HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD 32-08
Citq o~
REPORT TO
COUNCIL
Report Number: PD 32-08
Date: July 14, 2008 3 0 4
From:
Neil Carroll
Director, Planning & Development
Subject:
,
Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: Growing Durham
Phases 3 & 4
Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario
Working Paper, prepared by Urban Strategies Inc. et ai, dated
June 13, 2008, as revised to show Regional Planning Directions
Recommendations:
1. That Report PO 32-08 of the Director, Planning & Development, regarding the
Growth Scenario Working Paper, dated June 13,2008, presenting the outcomes
of Phases 3 & 4 of the Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study
be received;
2. That the comments contained in Report PO 32-08 on the Recommended
Preferred Growth Scenario for the Region of Durham Growth Plan
Implementation Study be endorsed, and that the Region of Durham be
r~quested to:
a) support the land use structure with Planning Committee directions noted,
shown on Figure 13 B and provided as Attachment #2 to Report PD 32-08
with the following further refinements:
. increase the depth of the future Employment Areas in Pickering along
Highway 407, east of Westney Road, to a minimum 600 metres, and
where appropriate, increase the depth on selected blocks up to
1,000 metres;
. support the designation to future Employment Areas of the remnant parcel
of "whitebelt" lands located east of the airport; and,
. expand to the south the Future Centres designations, currently shown at
the two intersections of the Seventh Concession Road with Salem and
Lakeridge Roads, to incorporate the Highway 407 transitway stations and
adjacent lands, thereby allowing mixed residential, commercial and high
intensity office uses, and consider designation of a future transit village on
the south side of the Highway 407 transitway;
Report PO 32-08
July 14, 2008
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
.f) j Growing Durham
Page 2
b) in updating the population and employment tables' for Pickering to reflect
Planning Committee's revisions to the Recommended Preferred Growth
Scenario, increase the employment figures for Pickering to include the 35,000
jobs identified by the Provincial Central Pickering Development Plan for
Seaton, and allocate jobs arising from the future Employment Areas, future
Living Areas and intensification in South Pickering, at a ratio of no less than
one job for each three new residents as is applied across the rest of the
Region;
c) in detailing the policies for the Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario,
· establish strong phasing policies respecting the timing and process for
local municipalities to bring new "whitebelt" lands into the urban area in
order to address the logical and orderly provision of infrastructure and
phasing of growth with municipal fiscal priorities;
· establish new policies prohibiting large format retailing within future
Employment Areas;
· establish strong phasing policies respecting future Living Areas that may
be affected by incompatible noise from a possible future Pickering airport
so as to prevent residential or other noise sensitive uses from being
established until resolution of the appropriate noise protection standard
and a decision on the development and timing of the possible airport are
reached; and
· better clarify the different characteristics of Transit Villages, Urban Nodes,
Future Centres and Waterfront Villages;
d) with respect to strategic future Employment Areas needed beyond 2031, work
with the Ministry of Public. Infrastructure Renewal to establish policies
permitting the Region to acknowledge as part of current Regional Plan
conformity amendment, the long term intended use for these lands as future
Employment Areas;
e) support the City of Pickering in its request to the Ministry of Transportation in
commenting on the Highway 407 Environmental Assessment, to relocate the
proposed Highway 407 maintenance yard from the south side of the
proposed interchange with Salem Road to allow maximum intensification
around the Highway 407 transitway;
f) obtain from Urban Strategies Inc.. and forward to area municipalities the
detailed information on the amount, types and locations of intensification
projected for the existing urban areas used in the background work not
contained in the Working Paper; and
RepQrtPD 32-08
July 14, 2008
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
Growing Durham
Page 3 ::, 6
3. Further, that a copy of Report PO 32-08 and Pickering Council's resolution on
the matter be forwarded to the Region of Durham, Urban Strategies Inc., other
Durham Area Municipalities, the Ministry of Energy & Infrastructure, the Ministry
of Municipal Affairs and Housing, and the Ministry of Transportation.
Executive Summary: On June 13, 2008, the Region of Durham released for
comment a report entitled Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth
Scenario Working Paper, incorporating the directions of Regional Planning Committee
on June 3, 2008. The report is the outcome of Phases 3 & 4 of the Region's Growth
Plan Implementation Study, entitled Growing Durham. The Study is being undertaken
for the Region by Urban Strategies Inc., Watson & Associates and TSH. The Region
requests comments by July 14, 2008.
For Pickering, the Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario as revised by Planning
Committee, identifies the need to designate lands beyond the current urban area
(South Pickering and Seaton) to accommodate future employment and residential land
needs to 2031. The Scenario is shown on Firgure 13B and is provided as
Attachment #2 to this Report to Council. In essence, all lands in north-east Pickering,
commonly referred to as the "whitebelt" lands in the Provincial Growth Plan, are
proposed for future urban uses.
Also for Pickering, the Scenario includes the identification of a Mobility Hub at South
Pickering's GO Station, a Waterfront Village around Frenchman's Bay, and includes
intensification in Pickering's Urban Growth Centre and other corridors and centres.
Staff supports the Recommended Growth Scenario, with Planning Committee's
directions, subject to a number of further revisions for Pickering. Key revisions include
increasing the depth of future Employment Areas adjacent to Highway 407,
incorporating Seaton's 35,000 jobs, reflecting jobs to resident's ratio of no less than 1:3
for the rest of Pickering's growth, and expanding the Future Centres in north-east
Pickering.
In moving forward to Phase 5 of the study the Region and its consultants need to
establish a strong policy framework addressing phasing, the protection of strategic
Employment Areas beyond 2031; and clarification of several terms.
Financial Implications: No direct implications from providing comments on the
Phases 3 & 4 Working Paper of the Growing Durham Study.
Report PD 32-08
July 14,2008
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
"3 7 Growing Durham
Page 4
Sustainability Implications: The recommendations contained in this Report to
Council respecting increasing the employment assigned to Pickering, increasing the
depth of the future Employment Areas, and requiring the timely phasing of new urban
areas are aimed at increasing the economic sustainability of the City.
Recommendations to establish expanded Urban Centres and/or Transit Villages around
the Highway 407/Salem and lake Ridge Road interchanges is intended to enable
responsible development to occur around transit stations.
1.0 Background
1.1 The Region is implementing the Province's Growth Plan for the Greater
Golden Horseshoe through a Growth Plan Implementation Study entitled
"Growing Durham".
In August, 2007, the Region of Durham commenced a 5-phase Growth Plan
Study. The Growth Plan Implementation Study has three fundamental purposes:
to provide a policy framework that meets the Growth Plan requirements; to
develop a growth strategy that will guide the Region's development until 2031;
and to allocate that growth to the individual local municipalities. The study is
being undertaken for the Region by Urban Strategies Inc., Watson & Associates
and TSH.
In February 2008, Pickering City Council commented to the Region on the
Growth Plan Implementation Study Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report: Summary of
Understanding and Initial Analysis (see Report PO 08-08, Attachment #1).
Phase 1 & 2 of the Study examined growth issues in each municipality and
analyzed growth patterns if current development trends did not change.
Phase 3 & 4' of the Study examined alterative scenarios for growth within
Durham, evaluated those scenarios, and recommended a preferred growth
scenario. In late May and early June, 2008, the following reports were released
by the consultants:
· Scenario Evaluation and Consultant Recommended Preferred Growth
Scenario Working Paper, dated May 27,2008;
· Addendum Report, dated June 2, 2008 (issued to correct mapping errors
following meeting with area municipal staff); and,
· Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario Working
Paper, dated June 13, 2008, as revised to incorporate the directions of
Regional Planning Committee on June 3, 2008.
Report PO 32-08
July 14, ~098_
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
Growing Durham
Page 5
n
Regional Planning Committee has now invited public and agency comment by
July 14, 2008 on the Preferred Growth Scenario with direction that certain
revisions appear in the June 13th Revised Working Paper. Refinement of the
Preferred Growth Scenario is continuing in cooperation with regional and local
municipal staff.
Phase 5 of the Study will be the refinement of the Preferred Growth Scenario
and development of the Regional Plan Durham policy framework to achieve the
intensification targets, greenfield density targets, and related policies and
provisions of the Provincial Growth Plan. That work is anticipated in September,
with an amendment to the Durham Regional Official Plan following in early 2009.
The City is also required to bring its Official Plan into conformity with the
Provincial Growth Plan The City's work requires details arising from Phase 5 of
the Regional study and the final Regional official plan amendment.
1.2 The Growth Scenario Working Paper continues to identify a shortfall in
urban land to accommodate both residential and employment uses.
The Working Paper shows that the population and employment allocated to
Durham Region by the Province using the intensification and density targets set
out in Places to Grow, requires land beyond that currently designated for urban
uses in the Regional Plan. These lands are commonly referred to as the
"whitebelt" lands in the Provincial Growth Plan.
In Phases 1 & 2, the consultant's report showed that, without policy chanQes,
accommodating the Growth Plan targets of 960,000 residents and 350,000 jobs
for Durham by 2031 would require lands for additional low and medium-density
residential units with shortfalls of 3,122 hectares of living area land and
505 hectares of employment lands. The market "base case" assumed 35%
intensification in existing built areas (below the Growth Plan requirement of
40%); and a greenfield density of 44 persons and jobs per hectare in greenfield
urban areas (below the Growth Plan requirement of 50 people and jobs per
hectare).
In Phase 3 & 4, the consultant's working paper showed that with policy chanQes
to increase densities for low density housing from 25 units per net hectare to
28 uph, to achieve the 40% intensification target within the built-up areas, and to
achieve 47 persons and jobs per hectare in the greenfield areas, additional
urban land is still required, but only two-thirds of that required under the base
case assumptions.
Report PO 32-08
July 14, 2008
I '
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
~~ D 9 Growing Durham
Page 6
1.3 The consultants evaluated several Alternative Growth Scenarios for
Durham Region, and ultimately recommended Scenario 3: Reinforcing
Existing Communities.
The growth scenarios proposed differing amounts of, and locations for,
intensification and new urban living and Employment Areas. The three scenarios
evaluated were:
1. Continuing a Dominant Western Anchor - directing most new growth to
Pickering and Whitby;
2. Focusing on a Central Hub for Durham - directing most new growth to the
current central core of the Region in Whitby/Oshawa/Courtice; and,
3. Reinforcing Existing Communities - balancing the forecasted growth across
the Lake Ontario shoreline municipalities with enhanced growth in north-east
Pickering and a strategic reserve of employment lands along the future
Highway 407 alignment.
The consultants recommended Scenario 3. In addition to balanced growth
across the Lake Ontario shoreline municipalities, it proposed measured growth
in the Northern communities. Further, it reinforced all key drivers important to
the economic prosperity of the Region.
1.4 Regional Planning Committee directed revisions be made to Scenario 3 to
enhance opportunities for growth in north-east Pickering prior to accepting
it as the Recommended Preferred Scenario and circulating it for
consultation.
Figure 13B from the consultant's Growth Scenario Working Paper is included as
Attachment #2 to this Report to Council. This Figure is titled Scenario 3 -
Reinforcing Existing Communities: Lands Beyond the Urban Area Boundary and
Urban Structure (showing directions from June 3rd Planning Committee).
Regional Planning Committee is seeking comments on this Recommended
Preferred Growth Scenario by July 14, 2008. Further detailing of Scenario 3 is
still continuing as further meetings occur between study consultants and regional
and local municipal staff.
For Pickering, the revised Preferred Growth Scenario proposes designation of
another block of land east of the Pickering Airport site as future Employment
Areas. Further, Planning Committee proposed that the amount of future
Employment Areas along Highway 407 be reviewed. For Pickering, the
discussion revolved around increasing the depth of the future Employment Areas
so as to extend it from approximately Highway 7 to north of Highway407 and
northwards towards the Seventh Concession Road. Future Living Area
designations are proposed east of Greenwood, around Kinsale and north of the
Highway 407 Employment Areas. Future Centres are proposed at the
intersection of the Seventh Concession Road and Salem Road, and the Seventh
Concession Road and Lake Ridge Road. A Mobility Hub has been identified at
downtown Pickering's Urban Growth Centre. Staff support these changes.
Revort pn 32-08
July 14, 2008
t .
Sutject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
Growing Durham
Page 7
,~i 'I D
The forecasts in the Working Paper suggest that the revised scenario would
attract 40,595 new jobs to Pickering by 2031 out of a total of 142,805 new jobs
for Durham as a whole, and 132,875 additional residents to Pickering out of a
Durham total of 411,304. However, since the consultants have not yet revised
the job or residential population forecast to reflect Planning Committee directions
for more employment lands in north-east Pickering, further upward adjustments
to these numbers are anticipated.
2.0 Discussion:
2.1 Most of staff's earlier concerns with Scenario 3 were addressed by the
directions of Planning Committee on July 3rd, although a number of further
refinements are recommended.
Many of staff's concerns with the May 27 Working Paper conclusions have been
addressed in the recent changes made to the Preferred Scenario Three - the
'Reinforcing Existing Communities' scenario, including:
. location of a mobility hub in downtown Pickering;
· designation of more employment lands both east of the Pickering Airport
lands and along Highway 407;
. designation of more Living Area lands in north-east Pickering.
A number of concerns remain.
2.2 The depth of the future Employment Areas adjacent to Highway 407 should
be increased to between 600 and 1000 metres.
Whereas the May 2ih Working Paper included 400 metre wide bands of
employment lands along both sides of Highway 407 east of Westney Road in
Pickering, the June 13th revision, responding to Planning Committee directions,
indicated that the long-term employment land need should be reviewed in this
location. In order to accommodate larger parcel sizes and better capitalize on
the significant locational advantages of a 400 series highway, the width of the
employment bands should be widened to 600 metres generally and up to 1,000
metres in depth in selected locations. This view is shared by Regional Economic
Development staff. Staff supports the suggestions of the study consultants
made at a recent meeting with staff to extend the employment designation south
to Highway 7 while retaining a future Living Areas designation around Kinsale.
Staff is also considering the strategic need to extend the future Employment
Areas north to the Seventh Concession.
Report PO 32-08
July 14, 2008
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
5 '11 Growing Durham
Page 8
In addition, for similar reasons, staff also support an increase in the depth of the
employment lands proposed at the strategic intersection of Highway 407 and the
connector to Highway 401 and similar employment bands located along Highway
407 further to the east.
2.3 The remnant piece of "whitebelt" lands east of the Pickering Airport site
should be designated as future Employment Areas.
The Preferred Scenario, as revised by Planning Committee, proposes
designating the large area of whitebelt land east of the airport lands as future
Employment Areas, leaving a small remnant parcel as "whitebelt" lands to the
north. The remnant parcel should also be designated as Employment Areas at
this time.
2.4 The two proposed Future Centres along the Seventh Concession Road
should be expanded to the south to include lands adjacent to the
Highway 407 Transitway and/or considered for Transit Village
designations.
Future Centres proposed for the Seventh Concession Road at both Salem and
Lake Ridge Roads have the potential to serve as transit villages with a range of
transit supportive land uses and densities jf expanded southwards to incorporate
the transit stations proposed on the south side of Highway 407. It is
recommended that the two proposed Future Centres be expanded southwards to
incorporate the transitway stations and a broad range of transit supportive land
uses and densities be permitted.
2.5 Characteristics of several designations, including Transit Villages, Urban
Nodes, Future Centres and Waterfront Villages should be clarified
In order to understand the roles of the new proposed features in the new urban
structure of Pickering and the Region of Durham, clarification of proposed
functions, land uses and densities should be provided.
2.6 The jobs allocated to Pickering should assign the 35,000 jobs identified by
the Central Pickering Development Plan to Seaton, while maintaining at
least a 1:3 jobs per resident ratio for the rest of Pickering's growth.
The consultants are requested to provide detailed background work on
intensification. This information is required to enable staff to determine where
and to what extent residential growth is being assigned to the Urban Growth
Centre and other intensification corridors and centres. Also, staff requires
information on the amount of jobs assigned related to intensification. This
information is requested at the consultant's earliest convenience.
Report PO 32-08
July 14, 2008
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
Growing Durham
Page 9
.., " ')
..."v.' ! 1..__
Staff recognizes the tables in the Working Paper on population and employment
have not been revised to reflect the changes directed by Planning Committee.
These revised tables should be also be forwarded as soon as possible to staff.
In revising the tables for Pickering, the Region and the consultants must address
the current under-allocation of jobs in Seaton.
The total allocation of 40,595 jobs to Pickering in the Recommended Preferred
Scenario to 2031 appears to disregard the 35,000 jobs identified for Seaton in
the Provincial Central Pickering Development Plan. If the 35,000 jobs are part of
the figure of 40,595 jobs, the remaining jobs to be created in the rest of Pickering
to 2031 is only about 5,600 jobs. Yet our population (outside of Seaton) is
expected to increase by 68,900.
The consultants have indicated that if a Federal airport is developed, 10,000 jobs
will be added to the Pickering jobs allocation as a bonus, but is not allocated in
the scenario at this time.
In revising the tables for the Revised Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario,
it is recommended that 35,000 jobs for Seaton be included as a baseline, and
the remaining jobs allocations for the rest of Pickering by 2031 be at a ratio of no
less than 1:3 jobs per resident. This ratio is realistic in light of the City's strategic
position as the western anchor of the Region of Durham.
2.7 Phasing policies should be included in the Re.gional Plan addressing the
timing for area municipalities to bring new urban areas on stream so as to
minimize adverse fiscal impacts and potential noise of a possible future
airport. .
While it is appropriate to designate lands in north-east Pickering for future Living
Areas and future Employment Areas at this time, policies should be introduced to
phase the timing of actual development.
For Pickering, new development areas should not be allowed to compete with
the build-out of Seaton, for employment or residential uses. Similarly,
intensification is a key element of achieving the City's vision of its Downtown
Urban Growth Centre. The City and the Region should not be burdened with the
costs of providing several sets of services and facilities for the new residents and
employment area at the same time.
In addition, new development areas immediately east of the potential future
airport may be impacted by noise should an airport be constructed. The GT AA
has suggested that a higher noise protection standard (a 25 NEF standard) be
used which would increase the area restricted from residential uses. Phasing
policies should restrict the timing of these lands from being developed for
residential uses until resolution of the noise protection standard and a decision
on the development and timing of the possible airport are reached.
Report PO 32-08
July 14, 2008
-L)" (; Q
, lJ U
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
/. -1 '')7 Growing Durham
~''\ \
.....-' , '"
Page 10
A decision has not yet been reached on how piped services will be provided to
north-east Pickering, However, the Regional Master Water and Sanitary
Services Plan is underway to address this matter. There are two different
options for sanitary that would result in different phasing of development Thus,
phasing policies should coordinate the timing of development with the Region's
servicing strategy and completion of related fiscal impact and financing studies.
Municipal fiscal impact and financing studies will also be required,
Accordingly, it is recommended that policies be introduced in the Regional
Official Plan amendment to appropriately phase the future growth areas within
Durham Region to ensure orderly and efficient provision of municipal services.
2.8 The Durham Regional Official Plan, and the Provincial Growth Plan should
prohibit large format retailing in strategic Employment Areas.
The current policy for Employment Areas in the Durham Regional Official Plan
permits, by amendment, the introduction of "retail warehousing", This type of
development is now widely known as the large format retailing, or power centres.
Large format retailing is usually a low intensity use that primarily serves the
residential areas (Living Areas). Yet, when located in Employment Areas, there
is usually infrequent transit service and little or no ability for walk-to customers.
Large format retailing (or retaitwarehouses) should be expressly prohibited in the
future Employment Areas along Highway 407 and other strategic and locations
such as the freeway links, through both amendments to the Durham Regional
Official Plan, and addition of new provisions in the Provincial Growth Plan. City
staff is making similar comments in responding to the recently released
Provincial Discussion Paper on Planning for Employment.
The Central Pickering Development Plan (for Seaton) contains a policy
prohibiting large format retailing in the lands designated Employment Areas.
3.0 Other Information
3.1 The Region of Durham is considering a financial impact study of the
Preferred Growth Scenario.
Area municipal staff had recommended that the Growing Durham Study add a
component that analyses the financial impact of the alternative growth scenarios.
This information was to provide input to the scenario evaluation process.
However, although Regional Council did not include financial impact analysis in
the terms of reference for the Growth Plan Implementation Study, Regional
Planning Committee has recently requested that it be done. As a result,
Regional staff have now opted to recpmmend a subsequent financial impact
study of only the Preferred Growth Scenario.
Report PO 32-08
July 14, 2008
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
Growing Durham
Page 11
Regional staff have indicated that a financial impact study could be completed in
approximately 18 months at significant cost with consultants conducting the
study. The fiscal impact of the Preferred Scenario will not be available when
final decisions are reached on a growth strategy or on the official plan
amendment. Further, no data will be provided on the financial impacts of the
growth strate~~ on local municipalities. Regional Tri-Committee, at its meeting
held June 10 , 2008, requested that Regional staff report back with a more
detailed outline of a financial impact study including a work program, the timing
and costs.
3.2 The Study is moving into Phase 5: refinement of Durham's Preferred
Growth Scenario and development of the related policy framework.
Following receipt of comments from area municipalities, other stakeholders and
the public including the comments made at the June 25th public meeting, the
consultants will continue to. refine the Preferred Growth Scenario and develop
the policy framework. Area municipalities can request meetings if required with
the consultants. In addition, a meeting with area municipalities will be scheduled
for late July or early August to provide an additional opportunity for input from
area municipal staff into the development of the Phase 5 work.
Attachments:
1. Text from Report Number PO 08-08
2. Figure 138 - Scenario 3 - Reinforcing Existing Communities, from Growing
Durham -Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario
Working Paper, as revised June 3, 2008 by Planning Committee; prepared by
Urban Strategies Inc. et ai, dated June 13, 2008..
,
,.'
,t
Report PO 32-08
July 14, 2008
Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study:
:;"1 ~) Growing Durham
Page 12
Prepared By:
k~
Steve Gaunt, MCIP, RPP
Senior Planner
Approved/Endorsed By:
4tfiZ~.. '
A L"'__.. ,
Neil Carroll, MCIP, RPP
Director, Planning & Development
~/(~
Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP
Manager, Policy
SG:cs
Copy: Chief Administrative Officer
Director, Corporate Services & Treasures
Director, Office of Sustainability
Director, Operations & Emergency Services
Division Head, Municipal Property & Engineering
Recommended for the consideration
of Pickering City Council
..
CiL{a#
ATTACHMENT I j TO
REPORT I PO ~ --< - () g'
REPORT TO
COUN elL
Report Number: PO 08-08
Date: Februai'j 19,2008 :) 'I 6
From:
Neil Carroll
Director, Planning & Development
Subject:
The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study
Draft Phase 1 & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis
Recommendation:
1. That Report PO 08-08 of the Director, Planning & Development regarding the
Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study, Draft Phase 1 . & 2:
Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis, be received;
2. That the Region of Durham be requested to expand the scope of its Growth Plan
Implementation Study to include an analysis of the financial implications related
to the provision of infrastructure and services necessary to support the growth
. scenarios to be developed in the next phases of the Study;
3. That the Region of Durham be requested to revise the Growth Plan
Implementation Study process to provide more regular on-going dialogue with
local municipalities respecting the Study progress,. and share raw data and
analysis with local municipalities early in the process' to allow for evaluation of,
comment on, and issue identification, prior to report releases; and
4. That the Region of Durham be requested to direct the consultants to incorporate
the following changes in the Final Phase I & 2 Report of the Growth Plan
Implementation Study:.
a) revise the methodology and assumptions used. in the "available land
suitable for intensification" analysis to reflect the market forces and
opportunities in play across the different parts of the Region; and
b) use the most recent draft boundary for the Downtown Pickering Urban
Growth Centre as established between Ministry of Public Infrastructure
Renewal and City staff; and
5. Further, that the City Clerk be requested to forward a copy of Report PO 08-08
together with Council's resolution on the matter to the Region of Durham and the
other area municipalities in Durham.
I~epc~ I~O 08-C8
ATTACHMENT J""~T"""""'- TO '
REPORT # PO :<.:) - 0 p -'"
=ec('.;arj i 9 2 CC8
Subject: The Region of Durham Grcwth Plan
! '7 Implementation Study
I '
Page 2
Executive Summary: Consultants have been engaged by the Region of Durham
to undertake a Growih Plan Implementation Study. The Study will complete the iast
phase of the Region's Official Plan Review and meet the requirement that the Regional
Official Plan conform to the Province's Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe.
The purpose of the Growth Plan Implementation Study is to identify a long range
development scenario and growth management policies, consistent with the Growth
Plan's intensification policies. . Based on the population and employment forecasts for
the Region, the Study will assess the need to designate additional urban area, identify
the' appropriate location for any required new urban land, and allocate populati,on and
employment growth to the area municipalities.
Regional Planning 'Committee released the Draft Phase 1 & 2 report on
January 8, 2008,' with . a request for comments from area municipalities by
February 11, 2008. In light of this deadline, this Report has been prepared for direct
consideration by City Council.
Staff finds the scope of the Growth Plan Implementation Study to be too narrow as it
does.notinclude an" analysis of the. financial implications for the, RegIon, local
municipalities and other providers of infrastructure and other services and facilities. An
expansion of the scope of the Study to include a financial analysis is necessary to
properly evaluate the different growth scenarios. ".
Staff also. find the short notice for consultation ,and lack of background data and
analysis render the City unable to provide timely and thorough analysis on the findings
and impact of Phase 1 & 20f the Study.
With respect to thE;' praft Phase, 1 & 2 report, t\NO, areas _ require revisions. _ The
assumptions uSC7d for the intensification analysis need to be refinedtd reflect Regional
differences in market forces and growth opportunities in the "base case": model, so that
future scenarios for growth are starting from the most appropriate assumptions. Lastly,
'the boundpry for Pickering's Urban Growth Centreshown.in Figure 36 should reflect the
most recEmtdraft boundaryestablished by MPIRand City.staff.
Financh,lhnplications: .' None
Sustainability Implications: This Study will recommend policies for the Region of
Durham to'implement the Province's Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe,
one of the Province's recent signature policies to curb urban sprawl in the GGH and
adopt sustainable development practices for future growth.
Repert PO C8-C8
.:\TTACHME.NT #~ . T('I
REPCiRI # pn ,.., -',.
)~.~-. -.-.
Fecr'..ar/ 19, 2008
Subject: The Regicn or Durham Growth Plan
Implementation Study
Page 3
,
'.'
')
()
1.0 Background:
1.1 The Provincial Growth Plan requires Durham Region to undertake an
implementation Study.
In April 2005, the Regional Planning Department identified population and
employment forecasts, new urban land needs and growth management policies
as part of the Durham Region Official Plan Review.
In June 2005, of the Province released the Final Growth Plan for the Greater
Golden Horseshoe. The Region removed growth management and related
population, employment and urban land needs policies from its recommended
Official Plan Review Amendment as the Amendment was in contlict with the
Provincial Plan. Subsequently, the Region engaged Urban Strategies Inc. with
Watson & Associates, Economists and TSH consulting engineers to address
these issues in a manner that will conform with the Provincial Growth Plan.
1.2 Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study is tailored to meet Durham's
needs while also fulfilling the requirements of the Provincial Growth Plan.
The Growth Plan Implementation Study has two major purposes:
. to prepare policies foran acceptable growth scenario for Durham Region and
its constituent local municipalities; and
o to bring the Regional Official Plan into conformity with the Growth Plan for the
Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) as required under the Places to
Grow Act;
The growth scenario for Durham Region would include allocation of population
and employment growth to the local municipalities in a manner that would
implement Growth Plan policies on intensification in Urban Growth Centres,
Intensification Corridors, Major Transit Station Areas and other built-up areas,
and achievement of new higher minimum density requirements for development
in Greenfield Areas (unbuilt urban lands). It would also set out whether the
amount of designated urban lands could accommodate the 2()31 population and
employment' forecasts in the Growth Plan, and if not, the Study would identify
how much and where the new urban lands should be designated.
The Region's Study has five phases of activity. The phases are outlined -in more
detail on Attachment #.1 to this Report, and the main headings are listed below:
1) Understanding Issues and Priorities;
2) Growth Assessment and Scenario Development;
3) Testing of the Growth Assessment and Scenario Building;
4) Growth Assessment and Growth Scenarios Report;
5) Preferred Growth Management Options and Policy Recommendations.
Repcrt PO 08-08
Ai""T'\"'.'~'\:n,." .... L
,. ij-tui,l~l~>' ,1
REPORI if PD_3..i;ji,'a.__
;=~"(1 :al~1 1'~ ')r:ui'.><
. ~-.- oJ '..#).-. ',JV
Subject: The Regien of Durham Growth Pian
:, '1~) Implementation Study
....-: ! /'
Page 4
The full Study process, events and milestones are detailed on Attachment #2 to
this Report. The timelines are very tight.
2.0 Overview of Report Findings and Consultation
2. 1 Among other matters, the Consultant's Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report provides a
'base case' for growth in the Region, to test how close the Region would
be to achieving the Growth Plan's targets generally following current
trends.
The Consultants have now completed the initial work for Phase 1 (Understanding
Issues and Priorities) and Phase 2 (Growth Assessment and Scenario
Development) of the project. The result of this work is presented in the draft
report entitled, "Growing Dur~am, Growth Plan Implementation Study,
Draft - Phase 1 & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis". A copy of
the Draft Report can be viewed at the Planning & Development Department.
Initial findings and observations from the Draft Report are that qiven current
market trends and forecasts, each of the policy targets in the Growth Plan will be
a challenge to achieve. The Draft Report finds that Durham Region can achieve
approximately 33% intensification within the defined "built-boundary", whereas
the Growth Plan requires 40% intensification. FLlrther the Draft Report shows
that in Greenfield Areas, Durham Region can come very close to achieving the
minimum 50 jobs and population per hectare (the analysis showed 48 jobs and
persons per hectare). With respect to urban land supply for employment lands,
the analysis shows a small deficit of employment lands to the year 2029 of about
50 gross hectares, With respect to residential land supply to the year 2029, the
analysis suggests a deficit of about 2100 hectares, primarily for low density
housing.
To arrive at these "base case" findings, the Consultants had held meetings with
area municipal staff, visited the area municipalities, and undertook a series of
investigations and created a computer model to assess growth opportunities and
constraints. The Draft Report: .
CII Outlines key area municipal initiatives, opportunities and challenges;
9 Identifies Regional growth drivers, opportunities and challenges (economic,
Infrastructure, market);
. Presents the methodologies and assumptions used in the various streams of
analysis, including: population, residential and employment forecasts;
intensification analysis; employment analysis; and greenfield analysis;
Report PO 08-08
u .' "1"lf:","", I,.~
~. j-l, I.. J, l~.' L.; \. ;; . I :
REPORj # PO ~ fj - 0_8_ __ __ ....
Fesr'Jar/ '19, 2008
Subject The Region of Durham Growth Plan
Implementaticn Study
Page 5
',- c) 'J
A,' :
,J /~ '",
. Presents the findings of the above analyses taking into consideration supply,
demand and capacity at the Regional le'lel (the forecasts etc. will be
disaggregated to the area municipal level in the next phase of the Study);
. Presents the preliminary results of the urban land needs assessment at the
Regional level. This will be tested and, if necessary, revised in future phases
as part of the detailed analysis of land needs at the area municipal level; and
. Provides a discussion on the principles and assumptions, parameters and
evaluation criteria for growth scenario development to be completed in the
next phase of the project.
2.2 A short consultation period is being held on the Draft Report, with a
deadline for comments of February 11, 2008.
At its meeting on January 8, 2008, the Region of Durham Planning Committee
released the consultant's draft report and initiated the consultation process for
this phase. The consultation involved:
. a meeting with area municipal staff on January 25, 2008;
. holding an information session at the Regional Headquarters in the evening
on January 29, 2008, open to the general public, agencies and/or any other
interested parties;
. placing notifications in newspapers throughout the Region;
. launching an interactive page on the Regional website to brand the Growth
Plan implementation initiative with the slogan "GROWING DURHAM - Our
Future, Our Community";'
D sending written notification . to all stakeholders on the ROP Review
consultation list, plus any additional persons who had requested to be
engaged in the Growth Plan implementation initiative; and
tit meeting with staff of Provincial Ministries during the period between
January 14 and 25, 2008.
2.3 The input from the consultation is to be incorporated into the Final Phase 1
&2 report and will inform the next phase of the project.
City staff has recently met with the consultants on January 25, 2008, to receive a
briefing on the Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report, raise questions and provide initial
comments. A second meeting was held on February 5, 2008 to share ideas on
development scenarios to be considered by the consultants in Phase 3 of the
Study.
Re~crt PO 08-08
J
3J-O@
The Region of Durham Grow'th Plan
Implementation Study
!~ecr:~ari 13 2fJC8
Subject:
"I: '). 1
"",I.:..
Page 6
3.0 Staff Comments on the Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report:
3.1 Expand the Scope of the Study to evaluate the financial implications of
Growth Scenarios:
Despite the initial recommendations of Regional staff, the terms of reference
adopted by Regional Council for the Growth Plan Implementation Study do not
include financial impact analysis of the Growth Scenarios. Without this financial
information, it is not possible for the Region of Durham, with its range of service
providers, local municipalities and partner agencies such as school boards, to
evaluate the financial implications related to the provision of infrastructure,
facilities and services for the different Growth Scenarios.
It is necessary to have this information before local municipalities can judge
whether the growth that will be proposed and incorporated in the Region of
Durham Official Plan, and subsequently reflected in mandated amendments to
local official plans can be accommodated in an affordable manner. In addition,
financial impact on other community services such as hospitals cannot" be
determined.
Accordingly, it is recommended that Council request the Region of Durham to
expand the scope of the Growth Plan Implementation Study to include an
analysis of the financial implications related to the provision of infrastructure and
services necessary to support the growth scenarios.
3.2 Municipal staff should be engaged at an earlier stage of each Phase, and
on an on~going basis throughout the Study.
In the Durham Region Official Plan Review process, preliminary data and
analysis wa$ shared with local municipal staff at each stage of its development.
This permitted local staff to provide the more detailed knowledge of local
conditions and fostered a consensus about the best analytic techniques to arrive
at the best possible modelling of population, employment and land needs in the
Region. It also allowed local staff to en~ure that technical considerations would
not undermine local strategies for future growth.
However, this type of collaborative process has not been followed for the Growth
Plan Implementation Study, possibly due to the tight time frames for product
delivery in the study Terms of Reference.
Repcrt PO C8-C8
Ail' ACHMENT # t TO
REPORT I PO 7. ,,:} - (l .0,
'-:.:oC(' 'ar/"' G )(iC8
r _ u .... j.,JJ _r...J ...J
Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan
Implementation Study
Page 7
In order to achieve the benefits of a collaborative planning exercise, it is
recommended that the study consultants be requested to provide earlier release
of report drafts for the future phases of the Study and of the data and analysis
upon which the Study results are founded. It is also requested that the raw data
and data analysis for Phases 1 & 2 of the Study be provided and that the next
phase of the Study not proceed until comments and 'ground-truthing' of the data
can be provided to the satisfaction of Regional and local planning staffs.
3.3 Pickering's Urban Growth Centre Boundary (Figure 36 in the Draft Report)
should. be revised to reflect the draft boundary established between
Ministry of Infrastructure Renewal JMPIR) staff and City staff.
Urban Growth Centres are an integral part of the intensification strategies in the
. Provincial Growth Plan. Pickering's Urban Growth Centre is one of 25 identified
in the Growth Plan across the Greater Golden Horseshoe. In Durham Region,
the only other Urban Growth Centre is Oshawa. MPIR staff' have been
consulting with City staff on the proposed boundary for Pickering's Urban Growth
Centre.
The Draft Phase 1 &2 Report shows the "Draft Proposed" boundary released by .
MPIR staff to Pickering staff in the summer of 2007 for comment. City staff
proposed a number of minor changes to ensure that some valley lands, highway
and roadway lands would be removed, thereby reducing pressures to achieve
the challenging 200 person and jobs minimum density for Urban Growth Centre
development on these undevelopable lands (see Attachment #3 - Draft Proposed
Scope and Scale for the Downtown Pickering Urban GroWth Centre).
City staff has since received. verbal confirmation that MPIR has accepted the
draft boundaries recommended by City staff. Therefore, it is requested that the
phase 1 & 2 Report be revised to reflect the draft boundary established between
MPIRand City staff.
3.4 The. methodology and assumptions for the analysis of available land
suitable for intensification should be refined to reflect different market
fon:es and opportunities for growth in different parts of the Region.
. In evaluating how much intensification can be accommodated within the
Region's Built-up Areas, a model was created and a series of assumptions were
maqe. Staff is concerned that the base case model is too simplistic and does
not reflect the complexity of this large region. As this model and its assumptions
are going to be used to create and test alternate growth scenarios, it is critical
that the model be refined to reflect the varying market forces and growth
opportunities between the different urban areas.
l
,,'
:?
Report PO 08-08
ATTACHMENT I r TO
REPOR11 PO ~ .J... - () (~
:= ,..... r: -, i a f..t -1 l-' ,-" .r t""! ,....
, :;;,,1 - I'J : ';;;I, .:.,-_uC
Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan
:.' ~~ Implementation Study
Page 8
The methodology and assumptions for the analysis of available land suitable for
intensification are discussed in Section 5.2.3, Item 3 of the draft report. (The
written text for this item is confusing, and the following comments are based on
the verbal clarifications from the consultants.)
In Step 4, it was assumed that only 25% of "vacant", "under-construction" and
"under-developed" lands in Regional Corridors would see intensified
development by 2031. It was also assumed that only 50% of "vacant",
"under-construction" and "under-developed" lands in Centres and Potential
Activity areas would be intensified by 2031.
City staff has two concerns with this. Firstly, any property just under construction
now should be eliminated from redevelopment in the next twenty years.
Secondly, in the Pickering/Ajax/Whitby area, staff considers the assumptions on
the amount of land that may redevelop by 2031 too low; because of:
- 1) the market forces and opportunities created by the identification of
Pickering's Downtown as an Urban Growth Centre;
2) the greater proximity within Durham Region of Pickering/AjaxlWhitby to
the large' concentrations of employment activities in Toronto arid York
Region;
3) the completion of the planning for Seaton, and;
4) the anticipated construction timing of key Regional (piped and .road) and
Provincial (highway) infrastructure.
Finally, staff suggests that the assumptions should also be adjusted to reflect the
different potentials in Oshawa/Courtice as well as in Clarington.
.In Step 5 of the inteqsification analysis, the Consultants assumed that, of the
vacant, under-construction and under-developed land that will redevelop by
2031, only 20% of the lands would be developed for non-residential uses in the
corridors and centres. Staff consider this percentage to be too low in Pickering
due to both the City's designation as an Urban Growth Centre where jobs are as
important as residential, as well as the on-going demand for retail and personal
service uses to serve the significant increases in population to 2031.
Accordingly, it is recommended that the Region request the consultant to
re-examine the model used in the base case analysis, to reflect a more refined
range of development assumptions across the Region. It is critical that the .
model be refined prior to completing Phase 2, so that alterative growth scenarios
are developed on a more accurate basis. This approach should also lead to a
more meaningful evaluation of the growth scenarios. .
Repcrt PO 08-.J8
.......-".."'.,"1'111.--..
ATTACl-iM8\lT J i TO
HEPOR1 # PO ~.;.l - 0 fl
February 19, 2008
Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan
Implementation Study
Page 9
'.) r1
/L~
Attachments:
1. Growth Plan Implementation Study - Phases of Activity
2. Growth Plan Implementation Study and ROP Amendment - Chronology of
Events and Key Milestones
3. Most Recent Draft Proposed Scope & Scale of the Downtown Pickering Urban
Growth Centre (established between City and MPIR staff - October 19,2007
'Prepared By:
Approved/Endorsed By:
I RPP
ning & Development
Steve Gaunt, MCIP, RPP
Senior Planner
---~tJ~- .
Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP
Manager, Policy
SG:jf
Attachments
Copy: Chief Administrative Officer
.:';
Reco:me:::;~J:atio)~kering City Council
---->--- "-
ThomasJ. Quinn\?RDMR,-'CMM
Chief Administrative Officer
Emerging growth nodes:
e/@ transit village: existing/future
o
rIJ
.
o
~#
SCENAlUO :1 - REINFORCINC EXISTINC COMMUNITIES
LAND llEYONl) URBAN AR.EA 130UNDARY AND URBAN STRUCTURE
LEGEND
Nl )11 I)JI(l1 II<)N II((),\II'I .\NNIN{, {,()\I\IIIIII UN IUNI \.2111IX 1\ INDIC\III) IN 1<1 I) IllIX).\ 1111 UlN\UII,\NI' 11..\,\11\1<1 VI) \\IIN(, 1111
I ()N(, III{\\I \J11I1,1 1 ~II'I tlY\\1 NI I !,NI) NIIIII\NI) 1,\lI'IIC\II{lN\ltm I L1IUIU IIVIN{; ,\1<1./\ I "Nil NIIIl
..
.
.
o
INCtuDf AS lONG H-RM
H1f\O'tM!Nl ~ND
REVIEW LONG-TERM
,MI'LOYM!NT lAND Nffi)
ALONG <07 COllRIOCR
,~
"--"--
"
...
...
...
,
...
II
,.
...
LAKE ONTARIO
Ii
C)
rr;
~I(.UIU 1'1\
"2:
built up area
greenfield
urban area boundary
future Living Area
future Employment Area
regional centre
urban growth centre
urban nOde-existing/planned
emerging waterfront vii/age
UOIT/Durham College
mobility hub
future centre
Darlington/Pickering generation
facilities
Nlll! Illllllll'ltt'\llll'\ltl'\l"I\'\'-lll\INll!lliltl (,It(I\\ I1I1 '\NI)'lllINlllltl)lllltlll..I(,1111111IH \11\ lNlll,IIN\ JI)(ll.JJ:(HlI\Jllj,ltl'llllNI::\1 ,'\N])!\II'lll'-\IINIl.I'J\\Nf11l.1j'l,II<.1 \ [1'\,JIltl....
II1I Ittll'llt^]111,\ltl\:\1....lllUlll~ 1........tH.\!II,l( '\11\ IlH '\1111:.\ll'ltl\'.\1I1'-J11 \f\.JIP...\NI)I.\NI1'..1U....IIt\II)IlII'IU)\.1l1! (,l)NI[(,LlllU'I~I'Il11N[I\1 11I\llllj'\llNI" I)l,tt IllIlll "1_.\11 (11
\\'\I'I'INL 1111 [l)l1\1 Il'lllIZ! L!o!..{)\\ 111:\1(1 \"11 I L.1....,IZ'\1111 Illlo!..1 \\ II....{ IN,"\IUtIIN{ IllIll \11 N\lt.q~'\l 1111U1'\LI \Nl)lj\'IHZllllH.I( Ii '\IUltl',IIH.II\\'\\ .~.,' ItIC.III (11 '\.-\'. \Nl) \I\lll{,
1\\'I)t~l'll)1U~IIHllt.... llN( I tlll....ll1 \ILil,I".'\Itl ltl\lll\lllllllltl\I'\lNIN\ I\Nll \1,1 '....\I'I'I,ll:';l\l\!I!, 1Z11'1,1'INIIIII (,It\l\\ 1111'1 \N (.1Z1 l'" I \1\JllNIIllll1Itl\l\1 (IN[:\I,h1'lltlIZllii'\Jl
\1t,INlt 1\'.'\11111....' \ lIt 1111 ,{ I N,'.l,")
"H
(i)
'*,
wi
,~)
iQi
.CXj
-i
:;:)
\_./"J
r,:;:
G,