Industrial or
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-55
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
established low density
residential areas, provided
planning outcomes are
achieved for MTSA areas,
including density targets;
e. Provide an active
transportation network
throughout, including
multimodal access to
stations and connections to
nearby major trip
generators;
f. Provide a range and mix
of housing options, unit
sizes and tenure, including
affordable housing, to
attract a broad range of
demographics and to meet
local needs;
g. Provide a variety of
institutional, employment
and commercial
opportunities;
h. Provide a diverse,
equitable and inclusive set
of public uses in locations
that provide convenient
access to all residents and
employees;
i. Provide active ground
floor related uses and
active street frontages;
j. Provide an adequate
amount of public or private
park and open spaces that
Business Employment, or within
the influence area of major
employment facilities will need
to demonstrate, to the
satisfaction of the City, that:
a. the use is appropriate in
accordance with the policies of
this Plan and subject to land
use compatibility assessments,
which may require a third party
peer review to be conducted on
behalf of the City at the
applicant's expense;
b. the recommended mitigation
measures will contribute to an
appropriate living environment
and not pose a financial burden
to future residents;
c. the use would not adversely
affect the overall viability of
employment lands and facilities;
and.
d. the onus for mitigation will be
on developers proposing new
residential and/or other
sensitive uses.
Urban Design
11.7.1 In addition to the Urban
Form policies in Chapter 8 of
this Plan, additional policies,
built form standards and
guidelines may be developed,
and determined through future
planning studies and Local
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-56
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
integrate with and enhance
the existing city-wide parks
and open space system;
k. Preserve the natural
heritage system, and
appropriately integrate
cultural heritage resources;
l. Support high quality
public realm improvements;
m. Provide a strategic
approach to parking
management that will
prioritize and incentivize
transit use and active
transportation, as well as
optimize parking utilization
through measures
including, but not limited to,
shared parking;
n. Stage development to
ensure that the appropriate
infrastructure services and
amenities are delivered in a
manner that supports the
development of complete
communities; and,
o. Contribute to building
resilient, low-carbon, and
green communities.
Area Plan reviews
11.7.2 Development will:
a. minimize surface parking;
b. ensure that where structured
parking is proposed, other uses
such as residential and non-
residential are incorporated,
along the periphery of the
structure at ground level; and
c. contribute to the creation of a
high standard of public and
private realm streetscape
design that is coordinated and
comprehensive, which may
include street furniture, public
art, building forecourts, open
space, transit shelters, bicycle
parking, tree planting, and the
sensitive placement of utilities
with consideration for the public
and private realm.
Development Servicing
11.10.1 Development will be
phased to ensure appropriate
transportation and municipal
servicing infrastructure along
with community services and
facilities are available to service
development. Development is
to progress in a financially
responsible and
environmentally sustainable
manner and cannot proceed
until infrastructure services
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-57
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
such as water, wastewater, and
transportation are available. An
evaluation or study may be
required to demonstrate that
there is sufficient infrastructure
and servicing capacity for a
Major Transit Station Area and
if there isn’t sufficient capacity,
a servicing strategy shall be
completed to the City’s
satisfaction
Delineation of Employment Areas and accompanying policies, including permitted
uses and conversion criteria.
Chapter 3 - Section 3.8
2 Areas - 1 in western
Pickering, 1 in eastern
Pickering
3.8 (a) Employment areas are
recognized as having significant
concentration of manufacturing,
assembly, warehousing and/or
related employment
opportunities.
3.8 (b) Table 7: There are 3
Employment Area
subcategories, with the
following permitted uses:
General Employment - Mainly
industrial uses, with office and
retail sales uses as an ancillary
use to an industrial operation.
Restaurant uses, and limited
personal service serving the
Section 2.2.8
Employment Area
Designations: Employment
& Mixed Use Employment
Employment
Protected and reserved for
employment uses including
manufacturing,
warehousing, logistics,
office, and associated
commercial, retail and
ancillary uses.
2.2.8.5 - Permitted Uses:
heavy/light industrial uses,
commercial uses subject to
appropriate screening (e.g.,
outdoor storage areas,
impound areas, storage,
display or parking of heavy
equipment), waste
management facilities.
Section 3.8
Employment Areas
categories:
Core Employment Areas:
Employment Areas and/or
portions of Employment
Areas to be designated in
local official plans that
generally are:
- Within employment areas
adjacent to, or in proximity
to 400-series highways.
- Adjacent to, or in
proximity to, existing or
planned employment uses
that are incompatible with
non-employment uses.
Examples include noxious
uses and/or traditional
and/or land extensive
employment uses such as
3 Employment Areas:
Highway 400 and
Highway 407: The
City’s most-established
industrial Employment
Area, which is clustered
around the Canadian
National Railway’s
MacMillan Yard and
directly adjacent to the
VMC.
Highway 400 North: A
greenfield Employment
Area generally
clustered around
Highway 400 and the
route of the proposed
Highway 413.
West Vaughan: A mix
of historical and
greenfield employment
development along the
13 Employment Area Character
Areas in Mississauga, 4 are
identified as Corporate Centre
Employment Areas
15.2.1 Corporate Centre
Employment Areas will include
a mix of higher density
employment uses.
15.2.2 Character Area policies
will address the mix of business
uses and density requirements
within each Corporate Centre
Employment Area located
outside Protected Major Transit
Station Areas. These policies
may result in the establishment
of minimum employment and
building densities, building
heights, urban design
standards or transportation
policies, among other matters.
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-58
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
area.
Prestige Employment - Light
industrial uses, offices,
business parks, community,
cultural and recreation uses,
and retail sales uses as an
ancillary use to an industrial
operation. Restaurants, hotels,
financial institutions and limited
personal service uses serving
the area.
Mixed Employment - All uses
listed above are permitted.
Limited retailing of goods and
services uses serving the area.
3.8 (c): Performance standards
for site operation and
appearance required (varied by
employment area
subcategories):
General Employment Areas -
Lowest standards.
Prestige Employment Areas -
Second highest standards
recognizing their high visibility
from major freeways and their
proximity to residential areas.
Mixed Employment Areas -
Highest standards recognizing
their highly visible and
accessible locations along main
arterial roads.
Create Opportunities for Job
2.2.8.9 - Major facilities will
be directed to lands
designated Employment
Area (subject to specific
provincial requirements)
Mixed-Use Employment
Recognized as clusters of
economic activity and
provide a broad range of
employment and
employment-supportive
uses, as well as limited
opportunities for residential
uses only within certain
Major Transit Station Areas.
Generally located on the
periphery of Employment
Areas and planned to
evolve through the
continued expansion of
Rapid Transit and transit
stations along Corridors.
Transit-supportive densities
within these areas can also
provide a physical buffer
between Employment
Areas and
Neighbourhoods.
2.2.8.14 - Permitted Uses:
Major Office will be the
predominant use,
commercial uses (e.g.,
commercial recreation,
hotels, convention centres,
manufacturing,
warehousing and logistics.
- Not appropriate for more
flexible employment uses
Supporting Employment
Area: Employment Areas
and/or portions of
Employment Areas to be
designated in local official
plans that are on the
periphery of Employment
Areas and/or may be
candidates for mixed
employment
uses because of their
location within existing or
proposed intensification
areas. This generally
includes Employment
Areas that:
- are adjacent to major
Regional arterial roads or
on the fringe of
Employment Areas;
- have significant portions
of commercial, retail,
and/or other service or
knowledge-based uses;
- are directly abutting or in
close proximity to
residential or other
sensitive uses and could
benefit from more
appropriate buffering from
existing or future
western municipal
boundary of Vaughan
and connected to the
Highway 427 extension,
including the Canadian
Pacific Railway’s
Vaughan Intermodal
Terminal.
Table 2.3: Employment
Area Density Target
(jobs per hectare)
Highway 400 and
Highway 407 - 70
Highway 400 North - 55
West Vaughan - 30
2.2.4.3 That the lands
designated General
Employment, Prestige
Employment and
Employment
Commercial Mixed-Use
together constitutes the
City's “employment
area” land supply as
defined in the Growth
Plan and the PPS.
2.2.4.4 That the City’s
Employment Areas
consist of core
employment areas,
which are designated
General Employment,
and supporting
15.2.3 For lands abutting an
arterial street in a Corporate
Centre Employment Area, all
accessory uses must be in the
same building as the principal
use.
General Employment Area
Policies
15.6.1 Employment Areas are
encouraged to be planned to
achieve a minimum
employment density of 45 jobs
per hectare.
15.6.2 Notwithstanding the
policies of this Plan, new
development will be planned
for, in conjunction with existing
development densities, to
achieve the minimum jobs per
hectare as specified for each
Protected Major Transit Station
Area.
Each employment area
contains specific policies,
including but not limited to, land
use, urban design policies,
transportation.
Urban Form
8.2.4 Development within
Employment Areas will promote
good urban design that
respects the function of the
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-59
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Creation Particularly on the
Employment Lands Concurrent
with Residential Growth
11.31 It is the objective of City
Council to:
(b) provide sufficient
opportunity for employment in
the Seaton Urban Area to be
balanced with population, with a
ratio of approximately one job
for every two residents by
making employment lands
available to permit an
appropriate balance of
employment opportunities in
conjunction with the
development of the residential
neighbourhoods;
(h) plan for a community that
will accommodate 30,500 jobs
by 2031 and be planned to
accommodate 35,000 jobs
through long-term
intensification.
11.32 Despite the permitted
uses in Table 7, City Council
shall prohibit the following uses
within the Prestige Employment
designation in the Seaton
Urban Area:
(a) retail stores including large
format retail uses except for
convenience commercial, and
retail
motels, and entertainment
uses that support major
office employment), Retail
and restaurant and other
service uses which are
below the Major Retail
threshold (Major Retail
threshold: 3,000 square
metres or more of retail
gross floor area or 1,000
square metres for individual
units) and located on
periphery of designation to
provide a buffer to sensitive
land uses, limited range of
light industrial uses
compatible with permitted
commercial uses, service
commercial uses (located
along the edge of
designation abutting
Neighbourhoods), public
facilities.
2.2.8.16: New major retail
development that includes
one or more stores totaling
3,000 square metres or
more of retail gross floor
area or 1,000 square
metres for individual units
may only be permitted
through an OPA
2.2.8.18: Within the Mixed-
Use Employment
designation, where an
employment uses that may
be incompatible. Examples
include noxious uses,
clusters of manufacturing
or other traditional
employment uses.
3.8.1.1 (c): Recognize the
importance of employment
areas in accommodating
knowledge-based sectors
in addition to traditional
industrial sectors,
including a range of office
uses and integrated uses
which can be appropriately
sited within Employment
Areas (e.g., a site with
integrated distribution and
corporate office uses).
(g): Enable Employment
Areas to offer a broad
range of building space
market choice (e.g.,
business centres and
incubators) for a range of
business sizes (including
small businesses) that
have proximity to
employment supportive
uses and access to public
transit and active
transportation.
(i): Protect Employment
Areas located adjacent to,
employment areas,
which are designated
Prestige Employment
or Employment
Commercial Mixed-
Use.
3.4.2.1 To ensure that a
supply of land is
designated to
accommodate the
forecast of 354,400
jobs in 2051 as directed
through the York
Region Official Plan.
Such lands include
Employment Areas and
Strategic Growth Areas,
as identified on
Schedule 1A.
3.4.2.2 To direct
economic activities in a
manner that supports
the growth policies set
out in Chapter 2 of this
Plan. Specifically,
industrial uses such as
manufacturing and
warehousing, and,
where appropriate,
targeted office uses
should be directed to
Employment Areas.
Other economic
activities, including
area.
9.1.2 Mississauga will protect
Employment Areas shown on
Schedule 1: City Structure, for a
diversity of employment uses to
meet current and future needs.
9.1.3 An adequate supply of
lands providing locations for a
variety of appropriate
employment uses will be
maintained to accommodate
the City’s growth forecasts and
to support a vibrant and
sustainable local economy.
9.1.4 Mississauga will provide
for a wide range of employment
activities including office and
diversified employment uses.
To this end Mississauga will:
a. strive to increase office
employment;
b. encourage the establishment
and support the growth of
knowledge based industries,
creative industries including film
studios and artisans, and small
innovative businesses;
c. encourage the intensification
of existing Employment Areas
with compatible employment
uses; and
d. concentrate high-density
employment uses such as
major office and major
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-60
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
sales as a minor component of
an industrial operation;
(b) outdoor storage;
(c) waste processing, waste
transfer and recycling facilities;
(d) freight transfer and similar
trucking facilities;
(e) automotive and vehicle
sales and repair; and
(f) places of worship and
elementary and secondary
schools.
MSTA study has been
completed, residential uses
that do not conflict with the
main employment uses
may be permitted without a
Municipal Comprehensive
Review.
or in proximity of, goods
movement facilities and
corridors, including
existing and future major
highways and
interchanges, for
manufacturing,
warehousing, logistics,
and appropriate
associated uses.
(j): Plan to accommodate
prestige employment uses
at strategic locations along
the Highway 404 Corridor
and prominent gateways
within the Town that are
amenity rich and located
within proximity to
Whitchurch-Stouffville's
growing labour force.
retail commercial
activities and major
offices should be
directed to Strategic
Growth Areas, where
they can be better
served by transit and
help create vibrant
mixed-use centres and
corridors.
To support the long-
term flexibility, vitality
and competitiveness of
Employment
Areas by:
a. maintaining
Employment Areas as
large and contiguous
areas for clusters of
business and economic
activities including
manufacturing,
warehousing, industrial,
offices, and associated
retail and ancillary
facilities;
b. encouraging
intensification of lands
in existing Employment
Areas through infill,
development of vacant
lands, and
redevelopment of
underutilized lands,
where feasible,
institutional in Major Transit
Station Areas and other
Strategic Growth Areas.
9.1.5 Mississauga will facilitate
the operation and where
appropriate, the expansion of
existing businesses as
permitted by this Plan. In some
locations, alternative land uses
may be identified to encourage
the relocation of existing
businesses to allow the lands to
redevelop in accordance with
the planning vision for the area.
Development proponents may
be required to submit
satisfactory studies prior to
development.
9.1.6 To encourage economic
development and
competitiveness, Mississauga
will ensure the necessary
infrastructure, for which it is
responsible, is provided to
support current and forecasted
employment needs.
9.1.7 Mississauga will
undertake discussions with
utility providers regarding the
feasibility of servicing existing
and future employment areas
with leading edge
telecommunications services,
including broadband
technology, to attract
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-61
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
provided that:
i. the new use is
permitted under Section
4.2 of this Plan;
ii. the intensification of
the site does not inhibit
the future use of the
site for any activity
permitted in
Employment Areas;
and
iii. the new use will not
cause adverse effects
on nearby employment
uses (e.g., through
increased traffic);
c. ensuring land use
compatibility between
uses in Employment
Areas and nearby
sensitive land uses as
directed in policy
3.4.3.2 of this Plan;
d. accommodating a
wide range of business
services and office
uses, as well as
employment-supportive
uses in Employment
Areas, where
appropriate;
e. prohibiting major
retail and standalone
retail uses in
Employment Areas,
knowledge based industries
and support the economic
development, technological
advancement and growth of
existing businesses
9.1.8 Employment areas will be
planned and designed to
minimize surface parking and
be easily accessible by
sustainable transportation
modes, including transit and
active transportation.
9.1.9 Mississauga will foster
eco-industrial activity and clean
technology in employment
areas, which will demonstrate
innovation and high levels of
environmental and economic
performance by:
a. transforming the employment
area into an eco-industrial
zone;
b. creating a sustainable
economic area and green
business areas;
c. investing in green buildings,
technology and practices;
d. encouraging leveraged
partnerships between public
and private organizations; and
e. establishing infrastructure
with multi objectives
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-62
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
pursuant to policies in
Section 4.2 of this Plan;
f. limiting retail uses
within Employment
Areas to employment-
supportive uses
primarily for the
purposes of serving
businesses and
employees in the
Employment Areas,
and directing these
uses to lands
designated Prestige
Employment as
directed by Section 4.2
of this Plan;
g. supporting a broad
mix of lot sizes that
support a diversity of
employment
opportunities related to
the primary function of
Employment Areas to
support both heavy and
light manufacturing
uses, warehousing and
some office uses;
h. facilitating efficient
goods movement
systems, in accordance
with the policies in
Section 3.9 of this Plan;
i. encouraging and
supporting the
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-63
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
remediation and reuse
of contaminated lands
and brownfield sites in
Employment Areas, in
accordance with the
policies of subsection
3.6 of this Plan; and
j. supporting the reuse
and/or repurposing of
older industrial
buildings and/or
Employment Areas for
cleaner and more
affordable employment
uses.
3.4.2.3 To support the
long-term flexibility,
vitality and
competitiveness of
Employment Areas by:
a. maintaining
Employment Areas as
large and contiguous
areas for clusters of
business and economic
activities including
manufacturing,
warehousing, industrial,
offices, and associated
retail and ancillary
facilities;
b. encouraging
intensification of lands
in existing Employment
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-64
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Areas through infill,
development of vacant
lands, and
redevelopment of
underutilized lands,
where feasible,
provided that:
i. the new use is
permitted under Section
4.2 of this Plan;
ii. the intensification of
the site does not inhibit
the future use of the
site for any activity
permitted in
Employment Areas;
and
iii. the new use will not
cause adverse effects
on nearby employment
uses (e.g., through
increased traffic);
c. ensuring land use
compatibility between
uses in Employment
Areas and nearby
sensitive land uses as
directed in policy
3.4.3.2 of this Plan;
d. accommodating a
wide range of business
services and office
uses, as well as
employment-supportive
uses in Employment
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-65
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
Areas, where
appropriate;
e. prohibiting major
retail and standalone
retail uses in
Employment Areas,
pursuant to policies in
Section 4.2 of this Plan;
f. limiting retail uses
within Employment
Areas to employment-
supportive uses
primarily for the
purposes of serving
businesses and
employees in the
Employment Areas,
and directing these
uses to lands
designated Prestige
Employment as
directed by Section 4.2
of this Plan;
3.4.2.4 That lands in
Employment Areas
which also fall within
the confines of a
PMTSA are intended
for more compact
employment uses.
3.4.3.4 To achieve
flexible and adaptable
Employment Areas that
Watson & Associates Economists Ltd. PAGE G-66
In-Effect City of Pickering
Official Plan
Brampton OP
(November 2023)
Whitchurch-Stouffville
OP 2024)
Draft Vaughan OP
(June 2024)
Draft Mississauga OP
(February 2024)
include street patterns
and building design and
siting that allow for
redevelopment and
intensification