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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPLN 32-23Report to Planning & Development Committee Report Number: PLN 32-23 Date: November 6, 2023 From: Kyle Bentley Director, City Development & CBO Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) -File: D-1400-018 Recommendation: 1.That Council receive the Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022), contained in Appendix I to Report PLN 32-23, for information. Executive Summary: This report provides an overview of the Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) (Growth Monitoring Report) prepared by City staff. The main objective of the annual Strategic Growth Area Monitoring Report is to track changes in population and employment within the City Centre and the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node. Financial Implications: The recommendations of this report do not present any financial implications to the City of Pickering. Discussion: 1.Purpose The purpose of this report is to summarize and introduce the findings contained in the Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022), contained in Appendix I to Report PLN 32-23. 2.Background 2.1 Growth Monitoring Report Initiation In January 2022, Council directed staff to prepare an annual report that would monitor the growth and changes in population and employment within the City Centre, and the Kingston Corridor and the Brock Node Intensification Areas (the City’s Strategic Growth Areas, as defined in the Province of Ontario’s Growth Plan). The Strategic Growth Area Monitoring Report (2022) fulfills this direction of Council. Data within the report is up to December 1, 2022. PLN 32-23 Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) November 6, 2023 Page 2 2.2 Strategic Growth Area Monitoring Report (2022) Process The Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) consists of two parts: •Part 1: Results for the City Centre; and •Part 2: Results for the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node. Various City data sources were used to inform the Growth Monitoring Report (2022), including: •the City of Pickering Map Portal, Development Activity Map; •the Detailed 20-Year Population Forecast, prepared by City Development; and •Development Application files. Persons-per-unit ratios from the Detailed 20-Year Population Forecast were used to inform future population totals. In addition, sample commercial and employment data was collected through direct observation, and measurement during the months of July and August of 2022. The collected data was used as a comparison to the calculated estimates for number of jobs. No data sets from the Region of Durham were used in this study. The City sources listed above provided the most current and accurate data available. 2.3 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) Context From application submission to final construction, development can take several years to complete, and is dependent upon many factors, including availability of municipal services, as well as favourable market conditions. The following estimates are based on both new applications still under review, and approved applications, some of which are already under construction. These estimates did not consider any development scenarios or market dynamics, that could have an impact on the timing, number, type, or tenure of development. As this is the first year of tracking existing and proposed development in the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Areas, it is not yet possible to identify trends or patterns in development. Future reporting will be able to provide greater analysis from the collection of additional data over time. This report does not contain policy recommendations. However, the empirical data contained in this, and subsequent reports, may influence future Council decisions and inform future land use policy changes. 3.Results 3.1 City Centre In addition to being a Strategic Growth Area, the City Centre is further identified as an Urban Growth Centre by A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (the Growth Plan). These are regional focal points that are planned to accommodate significant population and employment growth. PLN 32-23 Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) November 6, 2023 Page 3 The population within City Centre, as of December 1, 2022, is estimated to be 5,980 (2,785 residential units of which 407 were constructed in the past 10 years). Including both new applications still under review, and approved applications (some of which are already under construction), the population of the City Centre could increase to approximately 32,215 people (17,265 units). Table 1: Total Units & Population in the City Centre – Past, Present, and Future 2013 (built) 2022 (built) Future (approved and open applications) Units 2,378 2,785 17,265 Population 4,969 5,980 32,215 Over the previous 10 years (2013-2022), the commercial gross floor area in the City Centre dropped due to the demolition of the Sears wing of the Pickering Town Centre. The commercial gross floor area within the City Centre, as of December 1, 2022, is 199,035 square metres (approximately 5,925 jobs). If all current applications were approved by Council and constructed, both new and approved development applications could increase this number to 206,528 square metres (approximately 6,127 jobs). Table 2: Commercial Gross Floor Area (GFA) and Jobs in the City Centre – Past, Present, and Future 2013 (built) 2022 (built) Future (approved and open applications) Commercial GFA 214,302 square metres 199,035 square metres 206,528 square metres Jobs 6,337 5,925 6,127 3.2 Kingston Corridor/Brock Node The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Area is a Strategic Growth Area, as defined by the Growth Plan. These areas are planned to accommodate intensification and higher-density development. The population within the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, as of December 1, 2022, is estimated to be 1,065 people (425 units of which 92 units were constructed in the past 10 years). Both newly received and recently approved development applications could increase this number to 23,065 residents (12,230 units). PLN 32-23 Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) November 6, 2023 Page 4 Table 3: Total Units & Population in the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node – Past, Present, and Future 2013 (built) 2022 (built) Future (approved and open applications) Units 333 425 12,230 Population 790 1,065 23,065 The commercial gross floor area within the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, as of December 1, 2022, is 229,473 square metres (approximately 6,238 jobs). The development proposals being considered in this area would replace existing, low-rise commercial plazas with high-rise, residential and mixed-use buildings. Although new commercial floor space will be constructed within mixed-use buildings, new and approved development applications could decrease the commercial gross floor area within the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node to 173,221 square metres (approximately 4,718 jobs). Table 4: Commercial Gross Floor Area in the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node – Past, Present, and Future 2013 (built) 2022 (built) Future (approved and open applications) Commercial GFA 228,707 square metres 229,473 square metres 173,221 square metres Jobs 6,217 6,238 4,718 4.Conclusion The City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Areas will experience a significant increase in population in the coming years. This increase of approximately 48,235 residents (26,285 units) will form part of the City of Pickering’s forecasted population growth of an additional 153,500 residents by 2051, as set by the Region of Durham. The built form that is proposed to accommodate this increase of population in the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node will predominantly be apartment units, with a small number of row houses. Based on both new and approved development applications, the combined commercial gross floor area in the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node is expected to decrease overall by approximately 48,759 square metres. PLN 32-23 Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) November 6, 2023 Page 5 Staff will continue to provide annual updates on newly completed and occupied developments, along with new development applications, within the City’s Strategic Growth Areas. Staff recommends that Council receive the Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022). Appendix: Appendix I Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report, December 2022 Prepared By: Original Signed By Paul Wirch, RPP Principal Planner, Policy Original Signed By Déan Jacobs, MCIP, RPP Manager, Policy & Geomatics Approved/Endorsed By: Original Signed By Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP Chief Planner Original Signed By Kyle Bentley, P. Eng. Director, City Development & CBO PW:ld Recommended for the consideration of Pickering City Council Original Signed By Marisa Carpino, M.A. Chief Administrative Officer Appendix I to Report PLN 32-23 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report, February 2023 pickering.ca Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report February 2023 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 1 Contents 1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2.0 Background ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 City Centre ................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Kingston Corridor/Brock Node ..................................................................................................................................... 4 2.3 Past Development Conditions (2013-2022) ................................................................................................................. 5 3.0 Report Highlights ............................................................................................................................................................. 7 4.0 The City Centre ............................................................................................................................................................... 8 5.0 The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Area .................................................................................................. 8 6.0 Data Collection ................................................................................................................................................................ 9 6.1 Residential ................................................................................................................................................................... 9 6.2 Commercial.................................................................................................................................................................. 9 6.3 Sources and Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 10 6.4 Context ...................................................................................................................................................................... 10 7.0 Results .......................................................................................................................................................................... 11 7.1 City Centre ................................................................................................................................................................. 12 7.1.1 Residential .......................................................................................................................................................... 13 7.1.2 Commercial ......................................................................................................................................................... 16 7.1.3 Conclusion: City Centre ...................................................................................................................................... 18 7.2. Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Results ..................................................................................................................... 19 7.2.1 Residential .......................................................................................................................................................... 20 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 2 7.2.2 Commercial ......................................................................................................................................................... 29 7.2.3 Conclusion: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node ......................................................................................................... 31 8.0 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................... 32 Appendix I – Definitions ....................................................................................................................................................... 33 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 3 1.0 Introduction Over the past few years, the City of Pickering has been experiencing pressure to permit the redevelopment of properties within the City Centre and the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node. While the applications received to date align with the vision for these areas, the overall number and scale of these proposals represents a significant change to the existing built form and density/land use intensity. The City Centre, previously referred to as “Downtown Pickering”, is identified as an Urban Growth Centre in the Provincial Growth Plan. The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Area (Kingston Corridor/Brock Node) is designated as a Regional Corridor by the Region of Durham and as Mixed Corridor and Specialty Retailing Node in the Pickering Official Plan. As a key focus area for intensification, the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node can be regarded as a Strategic Growth Area, as defined by the Provincial Growth Plan. Lands with these designations will be planned to accommodate significant population and employment growth supported by regional transit connections. The City Centre and the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node are intended to have the widest variety of uses, activity, and density in the City, with the greatest mix and intensity of uses being directed to the City Centre. The transformation of these areas is expected to create walkable, transit-supportive areas that combine residential living and employment spaces within mixed-use buildings or on mixed-use sites. These areas are forecast to grow by a minimum of 26,285 residential units resulting in a population increase of approximately 48,235 residents. The redevelopment of existing retail spaces in these areas will lead to a reduction in the overall commercial gross floor area by 56,252 square metres (approximately 1,520 jobs). The main objective of the Growth Monitoring Report is to track changes in population and employment within the City Centre and the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node. Information to be tracked includes: •Number of existing and proposed residential units according to type; and •Amount of existing and proposed commercial floor space and jobs. 2.0 Background 2.1 City Centre In 2013, City Council endorsed a new vision for the City Centre. The vision consisted of three broad components: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 4 •Ensuring an appropriate land use framework is in place to facilitate redevelopment and intensification; •Working with senior levels of government and utilities to ensure required infrastructure is in place; and •Working with downtown landowners and potential investors to attract desirable investment. The study, “A Vision for Intensification and Framework for Investment”, was released in June 2013, and resulted in the adoption of Official Plan Amendment 26 (OPA 26). In March 2015, the Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) approved OPA 26 with minor policy modifications. In April 2017, Pickering Council approved the City Centre Zoning By-law 7553/17. Following a subsequent appeal to the OMB, the By-law was finally approved by the OMB in February 2018. The City Centre Zoning By-law amended Zoning By-laws 3036 and 2511, and removed all of the lands within the City Centre from these parent by-laws, and created a new stand-alone zoning by-law. The City Centre Zoning By-law: •contains new zoning categories; •permits a broad range of uses; •includes new development standards to regulate the size, location, massing, and height of buildings; •identifies minimum and maximum density provisions; and •creates new vehicle and bicycle parking standards. 2.2 Kingston Corridor/Brock Node In 2015, Phase 1 of the South Pickering Intensification Study was initiated to look beyond the City Centre and investigate strategic directions for future growth and intensification opportunities in the remaining neighbourhoods in South Pickering. It concluded that the Kingston Corridor should be the main area for intensification within the City, second only to the City Centre. Following extensive community consultation and engagement, the South Pickering Intensification Study concluded with the following priorities for development and redevelopment: •direct intensification to local and regional corridors; •maintain stable neighbourhoods; and •improve the mix of uses, walkability and quality of design in the intensification areas. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 5 In 2017, Phase 2 of the Study (the Kingston Road Corridor and Specialty Retailing Node Intensification Study) was initiated, which concluded in December 2019 with Council’s endorsement in principle of an Intensification Plan for the Kingston Road Corridor and Specialty Retailing Node Intensification Study Areas. The Intensification Plan informed the preparation of Official Plan Amendment 38 (OPA 38), which was adopted by Council in January 2022, and later approved by the Region of Durham in October 2022. OPA 38 has been appealed to the Ontario Land Tribunal, and no date has yet been set for the hearing. Also, in January 2022, Council directed staff to prepare an annual report that would monitor the growth and changes within the City Centre and the Kingston Corridor and the Brock Node Intensification Areas. This Growth Monitoring Report fulfills this direction of Council. 2.3 Past Development Conditions (2013-2022) In the City Centre, from 2013 – 2022, the City granted Site Plan Approval for 1,463 apartment units and 232 multiples1. During that same period, building permits were issued for 1,239 apartment units, of which 175 apartment units were constructed and granted occupancy. 232 multiple units were also constructed during that same period and 9,199 square metres of commercial gross floor area (GFA) was built (see Table 1). 25,232 square metres of commercial GFA was demolished over the same period, causing a net decrease of 15,267 square metres of commercial GFA from 2013-2022. In the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, from 2013 – 2022, the City granted Site Plan Approval and issued building permits for 227 apartment units and 222 rowhouse units. During that same period, 92 multiple units were granted occupancy, and 766 square metres of commercial (GFA) was built (see Table 1). 1 See definitions contained in Appendix I Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 6 Table 1: Approval and Construction of Residential Units and Commercial GFA between 2013-2022 (square metres) 2013-20222 Site Plan Approval Building Permits Issued Construction Completed and Occupancy Granted Commercial GFA Built City Centre 1,559 1,239 407 9,199 Kingston Corridor/Brock Node 449 449 92 766 2 Developments included in this count start from Site Plan Approvals, Building Permits, and Occupancy granted in 2013 until 2022. Many of these applications may have commenced prior to 2013. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 7 3.0 Report Highlights There are approximately 2,785 existing residential units in the City Centre, of which 407 were constructed in the past 10 years. There are approximately 425 existing residential units in the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, of which 92 were constructed in the past 10 years. Based on both new development applications and approved development applications, up to December 1, 2022, an estimated 26,300 new housing units are proposed to be created in the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node. This new housing will comprise approximately 25,550 apartment units, 525 multiples and 225 row house units. Of the 26,300 new housing units proposed, approximately 230 are proposed to be purpose built rental units (see Table 2). Table 2: Existing and Proposed Residential Units: City Centre and Kingston Road/Brock Node3 Existing Proposed Total Ownership Rental 3,210 26,060 230 29,490 It is estimated that there is 428,510 square metres of existing commercial floor space in the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node. Based on current and approved development applications, the current commercial gross floor area would decrease to approximately 379,750 square metres (see Table 3). This could result in a potential displacement of an estimated 1,380 jobs within the growth monitoring areas. The form of development being proposed for the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node will result in the replacement of existing plazas and strip malls with at-grade commercial spaces located at the bottom of mixed-use buildings. Table 3: Existing and Proposed Commercial Floor Space: City Centre and Kingston Road/Brock Node (square metres) Existing Proposed Net 428,510 379,750 -48,760 3 Existing and proposed residential data comes from the Pickering Development Portal. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 8 4.0 The City Centre As an Urban Growth Centre, the City Centre is the highest-order intensification area within Pickering and must be planned to achieve a density target of 200 residents and jobs combined per hectare4. Based on the number of existing residents and jobs, as well as approved and proposed development applications, people and jobs within the City Centre represents a gross density of over 260 residents and jobs combined per hectare. Data for the City Centre intensification area is subdivided into City Centre North and City Centre South. These data-sets correspond to areas of the City Centre that are respectively north and south of Highway 401. The Pickering Official Plan establishes a limit on residential development in the City Centre south of Highway 401 prior to 2031 with the aim of achieving a balance of growth north and south of Highway 4015. The policy states that new residential development in City Centre South is restricted to 6,300 people, or 3,400 units, until an additional 2,000 people or 1,100 new units have been developed on lands north of Highway 401 in the City Centre. Based on current development applications and the rate of redevelopment, it is anticipated that, by 2031, the caps for people and units in City Centre South will not have been reached, and therefore, there may not be a need to implement the restrictions established in City Policy 12.10K(b). 5.0 The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Area The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node permits higher residential densities of between 30-180 dwellings per net hectare6. As a Strategic Growth Area, the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node is a key focus for development. Data for the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node is subdivided into the following precincts: • Rougemount; • Whites; • Dunbarton/Liverpool; and • Brock. These precincts were established through the Kingston Corridor and Specialty Retailing Node Intensification Plan (November 2019). 4 A Place to Grow, Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2020. 5 See Pickering Official Plan Policy 12.10K (b). 6 Pickering Official Plan, Table 6. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 9 6.0 Data Collection Data was collected on the number, type, and tenure of existing and proposed residential units along with the existing and proposed amount of commercial GFA. 6.1 Residential The existing number of residential units is based on data collected from the Pickering Development Portal and the forecast number of residential units is based on submitted development applications. Development applications include: • Open Applications7 – Development applications received by the City that are still being reviewed; and • Approved Applications8 – Includes developments that have been approved but have not yet begun construction, as well as approved developments that have begun construction but have not yet been completed and occupied. Pre-consultation proposals have not been included in the residential and commercial forecast since they are conceptual in nature, and subject to change, before being submitted as formal development applications. 6.2 Commercial The commercial data collected includes the existing and proposed commercial GFA, as well as an estimate of existing and proposed jobs. Proposed commercial GFA is based on new and approved applications received up to December 1, 2022. Existing job estimates are based on the following two ratios: • 1 job for every 37 square metres of GFA for general commercial properties. General commercial properties include retail uses, restaurants and grocery stores; and • 1 job for every 23.25 square metres of GFA for office properties. Office properties include both major office buildings and small offices, such as health practitioners and professional services (finance, insurance, real estate, etc.)9. 7 All applications submitted up to December 1 of 2022 are used in this data collection. 8 All applications approved up to December 1 of 2022 are used in this data collection. 9 The ratios referenced are based on industry standards provided by the City of Pickering Economic Development & Strategic Projects. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 10 Future job estimates are based on GFA included in development applications using the more conservative general commercial ratio of 1 job for every 37 square metres of GFA. An in-person survey was conducted to ground-truth actual employment data for the study area. This survey data was then compared to the ratios referenced above. This comparison resulted in similar findings between ground-truth employment data collected, and the employment data estimated from the referenced ratios. 6.3 Sources and Methodology Various City data sources were used to inform the Growth Monitoring Report, including: • the City of Pickering Map Portal, Development Activity Map (up to December 1, 2022); • the Detailed 20-Year Population Forecast (December 2021); and • Development Application files. Persons-per-unit ratios from the Detailed 20-Year Population Forecast were used to forecast future population totals. In addition, sample commercial and employment data was collected through direct observation and measurement during the months of July and August of 2022. The collected data was used as a comparison to the calculated estimates for number of jobs. 6.4 Context The City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node consists of 128 properties. Not all properties within this area are expected to redevelop over time. Beyond the development applications that have already been approved or are still under review, the City is expected to see interest in the redevelopment of additional properties in the future. As a result, the forecasts contained in this report are reflective of a point in time. The intent of this report is to provide information about current conditions and forecasts, and provide the basis for ongoing reporting in the future. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 11 7.0 Results From application submission to final construction, development can take several years to complete and is dependent upon many factors from availability of municipal services to favourable market conditions. The following estimates are based on all new, and approved applications, being constructed. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 12 7.1 City Centre The City Centre Neighbourhood, shown in Figure 1 below, is Provincially designated as an Urban Growth Centre. The neighbourhood is divided by Highway 401 into the areas known as City Centre North and City Centre South. Figure 1: Map of the City Centre Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 13 7.1.1 Residential There are an estimated 2,785 existing units within City Centre North which results in an existing population of approximately 5,980 residents10. New and approved applications propose an additional 11,630 units for City Centre North, resulting in an estimated 21,100 additional residents (see Table 4).11 Table 4: City Centre North Residential Units / Population Existing Proposed Total Units Population Units Population Units Population 2,785 5,980 11,630 21,100 14,415 27,080 There are no existing residential units in City Centre South12. New and approved applications propose an estimated 2,850 units in City Centre South (all apartment units), resulting in approximately 5,135 additional residents (see Table 5). Table 5: City Centre South Residential Units / Population Existing Proposed Total Units Population Units Population Units Population 0 0 2,850 5,135 2,850 5,135 10 These population estimates are based on 3 persons per unit for Detached, Semi-Detached, Row house, and Multiple units, and 1.8 persons per unit for apartment units. 11 These estimates are rounded totals. 12 NB: Partial occupancy for Universal City 1 (Residential tower in City Centre South) occurred after the data collection and therefore are not counted as existing residential units. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 14 Figure 2: City Centre Residential Units – Existing and Proposed 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 CC North CC South Existing Proposed Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 15 Based on complete build out of all new and approved applications, the predominant built form within the City Centre will be apartment units (94%) (see Table 6). These units will house 91% of the population in the City Centre, (see Table 7). Table 6: Forecasted Change in Residential Units by Type13 Existing Existing and Proposed Net Change City Centre North Apartment 1,981 13,476 11,495 Multiple 412 492 80 Row House 343 398 55 Semi-Detached 4 4 0 Single Detached 46 46 0 City Centre South Apartment 0 2,852 2,852 Multiple 0 0 0 Row House 0 0 0 Semi-Detached 0 0 0 Single Detached 0 0 0 Total 2,786 17,268 14,482 13 The definitions of all residential types can be found in Appendix I. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 16 Table 7: Forecasted Population in City Centre CC North CC South Units Population Units Population Apartments 13,476 24,257 2,852 5,133 Multiple 492 1,476 0 0 Row house 398 1,194 0 0 Semi-detached 4 12 0 0 Detached 46 138 0 0 Total 14,416 27,077 2,852 5,133 Residential data regarding affordable housing in the City Centre is contained in the Annual Housing Monitoring Report. 7.1.2 Commercial The City Centre currently has approximately 199,035 square metres of commercial GFA with an estimated 5,925 jobs (see Table 8). These numbers are divided into City Centre North with 156,746 square metres of GFA and 4,780 jobs and City Centre South with 42,289 square metres of GFA and 1,145 jobs (see Table 9). Based on new and approved applications, redeveloped properties will result in a net increase in commercial GFA of approximately 5,668 square metres and 153 new jobs to City Centre North and an increase of approximately 1,825 square metres of commercial GFA and 49 new jobs to City Centre South by 2031. The combined amount for the entire City Centre (North and South), will be an estimated 7,493 square metres of new commercial GFA with the addition of approximately 202 jobs (see Figure 3). Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 17 Table 8: City Centre Commercial GFA Forecast (square metres) City Centre GFA Jobs Existing Future Existing Future 199,035 206,528 5,925 6,127 Table 9: City Centre North and City Centre South Commercial GFA Forecast (square meters) City Centre North City Centre South Year GFA Jobs GFA Jobs Existing 156,746 4,780 42,289 1,145 Future 162,414 4,933 44,114 1,194 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 18 Figure 3: City Centre Commercial Gross Floor Area Forecast (square metres) 7.1.3 Conclusion: City Centre The City Centre is anticipated to experience significant residential growth in the coming years (an estimated 14,500 new units). This growth will coincide with an overall increase in the amount of commercial floor area. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 CC North CC South Existing Future Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 19 7.2. Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Results Figure 4: A map of the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node and its four precincts. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 20 7.2.1 Residential There are an estimated 425 existing units within Kingston Corridor/Brock Node which results in an existing population of approximately 1,065 residents (see Table 10). New and approved applications propose an additional 11,805 units for Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, resulting in an estimated 22,000 additional residents.14 68% of the new population expected in the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node (8,025 units and approximately 14,665 new residents15) comes from applications received within the Brock Node. Table 10: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node – Residential Units and Population16 Existing Proposed Total Units Population Units Population Units Population 425 1,065 11,805 22,000 12,230 23,065 Table 11: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node – Forecasted Change in Residential Units by Type Existing Existing and Proposed Net Change Apartment 168 11,352 11,184 Multiple 139 579 440 Row House 101 283 182 Semi-Detached 0 0 0 Single Detached 16 16 0 TOTAL 424 12,230 11,806 14 These estimates are rounded totals. 15 These estimates are based on 3 persons per unit for Detached, Semi-Detached, Row house, and Multiple units, and 1.8 persons per unit for apartment units. 16 Estimates contained in this Table are rounded totals. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 21 Figure 5: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Residential Units – Existing and Proposed 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Existing Proposed Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 22 Figure 6: Rougemount Precinct Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 23 Table 12: Rougemount Precinct Residential Forecast Apartment Multiple Rowhouse Semi- Detached Detached Total Existing Units 105 47 30 0 0 182 Proposed Units 580 0 0 0 0 580 Total Units 685 47 30 0 0 762 Total Population 1,233 141 90 0 0 1,464 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 24 Figure 7: Whites Precinct. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 25 Table 13: Whites Precinct Residential Forecast Apartment Multiple Rowhouse Semi- Detached Detached Total Existing Units 63 92 30 0 15 200 Proposed Units 2,759 440 0 0 0 3,199 Total Units 2,822 532 30 0 15 3,399 Total Population 5,080 1,596 90 0 45 6,811 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 26 Figure 8: Dunbarton/Liverpool Precinct. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 27 Table 14: Dunbarton/Liverpool Precinct Residential Forecast Apartment Multiple Rowhouse Semi- Detached Detached Total Existing Units 0 0 41 0 0 41 Proposed Units 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Units 0 0 41 0 0 41 Total Population 0 0 123 0 0 123 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 28 Figure 9: Brock Precinct. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 29 Table 15: Brock Precinct Residential Forecast Apartment Multiple Rowhouse Semi- Detached Detached Total Existing Units 0 0 0 0 0 0 Proposed Units 7,845 0 182 0 0 8,027 Total Units 7,845 0 182 0 0 8,027 Total Population 14,121 0 546 0 0 14,667 7.2.2 Commercial The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node has 229,473 square metres of existing commercial GFA, generating an estimated 6,238 jobs in the area (see Table 16). Based on current development applications, 97,552 square metres of existing commercial GFA is proposed to be redeveloped into mixed use buildings containing a combination of residential units (predominantly above the ground floor) and approximately 41,300 square metres of commercial GFA (generally on the ground floor). Redeveloping this area with a mix of uses, as proposed by current development applications, will result in an overall loss of 56,252 square metres of commercial GFA and the loss of an estimated 1,520 jobs (see Figure 10). Table 16: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Commercial Forecast Kingston Corridor/Brock Node GFA Jobs Existing Future % Decrease Existing Future % Decrease 229,473 173,221 25% 6,238 4,718 25% Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 30 Table 17: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Commercial Forecast by Precinct Rougemount Precinct Whites Precinct Dunbarton / Liverpool Precinct Brock Precinct GFA Jobs GFA Jobs GFA Jobs GFA Jobs Existing 15,611 423 57,780 1,562 64,864 1,789 91,218 2,465 Future 14,332 388 49,242 1,331 64,864 1,790 44,783 1,210 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 31 Figure 10: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Commercial Gross Floor Area Forecast (square metres) 7.2.3 Conclusion: Kingston Corridor / Brock Node The existing low-rise commercial plazas and homes along the Kingston Corridor are expected to redevelop at higher densities in the years to come. This is in keeping with Provincial and Regional policy as well as the Pickering Official Plan which identifies Kingston Corridor/Brock Node as an intensification area. Based on proposed and newly approved development applications, new construction will result in a significant increase of new apartments (from 168 to 11,352) and a 25% reduction in overall commercial floor space. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Existing Proposed Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 32 8.0 Conclusion The Region of Durham forecasts that Pickering’s population will grow by an additional 153,500 residents by 205117. A significant amount of that growth is expected to occur within the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Areas. Based on new and approved applications, the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node are forecast to provide spaces for approximately 48,235 new residents (26,285 new units). Based on current development applications, the commercial gross floor area in the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node is proposed to decrease by approximately 48,759 square metres. This represents an 11% reduction in commercial gross floor area across both intensification areas. The estimates contained in this report are based on best available data. These estimates did not consider any development scenarios or market dynamics that could have an impact on the timing, number, type, or tenure of development. As this is the first year of tracking existing and proposed development in the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Areas, it is not yet possible to identify trends or patterns in development. Future reporting will be able to provide greater analysis from the collection of additional data over time. This report does not contain policy recommendations. However, the empirical data contained in this and subsequent reports may influence future Council decisions and inform future land use policy changes. City Development also prepared an Annual Housing Monitoring Report that provided a broader perspective on housing affordability across all of Pickering. 17 Envision Durham – Growth Management Study, Phase 2: Draft Settlement Area Boundary Expansions and Area Municipal Growth Allocations, 2022. Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report As of December 1, 2022 33 Appendix I – Definitions18 Apartment: applies to units not covered by the above categories, including those in apartment buildings (high rise and low rise), and those located in mixed use buildings. Detached House: residential structure containing one dwelling which is completely separated on all sides from any other dwelling or structure. Examples include: bungalows, split-level houses, one and a half storey houses, two storey houses and link homes. Other Multiples: cover duplexes, triplexes, stacked townhouses, maisonettes and other residential structures containing up to five units. Row house: ground-oriented dwellings attached to two or more similar units so that the resulting row structure contains three or more units. Fourplexes are also classified as row housing. Semi-Detached House: a dwelling that is physically connected with one other dwelling. There is no means of internal access from one dwelling to the next. The physical connection is vertical and must be above-ground, and may consist of a common wall separating the two dwellings; a common wall separating the garages attached to each dwelling; or a physical connection between the carports attached to each residential structure. 18 Definitions of residential types are from the City of Pickering Map Portal.