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HomeMy WebLinkAboutPD 08-08 REPORT TO COUNCIL , I' . L-:,O --) -" Report Number: PO 08-08 Date: February 19, 2008 From: Neil Carroll Director, Planning & Development Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Draft Phase 1 & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis Recommendation: 1. That Report PO 08-08 of the Director, Planning & Development regarding the Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study, Draft Phase 1 & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis, be received; 2. That the Region of Durham be requested to expand the scope of its Growth Plan Implementation Study to include an analysis of the financial implications related to the provision of infrastructure and services necessary to support the growth scenarios to be developed in the next phases of the Study; 3. That the Region of Durham be requested to revise the Growth Plan Implementation Study process to provide more regular on-going dialogue with local municipalities respecting the Study progress, and share raw data and analysis with local municipalities early in the process to allow for evaluation of, comment on, and issue identification, prior to report releases; and 4. That the Region of Durham be requested to direct the consultants to incorporate the following changes in the Final Phase I & 2 Report of the Growth Plan Implementation Study: a) revise the methodology and assumptions used in the "available land suitable for intensification" analysis to reflect the market forces and opportunities in play across the different parts of the Region; and b) use the most recent draft boundary for the Downtown Pickering Urban Growth Centre as established between Ministry of Public Infrastructure Renewal and City staff; and 5. Further, that the City Clerk be requested to forward a copy of Report PO 08-08 together with Council's resolution on the matter to the Region of Durham and the other area municipalities in Durham. Report PD 08-08 February 19, 2008 Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Page 2 60 Executive Summary: Consultants have been engaged by the Region of Durham to undertake a Growth Plan Implementation Study. The Study will complete the last phase of the Region's Official Plan Review and meet the requirement that the Regional Official Plan conform to the Province's Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The purpose of the Growth Plan Implementation Study is to identify a long range development scenario and growth management policies, consistent with the Growth Plan's intensification policies. Based on the population and employment forecasts for the Region, the Study will assess the need to designate additional urban area, identify the appropriate location for any required new urban land, and allocate population and employment growth to the area municipalities. Regional Planning Committee released the Draft Phase 1 & 2 report on January 8, 2008, with a request for comments from area municipalities by February 11, 2008. In light of this deadline, this Report has been prepared for direct consideration by City Council. Staff finds the scope of the Growth Plan Implementation Study to be too narrow as it does not include an analysis of the financial implications for the Region, local municipalities and other providers of infrastructure and other services and facilities. An expansion of the scope of the Study to include a financial analysis is necessary to properly evaluate the different growth scenarios. Staff also find the short notice for consultation and lack of background data and analysis render the City unable to provide timely and thorough analysis on the findings and impact of Phase 1 & 2 of the Study. With respect to the Draft Phase 1 & 2 report, two areas require revIsions. The assumptions used for the intensification analysis need to be refined to reflect Regional differences in market forces and growth opportunities in the "base case" model, so that future scenarios for growth are starting from the most appropriate assumptions. Lastly, the boundary for Pickering's Urban Growth Centre shown in Figure 36 should reflect the most recent draft boundary established by MPIR and City staff. Financial Implications: None Sustainability Implications: This Study will recommend policies for the Region of Durham to implement the Province's Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, one of the Province's recent signature policies to curb urban sprawl in the GGH and adopt sustainable development practices for future growth. Report PD 08-08 February 19, 2008 Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan , " 6 lmplementation Study Page 3 1.0 Background: 1.1 The Provincial Growth Plan requires Durham Region to undertake an implementation Study. In April 2005, the Regional Planning Department identified population and employment forecasts, new urban land needs and growth management policies as part of the Durham Region Official Plan Review. In June 2005, of the Province released the Final Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe. The Region removed growth management and related population, employment and urban land needs policies from its recommended Official Plan Review Amendment as the Amendment was in conflict with the Provincial Plan. Subsequently, the Region engaged Urban Strategies Inc. with Watson & Associates, Economists and TSH consulting engineers to address these issues in a manner that will conform with the Provincial Growth Plan. 1.2 Durham's Growth Plan Implementation Study is tailored to meet Durham's needs while also fulfilling the requirements of the Provincial Growth Plan. The Growth Plan Implementation Study has two major purposes: · to prepare policies for an acceptable growth scenario for Durham Region and its constituent local municipalities; and · to bring the Regional Official Plan into conformity with the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan) as required under the Places to Grow Act; The growth scenario for Durham Region would include allocation of population and employment growth to the local municipalities in a manner that would implement Growth Plan policies on intensification in Urban Growth Centres, Intensification Corridors, Major Transit Station Areas and other built-up areas, and achievement of new higher minimum density requirements for development in Greenfield Areas (unbuilt urban lands). It would also set out whether the amount of designated urban lands could accommodate the 2031 population and employment forecasts in the Growth Plan, and if not, the Study would identify how much and where the new urban lands should be designated. The Region's Study has five phases of activity. The phases are outlined in more detail on Attachment #1 to this Report, and the main headings are listed below: 1) Understanding Issues and Priorities; 2) Growth Assessment and Scenario Development; 3) Testing of the Growth Assessment and Scenario Building; 4) Growth Assessment and Growth Scenarios Report; 5) Preferred Growth Management Options and Policy Recommendations. Report PD 08-08 February 19, 2008 Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Page 4 (IJ .II. The full Study process, events and milestones are detailed on Attachment #2 to this Report. The timelines are very tight. 2.0 Overview of Report Findings and Consultation 2. 1 Among other matters, the Consultant's Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report provides a 'base case' for growth in the Region, to test how close the Region would be to achieving the Growth Plan's targets generally following current trends. The Consultants have now completed the initial work for Phase 1 (Understanding Issues and Priorities) and Phase 2 (Growth Assessment and Scenario Development) of the project. The result of this work is presented in the draft report entitled, "Growing Durham, Growth Plan Implementation Study, Draft - Phase 1 & 2: Summary of Understanding and Initial Analysis". A copy of the Draft Report can be viewed at the Planning & Development Department. Initial findings and observations from the Draft Report are that given current market trends and forecasts, each of the policy targets in the Growth Plan will be a challenge to achieve. The Draft Report finds that Durham Region can achieve approximately 33% intensification within the defined "built-boundary", whereas the Growth Plan requires 40% intensification. Further the Draft Report shows that in Greenfield Areas, Durham Region can come very close to achieving the minimum 50 jobs and population per hectare (the analysis showed 48 jobs and persons per hectare). With respect to urban land supply for employment lands, the analysis shows a small deficit of employment lands to the year 2029 of about 50 gross hectares. With respect to residential land supply to the year 2029, the analysis suggests a deficit of about 2100 hectares, primarily for low density housing. To arrive at these "base case" findings, the Consultants had held meetings with area municipal staff, visited the area municipalities, and undertook a series of investigations and created a computer model to assess growth opportunities and constraints. The Draft Report: . Outlines key area municipal initiatives, opportunities and challenges; · Identifies Regional growth drivers, opportunities and challenges (economic, infrastructure, market); · Presents the methodologies and assumptions used in the various streams of analysis, including: population, residential and employment forecasts; intensification analysis; employment analysis; and greenfield analysis; Report PO 08-08 February 19, 2008 Subject: 6 ~~ The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Page 5 · Presents the findings of the above analyses taking into consideration supply, demand and capacity at the Regional level (the forecasts etc. will be disaggregated to the area municipal level in the next phase of the Study); · Presents the preliminary results of the urban land needs assessment at the Regional level. This will be tested and, if necessary, revised in future phases as part of the detailed analysis of land needs at the area municipal level; and · Provides a discussion on the principles and assumptions, parameters and evaluation criteria for growth scenario development to be completed in the next phase of the project. 2.2 A short consultation period is being held on the Draft Report, with a deadline for comments of February 11, 2008. At its meeting on January 8, 2008, the Region of Durham Planning Committee released the consultant's draft report and initiated the consultation process for this phase. The consultation involved: . a meeting with area municipal staff on January 25, 2008; · holding an information session at the Regional Headquarters in the evening on January 29, 2008, open to the general public, agencies and/or any other interested parties; · placing notifications in newspapers throughout the Region; · launching an interactive page on the Regional website to brand the Growth Plan implementation initiative with the slogan "GROWING DURHAM - Our Future, Our Community"; · sending written notification to all stakeholders on the ROP Review consultation list, plus any additional persons who had requested to be engaged in the Growth Plan implementation initiative; and · meeting with staff of Provincial Ministries during the period between January 14 and 25, 2008. 2.3 The input from the consultation is to be incorporated into the Final Phase 1 & 2 report and will inform the next phase of the project. City staff has recently met with the consultants on January 25, 2008, to receive a briefing on the Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report, raise questions and provide initial comments. A second meeting was held on February 5, 2008 to share ideas on development scenarios to be considered by the consultants in Phase 3 of the Study. Report PO 08-08 February 19, 2008 Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Page 6 6 ,4 3.0 Staff Comments on the Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report: 3.1 Expand the Scope of the Study to evaluate the financial implications of Growth Scenarios: Despite the initial recommendations of Regional staff, the terms of reference adopted by Regional Council for the Growth Plan Implementation Study do not include financial impact analysis of the Growth Scenarios. Without this financial information, it is not possible for the Region of Durham, with its range of service providers, local municipalities and partner agencies such as school boards, to evaluate the financial implications related to the provision of infrastructure, facilities and services for the different Growth Scenarios. It is necessary to have this information before local municipalities can judge whether the growth that will be proposed and incorporated in the Region of Durham Official Plan, and subsequently reflected in mandated amendments to local official plans can be accommodated in an affordable manner. In addition, financial impact on other community services such as hospitals cannot be determined. Accordingly, it is recommended that Council request the Region of Durham to expand the scope of the Growth Plan Implementation Study to include an analysis of the financial implications related to the provision of infrastructure and services necessary to support the growth scenarios. 3.2 Municipal staff should be engaged at an earlier stage of each Phase, and on an on-going basis throughout the Study. In the Durham Region Official Plan Review process, preliminary data and analysis was shared with local municipal staff at each stage of its development. This permitted local staff to provide the more detailed knowledge of local conditions and fostered a consensus about the best analytic techniques to arrive at the best possible modelling of population, employment and land needs in the Region. It also allowed local staff to ensure that technical considerations would not undermine local strategies for future growth. However, this type of collaborative process has not been followed for the Growth Plan Implementation Study, possibly due to the tight time frames for product delivery in the study Terms of Reference. Report PO 08-08 February 19, 2008 . ., Subject: hE " ,J The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Page 7 In order to achieve the benefits of a collaborative planning exercise, it is recommended that the study consultants be requested to provide earlier release of report drafts for the future phases of the Study and of the data and analysis upon which the Study results are founded. It is also requested that the raw data and data analysis for Phases 1 & 2 of the Study be provided and that the next phase of the Study not proceed until comments and 'ground-truthing' of the data can be provided to the satisfaction of Regional and local planning staffs. 3.3 Pickering's Urban Growth Centre Boundary (Figure 36 in the Draft Report) should be revised to reflect the draft boundary established between Ministry of Infrastructure Renewal (MPIR) staff and City staff. Urban Growth Centres are an integral part of the intensification strategies in the Provincial Growth Plan. Pickering's Urban Growth Centre is one of 25 identified in the Growth Plan across the Greater Golden Horseshoe. In Durham Region, the only other Urban Growth Centre is Oshawa. MPIR staff have been consulting with City staff on the proposed boundary for Pickering's Urban Growth Centre. The Draft Phase 1 & 2 Report shows the "Draft Proposed" boundary released by MPIR staff to Pickering staff in the summer of 2007 for comment. City staff proposed a number of minor changes to ensure that some valley lands, highway and roadway lands would be removed, thereby reducing pressures to achieve the challenging 200 person and jobs minimum density for Urban Growth Centre development on these undevelopable lands (see Attachment #3 - Draft Proposed Scope and Scale for the Downtown Pickering Urban Growth Centre). City staff has since received verbal confirmation that MPIR has accepted the draft boundaries recommended by City staff. Therefore, it is requested that the Phase 1 & 2 Report be revised to reflect the draft boundary established between MPIR and City staff. 3.4 The methodology and assumptions for the analysis of available land suitable for intensification should be refined to reflect different market forces and opportunities for growth in different parts of the Region. In evaluating how much intensification can be accommodated within the Region's Built-up Areas, a model was created and a series of assumptions were made. Staff is concerned that the base case model is too simplistic and does not reflect the complexity of this large region. As this model and its assumptions are going to be used to create and test alternate growth scenarios, it is critical that the model be refined to reflect the varying market forces and growth opportunities between the different urban areas. Report PO 08-08 February 19, 2008 Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan Implementation Study Page 8 ~ /' o tJ The methodology and assumptions for the analysis of available land suitable for intensification are discussed in Section 5.2.3, Item 3 of the draft report. (The written text for this item is confusing, and the following comments are based on the verbal clarifications from the consultants.) In Step 4, it was assumed that only 25% of "vacant", "under-construction" and "under-developed" lands in Regional Corridors would see intensified development by 2031. It was also assumed that only 50% of "vacant", "under-construction" and "under-developed" lands in Centres and Potential Activity areas would be intensified by 2031. City staff has two concerns with this. Firstly, any property just under construction now should be eliminated from redevelopment in the next twenty years. Secondly, in the Pickering/Ajax/Whitby area, staff considers the assumptions on the amount of land that may redevelop by 2031 too low; because of: 1) the market forces and opportunities created by the identification of Pickering's Downtown as an Urban Growth Centre; 2) the greater proximity within Durham Region of Pickering/Ajax/Whitby to the large concentrations of employment activities in Toronto and York Region; 3) the completion of the planning for Seaton, and; 4) the anticipated construction timing of key Regional (piped and road) and Provincial (highway) infrastructure. Finally, staff suggests that the assumptions should also be adjusted to reflect the different potentials in Oshawa/Courtice as well as in Clarington. In Step 5 of the intensification analysis, the Consultants assumed that, of the vacant, under-construction and under-developed land that will redevelop by 2031, only 20% of the lands would be developed for non-residential uses in the corridors and centres. Staff consider this percentage to be too low in Pickering due to both the City's designation as an Urban Growth Centre where jobs are as important as residential, as well as the on-going demand for retail and personal service uses to serve the significant increases in population to 2031. Accordingly, it is recommended that the Region request the consultant to re-examine the model used in the base case analysis, to reflect a more refined range of development assumptions across the Region. It is critical that the model be refined prior to completing Phase 2, so that alterative growth scenarios are developed on a more accurate basis. This approach should also lead to a more meaningful evaluation of the growth scenarios. Report PO 08-08 February 19, 2008 Subject: The Region of Durham Growth Plan 6 7 Implementation Study Page 9 Attachments: 1. Growth Plan Implementation Study - Phases of Activity 2. Growth Plan Implementation Study and ROP Amendment - Chronology of Events and Key Milestones 3. Most Recent Draft Proposed Scope & Scale of the Downtown Pickering Urban Growth Centre (established between City and MPIR staff - October 19, 2007 Prepared By: Approved/Endorsed By: Steve Gaunt, MCIP, RPP Senior Planner , RPP nning & Development ~/J~ Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP Manager, Policy SG:jf Attachments Copy: Chief Administrative Officer Recommended for the consideration of Pickering City Council Thomas J. Quinn, RDMR, CMM III Chief Administrative Officer F' -~.......,"""_:~.. I f~,' Fj -Q g 6B Growth Plan Implementation Study - Phases of Activity The Growth Plan Implementation Study will be undertaken in five phases, as follows: Phase 1: Understanding Issues and Priorities Phase 1 includes: a thorough review of all relevant local, regional and provincial documents, mapping and data sets; and initial consultation with area municipal staff and other stakeholders to identify issues and priorities. Phase 2: Growth Assessment and Scenario Development Phase 2 includes: preliminary analysis of employment need/land supply, intensification and greenfield development; and development of growth scenario principles, assumptions, parameters and evaluation criteria. A key component of this phase includes the development of visualization tools to assess the intensification targets and development implications of growth scenarios for presentation to the area municipal partners, agencies and the public. The results of Phases 1 and 2 were presented to Regional Planning Committee on January 8, 2008, followed by consultation with the area municipal partners, agencies and the public. Phase 3: Testing of the Growth Assessment and Scenario Building Phase 3 includes: an examination of the growth analysis; the building of alternative scenarios to explore the most appropriate future growth path for the Region; and a more comprehensive assessment of urban land needs. The results of Phase 3 will be presented to Regional Planning Committee on March 11, 2008, followed by consultation with the area municipal partners, agencies and the public. Phase 4: Growth Assessment and Growth Scenarios Report Phase 4 includes: the finalization of the growth assessment; preparation of draft recommendations; and the development of a draft preferred growth scenario for the Region, to be presented to Regional Planning Committee on June 3, 2008, followed by consultation with the area municipal partners, agencies and the pubic. Phase 5: Preferred Growth Management Option and Policy Recommendations Phase 5 includes the development of a preferred growth management option and policy recommendations for the Regional Official Plan to implement the preferred option, which will be presented to Regional Planning Committee on September 23, 2008. (Adapted from Attachment 1 to Regional Commissioner of Planning Report 2008-P-1) r' q 0/ ...;.)' i-'L' Growth Plan Implementation Study and ROP Amendment Chronology of Events I Key Milestones Date Details Growth PIa 1"1 1m plementCl~icujStudy January 8/08 Urban Strategies Inc. (USI) attended Planning Committee and (Planning Committee) presented Ph 1 &2 Report January 25/08 Met with area municipalities to discuss Ph 1 &2 Report January 29/08 Report to Planning Committee on key events / milestones (Planning Committee) January 29/08 Public Information Session - RoD HQ - 6 to 9 p.rn. February 5/08 Met with area municipalities to discuss Scenario Definitions as input to the development of Growth Scenarios February 11/08 Deadline for all comments on Ph 1 &2 Report - 30 day review period from release on January 8 March 11/08 USI to attend Planning Committee and present Ph 1 &2 (Planning Committee) Refinements and Scenario Definitions Working Paper - No formal public engagement April 29/08 Early Release of Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Option Working Paper - 30 day review period (May 29) May 13/08 USI to attend Planning Committee and present Scenario (Planning Committee) Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Growth Option Working Paper - Meeting will be advertised to all stakeholders May 15 - 16/08 Meet with area municipalities to discuss Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Option Working Paper May 29/08 Deadline for comments on Scenario Evaluation and Recommended Preferred Option Working Paper - 30 day review period from early release April 29 July 21 - 30/08 Meet with MPIR/MMAH to discuss proposed refinements to (following mtg. with preferred growth option and initial directions for policy area municipalities) recommendations - to be scheduled