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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD 32-08 Citq o~ REPORT TO COUNCIL Report Number: PD 32-08 Date: July 14, 2008 3 0 4 From: Neil Carroll Director, Planning & Development Subject: , Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: Growing Durham Phases 3 & 4 Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario Working Paper, prepared by Urban Strategies Inc. et ai, dated June 13, 2008, as revised to show Regional Planning Directions Recommendations: 1. That Report PO 32-08 of the Director, Planning & Development, regarding the Growth Scenario Working Paper, dated June 13,2008, presenting the outcomes of Phases 3 & 4 of the Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study be received; 2. That the comments contained in Report PO 32-08 on the Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario for the Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study be endorsed, and that the Region of Durham be r~quested to: a) support the land use structure with Planning Committee directions noted, shown on Figure 13 B and provided as Attachment #2 to Report PD 32-08 with the following further refinements: . increase the depth of the future Employment Areas in Pickering along Highway 407, east of Westney Road, to a minimum 600 metres, and where appropriate, increase the depth on selected blocks up to 1,000 metres; . support the designation to future Employment Areas of the remnant parcel of "whitebelt" lands located east of the airport; and, . expand to the south the Future Centres designations, currently shown at the two intersections of the Seventh Concession Road with Salem and Lakeridge Roads, to incorporate the Highway 407 transitway stations and adjacent lands, thereby allowing mixed residential, commercial and high intensity office uses, and consider designation of a future transit village on the south side of the Highway 407 transitway; Report PO 32-08 July 14, 2008 Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: .f) j Growing Durham Page 2 b) in updating the population and employment tables' for Pickering to reflect Planning Committee's revisions to the Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario, increase the employment figures for Pickering to include the 35,000 jobs identified by the Provincial Central Pickering Development Plan for Seaton, and allocate jobs arising from the future Employment Areas, future Living Areas and intensification in South Pickering, at a ratio of no less than one job for each three new residents as is applied across the rest of the Region; c) in detailing the policies for the Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario, · establish strong phasing policies respecting the timing and process for local municipalities to bring new "whitebelt" lands into the urban area in order to address the logical and orderly provision of infrastructure and phasing of growth with municipal fiscal priorities; · establish new policies prohibiting large format retailing within future Employment Areas; · establish strong phasing policies respecting future Living Areas that may be affected by incompatible noise from a possible future Pickering airport so as to prevent residential or other noise sensitive uses from being established until resolution of the appropriate noise protection standard and a decision on the development and timing of the possible airport are reached; and · better clarify the different characteristics of Transit Villages, Urban Nodes, Future Centres and Waterfront Villages; d) with respect to strategic future Employment Areas needed beyond 2031, work with the Ministry of Public. Infrastructure Renewal to establish policies permitting the Region to acknowledge as part of current Regional Plan conformity amendment, the long term intended use for these lands as future Employment Areas; e) support the City of Pickering in its request to the Ministry of Transportation in commenting on the Highway 407 Environmental Assessment, to relocate the proposed Highway 407 maintenance yard from the south side of the proposed interchange with Salem Road to allow maximum intensification around the Highway 407 transitway; f) obtain from Urban Strategies Inc.. and forward to area municipalities the detailed information on the amount, types and locations of intensification projected for the existing urban areas used in the background work not contained in the Working Paper; and RepQrtPD 32-08 July 14, 2008 Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: Growing Durham Page 3 ::, 6 3. Further, that a copy of Report PO 32-08 and Pickering Council's resolution on the matter be forwarded to the Region of Durham, Urban Strategies Inc., other Durham Area Municipalities, the Ministry of Energy & Infrastructure, the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing, and the Ministry of Transportation. Executive Summary: On June 13, 2008, the Region of Durham released for comment a report entitled Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario Working Paper, incorporating the directions of Regional Planning Committee on June 3, 2008. The report is the outcome of Phases 3 & 4 of the Region's Growth Plan Implementation Study, entitled Growing Durham. The Study is being undertaken for the Region by Urban Strategies Inc., Watson & Associates and TSH. The Region requests comments by July 14, 2008. For Pickering, the Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario as revised by Planning Committee, identifies the need to designate lands beyond the current urban area (South Pickering and Seaton) to accommodate future employment and residential land needs to 2031. The Scenario is shown on Firgure 13B and is provided as Attachment #2 to this Report to Council. In essence, all lands in north-east Pickering, commonly referred to as the "whitebelt" lands in the Provincial Growth Plan, are proposed for future urban uses. Also for Pickering, the Scenario includes the identification of a Mobility Hub at South Pickering's GO Station, a Waterfront Village around Frenchman's Bay, and includes intensification in Pickering's Urban Growth Centre and other corridors and centres. Staff supports the Recommended Growth Scenario, with Planning Committee's directions, subject to a number of further revisions for Pickering. Key revisions include increasing the depth of future Employment Areas adjacent to Highway 407, incorporating Seaton's 35,000 jobs, reflecting jobs to resident's ratio of no less than 1:3 for the rest of Pickering's growth, and expanding the Future Centres in north-east Pickering. In moving forward to Phase 5 of the study the Region and its consultants need to establish a strong policy framework addressing phasing, the protection of strategic Employment Areas beyond 2031; and clarification of several terms. Financial Implications: No direct implications from providing comments on the Phases 3 & 4 Working Paper of the Growing Durham Study. Report PD 32-08 July 14,2008 Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: "3 7 Growing Durham Page 4 Sustainability Implications: The recommendations contained in this Report to Council respecting increasing the employment assigned to Pickering, increasing the depth of the future Employment Areas, and requiring the timely phasing of new urban areas are aimed at increasing the economic sustainability of the City. Recommendations to establish expanded Urban Centres and/or Transit Villages around the Highway 407/Salem and lake Ridge Road interchanges is intended to enable responsible development to occur around transit stations. 1.0 Background 1.1 The Region is implementing the Province's Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe through a Growth Plan Implementation Study entitled "Growing Durham". In August, 2007, the Region of Durham commenced a 5-phase Growth Plan Study. The Growth Plan Implementation Study has three fundamental purposes: to provide a policy framework that meets the Growth Plan requirements; to develop a growth strategy that will guide the Region's development until 2031; and to allocate that growth to the individual local municipalities. The study is being undertaken for the Region by Urban Strategies Inc., Watson & Associates and TSH. In February 2008, Pickering City Council commented to the Region on the Growth Plan Implementation Study Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis (see Report PO 08-08, Attachment #1). Phase 1 & 2 of the Study examined growth issues in each municipality and analyzed growth patterns if current development trends did not change. Phase 3 & 4' of the Study examined alterative scenarios for growth within Durham, evaluated those scenarios, and recommended a preferred growth scenario. In late May and early June, 2008, the following reports were released by the consultants: · Scenario Evaluation and Consultant Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario Working Paper, dated May 27,2008; · Addendum Report, dated June 2, 2008 (issued to correct mapping errors following meeting with area municipal staff); and, · Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario Working Paper, dated June 13, 2008, as revised to incorporate the directions of Regional Planning Committee on June 3, 2008. Report PO 32-08 July 14, ~098_ Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: Growing Durham Page 5 n Regional Planning Committee has now invited public and agency comment by July 14, 2008 on the Preferred Growth Scenario with direction that certain revisions appear in the June 13th Revised Working Paper. Refinement of the Preferred Growth Scenario is continuing in cooperation with regional and local municipal staff. Phase 5 of the Study will be the refinement of the Preferred Growth Scenario and development of the Regional Plan Durham policy framework to achieve the intensification targets, greenfield density targets, and related policies and provisions of the Provincial Growth Plan. That work is anticipated in September, with an amendment to the Durham Regional Official Plan following in early 2009. The City is also required to bring its Official Plan into conformity with the Provincial Growth Plan The City's work requires details arising from Phase 5 of the Regional study and the final Regional official plan amendment. 1.2 The Growth Scenario Working Paper continues to identify a shortfall in urban land to accommodate both residential and employment uses. The Working Paper shows that the population and employment allocated to Durham Region by the Province using the intensification and density targets set out in Places to Grow, requires land beyond that currently designated for urban uses in the Regional Plan. These lands are commonly referred to as the "whitebelt" lands in the Provincial Growth Plan. In Phases 1 & 2, the consultant's report showed that, without policy chanQes, accommodating the Growth Plan targets of 960,000 residents and 350,000 jobs for Durham by 2031 would require lands for additional low and medium-density residential units with shortfalls of 3,122 hectares of living area land and 505 hectares of employment lands. The market "base case" assumed 35% intensification in existing built areas (below the Growth Plan requirement of 40%); and a greenfield density of 44 persons and jobs per hectare in greenfield urban areas (below the Growth Plan requirement of 50 people and jobs per hectare). In Phase 3 & 4, the consultant's working paper showed that with policy chanQes to increase densities for low density housing from 25 units per net hectare to 28 uph, to achieve the 40% intensification target within the built-up areas, and to achieve 47 persons and jobs per hectare in the greenfield areas, additional urban land is still required, but only two-thirds of that required under the base case assumptions. Report PO 32-08 July 14, 2008 I ' Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: ~~ D 9 Growing Durham Page 6 1.3 The consultants evaluated several Alternative Growth Scenarios for Durham Region, and ultimately recommended Scenario 3: Reinforcing Existing Communities. The growth scenarios proposed differing amounts of, and locations for, intensification and new urban living and Employment Areas. The three scenarios evaluated were: 1. Continuing a Dominant Western Anchor - directing most new growth to Pickering and Whitby; 2. Focusing on a Central Hub for Durham - directing most new growth to the current central core of the Region in Whitby/Oshawa/Courtice; and, 3. Reinforcing Existing Communities - balancing the forecasted growth across the Lake Ontario shoreline municipalities with enhanced growth in north-east Pickering and a strategic reserve of employment lands along the future Highway 407 alignment. The consultants recommended Scenario 3. In addition to balanced growth across the Lake Ontario shoreline municipalities, it proposed measured growth in the Northern communities. Further, it reinforced all key drivers important to the economic prosperity of the Region. 1.4 Regional Planning Committee directed revisions be made to Scenario 3 to enhance opportunities for growth in north-east Pickering prior to accepting it as the Recommended Preferred Scenario and circulating it for consultation. Figure 13B from the consultant's Growth Scenario Working Paper is included as Attachment #2 to this Report to Council. This Figure is titled Scenario 3 - Reinforcing Existing Communities: Lands Beyond the Urban Area Boundary and Urban Structure (showing directions from June 3rd Planning Committee). Regional Planning Committee is seeking comments on this Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario by July 14, 2008. Further detailing of Scenario 3 is still continuing as further meetings occur between study consultants and regional and local municipal staff. For Pickering, the revised Preferred Growth Scenario proposes designation of another block of land east of the Pickering Airport site as future Employment Areas. Further, Planning Committee proposed that the amount of future Employment Areas along Highway 407 be reviewed. For Pickering, the discussion revolved around increasing the depth of the future Employment Areas so as to extend it from approximately Highway 7 to north of Highway407 and northwards towards the Seventh Concession Road. Future Living Area designations are proposed east of Greenwood, around Kinsale and north of the Highway 407 Employment Areas. Future Centres are proposed at the intersection of the Seventh Concession Road and Salem Road, and the Seventh Concession Road and Lake Ridge Road. A Mobility Hub has been identified at downtown Pickering's Urban Growth Centre. Staff support these changes. Revort pn 32-08 July 14, 2008 t . Sutject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: Growing Durham Page 7 ,~i 'I D The forecasts in the Working Paper suggest that the revised scenario would attract 40,595 new jobs to Pickering by 2031 out of a total of 142,805 new jobs for Durham as a whole, and 132,875 additional residents to Pickering out of a Durham total of 411,304. However, since the consultants have not yet revised the job or residential population forecast to reflect Planning Committee directions for more employment lands in north-east Pickering, further upward adjustments to these numbers are anticipated. 2.0 Discussion: 2.1 Most of staff's earlier concerns with Scenario 3 were addressed by the directions of Planning Committee on July 3rd, although a number of further refinements are recommended. Many of staff's concerns with the May 27 Working Paper conclusions have been addressed in the recent changes made to the Preferred Scenario Three - the 'Reinforcing Existing Communities' scenario, including: . location of a mobility hub in downtown Pickering; · designation of more employment lands both east of the Pickering Airport lands and along Highway 407; . designation of more Living Area lands in north-east Pickering. A number of concerns remain. 2.2 The depth of the future Employment Areas adjacent to Highway 407 should be increased to between 600 and 1000 metres. Whereas the May 2ih Working Paper included 400 metre wide bands of employment lands along both sides of Highway 407 east of Westney Road in Pickering, the June 13th revision, responding to Planning Committee directions, indicated that the long-term employment land need should be reviewed in this location. In order to accommodate larger parcel sizes and better capitalize on the significant locational advantages of a 400 series highway, the width of the employment bands should be widened to 600 metres generally and up to 1,000 metres in depth in selected locations. This view is shared by Regional Economic Development staff. Staff supports the suggestions of the study consultants made at a recent meeting with staff to extend the employment designation south to Highway 7 while retaining a future Living Areas designation around Kinsale. Staff is also considering the strategic need to extend the future Employment Areas north to the Seventh Concession. Report PO 32-08 July 14, 2008 Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: 5 '11 Growing Durham Page 8 In addition, for similar reasons, staff also support an increase in the depth of the employment lands proposed at the strategic intersection of Highway 407 and the connector to Highway 401 and similar employment bands located along Highway 407 further to the east. 2.3 The remnant piece of "whitebelt" lands east of the Pickering Airport site should be designated as future Employment Areas. The Preferred Scenario, as revised by Planning Committee, proposes designating the large area of whitebelt land east of the airport lands as future Employment Areas, leaving a small remnant parcel as "whitebelt" lands to the north. The remnant parcel should also be designated as Employment Areas at this time. 2.4 The two proposed Future Centres along the Seventh Concession Road should be expanded to the south to include lands adjacent to the Highway 407 Transitway and/or considered for Transit Village designations. Future Centres proposed for the Seventh Concession Road at both Salem and Lake Ridge Roads have the potential to serve as transit villages with a range of transit supportive land uses and densities jf expanded southwards to incorporate the transit stations proposed on the south side of Highway 407. It is recommended that the two proposed Future Centres be expanded southwards to incorporate the transitway stations and a broad range of transit supportive land uses and densities be permitted. 2.5 Characteristics of several designations, including Transit Villages, Urban Nodes, Future Centres and Waterfront Villages should be clarified In order to understand the roles of the new proposed features in the new urban structure of Pickering and the Region of Durham, clarification of proposed functions, land uses and densities should be provided. 2.6 The jobs allocated to Pickering should assign the 35,000 jobs identified by the Central Pickering Development Plan to Seaton, while maintaining at least a 1:3 jobs per resident ratio for the rest of Pickering's growth. The consultants are requested to provide detailed background work on intensification. This information is required to enable staff to determine where and to what extent residential growth is being assigned to the Urban Growth Centre and other intensification corridors and centres. Also, staff requires information on the amount of jobs assigned related to intensification. This information is requested at the consultant's earliest convenience. Report PO 32-08 July 14, 2008 Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: Growing Durham Page 9 .., " ') ..."v.' ! 1..__ Staff recognizes the tables in the Working Paper on population and employment have not been revised to reflect the changes directed by Planning Committee. These revised tables should be also be forwarded as soon as possible to staff. In revising the tables for Pickering, the Region and the consultants must address the current under-allocation of jobs in Seaton. The total allocation of 40,595 jobs to Pickering in the Recommended Preferred Scenario to 2031 appears to disregard the 35,000 jobs identified for Seaton in the Provincial Central Pickering Development Plan. If the 35,000 jobs are part of the figure of 40,595 jobs, the remaining jobs to be created in the rest of Pickering to 2031 is only about 5,600 jobs. Yet our population (outside of Seaton) is expected to increase by 68,900. The consultants have indicated that if a Federal airport is developed, 10,000 jobs will be added to the Pickering jobs allocation as a bonus, but is not allocated in the scenario at this time. In revising the tables for the Revised Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario, it is recommended that 35,000 jobs for Seaton be included as a baseline, and the remaining jobs allocations for the rest of Pickering by 2031 be at a ratio of no less than 1:3 jobs per resident. This ratio is realistic in light of the City's strategic position as the western anchor of the Region of Durham. 2.7 Phasing policies should be included in the Re.gional Plan addressing the timing for area municipalities to bring new urban areas on stream so as to minimize adverse fiscal impacts and potential noise of a possible future airport. . While it is appropriate to designate lands in north-east Pickering for future Living Areas and future Employment Areas at this time, policies should be introduced to phase the timing of actual development. For Pickering, new development areas should not be allowed to compete with the build-out of Seaton, for employment or residential uses. Similarly, intensification is a key element of achieving the City's vision of its Downtown Urban Growth Centre. The City and the Region should not be burdened with the costs of providing several sets of services and facilities for the new residents and employment area at the same time. In addition, new development areas immediately east of the potential future airport may be impacted by noise should an airport be constructed. The GT AA has suggested that a higher noise protection standard (a 25 NEF standard) be used which would increase the area restricted from residential uses. Phasing policies should restrict the timing of these lands from being developed for residential uses until resolution of the noise protection standard and a decision on the development and timing of the possible airport are reached. Report PO 32-08 July 14, 2008 -L)" (; Q , lJ U Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: /. -1 '')7 Growing Durham ~''\ \ .....-' , '" Page 10 A decision has not yet been reached on how piped services will be provided to north-east Pickering, However, the Regional Master Water and Sanitary Services Plan is underway to address this matter. There are two different options for sanitary that would result in different phasing of development Thus, phasing policies should coordinate the timing of development with the Region's servicing strategy and completion of related fiscal impact and financing studies. Municipal fiscal impact and financing studies will also be required, Accordingly, it is recommended that policies be introduced in the Regional Official Plan amendment to appropriately phase the future growth areas within Durham Region to ensure orderly and efficient provision of municipal services. 2.8 The Durham Regional Official Plan, and the Provincial Growth Plan should prohibit large format retailing in strategic Employment Areas. The current policy for Employment Areas in the Durham Regional Official Plan permits, by amendment, the introduction of "retail warehousing", This type of development is now widely known as the large format retailing, or power centres. Large format retailing is usually a low intensity use that primarily serves the residential areas (Living Areas). Yet, when located in Employment Areas, there is usually infrequent transit service and little or no ability for walk-to customers. Large format retailing (or retaitwarehouses) should be expressly prohibited in the future Employment Areas along Highway 407 and other strategic and locations such as the freeway links, through both amendments to the Durham Regional Official Plan, and addition of new provisions in the Provincial Growth Plan. City staff is making similar comments in responding to the recently released Provincial Discussion Paper on Planning for Employment. The Central Pickering Development Plan (for Seaton) contains a policy prohibiting large format retailing in the lands designated Employment Areas. 3.0 Other Information 3.1 The Region of Durham is considering a financial impact study of the Preferred Growth Scenario. Area municipal staff had recommended that the Growing Durham Study add a component that analyses the financial impact of the alternative growth scenarios. This information was to provide input to the scenario evaluation process. However, although Regional Council did not include financial impact analysis in the terms of reference for the Growth Plan Implementation Study, Regional Planning Committee has recently requested that it be done. As a result, Regional staff have now opted to recpmmend a subsequent financial impact study of only the Preferred Growth Scenario. Report PO 32-08 July 14, 2008 Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: Growing Durham Page 11 Regional staff have indicated that a financial impact study could be completed in approximately 18 months at significant cost with consultants conducting the study. The fiscal impact of the Preferred Scenario will not be available when final decisions are reached on a growth strategy or on the official plan amendment. Further, no data will be provided on the financial impacts of the growth strate~~ on local municipalities. Regional Tri-Committee, at its meeting held June 10 , 2008, requested that Regional staff report back with a more detailed outline of a financial impact study including a work program, the timing and costs. 3.2 The Study is moving into Phase 5: refinement of Durham's Preferred Growth Scenario and development of the related policy framework. Following receipt of comments from area municipalities, other stakeholders and the public including the comments made at the June 25th public meeting, the consultants will continue to. refine the Preferred Growth Scenario and develop the policy framework. Area municipalities can request meetings if required with the consultants. In addition, a meeting with area municipalities will be scheduled for late July or early August to provide an additional opportunity for input from area municipal staff into the development of the Phase 5 work. Attachments: 1. Text from Report Number PO 08-08 2. Figure 138 - Scenario 3 - Reinforcing Existing Communities, from Growing Durham -Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Scenario Working Paper, as revised June 3, 2008 by Planning Committee; prepared by Urban Strategies Inc. et ai, dated June 13, 2008.. , ,.' ,t Report PO 32-08 July 14, 2008 Subject: Region of Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study: :;"1 ~) Growing Durham Page 12 Prepared By: k~ Steve Gaunt, MCIP, RPP Senior Planner Approved/Endorsed By: 4tfiZ~.. ' A L"'__.. , Neil Carroll, MCIP, RPP Director, Planning & Development ~/(~ Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP Manager, Policy SG:cs Copy: Chief Administrative Officer Director, Corporate Services & Treasures Director, Office of Sustainability Director, Operations & Emergency Services Division Head, Municipal Property & Engineering Recommended for the consideration of Pickering City Council .. CiL{a# ATTACHMENT I j TO REPORT I PO ~ --< - () g' REPORT TO COUN elL Report Number: PO 08-08 Date: Februai'j 19,2008 :) 'I 6 From: Neil Carroll Director, Planning & Development Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Draft Phase 1 & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis Recommendation: 1. That Report PO 08-08 of the Director, Planning & Development regarding the Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study, Draft Phase 1 . & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis, be received; 2. That the Region of Durham be requested to expand the scope of its Growth Plan Implementation Study to include an analysis of the financial implications related to the provision of infrastructure and services necessary to support the growth . scenarios to be developed in the next phases of the Study; 3. That the Region of Durham be requested to revise the Growth Plan Implementation Study process to provide more regular on-going dialogue with local municipalities respecting the Study progress,. and share raw data and analysis with local municipalities early in the process' to allow for evaluation of, comment on, and issue identification, prior to report releases; and 4. That the Region of Durham be requested to direct the consultants to incorporate the following changes in the Final Phase I & 2 Report of the Growth Plan Implementation Study:. a) revise the methodology and assumptions used. in the "available land suitable for intensification" analysis to reflect the market forces and opportunities in play across the different parts of the Region; and b) use the most recent draft boundary for the Downtown Pickering Urban Growth Centre as established between Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal and City staff; and 5. Further, that the City Clerk be requested to forward a copy of Report PO 08-08 together with Council's resolution on the matter to the Region of Durham and the other area municipalities in Durham. I~epc~ I~O 08-C8 ATTACHMENT J""~T"""""'- TO ' REPORT # PO :<.:) - 0 p -'" =ec('.;arj i 9 2 CC8 Subject: The Region of Durham Grcwth Plan ! '7 Implementation Study I ' Page 2 Executive Summary: Consultants have been engaged by the Region of Durham to undertake a Growih Plan Implementation Study. The Study will complete the iast phase of the Region's Official Plan Review and meet the requirement that the Regional Official Plan conform to the Province's Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The purpose of the Growth Plan Implementation Study is to identify a long range development scenario and growth management policies, consistent with the Growth Plan's intensification policies. . Based on the population and employment forecasts for the Region, the Study will assess the need to designate additional urban area, identify the' appropriate location for any required new urban land, and allocate populati,on and employment growth to the area municipalities. Regional Planning 'Committee released the Draft Phase 1 & 2 report on January 8, 2008,' with . a request for comments from area municipalities by February 11, 2008. In light of this deadline, this Report has been prepared for direct consideration by City Council. Staff finds the scope of the Growth Plan Implementation Study to be too narrow as it does.notinclude an" analysis of the. financial implications for the, RegIon, local municipalities and other providers of infrastructure and other services and facilities. An expansion of the scope of the Study to include a financial analysis is necessary to properly evaluate the different growth scenarios. ". Staff also. find the short notice for consultation ,and lack of background data and analysis render the City unable to provide timely and thorough analysis on the findings and impact of Phase 1 & 20f the Study. With respect to thE;' praft Phase, 1 & 2 report, t\NO, areas _ require revisions. _ The assumptions uSC7d for the intensification analysis need to be refinedtd reflect Regional differences in market forces and growth opportunities in the "base case": model, so that future scenarios for growth are starting from the most appropriate assumptions. Lastly, 'the boundpry for Pickering's Urban Growth Centreshown.in Figure 36 should reflect the most recEmtdraft boundaryestablished by MPIRand City.staff. Financh,lhnplications: .' None Sustainability Implications: This Study will recommend policies for the Region of Durham to'implement the Province's Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, one of the Province's recent signature policies to curb urban sprawl in the GGH and adopt sustainable development practices for future growth. Repert PO C8-C8 .:\TTACHME.NT #~ . T('I REPCiRI # pn ,.., -',. )~.~-. -.-. Fecr'..ar/ 19, 2008 Subject: The Regicn or Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Page 3 , '.' ') () 1.0 Background: 1.1 The Provincial Growth Plan requires Durham Region to undertake an implementation Study. In April 2005, the Regional Planning Department identified population and employment forecasts, new urban land needs and growth management policies as part of the Durham Region Official Plan Review. In June 2005, of the Province released the Final Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The Region removed growth management and related population, employment and urban land needs policies from its recommended Official Plan Review Amendment as the Amendment was in contlict with the Provincial Plan. Subsequently, the Region engaged Urban Strategies Inc. with Watson & Associates, Economists and TSH consulting engineers to address these issues in a manner that will conform with the Provincial Growth Plan. 1.2 Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study is tailored to meet Durham's needs while also fulfilling the requirements of the Provincial Growth Plan. The Growth Plan Implementation Study has two major purposes: . to prepare policies foran acceptable growth scenario for Durham Region and its constituent local municipalities; and o to bring the Regional Official Plan into conformity with the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) as required under the Places to Grow Act; The growth scenario for Durham Region would include allocation of population and employment growth to the local municipalities in a manner that would implement Growth Plan policies on intensification in Urban Growth Centres, Intensification Corridors, Major Transit Station Areas and other built-up areas, and achievement of new higher minimum density requirements for development in Greenfield Areas (unbuilt urban lands). It would also set out whether the amount of designated urban lands could accommodate the 2()31 population and employment' forecasts in the Growth Plan, and if not, the Study would identify how much and where the new urban lands should be designated. The Region's Study has five phases of activity. The phases are outlined -in more detail on Attachment #.1 to this Report, and the main headings are listed below: 1) Understanding Issues and Priorities; 2) Growth Assessment and Scenario Development; 3) Testing of the Growth Assessment and Scenario Building; 4) Growth Assessment and Growth Scenarios Report; 5) Preferred Growth Management Options and Policy Recommendations. Repcrt PO 08-08 Ai""T'\"'.'~'\:n,." .... L ,. ij-tui,l~l~>' ,1 REPORI if PD_3..i;ji,'a.__ ;=~"(1 :al~1 1'~ ')r:ui'.>< . ~-.- oJ '..#).-. ',JV Subject: The Regien of Durham Growth Pian :, '1~) Implementation Study ....-: ! /' Page 4 The full Study process, events and milestones are detailed on Attachment #2 to this Report. The timelines are very tight. 2.0 Overview of Report Findings and Consultation 2. 1 Among other matters, the Consultant's Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report provides a 'base case' for growth in the Region, to test how close the Region would be to achieving the Growth Plan's targets generally following current trends. The Consultants have now completed the initial work for Phase 1 (Understanding Issues and Priorities) and Phase 2 (Growth Assessment and Scenario Development) of the project. The result of this work is presented in the draft report entitled, "Growing Dur~am, Growth Plan Implementation Study, Draft - Phase 1 & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis". A copy of the Draft Report can be viewed at the Planning & Development Department. Initial findings and observations from the Draft Report are that qiven current market trends and forecasts, each of the policy targets in the Growth Plan will be a challenge to achieve. The Draft Report finds that Durham Region can achieve approximately 33% intensification within the defined "built-boundary", whereas the Growth Plan requires 40% intensification. FLlrther the Draft Report shows that in Greenfield Areas, Durham Region can come very close to achieving the minimum 50 jobs and population per hectare (the analysis showed 48 jobs and persons per hectare). With respect to urban land supply for employment lands, the analysis shows a small deficit of employment lands to the year 2029 of about 50 gross hectares, With respect to residential land supply to the year 2029, the analysis suggests a deficit of about 2100 hectares, primarily for low density housing. To arrive at these "base case" findings, the Consultants had held meetings with area municipal staff, visited the area municipalities, and undertook a series of investigations and created a computer model to assess growth opportunities and constraints. The Draft Report: . CII Outlines key area municipal initiatives, opportunities and challenges; 9 Identifies Regional growth drivers, opportunities and challenges (economic, Infrastructure, market); . Presents the methodologies and assumptions used in the various streams of analysis, including: population, residential and employment forecasts; intensification analysis; employment analysis; and greenfield analysis; Report PO 08-08 u .' "1"lf:","", I,.~ ~. j-l, I.. J, l~.' L.; \. ;; . I : REPORj # PO ~ fj - 0_8_ __ __ .... Fesr'Jar/ '19, 2008 Subject The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementaticn Study Page 5 ',- c) 'J A,' : ,J /~ '", . Presents the findings of the above analyses taking into consideration supply, demand and capacity at the Regional le'lel (the forecasts etc. will be disaggregated to the area municipal level in the next phase of the Study); . Presents the preliminary results of the urban land needs assessment at the Regional level. This will be tested and, if necessary, revised in future phases as part of the detailed analysis of land needs at the area municipal level; and . Provides a discussion on the principles and assumptions, parameters and evaluation criteria for growth scenario development to be completed in the next phase of the project. 2.2 A short consultation period is being held on the Draft Report, with a deadline for comments of February 11, 2008. At its meeting on January 8, 2008, the Region of Durham Planning Committee released the consultant's draft report and initiated the consultation process for this phase. The consultation involved: . a meeting with area municipal staff on January 25, 2008; . holding an information session at the Regional Headquarters in the evening on January 29, 2008, open to the general public, agencies and/or any other interested parties; . placing notifications in newspapers throughout the Region; . launching an interactive page on the Regional website to brand the Growth Plan implementation initiative with the slogan "GROWING DURHAM - Our Future, Our Community";' D sending written notification . to all stakeholders on the ROP Review consultation list, plus any additional persons who had requested to be engaged in the Growth Plan implementation initiative; and tit meeting with staff of Provincial Ministries during the period between January 14 and 25, 2008. 2.3 The input from the consultation is to be incorporated into the Final Phase 1 &2 report and will inform the next phase of the project. City staff has recently met with the consultants on January 25, 2008, to receive a briefing on the Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report, raise questions and provide initial comments. A second meeting was held on February 5, 2008 to share ideas on development scenarios to be considered by the consultants in Phase 3 of the Study. Re~crt PO 08-08 J 3J-O@ The Region of Durham Grow'th Plan Implementation Study !~ecr:~ari 13 2fJC8 Subject: "I: '). 1 "",I.:.. Page 6 3.0 Staff Comments on the Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report: 3.1 Expand the Scope of the Study to evaluate the financial implications of Growth Scenarios: Despite the initial recommendations of Regional staff, the terms of reference adopted by Regional Council for the Growth Plan Implementation Study do not include financial impact analysis of the Growth Scenarios. Without this financial information, it is not possible for the Region of Durham, with its range of service providers, local municipalities and partner agencies such as school boards, to evaluate the financial implications related to the provision of infrastructure, facilities and services for the different Growth Scenarios. It is necessary to have this information before local municipalities can judge whether the growth that will be proposed and incorporated in the Region of Durham Official Plan, and subsequently reflected in mandated amendments to local official plans can be accommodated in an affordable manner. In addition, financial impact on other community services such as hospitals cannot" be determined. Accordingly, it is recommended that Council request the Region of Durham to expand the scope of the Growth Plan Implementation Study to include an analysis of the financial implications related to the provision of infrastructure and services necessary to support the growth scenarios. 3.2 Municipal staff should be engaged at an earlier stage of each Phase, and on an on~going basis throughout the Study. In the Durham Region Official Plan Review process, preliminary data and analysis wa$ shared with local municipal staff at each stage of its development. This permitted local staff to provide the more detailed knowledge of local conditions and fostered a consensus about the best analytic techniques to arrive at the best possible modelling of population, employment and land needs in the Region. It also allowed local staff to en~ure that technical considerations would not undermine local strategies for future growth. However, this type of collaborative process has not been followed for the Growth Plan Implementation Study, possibly due to the tight time frames for product delivery in the study Terms of Reference. Repcrt PO C8-C8 Ail' ACHMENT # t TO REPORT I PO 7. ,,:} - (l .0, '-:.:oC(' 'ar/"' G )(iC8 r _ u .... j.,JJ _r...J ...J Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Page 7 In order to achieve the benefits of a collaborative planning exercise, it is recommended that the study consultants be requested to provide earlier release of report drafts for the future phases of the Study and of the data and analysis upon which the Study results are founded. It is also requested that the raw data and data analysis for Phases 1 & 2 of the Study be provided and that the next phase of the Study not proceed until comments and 'ground-truthing' of the data can be provided to the satisfaction of Regional and local planning staffs. 3.3 Pickering's Urban Growth Centre Boundary (Figure 36 in the Draft Report) should. be revised to reflect the draft boundary established between Ministry of Infrastructure Renewal JMPIR) staff and City staff. Urban Growth Centres are an integral part of the intensification strategies in the . Provincial Growth Plan. Pickering's Urban Growth Centre is one of 25 identified in the Growth Plan across the Greater Golden Horseshoe. In Durham Region, the only other Urban Growth Centre is Oshawa. MPIR staff' have been consulting with City staff on the proposed boundary for Pickering's Urban Growth Centre. The Draft Phase 1 &2 Report shows the "Draft Proposed" boundary released by . MPIR staff to Pickering staff in the summer of 2007 for comment. City staff proposed a number of minor changes to ensure that some valley lands, highway and roadway lands would be removed, thereby reducing pressures to achieve the challenging 200 person and jobs minimum density for Urban Growth Centre development on these undevelopable lands (see Attachment #3 - Draft Proposed Scope and Scale for the Downtown Pickering Urban GroWth Centre). City staff has since received. verbal confirmation that MPIR has accepted the draft boundaries recommended by City staff. Therefore, it is requested that the phase 1 & 2 Report be revised to reflect the draft boundary established between MPIRand City staff. 3.4 The. methodology and assumptions for the analysis of available land suitable for intensification should be refined to reflect different market fon:es and opportunities for growth in different parts of the Region. . In evaluating how much intensification can be accommodated within the Region's Built-up Areas, a model was created and a series of assumptions were maqe. Staff is concerned that the base case model is too simplistic and does not reflect the complexity of this large region. As this model and its assumptions are going to be used to create and test alternate growth scenarios, it is critical that the model be refined to reflect the varying market forces and growth opportunities between the different urban areas. l ,,' :? Report PO 08-08 ATTACHMENT I r TO REPOR11 PO ~ .J... - () (~ := ,..... r: -, i a f..t -1 l-' ,-" .r t""! ,.... , :;;,,1 - I'J : ';;;I, .:.,-_uC Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan :.' ~~ Implementation Study Page 8 The methodology and assumptions for the analysis of available land suitable for intensification are discussed in Section 5.2.3, Item 3 of the draft report. (The written text for this item is confusing, and the following comments are based on the verbal clarifications from the consultants.) In Step 4, it was assumed that only 25% of "vacant", "under-construction" and "under-developed" lands in Regional Corridors would see intensified development by 2031. It was also assumed that only 50% of "vacant", "under-construction" and "under-developed" lands in Centres and Potential Activity areas would be intensified by 2031. City staff has two concerns with this. Firstly, any property just under construction now should be eliminated from redevelopment in the next twenty years. Secondly, in the Pickering/Ajax/Whitby area, staff considers the assumptions on the amount of land that may redevelop by 2031 too low; because of: - 1) the market forces and opportunities created by the identification of Pickering's Downtown as an Urban Growth Centre; 2) the greater proximity within Durham Region of Pickering/AjaxlWhitby to the large' concentrations of employment activities in Toronto arid York Region; 3) the completion of the planning for Seaton, and; 4) the anticipated construction timing of key Regional (piped and .road) and Provincial (highway) infrastructure. Finally, staff suggests that the assumptions should also be adjusted to reflect the different potentials in Oshawa/Courtice as well as in Clarington. .In Step 5 of the inteqsification analysis, the Consultants assumed that, of the vacant, under-construction and under-developed land that will redevelop by 2031, only 20% of the lands would be developed for non-residential uses in the corridors and centres. Staff consider this percentage to be too low in Pickering due to both the City's designation as an Urban Growth Centre where jobs are as important as residential, as well as the on-going demand for retail and personal service uses to serve the significant increases in population to 2031. Accordingly, it is recommended that the Region request the consultant to re-examine the model used in the base case analysis, to reflect a more refined range of development assumptions across the Region. It is critical that the . model be refined prior to completing Phase 2, so that alterative growth scenarios are developed on a more accurate basis. This approach should also lead to a more meaningful evaluation of the growth scenarios. . Repcrt PO 08-.J8 .......-".."'.,"1'111.--.. ATTACl-iM8\lT J i TO HEPOR1 # PO ~.;.l - 0 fl February 19, 2008 Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Page 9 '.) r1 /L~ Attachments: 1. Growth Plan Implementation Study - Phases of Activity 2. Growth Plan Implementation Study and ROP Amendment - Chronology of Events and Key Milestones 3. Most Recent Draft Proposed Scope & Scale of the Downtown Pickering Urban Growth Centre (established between City and MPIR staff - October 19,2007 'Prepared By: Approved/Endorsed By: I RPP ning & Development Steve Gaunt, MCIP, RPP Senior Planner ---~tJ~- . Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP Manager, Policy SG:jf Attachments Copy: Chief Administrative Officer .:'; Reco:me:::;~J:atio)~kering City Council ---->--- "- ThomasJ. 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