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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPLN 17-23Report to Planning & Development Committee Report Number: PLN 17-23 Date: June 5, 2023 From: Kyle Bentley Director, City Development & CBO Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report -File: D-1300-016 Recommendation: 1.That Council receive the City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report for information; and 2.That Council re-affirms its authorization for the appropriate officials of the City of Pickering to continue to take the necessary actions as indicated in the Pickering Housing Action Plan 2021-2031. Executive Summary: On January 24, 2022 Council approved the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan, 2021-2031 (see PLN 02-22). Action Item 3.7 required the preparation of an annual Housing Monitoring Report. This Report (PLN 17-23) is the first Housing Monitoring Report for the City of Pickering. The Action Item Update is provided as Appendix I to Report PLN 17-23, together with an update on the status of each action. Staff have completed the implementation of two of the Action Items, and have initiated work on the review of fourteen additional items to implement the Housing Strategy. As part of Phase I of the Pickering Housing Strategy Study, a housing profile was created to identify current and emerging housing needs within Pickering. A copy of the report, titled Research & Gap Analysis, dated March 31, 2021 (the ‘Gap Analysis’) is available on the City’s website. The housing profile data contained in this Report, which was developed using 2016 Census data and other available data sources, informed the Council approved housing strategy and action plan items. With the availability of the most recent Statistics Canada data (2021), staff has updated the Pickering housing profile (see updated Pickering Housing Profile 2023, Appendix II). Staff will continue to update the profile, every five years, when new census data is available. Since Council approved the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan in 2022, there have been substantial changes to Provincial Legislation, through various pieces of legislation, including Bill 23, More Homes Built Faster Act, 2022. The changes to legislation directly impact a number of the action items in the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan. Staff continues to review the legislative changes against the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan. Next year’s monitoring report will identify proposed amendments to the action items, if required, once the full impact of the legislation has been determined. PLN 17-23 June 5, 2023 Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report Page 2 Financial Implications: The recommendations of this report do not present any financial implications to the City. 1. Purpose The purpose of this report is to provide Council with the annual Housing Monitoring Report, in accordance with Action Item 3.7 of the January 24, 2022 Council-approved Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan, 2021-2031. On June 30, 2022 Council, through Resolution #956/22, directed staff to also report back on tracking affordable and rental housing, including existing, approved, and/or pending private rental buildings. Furthermore, this report also provides an updated Pickering Housing Profile (previously the Gap Analysis report) based on 2021 Census Data. 2. Background Pickering Council adopted the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan 2021-2031 on January 4, 2022. The purpose of the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan is to: • establish the City’s role and priorities with facilitating opportunities for developing housing, affordable housing, and age-friendly housing in Pickering over the next 10 years (2021-2031); • assist Council with decision making; • provide a framework for staff in implementing its responsibilities, including those that relate to the coordination of actions with other agencies, organizations and governments; • assist in guiding residential growth within the City; • aid in the education and creation of general public awareness of what the City is doing on this issue; and • provide a mechanism to monitor progress as the City works to implement its plan. The Housing Strategy Study was undertaken in three phases. Phase 1 included a Research and Gap Analysis Report. A copy of that report can be found on the City of Pickering Housing Strategy webpage. The Research and Gap Analysis Report provided background data on Pickering’s housing profile and identified housing gaps within the City. Phases 2 and 3 of the Study comprised the preparation of the Draft, and Recommended, Housing Strategy and Action Plan. The Housing Strategy Study included creating a plan with specific actions to address the gaps identified in Phase 1 of the study. The Approved Housing Strategy & Action Plan provides a framework of policies, incentives and actions the City can consider to support the housing needs of residents. PLN 17-23 June 5, 2023 Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report Page 3 In accordance with Action Item 3.7 of the Council approved Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan 2021-2031 (Housing Strategy & Action Plan), staff was directed to prepare a Housing Monitoring Plan/Report. The goal of the Housing Monitoring Plan/Report is to identify whether or not the goals and objectives of the Housing Strategy are being met, and if any modifications to the Action Plan are necessary. Subsequently, Council also directed staff in June 2022 to track affordable and rental housing within the City, including existing, approved and/or pending private rental apartment buildings, and to include the results thereof in the annual Housing Monitoring Report to Council. The results of this work are outlined in section 3.2 of this report. The Housing Monitoring Report provides an overview of actions taken through the first year and includes the following two components: • Updates on the Action Items, which have been impacted significantly by recent changes to the Provincial legislation through Bill 23 (further elaborated on in section 3.5 of this report); and • A condensed and updated Pickering housing profile, that builds on Statistics Canada data from the 2016 census (which informed the Phase 1 Gap Analysis Report). 3. Discussion 3.1 Housing Strategy Action Plan Monitoring Since the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan was approved in 2022, staff have completed the implementation of two action items, and have initiated work on, or are in the process of reviewing, fourteen additional action items. The following action items have been completed or are well underway through 2023: • Action Item 1.9: Completed the review of the Pickering Official Plan and Zoning By-law policies to ensure there are no policies or provisions that prevent shared living arrangements (co-housing, co-living) in appropriate areas as-of-right. The review concluded that there are no restrictions that would prevent shared living arrangements. • Action Item 1.12: Staff have provided Council with draft Official Plan Amendment 46, through reports PLN 09-23 and PLN 12-23, which included amendments to the Official Plan to make affordable housing briefs a requirement for Planning Act applications. • Action Item 1.8: Staff expedited the review of additional dwelling units, in view of recent changes to the Planning Act through Bill 23. Public engagement for the additional dwelling units review began in April 2023. Staff provided an information report to Planning & Development Committee in May 2023 (see Information Report 05-23). Staff anticipate bringing a report to Council on proposed amendments in Fall 2023. • Action Items 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3: Staff have begun the review of definitions and housing targets in the Pickering Official Plan, to ensure consistency with the PLN 17-23 June 5, 2023 Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report Page 4 Provincial Policy Statement and the Region of Durham Official Plan. The Province, on April 6, 2023, released a new Provincial Planning Statement document for review and comment. The Region brought forward a draft Official Plan to Regional Council on May 17, 2023. The review of these documents remains ongoing and staff’s review cannot be completed until the final legislation is enacted, and the Province approves the Regional Official Plan. • Action Item 3.8: A new staff position has been approved through the 2023 budget that will spearhead the new Office of Affordability within City Development. The position will also be responsible for implementing the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan. The recruitment process for this position is currently underway with a goal to have it filled by the fall of 2023. Staff have updated Pickering’s housing profile based on Statistics Canada data from 2021 (see updated Pickering Housing Profile, 2022, Appendix II). Staff will update these key data points when new data becomes available from Statistics Canada (every five years), and report them to Council. The long-term tracking of data will provide greater insight into how the action plan is impacting housing delivery, and affordability, in Pickering. Staff has reviewed the action items against recent changes to Provincial Legislation through Bill 23, which is further discussed in section 3.5 of this report PLN 17-23. The changes to Provincial Legislation have required staff to reallocate resources and to pause the review of some action items while awaiting additional information from the Province. Staff has not specifically proposed changes to the action items through this report. Staff will report any suggested modifications to the action items in future annual monitoring reports when that analysis has been completed. Staff were engaged in reviewing and providing comments on the Region of Durham Official Plan Review. Staff provided comments on the draft Regional Official Plan (ROP) through Report PLN 08-23 in April 2023. The comments included recommendations that the Region reinforce policies to strengthen local housing strategies. The Region has provided notice that a recommended ROP will be brought to Regional Council on May 17, 2023. Staff will continue to monitor the policies brought forward in the ROP to confirm that the direction of Pickering’s Housing Strategy & Action Plan can continue to be implemented. 3.2 Current Rental and Affordable Housing Projects in Pickering In response to Council Resolution #956/22, dated June 30, 2022, staff advises that Pickering currently has 353 primary rental market units, consisting of townhouses and apartments. The following three projects have been submitted, one approved and under construction, and two in the application stage, that would increase the number of primary rental units in Pickering: Approved and Under Construction: A 12-storey, 227-unit rental apartment building at 1475 Whites Road. The building has a mix of unit sizes from one bedroom to three bedrooms. PLN 17-23 June 5, 2023 Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report Page 5 Applications Submitted: • To develop 41 residential rental units within low rise apartments and townhouses at 1066 Dunbarton Road. The application is proposing to retain a portion of the existing place of worship on the property. The application has indicated that 30% of the units would be offered at 80% of the median market rent. There will be a mix of unit sizes from one bedroom to three bedrooms. • To develop three condominium buildings with a total of 1,756 units at the north-west corner of Liverpool Road and Highway 401. The owners have partnered with Habitat for Humanity. 27 units will be sold by Habitat for Humanity to qualified, lower income families. 3.3 Updated Pickering Housing Profile (Gap Analysis Data) The 2022 Housing Monitoring Report provided an opportunity for reporting updated population and housing related data. Many of the statistics in the original Gap Analysis were based on the 2016 Census, which is reported every five years. Staff reviewed and added the 2021 Census data to the key data points in the original gap analysis data, as outlined in the updated Housing Profile (see Appendix II to this report). It is important to note that this level of data reporting will not be available for every annual housing monitoring report. In view of this, staff will be reviewing the metrics/data sets that are available on an annual basis to create a monitoring report template for the years where new Census data is not available. 3.4 Key Changes in Pickering’s Housing Profile It is important that Pickering’s Housing Profile data be updated when possible, based on availability of measurable data, for tracking purposes and to distinguish trends and/or patterns. The updated profile will allow staff to identify new and emerging trends and identify if actions taken are having an impact on housing delivery and affordability in Pickering. Below is a summary of key trends and findings based on the 2021 census data. 3.4.1 Housing Demand Trends • Pickering grew by 8.1% since 2016, slightly higher than the Region of Durham growth rate, 7.9%. According to the Detailed 20 Year Population Forecast, Pickering is projected to see a higher rate of growth in the next decade. • Pickering is seeing the highest growth in young adults (19.9%) and seniors age groups (17.2%), while seeing a decline in older adults (-2.5%). The increase in younger families and seniors may impact the types of housing demand in the coming years as young adults may be first time buyers with growing families, while seniors may seek to downsize. • The number of one-maintainer households is declining (-9%), resulting in increases to two and three household maintainer households. This shift could be a result of multi-generational families or co-housing increasing due to increased housing unaffordability. PLN 17-23 June 5, 2023 Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report Page 6 • The number of households renting has been slowly increasing, from 10.9% in 2006 to 14.8% in 2021. • Pickering continues to have higher average and median household incomes than Durham Region. In 2015, 54% of Pickering households were identified within the high-income decile bracket. This indicates that Pickering household incomes, while still greater than the Durham Region average, are coming more in line with Regional averages. As average household incomes decrease and become more in line with the Durham Region average, this could put greater strain on affordability of housing in the future if home prices continue to remain higher than the Durham Region average. 3.4.2 Housing Supply Trends • In 2021, there were a total of 33,425 dwellings in Pickering, an increase of 8.1% since 2016. The share of townhouses and apartments has grown 15.9% and 9.6% respectively since 2016, increasing the diversity of dwellings types. • Since 2018, there has been a shift in building construction type, resulting in townhouse dwellings representing the majority of building permits issued most years, where previously it was single detached dwellings. • The number of households on the Durham Access to Social Housing (DASH) waitlist continues to far exceed the number of units available. • In 2021, rental vacancy rates remained extremely low in Pickering/Ajax/Uxbridge at 1.4%, down from 1.7% in 2020 (as compared to a desirable minimum vacancy rate of 3%). 3.4.3 Housing Affordability Trends • The number of owners and renters spending more than 30% of their income on housing decreased between 2015 and 2020. For renters, the decrease was significant, from 45.8% to 38.4%, and for homeowners the decrease was minor, from 22.2% to 21.7%. • Average market rents for purpose-built rental units in 2020 were not affordable to renter households having incomes within low income deciles (1st to 3rd). Similar to 2015, only renters having incomes within the 5th income decile ($74,000) or higher would be able to afford the average market rent (all apartment types) without having to spend more than 30% of their income on rent. • Only high-income earners, those making $104,000 or higher, would be able to afford the average market rent (all apartment types) in the secondary market in Pickering in 2020, without having to spend more than 30% of their income on rent. • The average resale price for all home types in Pickering has seen significant increases between 2019 and 2022, with the average resale price in 2022 being $1,158,753. Prices have increased 60% since 2019. PLN 17-23 June 5, 2023 Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report Page 7 3.5 Recent Provincial Legislation Changes that impact the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan Since Council adopted the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan in January 2022 there have been significant changes to Provincial Legislation through Bill 23, including amendments to the Planning Act, Municipal Act, and the Development Charges Act. These changes have a direct impact on a number of the actions contained within the Housing Strategy & Action Plan. In many cases, the Province has eliminated Pickering’s ability to create a local solution and has imposed mandated exemptions or permitted land use permissions as of right. This is explained in more detail in the proceeding sections 3.5.1 to 3.5.3. 3.5.1 Bill 23 Changes to the Planning Act (a) Additional Dwelling Unit Provisions Bill 23 revised additional dwelling unit provisions in the Planning Act by permitting a total of three dwelling units as-of-right in urban areas, and in rural areas (subject to additional provisions in Provincial Plans), on a lot where single, semi-detached or townhouse dwellings are permitted. Although staff were already working on additional dwelling unit provisions as part of the Comprehensive Zoning By-law Review project, the revised legislation has expedited the timeline for this work. Staff are anticipating a recommendation report regarding these new as-of-right provisions in the Planning Act to Council in early Fall of 2023. This has necessitated a revision to the timeframe for Action Item 1.8 from a “short to medium” timeframe to a “short-term” timeframe. (b) Inclusionary Zoning Regulations Inclusionary zoning is a land use planning tool which municipalities may use to require affordable housing units to be included in residential developments of 10 or more units, in identified Protected Major Transit Station Areas (PMTSA’s). Through Bill 23, an upper limit on the number of units that can be required to be affordable within a PMTSA, has been set at 5% of the total number of units. This effectively eliminated the ability of municipalities to establish a higher percentage to be affordable. The amendments to the Planning Act also establish a maximum period of 25 years over which the units would be required to remain affordable. Providing a maximum affordability period of 25 years could result in affordable units being converted to market units at the end of the time frame, reducing the supply of affordable units in PMTSA’s in the future. These Provincial legislative changes directly impacts Action Item 1.7 in the Action Plan to consider adding new Official Plan policies to implement inclusionary zoning in Pickering’s PMTSA. Although this action item is still under review, the potential benefits, and the ability to create policies to enable the implementation of inclusionary zoning in response to the specific needs of Pickering, have been significantly reduced. PLN 17-23 June 5, 2023 Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report Page 8 (c) Parkland Exemptions Parkland dedication requirements for all development were generally reduced by 50% through Bill 23. Additionally, “affordable” units, “attainable” units, and non-profit housing developments are exempt from parkland dedication requirements. Action Item 2.2 in the Action Plan included the review of financial incentives, including the reduction or exception of parkland dedication requirements, for affordable rental or ownership housing on a case-by-case basis. 3.5.2 Bill 23 Changes to the Municipal Act (a) Rental Replacement Regulations Through Bill 23, the Municipal Act was amended to give the Minister the authority to impose regulations to standardize and clarify municipal powers to regulate the demolition and conversion of residential rental properties. The regulations have not been introduced by the Minister to date. The regulations could directly impact what can and cannot be included in any future rental replacement policies within Pickering’s Official Plan. This directly impacts Action Items 1.5 and 1.6 in the Action Plan to introduce new Official Plan policies to protect existing rental housing stock in the City. 3.5.3 Bill 23 Changes to the Development Charges Act (a) Definitions of “Affordable” and “Attainable” Housing Through Bill 23, new definitions for “affordable” and “attainable” residential units were identified. The definition of “affordable” unit means the price or rent of the residential unit is no greater than 80 percent of the average purchase price or rent. The definition of “attainable” was added to the Act, but additional criteria is required to fully understand what an “attainable” unit will entail. The regulations regarding “affordable” and “attainable” will come into force by proclamation at a date to be announced. Action Item 1.1 in the Action Plan proposed the addition of a definition of “affordable” to the Pickering Official Plan in accordance with the definition in the Provincial Policy Statement, 2020. The new definition in the Development Charges Act, and potential additional changes to the Provincial Policy Statement, discussed in section 3.6 below, are being monitored by staff, and may impact proposed amendments to the Official Plan that would achieve the action item. (b) Exemptions for “Affordable”, “Attainable” and Non-Profit Residential Units “Affordable” and “attainable” residential units, and non-Profit housing developments, are exempt from paying Development Charges. Action Item 2.2 considered financial incentives, including the reduction in Development Charges, for affordable rental or ownership housing on a case-by-case basis. PLN 17-23 June 5, 2023 Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report Page 9 The amendments to the Development Charges Act has removed Pickering’s ability to implement these incentives and have applied them as of right, with an imposed definition of what is an affordable residential unit, as outlined above. 3.6 Provincial Review of the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) and A Place To Grow (The Growth Plan) The Province is continuing to review the potential to integrate the PPS and the Growth Plan into a single document. The Province has indicated the review is occurring in an attempt to simplify and remove unnecessary duplication in legislation. On April 6, 2023, the Province released the draft Provincial Planning Statement for comment. Staff submitted a report to Council on May 23, 2023, Report PLN 16-23, seeking Council’s endorsement of staff comments. Staff will continue to monitor the review of the Provincial Plans, and report any significant changes that come into effect, that may impact the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan, through the next annual housing monitoring report. 4. Conclusion This is the first annual Housing Monitoring Report, prepared in accordance with the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan 2021-2031. It reports on the current steps staff have under taken to implement the actions of the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan (Appendix I), provides an updated Pickering housing profile (Appendix II), and identifies recent changes to Provincial Legislation that impact the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan. Staff have completed the implementation of two action items, and have initiated work, or review, of fourteen action items in the first year since the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan was approved. Since the approval on the Housing Strategy & Action Plan, there have been significant changes to Provincial legislation. Staff are continuing to monitor the changes to legislation and the impacts on the Housing Strategy & Action Plan. As part of the 2023 Budget process Council approved funding for a dedicated position, similar to an Office of Affordability, within the City. The recruitment for the position is currently on-going. Appendices: Appendix I Action Item Update Appendix II Updated Pickering Housing Profile PLN 17-23 June 5, 2023 Subject: City of Pickering 2022 Annual Housing Monitoring Report Page 10 Prepared By: Original Signed By Brandon Weiler, MCIP, RPP Principal Planner, Policy Original Signed By Déan Jacobs, MCIP, RPP Manager, Policy & Geomatics Approved/Endorsed By: Original Signed By Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP Chief Planner Original Signed By Kyle Bentley, P. Eng. Director, City Development & CBO BW :ld Recommended for the consideration of Pickering City Council Original Signed By Marisa Carpino, M.A. Chief Administrative Officer Appendix I to Report PLN 17-23 Action Item Update Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Pickering Housing Strategy Action Plan Each action is categorized according to the following themes: policy, financial incentives, and other. A timeframe and estimated cost of implementation has been identified for each action and is shown in the table below. In addition, the table identifies the gap from the Phase 1: Research and Gap Analysis Report, March 31, 2021, that the action addresses and the City department to lead the initiative. Gaps Identified through the Research and Gap Analysis Report, March 31, 2021. • Gap 1 relates to the need for housing options for: • Low and moderate income earners; • Rental and ownership housing; • Range of unit sizes; and • Accessible units; • Gap 3 relates to the need for: • Home ownership housing options for moderate income earners; • Range of unit sizes; and • Accessible units; • Gap 2 relates to the need for: • Primary rental market units of all sizes • Protection of units in the primary rental market; • Accessible units in the primary rental market; • Gap 4 are policy gaps related to housing in the City’s Official Plan that are the result of new or recent changes to provincial legislation. Legend for updated Action Plan below: Timeframe Short-term ■□□ 1-5 years Medium-term □■□ 5 -10 years Long-term □□■ 10 or more years Cost Estimate Low $ Under $10,000 Medium $$ $10,000 - $25,000 High $$$ Over $25,000 Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 1.0 Policy 1.1 Add a definition of “affordable housing” to the City’s Official Plan which includes reference to the average purchase price and average market rent in accordance with the definition in the Provincial Policy Statement, 2020. Gap 4 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Through Bill 23, the Province has introduced new definitions of “affordable” and “attainable” in the Development Charges Act. The Province is also currently reviewing the Provincial Policy Statement and Growth Plan. This review could result in amended definitions within these documents. Staff will continue to monitor the changes the Province is introducing and what implications these changes have on the Action Items. Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 1.2 Add a definition of “Housing Options” to the City’s Official Plan. Gap 4 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Staff were engaged in the review of the Region’s Draft Official Plan (ROP), through Envision Durham. The draft ROP contains the definition of “Housing Options”. Staff are reviewing the potential to apply common definitions through multiple levels of government planning documents subject to the draft ROP being approved. 1.3 Amend the City’s Official Plan to reflect the Provincial Policy Statement 2020 requirement for the municipality to maintain the ability to accommodate residential growth for a minimum of 15 years (as opposed to 10 years as currently written). Gap 4 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Staff are monitoring the current Provincial Policy Statement and Growth Plan review, discussed in 1.1, for changes or modifications prior to bringing forward any amendments. Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 1.4 Consider amending the City’s Official Plan to reflect the Provincial Policy Statement 2020 option to increase from 3 to 5 years the minimum number of years to accommodate a short- term supply of residential lands, subject to the outcome of Durham Region’s Envision Durham exercise. Gap 4 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Staff are monitoring the current Provincial Policy Statement and Growth Plan review and the draft ROP for modifications prior to bringing forward any amendments to ensure consistency. 1.5 Add new official plan policy to protect existing rental housing stock from conversion. Gap 4 City Development ■□□ ■■□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Staff are monitoring the changes to the Municipal Act that permit the Minister to make regulations imposing limits and conditions on the powers of a local municipality to prohibit and regulate the demolition and conversion of residential rental properties. Staff does not have a timeline for when the Minister may introduce the regulations. Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 1.6 Add new Official Plan policy which prohibits the demolition of existing rental housing units unless the proposed redevelopment meets specified conditions. Gap 4 City Development ■□□ ■■□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Staff are monitoring the changes to the Municipal Act that permit the Minister to make regulations imposing limits and conditions on the powers of a local municipality to prohibit and regulate the demolition and conversion of residential rental properties. Staff does not have a timeline for when the Minister may introduce the regulations. 1.7 Consider adding new Official Plan policies to implement “inclusionary zoning” in Major Transit Station Areas, following Durham Region’s completion of the “Assessment Report”. Gap 4 City Development ■■□ ■■□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Staff are awaiting completion of the Housing Assessment Report by the Region. Staff will assess the potential impacts of the recent changes to the Planning Act, which limits the use of Inclusionary Zoning, as part of the ongoing work. Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 1.8 Additional Dwelling Units: (a) Review and update the City zoning by-laws and Two- Dwelling Unit By-law to reflect the More Homes, More Choice Act changes to permit Additional Dwelling Units in a detached, semi-detached or townhouse as well as in a building or structure ancillary to a detached house, semi- detached or townhouse. (b) Consider allowing Additional Dwelling Units in rural areas subject to the capacity of well and septic systems. (c) Consider reducing or removing the City’s parking requirement for Additional Dwelling Units located in areas well served by transit. (d) Examine other existing zoning requirements that may present barriers to increasing Additional Dwelling Units within the City. Gaps 2, 4 City Development, Corporate Services (Municipal Law Enforcement) ■■□ ■□□ $ Currently Underway City Development staff have concluded its review of current Official Plan policies and Zoning By-law provisions, including best practices. Public consultation on a city- initiated zoning by-law amendment began in April 2023 with a targeted timeline to report to Council on proposed amendments by mid 2023. Project Website: https://www.pickering.ca/en/city- hall/additional-dwelling- units.aspx Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 1.9 Ensure that the City’s Official Plan policies and zoning regulations do not present barriers to shared living (co-housing, co-living) arrangements in appropriate areas as-of-right. Gaps 1-3 City Development ■□□ $ Completed Staff completed a review and established that there are no barriers to shared living arrangements in the policies of the Pickering Official Plan. 1.10 Consider removing or reducing the minimum requirement for parking spaces for affordable housing and/or supportive housing and allowing developers to propose alternative parking space options. Gap 4 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Work Has Not Commenced 1.11 Consider discouraging “down zoning” high and medium density residential designations to lower density residential designations. Gap 4 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Work Has Not Commenced 1.12 Add an Official Plan policy requiring the submission of an Affordability and Accessibility Analysis as part of a complete application for residential development, subject to criteria. Gaps 1-3 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Completed OPA 46 was recently considered by Council which included the addition of an affordable housing brief under the requirements for Planning Act applications. Affordability Housing Briefs are currently being required as part of complete submission requirements through the Pre- consultation process. Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 2.0 Financial Incentives 2.1 Consider establishing a corporate policy whereby surplus or underutilized City-owned lands or buildings that are not required for municipal purposes, such as for parkland, are first considered for development of affordable rental housing. Gaps 1-3 Corporate Services, Finance ■■□ ■■□ $$ - $$$ Work Has Not Commenced 2.2 Consider waiving fees or providing a grant equivalent to certain development application fees, development charges, property taxes, and/or parkland dedication requirements, for affordable rental, affordable ownership, and/or supportive housing developments on a case-by-case basis. Gaps 1-3 Finance □■□ □■■ $$ - $$$ Work Has Not Commenced Bill 23 will have a direct impact on the action item as the Province has provided exemptions or reductions to development charges (DC’s) as-of-right. Affordable units are exempt from paying DC’s and parkland dedications. Rental units have reduced DC rates based on the number of bedrooms. Staff will need to reassess the impact of the action item based on the Bill 23 changes. Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 2.3 Prioritize and facilitate approvals for projects which provide affordable rental, affordable ownership, supportive housing, and purpose-built rental housing units. Gaps 1-3 City Development, Engineering, Fire ■□□ ■□□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Staff currently prioritize applications that included affordable or rental units on a case by case basis. Staff are exploring options to formalize the prioritization of these applications. Bill 109 introduced application fee refunds if Planning Act timelines are not met. The impact of refunds needs to be reviewed in considering a formal prioritizing of any application to ensure financial risks are mitigated. 2.4 Consider establishing a Housing Reserve Fund which can be funded through a special levy and/or Community Benefit Charge. Gaps 1-3 Finance □■■ □■■ $ Work Has Not Commenced 2.5 Consider undertaking a feasibility study for a Vacant Home Tax. Gaps 1-3 Finance □■□ □■□ $ Work Has Not Commenced Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 3.0 Other 3.1 Encourage developers to consider designing flexible spaces that can accommodate shared living or multi-generational living. Gaps 1, 3 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Staff are reviewing options to engage the development community to design flexible spaces before the pre- consultation process. 3.2 Consider connecting interested developers with experts or consultants in the field of management and operation of affordable, rental housing. Gaps 2 Economic Development, City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Currently Being Reviewed Staff are reviewing the creation of network opportunities to connect the development community with experts in affordable and rental housing 3.3 Provide guidance to developers, not-for-profits and other proponents of affordable rental, affordable ownership and/or supportive housing, on the planning and building approvals processes. Gaps 1-3 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Currently Underway Staff provides guidance through preliminary discussions regarding policy and more formal pre- consultation meetings prior to application submissions. Staff will continue to review what information packages can be created to further assist or educate proponents of the planning process. Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 3.4 Share information with developers about funding and other incentives available to address the City’s housing needs. Gaps 1-3 City Development ■□□ ■□□ $ Work Has Not Commenced 3.5 Consider advocating for the Province to establish a minimum number of accessible units or a percentage of accessible units for major residential development. Gaps 1-3 Corporate Communication s ■□□ ■□□ $ Work Has Not Commenced 3.6 Consider advocating for the school boards to reduce, waive and/or defer their portion of Development Charges for affordable rental housing. Gaps 1, 2 Corporate Communication s ■□□ ■□□ $ Work Has Not Commenced 3.7 Establish a Monitoring Plan that will annually update and review the baseline data set established in the Research and Gap Analysis Report, March 31, 2021, to ensure goals and objectives of the Housing Strategy are being met. Gaps 1-4 City Development ■□□ ■■■ $ Currently Underway Staff are continuously working with Regional and Provincial partners to understand what data sources can be monitored and the most effective means of reporting the data. Monitoring will include tracking affordable and rental housing including existing, in application stage, and approved. (as per Council Resolution #956/22) Action Item Update – 2022 Annual Monitor Report Action Gap # Addressed Lead Department Initial Time Frame New Time Frame Cost 2023 Status Update 3.8 To consider adding a dedicated function, similar to an Office of Affordability, within the City, the scope of work which would include being responsible for implementing the Pickering Housing Strategy & Action Plan 2021-2031, December 22, 2021. Gaps 1-4 $$$ Currently Underway Position approved in the 2023 Budget. Recruitment on-going. A new cost centre for an Office of Affordability, in the City Development Department, will be established through the 2024 Budget process. Appendix II to Report PLN 17-23 Updated Pickering Housing Profile pickering.ca May 5, 2023 Pickering Housing Profile 2022 Update Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 1 Contents 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 3 2.0 Housing Demand ................................................................................................... 4 Population Trends and Projections .............................................................................. 4 Population Age ............................................................................................................ 6 Household Trends and Projections .............................................................................. 6 Age of Household Maintainers ..................................................................................... 7 Number of Household Maintainers .............................................................................. 8 Household by Tenure .................................................................................................. 9 Household Size.......................................................................................................... 10 Household Type......................................................................................................... 11 Household Income ..................................................................................................... 12 Household Income Deciles ........................................................................................ 14 Incedence of Low Income .......................................................................................... 16 3.0 Housing Supply ................................................................................................... 17 Overall Housing Supply ............................................................................................. 17 Age and Condition of Dwellings ................................................................................. 18 New Residential Development ................................................................................... 19 Additional Dwelling Units ........................................................................................... 21 Non-Market Housing Supply ...................................................................................... 22 Senior Housing .......................................................................................................... 24 Long-Term Care Housing .......................................................................................... 25 Community Housing .................................................................................................. 26 Market Housing.......................................................................................................... 29 Vacancy Rates .......................................................................................................... 30 Average Market Rent ................................................................................................. 31 Average House Price ................................................................................................. 31 4.0 Housing Affordability............................................................................................ 34 Household Income Spent on Housing by Tenure ...................................................... 34 Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 2 Core Housing Need ................................................................................................... 35 Housing Suitability ..................................................................................................... 36 Rental Housing Affordability ...................................................................................... 37 Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 3 1.0 Introduction In the summer of 2020 the City of Pickering undertook the Housing Strategy Study with the goal of establishing a strategy and action plan that addresses the need for delivering more lifecycle housing options, including affordable and accessible units, to support changing demographic conditions within the City over the next ten years (2021-2031). The first phase of the Study included a Research and Gap Analysis Report (Research Report), prepared in March 2021, that identified key indicators that contribute to Pickering’s housing profile. Key findings of the Research Report indicated that there is an overall need for more housing options for low and moderate income earners, more affordable rental and ownership housing in a range of unit sizes, and accessible units. The Pickering Housing Profile is a result of continued monitoring of the key indicators identified in the initial Research Report. Monitoring data trends allow staff and Council to identify how the Housing Action Plan is addressing the needs of residents. Pickering’s Housing Profile, contained in sections 2.0 to 4.0 below, will be updated every five years based on the most current Statistics Canada data. The profile will inform the impact of the action items and allow staff and Council to identify additional actions or modify existing actions to respond to changes in Pickering’s Housing Profile. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 4 2.0 Housing Demand Population Trends and Projections In 2021, Pickering’s total population was 99,186, an 8.1% increase since 2016. According to the Pickering Detailed 20 Year Population Forecast, Pickering’s population is expected to grow to 114,536 by 2025, Figure 1. Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Pickering saw little to moderate growth through the early 2000’s. The projections indicate that Pickering’s population growth will increase significantly faster in the coming years, growing by approximately 40% by the year 2035. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 5 Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Durham Region’s population was 696,992 in 2021, displaying a 7.9% growth rate since 2016. Between the years 2016 and 2021, Clarington experienced the largets population growth rate of 10.2% among all area municipalities in Durham Region. Table 1: 2006 – 2021 Durham Region Municipalitiy Population Growth Municipality 2006 % Change 2011 % Change 2016 % Change 2021 Ajax 90,167 21.5% 109,600 9.2% 119,677 5.8% 126,666 Brock 11,979 -6.3% 11,341 2.3% 11,642 7.9% 12,567 Clarington 77,820 8.6% 84,548 8.8% 92,013 10.2% 101,427 Oshawa 141,590 5.7% 149,607 6.6% 159,458 10.0% 175,383 Pickering 87,838 1.0% 88,721 3.4% 91,771 8.1% 99,186 Scugog 21,511 0.1% 21,569 0.1% 21,617 -0.2% 21,581 Uxbridge 19,169 7.6% 20,623 2.7% 21,176 1.8% 21,556 Whitby 111,184 9.7% 122,022 5.2% 128,377 7.9% 138,501 Durham Region 561,258 8.4% 608,124 6.2% 645,862 7.9% 696,867 Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 6 Population Age Population age is based on the division of a population into four age demographics, youth (0-24 years old), young adults (25-44 years old), older adults (45-64 years old), and seniors (65+). Between 2016 and 2021, young adults and seniors displayed significant grow rates of 19.9% and 17.2%, respectively. During the same period, the older adult demographic experienced a decline of 2.5%. Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Household Trends and Projections Demograhic information such as household characteristics provide crucial indication of housing need within a community. In 2021, Pickering reported 33,425 private dwellings. This represents an 8.1% increase to the 30,919 dwellings reported in 2016. Durham Region experienced an increase of private dwellings by 7.9%. The 8.1% increase in private dwellings is the same percentage increase as the increase in Pickering’s population growth over the same time period. 2.50% 19.90% -2.50% 17.20% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Youth (0-24 yrs old) Young Adults (25- 44 yrs old) Older Adults (45- 64 yrs old) Seniors (65+) Figure 3: 2016 & 2021 Population by Age - Pickering # of persons (2016)# of persons (2021)Growth Rates Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 7 28,220 29,330 30,919 33,425 41,310 50,360 59,230 68,010 78,200 88,590 194,670 213,746 227,906 243,048 276,540 313,410 350,010386,710 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 2006 2016 2026 2036 2046 2056 Figure 4: 2006 -2051 Household Projections -Pickering & Durham Region Pickering Durham Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Figure 4 also indicates that the number of private dwellings in Pickering is projected to approximately double by the year 2036. Age of Household Maintainers Statistics Canada defines a household maintainer as an identified individual who pays the rent or mortgage, or the taxes, or the electricity bill, etc., for the dwelling (StatsCan, 2021). Between 2016 and 2021, household maintainers identified as young adults increased by 19.4%, while seniors displayed the highest rate of growth with 22%. The older adult demographic decreased by 4%. The increase in young adult and senior maintainers could lead to a change in the demand of housing types within Pickering to suit those groups needs. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 8 Figure 5 displays household maintainer age trends over the last decade. Since 2011, there have been two noticable changes to household maintainers age trends. Older adults have declined significantly, approximately 9%, and seniors have increased by approximately 7%. Young adults have remained relatively stable, increasing by 1%. Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Number of Household Maintainers The number of single household maintainers has declined by 9% since 2016. In correlation with this trend, the number of two and three household maintainers has increased by 5% and 4%, respectively. This trend could be a result of multi-generational and shared-living housholds becoming more desirable to achieve affordable housing arrangements. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 9 Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Household by Tenure Pickering continues to experience a high rate of home ownership. 85.2% of residents living within private dwellings are owners, and 14.8% are renters. Despite the continuation of high ownership, there has been a slow increase in the percentage of rental households over the last decade. 50% 47% 3% 41% 52% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% % One-Maintainer Household % Two-Maintainer Households % Three-Maintainer Households Figure 6: 2016 & 2021 Percentage of Household Maintainers - Pickering 2016 2021 Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 10 Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Household Size Households of four or more persons continued to represent the majority within Pickering. However, the largest increase in the number of Pickering households by household size, since 2016, was in single person households, with an increase of 11.4%. Table 2: Pickering and Durham 2011–2021 Hosehold Size Trends Household Size Pickering 2011 2016 2021 % Change in Household Size 16'- 21' 1 person 4,510 5,155 5,740 11.4% 2 persons 8,240 8,970 9,715 8.3% 3 persons 5,845 6,085 6,445 5.9% 4+ persons 6,615 10,710 11,525 7.6% Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. 89.1% 10.9% 87.4% 12.6% 85.2% 14.8% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Owner Renter Figure 7: Households by Tenure - Pickering 2006 2016 2021 Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 11 Approximately 25% of the households had 4+ persons in 2011. This proportion increased to about 34% in 2016, and remained consistent in 2021. Table 3: 2011 – 2021 Average Number of Persons Per Household – Pickering and Durham Region Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. The average number of persons per household in Pickering remains 3. This has remained consistent over the past decade. Pickering remains slightly higher than the average across the Region of Durham. Household Type Household type can be a determining factor of wether a dwelling is considered affordable for an individual or family. Several distinct household types include one census families (families with children & families without children), one parent family households, multigenerational households, multiple census family households, one census family household without additional persons, one census family household with additional persons, two or more person non-census family households, and one person family households. In 2021, one census families accounted for 67.5%, whereas, non-census families accounted for 32.5% of households in Pickering. Under the one census family cateogory, families with children made up the largest share of households with 35.5% and families without children represented 21.4% of households. One-person households in Pickering accounted for 17.2%. Multiple census families represented 1.4%, and non-census families accounted for the remaining 2.4% households. Pickering Durham Region 2011 2016 2021 2011 2016 2021 Average number of persons per household 3 2.9 3 2.8 2.8 2.8 Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 12 Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Household Income Household income characteristics are indicators of a resident’s financial capacity to afford housing. According to Statistics Canada, in 2020, the average household income in Pickering was $141,200 and the median household income was $118,000. The average household income has increased approximately 18% since 2015. The average household income and the median household income in Pickering remains slightly higher that the average in Durhamn Region. 2, 5 3 0 4 5 5 22 , 5 4 5 1, 3 6 5 7 9 0 5, 7 4 0 Multigenerational Households Multiple census family households One census family household without additional persons One census family household with additional persons Two or more person non census family households One person family households Figure 10: 2021 Pickering Private Households by Household Type Pickering, 2021 Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 13 Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. $97,967 $109,791 $119,411 $141,200 12.07% 8.76% 18.25% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00% 18.00% 20.00% $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 $160,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Figure 11: 2020 Average Income - Pickering Average Income (2005 - 2020)Log. (Growth Rates) $84,595 $89,796 $99,708 $118,000 6.15% 11.04% 18.35% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Figure 12: 2020 Median Income - Pickering Median Income (2005 - 2020)Log. (Growth Rates) Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 14 Household Income Deciles While average and median household income provide a general sense of a household’s economic capacity, looking at the distribution of income within the local context provides greater detail of the economic capacity of households. Household income deciles distribute all households into ten equal portions of the adjusted after-tax income groups. Each income decile represents 10% of total households. There is a distinct difference between owner and renter incomes. Generally, Pickering has a less substanial share of residents in the lower income deciles than Durham Region. Table 4: Proportion of Income Deciles for the Population - Pickering and Durham Region 2020 Income Deciles Pickering % Share Durham % Share Low Income Decile 1 4.0% 19.4% 5.5% 23.1% Decile 2 6.8% 8.5% Decile 3 8.6% 9.1% Moderate Income Decile 4 9.0% 30.0% 10.4% 31.7% Decile 5 10.2% 10.1% Decile 6 10.8% 11.2% High Income Decile 7 11.7% 50.6% 11.8% 45.2% Decile 8 11.9% 10.9% Decile 9 13.6% 12.3% Decile 10 13.4% 10.2% Source: RISWG custom order of Statistics Canada Census, 2022. Approximately 50% of Pickering’s population is categorized as being within the high income deciles. Over the past five years, there has been a 4% decrease in number of residents in the high income deciles within Pickering. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 15 Table 5: 2020 Pickering Household Income Deciles 2020 Income Deciles Owner Renter All Households Low Income Decile 1 $ 49,200 $ 24,600 $ 42,000 Decile 2 $ 71,000 $ 34,400 $ 63,000 Decile 3 $ 90,000 $ 48,000 $ 81,000 Moderate Income Decile 4 $ 108,000 $ 60,800 $ 100,000 Decile 5 $ 128,000 $ 74,000 $ 118,000 Decile 6 $ 148,000 $ 85,000 $ 139,000 High Income Decile 7 $ 172,000 $ 104,000 $ 164,000 Decile 8 $ 204,000 $ 123,000 $ 194,000 Decile 9 $ 260,000 $ 159,000 $ 250,000 Decile 10 $ < $260,001 $ < $159,001 $ < $250,001 Source: RISWG custom order of Statistics Canada Census, 2022. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 16 Incedence of Low Income The prevalence of low income in a community is measured using Statistics Canada’s Low-Income Measurement – After Tax (“LIM-AT”). LIM-AT is a fixed percentage (50%) of median adjusted after-tax income of households observed at the individual level, where “adjusted” reflects that a household’s needs increase as the number of household members increase. In Canada, a household is considered to be low income if its after-tax income is less than half of the median after-tax income of all households. In 2020, the percentage of Durham Region’s population considered to be of low income, based on the LIM-AT, was 30.3%. In 2020, 5.3% of the population (5,215 residents) in Pickering were considered to be of low income on LIM-AT. This was a improvement from 2015, when Pickering’s low income measurement, after tax, was recorded to be 8.4% (7,680 residents). Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Of the total low-income proportion of Pickering’s 2020 population, 54.3% (2,830) of individuals were 18-64 years old, 26.3% were between 0-17 years old, and 19.5% were seniors, 65 years and older. 20.4% 6.0% 65.6% 14.1% 20.2% 6.5% 64.0% 16.2% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 0 to 17 years 0 to 5 years 18 to 64 years 65 years and over Figure 13: 2015 & 2020 Incidence of Low Income by Age Group - Pickering 2015 2020 Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 17 3.0 Housing Supply Overall Housing Supply Pickering’s housing supply (private dwellings) experienced a growth of 8.1% since 2016. Pickering had a total of 33,425 private dwellings in 2021. Single detached homes accounted for 60% of constructed dwellings, followed by apartments accounting for 18%, townhouses 14%, and semi-detached 8%. Figure 14 below displays the percentage of dwelling type constructed between 2016 and 2021. Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 18 Age and Condition of Dwellings 77.5% of dwellings in Pickering were built prior to 2000, while 22.5% of dwellings have been built since 2001. Compared to other municipalities, Pickering has a larger share of housing built before the year 2000. Nevertheless, the City’s development has increased in recent years with intensification in the City centre, and new greenfield development areas, like the Seaton Community. The relatively slow rate of development between 2001 and 2021, reflects the impacts of the recession in the mid 2000’s, and the limited supply of large tracts of readily developable, serviced land, in South Pickering. The planning and servicing of the Seaton Community took over 10 years before building permits could be issued. Over the last 10 years, the City has been experiencing more medium and higher density development in South Pickering, generally on smaller and constrained parcels of land. Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Despite having a larger percentage of housing stock constructed prior to 2000, the condition of housing in Pickering remains good. Approxiamtely 3.7% is identified as needing major repairs, compared to approximately 4.5% across Durham Region. 2,070 8,350 8,955 6,540 1,680 1,315 1,675 2,845 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 1960 or before 1961 to 1980 1981 to 1990 1991 to 2000 2001 to 2005 2006 to 2010 2011 to 2015 2016 to 2021 Nu m b e r o f D w e l l i n g s Time Period Figure 15: Periods of Dwelling Construction - Pickering Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 19 Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. New Residential Development Data collected from Pickering building permits, as well as site plan and subdivision applications provide additional insight to the current and future supply of housing. Building permit data identifies a shift towards townhouse construction in recent years, see Figure 16. Since 2017, townhouses have accounted for approximately 50% of building permits issued. In 2018, apartments accounted for 19.7% of all approved permits, and in 2021, 22.4% of the total approved building permits. Apartment buildings could see a larger share of the amount of permits issued each year as strategic growth areas continue to intensify. 32,220 232,485 1,205 10,565 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Pickering Durham Nu m b e r o f D w e l l i n g s Figure 16: 2021 Condition of Dwellings - Pickering & Durham Region Only Regular Maintainence and Minor Repairs Needed Major Repairs Needed Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 20 Source: City of Pickering, AMANDA Database, 2022. Source: City of Pickering, AMANDA Database, 2022. 35.5% 77.1% 59.4%64.5% 41.7%49.1%45.4% 19.7% 22.4% 64.5% 22.9%20.9% 35.5% 58.3% 28.5% 54.6% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Figure 17: 2016 - 2021 Share of Units by Dwelling Type Issused by Building Permits Townhouse Apartment Single and semi-detached Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 21 Additional Dwelling Units “Additional Dwelling Units” (ADUs) are also referred to as basement apartment, accessory units; in-law suites, or granny flats. The average number of approved “additional dwelling units” per year in Pickering from 2005 to 2022 was 46. Source: City of Pickering, AMANDA Database, 2022. Pickering is currently in the process of amending the Official Plan and Zoining By-laws to implement policy changes introduced through Bill 23. It is anticipated that ADUs could see an increase in the coming years due to recent changes in provincial legislation and the amendments to Pickering’s Official Plan and Zoning By-laws. The legislative changes permit a total of 3 dwellings on a lot. 57 31 20 36 28 33 32 58 65 57 58 66 47 46 43 38 49 71 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Figure 19: Approved Additional Dwelling Units (ADUs) - Pickering Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 22 Non-Market Housing Supply Emergency Transitional Homes In 2021, Durham Region conducted a Point-in-Time (PiT) Count and Registry Week to collect data on individuals and families in Durham Region experiencing homelessness. The results of this study aim to better assist service providers in planning services and measuring progress towards ending homelessness in the community. There are 11 licensed service providers across Durham Region. It should be noted that none of these service providers are located in the City of Pickering. Nevertheless, these services are available to Pickering residents. Table 6: Emergency Shelters and Transitional Housing Providers in Durham, 2021 Service Provider – Shelters & Transitional Housing Target Population Bed Capacity Joanne's House Youth 16-24 13 Cornerstone Community Association Seniors with extraordinary medical needs; single men and children - victims of abuse 40 Cornerstone Community Association Motel Program Single fathers, families 3 for seniors; unlimited for others Violence Against Women: Bethesda House (Bowmanville): Denise House (Oshawa): Herizon House (Ajax): Y's Wish (Oshawa): Women and children - victims of abuse 18 27 30 15 Muslim Welfare Home Women and children 45 Muslim Welfare Home Motel Program Women with male children; women with physical disabilities 12 Durham Youth Housing Youth 16-24 13 YMCA 6 Durham Mental Health Services Crisis Beds – Ajax Individuals with mental challanges (16 years old+) 6 Durham Mental Health Services Crisis Beds – Whitby 8 Durham Mental Health Services Crisis Beds – Oshawa 6 Source: Durham 2018 PIT Count Report Vacancy Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 23 The PiT study found the number of people experiencing homelessness has increased significantly from 291 in 2018, to 573 in 2021. The study indicated the increase can be attributed to a number of factors including: • Volunteers were able to cover more areas to count; • Consistent population growth; • High rent costs; and • The lack of available houses for rent in Durham 332 individuals participated in the PiT study. Of the total participants, 40% of individuals were unsheltered, 28% were staying in a homeless shelter, 5% were staying in a hotel/motel, 16% were staying in a transitional shelter, and 11% were staying in someone else’s home. Most respondents in the PiT study were male. Other groups, such as youth aged 16 to 24 years old, veterans, immigrants, indigenous people, LGBTQ+, and refugees or refugee claimants, were also represented in the PiT study. Source: Durham 2021 PIT Count Report Vacancy Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 24 Senior Housing There are total of 3,161 seniors housing or retirement units in 26 residences in Durham Region. In 2021, a total of 2,844 residents (out of a population of 46,903 seniors,75 and older, in Durham Region) were living in these types of units, representing a 6.1% capture rate. Capture rate represents the percentage of the senior population within a survey area living in designated senior housing and retirement home units. In 2021, the highest capture rate (14.7%) was recorded in Prescott & Russell, Ontario. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), and many larger metropolitan areas, generally experience a lower capture rate, indicating a lower supply of seniors housing or affordability. This could be due to the higher land prices leading to lower profitability when providing senior housing developments. Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation – Seniors Housing Survey- Ontario, 2021 The vacancy rate of seniors housing within Durham more than doubled from 8.3% in 2019 to 18.4 % in 2021. This substantial increase may have been due to increased monthly rental costs. The 2021 average monthly rent for senior housing units in Durham was $4,293, a 3.6% increase in the average rental cost of $4,144 in 2020. The average rent of seniors housing has generally continued to increase. Rent costs for bachelor and studio units for seniors experienced the largest increase between 2020 to 2021, approximately 6.1%. The one exception to the increases in rent was for two bedroom units, which decreased by 7.9% between 2020 and 2021. This could be due to the cost of two-bedroom units being significantly higher than the total average rent. The price of rent for two-bedroom units could make them unaffordable to the majority of residents, which leads to less demand for these units, resulting in a decrease in rent. 46,903 2,844 Figure 21: Senior Housing Capture Rate for Durham Region Total Number of Senior 75+ Total Number of Seniors Using these Spaces Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 25 Another cause for increased vacancy rates may have been the effects of COVID-19, and an aversion to congregate living situations. Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation – Seniors Housing Survey- Ontario, 2021. Long-Term Care Housing According to the Ontario Long-Term Care Association, there are currently 627 licensed and approved long-term care homes in Ontario. The average waitlist time to obtain placement in a long-term care facility is 147 days. In Pickering there are two privately operated long-term care homes, with a total bed capacity of 357 beds, and a total waitlist of 639 individuals, as of November 30, 2022. In 2022, Lakeridge Health opened a new long-term care home in Ajax with 320 beds. Lakeridge Gardens is the first long-term care home operated by Lakeridge Health in Durham Region. The additional beds increase the number of beds in long-term care homes operated by the Region and Lakeridge Health to 1,524. There are no Regional or Lakeridge Health operated beds currently located in Pickering. However, the Region recently submitted a site plan application for a 200 bed long-term care home in Seaton. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 26 Table 7: Durham Region Long Term Care Homes Long Term Care Home Municipality Bed Capacity Hillsdale Estate* Oshawa 300 Hillsdale Terraces* Oshawa 200 Fairview Lodge* Whitby 198 Lakeview Manor* Brock 149 LakeRidge Garden** Ajax 320 Bay Ridges*** Pickering 124 Orchard Villa*** Pickering 233 Source: Long-term Care in Ontario, Government of Ontario, 2023. *Region of Durham Operated Long-Term Care Home **Lakeridge Health Operated Long-Term Care Home ***Privately Owned Long-Term Care Home Community Housing Community housing, previously referred to as subsidized housing, typically refers to housing that receives subsidies from one of or combination of the Federal, Provincial, or Regional governments. The Region of Durham, as the Municipal Service System Manager, provides funds and administers housing units owned by non-profit housing organizations, housing co-operatives, and other housing providers. Durham Access to Social Housing, (“DASH”), manages the wait list for rent-geared-to- income and accessible units at community housing properties and at some private properties within the Region. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 27 In 2021, there were 675 community housing units located in Pickering. The number of community housing units have remained consistent in Pickering over the last decade despite an increase in demand. Table 8: Community Housing Properties in Pickering Community Housing Properties – Pickering* Address Mandate Units Duffin's Creek Co- op 1555 Finch Avenue Families 75 Fairport Lodge 330 Foxglove Avenue Seniors 36 Highbush Village 1840 Westcreek Drive Families 46 Orchard Valley Court 1580 Kingston Road Families 115 Rougemount Co- op 400 Kingston Road Families 105 Sarah McDonald's Place 1467 Whites Road Families 63 St. Martin's Centre 1201 St Martins Drive Seniors 58 Villa Valeau 1910 Faylee Crescent Seniors 36 William Peak Co- op 1990 Whites Road Families, Seniors 141 Source: Durham Region 2023; Durham Access To Social Housing Website. Table 9: Types of Community Housing Waitlist Applicants Pickering Municipality Seniors Singles Couples Families Total Pickering 137 115 7 240 499 Source: Durham Region 2023; Durham Access To Social Housing Website. There are 499 residents with Pickering addresses on the DASH waiting list. Pickering residents on the DASH waitlist represent 6% of all residents in Durham Region on the waitlist. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 28 Source: Durham Region 2023; Durham Access To Social Housing Website. 3,585 3,650 3,922 3,926 4,260 4,315 4,658 5,209 5,422 5,730 6,073 7,075 6,555 7,506 8,516 8,284 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Figure 24: 2006 - 2021 Community Housing Units and Wait List Applicants - Durham Region Wait List Applicants Community Housing Units (4,481) Source: Durham Region 2023; Durham Access To Social Housing Website. Oshawa2,302 Whitby 841 Ajax 793 Pickering 499 Clarington 431 Brock 106 Scugog 98 Uxbridge 82 Figure 23: Number of DASH Applicants By Municipality (December 31, 2022) Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 29 Across Durham Region there were 8,284 applicants on the DASH wait list for rent geared income (RGI) units in 2021. While the numbers each year may vary, there has been a general increase in demand over the years, while the number of RGI units has remained relatively unchanged at 4,481. There are now more than double the demand for units than currently available. Market Housing Primary Rental Market The rental market plays an important role in meeting the housing needs of residents. The rental market can offer benefits such as flexibility in dwelling types, location, fewer maintenance costs, and relief from a large up-front cost of a down payment required for home ownership. The private rental market consists of the primary rental market (often referred to as purpose-built rental buildings) and the secondary rental market. The secondary rental market represents self-contained units, which were not purposely built for the rental market, but are currently being rented out. It is generally acknowledge that the condominium apartment market has acted largely as the rental accommodation supplier for many years within the Greater Toronto Area. CMHC conducts an annual Rental Market Survey. The survey consists of units in primary rental buildings with at least three rental units, which have been on the market for at least three months. Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation – Rental Market Survey, Toronto 2022. 343 2 7 1 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 3+ Bedrooms 2 Bedroom 1 Bedroom Bachelor Studios Figure 25: Pickering's Primary Rental Market Units By Size Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 30 In 2021, there were 353 primary rental units within Pickering, consisting of townhouses and apartments. The number of primary rental units has remained unchanged since 2007. Of the total number of primary rental units, the majority of them have 3 bedrooms or more. Vacancy Rates According to CMHC, a vacancy rate of 3.0% is identified as a healthy vacancy rate, representing a balance between rental housing supply and demand. Vacancy rates are based upon CMHC’s Annual Rental Markey Survey. A unit is considered vacant if it is physically unoccupied and available for immediate rental at the time of the survey. CMHC reports the consolidated vacancy rate for Pickering, Ajax, and Uxbridge (Zone 28) under the Toronto Census Metropolian Area (CMA). In 2022, the total apartment vacancy (including all bedroom types) for Zone 28 was 0.5%. Data for 2022 shows continued low vacancy rates in all bedroom categories. The vacancy rate for Zone 28 has continued to decrease since 2016. Pickering’s overall vacancy rate can be better captured by looking at the vacancy rate of three-bedroom apartments, as they account for 97% of Pickering primary rental units. As of 2022, the average vacancy rate of three-bedroom apartements was 0.3%. Trends show a consistent decrease in vacancy rates since 2016, see Figure 26. The overall low apartment vacancy rates suggest that there is a need for purpose built rental units in Pickering. Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation – Rental Market Survey, Toronto 2022. 1 3.9 1.1 0.7 2.4 1.7 1.4 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 ** 9.5 ** 8.3 ** ** ** 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Figure 26: 2015 - 2021 Private Apartment Vacancy Rates (%) by Bedroom Types - Pickering/Ajax/Uxbridge 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedrooms+Total Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 31 Average Market Rent In October 2021, the average market rent for all units in the primary rental market for Zone 28 was $1,394, representing a slight decrease of 1.2% from 2020’s average market rent of $1,412. In 2021, the average market rent of a one-bedroom apartment was $965, two-bedroom apartment $1,302, and three or more bedroom apartment $1,563. Table 10: Average Primary Rent by Unit Type for Pickering/Ajax/Uxbridge Year 1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 2018 $953 $1,248 $1,397 2019 $982 $1,237 $1,489 2020 $1,198 $1,362 $1,506 2021 $965 $1,302 $1,563 Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation – Rental Market Survey, Toronto 2022. Average House Price In 2022, there were 28,435 owned homes in Pickering, accounting for 85.5% of all dwellings in the City. According to 2022 Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) data, the average resale price of all home types in Pickering was $1,158,753, a 12.5% increase from $1,029,885 in 2021. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 32 Source: Toronto Real Estate Board, Market Watch, December 2022. $1,351,351 $983,836 $1,031,014 $789,291 $611,833 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 $1,200,000 $1,400,000 Single Detached Semi Detached Townhouses Condo Townhouses Condo Apartment Figure 27: Average Resale Price of Homes in Pickering Average Price All Typ Resale Price Linear (Average Price All Typ) Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 33 In comparison, the average resale price of all homes across Durham Region in 2022 was $1,061,986, an increase of 3.0% from $1,029,885 in 2021. Table 11: Annual Average Resale Price for all housing types in Pickering Year Average Resale Price Annual Resale Increase 2016 $700,692 26.64% 2017 $656,104 -6.8% 2018 $690, 719 5.0% 2019 $699,087 1.2% 2020 $806,350 15.3% 2021 $1,029,885 21.7% 2022 $1,158,753 11.1% Source: Toronto Real Estate Board, Market Watch, December 2022. Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 34 4.0 Housing Affordability Household Income Spent on Housing by Tenure For the purpose of this report, affordable housing means annual housing costs that do not exceed 30% of gross household income. Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. In 2020, there were 28,435 owner households in Pickering. The proportion of owner households spending more than 30% of their income on shelter costs within Pickering has remained consistent since 2010, decreasing slighty to 21.7% in 2020. In 2020, there were 4,950 tenant households in Pickering. Between 2015 and 2020 the number of tenants spending more than 30% of its income on shelter costs decreased by 7.4% to 38.4%. Despite the decrease from 2015 to 2020 there is still an increase in the number of renter households spending more than 30% since 2010. 22.4% 36.7% 22.2% 45.8% 21.7% 38.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% Owner's spending more than 30% on shelter Tenants spending more than 30% on shelter Figure 28: Owner & Tenant Households 2010 2015 2020 Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 35 Core Housing Need A household is considered to be in ‘core housing need’ if its characteristics do not meet one or more of the adequacies; suitability, affordability, and if the owner or tenant is spending 30% or more of their before-tax income to access acceptable local housing. As of 2020, 10% (3,330 households) of Pickering’s total number of private households were considered to be within core need. Of the 3,330 households identified to be in core need, 25.3% were tenant households and 7.7% were owner households. Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. 3,330 29,265 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 In core need Not in Core need Figure 29: Pickering Core Housing Need Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 36 Housing Suitability ‘Housing suitability’ refers to whether a dwelling has an adequate number of bedrooms for the size and composition of a household, as definded by CMHC. Of all total occupied private dwellings within Pickering (33,425), 31,650 are deemed suitable, and 1,775 are not suitable. Source: Statistics Canada, 2022. Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. 31,650 1,775 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Suitable Not Suitable Figure 30: 2021 Pickering - Housing suitability Suitable Not Suitable Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 37 Rental Housing Affordability Table 12 displays a cross reference of 2020 renter income deciles and maximum affordable rent. The maximum affordable rent is determined by using 30% of the indicated income. Renter households would need to be within the 5th income decile to afford the average rent for any unit types. Although the overall renter income has increased since 2015, individuals earning a minimum wage or within the first two income deciles were not able to afford any primary market units in 2020. Table 12: Average Market Rents in the Primary Market Compared to Affordable Rents Based on Renter Income Deciles (Pickering, 2020) 2020 Income Deciles Renter Income Maximum Affordable Rent Average Primary Market Rent 2020 All Types Bachelor 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom 3 Bedroom Low Income Decile 1 $24,600 $615 N N N N N Decile 2 $34,400 $860 N N N N N Decile 3 $48,000 $1,200 N $1,138 N N N Moderate Income Decile 4 $60,800 $1,520 $1,452 Y $1,356 N N Decile 5 $74,000 $1,850 Y Y Y $1,547 $1,721 Decile 6 $85,000 $2,125 Y Y Y Y Y High Income Decile 7 $104,000 $2,600 Y Y Y Y Y Decile 8 $123,000 $3,075 Y Y Y Y Y Decile 9 $159,000 $3,975 Y Y Y Y Y Minimum Wage $29,640 $741 N N N N N Source: RISWG custom order of Statistics Canada Census, 2022. Source:TREB, Market Watch, December 2022. Y: Yes, can afford Average Market Rent N: No cannot afford Average Market Rent Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 38 Table 13 displays a cross reference of 2020 renter income deciles and maximum affordable rent for the secondary rental market. Renter households would need to be within the 7th income decile to afford the average rent for any unit types. To afford a 1 bedroom in the secondary market, apartment renters would need to be within 6th income decile. In order to afford a 2 bedroom apartment, renters would need to be within the 7th income decile. Table 13: Average Market Rents in the Secondary Market Compared to Affordable Rents Based on Renter Income Deciles (Pickering, 2020) 2020 Income Deciles Renter Income Maximum Affordable Rent Average Secondary Market Rent 2020 All Types 1 Bedroom 2 Bedroom Low Income Decile 1 $24,600 $615 N N N Decile 2 $34,400 $860 N N N Decile 3 $48,000 $1,200 N N N Moderate Income Decile 4 $60,800 $1,520 N N N Decile 5 $74,000 $1,850 N N N Decile 6 $85,000 $2,125 $2,122 $1,858 N High Income Decile 7 $104,000 $2,600 Y Y $2,385 Decile 8 $123,000 $3,075 Y Y Y Decile 9 $159,000 $3,975 Y Y Y Minimum Wage $29,640 $741 N N N Source: RISWG custom order of Statistics Canada Census, 2022. Source:TREB, Market Watch, December 2022. Y: Yes, can afford Average Market Rent N: No cannot afford Average Market Rent Pickering Housing Strategy Updated Pickering Profile 39 Table 14, below, shows the top range of the estimated 2021 household income deciles as well as the house price that each decile can afford, based on spending 30% of income on housing costs and a 5% down payment. Owner households would need to be within the 9th income decile to afford the average resale for any house types. To afford the average resale price of a condominum apartment, which is the most affordable ownership housing option, owners would need to be within the 7th decile. Table 14: Average Resale House Prices (Pickering) Compared to Affordable House Prices Based on Estimated 2022 Household Income Deciles (Pickering) 2020 Income Deciles Household Income Maximum Affordable House Price Average Resale House Prices (December 2022) All Types Single Detached Semi- Detached Row / Townhouse Condo Apartment Low Income Decile 1 $49,200 $160,554 N N N N N Decile 2 $71,000 $244,362 N N N N N Decile 3 $90,000 $326,515 N N N N N Moderate Income Decile 4 $108,000 $400,975 N N N N N Decile 5 $128,000 $478,768 N N N N N Decile 6 $148,000 $563,182 N N N N N High Income Decile 7 $172,000 $664,106 N N N N $598,724 Decile 8 $204,000 $801,781 N N $777,000 $746,491 Y Decile 9 $260,000 $1,031,345 $806,350 $999,500 Y Y Y Source: RISWG custom order of Statistics Canada Census, 2022. Source:TREB, Market Watch, December 2022. Source: Region of Durham Data, 2023 Y: Yes, can afford Average Market Rent N: No cannot afford Average Market Rent pickering.ca The City of Pickering One The Esplanade Pickering, ON L1V 6K7 905.420.4660 or 1.866.683.2760 Your City. Right Now. pickering.ca