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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPLN 16-20Cfy �t DICKERING Report to Planning & Development Committee Report Number: PLN 16-20 Date: September 14, 2020 From: Kyle Bentley Director, City Development & CBO Subject: The Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan 2020-2030 Prepared by Toronto and Region Conservation Authority - City of Pickering Recommendations to the Draft Watershed Plan File: D-8100-028 Recommendation: 1. That the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) be requested to revise the Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan (CCWP), as follows: (a) Providing greater clarity about the "77%" figure identified as the potential increase in downstream peak flows under the hypothetical land use Scenario 3 modelling analysis including: explaining that it is a "worst case" scenario and why; identifying the rainfall and storm duration parameters for a Hurricane Hazel type event; and relating the modelled increases in peak flows to the proposed management recommendations; (b) Revising Management Recommendation 3.1.1 respecting the protection, expansion and restoration of the Natural Heritage System (NHS) in the watershed, to reflect discussion in the introductory text that precedes Table 8: NHS Management Recommendations, to allow consideration of alternative configurations, size and composition for an enhanced NHS to that identified on Map 2 of the Draft CCWP; and (c) Adding a new Management Recommendation 1.3.6 stating that TRCA continues to support and enhance the existing flood model by increasing the number of rainfall monitoring stations and stream flow gauges on all tributaries including the most minor; and 2. That a copy of this Report and Council's resolution be forwarded to the TRCA, the Region of Durham and the Town of Ajax. Executive Summary: On March 16, 2020, the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) released the Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan (CCWP) for public review. The new CCWP has been developed by the TRCA in collaboration with the Region of Durham, the City of Pickering and the Town of Ajax. The watershed plan process included an assessment of the current health of the watershed, revisiting its vision and management philosophy, detailed fieldwork, developing scenarios, recommending management actions focused on the protection, restoration, enhancement, and long-term management of the watershed, as well as a proposed monitoring and evaluation program to track the implementation of the Watershed Plan. The work on the Watershed Plan commenced in 2015, and included various stakeholder and public engagement opportunities. The Draft CCWP is provided as Attachment #1, and can also be accessed via the following hyperlink: https://trca.ca/conservation/watershed-management/carruthers-creek/watershed-plan/. Report PLN 16-20 September 14, 2020 Subject: The Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 2 Comments on the Draft CCWP were initially due June 16, 2020, but the deadline was indefinitely postponed in view of the COVID-19 pandemic. Council is requested to endorse the recommendations of Report PLN 16-20 derived from staff's review of the draft CCWP. This report was prepared in collaboration with City Engineering Services staff. Financial Implications: Not Applicable. Discussion: 1. Structure of the Report Section 2 of this report provides background on watershed planning. Section 3 provides background on the Carruthers Creek watershed. Section 4 explains why an update to the Watershed Plan was required. Section 5 provides comments and recommendations on the Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan (CCWP) for Council's consideration. Appendix I provides an overview of the CCWP, and Attachment #1 is a full copy of the Draft CCWP. 2. What is the Purpose of Watershed Planning? The purpose of a watershed plan is to understand the current conditions of a watershed and identify measures and actions to protect, enhance and restore the health of a watershed. Watershed planning is aimed at maintaining the ecological integrity of a watershed, which consists of two integrated systems — the water resources system and the natural heritage system, and to inform decisions on planning for water, wastewater and stormwater infrastructure, and the allocation of growth. Watershed planning integrates natural systems into land use and infrastructure decision-making by identifying natural features to protect and by recommending how to mitigate impacts from land use and infrastructure development on natural systems. The main policy drivers for watershed planning are the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS, 2020), A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2020, (Growth Plan), and the Greenbelt Plan, 2017 (Greenbelt Plan). PPS policies encourage a coordinated approach to planning and recognize that watersheds provide an ecologically meaningful scale for integrated and long-term planning. The polices also direct the protection, improvement or restoration of the quality and quantity of water by minimizing potential negative impacts. Similarly, Growth Plan and Greenbelt Plan policies require watershed planning to be undertaken to support the protection, enhancement or restoration of the quality and quantity of water within a watershed. Municipalities are required to conform to the PPS and applicable provincial plans when updating their official plans and making planning decisions. 3. Where is the Carruthers Creek Watershed? Carruthers Creek is a small watershed located west of Lake Ridge Road, extending from the Eighth Concession Road in the north to Lake Ontario in the south. The watershed covers rural lands in northeast Pickering, and rural and urban areas in the eastern parts of the Town of Ajax (see Figure 2: Carruthers Creek Watershed, and Figure 3: Carruthers Creek Subwatersheds, pages 10 and 16 of Attachment #1). Report PLN 16-20 September 14, 2020 Subject: The Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 3 The watershed is bordered to the east by the Lynde Creek watershed and to the west by the Duffins Creek watershed. Rural lands in the Carruthers Creek watershed located between Highway 7 and Taunton Road are identified as Protected Countryside in the Greenbelt Plan. In the south part of the Carruthers Creek watershed in the Town of Ajax, there is an area identified as a "Flood Vulnerable Cluster" where existing structures are located in the flood plain (see Figure 2, page 10 of Attachment #1). There has been historical and recent flooding events in the Carruthers Creek watershed due to extreme precipitation events. 4. Why was the Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Updated? Firstly, the previous watershed plan for this area, the Duffins and Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan, dates back to 2003. Many changes have taken place in the watershed since 2003, partly as a result of climate change and urbanization. Also, provincial policy regarding watershed plans have evolved, and science has become more advanced in monitoring and modelling the impact on, and the conditions and functions within, watersheds. In view of the evolving planning regime and the science advancements, and since many of the issues identified in the 2003 watershed plan are still prevalent, an updated watershed plan was considered necessary in 2015. The Region of Durham engaged the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) in a consulting capacity to develop the new watershed plan for Carruthers Creek. At the request of the Region, a small area of the East Duffins Creek subwatershed, that are immediately adjacent to the Carruthers Creek watershed, was included in the watershed plan study area to provide a more complete analysis of lands in the area. Secondly, policy 7.3.11 p) of the Durham Regional Official Plan (ROP) requires a watershed plan update for the East Duffins and Carruthers Creek watersheds where a "Municipal Comprehensive Review" of the ROP includes consideration of an urban area expansion into lands in northeast Pickering. The Region is undertaking a municipal comprehensive review of its Official Plan. Through that review process, the Region has received two requests to expand the urban area into northeast Pickering: one from Pickering Council to enable age friendly and more affordable housing residential development (Resolution #140/19, dated September 19, 2019); and the other from Dorsay (Pickering) Limited (Dorsay')1, dated October 17, 2019. Dorsay's request would facilitate the development of a proposed new community, known as "Veraine"2, on lands that include the northern third of the Carruthers Creek watershed. 1 Dorsay (Pickering) Limited owns approximately 25 percent of the lands in the Veraine Master Planning Area. On their own initiative, Dorsay put together an interdisciplinary consulting team to undertake a planning study on the Veraine lands. A Vision and Guiding Community Planning Principles have been prepared as well as a number of background reports in support of their request to be included in the urban area. 2Veraine is the name given to a proposed new community on lands in northeast Pickering. The Veraine lands are generally bounded by Westney Road to the west; the Eighth Concession Road to the north; Lake Ridge Road to the east; and the Sixth Concession Road/Highway 7 to the south. The lands are outside of the Greenbelt and are currently rural. Report PLN 16-20 September 14, 2020 Subject: The Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 4 5. Staff Comments Overall, staff congratulates the TRCA in bringing the long process to a conclusion and producing an updated comprehensive watershed plan. It is evident that significant effort went into producing a document that uses plain language, defines most terms, is generally easy to read (use of infographics, for example), and logically laid out in accordance with the process followed. This is especially important because readers do not always read a document from front to back, or comprehend what terms mean if they do not have background knowledge in watershed planning and the many sciences it involves. Staff generally agrees with the majority of the Management Recommendations, but through the detailed review of the Draft CCWP, have identified a number of matters that need clarification. These concerns relate to the following: • The lack of clarity around the presentation of a "77%" increase in downstream flooding under land use Scenario 3 with a Hurricane Hazel event; • The lack of clarity regarding the proposed enhanced Natural Heritage System shown in the central and northern sections of the Carruthers Creek watershed, and reflected in land use Scenarios 2 and 3; and • The lack of clarity about whether rainfall and stream flow data will continue to be collected for the current watershed flood model. These concerns are discussed in more detail below. 5.1 The lack of clarity around the study findings of a "77%" increase in downstream flooding under Scenario 3 As described in Appendix I to this report, and shown on Figure 5: Future Scenarios Mapping, page 33 of Attachment #1, the Draft CCWP developed 3 hypothetical land use scenarios to model the impact on the natural systems. Scenario 1 reflected development in accordance with the existing official plan designations. Scenario 2 added an enhanced natural heritage system to this development. Scenario 3 then added urban development to lands in northeast Pickering. Urban development assumes an increase in imperviousness, and a faster rate of stormwater run-off than natural or rural land use. The natural hazard conditions for each land use scenario, and two storm events, were modelled. The results are shown on the Table 4 infographic on page 38 of Attachment #1. The change in conditions, measured relative to Scenario 1, indicates that under Scenario 3 with a Hurricane Hazel type storm, peak flows downstream would increase by 77%, which would cause significant impact to flood levels throughout the watershed. The use of an infograph in this case, as a way to simplify complex modelling, assumptions and inferring potential impacts, produced a single number ("77%") that is easily misunderstood by readers without the context of how the management recommendations address this finding. Report PLN 16-20 September 14, 2020 Subject: The Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 5 In this regard, City staff found that the background Hydrological Assessment, prepared for the CCWP in November 2019, provided a better discussion of the implications of the modelling results and recommendations to address the potential increase in peak flows (see Extract of Hydrological Assessment, pages 10-14, Attachment #2). The discussion immediately follows the presentation of the modelling results. It is quite possible that readers of the Draft CCWP didn't read the text of the Plan in detail, and/or read no further than the page 38 infographic, and the Summary of Implications on page 39. Review of the Hydrological Assessment and discussions between the City's Division Head, Water Resources & Development Services and TRCA engineering staff, revealed that an increase in downstream flooding by 77% is an inaccurate presentation of the Assessment's findings. The 77% figure does not appear in the Hydrological Assessment. The "77%" represents an average of the change at 2 measurement points in the watershed, (Taunton Road and Shoal Point Road), and could not be relied upon as an average for the whole watershed. The figure overstates the increase in peak flows at Shoal Point Road and understates the increase in peak flows north of Taunton Road. The TRCA is receiving comments that indicate readers are drawing the conclusion that no urban development can occur northeast Pickering on the basis of the 77% figure. This is not the case. The Draft CCWP identifies potential impacts of development and proposes a series of mitigation measures to manage those impacts, should development be considered within the headwaters area. Mitigation measures could include improving downstream conveyance, flood protection options and/or on-site controls. As a result of the general public misunderstanding about the meaning of the 77% figure, the Chief Executive Officer of the TRCA issued a letter of clarification on July 20, 2020 (see Letter from John MacKenzie, Attachment #3). The natural hazard modelling simulates a Hurricane Hazel type event. But the Plan contains no details on the assumptions used to model a Hurricane Hazel storm. The Hurricane Hazel modelling scenario is a "worst case" scenario. For those who are not aware, after a very wet fall, Hurricane Hazel struck Southern Ontario on October 15, 1954, dropping 285 millimeters (11.22 inches) of rain in 48 hours. In those conditions, it is assumed that all existing stormwater infrastructure has failed or is overflowing. Thus, the modelling did not factor in modern stormwater management facilities. Although Hurricane Hazel struck the western part of the Greater Toronto Area, the TRCA uses that rainfall amount and duration to calculate the flood plain for each of its watersheds. As a "worst case" scenario", the modelling of Hurricane Hazel type storm becomes the benchmark against other urban land use scenarios would be compared. However, the comparison would have to be made in the context of the additional studies that would need to be completed and proposed mitigations measures to manage the impacts as identified in the Management Recommendations of the Draft CCWP (see Management Recommendations for the Carruthers Creak Headwaters Area, pages 54 and 55 of Attachment #1). Staff recommends that greater clarity be provided about the "77%" figure including: explaining that it is a "worst case" scenario and why; identifying the rainfall and storm duration parameters for a Hurricane Hazel type event; and relating the modelled increases in peak flows to the proposed management recommendations. Report PLN 16-20 September 14, 2020 Subject: The Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 6 5.2 The lack of clarity regarding the proposed enhanced Natural Heritage System shown in northeast Pickering, and reflected in Modelling Scenarios 2 and 3 Scenarios 2 and 3 reflect an enhanced Natural Heritage System (NHS) in the central and northern parts of the watershed (north of Taunton Road, up to the headwaters) (see Scenarios Mapping, page 33 of Attachment #1). The enhanced NHS increases the area of natural cover from its current 25 percent to 36 percent (which equals an increase in natural cover of approximately 415 hectares (1,030 acres) of land). This would create a NHS that is significantly larger than the NHS reflected on Schedule IIIA of the Pickering Official Plan, and the Regional NHS for the Growth Plan, completed by the Ministry of Natural Resources in 2019. It is stated on page 49 of the Draft CCWP that it will be up to municipalities to adopt a NHS that is consistent with provincial policy and informed by the goals and objectives of the CCWP. The Draft CCWP also points out that the exact size and configuration of the NHS could fluctuate due to other factors, assuming the analysis is comparable to the one that resulted in the proposed enhanced NHS recommended in the Plan. However, the language in the narrative is not carried into the management recommendations. Management Recommendation 3.1.1 regarding the protection, enhancement and restoration of a NHS refers to the recommended NHS as set out in Map 2: Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Enhanced Natural Heritage System (see page 64 of Attachment #1). Accordingly, the enhanced NHS as reflected in the Draft CCWP could be misconstrued as being the only possible option for the headwaters. A watershed plan seeks the best possible outcomes to improve and restore the conditions of, and functions within, a watershed. The inclusion of large tracks of farmland into an enhanced NHS as shown in hypothetical Scenarios 2 and 3, may present a best -case scenario from a watershed planning perspective. However, the proposed NHS represents a poor scenario from a land development perspective (significantly reducing and fragmenting potential development areas and jeopardizing coherent urban development on lands in northeast Pickering). The Draft CCWP does not address the possibility of whether the municipality may adopt and implement an enhanced NHS with an alternative configuration, size or composition in the headwaters, subject to studies demonstrating that it is consistent with provincial policy and the goals and objectives of the CCWP. It is recommended that the Draft Management Recommendation 3.1.1 respecting the protection, expansion and restoration of the NHS in the watershed be revised to reflect the discussion in the text that precedes Table 8: NHS Management Recommendations, to allow consideration of alternative configurations, size and composition for an enhanced NHS to the existing recommended NHS on Map 2. Staff further note that should development not be considered in northeast Pickering, a significant land acquisition program would be required to secure additional lands in public ownership and rehabilitate them to a natural condition. While selected owners may be willing to enter into a management agreement and convert the land to natural cover, it is unlikely any amount close to the required 415 hectares would be secured. Report PLN 16-20 September 14, 2020 Subject: The Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 7 5.3 The need to continually gather data to calibrate the flood model Land Use Management Recommendation 1.3.5 states that TRCA complete comprehensive floodplain mapping based on new models and best available information to inform land use and infrastructure decisions. Although new flood models may be developed, there has been significant background work completed as part of this Draft Watershed Plan using the existing flood model. The model was used to evaluate a land use scenario in 2012. If a decision is made that development will be permitted in northeast Pickering, it is clear that much more detailed modelling will be required to assess the impacts on the watershed of both the proposed NHS and the proposed development. The modelling would need to address both the "usual" subdivision level stormwater controls plus an evaluation of upstream and downstream mitigation measures to ensure downstream flooding does not increase. The Draft CCWP is silent of the importance of ensuring the watershed model is continually updated to be as accurate as possible. Should the decision be made to consider urban development in northeast Pickering, the most up-to-date calibrated model should be available based on ongoing collection of rainfall and stream flow on each tributary, no matter how minor. This was particularly important in Seaton as the stormwater model was calibrated on updated data to allow the effect on the tiniest tributary to be modelled. Accordingly, it is recommended that a new Management Recommendation 1.3.6 be included stating that TRCA continue to support and enhance the existing flood model by increasing the number of rainfall monitoring stations and stream flow gauges on all tributaries. Adding this Recommendation would allow both the development of new models, if feasible, and the ongoing refinement and calibration of the current flood model in the watershed at a very detailed level. 6.0 Conclusion A watershed plan is not a land use plan. However, the recommendations from this new watershed plan will help shape future decisions regarding land uses and infrastructure by identifying natural features to protect and recommending how to mitigate impacts from development. It is therefore important that any potential for misinterpretation of the information in the Draft CCWP is clarified. It is recommended that the TRCA clarify the study findings of a "77%" increase in downstream flooding under Scenario 3, revise Management Recommendation 3.1.1 respecting the protection, expansion and restoration of the Natural Heritage System in the watershed, and add a new Management Recommendation 1.3.6 indicating that TRCA continues to support and enhance the existing flood model. Report PLN 16-20 September 14, 2020 Subject: The Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 8 Appendix Appendix I Overview of Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan, 2020-2030 Attachments 1. Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan, 2020-2030 (released March 16, 2020) 2. Extract of Hydrological Assessment, 2019 (pages 10 to 14) 3. Letter from John MacKenzie, Chief Executive Officer, of the TRCA, dated July 20, 2020 Prepared By: Approved/Endorsed By: Dean Jacobs, MCIP, RPP Manager, Policy & Geomatics DJ:CR:Id Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP Chief Planner x Kyle Bentley, P. Eng. Director, City Development & CBO Recommended for the consideration of Pickering City Council Marisa Carpino, M.A. Interim Chief Administrative Officer Appendix I to Report PLN 16-20 Overview of the Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Overview of the Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Process, Findings and Recommendations 1. The Development of the Draft CCWP The main components of the Draft CCWP are listed below, and then described in more detail in the following sections that follow: (a) a communication and engagement strategy; (b) developing a new vison for the watershed; (c) characterizing the watershed (to understand the current state of the watershed); (d) assessing future conditions based on potential land use scenarios; and (e) developing a management framework consisting of proposed management recommendations and a monitoring and evaluation program. 2. The Communication and Engagement Strategy The project team consulted with the Mississaugas of Scugog Island, as well as numerous stakeholders including watershed residents, developers, farmers, golf course operators, and residents from Ajax and Pickering. Additionally, the communication and engagement strategy involved: • reports and presentations to Councils and Committees of the Region of Durham, the City of Pickering, and Town of Ajax; • municipal working group sessions with staff from the Region, City of Pickering, and the Town of Ajax through the duration of the study; • the launch of an interactive website to promote participation and notify the public and stakeholders of events, and posting study materials for comments, including on an on-line survey; and • public open houses have been held in both Ajax and Pickering, one in each of phases 1 and 2 of the study. The third and final open house, which has been postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, has not yet been held. 3. A new vision for the Carruthers Creek Watershed (CCW) The following new vision for the CCW was developed through stakeholder and municipal working group inputs: Carruthers Creek watershed is a healthy and resilient natural system that is managed through partnerships to balance resource protection with human activity. Sound science and best management practices will protect and restore ecosystem functions, protect watershed residents from natural hazards like flooding, and maintain our natural heritage and water resources for present and future generations (see page 11 of the Draft CCWP, Attachment #1). 4. Watershed Characterization Watershed characterization determines the current state of the watershed and consists of assessing the water resources system and natural heritage system in the watershed. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority's (TRCA) characterization of the CCW included the preparation of eight peer-reviewed technical reports that assessed the following aspects: Overview of the Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 2 (a) hydrogeology (groundwater conditions); (b) fluvial geomorphology (the creek's flow and sediment movement process, drainage patterns and erosion risks); (c) aquatic crossings and barriers; (d) aquatic habitat (e.g., fish community richness and composition, stream temperature, etc.); (e) headwater drainage features (small streams in the upper portions of the watershed that may not flow year round); (f) water quantity; (g) surface water quality; and (h) terrestrial (land based) features (habitat, species, and natural cover). The four key issues that were identified through the watershed characterization process are as follows: 1. The aquatic ecosystem is sensitive and near the level of land use development it can sustain long-term. 2. There is not enough natural cover, or good quality habitat, needed to maintain ecosystem resilience (i.e., capacity to respond to change) due to changing land use patterns and climate change. 3. Water quality is impaired (i.e., degraded), requiring improvements to stormwater management. 4. The flow of water through the watershed is out of balance from natural conditions, resulting in flooding and erosion issues. In order to better understand the conditions of the watershed, TRCA included a summary of the benchmarks and associated targets in relation to each of the key issues listed above in the Plan (see Table 2: Current Watershed Conditions Benchmarks, pages 27 to 29 of Attachment #1). The benchmarks are key reference points for understanding how watershed conditions can change over time in order to evaluate the success of the watershed plan. The targets (or rating scales) show the ideal state of each particular watershed component, including aquatic health, groundwater recharge, habitat quality, etc. The targets are informed by relevant TRCA strategies, federal or provincial guidance materials, and established conservation science. 5. Scenario Development Understanding how a watershed will respond to potential future changes requires an analysis of alternate scenarios that reflect a difference composition of possible land use conditions. Accordingly, the following three hypothetical future scenarios were used and compared to 2015 land use conditions (the baseline) as part of the CCW planning process (see Figure 5: Future Scenarios Mapping, page 33 of Attachment #1) and as described below: • Scenario 1 (+OP) assumes all lands south of the Greenbelt are developed as planned in approved Official Plans up to the year 2031. Overview of the Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 3 • Scenario 2 (+NHS) assumes the same development as Scenario 1 but includes a proposed enhanced Natural Heritage System (NHS) that includes natural features and areas, such as forests, meadows, wetlands, and potential natural cover enhancement areas. The proposed enhanced NHS was informed by new and updated information from natural heritage science and practices and is intended to identify a more expanded and integrated NHS consisting of existing natural cover and potential areas for additional natural cover that would improve ecosystem functions and services in the watershed. • Scenario 3 (+Potential Urban) assumes post -2031 urban development in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek (northeast Pickering lands) outside the proposed enhanced Natural Heritage System. It is important to note that scenario analysis does not result in decisions about the type and configuration of land uses. Instead, scenario analysis helps to inform decisions through the municipal planning process (e.g., Official Plans). It is the responsibility of the applicable municipality to determine the ultimate land use configuration for any future changes within the watershed. Key components of watershed health were assessed in terms of each of the three future scenarios, to identify whether the watershed responds positively, neutrally, or negatively to the potential future scenarios in comparison to identified benchmarks. Climate change was incorporated into the scenario analysis where possible. For example, storm events considered to be more frequent under climate change scenarios were included in the hydrologic modelling in the watershed planning process. The main results of the scenario assessment process are as follows: • The condition of the aquatic habitat and functions in the watershed will deteriorate overall from current conditions by 6% under Scenario 1, and by 12% under Scenario 3, likely resulting in the loss of Redside Dace (endangered fish species) within the watershed. Implementing the management recommendations identified in this watershed plan, especially limiting impervious cover and undertaking restoration activities will help Redside Dace habitat. • The condition of the NHS, which includes terrestrial habitat and their functions, will improve overall from current conditions by 1% under Scenario 1, by 7% in Scenario 2, but will slightly decrease by 6% under Scenario 3 due to the impacts of surrounding urban development. • Water quality within the watershed is likely to continue deteriorating with increased urbanization unless improved land use practices, and salt and stormwater management are implemented. • The existing flooding issues in the watershed will increase marginally (by 2%) under Scenario 1 but that increase will be neutralized under Scenario 2 (the flood risk would in essence be the same as current conditions). However, flooding issues will significantly increase (by 77%) under Scenario 3, unless considerable mitigation measures are implemented. Overview of the Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Page 4 6. Management Framework In order to address the four main results of the scenario assessment process (listed above), the Draft CCWP contains a Management Framework that consists of goals (outcomes to achieve) and corresponding objectives (statements about desired results/steps to undertake to achieve goals); indicators (how the progress of implementing the objective is going to be measured); and management recommendations (explanation of what should be done) to protect, restore and enhance the health of the watershed. The proposed Framework, consisting of three goals, nine objectives and eleven indicators, is contained in Figure 6: Overview of Management Framework (see page 42 of Attachment #1). The 3 goals that have been set for the CCW are as follows: • achieve sustainable land use and infrastructure development patterns to protect, enhance and restore water quality and maintain stable water balance; • protect, enhance and restore the areas and features that make up the Water Resource System (including aquatic habitat) for ecosystem resilience and sustainability; and • protect, enhance and restore the Natural Heritage System and urban forest within the watershed to improve ecosystem resilience and sustainability. The Management Recommendations (MRs) in relation to each of the above 3 goals and their associated objectives are contained in Tables 6, 7, and 8 respectively of the Plan (see pages 43, 47 and 50 of Attachment #1). The MRs apply to the entire watershed. MRs specific to the Headwaters are contained in Table 9 (see page 54 of Attachment #1). The MRs in relation to the Land Use/Infrastructure, Water Resource System, and Natural Heritage System Goals speak mostly to proposed actions to be taken by the Region of Durham, or the Town of Ajax or City of Pickering, and/or to collaboration between all three municipalities and/or TRCA to achieve associated objectives. The majority of the MRs are "encouraging" in nature, acknowledging that the implementation of many recommendations is dependent upon factors such as available resources, level of collaboration, local context and decision making. Attachment #1 to Report #PLN 16-20 Carruthers Creek WATERSHED PLAN 2020 - 2030 Developed in collaboration with the Town of Ajax and City of Pickering DURHAM REGION elkToronto and Region Conservation Authority Executive Summary A watershed is an area that is drained by a river and its tributaries. Healthy watersheds provide numerous ecosystem services; from sustaining drinking water, supporting biodiversity, reducing flood and erosion hazards, protecting the quality and quantity of water, and replenishing aquifers. Due to the importance of healthy watersheds, they merit collaborative efforts to ensure their long-term sustainability. The purpose of a watershed plan is to understand the current conditions of the watershed, and identify measures to protect, enhance and restore the health of the watershed. Watershed planning integrates natural systems into land use and infrastructure decision-making by identifying natural features to protect and by recommending how to mitigate impacts from land use and infrastructure development on natural systems. Ontario's provincial planning framework recognizes that watershed planning is important to informing land use and infrastructure planning decisions. The development of this watershed plan has been a collaborative effort between the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA), the Region of Durham, the Town of Ajax and the City of Pickering. Additional stakeholders and members of the public have been involved throughout the watershed planning process. Carruthers Creek is a small watershed that crosses rural and urban lands, including portions of the provincial Greenbelt, before entering Lake Ontario. Urbanization and the impacts of climate change will continue to stress the health and resiliency of the watershed. Watershed planning is a means to identify opportunities to mitigate and adapt to potential changes in watershed health arising from land use and infrastructure development patterns. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan The development of the Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan was a multi-year process that consisted of: 0 Watershed characterization, which involves the identification of current conditions in the watershed. The key issues with Carruthers Creek were identified to be: a. The aquatic ecosystem is sensitive and near the level of land use development it can sustain long-term (without additional and improved mitigation). b. There is not enough natural cover, or good quality habitat, needed to maintain ecosystem resilience (i.e. capacity to respond to change) due to changing land use patterns and climate change. c. Water quality is impaired (i.e. degraded), requiring improvements to stormwater management. d. The flow of water through the watershed is out of balance from natural conditions resulting in flooding and erosion issues. 0 Understanding future conditions through the analysis of potential land use scenarios. Three potential future scenarios were compared to 2015 land use conditions as part of the Carruthers Creek watershed planning process. a. Scenario 1 (+OP) — assumes all lands south of the Greenbelt are developed as planned in approved Official Plans up to the year 2031. b. Scenario 2 (+NHS) — assumes the same development as scenario 1 but includes the proposed enhanced Natural Heritage System (includes natural features and areas, such as forests, meadows, wetlands, and potential natural cover enhancement areas). c. Scenario 3 (+Potential Urban) — assumes post -2031 development in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek outside the proposed enhanced Natural Heritage System. These three potential future scenarios help determine how the watershed would react to these potential land use changes, which can help inform future land use and infrastructure planning decisions. In other words, would these potential changes have a positive, neutral, or negative effect on the health of the Carruthers Creek watershed? Scenario analysis does not result in decisions about the type and configuration of land uses. Instead, scenario analysis helps to inform decisions through the municipal planning process (e.g. Official Plans, secondary plans). 0 The development of a management framework to provide recommendations on how to protect, enhance and restore the watershed. The management framework consists of goals, objectives, indicators and management recommendations. This management framework is designed to address existing issues in the watershed and mitigate impacts from potential future land uses, while recommending appropriate actions to protect, enhance and restore the watershed. Decisions on the configuration of future growth and land use throughout the watershed are the purview of the applicable municipality (e.g. Region of Durham for decisions such as settlement area boundary expansions and local municipalities for site-specific decisions). 0 A monitoring and evaluation program to track implementation progress and ensure mechanisms are in place to adjust approaches as needed. The indicators identified as part of the management framework will help determine if actions taken in the watershed are having the desired benefit. Adaptive management will be used to adjust the management framework as needed. Through the implementation of the Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan, TRCA and its municipal partners, can improve the health of the watershed and ensure integrated long-term planning for land use and infrastructure decision-making. Protecting, enhancing and restoring the natural systems within the watershed; accompanied by sustainable land use and infrastructure planning of redevelopments and future growth is essential for a healthy Carruthers Creek watershed. 4 4 -�. .'; • . +�'T ftr• '.4 F _•61.1 { r - y 4 } 4 WHAT IS A WATERSHED? An area that is drained by a river and its tributaries. Wherever you are right now, you are in a watershed. WATERSHEDS DELIVER IMPORTANT BENEFITS Human - provide safe drinking water and food, and help to reduce flooding and erosion. Economic - produce energy, and supply water for agriculture, industry and homes. Environment - promote a healthy water cycle, and provide vital habitat for wildlife and plants. What is the Natural Heritage System? Consists of natural features and areas, including wetlands, forests, meadows and valleylands, that are needed to maintain biodiversity and healthy ecosystems. io 44° 14 r What is the Water Resource System? Consists of groundwater and surface water features and areas, including streams, lakes, groundwater recharge areas and springs, needed to sustain healthy aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, and human water supply. How can salt impact a watershed? Chlorides can contaminate drinking water and negatively affect the health of aquatic species. What causes flooding? Rivers naturally flood with heavy rain or snowmelt, but flooding can become a problem when buildings and other structures are placed in floodplains. Climate change and urbanization can make flooding worse. r What is stormwater? Rain and melting snow rushes off roofs, sidewalks and parking lots into pipes and pours into streams and lakes. Without proper stormwater control and treatment, flooding and erosion can increase, waterways can become polluted and local ecosystems can be damaged. FIGURE 1 Understanding a Watershed How can agriculture impact a watershed? Agricultural areas provide valuable greenspace and reduce stormwater, since precipitation can penetrate the soil. On the other hand, agricultural fields can release harmful contaminants into waterways as excess nutrients (e.g. phosphorus) and pesticides. Soil erosion from fields can increase the amount of sediment in waterways negatively affecting aquatic ecosystems. #1, www ®®® II■ How can urbanization impact a watershed? Since impervious surfaces (roads, buildings, parking lots) prevent water from penetrating into soil, stormwater runoff can carry contaminants into waterways and increase the likelihood of flooding. Infrastructure and land use development can degrade habitat, reducing the quality and quantity of natural systems and their connectivity. 0 0 Surface and Groundwater Interaction Rain and melting snow penetrate the soil in permeable areas draining into an aquifer (i.e. groundwater recharge areas). That groundwater can then discharge at springs into streams, wetlands or other surface water features. Groundwater recharge JIIIJ 11[11.1111 Benefits of the Urban Forest All trees in a city collectively help to remove pollutants from air and water, reduce stormwater runoff, cool communities, save energy, and improve human health and well-being. Table of Contents 1. Introduction and Background 1.1 Rationale and Policy Basis 1.2 Local Context and Considerations 1.3 Partners and Stakeholders 2. Water Resource and Natural Heritage Systems 3. Existing Watershed Conditions 3.1 Context and Background 3.2 Historical and Current Land Uses 3.3 Current State of the Watershed 4. Future Watershed Conditions 4.1 Future Stressors 4.2 Future Scenarios 4.3 Scenario Analysis 5. Management Framework 5.1 Land Use / Infrastructure Goal 5.2 Water Resource System Goal 5.3 Natural Heritage System Goal 5.4 Carruthers Creek Headwaters Management 6. Monitoring and evaluation 7. Maps 8. Glossary 9. References 11 LIST OF FIGURES 12 FIGURE 1: Understanding a Watershed 15 FIGURE 2: Carruthers Creek Watershed 17 FIGURE 3: Carruthers Creek Subwatersheds FIGURE 4: Comparing Urban Forest and Natural Cover 18 FIGURE 5: Future Scenarios Mapping FIGURE 6: Overview of Management Framework FIGURE 7: Monitoring Stations Map FIGURE 8: Adaptive Management Cycle FIGURE 9: Subwatershed Quality Due to Changes in Impervious Cover 21 22 23 23 LIST OF TABLES 30 TABLE 1: Description of the Water Resource System and Natural Heritage System TABLE 2:Current Watershed Conditions Benchmarks TABLE 3: Potential Future Land Use Scenarios TABLE 4: Scenario Analysis Implications TABLE 5: Management Framework Explanation 43 TABLE 6: Land Use Management 47 Recommendations 49 TABLE 7: WRS Management Recommendations 54 TABLE 8: NHS Management Recommendations TABLE 9: Headwaters Specific Management 56 Recommendations TABLE 10: Carruthers Creek Monitoring Program 62 TABLE 11: Restoration Opportunity Summaries 74 79 30 31 34 40 6 10 16 25 33 42 57 61 73 19 27 32 35 41 43 47 50 54 58 68 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan '"CRONYMS ANSI Areas of Natural and Scientific Interest CCME Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment CTC Credit Valley, Toronto and Region and Central Lake Ontario DFO Department of Fisheries and Oceans ESGRAs Ecologically Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas FBI Family Biotic Index FVC Flood Vulnerable Cluster GIS Geographic Information System Growth Plan Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2019 GTA Greater Toronto Area IBI Index of Biotic Integrity IRP Integrated Restoration Prioritization LAM Landscape Analysis Model MECP Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks MNRF Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry NHS Natural Heritage System PPS Provincial Policy Statement PWQO Provincial Water Quality Objectives ROP Regional Official Plan TRCA Toronto and Region Conservation Authority TSS Total Suspended Solids WRS Water Resource System Indigenous Land Acknowledgement As we strive to develop a comprehensive watershed plan for the Carruthers Creek watershed, Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) acknowledges that this watershed planning was undertaken within the traditional territory and treaty lands of the Anishinaabeg of the Williams Treaty First Nations, and the traditional territory of the Huron-Wendat Nation. As stewards of land and water resources within the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), TRCA appreciates and recognizes the history and diversity of the land, as well as our shared values and interests and is respectful of working in this territory. Toronto and Region Conservation Atriiwd A Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make c anges and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: 2015 Land Use Conditions 0 0.5 1 2 3 KM Municipal Boundary co Flood Vulnerable Cluster Watercourse Land Use Ile Natural Rural 4 Urban Greenbelt Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study Area 1. Introduction and Background Carruthers Creek is a small, yet important watershed that crosses rural and urban areas before entering Lake Ontario. This watershed plan represents a collaborative effort to determine the current state of the watershed, assess potential future land use scenarios, and determine an appropriate management framework to ensure the long-term sustainability and resiliency of the watershed. See Figure 2 for a map of the Carruthers Creek watershed and its land use conditions as of 2015. This watershed plan has a ten-year time frame. However, regular monitoring and evaluation, including adaptive management, will ensure that the watershed plan is updated, or refined, as needed on an ongoing basis. Vision for the Carruthers Creek watershed: Carruthers Creek watershed is a healthy and resilient natural system that is managed through partnerships to balance resource protection with human activity. Sound science and best management practices will protect and restore ecosystem functions, protect watershed residents from natural hazards like flooding, and maintain our natural heritage and water resources for present and future generations. 11 1.1 RATIONALE AND POLICY BASIS Watershed planning is important because it helps to understand the current conditions of the watershed (i.e. watershed characterization), and identify measures to protect, enhance and restore the health of a watershed. Watershed plans provide a comprehensive understanding of the ecological forms and functions of the various features and areas that comprise the water resource and natural heritage systems. Additionally, watershed planning helps to inform how land use and infrastructure planning influence and affect the natural ecology of the watershed. This subsection will explain the provincial policy basis for watershed planning and the roles of municipalities and TRCA in implementing that policy framework. Provincial Watershed Planning Policy Basis Ontario's planning policy framework recognizes the importance of watershed planning to inform land use and infrastructure decision-making. The key policy driver for watershed planning is applicable provincial policy direction in the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS, 2014) and provincial plans such as the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2019 (Growth Plan) and the Greenbelt Plan, 2017 (Greenbelt Plan)'. PPS policies encourage a coordinated approach to planning that recognizes the watershed as the ecologically meaningful scale for integrated and long-term planning. The PPS also directs the protection, improvement or restoration of the quality and quantity of water by minimizing potential negative impacts. Growth Plan and Greenbelt Plan policies require watershed planning to be undertaken to support the protection, enhancement or restoration of the quality and quantity of water within a watershed2. Furthermore, watershed planning is to be used to identify the Water Resource System (WRS), inform decisions on allocation of growth and planning for water, wastewater and stormwater infrastructure3. Provincial policies also recognize the importance of protecting, enhancing and restoring the Natural Heritage System (NHS) to maintain long-term ecological and hydrologic functions of the features and areas'', and demonstrating that there will be no negative impacts from development and site alteration. The integrated nature and importance of the natural heritage and water resource systems is discussed in greater detail in Section 2. 'There are other geographically specific provincial plans that do not apply to the Carruthers Creek watershed (e.g. Lake Simcoe Protection Plan, Oak Ridges Moraine Conservation Plan and Niagara Escarpment Plan). 2Growth Plan policy 4.2.1.1 and Greenbelt Plan policy 3.2.3.2 'Growth Plan policy 4.2.1.3 and Greenbelt Plan policies 3.2.3.3 and 3.2.3.4. 'Natural Heritage System policies for the Growth Plan are 4.2.2 and the Greenbelt Plan are 3.2.2. 12 Municipalities are required to conform to the PPS and applicable provincial plans through the municipal planning process and when updating their Official Plans. This Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan identifies management recommendations necessary to demonstrate conformity with provincial policies related to watershed planning. By implementing the recommendations included in this watershed plan, municipalities will be able to demonstrate how the features and areas that comprise the natural heritage and water resource systems, as well as water quality and quantity, will be protected, enhanced and restored. Ontario's Clean Water Act, 2006 is designed to protect existing and future sources of drinking water. Under the Clean Water Act, 2006, source protection plans were developed by source protection committees representing municipal, Indigenous, public and business interests. The Credit Valley — Toronto and Region — Central Lake Ontario (CTC) Source Protection Plan applies in the Carruthers Creek watershed. The CTC Source Protection Plan is a strategy and suite of policies developed by residents, businesses and the municipalities, which outlines how water quality and quantity for municipal drinking water systems will be protected. The CTC Source Protection Plan includes its own set of policies and compliance mechanisms, in accordance with the Clean Water Act, 2006, that are not repeated in this watershed plan. The management recommendations identified in this watershed plan are broader than drinking water and complement the requirements of the applicable source protection plan. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Reducing Natural Cover Losses in the Carruthers Creek Watershed There have been losses and impacts to natural cover in the watershed, including parts of the Greenbelt. These changes have continued since the enactment of the Greenbelt Act, 2005. POLICY FRAMEWORK As discussed in this section, the Greenbelt Plan is one part of Ontario's land use planning framework. One vital policy tool for maintaining natural cover in both the Growth Plan and the Greenbelt Plan is the NHS policies. Once a NHS is designated in a municipal Official Plan, any development or site alteration must meet certain policy requirements in the applicable provincial Plan. Observed land use changes within the Carruthers Creek portion of the Greenbelt include fill sites, road widenings, land clearing on existing lots, farming and non-farm business operations and vehicle and other storage. MOVING FORWARD This watershed plan identifies recommendations to strengthen municipal policies to protect the NHS, in accordance with provincial policy, and identifies opportunities for restoration programs. If community members are concerned about any development, large scale tree cutting or fill activities, please contact your local municipality, Region of Durham, or conservation authority for assistance. 13 Ontario's provincial planning policies recognize the importance of the Great Lakes'. Carruthers Creek flows into Lake Ontario. The series of Great Lakes agreements, legislation and policies set binational, national and provincial commitments to protect and restore the Great Lakes. This watershed plan is intended to improve the conditions within the Carruthers Creek watershed, thereby reducing negative impacts to Lake Ontario from this single watershed. Role of Municipalities Within the Greater Golden Horseshoe, most municipalities in Ontario are organized into two- tier systems. Upper -tier municipalities, such as the Region of Durham, are comprised of several lower -tier municipalities. The role of regional government is to address issues and concerns that apply to broader geographic areas, crossing the borders of lower -tier municipalities. For land use planning, regional government's primary planning tool is a Regional Official Plan (ROP). The ROP implements the requirements of any relevant provincial legislation, provincial plans, and the PPS. Area municipalities develop their own, more detailed Official Plans (and may include more detailed secondary plans, Part II Plans, or tertiary plans as the case may be), as well as implementing zoning by-laws. While the ROP is required to implement provincial policy, area municipal planning tools are required to conform with both Regional and provincial policy. Municipalities are granted decision-making powers through the Municipal Act and Planning Act. Watershed planning helps municipalities to make informed decisions on where and how to grow, while identifying opportunities to improve natural watershed conditions (e.g. restoration opportunities). Role of TRCA Conservation authorities were established and granted responsibilities under the Conservation Authorities Act. Conservation authorities play an important role in land use planning and environmental protection processes in partnership with municipalities, but are not the decision -makers in land use and infrastructure planning. Conservation authorities deliver programs and services related to natural hazard protection and management (i.e. flooding), conservation and management of conservation authority lands, drinking water source protection (as prescribed under the Clean Water Act, 2006), and conserving natural resources. Through its watershed expertise, TRCA, in partnership with the Region of Durham, Town of Ajax, and City of Pickering, has developed this watershed plan to help inform land use and infrastructure planning decisions. 'The PPS identifies the importance of considering the priorities identified in various agreements related to the protection or restoration of the Great Lakes — St. Lawrence River Basin. The Growth Plan and Greenbelt Plan require the consideration of the Great Lakes Strategy and the Great Lakes Protection Act, 2015, and any applicable Great Lakes agreements as part of watershed planning. 14 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan 1.2 LOCAL CONTEXT AND CONSIDERATIONS Carruthers Creek is a relatively small watershed with a drainage area of approximately 38 km2, ranging from 2-3 km in width and 18 km in length, and occurs within the South Slope and glacial Lake Iroquois physiographic regions. It is the easternmost watershed in TRCA's jurisdiction and is bordered by the Duffins Creek watershed to the west and the Lynde Creek watershed in the east. The watershed has approximately 41,000 residents and is located entirely within the Region of Durham. Carruthers Creek's headwaters form to the south of the Oak Ridges Moraine, in the City of Pickering, and the creek enters Lake Ontario in the Town of Ajax. The watershed is mainly rural north of Highway 7 and urbanized south of Taunton Road to the Lakeshore. From Highway 7 south to Taunton Road, most lands are in the protected countryside designation of the provincial Greenbelt Plan. Carruthers Creek watershed consists of four subwatersheds, for the purposes of this watershed plan. Subwatersheds are defined as areas drained by a tributary, or portion of the stream, and are a more geographically specific scale than watersheds. Some of the technical analyses conducted as part of this watershed planning process used the four subwatersheds identified in Figure 3 to evaluate the conditions of the watershed from a more refined geographic location. The previous 2003 Duffins and Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan evaluated existing watershed conditions and identified recommendations to protect, restore, and enhance the natural systems and water quality of Carruthers Creek. The issues identified in the 2003 plan are still prevalent in the Carruthers Creek watershed, such as the need to protect and restore natural areas, improve stormwater management and address water quality concerns. Since 2003, the Carruthers Creek watershed has undergone significant changes associated with urbanization and the impacts of climate change (See Section 3 for more information). Since many of the issues identified in the previous watershed plan are still occurring, an updated watershed plan using the latest advancements in watershed science, monitoring programs and computer modelling was necessary. Periodic reviews of watershed plans are an integral component of the watershed planning process and allow for adaptive management to incorporate new scientific approaches and to address emerging initiatives. This watershed plan update is also more reflective of current provincial policies around watershed planning, which have evolved since the 2003 plan. At the request of the Region of Durham, a small section of lands in the East Duffins Creek subwatershed, which are immediately adjacent to Carruthers Creek watershed and outside of the provincial Greenbelt, were included in the study area to provide a more complete analysis of lands in the area. However, only watershed planning processes that occur at the regional, rather than the watershed scale, were assessed (i.e. NHS planning and groundwater modelling), as these processes extend beyond the watershed boundary. 15 FIGURE 3: Carruthers Creek Subwatersheds -4 0,006' 044 AI' i NW 5ry 50, Toronto and Region 1' Conservation Aut6odtp Date: Janurary 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. 16 N s L• . KT, ti'r'`� ile 6- h rir�-ix'E Central Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Subwatersheds 0 0.5 1 2 3 KM � trst t^' South Subwatershed Boundary Central NE NW South — Intermittent Streams — Permanent Streams IZ'Carruthers Watershed Boundary MCarruthers Watershed Plan Study Area The development of this Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan was a multi-year process completed in the following sequence: • Field work on existing watershed conditions (2015-2016) • Watershed characterization technical reports completed (2017) — See Section 3 for the results of watershed characterization. • Potential future scenarios modelling and analysis undertaken (2018) • Scenario analysis technical reports completed (2019) — See Section 4 for information on the potential future scenarios and results • Water Resource and Natural Heritage Systems identified (2019) — See Section 2 for more information on these systems • Management framework for Carruthers Creek developed (2019) — See Section 5 for the Carruthers Creek management framework 1.3 PARTNERS AND STAKEHOLDERS In 2015, the Region of Durham engaged TRCA to develop a watershed plan for Carruthers Creek. The key partners involved in the process to develop this watershed plan are TRCA, the Region of Durham, the Town of Ajax and the City of Pickering. Throughout the multi-year process discussed in Subsection 1.2, TRCA engaged the Mississaugas of Scugog Island, stakeholders and the public to raise awareness of the watershed planning process and solicit feedback on components of this watershed plan. Stakeholders engaged include watershed residents, landowners, farmers, developers, golf course operators and environmental non-governmental organizations. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Stakeholders were engaged at various points during this watershed planning process, as follows: LATE 2015 — LATE 2017 Promoted and raised awareness of the watershed planning process for Carruthers Creek through reports and presentations to Councils and Committees of the Region of Durham, Town of Ajax, and City of Pickering. LATE 2017 — EARLY 2019 Continued to raise awareness of the watershed planning process for Carruthers Creek and gathered feedback from the public on a vision for the watershed plan. This was completed by launching an interactive website and hosting information booths at various events across the watershed. MID 2019 — LATE 2019 Gathered feedback on the draft management framework for the Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan from partners and stakeholders. Two public open houses were held in October 2019. Feedback received from partners and stakeholders was invaluable in the development of this watershed plan. The Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan reflects the diversity of issues and concerns raised throughout the planning process and represents a realistic and manageable plan to improve the overall health of the Carruthers Creek watershed. All the partners and stakeholders engaged as part of this process play a key role in the effective implementation of the management recommendations identified in Section 5. 17 2. Water Resource and Natural Heritage Systems The aquatic and terrestrial features and areas that maintain the ecological integrity of a watershed consist of two integrated systems, the WRS and NHS. Together, these two systems provide essential ecosystem services, including water storage and filtration, cleaner air, support to biodiversity and habitats, carbon storage, as well as resiliency to climate change. Maintaining extensive, connected and high-quality ecological and hydrological features and areas of both systems is essential for the long-term health and sustainability of Carruthers Creek, as shown in Figure 1. As mentioned in Subsection 1.1, identifying and protecting both systems is a key policy requirement in the Growth Plan and Greenbelt Plan. 18 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan The features and areas that comprise both systems are explained in Table 1 below. TABLE 1: Description of the Water Resource System and Natural Heritage System Water Resource System Natural Heritage System A system consisting of groundwater features and areas A system made up of natural heritage features and and surface water features (including shoreline areas), and hydrologic functions, which provide the water areas, and linkages identified to provide connectivity (at the regional or site level) and support natural resources necessary to sustain healthy aquatic and processes which are necessary to maintain biological terrestrial ecosystems and human water consumption. and geological diversity, natural functions, viable populations of indigenous species, and ecosystems. The WRS consists of: The NHS consists of*: Key Hydrologic Areas • Significant Wetlands* • Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas (including • Significant Coastal Wetlands Ecologically Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas) • Other Coastal Wetlands in Ecoregions 5E, 6E and 7E • Highly Vulnerable Aquifers • Fish habitat* • Significant Surface Water Contribution Areas • Significant Woodlands • Significant Valleylands in Ecoregions 6E and 7E Key Hydrologic Features (excluding islands in Lake Huron and the St. Mary's • Permanent Streams River) • Intermittent Streams • Habitat of Endangered Species and Threatened • Inland Lakes and their Littoral Zones Species • Seepage Areas and Springs • Significant Wildlife Habitat • Wetlands* • Significant Areas of Natural and Scientific Interest (ANSIs) • Sand barrens, savannahs, tallgrass prairies and alvars • Federal or provincial parks, and conservation reserves *Notes: Wetlands are important features in both systems. For the purposes of mapping in Section 7, wetlands are shown separately in Map 1A for the WRS and included as natural cover in Map 2 for the NHS. Fish habitat in the NHS overlaps with features and areas in the WRS. The majority of these terms are defined in the Growth Plan, 2019. Some, but not all definitions, have been included in the Glossary (Section 8) of this watershed plan. Not all of the NHS features or areas identified in this table are part of the proposed enhanced NHS for Carruthers Creek, since some of these features do not exist in this watershed (e.g. sand barrens, savannahs, etc.), or are not distinguished specifically from natural cover areas (e.g. significant woodlands and significant wildlife habitat). Due to the importance of both systems, the protection, enhancement and restoration of the WRS and NHS are goals of this watershed plan (Section 5). See Section 7 for maps of the WRS and the recommended NHS. 19 How the WRS was delineated? The key hydrologic areas and key hydrologic features that comprise the WRS were delineated using various techniques and methodologies. Highly Vulnerable Aquifers and Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas were determined through Technical Rules established under the Clean Water Act, 2006 for the purposes of regional source water protection planning. Ecologically Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas (ESGRAs) were determined using a model developed by the Oak Ridges Moraine Groundwater Program to optimize the protection of groundwater dependent ecosystems. The model results for ESGRAs were assessed to minimize the land area covered by these key hydrologic areas while maintaining a high degree of hydrological function protection for these ecosystems. Significant Surface Water Contribution Areas include many of the intermittent streams in the headwaters (northern portion) of Carruthers Creek. Each of the five key hydrologic features were delineated using a combination of satellite imagery, ArcHydro GIS and field site verification. Protecting the WRS and NHS The WRS provides habitat for aquatic life (e.g. fish). The conditions of aquatic habitat in Carruthers Creek were assessed as part of this watershed planning process. How the NHS was delineated? The components of the NHS were delineated using a robust methodology that incorporated ecological models (e.g. Landscape Analysis Model), information from satellite imagery, monitoring data, field site verification and expert based knowledge. The components of the NHS were identified for their ecological value as existing and potential natural cover (i.e. areas targeted for restoration and enhancement), to: • Increase natural cover (e.g. forests, wetlands, meadows, etc.) quantity and quality by improving habitat size, shape, and connectivity in and around existing natural areas, as well as in areas for potential restoration; • Protect and restore species and vegetation communities by incorporating diverse habitat types, mitigating the impacts of urban development, and improving the ecological connectivity across the watershed; and • Incorporate natural system vulnerabilities to climate change in planning processes to build a more resilient NHS. As mentioned in Subsection 1.2, provincial policies recognize the importance of protecting the WRS and NHS. Municipalities are required to demonstrate how these systems will be protected. Through its technical and scientific expertise, TRCA delineated both systems as part of this watershed planning process. For the recommended NHS, the areas identified as potential natural cover (enhancement areas) should be restored to maintain the long-term resiliency and sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems, in addition to protecting the existing natural cover. TRCA's Terrestrial Natural Heritage System Strategy has a minimum target of 30% natural cover across the entire jurisdiction, while recognizing there will be variability among TRCA's nine watersheds due to existing land uses. The Carruthers Creek watershed is currently below that target (see Subsection 3.3 for more information). The management framework (Section 5) of this watershed plan, recognizes that land use and/or infrastructure decisions may impact, or occur, within the WRS or NHS, and establishes recommendations to avoid these features and areas, mitigate impacts, or when impacts are unavoidable, provide for ecosystem compensation. Municipalities are responsible for designating a NHS that is consistent with provincial policies and informed by the goals and objectives of this watershed plan. 20 3. Existing Watershed Conditions Watershed characterization is a vital part of watershed planning, which helps to determine the current conditions of the watershed. As part of this watershed plan, TRCA produced technical reports on different components of the watershed, which are summarized in this section. 21 3.1 CONTEXT AND BACKGROUND Since the previous watershed plan is from 2003, the existing conditions of the watershed were evaluated using more recent data and science. TRCA produced eight peer-reviewed technical reports as part of watershed characterization. These technical reports helped determine the current state of the watershed, as discussed in Subsection 3.3. Watershed characterization includes the following topics (see full technical reports listed in Section 9): Aquatic Crossing and Barrier Assessment Involved the assessment of existing structures in Carruthers Creek that represent barriers to fish passage, such as perched culverts and online ponds. Aquatic Habitat and Community Characterization Involved the assessment of aquatic habitat conditions, stream temperature, fish community richness and composition, and benthic invertebrate richness and composition. Fluvial Geomorphology Involved the assessment of the creek's flow and sediment movement processes, drainage patterns, and potential erosion risks. Headwater Drainage Features Involved the assessment of small streams in the upper portions of the watershed that may not flow year-round (i.e. intermittent and ephemeral). These features provide hydrologic and ecological functions to maintain downstream watershed conditions. 22 Hydrogeology Involved the assessment of groundwater conditions within the watershed, such as groundwater recharge and discharge, and groundwater flow and quality. Surface Water Quality Characterization Involved the assessment of current and past water quality conditions to determine trends and factors influencing water quality. Terrestrial Natural Heritage Involved the assessment of natural cover, terrestrial habitat and species across the watershed. Water Quantity Characterization Involved the assessment of the volume, velocity, spatial distribution and timing of water moving through the stream network (i.e. streamflow). 3.2 HISTORICAL AND CURRENT LAND USES Ongoing urbanization in the Greater Toronto Area continues to convert natural and agricultural lands to other uses. This is true in the Carruthers Creek watershed as well. In 1999, the watershed consisted of 28% natural cover, 53% agricultural lands, and 12% urban area6. As of 2015, natural cover had dropped to 25% and agricultural lands to 34%. Urban land use increased to approximately 37% during that time period. See Figure 2 for a map of 2015 land use conditions. This historical context is important for characterizing the current conditions of the watershed as it helps to understand the rate of change within the watershed and provides a useful benchmark for comparison. 3.3 CURRENT STATE OF THE WATERSHED Based on the technical assessments conducted as part of watershed characterization (discussed in Subsection 3.1), there are four key issues in Carruthers Creek: 0 WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM: the aquatic ecosystem is sensitive and near the level of land use development it can sustain long-term (without additional and improved mitigation). The current state of the WRS includes assessments of headwater drainage features, fish communities, instream barriers to fish movement and groundwater. The analysis of the small stream features north of Highway 7 (i.e. headwater drainage features), showed that 67% of the features have been altered (i.e. reducing hydrologic connectivity and increasing surface runoff) in some way by human activities, primarily through tile drainage. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Tile Drainage Tile drainage is a common and important land management practice in many agricultural parts of Ontario. Tile drains are corrugated plastic tubing, clay or concrete drains installed beneath the surface of fields to drain excess water from the crop root zone. Working with the agricultural community is important to identify opportunities to mitigate the potential impacts of tile drainage. Consult the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, or the Ontario Soil and Crop Improvement Association for more information. 6Additional land use categories such as water, recreational, golf courses, cemeteries and hydro corridors make up the remaining percentages not included in the categories of natural, agricultural and urban land uses. 23 Currently, the fish communities within the watershed are dominated by cool water native species. Redside Dace, an endangered species, is currently found within the watershed. Urbanization results in impervious land cover (i.e. pavement, or areas where water cannot penetrate the ground). Imperviousness can increase the severity and duration of peak flows during storm events, cause erosion and sedimentation, and increase stream temperatures, which impacts aquatic habitat for all species. Some areas of the watershed are impacted by poor water quality, which negatively impacts the aquatic ecosystem (see key issue number three, water quality for more information). Existing instream barriers to fish movement associated with development and infrastructure adversely impacts the aquatic system in Carruthers Creek by limiting access to feeding and spawning areas, increasing water temperature, and affecting sediment transport. Instream structures that act as barriers to fish passage include dams, weirs, road and rail crossings, and some culverts. From a groundwater perspective, there are three aquifer systems present in the watershed. These aquifer systems include one shallow system (Oak Ridges Moraine/ Mackinaw Interstadial aquifer complex) and two deep systems (Thorncliffe and Scarborough aquifer complexes). Long-term groundwater quality information for specific sites within the Carruthers Creek watershed are unavailable, but there have been a number of studies conducted in adjacent watersheds to provide an indication of background groundwater quality. The available information from Duffins Creek and Rouge River indicate elevated levels of nitrates and chlorides in groundwater attributed to road salts and fertilizer use. Maintaining the flow between groundwater and surface water (i.e. recharge and discharge) is essential for a healthy watershed. 24 0 NATURAL HERITAGE SYSTEM: there is not enough natural cover, or good quality habitat, needed to maintain ecosystem resilience (i.e. capacity to respond to change) due to changing land use patterns and climate change. As of 2015, approximately 25% of the watershed consisted of natural cover. Approximately 9% of that natural cover is forest, 7% wetland, 4% successional (transitioning to forest), and 3% meadow'. Current habitat conditions are overall poor in terms of patch size, shape and influences from surrounding land uses. In addition to this assessment of natural cover within the watershed, TRCA also conducted terrestrial inventories of plants and animals. These inventories found 845 vascular plant species, of which only 57% are native species. These results indicate a significant presence of invasive species, such as dog -strangling vine, garlic mustard, and common buckthorn. The inventory also identified 153 flora species of regional conservation concern including four species that have not been found anywhere else in TRCA's jurisdiction. Inventories documented a total of 133 breeding vertebrate fauna species over the past decade comprised of 106 breeding birds, 18 mammals, and 9 herpetofauna (i.e. reptiles and amphibians). The urban forest within the Carruthers Creek watershed contains 94 types of woody plant species, with over 270 varieties. Maples make up the most common type of tree within the watershed. In 2017, approximately 23% of the watershed consisted of tree and shrub canopy. 7The remaining natural cover percentages are around, or less than, one percent, consisting of water, hydro corridors, and beach/bluff. Urban Forest (tree cover) •motip o r 1 r 11111.11111111118 1r MI. r 1 11 I ®® ER ®® FR I 11 1 o 1► hui )r41r A W�L . FIGURE 4 Comparing Urban Forest and Natural Cover Natural cover Forest cover 1 Difference between urban forest and natural cover The term urban forest is used to describe the trees and woody shrubs located on all private and public property within a watershed, including urbanized spaces (e.g. along roads) and in forests. The percentage of urban forest within a watershed is determined by the area covered by the canopies of all trees and shrubs. Natural cover, expressed in hectares, or as a percentage of the overall watershed area, is the area of the watershed covered by natural habitats including forests, meadows, and wetlands. Natural cover includes habitats with varying degrees of trees and shrubs. Meadows for example are open habitats that do not contain trees. Although meadows, and other non -treed habitats, are natural cover, they are not part of the urban forest. Similarly, the urban forest includes trees located within built portions of the watershed, outside of natural habitats. For these reasons, the amount of natural cover and the amount of urban forest in a watershed will not be equal as is the case of the Carruthers Creek Watershed. See Figure 4 for a visual representation of this explanation. 25 0 WATER QUALITY: is impaired within the watershed, requiring improvements to stormwater management. The headwaters of Carruthers Creek contain elevated concentrations of total phosphorus, phosphate, total ammonia, E. coli, total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity, and some trace metals. These elevated concentrations in the headwaters were likely influenced by agricultural practices and the construction of Highway 407. Just upstream of urban development, concentrations were reduced for most parameters except chloride. Chloride levels regularly exceeded the threshold for the protection of aquatic life in the reaches of Carruthers Creek with urban influences. Additionally, increased concentrations of total ammonia, nitrite, phosphate, turbidity, and trace metals are often observed downstream of the urban area. As expected, the concentrations of many water quality parameters were elevated during high flow conditions that occur during storm runoff and wet weather. Prior to the 1980s, stormwater management focused solely on flood control (stormwater quantity). Modern stormwater management provides a higher level of protection for the environment, property, and residents by incorporating mitigation provisions for water quality, erosion, and water balance in addition to water quantity control. The Carruthers Creek watershed has various levels of stormwater control that are indicative of the age of development and the prevailing stormwater management practices at the time. 26 0 NATURAL HAZARDS: the flow of water through the watershed is out of balance and there are flooding and erosion issues. Urbanization converts formerly pervious surfaces (e.g. forests, meadows, agricultural lands) to impervious surfaces (e.g. roads, parking lots, rooftops). From 1999 to present day, the increase in urban cover has greatly altered the natural water balance. In addition, existing agricultural lands located in the headwaters of the watershed are extensively tile drained. Several sites with erosion issues were identified as part of the fluvial geomorphic assessment. During storm events, the increase in surface runoff associated with impervious surfaces can result in excessive riverine flooding and stream erosion. Currently, a Flood Vulnerable Cluster (FVC) exists in the lower part of the Carruthers Creek watershed in the Town of Ajax (see Figure 2 or 5 for the location of this FVC). There have been both historical and recent flooding events in the Carruthers Creek watershed due to extreme precipitation events. These four key issues provide the basis for the management framework of this watershed plan, discussed in Section 5. Table 2 summarizes benchmarks for the four key watershed issues previously discussed. The benchmarks are important reference points for understanding how watershed conditions can change over time to evaluate success of this watershed plan. Table 2 also identifies targets (or rating scales) to show the ideal state of that particular watershed component. The targets are informed by relevant TRCA strategies, provincial or federal guidance, and established conservation science. The scenario analysis, described in Subsection 4.3, summarizes how the watershed will respond to potential future scenarios in comparison to the benchmarks. Section 6 uses indicators to evaluate the success of implementation through a watershed monitoring program. The indicators identified in Section 6 will track watershed conditions relative to the benchmarks discussed in Table 2. Where a monitoring station is referenced in Table 2, see Figure 7 for the location of that monitoring station within the watershed. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan TABLE 2: Current Watershed Conditions Benchmarks Key Watershed Issues Sub -Issue Benchmarks Targets (if applicable) WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM Aquatic Health Family Biotic Index (FBI)8- rating of fairly poor and poor across Carruthers Creek: • Poor = 6.59 (Average from 2013 - 2017 at monitoring station Aquatic 1) • Fairly poor = 6.19 (Average from 2013 - 2017 at monitoring station Aquatic 2) • Fairly poor = 6.07 (Average from 2013 - 2017 at monitoring station Aquatic 3) Index of Biotic Integrity (181)9: • Rating of poor at three sites (2015) Rating of fair at two sites (2015) Rating of good at six sites (2015) Rating scale for FBI: Value Rating 0 - 3.75 Excellent 3.76 - 4.25 Very good 4.26 - 5.00 Good 5.01 - 5.75 Fair 5.76 - 6.50 Fairly poor 6.51 - 7.25 Poor 7.26 -10 Very poor Rating scale for IBI: Value Rating 38 Very good 28 - 37.9 Good 20 - 27.9 Fair <_20 - 5.75 Poor Riparian corridor (30 m buffer around streams) Within the riparian corridor natural cover is 49%. 75% of stream length is naturally vegetated Streamflow (surface water) Carruthers Creek at Achilles Road had an average total volume of 1.14 x 10' m3 over the 2008 - 2016 period. This corresponds to a discharge rate of 0.360 m3/s when averaged on an annual basis. Not applicable (should not vary significantly from natural fluctuations year to year) Groundwater Recharge Average recharge rate is estimated at 118 mm/year Not applicable (should not decrease significantly from natural rates) Groundwater Discharge Average discharge rate is estimated at 130 mm/year Not applicable (should not decrease significantly from natural rates) 'The Family Biotic Index is often used to assess the quality of water in rivers and is a scale for showing the quality of an environment by indicating the types of organisms present in it. 'The Index of Biotic Integrity measures a chosen set of metrics (in this case number of fish species, presence of sensitive fish species, abundance and food chain classifications) to assign a rating of very poor to excellent. 27 Key Watershed Issues NATURAL HERITAGE SYSTEM WATER QUALITY (SURFACE) Water quality benchmarks are based on average concentration of 17 water quality samples collected monthly from June 2015 to May 2016. 28 Sub -Issue Natural cover Habitat quality Animal (i.e. fauna) species of concern Number and area of sensitive vegetation communities Tree and Shrub Canopy (urban forest) Chlorides Total suspended solids Benchmarks Approximately 25% total natural cover, consisting of 9% forest, 7% wetland, 4% successional (transitioning to forest) and 3% meadow. Evaluated using Landscape Analysis Model (LAM), which assigns a score based on total number of habitat patches, patch size, patch shape, and influences from surrounding land uses. Overall patch quality in the Carruthers Creek watershed was found to be 'poor'. North of Taunton Road = 39 South of Taunton Road = 56 Entire watershed number = 43 Area = approximately 54 hectares Approximately 23% tree and shrub canopy for the entire watershed (2017). • 183 mg/L at monitoring station Water Quality 1 • 72 mg/L at monitoring station Water Quality 2 • 35 mg/L at a no longer active monitoring station that was located west of Salem Road at Hwy7 • 20 mg/L at monitoring station Water Quality 1 • 11 mg/L at monitoring station Water Quality 2 • 59 mg/L at a no longer active monitoring station that was located west of Salem Road at Hwy7 Targets (if applicable) Minimum 30% natural cover. TRCA recommended NHS for Carruthers Creek: 36% natural cover; 16% forest, 7% wetland, 13% other (primarily successional forest and meadow) Rating scale: Patch Score Quality Condition 13-15 Excellent 11 - 12 Good 9-10 Fair 6-8 Poor 0-5 Very poor Not applicable (ideally maintained or improved) Not applicable (ideally maintained or improved) Not applicable (targets to be established through management recommendation 3.3.2) The long-term water quality guideline for the protection of aquatic life (CCME) for chlorides is 120 mg/L. CCME water quality guideline for TSS is based on increases over background levels. Monitoring results show large fluctuations in TSS in Carruthers Creek. Key Watershed Issues WATER QUALITY (SURFACE) cont'd NATURAL HAZARDS Sub -Issue E. coli Total phosphorus Stormwater management10 Peak flows (flooding) Flood vulnerable roads and structures Benchmarks • 706 CFU/100 ml at monitoring station Water Quality 1 • 517 CFU/100 ml at monitoring station Water Quality 2 • 475 CFU/100 ml at a no longer active monitoring station that was located west of Salem Road at Hwy 7 • 0.044 mg/L at monitoring station Water Quality 1 • 0.031 mg/L at monitoring station Water Quality 2 • 0.091 mg/L at a no longer active monitoring station that was located west of Salem Road at Hwy 7 As of 2003, approximately 64% of the developed portion of the watershed has stormwater controls that meet TRCA criteria. Of the remaining percentages, 29% have no stormwater controls and 7% have water quantity control only. Regional Storm (i.e. Hurricane Hazel) • 71.61 m3/s at Taunton Road • 140.52 m3/s at Shoal Point Road 5 -year Storm (i.e. 1 in 5 probability of flow being exceeded in any one year) • 7.27 m3/s at Taunton Road • 11.00 m3/s at Shoal Point Road Metres of impassable road length affected: • Average annual = 91 m • Regulatory flood event = 2,532 m Number of households affected: • Average annual = 1 • Regulatory flood event = 89 Targets (if applicable) CFU — Colony Forming Units. Provincial Water Quality Objective (PWQO) for E. coli is 100 CFU/100 ml. Averages for Carruthers Creek exceed this guideline. PWQO to avoid excessive plant growth in river and stream concentrations below 0.03 mg/L. Averages for Carruthers Creek exceed this guideline. Established by municipalities, in collaboration with TRCA, through stormwater master planning and secondary planning Not applicable (peak flows should not increase) Not applicable (ideally a reduction in vulnerable roads and structures) Notes: See Section 6 for map and description of monitoring station locations referenced in this table. Other surface water quality parameters were characterized as part of TRCA's technical analysis, but only parameters of concern are included in this table. 10For the purposes of determining the current state of the watershed, stormwater management has been grouped with water quality. However, inadequate stormwater management can also increase the frequency and duration of flooding (i.e. natural hazards) and impact aquatic habitat (i.e. WRS). 29 4. Future Watershed Conditions An important part of watershed planning is assessing future conditions based on potential future land use scenarios. The results of watershed characterization discussed in Section 3 were used to inform the potential future land use scenarios discussed in this section. TRCA produced peer-reviewed technical reports on different components of the watershed as part of scenario analysis, which are referenced in Section 9. 4.1 FUTURE STRESSORS To determine what land use scenarios to assess requires identifying potential future stressors on a watershed. For Carruthers Creek, urbanization continues to drive land use change, converting natural and agricultural areas to residential, commercial and industrial lands. This urbanization impacts the health of a watershed largely through the loss of natural cover and increase in impermeable surfaces, which alter the hydrologic regime. Despite some positive watershed management efforts to date in Carruthers Creek, the watershed exhibits signs of stress due to the impacts of urbanization and climate change. By 2041, the population of the Region of Durham is expected to nearly double from 682,000 to 1.2 million. Some of that growth will certainly be in the Carruthers Creek watershed. 30 Climate change is expected to increase precipitation, annual average temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events, which will impact watersheds within the Region of Durham. Some of the implications of a changing climate include localized flooding, violent storm damage, changes to ecosystem composition, and changes to agricultural conditions and production. These stressors were evaluated as part of assessing future watershed conditions. The management framework in Section 5 of this watershed plan recognizes these stressors by identifying recommendations to mitigate potential future watershed impacts. 4.2 FUTURE SCENARIOS An effective way to assess how a watershed will respond to potential future change is to develop, analyze, and compare several alternate scenarios, each reflecting a different composition of possible land use conditions. In this way, land use scenario analysis is used as a tool to compare how possible future land uses might add to existing pressures on the natural system, and how these pressures might affect watershed health. Land use scenario analysis is a technical exercise that is typically undertaken when developing watershed plans to ensure management recommendations are based on the best available science. The results help guide the development of management recommendations and support municipalities in land use and infrastructure planning decision-making. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Climate Change Climate change was incorporated into the scenario analysis for various technical components of this watershed planning process, where possible. For example, the terrestrial impact assessment completed as part of the NHS planning specifically incorporated climate change vulnerabilities as one of its criteria for determining priority NHS sites. The impacts of future climate change were factored into potential stresses on the aquatic system as part of that technical assessment. Additionally, hydrologic modelling completed as part of this watershed planning process incorporates storm events considered to be more frequent under climate change scenarios. The management framework recognizes the importance of climate change by prioritizing the protection of the WRS and NHS, which can, if properly protected and restored, improve climate adaptation and increase ecosystem resilience. The use of green infrastructure and low impact development combined with improvements to stormwater infrastructure are also important management recommendations to adapt to a changing climate. TRCA, the Region of Durham, Town of Ajax and City of Pickering all recognize the challenge of climate change and have various strategies and action plans to address this challenge, in addition to the recommendations identified in this watershed plan (e.g. Durham Community Climate Adaptation Plan and Durham Community Climate Change Local Action Plan). Note: Additional climate modelling is being completed for the Region of Durham, in collaboration with conservation authorities, that can be used to inform future watershed or subwatershed studies. 31 Three potential future land use scenarios were developed and analyzed as part of this watershed planning process to assess possible changes and impacts in both the built and natural environments. The year 2015 was used as the baseline for this watershed planning process due to the availability of data sets at the initiation of this project. It is worth noting that since 2015 was used as the baseline for scenario analysis, potential impacts from the extension of Highway 407 (completed in 2016) through the headwaters of Carruthers Creek can only be assumed. Ongoing monitoring of the Carruthers Creek watershed will help determine any potential changes to overall watershed health arising from the construction of this highway infrastructure. TABLE 3: Potential Future Land Use Scenarios Scenario 1 (+Official Plan) This scenario assumes that all lands south of the Greenbelt are developed up to 2031 based on approved Official Plans. This scenario included municipally designated NHS's that were part of Official Plans. This scenario provides insight into how watershed conditions will likely change as approved Official Plans are implemented. This scenario assumes the same development as Scenario 1 but includes the enhanced NHS (i.e. potential natural cover). Scenario 2 New and updated information from natural heritage science and practice was incorporated to identify potential areas for natural cover that would improve (+NHS) ecosystem functions and services in the future. This scenario provides insights into how watershed conditions will likely change with increased consideration of additional natural cover. This scenario assumes post -2031 development in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek Scenario 3 (north of the Greenbelt), outside the enhanced NHS. (+Potential Urban) This scenario provides insights into how watershed conditions will likely change if potential full growth is approved in the watershed. See Figure 5 for representative maps of each scenario. 32 6 1 4 Scenario 3 a krona and Region onserva Lion Authprli Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Future Scenarios 1-3 0 0.5 1 2 3 KM Municipal Boundary �r Watercourse Land Use dir Natural Rural Urban Flood Vulnerable Cluster Greenbelt Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study Area 33 4.3 SCENARIO ANALYSIS As part of this watershed planning process, key components of watershed health were assessed using the previously discussed three future scenarios. The results of these scenario analyses were used to: O Understand the implications of each scenario on overall watershed health and integrity O Develop the management framework for this Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan, which can be used to inform land use and infrastructure decisions It is important to note that scenario analysis does not result in decisions about the type and configuration of land uses. Instead, scenario analysis helps to inform decisions through the municipal planning process (e.g. Official Plans). It is the responsibility of the applicable municipality to determine the ultimate land use configuration for any future changes within the watershed. 34 Table 4 explains the implications of the three potential future scenarios for each of the key watershed issues as identified in Subsection 3.3. Based on the technical assessments completed as part of this watershed planning process, Table 4 identifies whether the watershed responds positively (conditions improve), neutrally (conditions remain the same), or negatively (conditions deteriorate) to the potential future scenario in comparison to the identified benchmark. The colour coding in Table 4 indicates the severity of how the watershed component reacts: GREEN UP ARROW: >+5% change At indicates watershed conditions improve from a hydrologic or ecological perspective EQUAL SIGN: 0 to +5% or 0 to -5% change indicates a roughly equal comparison from a hydrologic or ecological perspective ' YELLOW DOWN ARROW: -6% to -10% change indicates watershed conditions deteriorate from a hydrologic or ecological perspective PURPLE DOWN ARROW: >-10%change 11 indicates watershed conditions significantly deteriorate from a hydrologic or ecological perspective The changes identified in Table 4 are calculated by comparing scenario 1 to the current conditions, whereas scenarios 2 and 3 are compared to scenario 1. Since scenario 1 represents the currently approved Official Plan, it represents a future scenario that will occur, therefore it is more realistic to compare scenarios 2 and 3 to scenario 1. Some of the scenario analysis technical reports referenced in Section 9 compare the three future scenarios to current conditions. The numbers identified in Table 4 have been adapted accordingly to compare scenarios 2 and 3 to scenario 1. TABLE 4: Scenario Analysis Implications WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM" Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Includes: the features and areas of the WRS, including aquatic habitat, and their functions. Percent change is based on changes to impervious cover mentioned under aquatic health. Impervious cover is a critical measure of various factors12 that impact aquatic health. See Figure 9 in Section 7 for an illustration of subwatershed quality. CURRENT CONDITIONS SCENARIO 1 (+OP) SCENARIO 2 (+NHS) (From subsection 3.313) (Compared to Current Conditions) (Compared to Scenario 1) SCENARIO 3 (+POTENTIAL URBAN) (Compared to Scenario 1) % change -6% +1% ♦-12% Aquatic Health Subwatershed quality: NW and NE good - fair; central and south fair - poor Impervious cover at 24% across the watershed Subwatershed quality: no change from current conditions Impervious cover at 30% across the watershed Subwatershed quality: NW shows improvement to good Impervious cover at 29% across the watershed Subwatershed quality: all four have fair - poor conditions Impervious cover at 42% across the watershed Riparian corridor (30 m buffer along streams) 49% natural cover along the corridor 50% natural cover along the corridor 65% natural cover along the corridor 65% natural cover along the corridor Streamflow (average surface water discharge) 0.52 m3/s 201 mm/year 152 mm/year 0.53 m3/s 0.53 m3/s Groundwater discharge (average rate) 197 mm/year 201 mm/year Groundwater recharge (average rate) 147 mm/year 152 mm/year 0.56 m3/s 194 mm/year 141 mm/year "This assessment does not consider protection measures for the WRS. For example, if impervious surfaces were minimized in groundwater recharge areas, hydrologic function would be maintained. 1'These factors include channel stability, water quality, stream biodiversity and natural flow. See the Aquatic Impact Assessment technical report for more information. 13The numbers for streamflow, groundwater discharge and recharge are different in table 4 from table 2 due to models used for the scenario analysis. 35 NATURAL HERITAGE SYSTEM Includes: the the features and areas of the NHS, including terrestrial habitat and their functions. Percent change is based on an equally weighted average of the total natural cover and habitat quality values. CURRENT CONDITIONS SCENARIO 1 (-i-OP) SCENARIO 2 (+NHS) (From subsection 3.3) (Compared to Current Conditions) (Compared to Scenario 1) SCENARIO 3 (+POTENTIAL URBAN) (Compared to Scenario 1) % change 25% natural cover 7.6 +1 % ♦+7% 14 G Alk +6% Total natural cover 25% natural cover 36% natural cover Habitat quality (average LAM15 score) 7.5 7.9 IlkHabitat connectivity (regional at watershed-scale)16 28% 28% 45% 36% natural cover 7.6 45% Climate vulnerabilities (average of five high vulnerabilities indicators)17 51% 51% 55% 55% "While habitat quantity (as represented by natural cover) increases under scenario 3 relative to scenario 1, the habitat quality results require a caveat. LAM scores are an equally rated average of patch size, shape and matrix influence. Under scenario 2, the matrix influence score increases threefold from scenario 1, indicating improved habitat quality. Under scenario 3, the matrix influence score decreases, indicating decrease in habitat quality. So, while patch size and shape increase under scenarios 2 and 3, scenario 3 negatively affects the matrix influence of habitat quality. 15These LAM scores, known as Landscape Analysis Model, combines the metrics of patch size (larger patches support larger populations), patch shape (habitat fragmentation) and matrix influence (influence of surrounding land uses). A LAM score of 6 — 8 = poor. See the Terrestrial Impact Assessment technical report for more information. 16Habitat connectivity values represent the percentage of area for connectivity priorities that overlap with the proposed enhanced NHS. Improved connectivity has benefits for habitat quantity and quality. In other words, higher percentages indicate more habitat connectivity corridors. 17The average high vulnerability indicators are ground surface temperature, climate sensitive community, habitat patch quality, soil drainage and wetlands. The climate vulnerabilities values represent the percentage of climate vulnerable features represented in the proposed enhanced NHS. A higher percentage indicates more habitat included in the system, and therefore, if protected, improved resiliency to climate change. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan WATER QUALITY'$ Focused on parameters of concern associated with urbanization and agricultural land uses. Amounts are based on a comparison of 2005 to 2015 average flow. CURRENT CONDITIONS SCENARIO 1 (+OP) SCENARIO 2 (+NHS) (From subsection 3.3) (Compared to Current Conditions) (Compared to Scenario 1) SCENARIO 3 (+POTENTIAL URBAN) (Compared to Scenario 1) % change -* It is difficult to draw a conclusion on the percent change for water quality solely. As mentioned in the WRS row of this table, water quality is one of the factors considered under the impacts of impervious cover. Of the parameters of concern identified in Table 2, TSS and total phosphorus were assessed as part of scenario analysis. Total Suspended Solids" 4,602 tonnes 4,674 tonnes 4,641 tonnes 4,939 tonnes Total Phosphorus20 9,843 tonnes : 9,864 tonnes 9,295 tonnes 8,602 tonnes 'aStream water quality in urbanized watersheds is generally degraded by increased turbidity, nutrients, metals, E. coli and other contaminants due to more impervious surfaces and increased runoff. See the Aquatic Impact Assessment technical report for more information. "Table 2 in Subsection 3.3 identified T55 readings at three monitoring stations in mg/L. For the purposes of scenario analysis, TSS was measured in tonnes at the outlet of the watershed (i.e. where it drains into Lake Ontario). 2OTable 2 in Subsection 3.3 identified total phosphorus readings at three monitoring stations in mg/L. For the purposes of scenario analysis, total phosphorus was measured in tonnes at the outlet of the watershed (i.e. where it drains into Lake Ontario). ,1111999 • NATURAL HAZARDS (Flooding and Erosion) Focused on flood modelling as measured by peak flows21. Percent change is based on an average from both locations for the regional storm only (as the worst-case scenario). CURRENT CONDITIONS SCENARIO 1 (+OP) SCENARIO 2 (+NHS) (From subsection 3.3) (Compared to Current Conditions) (Compared to Scenario 1) SCENARIO 3 (+POTENTIAL URBAN) (Compared to Scenario 1) % change -2% 0% 22 -77% Regional Storm (i.e. Hurricane Hazel) 71.61 m3/s at Taunton Road 69.90 m3/s at Taunton Road 68.59 m3/s at Taunton Road 148.84 m3/s at Taunton Road 140.52 m3/s at Shoal Point Road 149.50 m3/s at Shoal Point Road 147.19 m3/s at Shoal Point Road 210.63 m3/s at Shoal Point Road 5 -year Storm (i.e. 1 in 5 probability of flow being exceeded in any one year) 7.27 m3/s at Taunton Road 7.18 m3/s at Taunton Road 6.58 m3/s at Taunton Road 6.80 m3/s at Taunton Road 11.00 m3/s at Shoal Point Road 11.71 m3/s at Shoal Point Road 11.11 m3/s at Shoal Point Road 11.83 m3/s at Shoal Point Road 21 Peak flows are the maximum rate of discharge during the period of runoff caused by a storm. Potential erosion issues were not assessed. However, erosion is likely to be worse with increased peak flows. 22The flood modelling completed as part of scenario analysis did not factor in potential mitigation measures (e.g. modern stormwater infrastructure). 11 INP, • • , • , • , • , Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Table 4 illustrates expected changes to watershed conditions based on available information and assessments conducted as part of this watershed planning process. The management framework in Section 5 identifies what is necessary to protect, enhance and restore watershed conditions. It also identifies management recommendations to encourage more sustainable land uses. Summary of implications: • One of the four subwatersheds shows improved aquatic conditions under scenario 2. Conversely, all four subwatersheds have fair — poor aquatic conditions under scenario 3, likely resulting in the loss of Redside Dace, a listed endangered species, within the Carruthers Creek watershed. • The amount of natural cover and habitat quality improves under scenario 2. Under scenario 3, the amount of natural cover improves, while habitat quality decreases compared to scenario 2 due to the influence of surrounding urban development. • Water quality is currently impaired in the watershed for parameters like chloride, phosphorus, TSS and E. coli. Without improvements to land use practices, salt and stormwater management, water quality is likely to continue to deteriorate with increased urbanization (scenario 3). • There are existing flooding issues in the watershed, which will significantly increase under scenario 3 without the implementation of considerable mitigation measures. The hydrologic assessment shows a reduction in peak flows associated with the recommended NHS for smaller design storms (i.e. 2 -year storm). These hypothetical future scenarios are illustrative of potential watershed conditions. In addition to the summary of implications, it is important to recognize the following: • Protecting, enhancing and restoring the recommended NHS provides vital watershed benefits as illustrated by Scenario 2 and is consistent with targets as identified in Table 2. • Limiting impervious cover in any potential future growth areas, or through redevelopments, provides significant benefits to aquatic biodiversity. Federal guidance recommends urbanizing watersheds maintain less than 10% impervious land cover, while already degraded urban systems should not exceed a second threshold of 25 to 30%. Scenario 1 shows impervious cover reaching this 30% threshold with only a marginal improvement to 29% under Scenario 2. See Figure 9 in Section 7 for more information. The management framework developed as part of this watershed plan contains recommendations to improve watershed conditions regardless of potential future land use decisions. The management 39 5. Management Framework The management framework for the Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan represents what needs to be done to protect, enhance and restore watershed health23. The management framework consists of goals, objectives, indicators and management recommendations. TRCA developed this management framework in collaboration with its municipal partners and refined it based on feedback from stakeholders and the public. The goals, objectives and management recommendations were developed to address the issues identified through watershed characterization and account for potential different future land use scenarios. Many of the management recommendations are expected to mitigate many of the potential impacts associated with potential land use changes, as identified through the scenario analysis. Each of the goals are complementary, with no one goal being more important than another. To fully realize the vision for Carruthers Creek will require the implementation of each goal area. Management recommendations were grouped under the most appropriate objective and are also listed in no particular order. Any recommendations contained in the scenario analysis technical reports are consolidated in this management framework. Refer to the technical reports for detailed methodologies and findings beyond what was summarized in Sections 3 and 4. This watershed plan is the final source for goals, objectives, indicators and management recommendations related to Carruthers Creek. Readers are encouraged to refer to the technical reports for more detailed implementation suggestions. 23As mentioned in Subsection 1.1, the CTC Source Protection Plan also applies in the Carruthers Creek watershed and includes policies to protect drinking water. Implementation of this Source Protection Plan is required under the Clean Water Act, 2006. Consideration of Great Lakes agreements and legislation is also important for effective watershed management. These requirements are in addition to, and complementary of, the management framework identified in this watershed plan. 40 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan TABLE 5: Management Framework Explanation Management Framework Components Description GOALS Represent the outcomes to achieve. OBJECTIVES Are the specific statements about desired results, or steps to be undertaken, to achieve the goal. INDICATORS Explain how progress on implementing the objective is going to be tracked or measured. Some indicators are compared to the benchmarks identified in Table 2. Other indicators are about reporting on implementation progress as it relates to policies, best practices, or infrastructure improvements and do not have an associated benchmark in Table 2. Where applicable, the targets identified in Table 2 can be used as a measure to achieve. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS Specifically explain what should be done to accomplish the relevant objective. The management framework consists of three goals, nine objectives and 11 indicators (see Figure 6). The management recommendations for each goal area are described in Subsections 5.1 — 5.3. The management recommendations apply to the entire watershed; identifying opportunities to improve conditions in the developed portion of the watershed and the types of studies and best practices that should be utilized for any potential future development, or redevelopment. Subsection 5.4 summarizes recommendations that would specifically apply to any potential Settlement Area Boundary Expansion in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek. 41 FIGURE 6: Overview of Management Framework Land Use Achieve sustainable land use and infrastructure development patterns to protect, enhance and restore water quality and maintain stable water balance. 11111 111!21Il1 GOAL 2 ISI OBJECTIVE 1 Minimize the impacts of land uses through sustainability policies and the use of low impact development and green infrastructure. Indicators: Report on implementation of sustainable development policies/standards OBJECTIVE 2 Install and upgrade stormwater infrastructure using best available technologies to reduce runoff; resulting in improved water balance and water quality. Indicators: Report on the status of stormwater management OBJECTIVE 3 Manage the risks of natural hazards through appropriate mitigation measures and restoration. Indicators: Reduce number of flood vulnerable structures and roads OBJECTIVE 4 Encourage the use of agricultural best management practices to minimize agricultural runoff and improve rural land stewardship. Indicators: Work with the agricultural community to track implementation of best management practices Water Resource System Protect, enhance and restore the areas and features that make up the Water Resource System (including aquatic habitat) for ecosytem resilience and sustainabilty. OBJECTIVE 1 Implement appropriate policies and programs that protect, enhance and restore the areas and features that comprise the Water Resource System. Indicator: Appropriate policy designations are in place for the Water Resourse System OBJECTIVE 2 Promote aquatic habitat connectivity to faciltate native fish movement throughout the watershed. Indicator: Maintain, or improve, aquatic health rankings 0410 rIIP 4110 dr Natural Heritage System Protect, enhance and restore the Natural Heritage System and urban forest within the watershed to improve ecosystem resilience and sustainability. 42 OBJECTIVE 1 Improve the quality and quantity of the Natural Heritage System across the watershed through ecosystem protection, enhancement and restoration, and implementation of relevant policies. Indicators: Increase total natural cover in the watershed OBJECTIVE 2 Ensure habitat exists for native terrestrial species to thrive throughout the watershed. Indicators: Maintain, or increase, the number and area of species and vegetation communities of concern OBJECTIVE 3 Increase the urban forest cover within the developed portion of the watershed to improve social and environmental well-being. Indicator: 111110,111) Increase total tree canopy in the watershed Appropriate policy designations are in place for the Natural Heritage System Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan 5.1 LAND USE / INFRASTRUCTURE GOAL GOAL 1 Achieve sustainable land use and infrastructure development patterns to protect, enhance and restore water quality and maintain stable water balance. This goal area focuses on the policy, land use and infrastructure planning processes that influence the health of the watershed. The management recommendations are numbered to correspond with their applicable goal and objective. TABLE 6: Land Use Management Recommendations 43 LAND USE OBJECTIVE 1 Minimize the impacts of land uses through sustainability policies and the use of low impact development and green infrastructure. 1.1.1 Lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and TRCA, to adopt green development policies, or standards, and require new developments, and re -developments, to utilize low impact development and green infrastructure techniques to limit the impacts of increased impervious cover. The following should apply to any municipal policies, or standards, in particular within ESGRAs, as identified on map lb: a. new developments should minimize impervious cover and strive to achieve 90th percentile volume control of annual rainfall b. redevelopments should minimize impervious cover and strive to achieve 75th percentile volume control of annual rainfall 1.1.2 The Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with TRCA, to develop mechanisms to track and report on implementation of sustainable development practices to assess the effectiveness of policies and standards. 1.1.3 If it is determined that a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion is required in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek, in accordance with Growth Plan policies, the Region of Durham, in collaboration with lower -tier municipalities and TRCA, to develop a Terms of Reference outlining requirements for further studies in support of subwatershed planning that includes, but is not limited to: 43 1 LAND USE OBJECTIVE 1 cont'd a. a hydraulic assessment b. how natural hazards will be assessed and mitigated (i.e. the risk of flooding will not increase) c. how the Natural Heritage System and Water Resource System will be protected, enhanced and restored d. how water quality and quantity will be protected. 1.1.4 During planning for transportation infrastructure improvement projects, or new projects, the Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities to implement best management practices for design, expansions and widenings in accordance with TRCA's Crossing Guideline for Valley and Stream Corridors, and ensure consistent policies and standards are in place to facilitate hydraulic function (e.g. prevent flooding) and ecological connectivity (e.g. wildlife passage). See map 3 for priority crossings. 1.1.5 Lower -tier municipalities to improve the management of excess soils and prevent fill deposition that is incompatible with the soils and hydrology of the area by: a. ensuring adequate policies and bylaws are in place to manage excess soil b. improving compliance and enforcement of policies through collaboration between TRCA and municipalities c. conducting education and outreach on: i. the importance of proper soil management ii. existing regulatory requirements iii. regulatory responsibilities of various agencies, including who to contact with concerns. d. collaborating with agencies and other levels of government, including the Region of Durham, to ensure infrastructure projects that generate, or receive excess soil follow best management practices. 1.1.6 The Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with other levels of government and TRCA, to work to reduce the amount of chlorides entering the watershed by: a. continuing to implement best management practices for winter de-icing procedures on public property b. continuing education and outreach on salt management for private property. 1.1.7 TRCA, in collaboration with the Town of Ajax, to identify and promote opportunities for sustainable community retrofits in priority planting neighbourhoods (See map 8). 44 45 Land Use Objective LAND USE OBJECTIVE 2 Install and upgrade stormwater infrastructure using best available technologies to reduce runoff; resulting in improved water balance and water quality. 1.2.1 Lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and TRCA, through stormwater master planning continue to: a. employ best management practices for stormwater management and consistent design criteria to manage runoff quantity and quality b. consider stormwater funding options for cost recovery and to reduce impervious surfaces in the watershed c. examine opportunities to retrofit outdated stormwater infrastructure and install stormwater controls in areas without controls through long-term planning and investment strategies d. refine existing policies to ensure modern stormwater controls are required e. adaptively manage stormwater infrastructure through operation maintenance schedules and procedures. 1.2.2 Lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and TRCA, to develop mechanisms to track the status and effectiveness of stormwater management infrastructure. 1.2.3 Lower -tier municipalities to explore opportunities to enhance stormwater management in neighbourhoods with outdated or no stormwater facilities by retrofitting infrastructure to meet modern stormwater design criteria, as much as possible, given site characteristics. 1.2.4 For new developments, lower -tier municipalities to require hydrologic analysis and erosion threshold assessments downstream of potential stormwater management facilities that need to demonstrate no negative, or adverse, downstream impacts, prior to municipal approvals. LAND USE OBJECTIVE 3 Manage the risks of natural hazards through appropriate mitigation measures and restoration. 1.3.1 TRCA, in collaboration with lower -tier municipalities, to prioritize the restoration of the erosion hazard sites identified on map 4. Additional channel restoration, or increased stream bank protection may be required as preventative measures in areas downstream of new developments. 1.3.2 The Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with TRCA, to identify potential hazard risks to sewer and existing road infrastructure associated with in -stream creek erosion and implement strategies to eliminate identified risks. 45 46 Land Use Objective LAND USE OBJECTIVE 3 cont'd 1.3.3 Implement appropriate flood mitigation measures for the Flood Vulnerable Cluster in the Town of Ajax, which could involve: a. reopening, or initiating, a new environmental assessment to provide a more comprehensive list of alternatives to offset impacts associated with potential development in the headwaters b. the application of regional control in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek, if developed, and required by the updated flood modelling (see management recommendation 1.3.5). 1.3.4 TRCA, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and lower-tier municipalities, to educate property owners in high flood risk areas about proper lot level practices (e.g. removing hydraulic impairments). 1.3.5 TRCA to complete comprehensive floodplain mapping based on new models and best available information to inform land use and infrastructure decisions. LAND USE OBJECTIVE 4 Encourage the use of agricultural best management practices to minimize agricultural runoff and improve rural land stewardship. 1.4.1 In collaboration with the agricultural community and provincial ministries, TRCA, the Region of Durham and lower-tier municipalities to identify opportunities to expand best management practices that reduce agricultural runoff and improve water management, such as: a. use cover crops and / or leave crop residue b. adopt no till farm practices during non-growing season c. conduct soil testing for nutrients and adjust fertilizer application rates, if required. 1.4.2 In collaboration with the agricultural community, rural land owners, and provincial ministries, TRCA, the Region of Durham and lower-tier municipalities to identify opportunities to improve rural land stewardship best management practices through: a. natural buffers between agricultural lands and natural and / or water resource features and areas b. implementation of Environmental Farm Plans and other rural land stewardship programs (e.g. TRCA's Rural Clean Water Programs) c. education / outreach about the benefits of utilizing best management practices to improve habitat (e.g. meadows for sensitive bird species). 46 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan 5.2 WATER RESOURCE SYSTEM GOAL GOAL 2 Protect, enhance and restore the areas and features that make up the Water Resource System (including aquatic habitat) for ecosystem resilience and sustainability. This goal area focuses on ensuring policies are in place for the long-term protection of the WRS and undertaking priority restoration initiatives to benefit the long-term resiliency of the WRS. The WRS is presented in map 1A and map 1 B. The areas and features that comprise the WRS are to be protected in accordance with the recommendations laid out in this subsection. TABLE 7: WRS Management Recommendations WRS Objective Management Recommendations WRS OBJECTIVE 1 Implement appropriate policies and programs that protect, enhance and restore the areas and features that comprise the Water Resource System. 2.1.1 The Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with TRCA, to ensure the protection of the Water Resource System (map 1A and B) and its functions, by: a. updating Official Plans and zoning bylaws to adequately protect the Water Resource System b. assessing existing standards and guidelines for land use and infrastructure development to ensure they reflect current provincial policy direction to protect, enhance and restore the quality and quantity of water c. avoiding development near key hydrologic features through the establishment of appropriate buffers d. requiring the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures where avoidance of key hydrologic areas is not possible, in order to maintain hydrologic function 2.1.2 TRCA, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, to routinely update mapping data layers for all components of the Water Resource System as new information becomes available. 47 WRS Objective Management Recommendations WRS OBJECTIVE 1 cont'd 2.1.3 TRCA, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, to prioritize the restoration of the aquatic sites identified on map 4, which have been selected for contributing to the following: a. enhancing habitat quality and watershed connectivity b. ensuring biodiversity persists c. improving watershed resiliency to climate change. 2.1.4 If it is determined that a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion is required in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek, in accordance with Growth Plan policies, the City of Pickering, in collaboration with the Region of Durham, Town of Ajax and TRCA, as part of secondary planning to demonstrate through a subwatershed plan (or equivalent) that: a. key hydrologic features will be protected b. where avoidance of key hydrologic areas is not possible, appropriate mitigation measures are to be implemented to maintain downstream hydrologic function, and c. there will be no negative or adverse downstream effects, such as increased flooding, erosion, or deteriorated water quality. WRS OBJECTIVE 2 Promote aquatic habitat connectivity to facilitate native fish movement throughout the watershed. 2.2.1 TRCA, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities and landowners, to remove the six priority barriers to fish movement identified in map 5. 2.2.2 TRCA, through its application review function, to identify and implement avoidance, conservation, design and mitigation measures for the protection and / or recovery of native aquatic species, including Redside Dace and its habitat. For activities that affect Redside Dace habitat, consult the Guidance for Development Activities in Redside Dace Protected Habitat (MNRF 2016), MECP and DFO to determine requirements under species at risk legislation. 48 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan 5.3 NATURAL HERITAGE SYSTEM GOAL Protect, enhance and restore the Natural Heritage System and urban forest within the watershed to improve ecosystem resilience and sustainability. This goal area focuses on improving the quality and quantity of natural systems throughout the watershed. The proposed enhanced NHS identified on map 2 is recommended by TRCA to achieve this goal. It will be up to municipalities to adopt a NHS that is consistent with provincial policy and informed by the goals and objectives of the CCWP. The proposed enhanced NHS includes areas with existing natural cover and areas that are targeted to be potential natural cover through restoration. The exact configuration and size of the NHS could fluctuate due to other factors (e.g. construction of infrastructure), assuming the analysis is comparable to the one that resulted in the proposed enhanced NHS recommended by TRCA. The recommended NHS is designed to move towards the minimum target for natural cover in an urban and urbanizing watershed as established in TRCA's Terrestrial Natural Heritage System Strategy (2007) and How Much Habitat is Enough? (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2013). Assuming that the identified potential natural cover areas are restored, the recommended NHS achieves approximately 36% natural cover across the watershed, including approximately 25% forests and successional forests and 7% wetlands, consistent with the minimum targets. A large amount of the land recommended for potential natural cover occurs in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek. If development proceeds in this area, it will be essential to restore and protect (i.e. through securement) an amount of land consistent with the recommended NHS. To appropriately implement a NHS will require updates to municipal Official Plans, which can then guide future land use decisions to avoid development in the municipally adopted NHS, mitigate any impacts or, where impacts are unavoidable, provide ecosystem compensation. The management recommendations related to the NHS in this subsection are consistent with TRCA's protection hierarchy of avoid, minimize, mitigate and as a last resort compensate. Urban forests provide valuable terrestrial habitat, help manage stormwater, provide clean air and other socio-economic benefits (e.g. regulates local temperatures, improves personal well-being). Including urban forestry under this NHS goal recognizes the integrated nature of natural areas (i.e. NHS) and the ecological value of additional natural cover in parks, on streets, or private property (i.e. urban forests). 49 TABLE 8: NHS Management Recommendations Ilimiii NHS OBJECTIVE 1 Improve the quality and quantity of the Natural Heritage System across the watershed through ecosystem protection, enhancement and restoration, and implementation of relevant policies. 3.1.1 The Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with TRCA, to ensure the protection, enhancement and restoration of a Natural Heritage System consistent with the goals and objectives of this watershed plan (map 2 for recommended NHS) by: a. updating Official Plan policies and associated zoning bylaws to protect a municipally adopted enhanced Natural Heritage System b. assessing existing standards and guidelines for land use and infrastructure development to ensure they reflect current provincial policy direction to maintain, restore or enhance the municipally adopted Natural Heritage System c. avoid infrastructure development (i.e. buildings and structures) and minimize infrastructure linear feature crossings, in a municipally adopted enhanced Natural Heritage System d. adopting municipal policies for ecosystem compensation, in accordance with TRCA's Guideline for Ecosystem Compensation, where development in a municipally adopted enhanced Natural Heritage System is unavoidable e. applying a minimum 30 metre vegetation protection zone along features at the boundary of a municipally adopted enhanced Natural Heritage System to protect ecological function f. requiring development and redevelopments be designed and approved to prevent encroachment into a municipally adopted enhanced Natural Heritage System. 3.1.2 TRCA, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, to prioritize the restoration of the terrestrial sites identified on map 4, which have been selected for contributing to the following: a. increasing habitat quantity b. enhancing habitat quality and connectivity c. ensuring biodiversity persists d. adapting for climate vulnerabilities. 3.1.3 TRCA, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, to explore opportunities to secure the sites identified on map 6 for ecological protection and to increase public land ownership and connectivity along the main channel of Carruthers Creek south of Taunton Road. 50 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan NHS Objective Management Recommendations NHS OBJECTIVE 1 cont'd 3.1.4 TRCA, the Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities to regularly update their trail guidelines and standards for consistency, and to ensure that any new, or modifications to existing trails, use best practices, such as prioritizing the use of boardwalks in sensitive areas (e.g. wetlands), and implementing methods to ensure trail users stay on marked trails (e.g. signage, barriers to humans and dogs, but not other species, and limited access during breeding season). 3.1.5 TRCA, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, to minimize impacts to the municipally adopted Natural Heritage System from any active recreation and human activity by: a. ensuring proper trail management and signage b. providing education and outreach on the importance of the municipally adopted Natural Heritage System c. promoting community stewardship to maintain and monitor the municipally adopted Natural Heritage System for improper trail usage (e.g. off -trail compaction and erosion), illegal dumping and invasive species, while encouraging community restoration programs (e.g. tree plantings). 3.1.6 Wetland water balance studies that demonstrate how the hydrological function of the wetland should be protected will be undertaken by the landowner for any potential future growth in the areas identified on map 7, or other areas identified during subwatershed planning, prior to applicable planning approvals. NHS OBJECTIVE 2 Promote terrestrial habitat connectivity to ensure native species thrive throughout the watershed. 3.2.1 The Region of Durham, lower -tier municipalities, TRCA, landowners and other agencies will collaborate to manage problematic invasive species. 3.2.2 TRCA will continue to work with landowners to restore meadow habitat areas in support of open country bird species at risk, in accordance with the terrestrial restoration priorities identified on map 4. 51 NHS Objective NHS 3.3.1 OBJECTIVE 3 Lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with the Region of Durham and TRCA, to update existing urban forest studies and consolidate them into a Increase the urban forest cover comprehensive study that: within the developed portion of a. accounts for all public and private lands the watershed to improve social b. develops targets for public and private lands for inclusion in an urban and environmental well-being. forest strategy c. develops indicators for the quality and quantity of the urban forest for inclusion in an urban forest strategy. 3.3.2 The Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities, in collaboration with TRCA, to develop a comprehensive urban forest strategy that: a. enhances tree and soil conservation in accordance with Preserving and Restoring Healthy Soil: Best Practices for Urban Construction at any new development, or redevelopment, (e.g. Carruthers Creek Business Area), and on regional property (e.g. along Taunton Road) as depicted on map 8 b. focuses urban forest tree planting programs in the Town of Ajax as depicted on map 8 c. encourages an urban forest with diverse and native (or non-invasive) tree species and class sizes d. ensures consistent policies and bylaws for tree conservation on public and private lands e. explores opportunities to increase the capacity of the Region of Durham to implement an Urban Forest Strategy consistent with this management recommendation f. encourages participation in knowledge -sharing and collaboration through the Regional Public Works Commissioners of Ontario's Urban Forestry Sub -working Group and Ontario's Municipal Arborist and Urban Foresters Association g. includes urban forest targets for existing developed areas and any future development as part of the strategy. 52 • 44.00 4 +.7 • .F '' `5 i l:y' •'.fii 4j#moi94. s —�c 5.4 CARRUTHERS CREEK HEADWATERS MANAGEMENT There are several management recommendations that refer to potential future studies, subwatershed planning, or potential development in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek. The headwaters that could potentially have development in the future are the lands outside of the Greenbelt north of Highway 7. At the moment, these lands are not designated as part of the settlement area of the City of Pickering in their Official Plan, or the Region of Durham's urban area boundary. For any future development to occur, a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion, in compliance with the Growth Plan, would need to occur. The following management recommendations speak to what would be required based on provincial policy and the recommendations in this watershed plan. These management recommendations were already discussed under their relevant goal, but are repeated here as they are specific to the headwaters of Carruthers Creek. Should a decision be made to proceed with a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion, the full suite of management recommendations in Subsections 5.1 — 5.3 would apply to that area. TABLE 9: Headwaters Specific Management Recommendations 1.1.3 1.1.4 54 Relevant Management Recommendations If it is determined that a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion is required in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek, in accordance with Growth Plan policies, the Region of Durham, in collaboration with lower -tier municipalities and TRCA, to develop a Terms of Reference outlining requirements for further studies in support of subwatershed planning that includes, but is not limited to: a. a hydraulic assessment b. how natural hazards will be assessed and mitigated (i.e. the risk of flooding will not increase) c. how the Natural Heritage System and Water Resource System will be protected, enhanced and restored d. how water quality and quantity will be protected. During planning for transportation infrastructure improvement projects, or new projects, the Region of Durham and lower -tier municipalities to implement best management practices for design, expansions and widenings in accordance with TRCA's Crossing Guideline for Valley and Stream Corridors, and ensure consistent policies and standards are in place to facilitate hydraulic function (e.g. prevent flooding) and ecological connectivity (e.g. wildlife passage). See map 3 for priority crossings. Rationale and Provincial Policy Basis Appropriate scoping of any subwatershed studies for potential future Settlement Area Boundary Expansions will allow those studies to build upon work completed through this watershed planning process in a collaborative fashion. Growth Plan policies 2.2.8.3 (d) / (e) and 4.2.1.3 (c). This management recommendation is intended to ensure hydrological and ecological connectivity by improving crossings when new transportation infrastructure is built, or existing infrastructure is upgraded. This recommendation will help protect the integrity of the WRS and NHS, consistent with Growth Plan policies 4.2.1 and 4.2.2. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan 55 Relevant Management Recommendations Rationale and Provincial Policy Basis 1.2.4 For new developments, lower -tier municipalities to require hydrologic analysis and erosion threshold assessments downstream of potential stormwater management facilities that need to demonstrate no negative, or adverse, downstream impacts, prior to municipal approvals. This management recommendation is intended to identify potential changes to the functions of the WRS arising from new development. It is consistent with Growth Plan policies related to stormwater management (3.2.7). 1.3.3 Implement appropriate flood mitigation measures for the Flood Vulnerable Cluster in the Town of Ajax, which could involve: a. reopening, or initiating, a new environmental assessment to provide a more comprehensive list of alternatives to offset impacts associated with potential development in the headwaters b. the application of regional control in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek, if developed and required by updated flood modelling. This management recommendation is in reference to existing flooding issues in the lower part of the Carruthers Creek watershed in the Town of Ajax. The exact nature of the flood mitigation measure will depend on whether development proceeds in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek. 2.1.4 If it is determined that a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion is required in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek, in accordance with Growth Plan policies, the City of Pickering, in collaboration with the Region of Durham, Town of Ajax and TRCA, as part of secondary planning to demonstrate through a subwatershed plan (or equivalent) that: a. key hydrologic features will be protected b. where avoidance of key hydrologic areas is not possible, appropriate mitigation measures are to be implemented to maintain downstream hydrologic function, and c. there will be no negative or adverse downstream effects, such as increased flooding, erosion, or deteriorated water quality. Similarly, to management recommendation 1.1.3, this management recommendation identifies what is necessary to protect the integrity of the WRS and NHS. Growth Plan policies 2.2.8.3 (d) / (e), 4.2.1.3 (c), 4.2.2.3 and 4.2.2.7. 3.1.6 Wetland water balance studies that demonstrate how the hydrological function of the wetland should be protected will be undertaken by the landowner for any potential future growth in the areas identified in map 7, or other areas identified during subwatershed planning, prior to any planning approvals. Wetlands are vital features to both the WRS and NHS. Any development in proximity to wetland features should demonstrate the protection of hydrologic functions. Growth Plan policies 4.2.1.2, 4.2.1.4 and 4.2.2.3. 55 6. Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring is vital to the successful implementation of this watershed plan. Monitoring will help evaluate trends in watershed conditions and track the implementation of plan objectives. Monitoring will help determine what is working to maintain or improve conditions and what, if necessary, needs to change should conditions deteriorate. The Carruthers Creek monitoring program is designed to evaluate both watershed health and indicators associated with objectives of this watershed plan. The monitoring stations map (Figure 7) identifies monitoring stations by category based on what they monitor. Table 10 explains the Carruthers Creek monitoring program in detail. The stations identified in the monitoring stations map are cross referenced in the station's column in Table 10 (e.g. the first station listed in the table is an aquatic station, which is the yellow number 1 on the map). Additional monitoring stations are likely necessary to adequately track watershed health trends and the identified indicators over time. TRCA, in collaboration with its municipal partners, will identify opportunities to expand watershed monitoring with appropriate resourcing. It will be particularly important to ensure monitoring stations are collecting data in all parts of the watershed. Currently, monitoring stations are limited in the northern part of the watershed. 56 ri? Toronto and Region €1Conserva tion Authority A Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Monitoring Stations 0 0.5 1 2 3KM 0 Aquatic • Groundwater • Terrestrial • Water Quality • Water Quantity Municipal Boundary •••••-•Watercourse Greenbelt Boundary Land Use dir Natural Rural is Urban c3Carruthers Creek Watershed Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study 57 TABLE 10: Carruthers Creek Monitoring Program Monitoring Category Stations Monitoring Frequency What is monitored? Why do we monitor it? WATER ID#: CCOO1WM Every three Fish community, Indicator: RESOURCE (Yellow #1 years aquatic habitat Maintain, or increase, aquatic health SYSTEM (aquatic ecosystems) on map) and benthic invertebrate community y rankings. Applicable to WRS Objective 2. ID#: CCOO2WM (Yellow #2 on map) Monitoring these aquatic habitat characteristics allows for the assessments of the overall health of the aquatic ecosystem. ID#: CC003WM (Yellow #3 on map) NATURAL ID#: Annually Vegetation and Indicator: HERITAGE FV -18 & FV -18_1 forest birds Maintain, or increase, the number SYSTEM (Orange #1 and area of species and vegetation (terrestrial ecosystems) on map) communities of concern. Applicable to NHS Objective 2. Monitoring these terrestrial habitat characteristics helps to understand how the system is functioning and if there are changes to species composition over time. Note: This indicator requires inventory data from across the watershed to be properly assessed. The identified monitoring stations only collect data at that particular location and therefore do not assess trends across the watershed. An inventory would need to be conducted within the next ten years to update information regarding current conditions. 58 Monitoring Category Stations Monitoring Frequency What is monitored? Whydo we monitor it? SURFACE WATER QUALITY ID#: 107002 (Red #1 on map) Monthly samples Water chemistry (e.g. nutrients), metals, bacteria and temperature Applicable to overall watershed health and trends to know whether water quality conditions are improving or not. Monitoring water quality helps to understand the impacts of land uses on local water quality that ultimately flows into Lake Ontario. ID#: CC005 (Red #2 on map) SURFACE WATER QUANTITY ID#: HY013 (Blue #1 on map) Continuous water level data collected, reported in 15 -minute intervals Stream level, discharge and temperature Applicable to overall watershed health and trends to know whether hydrology conditions are improving or not. Monitoring stream level, discharge and temperature helps to understand the interconnections between groundwater and surface water. This information can be used to guide the management and protection of baseflow levels to protect aquatic life and ensure sustainable human use of surface water. ID#: HY090 (Blue #2 on map) ID#: HY089 (Blue #3 on map) ID#: WO002 (Blue #4 on map) Continuous water level and certain water quality data collected, reported in 15 minute intervals. Monthly grab samples for full suite of water quality parameters. Also takes event -based (i.e. heavy rainfall) water quality samples. Stream level, discharge and temperature Note: also measures water quality as part of Lake Ontario tributary monitoring Applicable to overall watershed health and trends to know whether hydrology and water quality conditions are improving or not. The primary purpose of this station is to assess nutrient loadings to Lake Ontario. 59 Monitoring Category Stations Monitoring Frequency What is monitored? Why do we monitor it? TBD Continuous Rainfall and Applicable to overall watershed (New in real-time snowfall health and trends to know 2019) (reporting every amount and whether hydrology conditions (Blue #5 on map) 5 minutes) temperature are improving or not. Precipitation monitoring information assists with flood forecasting and warning, event - based sampling, and watershed planning. TBD (New in 2019) (Blue #6 on map) GROUNDWATER TBD Hourly Water level and Applicable to overall watershed QUANTITY AND (New in groundwater water chemistry health and trends to know QUALITY 2019) level and whether hydrogeology (Purple #1 on map) temperature, monthly manual groundwater level measurements and periodic water chemistry conditions are improving or not. Groundwater and surface water interactions are essential for a functioning WRS. Understanding groundwater conditions is vital to understanding the nature of these interactions. Note: The following indicators are not evaluated through a particular monitoring station in Carruthers Creek, but will be periodically assessed through GIS analyses: • Reduce number of flood vulnerable structures and flood vulnerable roads (Land Use Objective 2) • Increase total natural cover in the watershed (NHS Objective 1) • Increase total tree canopy in the watershed (NHS Objective 3) The remaining indicators are qualitative (e.g. ensuring policies are in place) and will be reported on by TRCA in collaboration with its municipal partners. 60 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Reporting As part of the Carruthers Creek monitoring program, TRCA, in collaboration with its municipal partners, will conduct annual reporting to communicate on the health of the watershed and plan implementation progress. Annual reporting will help to track watershed health trends and the indicators identified as part of this watershed plan. Some components of this watershed plan may not be reported on annually (e.g. aquatic community and terrestrial species). This is due to different monitoring frequencies for certain components (e.g. aquatic species are surveyed every three years). Adaptive Management Adaptive management is a systematic process (see Figure 8) for continually improving practices by learning and applying updated knowledge to improve project outcomes. In the context of this watershed plan, adaptive management, in combination with the monitoring program, will allow modifications and refinements to management recommendations, and/or the monitoring program throughout the life cycle of this watershed plan. For example, if water quality continues to deteriorate, certain land use management recommendations may not be resulting in the desired outcome, requiring adjustment. FIGURE 8: Adaptive Management Cycle 0 Implement 0 Adjust / Refine 0 Learn 0 Monitor 0 Evaluate 61 Pickering The Water Resource System is essential to maintaining the long-term ecosystem resilience and sustainability of the Carruthers Creek watershed. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATION 2.1.1 refers to this map. Map 1A includes the key hydrologic features that comprise the WRS. See Map 1B for key hydrologic areas. Notes: For Seepage Areas and Springs, this map only includes areas where groundwater discharge exceeds the median discharge rate for the watershed. In other words, it shows areas with higher than average groundwater discharge. There could be other seepage areas and springs not shown on this map. '(P�NjoN PD VJ • nn Ajax 50 4 G01oNRO �. L BPVEV"V'1 ‘Pc PO ,ES°. aos Torortta and Region 90- Conservation Atrthorliat N A Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make c angel and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Water Resource System - Map A 0 0.5 1 2 3 KM Key Hydrologic Features S Inland Lakes �— Intermittent Streams -nom— Permanent Streams Seepage Areas and Springs Wetlands Municipal Boundary Carruthers Creek L) Watershed Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study 62 Pickering Map 1B The Water Resource System is essential to maintaining the long-term ecosystem resilience and sustainability of the Carruthers Creek watershed. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATION 2.1.1 refers to this map. Map 1B includes the key hydrologic areas that comprise the WRS. See Map 1A for key hydrologic features. vosl „ESSw a0 S Toronto and Region 411 Conservation Authority Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Water Resource System - Map B 0 0.5 1 2 3 KM Key Hydrologic Areas Highly Vulnerable Aquifers Significant Groundwater Recharge Areas Ecologically Significant K Groundwater Recharge Areas Municipal Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study 63 9SN 03` 0.D Map 2 The proposed enhanced Natural Heritage System consists of existing natural cover areas and potential enhancement areas (yellow) that are necessary to maintain the long-term ecosystem resilience and sustainability of the Carruthers Creek watershed. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATION 3.1.1 refers to this map. Notes: Wetlands are shown separately on Map 1A for the WRS and included as part of natural cover on Map 2 for the NHS. Wetlands are a feature of both the WRS and NHS in provincial policy. �p55\ANo �� ,00.55`14 „cow's.”' • Toronto and Region 'r;• ' Conservation A ,4utk f t Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Enhanced Natural Heritage System 0 0.5 1 2 3 KM OValleyland fin Carruthers Creek Watershed F9 ANSI Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed K Natural Cover (Existing) Plan Study Area Natural Cover (Potential) Land Use nProvincial NHS ,e Natural Rural Urban Municipal Boundary Greenbelt Boundary rtgi Pickering S°LC64 RQ Map 3 This map represents both priority hydrological and ecological connectivity (i.e. habitat connectivity) improvements. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATION 1.1.4 refers to this map. The hydrological crossings are where roads intersect with the stream network and have been identified as needing improved infrastructure (e.g. culverts). The ecological crossings are road segments that are priorities for improved infrastructure to facilitate wildlife crossings. These priorities are intended for when the identified portions of roads are undergoing maintenance or upgrades. illF Conservation Ruthpdgi A Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data GIStDepartm. please16) 661 6600 RCA Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Priority Crossing Improvements 0 05 1 2 3 • KM Priority Hydrologic • Crossings Improvement Areas Priority Ecological Connectivity Areas .n.w Watercourse Greenbelt Boundary cCarruthers Creek Watershed W Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study Area Land Use 41 Natural Rural 41 Urban Municipal Boundary Note: Priorities shown in this map are for regional roads only 65 Pickering .0,13:10.14) 4• 8th Concession & Sideline 6 7th Concession & Si 5th Concession & Sideli .s sY Audley Rd N l rµ Map 4 This map represents priority restoration areas. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATION 1.3.1, 2.1.3, 3.1.2 and 3.2.2 refer to this map. These areas were prioritized based on the ecological benefit of the restoration opportunity, their geographic distribution across the northern and southern parts of the watershed, and the range of aquatic and terrestrial restoration opportunities. See Table 11 for descriptions of each restoration opportunity. Rossland Rd E & Salem Rd N X54"" Ajax q41 Kingston Rd E Warbler Woods wsw Toronto and Re9917'i _. Conservation b ty Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Restoration Priorities 0 0.5 1 2 3 KM OErosion Priority Restoration Sites OPriorRestorationityAreasOpportunity Municipal Boundary -n.-- Watercourse Land Use IP Natural Rural Urban Greenbelt Boundary ) Carruthers Creek Watershed Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study Area Ecological Benefit of Restoration Opportunity Highest Benefit 66 Restoration Opportunity Planning for Carruthers Creek Restoration opportunity planning is TRCA's current process for identifying and recording site -level information for terrestrial and aquatic restoration opportunities (e.g. wetland, riparian, forest, meadow and stream restoration). TRCA's Integrated Restoration Prioritization (IRP) tool is used to help select priority restoration opportunities where ecological impairments exist and, if restored, could contribute most to the terrestrial natural heritage and water resource systems. Restoration opportunities in the Caruthers watershed were originally identified using desktop assessment techniques as per the restoration opportunity planning methodology. For the Carruther's Creek Watershed Plan, a more detailed prioritization method using additional data identified the most important areas to consider for restoration. This involved combining the IRP scores with the criteria listed in management recommendations 2.1.3 for aquatic and 3.1.2 for terrestrial. TRCA then overlaid these scores with the restoration opportunity planning information to identify the highest scoring areas, which are circled in Map 4 (Note: the Audley Road N opportunity was selected for meadow restoration potential in support of management recommendation 3.2.2). Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan 67 TABLE 11: Restoration Opportunity Summaries Location Restoration Opportunity 8th Concession and Sideline 6 • Forest, wetland, stream and riparian restoration opportunities have been identified in areas of residential and agricultural land uses. • Forest restoration will help connect and expand existing forest to the north. • Large-scale wetland and riparian restoration would restore headwater drainage feature functions and benefit downstream habitat. Existing land use patterns have altered streams, wetlands and riparian areas. • With agriculture as the predominant land -use, the focus of restoration should be to work with property owners to restore and maintain marginal lands that do not negatively impact agricultural use but promote best management practices and contribute to the potential enhanced natural heritage system. 7th Concession and Sideline 6 • Forest, wetland, stream and riparian restoration opportunities were identified in this largely agricultural area. • Highest priority areas include riparian corridors and around existing forest patches. • Portions in the north-east and along hydro corridors of this area provide meadow restoration opportunities. • Areas of wetland restoration will increase habitat diversity, contribute to the reduction of run-off and increase water infiltration and storage. 5th Concession and Sideline 6 • Forest, wetland, riparian and meadow restoration opportunities were identified in this priority area. • Restore large area of wetland and riparian habitat in the northern portion of this area. • Meadow habitat can be created along the hydro corridor running east to west in this area. • Existing forests can be expanded along the proposed enhanced NHS. Audley Road North • Restore wetland and meadow habitat to the east of the stream, in collaboration with golf course. • Meadow restoration potential in the hydro corridor to the south of the area to support habitat for sensitive species. Rossland Road East and Salem Road North • Restore riparian buffer to the west of the main branch of the creek and create a forest buffer between future development and the NHS. • Work with developer to restore wetlands and riparian corridors and encourage the use of best management practices such as low impact development and buffers as part of any development. Kingston Road East • Restore riparian cover along the main channel of Carruthers Creek. • Restore large wetlands to the east of this area and plant riparian and forest habitat around the wetlands. • Restore ponds in floodplain north of Kingston Road East to enhance wetland habitat and connect corridor along the stream network. Kingston Road East • Restore wetland habitat north of existing wetland to provide a buffer between this area and potential development. Warbler Woods • Restore wetland habitat north of existing wetland to provide a buffer between this area and potential development. 68 Pickering a,� Luffy 4A Map 5 This map represents priority fish barriers for removal to restore in -stream aquatic habitat connectivity. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATION 2.2.1 refers to this map. The red barriers are listed in order of priority for removal. Additional barriers should be considered for removal after the six priority barriers are removed. Priority barrier types and amount of habitat made available through the removal of the barrier: Barrier Type Habitat (km) 1 culvert 6 2 weir 2 3 log jam 0.75 4 weir 0.75 5 pipe 0.75 6 culvert 0.75 Toronto arid Region ." Conservation Auttwd,,„ A Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Fish Barriers 0 0.5 1 2 3 KM • Priority Barriers • Other Barriers - - - Municipal Boundary Watercourse Greenbelt Boundary Carruthers Creek C„Z Watershed Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study Area Land Use f Natural Rural Urban 69 Map 6 This map represents priority areas for public land securement. It is focused south of Taunton Road due to the amount of existing development in that area. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATION 3.1.3 refers to this map. This map does not imply the entirety of the identified areas should become public ownership, but rather where to focus securement efforts when opportunities arise. These areas are in close proximity to existing public land ownership and the main channel of Carruthers Creek. Notes: Should development proceed north of Taunton Rd., the priority securement areas would be the existing and potential natural cover areas identified as part of the recommended NHS on map 2. ,r RC15 \NJE5'; Toronto andRegion .'.3;1' Conservation Apthodty. A Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Priority Securement Areas 0.4 0.8 1.6 KM Priority Securement Greenbelt Boundary - Land Use Areas C Inland Lakes Watercourse Municipal Boundary 1271 Carruthers Creek de Natural Watershed Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study Area Rural Urban 70 Pickering Map 7 This map represents areas where wetland water balance studies are needed for any potential development in proximity to the priority wetlands identified. Data should be collected first in areas of high risk and no data. The medium and low risk areas would be secondary priorities. MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATION 3.1.6 refers to this map. This map is focused on areas north of Taunton Road to maintain hydrologic function in the event of potential future developments. Refer to TRCA's Wetland Water Balance Risk Evaluation (2017) for more information. Toronto and Regioni Y-ifi Conservation A Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Wetland Water Balance Study Priorities 0.5 1 KM Wetland Priorities* Greenbelt Boundary No Data C:3 Carruthers Creek Watershed Boundary diHigh Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study Area Medium Land Use Low le Natural Municipal Boundary �— Watercourse Rural Urban *Classifications based on TRCA Wetland Water Balance Risk Evaluation framework 71 �PUN��NRo\J Map 8 This map represents areas to prioritize tree conservation and tree planting within the developed portion of the watershed (i.e. urban forestry projects). MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATION 3.2.2 refers to this map. -73c This map is focused on areas south of Taunton Road due to the urbanized nature of that part of the watershed. oposssj�N Ajax Ajax s Toronto and Region '' Conservation Authudtp A Date: September 2019 Created by: TRCA Information Services/Information Technologies Disclaimer: The Data used to create this map was compiled from a variety sources and dates. The TRCA takes no responsibility for errors or omissions in the data and retains the right to make changes and corrections at anytime without notice. For further information about the data on this map, please contact the TRCA GIS Department. (416) 661-6600. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Priority Urban Forestry Areas 0 0.25 0.5 KM 4o Road Priorities Parks in Priority Neighbourhoods GIPriority Conservation Neighbourhood Priority Planting Neighbourhoods Municipal Boundary w�— Watercourse Greenbelt Boundary Carruthers Creek - -' Watershed Boundary Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Study Area Land Use Natural Rural Urban 72 FIGURE 9 Subwatershed Quality Due to Impervious Cover Figure 9 As discussed in Table 4 for the aquatic health of the WRS, subwatershed quality was assessed based on impervious cover under the existing benchmark conditions and the three future scenarios. The proposed enhanced NHS benefits the aquatic ecosystem in scenario 2 where the north-west subwatershed improves from good — fair to good. The increase in impervious cover associated with scenario 3 results in all four subwatersheds degrading to fair — poor conditions, and will likely result in the loss of Redside Dace, a listed endangered species, within the Carruthers Creek watershed. Implementing the management recommendations identified in this watershed plan, especially limiting impervious cover and undertaking restoration activities will help Redside Dace habitat. The rating scale for subwatershed quality is based on the amount of impervious cover, with: • Good (green) = 0 to 10% imperviousness Good — fair (yellow) = 10 to 25% imperviousness • Fair — poor (red) = greater than 25% imperviousness Notes: the percent imperviousness identified in Subsection 4.3 is for the entire watershed; while the subwatersheds may have different imperviousness values (e.g. Scenario 1 has 30% imperviousness across the entire watershed, whereas imperviousness by subwatershed is as follows: 10% north-west, 11% north-east, 53% central and 49% south). See Aquatic Impact Assessment technical report for more information. 73 Aquifer A saturated permeable geologic unit that can transmit significant quantities of groundwater under ordinary hydraulic gradients. They can be classified as confined or unconfined. In southern Ontario, aquifers are typically comprised of sand and/or gravel, or fractured limestone. Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Biodiversity The variability among organisms from all sources including terrestrial, marine and other aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes diversity within species and ecosystems. Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Ecological Integrity Which includes hydrologic integrity, means the condition of ecosystems in which, a. the structure, composition and function of the ecosystems are unimpaired by stresses from human activity, b. natural ecological processes are intact and self-sustaining, c. the ecosystems evolve naturally. Source: Greenbelt Plan, 2017 Ecosystem Services The benefits provided by ecosystems that are critical to the environment's life support systems and that contribute to human welfare both directly and indirectly and therefore represent social and economic value. Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Green Infrastructure Natural and human -made elements that provide ecological and hydrologic functions and processes. Green infrastructure can include components such as natural heritage features and systems, parklands, stormwater management systems, street trees, urban forests, natural channels, permeable surfaces, and green roofs. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 74 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Headwater Drainage Features III -defined, non -permanently flowing drainage features that may not have defined beds and banks. Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Highly Vulnerable Aquifer Aquifers, including lands above the aquifers, on which external sources have or are likely to have a significant adverse effect. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 Hydrologic Function The functions of the hydrologic cycle that include the occurrence, circulation, distribution and chemical and physical properties of water on the surface of the land, in the soil and underlying rocks, and in the atmosphere, and water's interaction with the environment including its relation to living things. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 Hydrogeology A science that describes the movement of groundwater, and its interaction with water that moves on the ground surface in rivers, lakes, streams, and over land. Groundwater seeps into the ground to varying depths and collects in aquifers. Groundwater can remain stored underground for periods ranging from a few days to thousands of years. Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Hydrology The engineering science that analyzes the different components of the hydrologic cycle, and takes into account that the natural cycle can be altered by human and natural activities. Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Life Science Areas of Natural and Scientific Interest (ANSIs) An area that has been identified as having life science values related to protection, scientific study, or education; and further identified by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry using evaluation procedures established by that Ministry, as amended from time to time. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 75 Low Impact Development An approach to stormwater management that seeks to manage rain and other precipitation as close as possible to where it falls to mitigate the impacts of increased runoff and stormwater pollution. It typically includes a set of site design strategies and distributed, small-scale structural practices to mimic the natural hydrology to the greatest extent possible through infiltration, evapotranspiration, harvesting, filtration, and detention of stormwater. Low impact development can include, for example: bio-swales, vegetated areas at the edge of paved surfaces, permeable pavement, rain gardens, green roofs, and exfiltration systems. Low impact development often employs vegetation and soil in its design, however, that does not always have to be the case and the specific form may vary considering local conditions and community character. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 Natural Hazards (Consisting of Erosion Hazard and Flooding Hazard) EROSION HAZARD Means the loss of land, due to human or natural processes, that poses a threat to life and property. FLOODING HAZARD Means the inundation of areas adjacent to a shoreline or a river or stream system not ordinarily covered by water. Source: PPS, 2014 Natural Heritage System A system made up of natural heritage features and areas, and linkages intended to provide connectivity (at the regional or site level) and support natural processes which are necessary to maintain biological and geological diversity, natural functions, viable populations of indigenous species, and ecosystems. The system can include key natural heritage features, key hydrologic features, federal and provincial parks and conservation reserves, other natural heritage features and areas, lands that have been restored or have the potential to be restored to a natural state, associated areas that support hydrologic functions, and working landscapes that enable ecological functions to continue. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 Negative Impacts Means: a. in regard to policy 1.6.6.4 and 1.6.6.5 degradation to the quality and quantity of water, sensitive surface water features and sensitive ground water features, and their related hydrologic functions, due to single, multiple or successive development. 76 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan b. in regard to policy 2.2, degradation to the quality and quantity of water, sensitive surface water features and sensitive ground water features, and their related hydrologic functions, due to single, multiple or successive development or site alteration activities; c. in regard to fish habitat, any permanent alteration to, or destruction of fish habitat, except where, in conjunction with the appropriate authorities, it has been authorized under the Fisheries Act; and d. in regard to other natural heritage features and areas, degradation that threatens the health and integrity of the natural features or ecological functions for which an area is identified due to single, multiple or successive development or site alteration activities. Source: PPS, 2014 Regional (flood) Control Stormwater management control of flood flows from the regional storm event (Hurricane Hazel) to mitigate increases in flood risk associated with development (urbanization). Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Riparian The areas adjacent to water bodies such as streams, wetlands and shorelines. Riparian areas form transitional zones between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Seepage Areas and Springs Sites of emergence of groundwater where the water table is present at the ground surface. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 Significant Groundwater Recharge Area An area that has been identified: a. as a significant groundwater recharge area by any public body for the purposes of implementing the PPS, 2014; b. as a significant groundwater recharge area in the assessment report required under the Clean Water Act, 2006; or c. as an ecologically significant groundwater recharge area delineated in a subwatershed plan or equivalent in accordance with provincial guidelines. For the purposes of this definition, ecologically significant groundwater recharge areas are areas of land that are responsible for replenishing groundwater systems that directly support sensitive areas like cold water streams and wetlands. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 77 Sustainable Community Retrofits Focus on actions in older, urban neighbourhoods by retrofitting buildings and infrastructure, regenerating habitats and urban ecology, and revitalizing a community's social fabric. TRCA's Sustainable Neighbourhood Action Program provides examples of sustainable community retrofits. Source: Sustainable Neighbourhood Action Program, TRCA, 2020 Urban Forest All trees, shrubs and understorey plants, as well as the soils that sustain them, on public and private property within an urban setting. Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Vegetation Protection Zone A vegetated buffer area surrounding a key natural heritage feature or key hydrologic feature. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 Water Balance The hydrologic cycle of precipitation, groundwater infiltration, evapotranspiration (into the atmosphere and by plant interception), and surface runoff.. Source: TRCA's Living City Policies, 2014 Water Resource System A system consisting of ground water features and areas and surface water features (including shoreline areas), and hydrologic functions, which provide the water resources necessary to sustain healthy aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and human water consumption. The water resource system will comprise key hydrologic features and key hydrologic areas. Source: Growth Plan, 2019 78 9. References Carruthers Creek Watershed Characterization Technical Reports Dr. Richard Gerber and Mike Doughty, Oak Ridges Moraine Groundwater Program, 2017. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Hydrogeology. Prepared for the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority and the Region of Durham. Matrix Solutions Inc., 2017. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Fluvial Geomorphology Assessment of Regional Watershed Monitoring Program Data 2003 - 2016. Prepared for the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority and the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2017. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Aquatic Crossing and Barrier Assessment Report. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2017. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Aquatic Habitat and Community Characterization. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2017. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Headwater Drainage Features Characterization. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2017. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Preliminary Water Quantity Characterization. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2018. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Water Quantity Characterization. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2017. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Surface Water Quality Characterization. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2017. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Terrestrial Biological Inventory and Assessment. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Carruthers Creek Watershed Scenario Analysis Technical Reports Matrix Solutions Inc., 2019. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Fluvial Geomorphic Assessment. Prepared for the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority and the Region of Durham. 79 Oak Ridges Moraine Groundwater Program, 2019. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Groundwater Modelling. Prepared for the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority and the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority and Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2019. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Modelling. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2019. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Aquatic Impact Assessment. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2019. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Stormwater Management. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2019. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Hydrological Assessment. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2019. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Terrestrial Impact Assessment. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2019. Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan: Urban Forest Assessment. Prepared for the Region of Durham. Provincial / Federal Policies / Plans / Guidance Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment, no date. Water Quality Guidelines for the Protection of Aquatic Life. CTC Source Protection Committee, 2019. Approved Source Protection Plan: CTC Source Protection Region. Amendment (Version 2.0) effective March 25, 2019. Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2013. How Much Habitat is Enough?Third Edition. Ontario, 2019. A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Ontario, 2017. Greenbelt Plan. Ontario, 2016. Guidance for Development Activities in Redside Dace Protected Habitat. Ontario, 2016. Water Management: Policies, Guidelines, Provincial Water Quality Objectives Ontario, 2014. Provincial Policy Statement. Under the Planning Act. 80 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Great Lakes Agreements and Policiess Government of Canada and Government of Ontario, 2014. Canada - Ontario Agreement on Great Lakes Water Quality and Ecosystem Health. Government of Canada and Government of the United States of America, 2012. Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. Ontario, 2016. Ontario's Great Lakes Strategy. Municipal Official Plans City of Pickering, 2018. Pickering Official Plan: Edition 8. Region of Durham, 2017.2017 Durham Regional Official Plan Town of Ajax, 2016. Official Plan. Municipal Guidelines, Reports or Strategies Cole Engineering, 2012. Carruthers Creek Flood Management and Analysis EA. Regional Official Plan Amendment No. 128 Impact Report. Prepared for the Town of Ajax. Region of Durham, 2016. Towards Resilience: Durham Community Climate Adaptation Plan 2016. Region of Durham, 2012. From Vision to Action: Region of Durham Community Climate Change Local Action Plan 2012. TRCA Guidelines Credit Valley Conservation and Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2014. Evaluation, Classification and Management of Headwater Drainage Features Guidelines. Credit Valley Conservation and Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2010. Low Impact Development Stormwater Management Planning and Design Guide. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2018. Guideline for Determining Ecosystem Compensation (after the decision to compensate has been made). Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2017. Wetland Water Balance Risk Evaluation. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2016. Integrated Restoration Prioritization: A Multiple Benefit Approach to Restoration Planning. 81 Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2016. Wetland Water Balance Monitoring Protocol. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2015. Crossings Guideline for Valley and Stream Corridors. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2014. The Living City Policies: for Planning and Development in the Watersheds of the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2012. Preserving and Restoring Healthy Soil: Best Practices for Urban Construction. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2012. StormwaterManagementCriteria. Toronto and Region Conservation Authority, 2007. Terrestrial Natural Heritage System Strategy. 82 Developed in collaboration with the Town of Ajax and City of Pickering -1 DURHAM REGION IW Toronto and Region S Conservation Authority Attachment #2 to Report #PLN 16-20 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan -Hydrological Assessment RESULTS AND DISCUSSION As noted above, a comparison of Regional Storm peak flows at multiple locations through the watershed is provided in Table 2. In addition to the Regional Storm simulations, Appendix 2 includes results for the design storm simulations for Scenarios 1, 2 and 3. Please see Appendix 3 for the hydrographs associated with the Regional Storm. Although the text below refers mainly to the results from the Regional Storm simulations, the trends observed for the Regional Storm are also observed for the design storm simulations. As such, the description and rationale provided below are also applicable for the design storm simulations. Please note that the peak flow values differ slightly between the 2011 update and current study for Scenario 1; this is due to the reclassification of residential land use between the two models. Specifically, Scenario 1 combined low- and medium -density residential land use, which resulted in a higher impervious value than what was used by Cole in 2011. The increased impervious value affects the %Imp and XIMP parameters in the model, resulting in slightly increased peak flow values over those established by Cole in 2011. Although the modelling completed as part of this scenario analysis only looked at land use as a future stressor, climate change is expected to increase precipitation, annual average temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events, which will impact watersheds within the Region of Durham. Some of the anticipated implications of a changing climate include localized flooding, violent storm damage, changes to ecosystem composition, and changes to agricultural conditions and production. Scenarios 1 and 2 Generally, there is a slight reduction in peak flow values when comparing Scenario 1 and 2 (see Table 2). This reflects the impacts associated with the enhanced NHS. From a flood mitigation and management perspective, the proposed NHS has negligible impacts on flood flows however there are several ecological and temperature mitigation benefits which have been documented within the CCWP. Scenarios 1 and 3 Results at a catchment scale for Scenarios 1 and 3 indicate significant changes in peak flow values. In one instance, peak flow values are reduced while an increase in peak flow is observed for most of the watershed. It is important to note that the reduction in peak flow values for the East Tributary downstream of Highway 7 is the result of changes to catchment timing under Scenario 3, where the location of the potential development area and increases in impervious surfaces results in runoff reaching the catchment outlet faster than the land use assumptions used for Scenario 1. Page 10 of 34 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan -Hydrological Assessment TABLE 2 REGIONAL STORM SIMULATION RESULTS Regional Storm VO2 Sub- 2011 Scenario 1 (+OP) catchment Update IDs Location Peak Flows (m3/s) Scenario 2 (+NHS) Scenario 3 (+Potential Urban) Peak 1 % Change Flows from 2011 (m3/s) Update Peak Flows Change (m3/s) from Scenario 1 U/S Hwy. 7 (W. Tributary) 3096 12.98 1175 7.6 3095 20.49 D/S Hwy. 7 (E. Tributary) D/S 5th Concession (E. Tributary) 1181 5.73 11.012 7.601 18.612 5.725 -15.2% 10.713 Peak I % Change Flows from (m3/s) Scenario 1 - 2.7% 47.347 0.0% - 9.2% -0.1% 7.394 18.107 - 2.7% 31.893 - 2.7% 78.605 5.539 -3.2% 3.345 330.0% 319.6% 322.3% -41.6% 1182 7.21 7.205 -0.1% 7.005 -2.8% 30.395 321.9% 1183 7.01 7.011 0.0% 6.91 -1.4% 19.927 184.2% 3103 18.57 18.572 0.0% 18.114 - 2.5% 62.462 236.3% U/S Taunton Rd. (Confluence) 1179 3.68 3.678 - 0.1% 3.691 0.4% 3.691 0.4% 3102 3101 3094 23.42 23.423 0.0% 22.916 - 2.2% 61.279 161.6% 26.99 26.992 0.0% 26.505 - 1.8% 62.965 133.3% 35.13 32.702 - 6.9% 31.944 - 2.3% 78.623 140.4% 3098 33.76 34.465 2.1% 33.924 - 1.6% 67.896 97.0% 3093 68.89 67.153 - 2.5% 65.855 - 1.9% 146.519 118.2% Taunton Rd. 3092 71.61 69.897 - 2.4% 68.593 - 1.9% 148.839 112.9% CPR U/S Rossland Rd. Hwy. 2 E. D/S Bayly St. 3087 70.66 3082 68.988 70.51 68.863 1044 94.07 99.6 1033 105.74 - 2.4% - 2.3% 67.941 67.689 - 1.9% 156.109 126.3% -1.3% 160.888 133.6% 5.9% 96.468 -3.1% 193.789 94.6% 114.651 8.4% 112.25 -2.1% 190.371 66.0% Shoal Point Rd. 1005 140.52 149.498 6.4% 147.189 -1.5% 210.632 40.9% Lake Ontario 1000 146.92 155.952 6.1% 153.714 -1.4% 213.973 37.2% Page 11 of 34 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan -Hydrological Assessment At a sub -watershed scale, significant increases in peak flows are also observed. This is also a reflection of the location and scale of the potential development area used in Scenario 3. The significant increase in impervious surfaces associated with the potential development will impact runoff volume and watershed timing, increasing peak flow values at and downstream of confluence points. At a watershed scale the change in peak flow values are not as pronounced as those at a catchment and sub - watershed scale. This reflects the magnitude of the peak flow values being compared to one another, and the effects of routing flows through significant downstream valley corridors. Without proper mitigation, the increase in peak flow values observed through Scenario 3 would have significant impacts to flood levels throughout the watershed. Of concern is the impact to flooding for the Lower Carruthers Flood Vulnerable Cluster within the Town of Ajax. Past studies completed by the Town and TRCA have indicated the need to implement flood remediation solutions in the form of an identified Flood Protection Landform and improved conveyance through the valley to reduce existing flood risk. As per TRCA's Flood Protection Land Forming Technical Guidelines, AECOM 2019: A flood protection landform is generally defined as a non-structural measure made of earth that provides permanent flood protection. Landforms are similar to dykes and berms, since they are man- made barriers placed adjacent to river corridors to provide passive protection from flooding. Unlike traditional dykes and berms, however, landforms are built on a much larger scale with very gentle slopes. Furthermore, landforms are designed to generally require less maintenance and provide a significantly higher lever of protection in terms of typical models of failure. Should development within the Carruthers Creek headwaters proceed, the flood remediation solutions proposed for the Lower Carruthers Flood Vulnerable Cluster would not meet the original design requirements established through the EA process (i.e. provide permanent flood control for Lower Carruthers to the Regional Storm). As such, a thorough reassessment of the Carruthers Creek Flood Management & Analysis Municipal Class EA would be required should a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion be justified following the Municipal Comprehensive Review process. This reassessment would involve initiating a new environmental assessment to investigate a more comprehensive list of alternate solutions to offset any impacts associated with potential development in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek following a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion. It should be noted that the intent of this assignment was to simulate the hydrologic response of several land use scenarios to inform the CCWP. Completing a detailed hydraulic assessment to quantify the impacts to flood levels within the watershed was outside the scope of work. Given the observed increase in peak flow values for Scenario 3 it is recommended that, following a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion, in accordance with the Growth Plan, and prior to municipal approval of a development proposal, a thorough hydraulic assessment be undertaken to quantify the potential changes to flood levels prior to development proceeding. Further, if current urban areas are susceptible to flooding under Scenario 3, then further flood remediation assessments in the form of feasibility assessments and Environmental Assessments would need to be undertaken by TRCA or its municipal partners in Durham. Page 12 of 34 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan -Hydrological Assessment Scenario 3 and ROPA 128, 2012 The Cole report entitled Carruthers Creek Flood Management & Analysis Municipal Class EA: Regional Official Plan Amendment No. 128 Impact Report, May 2012, simulated hydrological impacts from potential future build -out conditions using the Natural Heritage System delineated in the current City of Pickering Official Plan. This scenario is herein referred to as ROPA 128, 2012. There was interest amongst CCWP stakeholders to compare the results of the ROPA 128, 2012 scenario with Scenario 3 to examine the benefits of the Enhanced Natural Heritage System for various design storms if potential future build -out should proceed. Because the Enhanced NHS is likely to have limited hydrologic benefit during a storm event with a magnitude such as the Regional Storm, it is not surprising that there is no significant difference in Regional Storm flow values between Scenario 3 and the ROPA 128, 2012 modelling results. However, benefits of the Enhanced NHS can be observed for the smaller storms as peak flows are up to 25% higher for the ROPA 128, 2012 scenario compared to Scenario 3 (e.g. for 2 -year storm). It should be noted that TRCA did not develop a new modelling scenario for ROPA 128. Flow values presented in Appendix 4 for the ROPA 128, 2012 scenario were taken directly from the 2012 hydrology summary report by Cole. Please see Appendix 4 for details. MANAGEMENT/MITIGATION RECOMMENDATIONS The following section provides a high-level list and description of potential management recommendations related to flood impacts for Region of Durham, Town of Ajax, and City of Pickering consideration. The management recommendations provided are preliminary and should be confirmed and validated through additional hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, in compliance with the Growth Plan. This will ensure that the recommendations remain applicable should a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion in the headwaters of the Carruthers Creek watershed be required following the Municipal Comprehensive Review and Land Needs Assessment processes. The management recommendations will need to be reassessed at the appropriate time (i.e. secondary planning, subwatershed planning) prior to any development being approved. Land Use Planning Should a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion be justified in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek watershed, in accordance with the Growth Plan, then it must be demonstrated through subwatershed planning (or equivalent through a secondary plan process) that the proposed expansion would be planned to avoid, or minimize and mitigate, any potential negative impacts on watershed conditions and the Water Resource System, including the quality and quantity of water. This approach would utilize land use planning approaches to minimize imperviousness and maintain hydrologic processes and downstream flows. For example, focusing potential development in smaller, higher -density development areas could maintain larger natural areas that would limit downstream flows. Implementation of Downstream Flood Remediation Alternatives In combination with land use planning, a thorough reassessment of the Carruthers Creek Flood Management & Analysis Municipal Class EA would be required should a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion be justified following the Municipal Comprehensive Review process. This reassessment would involve initiating a new environmental assessment to investigate a more comprehensive list of alternative solutions to offset any impacts associated with potential development in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek following a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion. Any reassessment of flood mitigation measures developed for the Lower Page 13 of 34 Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan -Hydrological Assessment Carruthers Flood Vulnerable Cluster should consider future impacts of climate change using the most up to date climate modelling data for Durham Region in addition to a detailed analysis related to the impact on flooding as a result of record Lake Ontario levels in 2017 and 2019. Future Studies As noted above, potential changes to flood levels across the watershed should be assessed following a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion and prior to municipal approval of any development proposals (i.e. at the Secondary Plan stage). If this assessment identifies that new areas of the watershed are susceptible to flooding, then further flood remediation assessments, in the form of feasibility assessments and/or environmental assessments would need to be undertaken to mitigate any potential impacts. Regional Storm Stormwater Management Quantity Control The application of Regional Control in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek is recommended should development be proposed following a Settlement Area Boundary Expansion. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (MNRF) has not accepted this approach in TRCA's jurisdiction and further consultation including support from the MNRF would be required to apply Regional Control. Land use needs to accommodate the required runoff volume may not comply with land use targets due to pond size. Municipal Infrastructure Upgrades Existing water crossings overtopped during a Regional Storm event should be upgraded to ensure safe public and emergency response passage. Furthermore, watercourse crossings where upstream flood levels result from insufficient crossing capacity should be replaced'. 1 A list of these structures has been provided under a separate cover and will be included in the CCWP. Page 14 of 34 Attachment #3 to Report #PLN 16-20 Toronto and Region Conservation Authority July 20, 2020 To Concerned Members of the Public: Re: Draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan Clarification of TRCA Findings and Position Related to Development Proposals in the Watershed The Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA) appreciates the significant public interest in the draft Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan (CCWP) that was released for public review in March 2020, The development of the draft CCWP has been a multi-year collaborative effort between TRCA and the Region of Durham, in consultation with the Town of Ajax and City of Pickering. Extensive public engagernent has occurred to develop this watershed plan. This effort has included gathering input from watershed residents and stakeholders by using tools such as online surveys, pop-up displays at community events, stakeholder workshops, presentations to committees and councils, and Public Information Centres. TRCA recognizes and appreciates the concern that residents have for protecting and restoring the health of the watershed. Recently, concern from members of the public has been expressed to local municipal and provincial officials on the findings of the watershed plan and how it relates to proposed development in the headwater areas of Carruthers Creek. TRCA would like to clarify some of the findings of the watershed plan and to offer some insights on our role in the planning process: Flood Risk TRCA assessed potential future scenarios as part of the watershed planning process to determine how different land uses would impact the watershed (Section 4 of the Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan). Scenario 3 assumed development in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek, outside the proposed enhanced Natural Heritage System. Peak flows were identified to potentially increase by 77% for the regional storm event, compared to current conditions. However, the flood modelling completed as part of this watershed planning exercise did not factor in potential mitigation measures (e.g. modern stormwater infrastructure). To address this, TRCA included a series of management recommendations which includes additional studies to be completed prior to the consideration of any development approvals in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek. Headwaters Development Some members of the public's recent correspondence relating to the watershed plan findings and proposed development in the headwaters states "The TRCA Report makes 11 very clear that under 170 circumstances should the Carruthers Headwaters be urbanized. The cost is too great." The draft CCCWP does not state that development in the headwaters of Carruthers Creek should not proceed. Instead, it identifies potential impacts of development and proposes a series of mitigation measures to manage those impacts should development be considered within the headwaters area. The success of these mitigation measures is, however, predicated upon the establishment of an enhanced Natural Heritage System in the headwaters, Specifically, subsection 5.4 of the draft CCWP outlines recommendations relevant to potential development in the headwaters. These recommendations include the need to protect adequate land in the headwaters which can be restored, to complete a hydraulic assessment, and to implement appropriate flood mitigation measures to mitigate downstream impacts that may exacerbate the existing Flood Vulnerable Cluster in the Town of Ajax. This may require the consideration of Regional Flood Control (e g., offline detention systems) and 1 Op' I I k Toronto and Region 41) Conservation Authority updating or undertaking a new Environmental Assessment of the downstream Flood Vulnerable Cluster in Ajax depending on the nature and configuration of any development. The detailed planning of the proposed Natural Heritage System would be formalized through the municipally led development approval process that would follow the Municipal Comprehensive Review (MCR) process being led by the Region. Planning Process Watershed plans inform land use planning decisions and municipal decision-making processes for land use and infrastructure planning. TRCA, in collaboration with the Region of Durham, and in consultation with the Town of Ajax and City of Pickering, developed the management framework for the Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan based on the MCR process envisioned in the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. It is through this MCR process that municipal decisions on potential future development will be made. TRCA is aware of the Ministerial Zoning Order request by Dorsay Development Corporation for the Veraine community on privately held lands in the Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan study area. TRCA notes that a Ministerial Zoning Order would be a departure from the current provincial land use planning framework and the collaborative work of the Region and lower -tier municipalities. TRCA would rather see the MCR process continue as planned to ensure all matters of provincial and municipal interest related to TRCA's mandate are addressed. TRCA has communicated this position to the Province and has indicated our interest in discussing the matter further with appropriate provincial staff. TRCA has also met with Dorsay Development Corporation during the development of the draft CCWP to discuss their concerns and will continue to do so. In addition, TRCA will continue to act as a technical advisor and resource to the Province, Region and local municipalities by informing all parties of the findings of the draft CCWP as the Province considers the Dorsay request. Please visit https://trca.ca/conservation/watershed-management/carruthers-creeklwatershed-plan/ for more information on the development of the CCWP, or contact carruthers[a?trca.ca if you have any questions about the draft Plan or this process. As stated on the website, the public review of the draft CCWP has been paused due to the COVID-19 situation and will resume once the state of emergencies from all levels of government are lifted. John MacKenzie Chief Executive Officer Toronto and Region Conservation Authority cc: Hon. Rod Phillips, Minister of Finance, MPP for Ajax Hon. Steve Clark, Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing Peter Bethlenfalvy, MPP for Pickering -Uxbridge Jennifer Innis, TRCA Board Chair John Henry, Regional Chair and CEO Kevin Ashe, Acting Mayor of Pickering, TRCA Board of Director Joanne Dies, Regional Councilor, TRCA Board of Director David Ryan, Mayor of Pickering Shaun Collier, Mayor of Ajax Brian Bridgeman, Commissioner, Planning & Economic Development, Region of Durham Sameer Dhalla, Director, Development & Engineering Services. TRCA 2