HomeMy WebLinkAboutPLN 45-21Report to Council
Report Number: PLN 45-21 Date: December 13, 2021
From: Kyle Bentley
Director, City Developments & CBO
Subject: Envision Durham – Community Areas Urban Land Needs Technical Report
- File: A-2100-020
Recommendation:
1. That Council endorse the Staff Comments contained in Section 2.2 of Report PLN 45-21
as the City’s formal comments on the Envision Durham Community Area Urban Land
Needs Technical Report, October 1, 2021; and
2. That the appropriate City of Pickering staff be authorized to take the necessary actions as indicated in this report.
Executive Summary: The Region of Durham released the Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report (Community Areas Report) on October 1, 2021, and requested comments by November 1, 2021. The Community Areas Report is the final of four technical
papers to be released as part of the Envision Durham’s Growth Management Land Needs
Assessment exercise. Given the short comment period (30 days) for these technical reports, staff informed the Region that the City’s comments with respect to the Community Areas Report will only be available after Council has considered this report. Staff’s comments on the Community Areas Report are outlined in Section 2.2 of this report. Staff is seeking Council’s
endorsement of the comments, and that a copy of Council’s resolution and Report PLN 45-21
be forwarded to the Region for consideration.
Financial Implications: This report has no financial implications for the City.
1. Background:
The Region of Durham is undertaking a Growth Management Study (GMS), as part of Envision Durham, the Region’s Municipal Comprehensive Review process. The first
phase of the GMS consists of a Land Needs Assessment (LNA) to determine the amount of settlement area boundary expansion that may be required to accommodate the future population and job growth to 2051. The LNA is being presented through the release of the following four technical reports:
• The Region-Wide Growth Analysis;
• The Housing Intensification Study;
• The Employment Strategy; and
• The Community Area Urban Land Needs.
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Subject: Envision Durham – Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report Page 2
The first technical report, the Region-Wide Growth Analysis, released on July 2, 2021,
was commented on through staff-to-staff comments in a letter to the Region on
August 11, 2021. The staff comments were submitted to, and endorsed by, Council on September 27, 2021 (Corr. 41-21).
The second technical report, the Housing Intensification Study Technical Report, released on September 3, 2021, was commented on by staff through Report PLN 40-21,
and endorsed by Council on October 25, 2021 as the City’s formal comments
(Resolution #716/21).
The third technical report, the Employment Strategy Technical Report, released on September 24, 2021, was commented on by staff through Report PLN 42-21, and endorsed by Council on November 22, 2021 as the City’s formal comments
(Resolution #737/21).
On October 1, 2021, the Region released the fourth and final technical report, the Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report (Community Areas Report). The Community Areas Report can be accessed through the following hyperlink:
https://www.durham.ca/en/regional-government/resources/Documents/Council/CIP-
Reports/CIP-Reports-2021/2021-INFO-100.pdf
Regional staff will be preparing a Land Needs Assessment Recommendations (Summary) Report, compiling the key outcomes, technical analysis, and related recommendations contained in the four technical reports. The Summary Report will be presented to Regional Planning and Economic Development Committee at a future date, to be confirmed by the Region. City staff will, at that time, bring forward a
recommendation report to Pickering’s Planning & Development Committee, providing the City’s formal comments on the Region’s Land Needs Assessment Recommendations (Summary) Report. Currently, the Region is working on preparing a number of different development scenarios to help further assess the appropriateness of the planned population and jobs targets and area required for expansion of the urban area boundary
to accommodate the forecasted growth for the Region.
2. Discussion:
2.1 The Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report
The purpose of the Community Areas Report is to present the existing state, current
trends, and long-term development potential of “Designated Greenfield Areas” through
2051. “Designated Greenfield Areas” (DGA) is specifically defined in the provincial Growth Plan and generally means lands within the urban area boundary that are outside the built-up area. In Pickering, it encompasses all lands within the urban area boundary north of the Canadian Pacific Railway line.
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Key outcomes of the Community Areas Report include a proposed density target for
Designated Greenfield Areas, and consultant recommendations on new urban area land
required to accommodate residential units and population-related jobs to 2051, referred to as “Community Areas” in the provincial Growth Plan.
The key findings of the Community Areas Report are the following:
• Within Durham Region, there are approximately 5,500 hectares (13,600 acres) of
DGA lands (net of allowable take-outs, such as natural heritage features). As of 2019, approximately 1,190 hectares (2,940 acres) of this total were developed, and approximately 4,320 hectares (10,660 acres) were vacant. In Pickering, DGAs are currently comprised of lands in Seaton and a very small parcel in the northeast part of Duffin Heights.
• The Growth Plan establishes a minimum density target to be achieved in the DGA of 50 people and jobs combined per hectare. Since 2006, the Region’s DGA has nearly achieved the minimum DGA density target of 50 people and jobs combined per hectare through the construction of predominantly low density housing.
• The Region anticipates approximately 105,800 new housing units to be accommodated on DGA lands within the 2021 to 2051 planning horizon. Based on an analysis of approved and draft approved development plans, pending development applications and market trends, the consultant’s recommended DGA density target
by 2051 for Durham Region is 64 people and jobs combined per developable hectare for all designated Community Area DGA lands.
• As reported on in the Employment Strategy Technical Report, the Region considered 45 Employment Area conversion requests covering an area of 699 hectares. In total,
Employment Area sites totaling 208 developable hectares are recommended for conversion to Community Area lands across the Region’s DGA. It should be noted that none of these requests for conversions within the DGA were in Pickering. Employment Area conversions in the DGA reduce the existing designated Employment Area land supply and increase the need for new DGA Employment
Area land.
• Based on the evaluation conducted by the Region and their consultant, the Community Area Report indicates there is currently insufficient urban area land supply within the region to accommodate forecasted people and jobs (352,000)
across the region by 2051 within the existing DGA lands. It is estimated that the Region will require approximately 750 developable hectares (1,850 acres) of additional DGA land to accommodate the Growth Plan’s forecasted growth of approximately 49,700 people and jobs across the Region’s DGA by 2051.
• The recommended DGA density target for Durham Region is 64 people and jobs per
developable hectare (P&J/ha) for all designated DGA lands. To achieve this average DGA density target of 64 P&J/ha, the Seaton Community will need to develop at a density of 89 P&J/ha by 2051, whereas it is currently being developed at a density of 81 P&J/ha, and the rest of the Durham Region DGA lands will have to be planned at
an average density of 60 P&J/ha.
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2.2 Staff Comments
Staff is generally in agreement with the methodology employed by the Region to
evaluate the existing state, current trends, and long-term development potential of DGAs contained within the Community Areas Report. However, a number of aspects and technical concerns have been identified, which are elaborated on below.
a. The title of the Technical Paper, “Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report” is misleading as the Technical Paper only deals with DGAs. The definition
of “Community Areas” on page 13 of the Report defines these areas broadly as “areas where most of the housing required to accommodate the forecasted population will be located, as well as most population-related jobs, most office jobs and some employment land employment jobs". For greater clarity, it is
recommended the Region refer to Designated Greenfield Areas or DGA
Community Areas rather than Community Areas in reference to this work.
b. On page 5 of the Report, it would appear that the sentence may be missing the following words, “In contrast, recommended conversion of DGA Employment Area sites to Community Area reduce the need for new DGA Community Area land
that would have otherwise been required as additional urban land.” Clarification is
required.
c. Staff is in agreement with the statement on page 7 of the Report that “To ensure that existing and new DGA lands are able to evolve as complete communities, these areas will need to be planned to accommodate a balance of people and
jobs”. The Report references providing a variety of housing forms as a key
consideration. However, staff suggest that there also be emphasis or acknowledgement on jobs, robust transportation options, infrastructure and sustainability considerations as being paramount considerations in planning for DGAs.
d. Further, development within the DGAs is contingent upon servicing expansions. As
indicated in previous staff comments on the Proposed Policy Direction Report, it is recommended that as part of the Region’s Growth Management work, servicing be prioritized by the Region, as well as a longer term capital plan which will provide greater certainty around phasing and when DGA lands might be developable.
Further, there is a need for amenities such as parkland, schools, transit, and
commercial/employment etc. to be front loaded to communities to support the achievement of complete communities. Often these amenities are not developed until much later, or not at all. Development of DGAs should be undertaken in a coordinated and orderly fashion to facilitate complete communities at every stage
of build out.
e. Figure 3-1 on page 16 of the Report shows the breakdown of Total Designated Greenfield Area in Durham. While Pickering has the largest gross hectares of DGA land (approximately 3,080 hectares) of all Durham municipalities, Pickering lags behind most of the other lakeshore municipalities in net developable DGA at
approximately 1,200 hectares or 16% by comparison to Whitby (1,730 hectares or
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Subject: Envision Durham – Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report Page 5
22%), Clarington (1,630 hectares or 23%), and Oshawa (1,540 hectares or 24%),
respectively. Pickering also lags behind Whitby (530 hectares) and Clarington
(390 hectares) in Gross Developable Employment Lands at approximately 320 hectares.
Staff recommend it would have been helpful to have the net developable Employment Lands area included in this figure. Staff expect that, through the
Region’s subsequent evaluation on allocating population and employment growth
that Pickering’s allocation of additional DGA will be reflective of the market demands and proximity to Toronto, as Pickering is the first municipality immediately east of the City of Toronto.
f. The Report indicates on page 18 that all DGA areas in Pickering (21%) are
classified as vacant, representing 875 developable hectares of land within the
Seaton community and approximately 5 developable hectares of land within the Duffin Heights DGA, but indicates that development has been progressing in Seaton. Please clarify this contradiction.
Furthermore, staff requests clarification on where the 21% figure comes from as
Figure 3-2 indicates an allocation of 16%. It is recommended that the data be
updated to include development that has taken place in Seaton since 2019, since Figure 3-3 indicates 100% of the lands in Pickering being vacant. It is recommended that the latest data be factored into evaluation and decision-making as additional land beyond what has been indicated may be required due to this updated
information not being considered in the growth calculations.
g. The Report indicates in Figure 3-5 on page 20, that 770 hectares of the 880 hectares of DGA in Pickering are Approved (registered but unbuilt or in the process of being built out), and Draft Approved (Category 1). Staff note that Figure 3-6 on page 21 shows vacant lands in Pickering, including lands which are parks or golf courses.
While these uses are not eligible to be taken out of the calculation as are other
uses like natural areas, they may be unlikely to contribute to population and jobs targets during the planning horizon. Staff suggest these factors be taken into consideration, along with recognition that Approved and Draft Approved applications may still change until such time as they are built. This may result in
the need for more land to be added to the urban area boundary.
h. The Report indicates that in accordance with the Central Pickering Development Plan (CPDP), Seaton is planned to reach 61,000 people and 30,500 jobs by 2031 and ultimately achieve a buildout population and employment target of 70,000 and 35,000, respectively. Based on these targets, the Region indicates that to achieve
this 2031 CPDP target of 61,000 people and corresponding portion of Community
Area employment prior to 2051, the Seaton Community will have to develop at a minimum of 89 persons and jobs per hectare (P&J/ha). If this planned 2031 target in Seaton is achieved by 2051, and the density of remaining vacant lands outside of Seaton increase relative to current approved/draft approved plans to an average
of 67 P&J/ha, the Region has indicated it is likely that the Durham DGA will be able
to achieve an overall average density of approximately 64 P&J/ha by 2051 including Seaton and 60 P&J/ha excluding Seaton.
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Subject: Envision Durham – Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report Page 6
Staff note that there is a significant difference between 89 P&J/ha projected for
Seaton and the minimum of 50 P&J/ha required by the Growth Plan for DGAs, and
recommended new targets of 64 P&J/ha for areas outside of Seaton. Contextually, Seaton is similar to much of the other DGAs in the lakeshore municipalities in Durham. Expecting this average density to further increase to 89 P&J/ha is questionable given the preference for lower density housing forms, lack of higher
order public transit, and direction for 50% of new growth to be within the built
boundary, which make increased densities in Seaton less palatable. Accordingly, staff recommend that the Region review this projection. Realization of the long term P&J/ha for Seaton as well as the housing mix, and updating of the data to take into account development that has occurred since 2019, will likely result in the
need for additional DGA lands.
i. Further to the above comment, staff would like to better understand the rationale for recommending a higher target than the required minimum of 50 P&J/ha for DGAs. Market conditions are referenced in Section 4.4 of the Report on page 30. However, there are no references to data sources. The Report indicates that:
• developed DGA lands accommodate a housing mix of 82% low-density, 15% medium-density and 3% high-density dwellings;
• Category 1 applications are currently planned to achieve a housing mix of 46% low density, 36% medium-density and 18% high-density dwellings; and
• the remaining vacant DGA lands are forecast to accommodate a unit mix of 26% low-density, 55% medium-density and 19% high-density dwellings.
The unit shift, particularly for low-density residential, from the developed DGA
lands and the vacant lands represents a significant shift, that has not been
adequately explained. Staff request further information on how the forecasted mix was determined for the vacant DGA lands. It is possible that the significant number of Category 1 applications in Seaton may be skewing the housing mix numbers noted above (46% low density, 36% medium density, 18% high density) with a
greater proportion of medium and higher density to achieve the CPDP targets. This
may not be reflective of the market demands outside of Seaton.
Generally speaking, the DGA areas do not contain the same robust, higher order transit systems as the built-up area to provide the necessary transportation infrastructure and mix of uses needed to support a significant shift to higher density
housing forms. It is recommended that the Region consider establishing a more
realistic target. The Region will have the opportunity to revisit these numbers in 10 years or less as may be required by changes in provincial policy or legislation or as determined to be required through on-going monitoring.
j. Staff are concerned with Figure 4-4 on page 31 of the Report that shows a zero
percent increase in the “Employment Land” (industrial, warehousing, office parks)
category in the DGAs, as well as a total employment of only 13% of Regional employment being located within the DGAs. Staff request confirmation on these numbers. The definition of Community Areas as mentioned above, does include
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Subject: Envision Durham – Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report Page 7
some employment land. Staff recommend the Region reconsider this allocation
based on the Employment Strategy Technical Report findings which indicated a
shortfall in the supply of designated Employment Area Lands and the desire for complete communities. Additionally, Figure 4-4 indicates that the DGA Community Area is expected to accommodate a population increase of 322,800 and an employment increase of 29,800 jobs. This is a ratio of approximately 1 job for
every 11 people. This split of residential and employment does not support the
creation of complete communities within the DGAs.
k. Staff has reviewed the policy recommendations, and recommend that the above comments be considered by Regional staff and their consultants and that additional evaluation and analysis be conducted to determine expansion needs in the
Region. Further, staff agree with the statement in Section 5.3 of the Report that
“the forecast Community Area land needs are not homogenous across the region and will be sensitive to area municipal DGA Community Area density targets”. This is a gap in the work completed to date as it would not be appropriate for the same density targets of 60 P&J/ha to be applied across Durham. In order to get a better
understanding of whether the recommended average target is appropriate, a more
detailed level of analysis may have to be undertaken.
Additionally, staff support the Region’s further review of a number of development scenarios with different housing mixes, and further consultation on these scenarios, to determine an appropriate mix and targets for the DGA. As part of this analysis,
and in accordance with previous comments from the City contained in Report
PLN 29-21, staff recommend the Region also consider a scenario reflecting a future airport and the potential implications it may have in terms of population and employment allocation and growth.
3. Staff Recommendations:
It is recommended that the staff comments in Section 2.2 of this report be endorsed by
Council as the City’s formal comments on the Envision Durham Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report, and that a copy of Report PLN 45-21 and Council’s resolution be forwarded to the Region of Durham for consideration.
Report PLN 45-21 December 13, 2021
Subject: Envision Durham – Community Area Urban Land Needs Technical Report Page 8
Prepared By:
Original Signed By
Kristy Kilbourne, MCIP, RPP Principal Planner, Policy
Original Signed By
Déan Jacobs, MCIP, RPP Manager, Policy & Geomatics
Approved/Endorsed By:
Original Signed By
Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP Chief Planner
Original Signed By
Kyle Bentley, P. Eng. Director, City Development & CBO
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Recommended for the consideration
of Pickering City Council
Original Signed By
Marisa Carpino, M.A. Chief Administrative Officer