HomeMy WebLinkAboutPLN 32-23Report to
Planning & Development Committee
Report Number: PLN 32-23
Date: November 6, 2023
From: Kyle Bentley
Director, City Development & CBO
Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022)
-File: D-1400-018
Recommendation:
1.That Council receive the Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022), contained in
Appendix I to Report PLN 32-23, for information.
Executive Summary: This report provides an overview of the Strategic Growth Areas
Monitoring Report (2022) (Growth Monitoring Report) prepared by City staff.
The main objective of the annual Strategic Growth Area Monitoring Report is to track changes
in population and employment within the City Centre and the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node.
Financial Implications: The recommendations of this report do not present any financial
implications to the City of Pickering.
Discussion:
1.Purpose
The purpose of this report is to summarize and introduce the findings contained in the
Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022), contained in Appendix I to Report
PLN 32-23.
2.Background
2.1 Growth Monitoring Report Initiation
In January 2022, Council directed staff to prepare an annual report that would monitor
the growth and changes in population and employment within the City Centre, and the
Kingston Corridor and the Brock Node Intensification Areas (the City’s Strategic Growth
Areas, as defined in the Province of Ontario’s Growth Plan). The Strategic Growth Area
Monitoring Report (2022) fulfills this direction of Council. Data within the report is up to
December 1, 2022.
PLN 32-23
Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022)
November 6, 2023
Page 2
2.2 Strategic Growth Area Monitoring Report (2022) Process
The Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) consists of two parts:
•Part 1: Results for the City Centre; and
•Part 2: Results for the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node.
Various City data sources were used to inform the Growth Monitoring Report (2022),
including:
•the City of Pickering Map Portal, Development Activity Map;
•the Detailed 20-Year Population Forecast, prepared by City Development; and
•Development Application files.
Persons-per-unit ratios from the Detailed 20-Year Population Forecast were used to
inform future population totals. In addition, sample commercial and employment data
was collected through direct observation, and measurement during the months of July
and August of 2022. The collected data was used as a comparison to the calculated
estimates for number of jobs.
No data sets from the Region of Durham were used in this study. The City sources
listed above provided the most current and accurate data available.
2.3 Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022) Context
From application submission to final construction, development can take several years
to complete, and is dependent upon many factors, including availability of municipal
services, as well as favourable market conditions. The following estimates are based on
both new applications still under review, and approved applications, some of which are
already under construction. These estimates did not consider any development
scenarios or market dynamics, that could have an impact on the timing, number, type,
or tenure of development.
As this is the first year of tracking existing and proposed development in the City Centre
and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Areas, it is not yet possible to identify
trends or patterns in development. Future reporting will be able to provide greater
analysis from the collection of additional data over time.
This report does not contain policy recommendations. However, the empirical data
contained in this, and subsequent reports, may influence future Council decisions and
inform future land use policy changes.
3.Results
3.1 City Centre
In addition to being a Strategic Growth Area, the City Centre is further identified as an
Urban Growth Centre by A Place to Grow: Growth Plan for the Greater Golden
Horseshoe (the Growth Plan). These are regional focal points that are planned to
accommodate significant population and employment growth.
PLN 32-23
Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022)
November 6, 2023
Page 3
The population within City Centre, as of December 1, 2022, is estimated to be 5,980
(2,785 residential units of which 407 were constructed in the past 10 years). Including
both new applications still under review, and approved applications (some of which are
already under construction), the population of the City Centre could increase to
approximately 32,215 people (17,265 units).
Table 1: Total Units & Population in the City Centre – Past, Present, and Future
2013 (built) 2022 (built) Future (approved and
open applications)
Units 2,378 2,785 17,265
Population 4,969 5,980 32,215
Over the previous 10 years (2013-2022), the commercial gross floor area in the City
Centre dropped due to the demolition of the Sears wing of the Pickering Town Centre.
The commercial gross floor area within the City Centre, as of December 1, 2022, is
199,035 square metres (approximately 5,925 jobs). If all current applications were
approved by Council and constructed, both new and approved development applications
could increase this number to 206,528 square metres (approximately 6,127 jobs).
Table 2: Commercial Gross Floor Area (GFA) and Jobs in the City Centre – Past,
Present, and Future
2013 (built) 2022 (built) Future (approved and
open applications)
Commercial
GFA
214,302
square metres
199,035
square metres
206,528
square metres
Jobs 6,337 5,925 6,127
3.2 Kingston Corridor/Brock Node
The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Area is a Strategic Growth Area, as
defined by the Growth Plan. These areas are planned to accommodate intensification
and higher-density development.
The population within the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, as of December 1, 2022, is
estimated to be 1,065 people (425 units of which 92 units were constructed in the past
10 years). Both newly received and recently approved development applications could
increase this number to 23,065 residents (12,230 units).
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Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022)
November 6, 2023
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Table 3: Total Units & Population in the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node – Past, Present,
and Future
2013 (built) 2022 (built) Future (approved and
open applications)
Units 333 425 12,230
Population 790 1,065 23,065
The commercial gross floor area within the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, as of
December 1, 2022, is 229,473 square metres (approximately 6,238 jobs). The
development proposals being considered in this area would replace existing, low-rise
commercial plazas with high-rise, residential and mixed-use buildings. Although new
commercial floor space will be constructed within mixed-use buildings, new and
approved development applications could decrease the commercial gross floor area
within the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node to 173,221 square metres (approximately
4,718 jobs).
Table 4: Commercial Gross Floor Area in the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node – Past,
Present, and Future
2013 (built) 2022 (built) Future (approved and
open applications)
Commercial
GFA
228,707
square metres
229,473
square metres
173,221
square metres
Jobs 6,217 6,238 4,718
4.Conclusion
The City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Areas will experience
a significant increase in population in the coming years. This increase of approximately
48,235 residents (26,285 units) will form part of the City of Pickering’s forecasted
population growth of an additional 153,500 residents by 2051, as set by the Region of
Durham. The built form that is proposed to accommodate this increase of population in
the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node will predominantly be apartment
units, with a small number of row houses.
Based on both new and approved development applications, the combined commercial
gross floor area in the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node is expected to
decrease overall by approximately 48,759 square metres.
PLN 32-23
Subject: Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report (2022)
November 6, 2023
Page 5
Staff will continue to provide annual updates on newly completed and occupied
developments, along with new development applications, within the City’s Strategic
Growth Areas.
Staff recommends that Council receive the Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report
(2022).
Appendix:
Appendix I Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report, December 2022
Prepared By:
Original Signed By
Paul Wirch, RPP
Principal Planner, Policy
Original Signed By
Déan Jacobs, MCIP, RPP
Manager, Policy & Geomatics
Approved/Endorsed By:
Original Signed By
Catherine Rose, MCIP, RPP
Chief Planner
Original Signed By
Kyle Bentley, P. Eng.
Director, City Development & CBO
PW:ld
Recommended for the consideration
of Pickering City Council
Original Signed By
Marisa Carpino, M.A.
Chief Administrative Officer
Appendix I to
Report PLN 32-23
Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report, February 2023
pickering.ca
Strategic Growth Areas
Monitoring Report
February 2023
Strategic Growth Areas Monitoring Report
As of December 1, 2022
1
Contents
1.0 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3
2.0 Background ..................................................................................................................................................................... 3
2.1 City Centre ................................................................................................................................................................... 3
2.2 Kingston Corridor/Brock Node ..................................................................................................................................... 4
2.3 Past Development Conditions (2013-2022) ................................................................................................................. 5
3.0 Report Highlights ............................................................................................................................................................. 7
4.0 The City Centre ............................................................................................................................................................... 8
5.0 The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Area .................................................................................................. 8
6.0 Data Collection ................................................................................................................................................................ 9
6.1 Residential ................................................................................................................................................................... 9
6.2 Commercial.................................................................................................................................................................. 9
6.3 Sources and Methodology ......................................................................................................................................... 10
6.4 Context ...................................................................................................................................................................... 10
7.0 Results .......................................................................................................................................................................... 11
7.1 City Centre ................................................................................................................................................................. 12
7.1.1 Residential .......................................................................................................................................................... 13
7.1.2 Commercial ......................................................................................................................................................... 16
7.1.3 Conclusion: City Centre ...................................................................................................................................... 18
7.2. Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Results ..................................................................................................................... 19
7.2.1 Residential .......................................................................................................................................................... 20
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7.2.2 Commercial ......................................................................................................................................................... 29
7.2.3 Conclusion: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node ......................................................................................................... 31
8.0 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Appendix I – Definitions ....................................................................................................................................................... 33
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1.0 Introduction
Over the past few years, the City of Pickering has been experiencing pressure to permit the redevelopment of properties
within the City Centre and the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node. While the applications received to date align with the vision
for these areas, the overall number and scale of these proposals represents a significant change to the existing built form
and density/land use intensity.
The City Centre, previously referred to as “Downtown Pickering”, is identified as an Urban Growth Centre in the Provincial
Growth Plan. The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Area (Kingston Corridor/Brock Node) is designated as a
Regional Corridor by the Region of Durham and as Mixed Corridor and Specialty Retailing Node in the Pickering Official
Plan. As a key focus area for intensification, the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node can be regarded as a Strategic Growth
Area, as defined by the Provincial Growth Plan. Lands with these designations will be planned to accommodate significant
population and employment growth supported by regional transit connections. The City Centre and the Kingston
Corridor/Brock Node are intended to have the widest variety of uses, activity, and density in the City, with the greatest mix
and intensity of uses being directed to the City Centre. The transformation of these areas is expected to create walkable,
transit-supportive areas that combine residential living and employment spaces within mixed-use buildings or on mixed-use
sites. These areas are forecast to grow by a minimum of 26,285 residential units resulting in a population increase of
approximately 48,235 residents. The redevelopment of existing retail spaces in these areas will lead to a reduction in the
overall commercial gross floor area by 56,252 square metres (approximately 1,520 jobs).
The main objective of the Growth Monitoring Report is to track changes in population and employment within the City
Centre and the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node. Information to be tracked includes:
•Number of existing and proposed residential units according to type; and
•Amount of existing and proposed commercial floor space and jobs.
2.0 Background
2.1 City Centre
In 2013, City Council endorsed a new vision for the City Centre. The vision consisted of three broad components:
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•Ensuring an appropriate land use framework is in place to facilitate redevelopment and intensification;
•Working with senior levels of government and utilities to ensure required infrastructure is in place; and
•Working with downtown landowners and potential investors to attract desirable investment.
The study, “A Vision for Intensification and Framework for Investment”, was released in June 2013, and resulted in the
adoption of Official Plan Amendment 26 (OPA 26). In March 2015, the Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) approved OPA 26
with minor policy modifications. In April 2017, Pickering Council approved the City Centre Zoning By-law 7553/17.
Following a subsequent appeal to the OMB, the By-law was finally approved by the OMB in February 2018.
The City Centre Zoning By-law amended Zoning By-laws 3036 and 2511, and removed all of the lands within the City
Centre from these parent by-laws, and created a new stand-alone zoning by-law. The City Centre Zoning By-law:
•contains new zoning categories;
•permits a broad range of uses;
•includes new development standards to regulate the size, location, massing, and height of buildings;
•identifies minimum and maximum density provisions; and
•creates new vehicle and bicycle parking standards.
2.2 Kingston Corridor/Brock Node
In 2015, Phase 1 of the South Pickering Intensification Study was initiated to look beyond the City Centre and investigate
strategic directions for future growth and intensification opportunities in the remaining neighbourhoods in South Pickering.
It concluded that the Kingston Corridor should be the main area for intensification within the City, second only to the City
Centre. Following extensive community consultation and engagement, the South Pickering Intensification Study
concluded with the following priorities for development and redevelopment:
•direct intensification to local and regional corridors;
•maintain stable neighbourhoods; and
•improve the mix of uses, walkability and quality of design in the intensification areas.
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In 2017, Phase 2 of the Study (the Kingston Road Corridor and Specialty Retailing Node Intensification Study) was
initiated, which concluded in December 2019 with Council’s endorsement in principle of an Intensification Plan for the
Kingston Road Corridor and Specialty Retailing Node Intensification Study Areas. The Intensification Plan informed the
preparation of Official Plan Amendment 38 (OPA 38), which was adopted by Council in January 2022, and later approved
by the Region of Durham in October 2022. OPA 38 has been appealed to the Ontario Land Tribunal, and no date has yet
been set for the hearing.
Also, in January 2022, Council directed staff to prepare an annual report that would monitor the growth and changes
within the City Centre and the Kingston Corridor and the Brock Node Intensification Areas. This Growth Monitoring Report
fulfills this direction of Council.
2.3 Past Development Conditions (2013-2022)
In the City Centre, from 2013 – 2022, the City granted Site Plan Approval for 1,463 apartment units and 232 multiples1.
During that same period, building permits were issued for 1,239 apartment units, of which 175 apartment units were
constructed and granted occupancy. 232 multiple units were also constructed during that same period and 9,199 square
metres of commercial gross floor area (GFA) was built (see Table 1). 25,232 square metres of commercial GFA was
demolished over the same period, causing a net decrease of 15,267 square metres of commercial GFA from 2013-2022.
In the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, from 2013 – 2022, the City granted Site Plan Approval and issued building permits
for 227 apartment units and 222 rowhouse units. During that same period, 92 multiple units were granted occupancy, and
766 square metres of commercial (GFA) was built (see Table 1).
1 See definitions contained in Appendix I
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Table 1: Approval and Construction of Residential Units and Commercial GFA between 2013-2022 (square metres)
2013-20222 Site Plan
Approval
Building Permits
Issued
Construction Completed
and Occupancy Granted Commercial GFA Built
City Centre 1,559 1,239 407 9,199
Kingston Corridor/Brock Node 449 449 92 766
2 Developments included in this count start from Site Plan Approvals, Building Permits, and Occupancy granted in 2013 until 2022. Many of these
applications may have commenced prior to 2013.
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3.0 Report Highlights
There are approximately 2,785 existing residential units in the City Centre, of which 407 were constructed in the past 10
years. There are approximately 425 existing residential units in the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, of which 92 were
constructed in the past 10 years. Based on both new development applications and approved development applications,
up to December 1, 2022, an estimated 26,300 new housing units are proposed to be created in the City Centre and
Kingston Corridor/Brock Node. This new housing will comprise approximately 25,550 apartment units, 525 multiples and
225 row house units. Of the 26,300 new housing units proposed, approximately 230 are proposed to be purpose built
rental units (see Table 2).
Table 2: Existing and Proposed Residential Units: City Centre and Kingston Road/Brock Node3
Existing Proposed Total Ownership Rental
3,210 26,060 230 29,490
It is estimated that there is 428,510 square metres of existing commercial floor space in the City Centre and Kingston
Corridor/Brock Node. Based on current and approved development applications, the current commercial gross floor area
would decrease to approximately 379,750 square metres (see Table 3). This could result in a potential displacement of an
estimated 1,380 jobs within the growth monitoring areas.
The form of development being proposed for the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node will result in the
replacement of existing plazas and strip malls with at-grade commercial spaces located at the bottom of mixed-use
buildings.
Table 3: Existing and Proposed Commercial Floor Space: City Centre and Kingston Road/Brock Node (square metres)
Existing Proposed Net
428,510 379,750 -48,760
3 Existing and proposed residential data comes from the Pickering Development Portal.
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4.0 The City Centre
As an Urban Growth Centre, the City Centre is the highest-order intensification area within Pickering and must be planned
to achieve a density target of 200 residents and jobs combined per hectare4. Based on the number of existing residents
and jobs, as well as approved and proposed development applications, people and jobs within the City Centre represents
a gross density of over 260 residents and jobs combined per hectare.
Data for the City Centre intensification area is subdivided into City Centre North and City Centre South. These data-sets
correspond to areas of the City Centre that are respectively north and south of Highway 401. The Pickering Official Plan
establishes a limit on residential development in the City Centre south of Highway 401 prior to 2031 with the aim of
achieving a balance of growth north and south of Highway 4015. The policy states that new residential development in
City Centre South is restricted to 6,300 people, or 3,400 units, until an additional 2,000 people or 1,100 new units have
been developed on lands north of Highway 401 in the City Centre. Based on current development applications and the
rate of redevelopment, it is anticipated that, by 2031, the caps for people and units in City Centre South will not have been
reached, and therefore, there may not be a need to implement the restrictions established in City Policy 12.10K(b).
5.0 The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Intensification Area
The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node permits higher residential densities of between 30-180 dwellings per net hectare6. As a
Strategic Growth Area, the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node is a key focus for development.
Data for the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node is subdivided into the following precincts:
• Rougemount;
• Whites;
• Dunbarton/Liverpool; and
• Brock.
These precincts were established through the Kingston Corridor and Specialty Retailing Node Intensification Plan
(November 2019).
4 A Place to Grow, Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, 2020.
5 See Pickering Official Plan Policy 12.10K (b).
6 Pickering Official Plan, Table 6.
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6.0 Data Collection
Data was collected on the number, type, and tenure of existing and proposed residential units along with the existing and
proposed amount of commercial GFA.
6.1 Residential
The existing number of residential units is based on data collected from the Pickering Development Portal and the
forecast number of residential units is based on submitted development applications. Development applications include:
• Open Applications7 – Development applications received by the City that are still being reviewed; and
• Approved Applications8 – Includes developments that have been approved but have not yet begun construction, as
well as approved developments that have begun construction but have not yet been completed and occupied.
Pre-consultation proposals have not been included in the residential and commercial forecast since they are conceptual in
nature, and subject to change, before being submitted as formal development applications.
6.2 Commercial
The commercial data collected includes the existing and proposed commercial GFA, as well as an estimate of existing and
proposed jobs. Proposed commercial GFA is based on new and approved applications received up to December 1, 2022.
Existing job estimates are based on the following two ratios:
• 1 job for every 37 square metres of GFA for general commercial properties. General commercial properties include
retail uses, restaurants and grocery stores; and
• 1 job for every 23.25 square metres of GFA for office properties. Office properties include both major office buildings
and small offices, such as health practitioners and professional services (finance, insurance, real estate, etc.)9.
7 All applications submitted up to December 1 of 2022 are used in this data collection.
8 All applications approved up to December 1 of 2022 are used in this data collection.
9 The ratios referenced are based on industry standards provided by the City of Pickering Economic Development & Strategic Projects.
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Future job estimates are based on GFA included in development applications using the more conservative general
commercial ratio of 1 job for every 37 square metres of GFA.
An in-person survey was conducted to ground-truth actual employment data for the study area. This survey data was then
compared to the ratios referenced above. This comparison resulted in similar findings between ground-truth employment
data collected, and the employment data estimated from the referenced ratios.
6.3 Sources and Methodology
Various City data sources were used to inform the Growth Monitoring Report, including:
• the City of Pickering Map Portal, Development Activity Map (up to December 1, 2022);
• the Detailed 20-Year Population Forecast (December 2021); and
• Development Application files.
Persons-per-unit ratios from the Detailed 20-Year Population Forecast were used to forecast future population totals. In
addition, sample commercial and employment data was collected through direct observation and measurement during the
months of July and August of 2022. The collected data was used as a comparison to the calculated estimates for number
of jobs.
6.4 Context
The City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node consists of 128 properties. Not all properties within this area are
expected to redevelop over time. Beyond the development applications that have already been approved or are still under
review, the City is expected to see interest in the redevelopment of additional properties in the future. As a result, the
forecasts contained in this report are reflective of a point in time. The intent of this report is to provide information about
current conditions and forecasts, and provide the basis for ongoing reporting in the future.
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7.0 Results
From application submission to final construction, development can take several years to complete and is dependent
upon many factors from availability of municipal services to favourable market conditions. The following estimates are
based on all new, and approved applications, being constructed.
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7.1 City Centre
The City Centre Neighbourhood, shown in Figure 1 below, is Provincially designated as an Urban Growth Centre. The
neighbourhood is divided by Highway 401 into the areas known as City Centre North and City Centre South.
Figure 1: Map of the City Centre
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7.1.1 Residential
There are an estimated 2,785 existing units within City Centre North which results in an existing population of
approximately 5,980 residents10. New and approved applications propose an additional 11,630 units for City Centre North,
resulting in an estimated 21,100 additional residents (see Table 4).11
Table 4: City Centre North Residential Units / Population
Existing Proposed Total
Units Population Units Population Units Population
2,785 5,980 11,630 21,100 14,415 27,080
There are no existing residential units in City Centre South12. New and approved applications propose an estimated 2,850
units in City Centre South (all apartment units), resulting in approximately 5,135 additional residents (see Table 5).
Table 5: City Centre South Residential Units / Population
Existing Proposed Total
Units Population Units Population Units Population
0 0 2,850 5,135 2,850 5,135
10 These population estimates are based on 3 persons per unit for Detached, Semi-Detached, Row house, and Multiple units, and 1.8 persons per
unit for apartment units.
11 These estimates are rounded totals.
12 NB: Partial occupancy for Universal City 1 (Residential tower in City Centre South) occurred after the data collection and therefore are not
counted as existing residential units.
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Figure 2: City Centre Residential Units – Existing and Proposed
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
CC North CC South
Existing Proposed
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Based on complete build out of all new and approved applications, the predominant built form within the City Centre will
be apartment units (94%) (see Table 6). These units will house 91% of the population in the City Centre, (see Table 7).
Table 6: Forecasted Change in Residential Units by Type13
Existing
Existing
and
Proposed
Net
Change
City Centre North
Apartment 1,981 13,476 11,495
Multiple 412 492 80
Row House 343 398 55
Semi-Detached 4 4 0
Single Detached 46 46 0
City Centre South
Apartment 0 2,852 2,852
Multiple 0 0 0
Row House 0 0 0
Semi-Detached 0 0 0
Single Detached 0 0 0
Total 2,786 17,268 14,482
13 The definitions of all residential types can be found in Appendix I.
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Table 7: Forecasted Population in City Centre
CC North CC South
Units Population Units Population
Apartments 13,476 24,257 2,852 5,133
Multiple 492 1,476 0 0
Row house 398 1,194 0 0
Semi-detached 4 12 0 0
Detached 46 138 0 0
Total 14,416 27,077 2,852 5,133
Residential data regarding affordable housing in the City Centre is contained in the Annual Housing Monitoring Report.
7.1.2 Commercial
The City Centre currently has approximately 199,035 square metres of commercial GFA with an estimated 5,925 jobs
(see Table 8). These numbers are divided into City Centre North with 156,746 square metres of GFA and 4,780 jobs and
City Centre South with 42,289 square metres of GFA and 1,145 jobs (see Table 9).
Based on new and approved applications, redeveloped properties will result in a net increase in commercial GFA of
approximately 5,668 square metres and 153 new jobs to City Centre North and an increase of approximately 1,825
square metres of commercial GFA and 49 new jobs to City Centre South by 2031. The combined amount for the entire
City Centre (North and South), will be an estimated 7,493 square metres of new commercial GFA with the addition of
approximately 202 jobs (see Figure 3).
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Table 8: City Centre Commercial GFA Forecast (square metres)
City Centre
GFA Jobs
Existing Future Existing Future
199,035 206,528 5,925 6,127
Table 9: City Centre North and City Centre South Commercial GFA Forecast (square meters)
City Centre
North
City Centre
South
Year GFA Jobs GFA Jobs
Existing 156,746 4,780 42,289 1,145
Future 162,414 4,933 44,114 1,194
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Figure 3: City Centre Commercial Gross Floor Area Forecast (square metres)
7.1.3 Conclusion: City Centre
The City Centre is anticipated to experience significant residential growth in the coming years (an estimated 14,500 new
units). This growth will coincide with an overall increase in the amount of commercial floor area.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
CC North CC South
Existing Future
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7.2. Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Results
Figure 4: A map of the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node and its four precincts.
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7.2.1 Residential
There are an estimated 425 existing units within Kingston Corridor/Brock Node which results in an existing population of
approximately 1,065 residents (see Table 10). New and approved applications propose an additional 11,805 units for
Kingston Corridor/Brock Node, resulting in an estimated 22,000 additional residents.14 68% of the new population
expected in the Kingston Corridor/Brock Node (8,025 units and approximately 14,665 new residents15) comes from
applications received within the Brock Node.
Table 10: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node – Residential Units and Population16
Existing Proposed Total
Units Population Units Population Units Population
425 1,065 11,805 22,000 12,230 23,065
Table 11: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node – Forecasted Change in Residential Units by Type
Existing
Existing
and
Proposed
Net
Change
Apartment 168 11,352 11,184
Multiple 139 579 440
Row House 101 283 182
Semi-Detached 0 0 0
Single Detached 16 16 0
TOTAL 424 12,230 11,806
14 These estimates are rounded totals.
15 These estimates are based on 3 persons per unit for Detached, Semi-Detached, Row house, and Multiple units, and 1.8 persons per unit for
apartment units.
16 Estimates contained in this Table are rounded totals.
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Figure 5: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Residential Units – Existing and Proposed
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Kingston Corridor/Brock Node
Existing Proposed
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Figure 6: Rougemount Precinct
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Table 12: Rougemount Precinct Residential Forecast
Apartment Multiple Rowhouse Semi-
Detached Detached Total
Existing Units 105 47 30 0 0 182
Proposed Units 580 0 0 0 0 580
Total Units 685 47 30 0 0 762
Total Population 1,233 141 90 0 0 1,464
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Figure 7: Whites Precinct.
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Table 13: Whites Precinct Residential Forecast
Apartment Multiple Rowhouse Semi-
Detached Detached Total
Existing Units 63 92 30 0 15 200
Proposed Units 2,759 440 0 0 0 3,199
Total Units 2,822 532 30 0 15 3,399
Total Population 5,080 1,596 90 0 45 6,811
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Figure 8: Dunbarton/Liverpool Precinct.
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Table 14: Dunbarton/Liverpool Precinct Residential Forecast
Apartment Multiple Rowhouse Semi-
Detached Detached Total
Existing Units 0 0 41 0 0 41
Proposed Units 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Units 0 0 41 0 0 41
Total Population 0 0 123 0 0 123
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Figure 9: Brock Precinct.
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Table 15: Brock Precinct Residential Forecast
Apartment Multiple Rowhouse Semi-
Detached Detached Total
Existing Units 0 0 0 0 0 0
Proposed Units 7,845 0 182 0 0 8,027
Total Units 7,845 0 182 0 0 8,027
Total Population 14,121 0 546 0 0 14,667
7.2.2 Commercial
The Kingston Corridor/Brock Node has 229,473 square metres of existing commercial GFA, generating an estimated
6,238 jobs in the area (see Table 16).
Based on current development applications, 97,552 square metres of existing commercial GFA is proposed to be
redeveloped into mixed use buildings containing a combination of residential units (predominantly above the ground floor)
and approximately 41,300 square metres of commercial GFA (generally on the ground floor). Redeveloping this area with
a mix of uses, as proposed by current development applications, will result in an overall loss of 56,252 square metres of
commercial GFA and the loss of an estimated 1,520 jobs (see Figure 10).
Table 16: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Commercial Forecast
Kingston Corridor/Brock Node
GFA Jobs
Existing Future %
Decrease Existing Future %
Decrease
229,473 173,221 25% 6,238 4,718 25%
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Table 17: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Commercial Forecast by Precinct
Rougemount
Precinct
Whites
Precinct
Dunbarton / Liverpool
Precinct
Brock
Precinct
GFA Jobs GFA Jobs GFA Jobs GFA Jobs
Existing 15,611 423 57,780 1,562 64,864 1,789 91,218 2,465
Future 14,332 388 49,242 1,331 64,864 1,790 44,783 1,210
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Figure 10: Kingston Corridor/Brock Node Commercial Gross Floor Area Forecast (square metres)
7.2.3 Conclusion: Kingston Corridor / Brock Node
The existing low-rise commercial plazas and homes along the Kingston Corridor are expected to redevelop at higher
densities in the years to come. This is in keeping with Provincial and Regional policy as well as the Pickering Official Plan
which identifies Kingston Corridor/Brock Node as an intensification area.
Based on proposed and newly approved development applications, new construction will result in a significant increase of
new apartments (from 168 to 11,352) and a 25% reduction in overall commercial floor space.
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Existing Proposed
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8.0 Conclusion
The Region of Durham forecasts that Pickering’s population will grow by an additional 153,500 residents by 205117. A
significant amount of that growth is expected to occur within the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node
Intensification Areas. Based on new and approved applications, the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock Node are
forecast to provide spaces for approximately 48,235 new residents (26,285 new units).
Based on current development applications, the commercial gross floor area in the City Centre and Kingston
Corridor/Brock Node is proposed to decrease by approximately 48,759 square metres. This represents an 11% reduction
in commercial gross floor area across both intensification areas.
The estimates contained in this report are based on best available data. These estimates did not consider any
development scenarios or market dynamics that could have an impact on the timing, number, type, or tenure of
development.
As this is the first year of tracking existing and proposed development in the City Centre and Kingston Corridor/Brock
Node Intensification Areas, it is not yet possible to identify trends or patterns in development. Future reporting will be able
to provide greater analysis from the collection of additional data over time.
This report does not contain policy recommendations. However, the empirical data contained in this and subsequent
reports may influence future Council decisions and inform future land use policy changes.
City Development also prepared an Annual Housing Monitoring Report that provided a broader perspective on housing
affordability across all of Pickering.
17 Envision Durham – Growth Management Study, Phase 2: Draft Settlement Area Boundary Expansions and Area Municipal Growth Allocations,
2022.
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Appendix I – Definitions18
Apartment: applies to units not covered by the above categories, including those in apartment buildings (high rise and
low rise), and those located in mixed use buildings.
Detached House: residential structure containing one dwelling which is completely separated on all sides from any other
dwelling or structure. Examples include: bungalows, split-level houses, one and a half storey houses, two storey houses
and link homes.
Other Multiples: cover duplexes, triplexes, stacked townhouses, maisonettes and other residential structures containing
up to five units.
Row house: ground-oriented dwellings attached to two or more similar units so that the resulting row structure contains
three or more units. Fourplexes are also classified as row housing.
Semi-Detached House: a dwelling that is physically connected with one other dwelling. There is no means of internal
access from one dwelling to the next. The physical connection is vertical and must be above-ground, and may consist of a
common wall separating the two dwellings; a common wall separating the garages attached to each dwelling; or a
physical connection between the carports attached to each residential structure.
18 Definitions of residential types are from the City of Pickering Map Portal.